Meaningful Use

Bosun: “recent work; some rot; lots of caulking; -1” Engineer: “bilge pumping issues, unsure about backups; -2” Third Mate: “new, small, tired crew; -1” Second Mate: “unfamiliar with the storm and need new route; -1” Chief Mate: “convergence of issues; -2” … we sail with a “3”?

The project manager is a little green: -1

The software vendor has a fabulous track record for on time/on budget: +2

There are major construction and service line projects running concurrently: -1

Due to high productivity and other projects, there is little slack in the organization to respond to unexpected challenges: -2

Financial strength is good, market outlook is positive: +1

Launch a project with a “9”….sure.

Identify risks with impact, likelihood, mitigation

Many models, forms, and processes available

Hospitals already have a risk construct in place for the

required CMS risk assessment

Many statistical tools available. Two common ones are

Monte Carlo simulation and Decision trees

Use Monte Carlo analysis for concurrent and/or multivariate

risks

Decision trees for binary, sequential decisions

Once the individual project risk profiles are known, they can in turn be analyzed in aggregate with a Monte Carlo process

This method also allows for locking down some number of variables and running the analysis to gain sensitivity insight

There will be a mixture of dependent and independent variables in the portfolio

The tools allow for other variables to be factored in as well:

◦ Strategic alignment

◦Capital return on investment

◦ Resource utilization

Entire view of the portfolio Project selection Project termination Sensitivity measuring to determine key

resources (capital, people, server capacity) Better understanding of the impact when a

risk turns into an issue Project costs increasing

Project complexity increasing Resources decreasing

Discussion and Questions

Berinato, S. (2003, July 1). The role of risk analysis in project portfolio

management. http://www.cio.com

Chase, G. (2012). Drawing experience from tragedy. Wooden Boat, 233.

Project Management Institute (2014). “High Cost of Low Performance”.

Talaikis, T. (n.d.), http://www.talaikis.com

Mike Canfield can be reached at mcanfield@augustahealth.com