Proactive Structural Strategic China/GLobalFund Risk Management China/Global oil, gas ,housing industry market fundamental mechanism, risks Early Warning Operations Simulation Analysis (OSA)

中國石油天然氣上下游基金投資風險管理策略

Monetary, Economic, Fiscal Policy Impact on China/Global Macro-economic Control, Oil, Gas, Housing demand, prices

Mechanism and Investment Risks Simulation/Forecasts

Warren Huang ( 黃華南博士 ) ,Ph D,Founder/CEOOSA Global Strategic Management

wh3928@yahoo.com/ osawhh@sina.com

Revision for China Fund World , Pudong Conference, March 5,2008

Lecture Summary Proactive Structural Risks Mechanism Operations Simulation Analysis

OSA Methodology: Two master hands controlling last 20 years Global energy,housing,asset price bubble burst Mechanism, Allocation Fund Risks early warning

1. China/Global Country Risks : Macro economic control, housing bubble burst, mortgage crisis policy impact on inflation, recession, interest rates analysis 2. Currency Risks: Interest rate, trade surplus impact on RMB, global currency market forces mechanism, currency crisis forecasts 3. Credit Risks: Oil, gas, China/Foreign players cash flow, profits, housing price bubble burst impact on credit rating and loan defaults risk4. Operational Risks: All phases of oil, gas, power, banking, finance, daily trading, profit performance risks reporting, monitoring, simulation.

5. Market Risks: Proactive VaR pricing for housing ,banking, finance oil, gas, demand, performance, stock, derivatives prices dynamics mechanism forecast

6. Causes, onset, recovery of disaster, energy,banking,mortgage, financial crisis, asset prices bubble, debt, equities, properties NPL

7. Risks Hedging: Oil, gas, currency, interest rate futures, derivatives prices forecasts, risks hedging.

8. Corporate Governance: Operating, Cost, Financial accounting data tracking, asset price bubble and scandals cycles earning warning

9 M/A , IPO Risks :Joint ventures, pre and post M/A and IPO performance, stock prices, risks tracking.

OSA challenges the unknown futures, fight competition, maximize Risk adjusted return in oil, gas ,fund investment

Dr. Huang over 30 year develop, implemented structural dynamic risks and return simulation,

He pioneered two master hands controlling global economy, finance, capital market asset prices: extensive information knowledge base development Out of 1972 -2008 ( daily Wall Street Journals, Business Week, trading data, internet market and economic analysts, technical analysis, Monte Carlo, Risk Metric statistical analysis fail to track asset prices.

He Trained thousands Taiwan, Tsinghua, Tunghai, Fudan, Peking University faculties,students, applied his Ph.D thesis Moon-landing guidance and control to challenge the unknown future He patented “ Improve Process by OSA” in US and 82 countries, 1980, published thousands articles on US, Taiwan and China government, banking, finance, investment daily news papers, and on US Oil & Gas Journal journal predicted global oil, gas, currency, interest, stock futures prices since 1980

He lectured China, Taiwan, US 15 cities ( Beijing, Shanghai, Taipei, San Francisco Silicon Valley) TV, radio , OPEC petroleum ministers, executives China/global strategic investment risk management workshops to 30 million investors, banking finance, enterprises CEO, executives since 1983.

He predicted years/month ahead of 1987 US stock crisis, Asian Financial crisis 1997, US asset bubble burst 2000 and current China/US rate hikes, soaring oil, gas, commodities prices on his www.osawh.com website and predicted on Sept 2007 Wall Street Journal Street Market Beat, Real Time Economics blog that US rate cuts can not stop housing price slump resulted economic recession continue into 2008 summer and US, global stocks, fund, bear markets correction,

Country Risks OSA :Monetary policy, WTO impact on inflation,

GDP growth 貨幣財經政策入世對中外宏觀調控影響

Excessive money supply, rate cuts,DFI resulted soaring commodity, asset prices and falling US dollar push inflation and GDP higher

export

Monetary policy

Foreign direct investment

Business demandFixed

investment

Consumer demand

Macro-economic inflation and GDP growth

currency

Commodity prices

Monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on Global/China macro-economic control and daily oil, gas, capital market asset prices since 1983

Dr. Huang structural dynamic models accurately predict economic, energy crisis since 1980 on American Institute. Chemical Engineering Washington DC, World Congress1986, Tokyo

He accurately predicted in July 10, 1994 to Wall Street Journal and Wuhan Guotai, Wanguo CEO that Shanghai A index will soared to 800 from 333 in Aug.1994.(WSJ published late July China B share rebound, Shanghai A rebound to 820 in Aug-Oct, 1994)

He was invited by Wanguo, Guotai and banking CEO to offer lecture to thousands investors, traders, money manager predicted Shanghai A will be traded 600-800 during 1994-1996 due to macro-economic control, results published on Wuhan securities news Oct. 31, and Beijin Financial Times 1994

He accurately predicted in Wuhan stock information journal Feb. 1995 that Shanghai A will rebound from 540 to 800. It did on May 18 soared from 590 to 920 and plunged to 580 in three days, recommended buy Shanghai Petrochemical at one dollar soared to 8 in Aug.

He accurately predicted June 20, 1995 on Beijin Central Peoples radio one hour interview, and Financial Times, Economic Daily news, Commercial Times that Shanghai A will soar from 600 to 800 in Aug.1995.

Predicted on Wuhan securities news March 3, 1996, that China Peoples Bank will cut interest rate, stock market go to bull markets, Shanghai A break 1600.

Lectured Shanghai Eastern radio and Shanghai stock exchange, Dec. 16, 1996 to predict Shanghai A will rebound from 1000 to 1700 in 1997 after 10 % price limit. and to Beijing Peoples Bank finance staff July 2001 China stock plunge to 1500 from 2200. Predicted Nov 2003 on Euro-events China finance, capital market conference that oil, commodity,

metal prices making new high , soaring inflation lead to US , China rate hikes 2004 summer, stock prices plunge and housing, stocks price bubbles 2007 bubble burst

China/Global Economic, Enterprises reform, privatization MBO and IPO Prices Mechanism

Privatization, board members organization, debt restructuring. Maximize corporate/plant wide cost, financial accounting tracking, operating

profit margin through cost reduction and products, market innovation develop, implemented by goal, mission, performance oriented strategic (top management), and executive Operations Simulation Analysis teams maximize China, US oil, gas corporate performances and IPO stock prices in

MBO/IPO prices =F (listed market investor sentiment,and corporate profit margin)

= F (Shanghai/Shenzhen index, corporate profit margin)China oil/gas ADR shares prices ( SINOPEC, PetroChina, CNOOC

IPO after market prices =F (China market investor sentiment, US market investor sentiment, and corporate profit margin)

= F ( Dow Jones index, Shanghai/Shenzhen index, corporate profit margin)

Proactive structural China/Global Inflation, interest rate Risks, Government, corporate bond yield Price Mechanism simulation

Soaring asset, commodity prices, falling currency excessive money supply led to continued China/US inflation, credit tightening led to rising interest rates and bond yields

Inflation rates

Interest rates and bond yield

Consumer spending

currency oil, commodity,asset prices

Money supply growth

currency

Proactive Structural global currency and RMB market forces risks mechanism simulation

WWW.osawh.com/currency.html tracking trade surplus/deficit, interest rate spread impact on daily 40 currencies and last 12 years RMB ( 3 to 12) since 1998,predicted last Sept, that Fed rate cuts

Drag dollar to 1.5 EURO and 105 Yen.

US trade deficit

China/country trade surplus/deficit

Daily US dollar, RMB global exchange rates futures prices

Interest rate spread between US and yours

Integrating into Black-Schole for derivatives prices hedging

Proactive Structural China/Global housing prices, bubbles,wealth risks mechanism simulation

Housing prices and heating, appliances demand are fueled by money supply, excessive credit, stock markets wealth gain, predicted June 2007 PekingUniv, that China housing and stock prices correction late 2007

Money supply growth

Mortgage interest rate

Housing prices bubble, wealth Housing stock prices simulation

Stock market wealth

Stock index changesMBS credit derivatives

Home heating demand ,prices

Home appliances demand

Proactive Structural Market Risks: Global/China Stock indices prices futures market mechanism simulation

www.osawh.com/prod03.html tracking 40 stock indices and associated index ,ETF fund, wealth, prices are generated from money supply, lower interest rates and stock price, predict Sept 2007 that US rate cuts can not stop housing price slump drag into recession,US and global stocks into bear market correction, through summer 2008

Money supply growthConsumer spending

Interest rate/inflation rate

China Shanghai/Shenzhen 300 , A, B, Henseng, H-Share,Nikkei, Taiwan Index, Singapore ST

H stock index, Seoul futures, Investors sentiment , trading volume

US investor sentiment

NY Dow Jones/Nasdaq stock index

Integrate into Black-ScholeFor derivatives prices, hedging

currency

Proactive Structural China/Global coal, oil, gas, freight, power demand, prices stock prices mechanism simulation

China oil, gas downstream are well positioned, fully integrated follow Dr. Huang1991 speech to SINOPEC, Beijin on globalization, integration strategy

CNOOC, SINOPEC, PetroChina and coal stock prices skyatrocketing , Predicted Peking univ. 2007 that Fed rate cuts drive oil price over 100, 2008

Currency

Coal, crude oil, heating oil, gasoline , futures,petrochemical, plastics prices

Profit margin, stocks simulation

Gasoline, heating oil, petrochemical feedstockPrices, costs

Consumer Business spending

Powerplantrate

land, ocean freightcost

Coal, gas, LNGdemand, price

Proactive Structural China/Global Banking, Finance Enterprises Reform and, merger/acquisition performance risks simulation

Cut pre-merger, joint venture costs by 50 % in pre-merger speculationStock prices plunged more than 50-90 % gained in pre-merger speculation post merger integration , profit creation performances,

Investor sentimentsPost merger profit margin

Pre and post merger profit margin Performance improvement and stock

Prices simulation

Post merger integration performance

Pre-merger, reform goal setting targeting

Proactive Structural China/Global corporate governance, asset bubble burst scandals mechanism risks early warning simulation

Tracking cost and financial accounting systems and investors sentiment speculation bubbles for scandals early warning in US Enron and China Guanxia, ST stocks and China Aviation Oil and pension fund investment in housing market scandals 2004-2007

Production and sales tracking

financial accounting earning trackingBalance sheet and off-balance sheet

Derivatives, IPO, merger activities tracking

Strategic and execution corporate governance OSA teams tracking

Cost and financial accounting stock prices

Cost accounting bubble tracking

Investor sentiments, housing, oil, commodity asset bubble,stock index

Proactive Structural Dynamic Simulation of Causes, onset, recovery of China/Global Mortgage, credit,financial ,currency energy banking, bubble burst crisis and NPL loan, credit risk mechanism

Excessive money supply and hot money inflow resulted soaring inflation, rate hikes, trade deficit and currency plunge, rate hike and stocks, properties prices plunge and NPL loanPredicted Sept 2007 on Wall Street Market Beat that Fed rate cuts can not stop housing

price slump, credit crisis and recession 2008Strong Export growth

Excess foreign capital Inflow , currency appreciation

Export decline, soaring trade deficit and currency plunge

Runaway inflation and interest rate hikeStock prices and consumer demand plunge

leading to financial, currency, housing bubble burstdefault, crisis, recovery will begin until trade surplus

And currency rebound, interest rate cuts, stock prices rebound www.osawh.com/riskm.html

Excess money supplyConsumer spending

NPL Mortgage Default

Proactive Structural strategic China/Global project financing risk management early warning

Two master hands controlling China and global economy and industrial sectors ,corporate profitability and stock prices for finance managers asset allocation, wealth management investment strategy, risk control avoid chasing the markets trillion dollars loss

Money supply, interest rates

Currency exchange rates

Investors sentimentsOil, gas,LNG/downstream asset prices

bubble, profit margin simulation

Domestic and global market pricesAnd risks simulation

Conclusions and recommendations

OSA Proactive Structural China/global capital market fundamentals mechanism simulators predicted 6 month ahead the monetary, economic, fiscal policy impact on macro-economic, capital market asset prices to achieve sustainable profit growth systemic and specific risks, early warning supporting strategic China banking, finance, enterprises, capital market reform innovation

Which avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current betting on the wrong side of investment,chasing the markets, speculation on technical charts, market, business, economic data. It provide QFII, QDII rational, reliable decision investment and risk management decision tools in asst allocation, wealth management

Thousand strategic structural dynamic OSA models tracking China and global economic and daily capital market asset prices supporting China and global capital market decision makers through in-houseworkshops, corporate memberships and full banking, finance, enterprises reform, change management OSA program

Conclusions and Recommendation

Proactive OSA simulators predicted years to 6 month ahead the monetary, economic, fiscal policy ,impact on macro-economic control, capital market asset interest rate, currency, oil, gas, downstream demand, prices to achieve sustainable profit growth and prices stability

Monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on China capital markets asset prices simulation provide early warning to future oil, gas LNG, upstream/ downstream project financing market, credit, operational risks is the key to sustainable profit growth

Monetary , economic, fiscal policy, WTO impact on China capital markets asset prices simulation, early warning avoided trillion dollar market loss due to current chasing the markets, speculation on technical charts, market, business, economic data. It provide financing managers rational, reliable decision investment and risk management decision tools in asset allocation, wealth management

Proactive Structural SH-SZ300 stock index future e-GARCH-OSA

-.2

-.1

.0

.1

.2

.3

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

05M07 06M01 06M07 07M01 07M07

Residual Actual Fitted

Tracking China Peoples Bank money supply, inflation, housing price,US mortgage crisis Dow Jones index impact on daily Sh-Sz 300 futures.Accurately predict on Peking Univ, Wall Street Journal Sept 2007, SHSZ follow China rate hikes, raise 10 time deposit ratio and US stocks into bear market correction, plunged from 6000 to 4000 Jan 2008

LN Index

Residu

al

Proactive Structural Simulation of Dow Jones stock index futures

Daily NY Dow JOnes Stock Index SIMULATJapanese Yen = 105

5500

6500

7500

8500

9500

10500

11500

1 2 3 4 5 6

US Fed funud rate

Dow

Jones I

ndex

-2 2 3 4 5 6

US money supply growth %

This simulator predicted last 20 years daily ,Dow Jones index since 1987 crash,With average error below 1.5%, correlation above 0.96. Predicted last Sept on Wall Street Journal Market Beat that Fed rate cuts can not stop housing price slump into summer 2008, drag US to recession, Dow Jones plunge below 12000