Risk Introduction

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Korea Advanced Institute of Science and Technology OSE551 Reliability and Risk Analysis for Offshore Plants Daejun CHANG ([email protected] ) Division of Ocean Systems Engineering Risk Analysis: Introduction

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Risk Introduction

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Page 1: Risk Introduction

Korea Advanced Institute ofScience and Technology

OSE551 Reliability and Risk Analysis for Offshore Plants

Daejun CHANG ([email protected])

Division of Ocean Systems Engineering

Risk Analysis:Introduction

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-1-Ocean Systems Engineering

Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Basic termsBasic terms

Hazard 1

Hazard 2

Hazard 3

. . .

Hazard N

Consequence 1

Consequence 2

Consequence 3

. . .

Consequence M

Hum

an (s

afet

y)

Faci

lity/

Pro

duct

ion

(ass

et)

Envi

ronm

ent

Accident

Hazard Accident Consequence Impact

Ø Hazard: A condition that is prerequisite to mishapØ Accident: An unplanned event resulting on consequences that has impact on

humans, asset, and environment.Ø Risk = Frequency x Consequence

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Consequence × Frequency = Risk

Consequence Frequency Risk

Death/Accident Accident/yr Death/yr (Fatality)

US$/Accident Accident/yr US$/yr (Asset)

Damage/Oil spill Oil Spill/yr Damage/yr (Environmental)

Failure/km km/yr Failure/yr (HMC, KTX)

… … …

Risk is expressed as loss per time.Fatality is the critical issue.

Dimension of riskDimension of risk

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Protection layers for ocean plantsProtection layers for ocean plants

Inherent Safety Design(Layout, Inventory, Structural Integrity, Ignition)

Basic Process Control System (BPCS)(P, T, F, Surge, Back Pressure)

Accident Mitigating Protection(Active/Passive Fire Protection, Fire/Blast Walls)

Emergency Response(Escape Route, TR, Evacuation Means, Rescue Equipment, Emergency Power)

Accident Preventive Protection(Relief, PSV, F&G Detection, ESD, Depressurization)

Accident:Fire/Explosion

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Conceptual DesignConceptual Design

Basic Design (FEED)Basic Design (FEED)

Detail DesignDetail Design

FabricationFabrication

Hazard Register

Hazard Registerwith measures

Hazard IdentificationPreliminary Risk Analysis

Hazard IdentificationQualitative Risk Analysis

Quantitative Risk Analysis

Quantitative Risk Analysis

ALARP: As Low As Reasonably PracticableFEED: Front-End Eng’g & Design

Repeat design until risk is ALARP

Risk-based design

OurCapability

Range

OurBusiness

Scope

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Various design approachesVarious design approaches

Ø Basic philosophy§ Rule-based (regulatory) design

- Condition à design specification§ Performance-based design

- Scenario à simulation à design§ Risk-based design

- Risk evaluation à Design change if the risk is unacceptable.

Ø Which is superior?

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Role of risk analysis

Goals• Fatality < 0.001 death/yr• Production Availability > 95%• Liquid Spill (16 m3) < 0.1 /yr• Asset Loss (25x106$) < 0.01/yr

FireFire

ExplosionExplosion

RadiationRadiation

CollisionCollision

. . . . . .

Hazards

Eng Discipline: Process, Structure, Mechanical, Reliability, Fluid Mechanics, . . .

Methodology: HAZID, HAZOP, What-if, FMEA, SIL, FTA, ETA, . . .

Risk Analysis• Fire Risk Analysis• Explosion Risk Analysis• Radiation Study• Ship Collision Study• . . .

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Risks to be addressed

Fire Explosion Dispersion & Radiation

Dropped Object Ship Collision

Plus•Field Layout Assessment•Emergency Depressurization•Pipeline & Riser Hydraulics•Escape & Evacuation•Helicopter Operation•Fatality Estimation•Others if requested

Ocean plant design is like a R&D process without any fixed boundaryrelying on risk-based design.

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Ø Quantitative Risk AnalysisØ Fire and Explosion Risk

• Gas Dispersion Analysis• Fire Risk Analysis• Explosion Risk Analysis

Ø Maintenance• Dropped Object Study

Ø Emergency and Escape• Escape, Evacuation and Rescue Analysis (EERA)• Emergency System Survivability Assessment (ESSA)• Flare Radiation Study

Ø Occupational • Exhaust Dispersion Study• Vibration & Noise Study• Transportation Risk Analysis• Ship Collision Study

What kinds of risk analysis?

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

System AnalysisSystem Analysis

Hazard IdentificationHazard Identification

ConsequenceConsequenceAnalysisAnalysis

FrequencyFrequencyAnalysisAnalysis

Risk EvaluationRisk Evaluation

Design ApplicationDesign Application

Universal procedure for risk analysisUniversal procedure for risk analysis

This procedure applies to all the risk analyses with minor modifications.è HAZID, HAZOP, FMECA, Fire & Explosion Analysis

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Brief HistoryBrief History

1975 QRA for Reactor Safety Study for nuclear power pants (WASH-1400)

1981 Norwegian Petroleum Directorate (NPD) issued the guideline for offshore safety evaluation with cut-off frequency of 10-4/yr for design accidents

1988 Piper Alpha Platform accidents

1990 Lord Cullen report on Piper Alpha Platform accidents with QRA recommendation

1991 NPD’s new regulation for risk analysis1992 UK’s safety case regulations1998 BFETS (Blast and Fire Engineering for Topside) research on explosion

2000’s Modifications of UK safety case and NPD regulations2000’s FSA and GBS in IMO for shipping and shipbuilding industries

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Preliminary Q&APreliminary Q&A

Ø Quantitative risk assessment vs. Qualitative risk assessmentØ QRA vs. the othersØ Work procedure for risk analysis

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Ø Quantitative Risk AnalysisØ Fire and Explosion Risk

• Gas Dispersion Analysis• Fire Risk Analysis• Explosion Risk Analysis

Ø Maintenance• Dropped Object Study

Ø Emergency and Escape• Escape, Evacuation and Rescue Analysis (EERA)• Emergency System Survivability Assessment (ESSA)• Flare Radiation Study

Ø Occupational • Exhaust Dispersion Study• Vibration & Noise Study• Transportation Risk Analysis• Ship Collision Study

Which is of qualitative analysis?

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Typical qualitative analyses

Ø HAZIDØ HAZOPØ FMECAØ FTAØ ETAØ . . .

è Decision making is hard on qualitative basisè The approaches are carried out with quantitative consideration

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Quantitative vs. Qualitative Risk AssessmentQuantitative vs. Qualitative Risk Assessment

Ø Literal meaningØ Risk analysis is intrinsically quantitative.Ø QRA = Quantitative Risk Assessment =

§ Probabilistic Risk Assessment§ Probabilistic Safety Assessment§ Concept Safety Evaluation § Total Risk Analysis

Ø In commercial projects, QRA is a kind of§ Assessment of HSE + asset risk§ More weight on safety and asset§ Various studies are required and they are submitted as

separated report.§ Typically, the QRA means an integrated report covering all the

major findings of other reports

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Offshore Process Eng Lab.Prof. Daejun CHANG

Explosion Risk Analysis (CFD)Fire Risk Analysis

Escape, Evacuation and Rescue Analysis

Dropped Object StudyExhaust Gas Dispersion Study

SIL AllocationSIL Assessment

QRA

PFP Study(Missing Member)

Production Availability / FMEAHAZID

Emergency SystemSurvivability Ass’mt

HAZOP

HIPS Reliability Study

Safety Study WorkflowSafety Study Workflow

Hazard and Risk Register System


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