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CONTENTS

Issue 1 - 2010

pp. 3-6Scandpower a part of the LLoyd’S regiSter group

pp. 18-19the gLobaL wind revoLution

pp. 6-7cooperation agreement with cnpe

2 Risk Management News 1-2010

Risk Management News is published by Scandpower and distributed to some 8,000 subscribers in 72 countries.

For a free subscription, see our website www.scandpower.com

Contact us: Scandpower AS P.O. Box 3 NO-2027 Kjeller, Norway

Editor-in-Chief Bjørn Inge Bakken CEO, Scandpower Group [email protected]

Editor Inge Asgeir Alme Vice President, Scandpower Group [email protected]

Associate Editors and Design Elisabeth Schiørn, Ståle Nilsen

Language Consultant Victoria Coleman

Printing HTR, www.htr.no

LIFE MATTERS“Life matters” – the motto of the Lloyd’s Register Group – harmonises nicely with Scandpower’s values.

On 31 December 2009, Scandpower officially became part of the vener-able Lloyd’s Register Group. This joining of forces is a major step towards true globalisation of our risk management services. A number of joint projects are already underway.

After three months, I can step back and view a vast sea of opportunities for Scandpower. Thanks to our acquisition by Lloyd’s Register, we now have 8,000 new colleagues, 240 offices in 80 countries and access to new competencies, resources and markets. This offers new and interesting international career opportunities for Scandpower’s employees, among an array of benefits.

Most importantly: we are in a much better position to provide our new and existing clients all over the globe with high-quality risk management services.

For example, together Scandpower and Human Engineering, a subsidiary of Lloyd’s Register, have more than 75 Human Factor specialists with expe-rience from practically every industry and the public sector. This enables us to provide our clients with top-quality services and gives us the capacity to further develop these services and the Human Factors field in general.

We are seeing a growing demand for risk management services in all our key markets – from the oil & gas, nuclear and energy industries to the transport and industrial sectors. To meet this demand we are actively recruiting seasoned risk management professionals and recent graduates alike.

These are exciting times indeed. I would like to wish you all a pleasant and productive spring and summer season.

Bjørn Inge Bakken CEO Scandpower Group

Iain Light, Christian Fenner and Bjørn Inge Bakken

Risk Management News 1-2010 3

The acquisition of Scandpower is Lloyd’s Register’s most significant move to date in becoming the leading authority in the provision of business assurance and risk manage-ment services to the oil and gas, nuclear and transportation indus-tries. Together, Lloyd’s Register and Scandpower are a major powerhouse with the skills, capacity and expertise needed to tackle the many issues faced by industry stakeholders. For the domestic Scandinavian market the acquisition will provide custom-ers with a major supplier of choice for safety, environmental, integrity and reliability services. The demand for energy-related risk management services is expected to rise as safety and environmental requirements become increasingly stringent and the need for operational efficiency grows. To achieve the desired results of the acquisition, an integration team has been established. The team, led by Estelle Clark from Lloyd’s Register and Henriette E. Hall from Scandpower, will ensure that the in-tegration process runs smoothly. The main focus of integration activities is on cooperating to serve the Group’s clients in the best possible way – and on establishing closer relationships for a safer world.

The integration will give Scandpower’s clients access to a much more complete service portfolio and a broader network of people and competence. Results have already begun to roll in. Scandpower just won a framework agreement with the Institute of Marine Research in Norway – primarily because of Scandpower and Lloyd’s Register’s joint capabilities and experience, which secured a top score on the competence evaluation. Scandpower is looking forward to starting work on this contract. Another example is in Taiwan where Scandpoer is currently manning a team made up of personnel from both Scandpower and Lloyd’s Register for a large-scale nuclear project. The team will cover a wide array of service areas, which neither Lloyd’s Register nor Scandpower could have covered alone.

“We have seen tremendous en-thusiasm in both organisations for integration activities. The staffs are very eager to learn as much as possible about each other’s organisa-tions, services and clients,” says Vice President Henriette E. Hall, who is responsible for Scandpower’s efforts in the integration process.

[email protected]

Closer relationshipsfor a safer worldOn 31 December Scandpower became part of the Lloyd’s Register Group, giving the company 8,000 new colleagues and access to some 240 offices in more than 80 countries. Integration activities have been structured and well-coordinated to ensure that both organisations maintain focus on the right priorities and the right level of detail during the integration process. Scandpower’s main priorities are to serve its clients in the best possible way and offer a much broader service portfolio.

Iain Light, Christian Fenner and Bjørn Inge Bakken


Why make this investment now?Scandpower is our largest acquisition to date in a recent series that enables the group to deliver the next generation of risk management services. Helping to meet codes and standards is very much our background but, increasingly, our clients in the capital-intensive industries require total technical solutions. They need sustainable answers that enhance operational efficiencies and improve asset reliability, as well as meet ever-demanding safety, quality and environ-mental expectations. Scandpower’s capa-bilities, models and methodologies will significantly enhance the group’s global capacity and expertise to tackle the many issues faced by industry stakeholders.

Which sectors need this type of total solution?The three key ones are: nuclear, oil and gas and transportation.

How will the civil nuclear power generating sector benefit?With Scandpower, we add market-leading probabilistic safety assessment solutions to our compliance, technical consulting and asset performance management services, which we’ve been providing worldwide since the industry’s beginnings. Scandpower’s proprietary RiskSpectrum® software gives operators

the tool and methods to assess safety throughout an asset’s life. It’s the de facto standard, licensed to half the industry. Eleven out of 13 nuclear power generating companies in China depend on it. In India, it’s every one.

Both organisations also bring key learn-ings from other capital-intensive sectors, such as aviation, oil and gas and rail. This combined capability and expertise will be invaluable to an expanding sector that’s set to fill the world’s energy gap and where mistakes simply can’t happen.

What are the advantages for the oil and gas business?Let’s take an ongoing project as an ex-ample. Throughout 2010, we’ll be pro-viding approval, inspection and technical support services to all the drilling rigs in Greenland. Operations come under the control of the Bureau of Minerals and Petroleum, which sets strict envi-ronmental conditions and contractual requirements. Clients will benefit from our broad sector compliance and techni-cal expertise and Scandpower’s in-depth knowledge of operations in Arctic condi-tions. To this, we’ll also add considerable drilling expertise from ModuSpec, an-other recent acquisition. ModuSpec has two decades of experience working on 90 % of the world’s drilling fleet. Mining

the group’s wealth of expertise – turning data into insight – will help to enhance safety and performance. Even slight ef-ficiency improvements have significant business benefits when you consider that it costs GBP 1 million a day to rent a drilling rig and a client may have several assets in operation.Besides the Arctic, Scandpower will en-hance the group’s subsea and deepwater expertise and grow business elsewhere on the increasingly active Norwegian continental shelf.

Does the acquisition mean more of a consulting mindset?We have a strong, deep technical domain and that will always be the case. We’re not a management consultant firm, but we are here to solve technical problems that are causing business headaches. For example, we know why a weld fails, but we can also help an operator to put matters right quickly, safely and cost-effectively so that business can get back on track. We understand molecules and materials. We help companies to maintain and operate assets safely. And through our joint broad risk manage-ment capabilities, we help to ensure that a single asset or a complete supply chain is safe, reliable and sustainable.

The end of 2009 saw Scandpower AS join Lloyd’s Register Energy and the beginning of ‘single-service, total-technical packages’ for clients, encompassing compliance, technical consulting, business assurance and risk management. The organisations’ heads explain how the high-risk, capital-intensive sectors will benefit from this joined-up approach.

Scandpower a part of the Lloyd’s Register Group

FROM MOLECuLES TO MAINTENANCE AND MANAGEMENT

Iain Light, Group Energy Director, Lloyd’s Register Energy


What makes Scandpower an attractive acquisition?Over the years, we’ve recruited and retained highly skilled, professional staff, focusing on delivering high-quality risk management services. We’ve also been good at utilising our resources and capa-bilities to the fullest, across regions and trough our offices and units in Norway, Sweden, China and the US. Each year 250 Scandpower professionals work on some 1,200 projects. We’re a well-oiled machine, and have put into place effi-cient processes throughout our organisa-tion, from business support to technical functions. This is reflected in our broad client base and good reputation in the industry.

Have you worked with the Lloyd’s Register Group in the past?Yes, we have worked on several joint projects in the rail, nuclear and oil and gas sectors. We have achieved excellent results for our clients and have found that we are a perfect fit. We have built a strong relationship between our two organisations, which helped to influence the strategic decision to merge.

Why did Scandpower join the group?Lloyd’s Register is a people company, with a culture, reputation and values that are congruent with ours.

Both organisations are made up of people who share a responsibility to make the world a safer place and a history of stepping up to face tough technical challenges.

Our business already has an international platform, but adding the Group’s global infrastructure, technical competencies and resources has taken our market-leading services and business to a whole new level. We’re experiencing an unprecedented demand for our risk management services and there is signifi-cant potential for synergy and growth, especially in the provinces of tomorrow, such as China and India. There will be opportunities for Scandpower’s techni-cal experts and leaders to work in new places and alongside clients in an array of sectors. In the domestic Scandinavian market, the acquisition provides clients with a major alternative supplier of choice for safety, environmental, integrity and reliability services.

How will clients benefit from the collaboration? The organisations have complementary technical capabilities and service offer-ings. For example, in the Scandinavian rail market, the group will supple-ment the risk management support

Scandpower already provides to owners and operators in key technical areas such as compliance. Clients will benefit from a single-service package that helps to meet regulations and enhance safety and operational efficiencies at the same time, assisting in alleviating common pres-sures. Elsewhere, in other regions and sectors, the group will offer the many advantages of total risk management services.

How will you make the most of the opportunities?Both organisations are very positive to adding value to each other. The acquisi-tion is a mutually beneficial partnership, as the dual branding shows. We have implemented a comprehensive integra-tion process, with dedicated integration specialists based in both organisations who log all the synergies and identify new opportunities to better support our clients around the world. The demand for complete technical answers, with the wide-ranging benefits they bring clients in the high-risk, capital-intensive sectors, is enormous.

Scandpower a part of the Lloyd’s Register Group

A SHARED COMMITMENT, CuLTuRE AND ENTHuSIASM

Bjørn Inge Bakken, CEO, Scandpower Group


On 22 March Scandpower entered into a cooperation agreement with China Nuclear Power Engineering Company (CNPE) – a major player in the Chinese nuclear industry and part of China National Nuclear Corporation (CNNC).

According to current nuclear develop-ment plans in China, CNPE will be responsible for equipment purchasing, and design and construction of some 40 reactor units in the next 20 years. The cooperation agreement primarily focuses on software development, particularly the new web-based version of RiskSpectrum® RiskWatcher risk monitoring software, and related consulting services, e.g. Level 1 & 2 PSA, PSA data, aging PSA, Human Reliability Analysis (HRA) and risk-informed PSA applications. Cooperating with a heavyweight such as CNPE will open up new opportunities for Scandpower for expanding its presence in China and attracting new software users and consulting clients.

Cooperation agreement with CNPE

About

Lloyd’s Register provides independent assurance to companies operating high-risk capital intensive assets in energy, marine and transportation to enhance the safety of life, property and the environment, thereby helping its clients ensure safe, responsible and sustainable supply chains. The Group comprises charities and non-charitable companies, with the latter supporting the charities in their main goals.

Lloyd’s Register was founded in 1760. Its mission is to secure, for the benefit of the community, high technical standards of design, manufacture, construction, maintenance, operation and performance for the purpose of enhancing the safety of life and property at sea, on land and in the air. The organisation opened its first office in Norway in Bergen in 1871. The organisation’s first classed ship built in Norway was the Stella (an iron screw steamer, weighing 1329 gross) constructed by Martens, Olsen & Co. and registered in the port of Bergen to the owner J.R. Olsen and others.

The Lloyd’s Register Group provides risk assessment and engineering analysis consultancy services, and risk based inspection services. The organisation carries out independent design appraisal and inspection of plant and equipment, to international codes and standards, and is authorised as an independent inspection agency by industry bodies such as the American Society of Mechanical Engineers (ASME) and by numerous national government agencies and accreditation councils, and as a Notified Body for many EU directives including the Pressure Equipment Directive (PED).


Signing of the cooperation agreement. In the first row, from left: Mr. Jerzy Grynblat and Mr. Ji Xing. In the second row, from left: Ms. Xiufeng Tian, Mr. Jinlong Sun, Mr. Xuhong He, Mr. Haibo Chen, Mr. Bo Zhao, Mr. Xiaohua Fu, Mr. Yidan Yuan, Ms. Feng Sun, and Mr. Ying Xu.

The cooperation will begin in the next few weeks with the first order for RiskSpectrum RiskWatcher. Discussions regarding a second order for another nuclear power plant are already well underway. This agreement is an impor-tant acknowledgement of Scandpower’s position in China, and provides an excellent foundation for future growth in software and consulting services. The agreement was signed by Mr. Ji Xing, Vice President of CNPE, and Mr. Jerzy Grynblat, Nuclear Business Director of Scandpower and Lloyd’s Register, at a ceremony at CNPE’s headquarters in Beijing.

At the signing Mr. Ji Xing said, “CNPE’s participation in this important

cooperation will be led by Mr. Bo Zhao, Deputy Director of the Overall Design Department. CNPE has very ambitious plans for developing nuclear power in China, and safety has always been the focus of all our activities. Scandpower is an internationally recognised leader in the area of nuclear safety, and as such is an ideal partner for our company. Cooperation between Scandpower and CNPE dates back almost 10 years. Today we are formally committing to developing this cooperation even further. I consider this an important step in accelerating our efforts and ensuring that we will successfully fulfil our ambi-tious goals.”

In response Mr. Jerzy Grynblat said,

“Cooperation with CNPE is a major and important step in developing our activities in China. CNPE is an ideal partner since its striving for excellence and safety in the nuclear field fits very well with Scandpower’s ambitions. Together, CNPE and Scandpower will contribute significantly to the peaceful development of the nuclear industry in China.”

[email protected]@scandpower.com


LNG projects in Sweden

Scandpower’s LNG expertise encompasses onshore and offshore production, transport, storage and regasification. Since completing its first LNG project for Statoil in 1984, the company has successfully carried out more than 150 projects for the international oil and gas industry, supplying services to a wide range of customers, including owners, opera-tors, engineering companies and vendors. In a number of projects, the company has been involved in the entire project lifecycle, from pre-conceptual phases to operation and modification.

For Scandpower, close cooperation with the customer and the authorities is essential for successful delivery of its services to the LNG industry. The establishment of an LNG terminal in Nynäshamn, the first of its kind in Sweden, is a prime example of such fruitful collaboration. Located on the eastern coast of Sweden and owned by AGA Gas, the terminal is scheduled to go into operation in 2011 and will deliver LNG to the Nynäs Refinery, the Fortum natural gas distribution net in Stockholm and other industrial custom-ers. From the outset of the project, the owner performed extensive risk management work in close cooperation with Scandpower. Environmental court proceedings and other permit-related processes involving the authorities went smoothly and construction of the termi-nal is now underway. The final quantita-tive risk analysis has been completed by Scandpower and constitutes part of the final safety report for the terminal.

Based on its broad experience with

onshore LNG projects, Scandpower un-derstands the importance of evaluating and documenting risk to third parties. The company has also found that com-munication with the facilities’ neighbours is vital, and strongly recommends early involvement and open discussions with all stakeholders on issues relating to risk and risk mitigation.

In general, when it comes to potentially high-risk industrial facilities the need to involve neighbours and other inter-ested parties in early project phases is underestimated. In a democratic society the failure to involve third parties may lead to serious problems in later phases of the project. In many countries such involvement is required by law as well. Very few people like having large-scale industrial facilities in close proximity, and will often emphasise the potentially high risk these represent in arguments against construction. Therefore, close, effective dialogue with third parties is an excellent investment and essential to ensuring the successful project implementation.

LNG projects in Sweden in which Scandpower has been involved.

In recent years, Scandpower has become the leading provider of risk man-agement services for onshore LNG facilities in Sweden, covering all projects phases, from planning and early design through to start-up.

Avesta (Outokupmu)

Stockholm - Högdalen (AGA)

Nynäshamn (AGA)

Gothenburg


Services provided by Scandpower in connection with the establishment of onshore LNG facilities:

Early phase - Location studies• Overall qualitative and quantitative risk analyses• If needed, additional CFD consequence calculations• Identification of need for risk management activities for permit processes and documents• Establishment of HSE plan and hazard log• Establishment of risk acceptance criteria for the project• Start-up of project risk analysis• Different permit related safety activities and presentations for the authorities

Risk analyses during concept study• Qualitative and quantative risk analyses of preliminary design, including Hazop• If needed, analysis of different technical design solutions• If needed, additional CFD consequence calculations• Transport risk analysis• Different permit related safety activities and presentations for the authorities• Follow-up of hazard log and HSE plan• Follow-up of project risk analysis

Risk analysis of final design• Final version of qualitative and quantative risk analyses, incl. Hazop and domino effects• If needed, additional CFD consequence calculations• Final version of safety report• SIL analysis of safety critical equipment• Work environment studies• Site inspections during construction• Emergency analysis and establishment of emergency plan and safety instructions• Follow-up/closing of hazard log and HSE plan• Follow-up/closing of project risk analysis

[email protected]

Photo for illustration purposes only


Over the last couple of years, Scandpower has experienced a surge in demand for services in the railway sector. Many of these projects are the result of growth in cross-border rail activities spurred by implementa-tion of Eu railway legislation and a general increase in interest among train operators to take their business into adjacent countries. In Scandinavia, Swedish railway op-erators are laying plans to operate in Norway and Danish operators are taking market shares in Sweden and vice-versa. In order to succeed, operators will have to deal with variations in national legisla-tion. Experience has shown that large and small operators alike need assistance in these matters. For example, certain operators have experienced difficulties in

understanding and interpreting legislation and documentation requirements. Scandpower has delivered consultancy services to Scandinavian countries for a number of years and has comprehensive knowledge of requirements and regula-tory processes. The company is in an excellent position to help operators to tackle interoperability and cross-acceptance issues. Prior to submit-ting applications for cross-acceptance, Scandpower can assist its clients in collecting and producing the required safety documentation as well as provide advice on how to present the completed application. For example, with regard to interoperability, Scandpower has assisted several train operators in performing risk analyses when reconstructing their rolling stock. The analyses have then

been submitted to the relevant national authorities to prove that the rolling stock meets safety requirements in that country.

Scandpower’s extensive experience with RAMS (in connection with the railway standard EN 50126) has proven valu-able in all the company’s consulting assignments involving interoperability and cross-acceptance. The company also holds informative RAMS courses in Norway and Sweden, which have be-come very popular among new and ex-isting customers alike. More information about Scandpower’s railway services and courses may be found on the company’s website.

[email protected]

Boost in demand for Scandpower’s railway sector services


Lloyd’s Register EMEA has won a framework agreement with Banedanmark to provide inde-pendent safety assessment and Notified Body (Interoperability Directive) services as part of the ap-proval process for the EuR 2.4 billion renewal of Denmark’s signalling system. The contract will run from January 2010 until the conclusion of the Banedanmark’s Signalling Programme, scheduled for 2021.

Programme Director Morten Søndergaard says: “We are looking forward to working with Lloyd’s Register

EMEA. The safety approval of the new signals is an essential task that will ultimately ensure that the new signalling programme is implemented on time.” John Stansfeld, Director of Transportation for the Lloyd’s Register Group says: “This contract was won against strong inter-national competition. It is a significant achievement and puts us at the forefront of European Rail Traffic Management System (ERTMS) assurance projects, bringing together our global experience and knowledge from the signalling and other major infrastructure assurance projects that we have undertaken re-cently, such as the Dubai Metro and the

Taiwan High Speed Railway.”

The G-ISA Lloyd’s Register EMEA will be responsible for the overall safety as-sessment of the Signalling Programme, including assessment of the client’s work and overall assessment of the suppliers and stakeholders’ work (interfaces). This will ensure that programme execution and deliveries fulfil safety requirements, that interfaces are managed properly and that the programme obtains the neces-sary approvals from the Danish Public Transit Authority (Trafikstyrelsen).

[email protected]

Lloyd’s Register Group wins major safety assessment contract with Banedanmark

Scandpower has provided courses in EN 50126 RAMS (Reliability, Availability, Maintainability and Safety) for the railway industry since 2001. The courses enjoy an excellent reputation within the university community and the railway industry itself, and more than 150 railway experts have participated in the RAMS courses.

The courses were held in Norway until 2009, when it became Sweden’s turn to play host. Two courses were held in Stockholm in 2009, and the third in February 2010. The most recent course was – as always – a success, and was attended by 18 people from 11 compa-nies in four countries. Three and a half days of lectures culminated in a group exercise with lively discussion on the final day,

giving the participants a deeper understanding of the RAMS process.

Scandpower plans to arrange an open course in Stockholm each February, and can tailor individual courses for companies that wish to acquire basic or advanced RAMS knowledge.

[email protected]

RAMS course info


Scandpower recently participated in a research project for the Radiation Safety Authority in Sweden to de-velop a defence-in-depth framework emphasising the link to probabilistic safety assessments (PSAs). The project has generated new insight that may facilitate the development of safer, more reliable nuclear power plants. The defence in-depth (DiD) principle refers to the introduction of several layers of protection between a hazard and potential consequences. With regard to nuclear power plants (NPPs), hazards include failures that disturb plant operation and may lead to overheating of fuel, release of radioactive material or impact on the public in terms of cancer and fatalities. With regard to oil rigs, hazards include failures that propagate fire and explosions, which in turn pose risks to worker health and the threat of economic losses.

The nuclear community defines defence-in-depth as follows:

Use of several overlapping layers of tech-nical equipment, operational measures and administrative routines to protect the plant barriers and maintain their effectiveness, and to protect the environ-ment in case the barriers do not operate as planned.

Five levels of defence-in-depth (barriers) for protecting the public have been defined for nuclear power plants and are presented in the table above. (Source: The International Atomic Energy Agency)

The research project has developed the original IAEA definitions into a DiD framework that emphasises the link to the probabilistic safety assessments

Defence-in-Depth –a principle for designing safe and reliable plants and systems

1. Prevention of failures and disturbances.

Robust design and stringent requirements for manufacturing, operation and maintenance.

2. Detection of failures and control of disturbances.

Testing, survillance, and control and protection systems.

3. Control of design basis accidents. Technical safety functions and disturbance and emergency instructions.

4. Control and limitation of beyond design-basis accident conditions.

Established technical measures and efficient plant accident management.

5. Limitation of the consequences of radioactive releases to the environment.

Effective coordination with and between the authorities responsible for public protection

DID 1+2

Prevent abnormal operation Abnormaloperation

Need forshutdown

DID 4

Preventat plant

DID 5

Mitigateat plant

DID 6

Mitigateoff-site

DID 1

Preventfailures/

disburance

Potentialfailures/

disturbances

DID 2

Detection offailures/

disturbances

Failures/disturbances

Degraded control and safety functions

Systems, Structures and Components with undetected failures,weaknesses, failure rates, failure probabilities

DID 3

Controlof

abnormaloperation

Failures/disturbances in production systems

Abnormal operation

Design Basis accidents

Accident conditions

Beyond Design Basis accidents


References:“Defence in Depth in Nuclear Safety”. IAEA-INSAG-10. A report by the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1996 and “Basic Safety Principles for Nuclear Power Plants”. IAEA-INSAG 12. A report by the International Nuclear Safety Advisory Group. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna, 1999.

The PSA community will be gathering in Seattle in June for the major interna-tional PSAM 10 conference. Scandpower will present some 20 technical papers to players in the nuclear industry, sharing its expertise in a wide range of areas, from shutdown HRA and defence-in-depth assessment to software, reliability data collection and safety assessments for oil rigs.

The tenth Probabilistic Safety Assess-ment and Management (PSAM 10) conference will be held on 7-11 June 2010 at the Renaissance Seattle Hotel in Seattle, Washington, USA.

The objective of the PSAM conferences is to promote rational decision-making to improve safety and reliability and op-timise the use of resources for complex systems through the application of risk assessment and management methods.

[email protected]

Scandpower to share technical expertise in Seattle

(PSAs) carried out as part of the safety case required for the operation of a nuclear power plant. This new framework is illustrated in the figure on page 12.

The first level of defence is comprised of measures to ensure good basic quality in operational as well as protection and safety-related systems, components and structures (SSCs) to ensure high system reliability and availability.

The next level of defence is the monitor-ing of the condition of SSCs in order to detect degradation and failures before they become critical, i.e. before they affect the performance of the remaining defence-in-depth levels.

The third level is the robustness of the operational systems to keep the plant

in operation even in the case of distur-bances due to failure of components in the plant or to external causes, e.g. short losses of power from the national grid.

The fourth level is comprised of safety systems designed to arrest the event as early as possible and prevent escalation. In NPPs, safety systems must prevent overheating of nuclear fuel. In other contexts, a safety system may be a sys-tem that prevents the release of toxic or explosive gases.

The fifth level is comprised of systems for limiting radioactive release at an NPP or limit the size of an explosion or fire.

Finally, there is also a sixth level: emergency planning for evacuation of people living close to NPPs or for evacu-

ation and rescue operations on oil rigs.

Conclusions from the project indicate that:

• DiD levels can be and are evaluated with PSAs;

• PSA results (frequencies and conditional core damage/release probabilities for specific cases) can provide insights into the strengths and weaknesses of the DiD levels in various scenarios;

• the defence-in-depth framework and mode of thinking provide a suitable approach to structuring and analysis of safety measures at various levels for any type of plant or system.

[email protected]


Scandpower –a global partner for advanced consequence modelling

“there haS been an incredibLe increaSe in cfd capabiLity in the paSt SeveraL yearS; we are now doing SimuLationS that were impoSSibLe onLy a few yearS ago.”

Joar daLheim

Detailed consequence modelling has become an increasingly important component of effective risk manage-ment of onshore and offshore facili-ties. A more nuanced understanding of the potential consequences of accidental events is vital for improv-ing design and mitigation procedures and enhancing safety performance and financial results. In development projects applying new technologies (e.g. Arctic developments) the use of detailed consequence modelling is a particularly effective way of gaining greater insight into new hazards and their potential consequences. Scandpower is a global leader in advanced safety-related consequence modelling for the oil and gas industry.

Focus on modelling

Scandpower’s 35 CFD specialists in Norway, Sweden, the US and China provide detailed knowledge to customers worldwide, using advanced simulations in a probabilistic perspective to identify dimensioning events and their potential effects on people and structures.

Scandpower models complete chains of accidental events, implementing in-house tools to calculate leak frequencies and transient leak rates. The company uses the commercial tool OLGA® for transient riser leak simulations, and ei-ther the commercial CFD tool FLACS® or Kameleon FireEx KFX® for gas dispersion simulations and for LNG pool formation, if required. Scandpower creates ignition models in accordance with either the new OLF model (2007) or the older JIP model (1996). The company carries out explosion simulations with FLACS and fire and smoke simulations with KFX, and uses the commercial tools FAHTS® and USFOS® for structural response simulations.

FLACS is the acknowledged industry leading software for simulations of explosions in offshore process modules. Since acquiring its first license in 1998, Scandpower has become the foremost user of this tool, both in terms of the number of active licenses and the num-ber of successful simulations. KFX is the recognised industry leading software for simulations of fire and smoke events in process modules. Scandpower was the first commercial user of KFX, and is collaborating closely with the developer ComputIT to further develop the tool.

Detailed non-linear structural response simulations with USFOS improve the ability to optimise a structure with regard


to passive fire protection. Scandpower uses the load transfer program FAHTS to consistently convert heat loads (kW/m2) from fire to temperature loads (°C) on the structure, and includes the effect of passive fire protection in the load transfer. The company then uses USFOS to simulate structural response from the transient explosion loads obtained in FLACS. A detailed non-linear transient structural analysis provides a better understanding of the actual blast resistance of the structure, and allows for more accurate explosion risk design and explosion mitigation.

By offering detailed simulations of all potential accidental events, Scandpower is in a unique position to assist its clients in gaining deeper insight and achieving safer developments.

[email protected]

Focus on modelling

FLACS®

FLACS® has been the leading tool for explosion consequence prediction on offshore oil and gas installations for over a decade and has become an industry standard. Every year FLACS is used in safety studies and risk assessments at more than 100 offshore facilities worldwide. Several oil and gas companies require that the tool be used for explosion hazard assessments.

FLACS is a registered trademark of Gexcon.

OLGA®

OLGA® is a transient multiphase flow simulator and the tool of choice for flow assurance studies for the oil and gas industry. OLGA has been verified against a vast number of experiments, and has been used successfully in numerous field developments. OLGA is also suitable for use in risk and safety-related studies such as modelling of pressure protection of platform inlet arrangements and leakage consequence modelling.

OLGA is a registered trademark of the SPT Group.

KFX®

KFX® is probably the most advanced CFD code for gas dispersion, flare and fire simulation, and is gradually becoming an industry standard in this area. KFX is used worldwide for both analysis and design purposes. Scandpower was the first commercial user of KFX and has a cooperation agreement with ComputIT, the developers and owners of KFX.

KFX is a registered trademark of ComputIT.


Leakage modelling in risk analyses

In risk analysis, leakage modelling is es-sential for establishing a realistic picture of accident consequences. For pipeline and riser leakage modelling, Scandpower normally uses the OLGA® simulator. Source models in OLGA can include a well model, a pipeline and riser model as well as a model of the inlet arrange-ment and topside systems. Such complex models are often needed to meaningfully capture the transient nature of the re-lease. Sound modelling of system geom-etry, fluid properties, thermo-hydraulics and parameterisation in general is also required. OLGA enables analysis of transient scenarios such as shut-in and blowdown as well. In these situations the time necessary for initiating mitigation operations may be decisive for risk levels. The leakage results from OLGA are used for further modelling and investigation of gas dispersion and fire and explosion hazard, for instance with the CFD tool Kameleon FireEx KFX®. With regard to dispersion of gas through water, Scandpower has developed an in-house

tool to model the behaviour of subsea gas plumes using leakage results from OLGA as input. The plume model propa-gates the gas through the water and cal-culates the release area and release rate at the water surface. The subsequent gas dispersion in the atmosphere may then be investigated with KFX to determine the size and shape of the flammable gas cloud as illustrated in the figures. These types of analyses have a number of applications, including risk analysis of marine operations. Scandpower has the know-how to model a leakage all the way from pipeline to gas dispersion and finally gas ignition, fire and explosion – regardless of whether a leakage has occurred above or under water.

Scandpower’s flow assurance consultants also use results from pipeline simulations in reliability analysis, as a means of iden-tifying undesired events with the most severe consequences.

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Figure 1. Subsea leakage in pipeline, with surface release area and gas cloud.

Figure 2. A ship in the midst of a gas cloud following a subsea gas release.

In consequence modelling of leakages it is vital to represent the source in a meaningful way. The source may be simple, such as a tank, or a more complex construction, such as a riser with continuous inflow from a pipeline and several wells. Scandpower has the capacity to generate detailed flow assurance knowledge for use in risk analysis of a wide range of operations.

Focus on modelling


New ISO standard for risk managementThe International Organization for Standardization (ISO) recently issued a new standard for risk man-agement. The standard has been developed in response to the need to standardise existing norms, regu-lations and frameworks related to risk management.

ISO 31000The introduction of ISO 31000 is based on the recognition that organisations of all types and size must deal with internal and external factors and influences that may create uncertainty about whether and when they will achieve their objec-tives. The effect this uncertainty has on the organisation’s objectives is defined as risk.

Eleven principlesThe practice of risk management has been developed over time and within many sectors in order to meet diverse needs. The adoption of consistent processes within a comprehensive framework can help to ensure that risk is managed effectively, efficiently and coherently. The ISO 31000 therefore includes 11 principles with which organisations should comply and a management framework to effectively implement and integrate these principles into a management system:

Risk management •creates and protects value. •is an integral part of all

organisational processes.

•is part of decision-making.•explicitly addresses uncertainty.•is systematic, structured and timely.•is based on the best available

information.•is tailored.•takes human and cultural factors

into account.•is transparent and inclusive.•is dynamic, iterative and responsive

to change.•facilitates continual improvement of

the organisation.

Together these principles support an overall principle: dealing with risk is a management responsibility and will, when performed systematically, gener-ate substantial organisational learning at various levels, strengthening the organisation’s ability to deal with the entire risk picture.

Communicating riskThe new standard unfortunately fails to explicitly address one of the most com-plex challenges to risk managers and professionals: the art of communicating risk. Although communication is re-ferred to in the attributes, the standard should have put more emphasis on the complexity of risk communication by creating a specific principle for it.

Theoretically, risk communication is based on several models that describe how risk information is processed, risk perceptions are formed, and risk deci-sions are made. From a practical point of

view, many factors affect how risks are perceived. All these factors can alter risk perceptions in varying degrees of mag-nitude, playing a major role in determin-ing levels of concern, worry, anger, anxi-ety, fear, hostility, and outrage – which in turn can have a significant impact on attitudes and behaviour. Effective risk communication should therefore be seen as a professional discipline whose application requires knowledge, planning, preparation, skill, and practice.

Attributes of enhanced risk managementThe new standard represents a useful framework to be implemented by risk managers. It also presents an informa-tive annex describing a set of attributes which focus on continual improvement through designation, measurement and review of performance goals; fully defined and accepted accountability for risks, controls and risk treatment tasks; application of risk management in all decision-making; ongoing com-munication and full integration into the organisation’s governance structure.

The 31000 standard is not industry-specific, and like ISO 9000 and ISO 14000, it will provide a set of internationally recognised guidelines for managing risk.

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Wind energy is the fastest growing source of electricity in the world. Wind power technology is being deployed onshore on a large scale in countries across the globe, while offshore wind looks promising and is expected to substantially contrib-ute to a clean energy supply in the future. Many energy companies view wind power as a future business area. “As a consultancy company providing risk management services to these companies we need to be ahead of developments,” states Senior Consultant Arve Sandve at Scandpower.

Global capacityClose to 35 GW of new wind capacity was installed worldwide in 2009, bring-ing total installed capacity up to almost 158 GW – which represents a 31 % increase from 2008. In addition to devel-opments in Europe, growth was driven by China and the US.

More new wind power capacity was installed in the EU in 2009 than any other electricity-generating technology, making up 39 % of all new capacity. The US wind energy industry broke all previ-ous records by installing nearly 10,000 MW of new generating capac-ity in 2009. Asian markets have seen tremendous growth as well. A third of the new turbines worldwide were installed in China, whose 13 GW of new capacity outstripped that of Europe (10.5 GW) and the US (9.9 GW).

Many governments now see wind energy as an important component of solutions for dealing with the predicted global energy crisis. In Europe, the US and especially China, large wind parks

have already been installed or are under planning. Taking into consideration the lifecycle of a wind park, this major ex-pansion onshore and offshore will pose substantial challenges to the industry.

uK leads the way offshoreThe UK is becoming a world leader in offshore wind. The country has imple-mented a series of large-scale projects in its waters and more are planned for the near future. Scandpower is play-ing a role in the construction of the Sheringham Shoal wind park, which is currently underway. “We are providing Statoil with support services for this very exciting project. From a risk manage-ment point of view the construction phase represents new challenges with regard to safe marine operations and risk management in general,” says Mr Sandve. “However, we are confident that pooling our companies’ extensive oil and gas offshore experience will ensure safe project execution.”

New operations conceptsThe installation of large-scale offshore

The global wind revolution


wind parks is not the only challenge fac-ing the industry. Technology and support systems also need to be developed to ensure safe, efficient operations. Major development efforts are already under-way and test areas have been set up in Europe and the US. For example, Statoil has installed the world’s first floating wind turbine off the coast of western Norway as part of its Hywind Demo project. “There are many interesting ele-ments in this R&D project, whose main goal is to develop a commercially-proven floating turbine concept. Basically, the overarching focus is on ensuring safe, efficient operations in harsh environ-ments, with specific focus on accessibil-ity and reliability, remote operations, maintainability (easy to repair) and serviceability (easy to service),” explains Mr Sandve. Risk management servicesThe rapid growth in development of wind parks – and offshore parks in particular – is challenging providers of traditional risk management services for the offshore industry to provide

the wind energy industry with support services tailored to their needs. “It is not about reinventing the wheel,” he says. “Rather, it is about applying our experience in customising services for the offshore oil and gas industry to the offshore wind industry in order to ensure safe operations. We will have to tackle challenges in every phase of a wind park’s lifecycle, from the project phase through construction and marine opera-tions to maintenance.”

The European Wind Energy Association expects the completion of 10 additional offshore wind parks in 2010 in Europe alone. This will add 1,000 MW of capac-ity and represents a market growth of 75 % compared to 2009. If recent development in the US and China is also taken into account, the future looks bright indeed for the wind energy industry.

Arve Sandve is a senior consultant and wind energy lead at Scandpower.

[email protected]

MW %------------------------------------------------------USA 25,170 20,8Germany 23,903 19,8Spain 16,754 13,9China 12,210 10,0India 9,615 8,0Italy 3,736 3,1France 3,404 2,8UK 3,241 2,7Denmark 3,180 2,6Portugal 2,862 2,4Rest of the world 16,693 13,8-------------------------------------------------------Total top 10 104,104 86,2World total 120,798 100,0

Figure: Top 10 total installed capacity 2008

Retur: Scandpower AS P.O.Box 3, NO-2027 Kjeller

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Scandpower ASBergen, Norway [email protected]: +47 55 30 05 55

Scandpower ABStockholm, Sweden [email protected] Tel: +46 (0)8 445 21 00

Scandpower Inc.Houston, TX, USA [email protected]: +1 713 654 1900

Stavanger, Norway [email protected] Tel: +47 51 91 71 70

Gothenburg, Sweden [email protected] Tel: +46 (0)31 335 03 30

Richland, WA, [email protected] Tel: +1 509 946 4334

Trondheim, Norway [email protected] Tel: +47 73 54 63 60

Malmö, Sweden [email protected] Tel: +46 (0)40 680 64 00

Scandpower Inc.Beijing, P.R. [email protected] Tel: +86 10 6467 2860

Sandvika, Norway [email protected] Tel: +47 92 24 71 00

www.scandpower.com www.lr.org www.riskspectrum.com

Scandpower AS(Headquarters)

P.O. Box 3NO-2027 Kjeller Norway

[email protected] Tel: +47 64 84 44 00

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