Rischio e Previsioni
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Transcript of Rischio e Previsioni
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Capi
tolo
1:
Prev
ision
i
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Anomalia di Urano
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Scoperta di Nettuno
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Anomalia di Mercurio
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Ipotesi di Vulcano
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La Relatività Generale
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Tempo
Con
osce
nza Progres
so
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Laplace vs Napoleone
“Cittadino, ho letto il vostro libro e non capisco come mai non abbiate lasciato spazio all’azione del Creatore”
“Cittadino Primo Console, non ho avuto bisogno di questa ipotesi”
“Ah, questa è un’assunzione bellissima che spiega molte cose!”
“Questa ipotesi, Sire, spiega tutto ma non permettedi prevedere nulla. Come studioso è mio dovere portarle lavori
che permettano di fare previsioni”.
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su una sfera
• Leggi della fluido dinamica • Leggi della termodinamica
Sei equazioni e sei incognite (v, p, ρ, T)
Previsioni Meteo
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Parametrizzazione di altri effetti fisici
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Evoluzione delle previsioni meteo: 2 giorni in 20 anni
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~210km ~125km ~63km ~39km ~25km ~16km
• Migliore risoluzione dei modelli grazie a una maggiore potenza di calcolo
• Migliore precisione delle osservazioni
• Migliore predicibilità nel breve periodo (su scale medie!)
Evoluzione delle previsioni meteo: 2 giorni in 20 anni
~8km
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Temperatura a Londra in due differenti giorni:
differente predicibilità del
sistema
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Può il battito di una farfalla in Brasile causare un tornado in Texas?
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Ciclo Sismico: Emissione dell’energia potenziale elastica accumulata nel tempo
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Ciclo Sismico: Emissione dell’energia potenziale elastica accumulata nel tempo
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Ciclo Sismico: Emissione dell’energia potenziale elastica accumulata nel tempo
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A che serve la sismologia?
• Impossibilità di misurare lo stato del sistema a un certo tempo
• Solo previsioni sul lungo periodo
• Identificazione delle aree sismiche
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Zone Sismiche
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Capi
tolo
2:
Crisi
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“Ipotesi veramente importanti ed efficaci possono basarsi su delle assunzioni che sono rappresentazioni descrittive molto inaccurate della realtà … tali ipotesi e descrizioni
estraggono solo gli elementi cruciali sufficienti a produrre previsioni relativamente precise e valide.”
(Milton Friedman, Essays in Positive Economics, The University of Chicago Press, Chicago 1953.)
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“La storia della fisica nella prima metà del XX secolo è stata una straordinaria avventura intellettuale:
dall’intuizione di Einstein del1905 sull’equivalenza tra massa ed energia alla prima
reazione nuclearecontrollata del 1942. Lo sviluppo della finanza nella
seconda metàdel Novecento ha caratteristiche simili”.
(Luigi Zingales, A Capitalism for the People: “Recapturing the Lost Genius of American Prosperity” 2012)
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Universali e immutabiliLeggi di Natura
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Leggi di Natura
Probabilistiche
Deterministiche
NoteIgnote
Universali e immutabili
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Leggi di Natura
Deterministiche
NoteIgnote
Universali e immutabiliLeggi economiche
?
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“Solo 2 delle 60 recessioni che si sono verificate tra il 1988 e il 1998 sono state
previste con un anno di anticipo”
(Loungani 2001, 430)
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La crisi non è stata prevista perché la teoria economica
predice che questi eventi non possano essere previsti
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La crisi non è stata prevista perché la teoria economica neoclassica assume che questi eventi non possano avvenire e dunque non
possano essere previsti. Dunque è una teoria che non ha nulla a che
fare con la realtà.
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La crisi non è stata prevista perché la teoria economica
predice che questi eventi non possano essere previsti
Equilibrio !!!
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Equilibrium and stability
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Fluttuazioni e Equilibrio
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Fluttuazioni Esogene
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Fluttuazioni Endogene
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More is different“…la realtà ha dunque una
struttura gerarchicae a ogni livello della gerarchia è necessario introdurre
concetti e idee diversi da quelli utilizzati nel livello precedente…”
(P.W. Anderson, Science 1972)
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Sistemi complessi
Studio dei comportamenti emergenti e collettivi di sistemi composti di
un grande numero di elementi interagenti tra loro
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the human braineconomy, markets
animal flocks & swarms
traffic
intracellular systems:gene regulation, protein interactions
social networks
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Da almeno due anni avevo notato alcune rassomiglianze fra la situazione che si era determinata in America negli anni Venti del secolo scorso, un periodo che sboccò nella più grave depressione nella storia del capitalismo, e la situazione che si va delineando oggi in America
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Equilibrium
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1) Crescita dei mercati finanziari migliora l’allocazione del rischio
2) Aumentare la competizione3) Privatizzazione delle industrie statali4) Limitare la possibilità dei governi ad accumulare debiti 5) Limitare l’intervento dello stato per le politiche di
ricerca e innovazione
L’agenda neoliberale
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1) Crescita dei mercati finanziari migliora l’allocazione del rischio
2) Aumentare la competizione3) Privatizzazione delle industrie statali4) Limitare la possibilità dei governi ad accumulare debiti 5) Limitare l’intervento dello stato per le
politiche di ricerca e innovazione
L’agenda neoliberale
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Capi
tolo
4: P
oliti
ca
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• Its aim was to make the EU “the most competitive and dynamic knowledge-based economy in the world capable of sustainable economic growth with more and better jobs and greater social cohesion”, by 2010
• Raise overall R&D investment to 3% of GDP by 2010.
The Lisbon Strategy (March 2000)
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0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
4.5
BerdGerd
2001
Gross Domestic Expenditure on R&D Business Enterprise Expenditure on R&D
Expe
nditu
re o
n R
&D
East
ern
Cou
ntrie
s
Four speed Europe
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Finlan
d
Sweden
Denmark
German
y
Austria
France
Belgium
Netherl
ands
Europe
an U
nion (
28 co
untrie
s)
United
King
dom
Irelan
d
Portug
alSpa
inIta
ly
Greece
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
3
3.5
4
BerdGerd
2012Ex
pend
iture
on
R&
D
East
ern
Cou
ntrie
s
Four speed Europe
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National University Budget: -20%
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Researchers/1000 workers in business enterprisesFi
nlan
d
Dan
mar
k
Swed
en
Fran
ce
Aus
tria
Irel
and
Bel
gium
Ger
man
y
EU15
Net
herla
n d
EU28
UK
Spai
n
Portu
gal
Italy
Gre
ece
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Business Enterprise Expenditure on R&D
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Capi
tolo
3:
Rice
rca
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• Growth of scientific articles number but more rapid growth of the number of retractions
• Increasing role of tecno-evaluation• Large number of PhDs and Postdocs with low salaries and
little possibility of obtaining a permanent position• Small number of élite researchers
The international crisis: some evidences
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Present day higher education and research policy“The rich gets richer and the
poor gets poorer”(competition, evaluation,
meritocracy)
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‘Harvard Here’ Model• “World class university as the panacea for ensuring success in the global economy.
• Continuous evaluation of global capacity and potential
• To conform to indicators set by global rankings:
• governments and institutions make profound changes to their higher education systems,
• pursue more elite agendas,• alter their education programmes, • privilege some disciplines and fields.
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‘Harvard Here’ Model
Does it work?
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GOVERNING
BY
NUMBERS
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• All criteria used are only loosely connected with what they intended to capture.
• Several arbitrary parameters and many micro-decisions that are not documented.
• Flawed and nonsensical aggregation method• «any of our MCDM (Multiple Criteria Decision Making) student
that would have proposed such a methodology in her Master’s Thesis would have surely failed according to our own standards»
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• Harvard operating expenses = 44% founds of all Italian universities• Harvard has 21,000 students 130,000 euro/student • Typically EU: 10,000 euro/student
66 Italian universities
Billi
ons o
f Eur
os
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• (Almost) outsiders researchers
• Marginal labs
• Surprise with respect to the field’s status of the art
Some important discoveries
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High Temperature SuperconductivityNobel Prize in Physics 1987
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High Temperature SuperconductivityNobel Prize in Physics 1987
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High Temperature SuperconductivityNobel Prize in Physics 1987
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Scanning Tunneling microscopeNobel Prize in Physics 1986
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Giant Magneto ResistenceNobel Prize in Physics 2007
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Giant Magneto ResistenceNobel Prize in Physics 2007
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2010
Graphene
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2010
Graphene
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Rischio e Ricerca
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Rischio e Ricerca
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Capi
tolo
4: P
oliti
ca
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EC research funding
• About 10% of National funding• Imitation at the National level of the EC “best practices” • Horizon 2020 (60 billions euros)• Top-down research lines • Curiosity driven programs: ERC / Marie Curie fellowships
Are these really “best practices” for science?
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Research is risk The real problem is to understand whom to reward today, among the large magma of good quality researchers, and how to pick those who would become excellent tomorrow !
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“The history of science has been and should be a history of
competing research programmes ... the sooner the competition
starts, the better for progress.”
(Imre Lakatos, 1970)
Competition of ideas versus competition of people
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Excellence and reality
Rewarding what is today recognised as excellence is trivial !
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“Reinforce excellence, dynamism and creativity of European research"
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“ERC funds excellent researchers”
ERC
Nobel Prize
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We conclude that scientific impact (as reflected by publications) is only weakly limited by funding. We
suggest that funding strategies that target diversity, rather than “excellence”, are likely to
prove to be more productive.
Research is risk
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Research is risk
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Technological leading countries
beyond having the largest production of scientific papers and the largest number
of citations, do not specialize in few scientific domains. Rather, they
diversify as much as possible their research system
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Diversification
thus represents the key element that correlates with scientific and technological
competitiveness
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Science can be effective in the national welfare only as a member of a team, whether the conditions be peace or
war. But without scientific progress no amount of achievement in other direction can insure our health,
prosperity and security as a nation in the modern world
Science The Endless Frontier A Report to the President by Vannevar Bush, Director of the Office
of Scientific Research and Development, July 1945
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The invisible hand is visible and working hard ! W
illia
m H
. Pre
ss
(Sci
ence
15
Nov
embe
r 201
3)
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William H. Press (Science 15 November 2013)
The exponential growth
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Will
iam
H. P
ress
(S
cien
ce 1
5 N
ovem
ber 2
013)
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Innovation requires risk
The key role of the visible hand is to build the infrastructures that are necessary but not sufficient
for the economic development
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Risk in research and innovation requires
• Diversification • Adaptability • Cooperation • Long times
How can I reach the long term if I do not survive in the short one?
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The sacrifice of new generations on the altar of austerity is the loss of a common heritage
Long term problem !
The modern Ifigenia
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There is no effort to cure the R&D lag neither at the national level nor at the European level
There is a net transfer of human and financial resources from South to North
Austerity measures make things worst both on the short and long term
Human resources Infrastructures
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“If you think education is expensive, try ignorance”