Risk Assessment – all risks approachRisk Assessment – all risks approach

John F. RingJohn F. RingBE, Dip.OSH, Dip.SHWW ,Dip.Env.Eng., MIITD, MIFS, MIOSH, Eur Ing BE, Dip.OSH, Dip.SHWW ,Dip.Env.Eng., MIITD, MIFS, MIOSH, Eur Ing

C.Eng.MIEI. C.Eng.MIEI.

College Safety Officer, UCC College Safety Officer, UCC

Application of Risk AssessmentApplication of Risk Assessment

EU/ IRL Legislative RequirementEU/ IRL Legislative Requirement

Safety Management Safety Management

Risk ManagementRisk Management

The Law & Risk Assessment The Law & Risk Assessment

A Safety Statement A Safety Statement must be based on a must be based on a completed risk completed risk assessmentassessment

Risk Assessments Risk Assessments must be maintained must be maintained and up-dated.and up-dated.

HSA Inspectors in HSA Inspectors in Cork require to see Cork require to see Risk Assessments as Risk Assessments as follows:follows:

Job, room, area, Job, room, area, equipment, activity, equipment, activity, process basisprocess basis

Application of Risk AssessmentApplication of Risk Assessment Safety ManagementSafety Management Prioritise safety action Prioritise safety action

programme.programme. Rank and prioritise safety Rank and prioritise safety

audit findings.audit findings. Evaluate benefit of Evaluate benefit of

accident prevention accident prevention measures & costingsmeasures & costings..

Risk ManagementRisk Management Relative ranking of Relative ranking of

various types of risks various types of risks ( all potential losses)( all potential losses)

Prioritise actions.Prioritise actions. Prioritise expenditure Prioritise expenditure

(via risk and risk (via risk and risk reduction benefitsreduction benefits))

Types of Risk AssessmentTypes of Risk Assessment

1.1. QuantitativeQuantitative Scientific studies & Scientific studies &

measurementsmeasurements Comparison of results Comparison of results

with limit valueswith limit values Occ. Hygiene, Noise, Occ. Hygiene, Noise,

Structural design, Structural design, Ergonomics etc.Ergonomics etc.

2.2. Qualitative Qualitative Semi-scientific or Semi-scientific or

non scientificnon scientific Judgement decisions Judgement decisions Professional and Professional and

personal experiences/ personal experiences/ biases. biases.

Codes of PracticeCodes of Practice

Qualitative Risk Assessment (1)Qualitative Risk Assessment (1)

‘‘Decide’ on risk level Decide’ on risk level using judgement, using judgement, experience and experience and technical knowledgetechnical knowledge

Low or MediumLow or Medium High or Very HighHigh or Very High

Extremely SubjectiveExtremely Subjective Personal and individual Personal and individual

variations!variations! May not be ‘bought in May not be ‘bought in

to’ by any medium to to’ by any medium to large scale organisationlarge scale organisation

Qualitative Risk Assessment (2)Qualitative Risk Assessment (2)

Use a numerical Use a numerical model to assess risk.model to assess risk.

Probability and Probability and consequence modelsconsequence models

Judgement, technical Judgement, technical knowledge and knowledge and experience required.experience required.

Subjectivity remainsSubjectivity remains A good model reduces A good model reduces

personal & individual personal & individual biases/ variations !!biases/ variations !!

Could be ‘bought in to’ Could be ‘bought in to’ by any medium to by any medium to large scale companylarge scale company

Problems with Numerical ModelsProblems with Numerical Models

‘‘Every’ risk is either Very High or Low!Every’ risk is either Very High or Low! Assessments often do not relate to reality!Assessments often do not relate to reality! Results are easily rubbished!Results are easily rubbished! Not seen to be very scientific!Not seen to be very scientific! Users may not be considered ‘professional’ Users may not be considered ‘professional’ Non- life risks are generally not covered. Non- life risks are generally not covered. How can other risk priorities be compared?How can other risk priorities be compared?

Risk Nomogram in use at UCCRisk Nomogram in use at UCC

Source: Source: Dr. Hani Raafat Dr. Hani Raafat of Aston Univof Aston Univ..

Economic, Life and Economic, Life and Environment Risk Types Environment Risk Types (on 1 model)(on 1 model)

Graded ConsequencesGraded Consequences Probability /FrequencyProbability /Frequency Exposure durationExposure duration

Semi-scientificSemi-scientific Easy to UseEasy to Use Well receivedWell received Risk Assessment by Risk Assessment by

Dept. (devolved)Dept. (devolved) Little variations in useLittle variations in use Good spread of results Good spread of results

Risk Nomogram Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat Dr. Hani Raafat

Four Types of Risk ConsequencesFour Types of Risk Consequences

1.1. Economic (6 categories)Economic (6 categories)

2.2. Personnel (6 categories)Personnel (6 categories)

3.3. Public and Reaction (6 categories)Public and Reaction (6 categories)

4.4. Environment (6 categories)Environment (6 categories)

Risk Nomogram Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani RaafatDr. Hani Raafat

Risk Consequence 1Risk Consequence 1:: EconomicEconomic

Category I < €1 kCategory I < €1 k Category II < €10 kCategory II < €10 k Category III < €100 kCategory III < €100 k Category IV < €1 mCategory IV < €1 m Category V > €1 mCategory V > €1 m Category VI Category VI Total LossTotal Loss

Risk Nomogram Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani RaafatDr. Hani Raafat

Risk Consequence 2Risk Consequence 2 : : PersonnelPersonnel

Category I : Category I : Insignificant Insignificant Category II : Category II : MinorMinor Category III :Category III : Major Major Category IV : Category IV : SevereSevere Category V : Category V : FatalityFatality Category VI : Category VI : Multiple FatalitiesMultiple Fatalities

Definitions:Definitions: Effects on PersonnelEffects on Personnel

InsignificantInsignificant: No human injury expected or < : No human injury expected or < 3 days lost time 3 days lost time

MinorMinor: Injury/ Illness, 3 – 28 or 56 days lost : Injury/ Illness, 3 – 28 or 56 days lost time, full recovery expected.time, full recovery expected.

MajorMajor: Injury/Illness, 28 + or 56+ days lost time, : Injury/Illness, 28 + or 56+ days lost time, or permanent slight incapacityor permanent slight incapacity

SevereSevere:: Permanent incapacitating injury/ Permanent incapacitating injury/ illnessillness..

Risk Nomogram Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani RaafatDr. Hani Raafat

Risk Consequence 3:Risk Consequence 3: Public and ReactionPublic and Reaction

Category I : Category I : Nuisance ( Mild reaction)Nuisance ( Mild reaction) Category II : Category II : Complaints ( Minor local outcry)Complaints ( Minor local outcry) Category III:Category III: GP attendances /Complaints ++.) GP attendances /Complaints ++.) Category IV: Category IV: Hospitalisation or Local Media attn Hospitalisation or Local Media attn Category V : Category V : Serious Injury or National Media attnSerious Injury or National Media attn Category VI : Category VI : Fatality or Govt & Media attnFatality or Govt & Media attn

Risk Nomogram Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani RaafatDr. Hani Raafat

Risk Consequence 4:Risk Consequence 4: EnvironmentEnvironment

Category I : Category I : Insignificant Insignificant Category II : Category II : Temp. Short Term DamageTemp. Short Term Damage Category III :Category III : Major Pollution Major Pollution Category IV : Category IV : Severe PollutionSevere Pollution Category V : Category V : Widespread DamageWidespread Damage Category VI : Category VI : Catastrophic DamageCatastrophic Damage

Risk Nomogram Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani RaafatDr. Hani Raafat

Probability (Likelihood):Probability (Likelihood): Ratings/ExperiencesRatings/Experiences

1 in 10 oror 10 -1 (Frequent)(Frequent) 1 in 100 oror 10 -2 (Probable)(Probable) 1 in 1,000 oror 10 -3 (Occasional.) (Occasional.) 1 in 10,000 oror 10 -4 (Remote)(Remote) 1 in 100,000 oror 10 -5 (Improbable)(Improbable) 1 in 1,000,000 oror 10 -6 (Extremely remote)(Extremely remote)

Risk Nomogram Dr. Hani Raafat

Exposure to Hazard: Time (% of 24 hr day)

< 1 % (very rare) 1 % (rare) 25 % 50 % 75 % 100 % (continuous)

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Risk Calculator

• Low (A)

• Moderate (B)

• High (D)

I

II

III

V

VI

Risk types1 to 4

Risk Conseq. Exposure

( % time)

<1%

1%

25%

50%

( 24 hr day)

75%100%

iv

Frequency

Frequent (10 -1 )

Probable (10 -2 )

Occasional (10 -3 )

Remote (10 - 4 )

Improbable (10 -5 )

Extremely Remote (10 -6 )

• Substantial (C)

Risk Level

Life Risk Case Study ALife Risk Case Study A ( Risk Type: Staff safety) ( Risk Type: Staff safety)

Unguarded machine – potential for limb Unguarded machine – potential for limb amputationamputation

Regular breakdowns and cloggingRegular breakdowns and clogging untrained operatorsuntrained operators No maintenance proceduresNo maintenance procedures 6 hours operation /day = 25% of 24 hr day6 hours operation /day = 25% of 24 hr day Regular accidents Regular accidents

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Risk Calculator

• Low (A)

• Moderate (B)

• High (D)

I

II

III

V

VI

Risk types1 to 4

Risk Conseq. Exposure

( % time)

<1%

1%

25%

50%

( 24 hr day)

75%100%

iv

Frequency

Frequent (10 -1 )

Probable (10 -2 )

Occasional (10 -3 )

Remote (10 - 4 )

Improbable (10 -5 )

Extremely Remote (10 -6 )

• Substantial (C)

Risk Level

1 1

Improvement Option 1Improvement Option 1

Train staff and provide PPE ( traditional Train staff and provide PPE ( traditional response!)response!)

Same operating hours & machine set upSame operating hours & machine set up

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Risk Calculator

• Low (A)

• Moderate (B)

• High (D)

I

II

III

V

VI

Risk types1 to 4

Risk Conseq. Exposure

( % time)

<1%

1%

25%

50%

( 24 hr day)

75%100%

iv

Frequency

Frequent (10 -1 )

Probable (10 -2 )

Occasional (10 -3 )

Remote (10 - 4 )

Improbable (10 -5 )

Extremely Remote (10 -6 )

• Substantial (C)

Risk Level

# 1# 1

Improvement Option 2Improvement Option 2

Train staff and provide PPE has been Train staff and provide PPE has been triedtried

Consider reducing operating hours to 3 Consider reducing operating hours to 3 hours per day = 12.5% of a 24 hour dayhours per day = 12.5% of a 24 hour day

Retain machine set up ( un-guarded)Retain machine set up ( un-guarded)

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Risk Calculator

• Low (A)

• Moderate (B)

• High (D)

I

II

III

V

VI

Risk types1 to 4

Risk Conseq. Exposure

( % time)

<1%

1%

25%

50%

( 24 hr day)

75%100%

iv

Frequency

Frequent (10 -1 )

Probable (10 -2 )

Occasional (10 -3 )

Remote (10 - 4 )

Improbable (10 -5 )

Extremely Remote (10 -6 )

• Substantial (C)

Risk Level

# 2

# 2

Improvement Option 3Improvement Option 3

Guard the machine / provide appropriate interlocks, emergency shut off devices, power isolation facilities

Introduce maintenance lock off systems and permit to work

Train staff, resume normal hours Maintain the equipment

Tie Line

Risk Calculator

• Low (A)

• Moderate (B)

• High (D)

I

II

III

V

VI

Risk types1 to 4

Risk Conseq. Exposure

( % time)

<1%

1%

25%

50%

( 24 hr day)

75%100%

iv

Frequency

Frequent (10 -1 )

Probable (10 -2 )

Occasional (10 -3 )

Remote (10 - 4 )

Improbable (10 -5 )

Extremely Remote (10 -6 )

• Substantial (C)

Risk Level

# 3# 3