Risk Management, ConservationRisk Management, Conservationand the and the Basin StudyBasin Study

Eric Kuhn, Eric Kuhn, GMGM

AN UPPER BASIN PERSPECTIVEAN UPPER BASIN PERSPECTIVE

Colorado Colorado

River River

DistrictDistrict

Basin Study Results Basin Study Results

• More than 1 in 5 climate change tracesMore than 1 in 5 climate change traces post 2040 show a post 2040 show a “Lee Ferry deficit”“Lee Ferry deficit” (1 in 12 of all traces) (1 in 12 of all traces)

• Conservation in the Upper Basin with aConservation in the Upper Basin with a “ “Water Bank” is an effective strategy toWater Bank” is an effective strategy to reduce Lee Ferry deficits reduce Lee Ferry deficits

• Under Under Article III.c. Article III.c. of the 1922 Compact, the of the 1922 Compact, the Upper Division states shall not cause the Upper Division states shall not cause the flows at Lee Ferry to fall below 75maf/any flows at Lee Ferry to fall below 75maf/any consecutive 10 yearsconsecutive 10 years

• The Upper Basin has an undefined obligation The Upper Basin has an undefined obligation to the Mexican Treaty under to the Mexican Treaty under Article III.c.Article III.c.

What What is ais a Lee Ferry Deficit? Lee Ferry Deficit?

- plus -- plus -

The Basin Study assumed 75maf/10 yearsThe Basin Study assumed 75maf/10 years

• Could lead to a legal curtailment under the Could lead to a legal curtailment under the 1922 & 1948 Compacts1922 & 1948 Compacts

• A curtailment could shut down post A curtailment could shut down post Compact uses such as cities & power plants Compact uses such as cities & power plants - with serious economic consequences- with serious economic consequences

• Article VIII Article VIII of the 1922 Compact: present of the 1922 Compact: present perfected rights . . . are unimpaired by this perfected rights . . . are unimpaired by this Compact Compact

Implications Implications of aof a Lee Ferry Deficit Lee Ferry Deficit

• To To ↑↑ flow at Lee Ferry must flow at Lee Ferry must ↓↓consumption consumption

• In Western Colorado 90% of agricultural In Western Colorado 90% of agricultural CU is hay, pasture grasses & alfalfaCU is hay, pasture grasses & alfalfa

• In Western Colorado 90% of municipal CU In Western Colorado 90% of municipal CU is outdoor use is outdoor use (parks & lawns)(parks & lawns)

Conservation strategies Conservation strategies forfor in-basin in-basin uses uses differentdifferent than for than for exports! exports!

Strategies Strategies toto Manage Risk Manage Risk of a of a Curtailment Curtailment

• Use CU from pre-compact rights to survive Use CU from pre-compact rights to survive a curtailmenta curtailment

• Use CU from conservation of agriculture Use CU from conservation of agriculture & municipalities to avoid a compact & municipalities to avoid a compact (grass management) (grass management)

• Many, many issues to resolve! Many, many issues to resolve!