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Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.1
Volatility
Chapter 9
Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.2
Definition of Volatility
The volatility σ of a variable is the standard
deviation of its return per unit of time (one year,
one day) with the return being expressed with
continuous compounding
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.3
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0
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TT
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Definition of Volatility
Example:
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.4
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pricestock in the movedeviation standardoneA
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Some points concerning volatility
The variance rate is the square of volatility
Standard deviation of returns increase with
the square root of time, the variance of this
return increases linearly with time
Normally days when markets are closed
are ignored in volatility calculations (252
days per year)
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.5
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.6
Implied Volatilities
Implied volatilities are the volatilities
implied from option prices
Of the variables needed to price an option
the one that cannot be observed directly is
volatility
We can therefore imply volatilities from
market prices and vice versa
Options, Futures, and Other Derivatives, 7th Edition, Copyright © John C. Hull 2008 7
Estimating Volatility from
Historical Data
1. Take observations S0, S1, . . . , Sn at intervals of t years
2. Calculate the continuously compounded return in each interval as:
3. Calculate the standard deviation, s , of the ui´s
4. The historical volatility estimate is:
uS
Si
i
i
ln1
t
sˆ
Are Daily Percentage Changes in
Financial Variables Normal?
The Black-Scholes-Merton Model
assumes that asset prices change
continuously and have constant volatility.
This means that the return in a short
period of time Δt always has a normal
distribution with a standard deviation of
.
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.8
t
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.9
Daily movements of 12 different
exchange rates over ten years
Real World (%) Normal Model (%)
>1 SD 25.04 31.73
>2SD 5.27 4.55
>3SD 1.34 0.27
>4SD 0.29 0.01
>5SD 0.08 0.00
>6SD 0.03 0.00
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.10
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.11
An Alternative to Normal
Distributions: The Power Law
The value v of the variable satisfies
Prob(v > x) = Kx-a
For x large, where K and α are constants
This seems to fit the behavior of the returns
on many market variables better than the
normal distribution
The Power Law
Example:
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.12
... 0.0019,30)Pr(v
0.0062520)Pr(v
estimate can weand ,50:Then
05.0)10Pr(:nObservatio
3 law withpower a Suppose
K
v
a
The Power Law
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.13
holds lawpower ether thecan test w we
,lnagainst x)](vPr[ln plottingby So
lnlnx)](vPr[ln
have We
x
xK-α
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.14
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.15
Monitoring Daily Volatility
Define n as the volatility per day between
day n-1 and day n, as estimated at end of day
n-1
Define Si as the value of market variable at
end of day i
Define ui= ln(Si/Si-1)
n n ii
m
n ii
m
mu u
um
u
2 2
1
1
1
1
1
( )
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.16
Simplifications Usually Made in
Risk Management
Define ui as (Si-Si-1)/Si-1
Assume that the mean value of ui is zero
Replace m-1 by m
This gives
n n ii
m
mu2 2
1
1
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.17
Weighting Scheme
Instead of assigning equal weights to the
observations we can set
a
a
n i n ii
m
ii
m
u2 2
1
1
1
where
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.18
ARCH(m) Model
In an ARCH(m) model we also assign
some weight to the long-run variance rate,
VL:
a
a
m
i
i
m
i iniLn uV
1
1
22
1
where
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.19
EWMA Model
In an exponentially weighted moving
average (EWMA) model, the weights
assigned to the u2 decline exponentially as
we move back through time, i.e.
where λ is between 0 and 1
This leads to2
1
2
1
2 )1( nnn u
ii aa 1
EWMA Model
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.20
12
1
2
22
1
12
2
2
22
2
2
1
2
2
1
2
1
2
2
1
)1(for
as same theisequation thism, largefor
)1(
thatsee we way,in this continuing
))(1(
get to
)1(
in for Substitute
i
iin
m
i
in
mn
m
in
m
i
i
n
nnnn
nnn
n
u
u
uu
u
aa
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.21
Attractions of EWMA
Relatively little data needs to be stored
We need only remember the current estimate of the variance rate and the most recent observation on the market variable
Tracks volatility changes
RiskMetrics uses = 0.94 for daily volatility forecasting
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.22
The GARCH (1,1) Model
In GARCH (1,1) we assign some weight to
the long-run average variance rate
Since weights must sum to 1
a b 1
2
1
2
1
2
ba nnLn uV
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.23
GARCH (1,1) continued
Setting w V the GARCH (1,1) model
reads as
and
w
ba
w
1LV
2
1
2
1
2
baw nnn u
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.24
Example
Suppose
The long-run variance rate is 0.0002 so
that the long-run volatility per day is 1.4%
0002.0
01.086.013.011
86.013.0000002.0 2
1
2
1
2
LL
nnn
VV
u
w
ba
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.25
Example continued
Suppose that the current estimate of the
volatility is 1.6% per day and the most
recent percentage change in the market
variable is 1%.
The new variance rate is
The new volatility is 1.53% per day
0 000002 013 0 0001 086 0 000256 0 00023336. . . . . .
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.28
Maximum Likelihood Methods
In maximum likelihood methods we
choose parameters that maximize the
likelihood of the observations occurring
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.29
Example 1
We observe that a certain event happens one time in ten trials. What is our estimate of the proportion of the time, p, that it happens?
The probability of the outcome is
We maximize this to obtain a maximum likelihood estimate: p=0.1
9)1( pp
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.30
Example 2
Estimate the variance of observations from a
normal distribution with mean zero
Maximize:
or:
This gives:
1
2 2
1
2
1
2
1
2
1
v
u
v
vu
v
vn
u
i
i
n
i
i
n
i
i
n
exp
ln( )
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.31
Application to GARCH (1,1)
We choose parameters that maximize
ln( )vu
vi
i
ii
n 2
1
Application to GARCH (1,1),
Example
The next table analyzes data on the
Japanese yen exchange rate between
January 6, 1988, and August 15, 1997.
The numbers are based on trial estimates
of the three parameters: ω, α, β.
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.32
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.33
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.34
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.35
Variance Targeting
One way of implementing GARCH(1,1)
that increases stability is by using variance
targeting
We set the long-run average volatility
equal to the sample variance
Only two other parameters then have to be
estimated
How Good is the Model?
The assumption underlying a GARCH
model is that volatility changes with the
passage of time, during some periods
high, during others relatively low. In other
words, when is high, there is a tendency
for to be high and vice versa.
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.36
2
iu
,..., 2
2
2
1 ii uu
How Good is the Model?
So assuming that the exhibit
autocorrelation. If a GARCH model is
working well, the autocorrelation for the
variables should be very small.
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.37
2
iu
22 / iiu
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.38
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.39
How Good is the Model?
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.40
Forecasting Future Volatility
A few lines of algebra shows that
fleeingmean :1
revertingmean :1
)()(][ 22
ba
ba
ba Ln
k
Lkn VVE
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.41
Volatility Term Structures
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.42
]V)[V(aT
eVV(t)dt
T
]V)[V(eVV(t)
βα
], aE[σV(t)
L
T aT
L
L
at
L
tn
011
T andday between to
day per rate varianceaverage The
0
then1
ln
Define
0
2
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.43
Forecasting Future Volatility
The volatility per year for an option lasting
T days is
L
aT
L VVaT
eVT )0(
1252)(
Risk Management and Financial Institutions, Chapter 5, Copyright © John C. Hull 2006 5.44
Volatility Term Structures
The GARCH (1,1) model allows us to
predict volatility term structures changes
When (0) changes by (0), GARCH
(1,1) predicts that (T) changes by
)}252
)0((
1{252(T)
because ),0()(
)0(1
22
L
aT
L
aT
VaT
eV
TaT
e