Richard Whitman, Director Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development October 8, 2010
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Transcript of Richard Whitman, Director Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development October 8, 2010
Richard Whitman, Director
Oregon Department of Land Conservation and Development
October 8, 2010
Oregon’s Efforts to Reduce GHG Oregon’s Efforts to Reduce GHG Emissions and Adapt to Climate Emissions and Adapt to Climate Change: A Brief Status ReportChange: A Brief Status Report
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Fall Canceled Fall Canceled After 3 Billion SeasonsAfter 3 Billion Seasons
WASHINGTON, DC—Fall, the long- running series of shorter WASHINGTON, DC—Fall, the long- running series of shorter days and cooler nights, was canceled earlier this week days and cooler nights, was canceled earlier this week after nearly 3 billion seasons on Earth, sources reported after nearly 3 billion seasons on Earth, sources reported Tuesday Tuesday
““As much as we'd like to see it stay, fall will not be returning As much as we'd like to see it stay, fall will not be returning for another season," National Weather Service president for another season," National Weather Service president John Hayes announced during a muggy press conference John Hayes announced during a muggy press conference Nov. 6. "Fall had a great run, but sadly, times have Nov. 6. "Fall had a great run, but sadly, times have changed." changed."
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
OverviewOverview
MitigationMitigation – Focus on – Focus on Transportation and Land UseTransportation and Land Use
AdaptationAdaptation – Focus on Hazards – Focus on Hazards PlanningPlanning
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Existing State Legislative Existing State Legislative Goals for GHG ReductionGoals for GHG Reduction
By 2010 stop growthBy 2010 stop growth By 2020 – 10% below 1990By 2020 – 10% below 1990 By 2050 – 75% below 1990By 2050 – 75% below 1990
HB 3543 (2007)HB 3543 (2007)
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Oregon GHG Goals vs. ForecastOregon GHG Goals vs. Forecast
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Key Recent Oregon LegislationKey Recent Oregon Legislation
MitigationMitigation HB 3543 (2007) (GHG reduction goals, HB 3543 (2007) (GHG reduction goals,
Global Warming Commission, Oregon Global Warming Commission, Oregon Climate Change Research Institute)Climate Change Research Institute)
SB 838 (2007) (renewable portfolio SB 838 (2007) (renewable portfolio standard)standard)
HB 2186 (2009) (low carbon fuel standard HB 2186 (2009) (low carbon fuel standard 10% reduction per unit fuel over 10 years)10% reduction per unit fuel over 10 years)
HB 2001 (2009) (Transportation GHG HB 2001 (2009) (Transportation GHG target for Portland Metro, transportation target for Portland Metro, transportation and land use planning to meet target)and land use planning to meet target)
SB 1059 (2010) (Transportation GHG target SB 1059 (2010) (Transportation GHG target for other MPO areas)for other MPO areas)
Adaptation?Adaptation?
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
HB 2001 and SB 1059HB 2001 and SB 1059 Portland Metro (HB 2001)Portland Metro (HB 2001)
Technical Inputs by DEQ, ODOE, ODOTTechnical Inputs by DEQ, ODOE, ODOT Target for 2035 set by LCDC in June 2011Target for 2035 set by LCDC in June 2011 Metro develops 2+ scenarios by 2012Metro develops 2+ scenarios by 2012 LCDC adopts rules for selection of preferred LCDC adopts rules for selection of preferred
scenario by 2013scenario by 2013 Preferred Plan adopted and implemented Preferred Plan adopted and implemented
beginning in 2013beginning in 2013
Other MPO Areas (Salem, Corvallis, Eugene-Other MPO Areas (Salem, Corvallis, Eugene-Springfield, Medford and Bend) (SB 1059)Springfield, Medford and Bend) (SB 1059) Statewide Strategy (OTC)Statewide Strategy (OTC) Targets for other areas set by LCDC in June 2011Targets for other areas set by LCDC in June 2011 Toolkit, Planning GuidelinesToolkit, Planning Guidelines
Oregon Transportation Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction PlanningGHG Emission Reduction Planning
Technical Info for LCDC Rulemaking
ODOT, DEQ, and ODOE provide estimates of 1990 light vehicle GHG emissions and forecasts of future vehicle fleet and fuel characteristics.
Scenario Planning Guidelines
Guidelines and process for metropolitan areas to develop land use and transportation scenarios to meet GHG reduction targets.
•Technical Advisory Committee
Toolkit
Information on actions and programs local governments may undertake to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles.
Public Education
Statewide public outreach and education about the need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicles and about the costs and benefits of reducing GHG emissions.
Statewide Transportation Strategy
Statewide strategy for reducing GHG emissions from the transportation sector to aid in achieving legislated GHG reduction targets.
To be adopted by the Oregon Transportation Commission.
• Policy Committee• Technical Advisory Committee
LCDC Rulemaking to SetMetropolitan Area Light Vehicle GHG Emissions Targets
•Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC)
Progress and Recommendations ReportJoint ODOT & DLCD report to 77th Legislative Assembly regarding SB 1059 progress.
Scenario Planning Financial ReportJoint ODOT, DLCD, local governments report to 76th Legislative Assembly on financing scenario planning
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Technical Estimates of Vehicles, Technical Estimates of Vehicles, Fuels, VMTFuels, VMT By ODOT, DEQ, ODOEBy ODOT, DEQ, ODOE 1990 and 2035 baseline estimates of:1990 and 2035 baseline estimates of:
Vehicle fleet Vehicle fleet FuelsFuels VMTVMT
Informs state strategy and target settingInforms state strategy and target setting Advisory CommitteesAdvisory Committees
All advisory committees will review All advisory committees will review ScheduleSchedule
Final due by March 1, 2011Final due by March 1, 2011 Draft expected sooner Draft expected sooner
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Statewide Transportation StrategyStatewide Transportation Strategy
By ODOT/OTCBy ODOT/OTC Covers transportation sector; statewideCovers transportation sector; statewide State programs and policies to reduce GHGState programs and policies to reduce GHG Includes assumptions about federal policies Includes assumptions about federal policies
Advisory CommitteesAdvisory Committees Policy CommitteePolicy Committee Technical Advisory CommitteeTechnical Advisory Committee
ScheduleSchedule Phase 1 – Early 2011 - Light vehicles Phase 1 – Early 2011 - Light vehicles Phase 2 – Late 2011 – Remainder of Phase 2 – Late 2011 – Remainder of
transportation sector (heavy vehicles, air, transportation sector (heavy vehicles, air, marine, rail etc.) marine, rail etc.)
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Target RulemakingTarget Rulemaking By LCDCBy LCDC For each metropolitan areaFor each metropolitan area Informed by agency estimates and Informed by agency estimates and
statewide strategystatewide strategyAdvisory CommitteeAdvisory Committee
Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee Target Rulemaking Advisory Committee (TRAC) (TRAC)
ScheduleSchedule Due by June 1, 2011Due by June 1, 2011
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Scenario Planning GuidelinesScenario Planning Guidelines By ODOT and DLCD Advisory Process for scenario planning
Steps/ who does it Assumptions Evaluation methods
Allow for a range of actions for reducing GHG Integrate with existing planning processes Advisory CommitteeAdvisory Committee
Scenario Planning Technical Advisory Scenario Planning Technical Advisory CommitteeCommittee
ScheduleSchedule Draft by April 2011Draft by April 2011 Final Fall 2011Final Fall 2011
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
ToolkitToolkit By ODOT and DLCDBy ODOT and DLCD Best Practices for GHG reductionBest Practices for GHG reduction Local & regional programs and actionsLocal & regional programs and actions
Provide examplesProvide examples Document GHG reduction effects Document GHG reduction effects Identify benefits/ co-benefitsIdentify benefits/ co-benefits
Recommend Analysis and Modeling ToolsRecommend Analysis and Modeling Tools ScheduleSchedule
Draft by April 2011Draft by April 2011 Final Fall 2011Final Fall 2011
Cool Planning: Version 1.0Cool Planning: Version 1.0
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Cool PlanningCool Planning(www.oregon.gov/LCD/TGM/index(www.oregon.gov/LCD/TGM/index))
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Scenario Planning Funding Scenario Planning Funding ReportReport By ODOT/DLCD in consultation with By ODOT/DLCD in consultation with
metropolitan local governments metropolitan local governments Estimate funding local governments need Estimate funding local governments need
to conduct scenario planningto conduct scenario planning Schedule Schedule
Report to Legislature due January 2011Report to Legislature due January 2011 Consultation starts later this monthConsultation starts later this month
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Education & OutreachEducation & Outreach
Strategy to be developedStrategy to be developed Outreach to public aboutOutreach to public about
Need to reduce GHG emissions from Need to reduce GHG emissions from light vehicle travellight vehicle travel
Costs and benefits of GHG emission Costs and benefits of GHG emission reductionreduction
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Part 2:Part 2:Climate Change AdaptationClimate Change Adaptation
in Oregonin Oregon
Climate Change Integration Climate Change Integration Group (CCIG) Report (Jan. Group (CCIG) Report (Jan. 2008) (initial recommendations 2008) (initial recommendations for adaptationfor adaptation
OCCRI – State of the Climate OCCRI – State of the Climate Science in Oregon (Dec. 2010)Science in Oregon (Dec. 2010)
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Likely changes in future Likely changes in future climate conditions in Oregonclimate conditions in Oregon1.1. Increase in average annual air temperaturesIncrease in average annual air temperatures
2.2. Changes in hydrology, water supply, and water quality; Changes in hydrology, water supply, and water quality; reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins, reduced snowpack and water availability in some basins, changes in timing of water availabilitychanges in timing of water availability
3.3. Increased incidence of droughtIncreased incidence of drought
4.4. Increased coastal erosion from increasing sea levels and Increased coastal erosion from increasing sea levels and increasing wave heights and storm surges related to increasing wave heights and storm surges related to intensification of North Pacific winter stormsintensification of North Pacific winter storms
5.5. Shift in distribution of habitats and species, with a likely Shift in distribution of habitats and species, with a likely increase in invasive species and reduced ability of increase in invasive species and reduced ability of terrestrial and aquatic habitats to support wildlife species terrestrial and aquatic habitats to support wildlife species and populationsand populations
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Likely changes in future Likely changes in future climate conditions in Oregonclimate conditions in Oregon6.6. Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes Increase in ocean temperatures, with potential for changes
in ocean chemistry (nutrients and dissolved oxygen) and in ocean chemistry (nutrients and dissolved oxygen) and increased ocean acidificationincreased ocean acidification
7.7. Increased frequency of extreme daily precipitation eventsIncreased frequency of extreme daily precipitation events
8.8. Increase in wildfire frequency and intensityIncrease in wildfire frequency and intensity
9.9. Increase in incidence and magnitude of damaging floodsIncrease in incidence and magnitude of damaging floods
10. Increase in incidence of landslides10. Increase in incidence of landslides
11. Increase in diseases, insect pests, and plant pests11. Increase in diseases, insect pests, and plant pests
12. Loss of wetland ecosystem services12. Loss of wetland ecosystem services
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Outline of Adaptation FrameworkOutline of Adaptation Framework1.1. Risk assessmentRisk assessment2.2. Likelihood of the riskLikelihood of the risk3.3. Timing and geography of the risk Timing and geography of the risk 4.4. Related risksRelated risks5.5. Summary of consequences of the risk Summary of consequences of the risk
Ecosystems Ecosystems Built and developed systems Built and developed systems Economic systemsEconomic systemsPublic health and safety Public health and safety
6. Gaps in state capacity to address the risk: 6. Gaps in state capacity to address the risk: 7.7. Needed actionsNeeded actions
a. Priority Actions a. Priority Actions b. Actions that apply to several risksb. Actions that apply to several risksc. Additional actionsc. Additional actions
8.8. Implementing the framework Implementing the framework a. Information base for decisionsa. Information base for decisionsb. Monitoring b. Monitoring c. Coordination with local governments, federal c. Coordination with local governments, federal agencies, & other partnersagencies, & other partners
9.9. ReferencesReferences
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Adaptation Framework: Adaptation Framework: Short-Term Priority ActionsShort-Term Priority Actions
For each major risk – short term For each major risk – short term priority actions that the state priority actions that the state should consider (low hanging fruit)should consider (low hanging fruit)
Initial cost-benefit analysisInitial cost-benefit analysis
Delivered to the new Governor Delivered to the new Governor and legislature in December 2010and legislature in December 2010
October 2010Oregon Transportation GHG Emission Reduction Planning
Questions?Questions?
More Information:More Information:
GHG Mitigation in Transportation: GHG Mitigation in Transportation: Bob Cortright Bob Cortright
[[email protected]] [[email protected]]
Climate Adaptation Framework: Climate Adaptation Framework: Jeff WeberJeff Weber [[email protected]] [[email protected]]