Riots: Understanding mindless criminality and the poverty impacts of violence

RIOTS: UNDERSTANDING ‘MINDLESS CRIMINALITY’ AND THE POVERTY IMPACTS OF CIVIL VIOLENCE

JAIDEEP GUPTE, IDS

Two main points to take away from this lecture:

•Why and how riots occur: Not ‘mindless’ nor simply ‘organic’

• There are clear spatial patterns; within–city variations

• Evidence shows an inverse relationship with the State – occur in ‘vacuums’.

• Impacts of riots: Range of impacts at different levels

• Obvious, short-term: Damages to life, property• Longer-term: psychosocial impacts; recursive

mechanisms which perpetuate the violence.

‘Civil violence’ – public acts of violence and disorder directed either against the State or between groups of people.

What’s civil about violence?

Rioting, public fights, stone pelting, damaging public space and property, bottle/missile throwing, looting, arson, tyre burning.

Why and how riots occur?

1844 Philadelphia Riots1771 Moscow

1863 New York

2011 London1992 Mumbai

18th Cent. England


Routine civil violence vs. flare-upsWhy look at the ‘routine’?

- Arguable that it has more deep rooted causes and impacts- Allows us to look at the long term, cyclical, factors- Allows us to question whether there are similarities between flare-ups and routine violence

- Some evidence that the two might be related phenomenon and can often be traced back to a similar trajectory


How routine is routine?

1953195519571959196119631965196719691971197319751977197919801982198419861988199019921994199519971999200120032005

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

Riots

Murders

Banditry

India

Source: Crime in India, Govt of India, various years


Maharashtra1950 (

8)

1951

1952

1953 (

1)

1954

1955 (

2)

1956 (

1)

1957

1958

1959

1960

1961

1962 (

4)

1963 (

1)

1964

1965 (

3)

1966 (

3)

1967 (

2)

1968 (

3)

1969 (

3)

1970 (

18)

1971

1972 (

1)

1973(5

)1974 (

7)

1975 (

6)

1976

1977 (

3)

1978 (

3)

1979

1980 (

7)

1981 (

5)

1982 (

12)

1983 (

12)

1984 (

9)

1985 (

7)

1986 (

26)

1987 (

15)

1988 (

3)

1989 (

5)

1990 (

7)

1991 (

1)

1992 (

10)

1993 (

6)

1994

1995 (

1)

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

4500

Hindu - Muslim riots in Maharastra - Killed, Injured, Arrested 1950-1995 (Number of riots in each year shown in brackets)

Killed Injured Arrested

Varshney-Wilkinson 2004; Jaffrelot 1996; Others


-What do we know?- Riots are borne out of Institutionalised Riot Systems: hierarchical

structures deep rooted within society. Paul Brass (Theft of an Idol) tells us that the triggering of riots is not as spontaneous a phenomenon as it might seem. ‘Riot Captains’ direct teams of people specifically positioned to instigate public fights.

- Riots are closely related with electoral cycles: Steven Wilkinson shows us that when the incumbent government relies on votes from the ‘grievance group’, it prevents riots.

- Riots result out of a break down of civic engagement: Ashutosh Varshney shows us a strong correlation between low levels of institutionalised civic engagement (bowling alone) in cities and riots.

- Social friction is underpinned by horizontal inequalities (Francis Stewart).

Civil violence: interaction with State and society


-What we don’t know:- How riots interact with non-elected State institutions

(Administrative, Punitive, Correctional).

1. Visibly represent state authority; punitive and correctional functions directly confront disorder, and so share a close interface

2. The state’s redistributive functions are dependent on its administrative bodies and so these are deeply connected with social outcomes.

3. Non-elected state institutions, like urban planning departments, significantly alter the public spaces in which civil violence unfolds.

Civil violence: interaction with State and society


Evidence from Maharashtra

307,731 km2 112,372,972

people 80.2% Hindu 10.6% Muslim


Sampling: using voting booths

Thane

Nasik

DhuleJalgaon

AurangabadJalna

BuldhanaAkola

WashimYavatmal

WardhaNagpurBhandaraGondia

Chandrapur

Gadchiroli

Nandurbar

Amravati

Nanded

HingoliParbhani

Latur

Bid

Osmanabad

Solapur

Sangli

Satara

Pune

AhmadnagarMumbai

Raigadh

Ratnagiri

Kolhapur

Sindhudurgh

MirajIchalkaranji

Thane/Bhiwandi

Malegaon

Dhule City

Buldhana City

Khamgaon

Jalgaon/Jamod

Osmanabad

Nanded

PusadDigras

Mumbai

45 Survey sites- ‘Voting booth zones’ (groups of ~200 households) chosen to match most recent violence (based on pre-interviewing; media reports; studies)

- Higher number of sites with fewer HHs per site

- Randomisation ensured incidence and non-incidence sites

- Takes into account: incidence, endemic, criminality, administrative divisions and geographic regions.


Measuring space

Mandir; Masjid; Convent; Church; Cemetery-Muslim; Cemetery-Hindu; Police; Municipal Office; Courts; Jail; Post Office; TV Tower / Offices; Bus Stand; Health Facilities; Schools; College - University; Market; Cinema; Library; Gym; Stadium; Fort; Statue; Tower; Gate; Chowk; Swamp; Canal; Railway; River; Garden; Field; Open Area; Lake; Hills / Mountains; Ground; Playground; Bridge


Measuring space

Aggregated Variable Spatial features

‘Christian’: Convent, Church‘Hindu’: Mandir, Cemetery-Hindu‘Muslim’ Masjid, Cemetery-Muslim

‘Religious’: All of the above‘State – Punitive’: Police, Courts, Jail

‘State – Administrative’: Post-office, Municipal Office

‘State – Services’: Bus-stand, TV-tower‘State – Symbols’ Stadium, Fort, Statue, Tower, Gate

‘State’ All of the above‘Social spaces’: Market, Cinema, Library, Gym

‘Educational facility’: Schools, College, University

‘Bottlenecks’Chowks, Bridges, River, Canal, Railway,

Lake, Hills/Mountains

‘Gathering places’Play ground, Ground, Open Area, Swamp,

Garden, Field


Victims versus non-victims

VariableObs

Non-Victims Sites

Victims Sites

All Sites 35 28.6 71.4Religious -

Hindu 33 27.3 72.7Religious -

Muslim 24 29.2 70.8Religious - Christian 3 33.3 66.7

Religious - All 35 28.6 71.4State - Punitive 14 28.6 71.4

State - Administrative 11 45.5 54.6State - Services 6 33.3 66.7State - Symbols 13 23.1 76.9

State - All 24 37.5 62.5Social Spaces 20 25.0 75.0

Health Facilities 19 26.32 73.68

Educational Facilities 23 30.4 69.6

Bottlenecks 31 29.0 71.0Gathering

Places 28 28.6 71.4


But who is a ‘victim’?

“Acute”Those were physically hurt or reported

damages to financial or physical assets

“Non-Acute”Those who saw or said they experienced

public violence, but were not physically hurt or did not report damages to financial or physical assets

Might also suggest two modalities of violence


Nearest neighbours

HHS clustered around roads, rivers, other features

Non-acute victims randomly dispersed

Evidence of ‘organic riots’

Acute and non-acute victims

VariableObs

Non-Victims Sites

Non-Acute Victims Sites

Acute Victims Sites

All Sites 35 28.6 31.4 40.0Religious -

Hindu 33 27.3 30.3 42.4Religious -

Muslim 24 29.2 29.2 41.7Religious - Christian 3 33.3 33.3 33.3

Religious - All 35 28.6 31.4 40.0

State - Punitive 14 28.6 57.1 14.3

(Police)(13) (30.77) (61.54) (7.69)

State - Administrative 11 45.5 36.4 18.2

State - Services 6 33.3 50.0 16.7State -

Symbols 13 23.1 46.2 30.8State - All 24 37.5 41.7 20.8

Social Spaces 20 25.0 25.0 50.0Health

Facilities 19 26.32 31.58 42.11Educational

Facilities 23 30.4 30.4 39.1Bottlenecks 31 29.0 32.3 38.7Gathering

Places 28 28.6 35.7 35.7


How about intensity of violence?

VariableObs

Low-peaceful

Medium Intensity

High Intensity

All Sites 35 34.3 31.4 34.3Non-Victims 35 34.3 31.4 34.3Non-Acute

Victims 25 24.0 28.0 48.0Acute Victims 14 7.1 28.6 64.3

Religious - Hindu 33 33.3 30.3 36.4Religious -

Muslim 24 33.3 29.2 37.5Religious - Christian 3 33.3 33.3 33.3

Religious - All 35 34.3 31.4 34.3State - Punitive 14 28.6 57.1 14.3

State - Administrative 11 63.6 18.2 18.2State - Services 6 66.7 0.0 33.3State - Symbols 13 30.8 30.8 38.5

State - All 24 37.5 33.3 29.2Social Spaces 20 25.0 30.0 45.0

Health Facilities 19 26.32 31.58 42.11

Educational Facilities 23 34.8 26.1 39.1

Bottlenecks 31 35.5 35.5 29.0Gathering

Places 28 35.7 32.1 32.1


How about intensity of violence?

Variable Obs

Low-peacef

ul

Medium Intensity

High Intensi

ty

Field 4 75.00 25.00 0.00Market 12 16.67 33.33 50.00Post Office 7 71.43 14.29 14.29


Making sense of the results

In sum, we find:-Two types of victims/different modalities of violence

- Acute and non-acute

-When we look at these two groups differently, we find the absence of non-elected State institutions, in particular the Punitive and Administrative arms of the state to be a significant channel when looking at highly violent neighbourhoods.

Both are evidence that this isn’t ‘mindless criminality’?


Impacts of routine civil violence

Is violence linear?

Is violence linear?

ex-post policing

Violence causes structural change.It can not just be ‘turned off’…

violence

policing

Direct impacts on: health?education?

lifechoices?

not time sensitive;

no long term impacts

violence

???

Impacts of riots?

Collective bravado, individual guilt

We have developed sophisticated models to look at household decision making behaviour, but the most telling are the individual narratives of those who have perpetrated the violence. • Incentives for physically perpetrating violence – ‘merit badge’ to access extralegal authority• Individuals however also bear the burden of guilt

Both these are of profound importance in understanding teenage angst.

Impacts of riots?

Emotive power of riots

The UK Levi’s Jeans

In 2011 an advert was banned for fear of provoking rioting in which country?

What product was the ad for?

Impacts of riots?

Emotive power of riotsImpacts of riots?

Variable

Sites with at least 1 Acute Victim (1)

Sites with at least 1 Non-Acute Victim

(2)Sites without Victims (3)

All Sites

Reach of institutions Know your local police constables or officers 12.70% 9.10% 8.20% 10.10%Trust your local police 62.30% 57.90% 62.70% 60.90%Feel threatened by local police 11.90% 12.20% 14.70% 12.90%Feel safe in own house 99.00% 99.20% 98.70% 99.00%Anyone else besides the police provide security (6) 50.00% 0.00% 0.00% 18.20%Tried to meet the following people MLA 2.90% 4.70% 4.70% 4.00%MP 5.50% 6.20% 6.30% 6.00%Corporator 20.50% 20.50% 20.10% 20.40%Councillor/Sarpanch 1.30% 1.60% 0.60% 1.20%Community leader 3.10% 3.10% 1.90% 2.80%Religious leader 2.90% 2.60% 3.10% 2.80%Caste leader 3.40% 1.80% 2.50% 2.60%Teshildar 5.50% 4.20% 4.10% 4.60%BDO/circle officer 1.80% 1.60% 0.90% 1.50%Collector/ District Magistrate 1.00% 0.80% 0.90% 0.90%Local Police 9.90% 6.80% 9.10% 8.50%Owner of the house 83.60% 78.20% 81.20% 81.00%Average years living here 19 17.3 17.5 17.9Place where previously lived (7) Always lived here 27.50% 26.00% 27.90% 27.10%Elsewhere in the same ward 15.60% 20.50% 19.40% 18.50%Elsewhere in Mumbai 24.90% 24.20% 23.80% 24.30%In Maharashtra 30.60% 25.50% 21.90% 26.30%In another state 1.30% 3.90% 6.90% 3.90%In another country 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%

Variable




All Sites

Organizations Political party 2.30% 1.80% 3.40% 2.50%Trade union 0.00% 0.30% 0.30% 0.20%Student organization 0.50% 0.30% 0.30% 0.40%Farmer organization 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%Cooperative 0.00% 0.30% 0.00% 0.10%Sport/cultural organization 0.80% 0.80% 0.30% 0.60%Gym 2.10% 1.60% 1.60% 1.70%Women’s group 9.40% 3.90% 5.30% 6.20%Local Mohallas committee 0.30% 0.30% 0.00% 0.20%Caste Panchayat / Sabha / Associations 0.50% 0.00% 0.00% 0.20%Religious organizations / sects/ group 1.30% 0.30% 1.60% 1.00%Youth Organization 0.30% 0.30% 0.00% 0.20%Other 0.50% 2.60% 1.60% 1.60%Village redressial Commitee 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%None 84.70% 88.30% 85.90% 86.30% Water availability (5) 24 hours a day of running water 12.70% 9.60% 12.20% 11.50%Water taken from anywhere without payment 6.00% 7.30% 4.70% 6.10%Other sources 81.30% 83.10% 83.10% 82.50% Have an individual meter 86.20% 84.20% 86.20% 85.50%

Variable




All Sites

Reasons to move here (8) Voluntarily Resettled 31.90% 33.30% 27.40% 31.10%Forcible eviction from previous residence 4.30% 4.20% 0.90% 3.30%Marriage 45.50% 40.40% 53.50% 46.00%Job seeking 9.70% 15.10% 9.60% 11.60%Other 8.60% 7.00% 8.70% 8.10%Events occurred in neighborhood in last 12 months (at least 1 time) Rioting 42.10% 17.90% 1.90% 21.80%Stone pelting 34.80% 15.30% 3.10% 18.60%Public fights 35.30% 19.70% 6.90% 21.50%Bottle throwing 14.80% 3.60% 0.90% 6.80%Tire burning 17.40% 5.20% 1.30% 8.40%Damaging of bus or public property 14.30% 2.60% 0.60% 6.20%Agitation related to a bandh 16.10% 6.20% 0.90% 8.20%Violence during curfew 28.60% 10.90% 0.00% 14.00%Police harassment 4.90% 2.90% 0.00% 2.80%

Variable




All Sites

SITE CHARACTERISTICSNumber of Sites 16 16 13 45Number of Households 385 385 319 1089Communal Violence Clusters (District-Level) Low 37.50% 43.80% 23.10% 35.60%Medium 31.30% 31.30% 30.80% 31.10%High 31.30% 25.00% 46.20% 33.30%Communal Violence Incidence Sites 62.50% 75.00% 76.90% 71.10%

HOUSEHOLDS CHARACTERISTICSVictims Categories Acute Victims 8.10% 0.00% 0.00% 2.80%Non-Acute Victims 21.00% 11.70% 0.00% 11.60%Non Victims 70.90% 88.30% 100.00% 85.60%Religion Hindu 61.30% 54.30% 43.90% 53.70%Muslim 31.40% 39.00% 49.20% 39.30%Buddhist 6.20% 5.20% 6.00% 5.80%Other (4) 1.00% 1.60% 0.90% 1.20%Higher Education Level in HH Illiterate 1.00% 1.60% 0.30% 1.00%Literate but no formal education 0.00% 0.00% 0.00% 0.00%School up to/ 4 years 2.10% 1.00% 1.90% 1.70%School 5-9 years 16.90% 22.30% 25.10% 21.20%SSC/HSC 41.80% 40.00% 39.80% 40.60%Some college but not graduate 12.70% 10.60% 11.30% 11.60%Graduate/post graduate-general 16.90% 18.40% 15.40% 17.00%Graduate/post graduate- professional 8.60% 6.00% 6.30% 7.00%Type of House Thatch 2.30% 1.30% 1.60% 1.70%Tin 8.10% 7.30% 4.10% 6.60%Asbestos 7.80% 3.40% 7.20% 6.10%Mixed materials 25.20% 33.00% 31.30% 29.80%Bricks 15.30% 8.80% 10.70% 11.70%Concrete 24.20% 36.90% 33.90% 31.50%In a building 16.40% 8.80% 11.30% 12.20%Wooden 0.80% 0.50% 0.00% 0.50%

Sampling:

- 5-6 start points and varying skip patterns.

- Skip = n/#calls ≈ 4 or 5- Right Hand Thumb Rule- Careful counting- No main roads- Refusal rate maintained

- Total n = 1089- Pre-selected in-

depth interviewing with 50- Direct involvement with

civil violence (perpetrate/victim/witness of rioting, police brutality, stone pelting, arson, etc)


Riots: Understanding mindless criminality and the poverty impacts of violence

Education

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