Risk Course_Slides_Nov 2016 v2
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Transcript of Risk Course_Slides_Nov 2016 v2
Copyright © 2016 R&O ANALYTICS Pty Ltd. All rights reserved
By Dr. Luis Martinez Tipe
Uncertainty = Risk + Opportunity in Mine Planning
Copyright © 2016 R&O ANALYTICS Pty Ltd. All rights reserved
What is the effect of the ‘What if..?’ uncertainties on project economics/What are the best strategies to follow
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Copyright © 2016 R&O ANALYTICS Pty Ltd. All rights reserved
Despite uncertainty being all about us, uncertainty is often denied....why?
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One reason for suppression is clear: People do not like to be unsure and instead prefer to have everything sharply defined
Copyright © 2016 R&O ANALYTICS Pty Ltd. All rights reserved
There is still some reliance from decision makers in working with a given expected mine value number ..Why?
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“the flaw of averages in mine project evaluation”
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Mining imperative calls for new alternatives and tools to analyse and evaluate a mine operation in the face of uncertainty
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Mining companies can’t just dabble at the edges by keep using
traditional processes and techniques which do not consider uncertainty.
Time
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General mine project simulation-optimisation framework
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Mine Planning is a Non- Linear process
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Quantifying the effect of the uncertainty in orebody modelling
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Quantifying the effect of the uncertainty in metal prices
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Uncertainty and risk in open pit mine planning and design (ultimate pit and production scheduling final limits)
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Going beyond risk analysis
Sunday, 30 October 2016
So, What can we do to protect from uncertainty?How can we minimise risk and maximise opportunities…
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Real options as tool to manage uncertainty in decision making
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Silver project valuation – using DCF
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Dynamic discounted cash flow and ENPV = NPV + ValOption
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ValOption = $9.68 - $8.49 = $1.19
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Silver project - real options analysis
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Copyright © 2016 R&O ANALYTICS Pty Ltd. All rights reserved
Add value by identifying optimal strategies over time in the face of uncertainty
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Shift of paradigm from numbers to
distribution of probabilities