Richmond Housing Today December 2013

Property of Lacy Williams, Joyner Fine Properties

www.RichmondHousingToday.com

1 1

The Greater Richmond Real Estate Market

Lacy Williams Joyner Fine Properties

December 2013



2 2

Background • This report is designed to provide information on the Richmond VA

housing Market as well as the National Market. • Graphs in this report on the National Market are obtained from

Keeping Current Matters and from the National Association of Realtors (NAR). For additional information on Keeping Current Matters, or to subscribe to this service, please go to www.KeepingCurrentMatters.com. For additional information on the National Association of Realtors, go to www.realtor.org.

• The graphs and analysis of the Richmond area are produced by Lacy Williams of Joyner Fine Properties using the Central Virginia Regional Multiple Listing Service (CVRMLS) data. Data was extracted in December 2013 for most of the graphs. The Greater Richmond area is defined as the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Chesterfield, Hanover, Goochland and Powhatan.

http://www.realtor.org/



3 3

The National Market



4 4

Return on Investment

64.3

-.1

26

42.1

Dow S&P NASDAQ Real Estate

January 2000 – November 2013

MSN Money.com, Case Shiller

In spite of recent downturns, real estate continues to be the best long term investment even with the downturn from 2006 to 2012.

Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/13

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller



5 5 NAR 8/2013

Sales Started Sustained Recovery

September 2011

Prices Started Sustained Recovery

June 2012

Inventory Started Sustained Recovery

January 2013

National Real Estate Recovery


Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.realtor.org



6 6

Post-WWII Rescissions


This graph shows job losses in each recession since World War II. As you can see in red, this recession has been deeper and longer than any other recession. The housing market is largely dependent of employment and the number of jobs.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/11/update-when-will-payroll-employment.html?utm_source=feedburner&utm_medium=email&utm_campaign=Feed%3A+CalculatedRisk+%28Calculated+Risk%29



7 7

Average Annual Appreciation

Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q


Nationwide average annual appreciation has been 5.1% for the past 2 years. Appreciation is expected to return to a normal level of 4.2% for the next few years..

Presenter

Presentation Notes

https://www.pulsenomics.com/Q4_2013_HPE_Survey.php



8 8 S&P Case Shiller 11/2013

Year-over-Year Change in Prices


After sharp price increases in the spring of 2013, prices are returning to a normal escalation level.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.housingviews.com/wp-content/uploads/2013/11/CSHomePrice_Release_Sept-Results.pdf



9 9

Home Price Expectation Survey

Projected Percentage Increase Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q Source: Keeping Current Matters 11/13

The Home Price Expectation Survey is a yearly survey of over 100 leading real estate experts, economists, and financial analysts. This graph is the average of their predictions on price increases for the next 5 years.

Presenter

Presentation Notes




10 10

Home Price Expectation Survey 2013 4Q

Cumulative Appreciation by 2018


The cumulative appreciation for the next 5 years (2014-2018) is expected to be 28%.

Presenter

Presentation Notes




11 11 FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013

Year-over-Year Price Changes by Region


Prices are now rising in all areas of the country.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf



12 12

FHFA 3Q Home Price Index11/2013

Year-over-Year Price Changes by State

Source: Keeping Current Matters 12/13c

Overall prices rose by 4.8% in Virginia. The Richmond area is a little higher with year over year price increases at 6.5%

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.fhfa.gov/webfiles/25844/3Q2013HPIreleasepacket.pdf



13 13

Months Inventory of Homes for Sale

NAR 11/2013

5-6 Months = Normal Market Inventory


Nationwide, inventory levels are at a normal level of 5 months.

Presenter

Presentation Notes




14 14 NAR 10/2013

35%

14%

Percentage of Distressed Property Sales


Nationwide, Distressed properties continue to decline with monthly variations.

Presenter

Presentation Notes




15 15

CoreLogic11/2013

Distressed Properties

Months Supply

Virginia is also doing well in the reduced level of Distressed Properties.


Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.corelogic.com/about-us/researchtrends/the-marketpulse.aspx



16 16

$175K

$215K

By FSBO By AGENT

Nationwide, sales with a Realtor are higher than For Sale by Owner (FSBO). However, studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.

Typical Sold Price: FSBO vs. Agent


Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/01/how-seller-sold-home-1991-2012/



17 17

5

7

9

11

13

15

17

19

1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

The percentage of homes selling as a FSBO has decreased from 19% to 9% in the last 20 years

FSBOs as a Percentage of all Home Sales


Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://economistsoutlook.blogs.realtor.org/2013/11/01/how-seller-sold-home-1991-2012/



18 18

Mortgage Rate Projections

Analyst Projected Rate 3Q 2014

Fannie Mae 5.0% National Assoc of Realtors 5.4% Freddie Mac 5.1% Mortgage Bankers Assoc 5.0%

7/2013


Mortgage rates have gone from approximately 3.5% to 4.5%. Mortgage rates are projected to go higher during the next 12 months as shown in this graph.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/84813_.pdf http://www.freddiemac.com/news/finance/docs/Jun_2013_public_outlook.pdf http://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2013/embargoes/phs-6-27-hgbfjnv/july-2013-outlook-2013-6-27.pdf http://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Housing_Forecast_061313.pdf



19 19 Zillow 8/2013

3.2 million homeowners have been

freed from negative equity in the last twelve months.

million additional are expected to be freed in the next twelve months. 1.9

Negative equity occurs when the homeowner owes more on the house than it is worth. Negative equity has been one factor causing short sales and foreclosures.

Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://zillow.mediaroom.com/index.php?s=159&item=373



20 20

Greater Richmond Housing Market

Note: All Greater Richmond graphs include the city of Richmond and the counties of Henrico, Hanover, Chesterfield, Goochland and Powhatan. All data is taken from the Central Virginia Regional Multiple List Service (CVRMLS)



21 21

Market Indicator #1: The Number of Sales is Up!!!



22 22

Greater Richmond Single Family Closed Sales

1273715262 15533 16450 15074

126449482 9069 8574 9051 10177 10545

05000

100001500020000

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

(Thru

12/9)

Year

No o

f Clo

sed

Sale

s

Number of Single Family House Sales by Year

The number of single sales dropped every year from 2005 to 2010. The number of sales in 2010 was approximately half of the number of sales in 2005. After 5 straight years of declining sales, the number of sales in 2011 was 5.5% higher than 2010 and 2012 sales were 12.5 % higher than 2011 sales. Between 2010 and 2012, sales increased 18.7%. And Sales in 2013 are already higher than in 2012!!

Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13



23 23

Single Family Sales By Year and Quarter

Second quarter sales have risen for the past three years. 2013 second quarter sales were higher than 2010 sales when there was a Federal tax credit and were higher than the past five years. 2013 second quarter sales were 38% higher than in 2009.

Source: CVRMLS Data 10/2/13

The first Quarter of 2013 is 7% higher than 2012 and 26% higher than 2010.

Sales in the first quarter have risen for three straight years and are higher than the past 5 years.

Single Family Sales By Year in First Quarter

31612892

2088

1487 1612 1801 1924 2057

0500

100015002000250030003500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

No o

f Clo

sed

Firs

t Q

uarte

r Sal

es

Greater Richmond Singld Family Sales for Second Quarter

45673919

29102533

3013 26573069 3387

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

No o

f Clo

sed

Sale

s



24 24

Third and Fourth Quarter Sales

Greater Richmond Single Family House Sales in Fourth Quarter by Year

3222

2362

1707

23571847

21232347

0500

100015002000250030003500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year

Num

ber o

f Sal

es

2012 is 11% higher than 2011.


Sales in the third quarter of 2012 were higher than sales for the past 5 years!! 2013 Third quarter sales are 60% higher than 2010 third quarter sales. 2012 fourth quarter sales are 10.6% higher than 2011 fourth quarter sales. Note that 2009 had a tax credit during the fourth quarter.

Greater Richmond Single Family Third Quarter Sales

41113421

2526 26921999

2508 27933180

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Num

ber o

f Clo

sed

Sale

s



25 25

Greater Richmond Single Family Sales by Month and Year

300

500

700

900

1100

1300

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

Month

Num

ber o

f Sal

es 20092010201120122013

Number of Sales By Month

As shown above, the number of sales in October are lower than last year in October. The Real Estate market is affected by government budget crisis, the rising interest rate and other factors. Sales for the year are still significantly higher than last year.

Source: CVRMLS Data



26 26

Pending and Closed Sales By Month

0200400600800

100012001400

Jan-

13

Feb-

13

Mar

-13

Apr

-13

May

-13

Jun-

13

Jul-1

3

Aug

-13

Sep-

13

Oct

-13

Nov

-13

Month

No

of S

ales

PendingClosed

Pending and Closed Sales By Month


This graph shows the number of pending sales by month in blue and the number of closed sales by month in pink for 2013.



27 27

Greater Richmond Condominium/Townhouse Sales

17612035

17571382 1154 1093 1201 1420 1507

0500

1000150020002500

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

(Thru

12/9/

13)

Year

Num

ber o

f Con

dom

iniu

m

Sale

s

Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond

In the condominium/townhouse market, after 4 years of dropping sales, 2011 sales (shown in light green) were 10% higher than 2010 and higher than 2009. And 2012 sales (shown in green) 18% higher than 2011 sales!!! And 2013 sales as of 12/9 are already higher than 2012 sales!!




28 28

Condominium Sales - First and Second Quarter

Greater Richmond First Quarter Condominium Sales by Year

428376

310

190 189242 275 294

0

100

200

300

400

500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

No o

f Firs

t Qua

rter

Sale

s

The second quarter of 2013 had more sales than the previous 5 years including 2010 when there was a federal tax credit. 2013 second quarter sales were 40% higher than 2009 second quarter sales.

Source: CVRMLS data

The first quarter of 2013 had more sales than the first quarter of the previous 4 years. 2013 first quarter sales were 4% higher than 2012 sales and 52% higher than 2008 sales..

2012 sales were 13% higher than 2011 sales.

Greater Richmond Townhouse/Condominium Sales for Second Quarter

601529

420324

431344

402456

0100200300400500600700

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Num

ber o

f Clo

sed

Cond

omin

ium

Sal

es



29 29

Third Quarter Greater Richmond Condminium Sales

578499

355 345219

325393 446

0

200

400

600

800

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013

Year

Num

ber o

f Sal

es


Source: CVRMLS data

Third quarter sales in 2012 were higher than third quarter sales of the previous 4 years!!. Third quarter sales in 2013 were 103% higher than third quarter sales in 2010.

The fourth quarter of 2012 had 18% more sales than the fourth quarter of 2011.

Condominium Sales – Third and Fourth Quarters

Greater Richmond Condominium and Townhouse Sales in Fourth Quarter

424

339

233288

225287

338

0

100

200

300

400

500

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012

Year

Four

th Q

uarte

r Sal

es



30 30

Year Over Year Change in Number of Sales

Number of Single Family House Sales in Greater Richmond

Price Range 12/11-11/12

12/12-11/13 Change

$0-$250,000 6826 7001 2.56%

$250,001-$500,000 2818 3440 22.07%

$500,001-$750,000 457 610 33.48%

$750,001-$1,000,000 110 125 13.64%

$1,000,001+ 50 52 4.00%

In the Condominium market, Year over Year number of sales by price point have increased in all price points with dramatic increases in the higher price points..


In the single family market, Year over Year number of sales by price point have increased in all price points

Number of Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond


12/12-11/13 Change

$0-$250,000 1102 1110 0.73%

$250,001-$500,000 303 435 43.56%

$500,001+ 34 68 100.00%



31 31

Market Indicator #2: Inventory is Down!!!



32 32

Months Market Pricing

1-4 Sellers Appreciation

5-6 Even The Norm

7+ Buyers Depreciation

Months Supply’s Impact on Price


As shown on the graph, the amount of inventory determines if it is a Sellers or a Buyers market. In most areas of Richmond, we are now in a Buyer’s market.



33 33

Inventory of Single Family Houses By Month

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Month

Inve

ntor

y of

Hou

ses

2010

2011

2012

2013

Inventory of Single Family Houses by Month in Greater Richmond

The supply (inventory) of houses is determined by the number of active listings divided by the monthly sales rate for the past year. After 2+ years of inventory between 8 and 10 months, inventory began to drop in the later months of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. Inventory has had a slight rise in the past few months as the market is returning to a normal market of 5-6 months of inventory. Inventory now is less than half of what it was three years ago.

Source: CVRMLS data



34 34

Single Family Inventory by Area


The inventory of single family homes in the city of Richmond, Henrico, and Chesterfield are indicative of a normal market or even a Seller’s market. Areas that are further out (Goochland, Powhatan) have higher inventories and fewer sales and are still Buyer’s markets..

Inventory of Single Family Houses in Greater Richmond (October 2013)

4.7 3.95.4

9.4

4.87.2

4.7

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.0

Richmon

d

Henrico

Hanove

r

Gooch

land

Chester

field

Powhata

n

All Rich

mond

Area

Inve

ntor

y (M

onth

s)



35 35

Inventory of Townhouse/Condominiums by Year and Month in Greater Richmond

0.02.04.06.08.0

10.012.0

Jan

Feb Mar AprMay Ju

n Jul

Aug Sep Oct NovDec

Month

Mon

ths

of In

vent

ory

2010201120122013

Inventory of Condominiums

The inventory of condominiums (determined by the active listing and the sales rate) began dropping in the second half of 2011 and has continued to drop in 2012 and 2013. In April 2011, there were 966 active condominium listings in Greater Richmond and today there are 470. The inventory in August 2013 is more than 7 months less than in December of 2010.

Source: CVRMLS data



36 36

Single Family Inventory by Price Range

Condominium Inventory By Price Range

Price Range Inventory

(Months) $0-$250,000 5.1 $250,001-$500,000 3.7 $500,001+ 6.2


The inventory of houses and condominiums is lowest at the lower price points. There are clearly still challenges for Sellers at the higher price points. Houses in the higher price points must be competitively priced to sell.

Single Family Inventory by Price Range

Price Range Inventory (Months)

$0-$250,000 4.0 $250,001-$500,000 4.0 $500,001-$750,000 5.7 $750,001-$1,000,000 9.8 $1,000,001+ 15.2



37 37

Market Indicator #3: Prices are rising!!!



38 38

Average Sales Price By Month

$150,000$170,000$190,000$210,000$230,000$250,000$270,000$290,000$310,000$330,000

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Month

Ave

rage

Sal

es P

rice

Single Family Average Sales Price By Month

The average sales price fluctuates monthly and has a yearly cycle.




39 39

Average Price Per Square Foot By Month For Closed House Sales in Greater Richmond

$80.00$90.00

$100.00$110.00$120.00$130.00$140.00$150.00

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Month

Pric

e Pe

r Squ

are

Foot

For

C

lose

d Sa

les

Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Month

Price per square foot is a good indication of what is really happening. Note that the trend is definitely upward. There are always seasonal variations with lower prices during the winter months.




40 40

Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot For Closed House Sales By Year

$92.37$99.65

$107.60

$123.38$135.82$139.64

$132.43

$117.82$112.24

$104.98$106.16$113.09

$80$90

$100$110$120$130$140$150

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

(Thru

12/9)

Year

Pric

e Pe

r Squ

are

Foot

Average Price Per Square Foot for Single Family House Sales

Greater Richmond 2013 prices are 6.5% higher than 2012 prices. With a 25% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011, prices are still between 2004 and 2005 levels as indicated in the red line on this graph.




41 41

Single Family Year over Year Price Change

Year over year price change shows that after 4 years of declines, prices started to increase in 2012 and have continued to increase in 2013.. In this graph, the 7.9% increase in 2003 is the increase in prices between 2002 and 2003 etc. In 2013, prices are up 6.5%.


Percent Change in Price Per Square Foot From Previous Year for Closed Sales in Greater Richmond

7.9% 8.0%

14.7%

10.1%

2.8%

-5.2%

-11.0%

-4.7%-6.5%

1.1%

6.5%

-15.0%

-10.0%

-5.0%

0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013(Thru12/9)



42 42

Greater Richmond Single Family Price Per Square Foot by Quarter

$75.00$85.00$95.00

$105.00$115.00$125.00$135.00$145.00

2007

-01

2007

-02

2007

-03

2007

-04

2008

-01

2008

-02

2008

-03

2008

-04

2009

-01

2009

-02

2009

-03

2009

-04

2010

-01

2010

-02

2010

-03

2010

-04

2011

-01

2011

-02

2011

-03

2011

-04

2012

-01

2012

-02

2012

-03

2012

-04

2013

-01

2013

-02

2013

-03

Quarter

Pric

e pe

r Squ

are

Foot

42

Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Quarter

First Quarter Sales

Second Quarter Sales

Fourth Quarter Sales

Third Quarter Sales

Source: CVRMLS data

When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 2013 is higher than the previous two years. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and 2012 is equal to 2011 and 2013 is a huge increase from 2012.. The third quarter is in blue and 2013 third quarter prices are significantly higher than 2012 third quarter prices. The fourth quarter is in green and 2012 fourth quarter prices are significantly higher than 2011 fourth quarter prices.


The turn in the market!!!

Presenter

Presentation Notes

When looking at this graph, look at one color at a time. First look at the first quarter prices in pink: dropping in 2008, 09, 10 and 11. 12 is virtually equal to 11. Likewise, the second quarter sales in yellow dropped from 2007 to 2011 and 2012 is equal to 2011.



43 43

Change in Single Family Price Per Square Foot Between 12/11-11/12 and 12/12-11/13

11.45%

6.10%4.09% 3.75%

6.49% 7.52%

0.00%2.00%4.00%6.00%8.00%

10.00%12.00%14.00%

Richmon

d

Henric

o

Hanov

er

Goochla

nd

Cheste

rfield

Powha

tan

Area

Cha

nge

in P

rice

Per

Squa

re F

oot

2011 vs 2012 Prices By County

Prices have risen year over year in all areas with dramatic rises in the city of Richmond.




44 44

Change in Prices from Same Month in Previous Year

-6.1%

5.5%

-3.3%-3.0%-0.7%-0.3%

2.3%

-0.4%-0.6%

12.3%

5.2%2.8%

12.0%

6.8%6.6%8.6%8.0%

5.6%4.5%

10.7%

7.6%

3.1%0.3%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

Jan

11-J

an 1

2

Mar

11-

Mar

12

May

11-

May

12

Jul 1

1-Ju

l 12

Sep

11-S

ep 1

2

Nov

11-N

ov 1

2

Jan

12-J

an 1

3

Mar

12-

Mar

13

May

12-

May

13

Jul 1

2- J

ul 1

3

Sep

12-S

ep 1

3

Nov

12-N

ov 1

3

Month

Chan

ge in

Pric

es

Monthly Change in Prices


This graph shows the change in price per square foot from one month to the same month a year later. For example on the right of the graph, July of 2013 price per square foot was 7.45% higher than in July of 2012. There are a normal monthly fluctuation but the trend in prices is significantly up.



45 45

Price Per Square Foot For Closed Condominium Sales in Greater Richmond

$100.00$110.00$120.00$130.00$140.00$150.00$160.00$170.00

Jan-

06

Jul-0

6

Jan-

07

Jul-0

7

Jan-

08

Jul-0

8

Jan-

09

Jul-0

9

Jan-

10

Jul-1

0

Jan-

11

Jul-1

1

Jan-

12

Jul-1

2

Jan-

13

Jul-1

3

Month

Pric

e Pe

r Squ

are

Foot

Condominium Price Per Square Foot

Condominiums and townhouse are showing a similar trend as single family homes with prices trending up for the past two years.




46 46

Price Per Square Foot for Condominium Sales By Year

$90.84$100.03

$113.32

$133.49$149.49$154.00$152.70

$135.62$131.55$119.16$121.13

$130.41

$70$80$90

$100$110$120$130$140$150$160

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

(Thru 12

/9/13

)

Year

Pric

e pe

r Squ

are

Foot

Price Per Square Foot for Greater Richmond Condominium Sales By Year

The price per square foot for condominium sales is almost at 2005 levels. But more significantly, prices in 2013 are 7.6% higher than 2012. Prices are expected to continue rising for 2013 and 2014. There was a 23% decrease in prices between 2007 and 2011.




47 47

Greater Richmond Year over Year Price Per Square Foot Change By Price Range

In the single family market, prices have increased in all price points except the highest price points. Remember that the highest inventory is also at the highest price points causing price pressure.. Source: CVRMLS data 12/9/13

In the condominium market, price per square foot is increasing in the lower and middle price points. There is still price pressure at the higher price points.

Single Family Condominium/Townhouse Price per Square Foot Change in Greater

Richmond


12/12-11/13 Change

$0-$250,000 $86.61 $95.01 9.70% $250,001-$500,000 $122.25 $126.68 3.62% $500,001-$750,000 $149.80 $156.69 4.60% $750,001-$1,000,000 $173.01 $181.78 5.07%

$1,000,001+ $228.90 $211.86 -7.44%

Condominium Price per Square Foot Change in Greater Richmond


12/12-11/13 Change

$0-$250,000 $106.51 $111.93 5.09%

$250,001-$500,000 $150.83 $157.39 4.35%

$500,001+ $190.86 $198.85 4.19%



48 48

Richmond Real Estate Areas

The Richmond Association of Realtors (RAR) uses Real estate areas as shown in the graph. The following analysis covers areas 10, 20, 22, 24, 30, 32, 34, 40, 42, 44, 50, 52, 54, 60, 62, 64 and 66 shown on the map.



49 49

Active Listings By Area (As of 12/12/13)

201

41

193 161 146104

223 232 194 192254

149

415503

184

355

138197

0100200300400500600

10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66

Area

Num

ber o

f Act

ive

Sing

le

Fam

ily L

istin

gs

Active Single Family Listings By Area

The number of active listings by area is shown. There are approximately 3560 fewer homes on the market than two years age. Inventory varies by area with area 54 having the highest number of homes for sale and Area 20 having the lowest.




50 50

Average Sales Price By Area For Single Family House Sales (8/1/12-7/31/13)

$238

,962

$446

,825

$316

,699

$410

,489

$148

,485

$149

,614

$326

,549

$286

,313

$143

,564

$113

,311 $2

34,9

76

$63,

172 $1

73,7

91

$216

,550

$201

,375

$250

,186 $3

57,3

95

$268

,781

$246

,454

$0$50,000

$100,000$150,000$200,000$250,000$300,000$350,000$400,000$450,000$500,000

10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66

All

Ric

hmon

d

Area

Ave

rage

Sal

es P

rice

Single Family Average Sales Price By Area

Average sales price varies considerably by area with area 20 having the highest and area 50 having the lowest. The average single family house sale in greater Richmond for the past year is $246,454




51 51

Average Price Per Square Foot For Single Family House Closed Sales By Area (8/1/12-7/31/13)

$117

.19 $1

86.7

1

$130

.47

$130

.96

$84.

04

$95.

10 $124

.82

$116

.44

$82.

88

$69.

21 $112

.07

$45.

85 $87.

08

$97.

10

$102

.43

$105

.11

$116

.51

$115

.27

$107

.99

$0.00

$50.00

$100.00

$150.00

$200.00

10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66Al

l Ric

hmon

d

Area

Pric

e Pe

r Squ

are

Foot

Single Family Price Per Square Foot By Area

Price per square foot also varies by Area with Area 20 (West end of the city) having the highest price per square foot. The average across greater Richmond is $105.85.




52 52

Supply of Houses by Area in Months

3.9

1.32.0

8.3

4.53.1 3.0

5.05.7 5.9

4.9

7.8

5.0 4.7 4.13.3 3.1

6.8

4.1

0.0

2.04.0

6.08.0

10.0

10 20 22 24 30 32 34 36 40 42 44 50 52 54 60 62 64 66

All R

ichm

ond

Area

Inventory of Single Family Houses

As shown above, the supply of houses varies greatly in Greater Richmond. Generally, the areas that are further out have the largest supply of houses while those that are closer in have lower inventories of houses. Goochland (Area 24) and Powhatan (Area 66) have the higher supplies of houses at 9.8 and 7.2 months. Area 50 had a lot of foreclosures and it has a higher inventory at 7.1 months. The average inventory in Greater Richmond is 4.1 months which is better than an normal market.


Red Line represents a normal market.



53 53

Summary



54 54

Existing Home Sales 14,767 US Homes Sell Every Day

and 10,631 Buyers Receive a Mortgage Every Day

NAR 12/2011

In spite of the recent downturn, home ownership continues to be the best long-term investment in the US!!!

Source: Keeping Current Matters



55 55

Price Money Down Mortgage Interest

Rate Payment

(P&I)

Last Year* $187,800 $37,560 $150,240 3.5% $674.64

This Year* $213,500 $42,700 $170,800 4.5% $865.42

Next Year** $224,175 $44,835 $179,340 5% $962.74

*For the first two examples, we used the NAR’s Existing Home Sales Report to establish median price and Freddie Mac’s Primary Mortgage Market Survey to establish mortgage rate. We also assumed a 20% down payment in all examples.

**To establish next year’s pricing, we depended on the over 100 housing experts surveyed for the Home Price Expectation Survey who called for an approximate appreciation rate of 5% over the next twelve months. For the interest rate, we took the average of the projections from the Mortgage Bankers’ Association, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae.

The Cost of Waiting




56 56

Reasons to Hire a Real Estate Professional 5

They help with all disclosures and paperwork necessary in today’s heavily regulated environment.

They are well educated in and experienced with the entire sales process.

They act as a ‘buffer’ in negotiations with all parties throughout the entire transaction.

They help understand today’s real estate values when setting the price on a listing or on an offer to purchase.

They simply and effectively explain today’s real estate headlines and decipher what they mean to you.



57 57

“The housing market has bottomed. It's not

too late to get involved. I still think

buying a home is the best investment any individual can make. Affordability is still at

an all-time high. Buy a home and, if you can, buy a second home.”

John Paulson


Presenter

Presentation Notes

http://www.cnbc.com/id/100893817

http://www.google.com/url?sa=i&rct=j&q=John+Paulson&source=images&cd=&cad=rja&docid=ONUgXflSvhFeyM&tbnid=MXDqb8ITzVnVVM:&ved=0CAUQjRw&url=http%3A%2F%2Fonline.wsj.com%2Farticle%2FSB10001424052748704483004575524312198244500.html&ei=_D_oUaGqK8fj4AO-8oCICQ&bvm=bv.49478099,d.dmg&psig=AFQjCNF8P30SexBqIhuw3QuiveWkaxdejQ&ust=1374261619165661





58 58

Summary

• Sales are up • Inventory is down • Prices are rising. • The interest rate is rising • DO NOT WAIT TO BUY A

HOUSE!!! IT WILL COST YOU A LOT MORE NEXT YEAR!!

Richmond Housing Today December 2013

Business

Transcript of Richmond Housing Today December 2013