Richard Muller XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009 Physics for Presidents and other World...

Richard Muller www.muller.LBL.gov XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009

Physics forPhysics forPresidentsPresidentsand otherand other

World LeadersWorld Leaders

Physics forPhysics forPresidentsPresidentsand otherand other

World LeadersWorld Leaders

photo by Victor Juhasz


Today:Today:

terrorismterrorism nuclear weaponsnuclear weapons energyenergy climate changeclimate change


TerroristTerroristnukenuke



Uranium Bomb U-235Purification HARDGun design EASYNever needed testDestroyed HiroshimaSaddam’s bomb

Plutonium Bomb Pu-239Purification EASYImplosion design HARDAlamogordo testDestroyed NagasakiNorth Korean Choice


Saddam’s CalutronsSaddam’s CalutronsSaddam’s CalutronsSaddam’s Calutrons


North Korean North Korean Nuke hits Nuke hits

Central ParkCentral Park


1 Megaton 1 Megaton Nuke hits Nuke hits Central Central

ManhattanManhattan


9/119/119/119/11


Energy per gram Energy per gram


US Cost of energyUS Cost of energy(($ = US dollars; ¢ = 0.01 US dollar)$ = US dollars; ¢ = 0.01 US dollar)

fuel cost per kWh (1000 Cal)

cost converted to electricity

coal $60/ton 0.6¢ 2¢

natural gas $5/MM-cu-ft 1.5¢ 5¢

gasoline $2/gal 6¢ 24¢

electricity 10¢/kWh 10¢ 10¢

computer battery(laptop, Tesla)

$120/lb for 60 Wh1000 charges

$2 $2.00

advanced Li-Ion(A123?)

$60/lb? 60Wh?3000 charges?

$0.33? 33¢ ?

AAA battery $1.50/battery $1000 $1000

Plug-in Hybrid: more expensive than $15/gallon gasoline!

(but less carbon dioxide)


Greenhouse GasesGreenhouse Gases


Are the fears all based on Are the fears all based on complicated computer calculations? complicated computer calculations?

1979MacDonal

d

1979MacDonal

d 2007IPCC2007IPCC

1958Revell

e

1958Revell

e

1896Arhennius

1896Arhennius


Greenhouse effectGreenhouse effect(car in the parking lot effect)(car in the parking lot effect)


This is global This is global warming:warming:


Warming lastWarming last

158 years158 years

+ arctic sea ice & sea level+ arctic sea ice & sea level


In last 100 yrs, sea level rose 8 inches


arctic icearctic ice


Antarctica losing ice Antarctica losing ice massmass

Antarctic Ice Sheet Losing Mass, According to CU-Boulder Study March 2, 2006 University of Colorado at Boulder researchers have used data from a pair of NASA satellites orbiting Earth in tandem to determine that the Antarctic ice sheet, which harbors 90 percent of Earth's ice, has lost significant mass in recent years.

The team used measurements taken with the Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment, or GRACE, to conclude the Antarctic ice sheet is losing up to 36 cubic miles of ice, or 152 cubic kilometers, annually. By comparison, the city of Los Angeles uses about 1 cubic mile of fresh water annually. "This is the first study to indicate the total mass balance of the Antarctic ice sheet is in significant decline," said Isabella Velicogna of CU-Boulder's Cooperative Institute for Research in Environmental Sciences, chief author of the new study that appears in the March 2 online issue of Science Express.

The study was co-authored by CU-Boulder physics Professor John Wahr of CIRES, a joint campus institute of CU-Boulder and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration. The estimated ice mass in Antarctica is equivalent to 0.4 millimeters of global sea rise annually, with a margin of error of 0.2 millimeters, according to the study. There are about 25 millimeters in an inch.

The most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change assessment, completed in 2001, predicted the Antarctic ice sheet would gain mass in the 21st century due to increased precipitation in a warming climate. But the new study signals a reduction in the continent's total ice mass, with the bulk of loss occurring in the West Antarctic ice sheet, said Velicogna.

Researchers used GRACE data to calculate the total ice mass in Antarctica between April 2002 and August 2005 for the study, said Velicogna, who also is affiliated with the Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena.

SciencExpress 2 March 2006 p 1 / 10.1126/science.1123785


swim suitsswim suitsGlobal WarmingGlobal WarmingGlobal WarmingGlobal Warming


Landsea hurricanesLandsea hurricanes


Hurricanes that hit the USHurricanes that hit the US

definitely NOT increasing!


tornadoestornadoes


WildfiresWildfires(in US)(in US)


Alaska isAlaska isMelting?Melting?

Temperature in Fairbanks

North Pacific



158 years158 years





158 years158 years

+ arctic sea ice & sea level+ arctic sea ice & sea level


Recent non WarmingRecent non Warming


How rapidly are we How rapidly are we running out of fossil running out of fossil

fuels?fuels?


billion barrel of oil billion barrel of oil equivalentequivalent


Carbon DioxideCarbon Dioxide


Energy and WealthEnergy and Wealth


Pollution per GDPPollution per GDPPollution per GDPPollution per GDP

US

China

India


World Carbon World Carbon DioxideDioxide

Projections Projections

Natural Gas

Coal

Oil


China’s COChina’s CO22

Forecasting the Path of China’s CO2 Emissions Using Province Level Information by Maximilian Au hammer & Richard T. Carson (2009)ff


Energy per GDPEnergy per GDPEnergy per GDPEnergy per GDP

source: L. Shipper & S. Meyers


McKinsey AnalysisMcKinsey AnalysisMcKinsey AnalysisMcKinsey Analysis



158 years158 years

Richard A MullerUC Berkeley

cloudsclouds

Cloud cover:the big unknown

2% change in cloud cover

would overwhelm human CO2


What do we What do we do?do?

Comfortable Conservation

Clean Coal

Chinese Carbon Credits

Nukes, Solar, Wind

C 7 NSW

compact fluorescents in Notre Dame de Paris


Wind turbinesWind turbines


Solar CellsSolar Cells


Nuclear WasteNuclear Waste


Truly Clean Coal?

Sequestration of the carbon dioxide (CSS)

Cost: 4¢ per kWh

We can’t just suck it out of the air.


Efficient and Clean Coal: Efficient and Clean Coal: IGCCIGCC (Integrated Gas Combined (Integrated Gas Combined

Cycle)Cycle)


What can we do?What can we do?

plot from EPRI


Future Energy TechFuture Energy TechIGCC (clean coal)IGCC (clean coal)

LiIonLiIon

Thin film solar: CdTe, Thin film solar: CdTe, CIGS, a-SiCIGS, a-Si

Ga multijunction solarGa multijunction solar

Pebble Bed NukesPebble Bed Nukes

Waste StorageWaste Storage

Coal bed gasificationCoal bed gasification

non-corn biofuelsnon-corn biofuels

CTL (Coal-To-Liquid; CTL (Coal-To-Liquid; Fisher-Tropsch)Fisher-Tropsch)

Coal-bed methaneCoal-bed methane

Enhanced Oil RecoveryEnhanced Oil Recovery

Solar concentratorSolar concentrator

Indium shortagesIndium shortages

DC power transmissionDC power transmission

InvertersInverters

coal bed gasificationcoal bed gasification

OMITTED (on purpose): plug-in hybrids, hydrogen economy, fuel cells, fusion, breeder reactors


Global warming will come from the developing Global warming will come from the developing world. Unfortunately.world. Unfortunately.

Not good enough to set an example Not good enough to set an example ……

if developing countries can’t afford to follow if developing countries can’t afford to follow that example.that example.

Must stop Must stop Green Bickering Green Bickering and and

Cleaner than Thou PontificatingCleaner than Thou Pontificating

We need it allWe need it all: conservation, solar, wind, clean : conservation, solar, wind, clean coal, nukes, coal to liquid …coal, nukes, coal to liquid …


www.Muller.LBL.Govwww.Muller.LBL.Gov


Al Gore – An Inconvenient Truth: “Tony Blair's scientific advisor has said that because of what is happening in Greenland right now, the maps of the World will have to be redrawn.” -- but not, of course, for a few hundred years.

“If Greenland melted or broke up and slipped into the sea -- or if half of Greenland and half of Antarctica melted or broke up and slipped into the sea, sea levels worldwide would increase by between 18 and 20 feet.”

Calculations by the Hadley Centerfor Climate Change, Met Office UK

In last 100 yrs, sea level rose 8 inches

Greenland melting?Greenland melting?


Tons COTons CO22 per $1000 per $1000Tons COTons CO22 per $1000 per $1000

US



158 years158 years


““The observed The observed widespread warming of widespread warming of the atmosphere and the atmosphere and ocean, together with ice ocean, together with ice mass loss, support the mass loss, support the conclusion that it is conclusion that it is extremely unlikely that extremely unlikely that global global climate change of climate change of the past the past fifty years fifty years can can be explained without be explained without external forcing, and external forcing, and very very likely [90%] likely [90%] that it that it isis not not due to known natural due to known natural causes alone.”causes alone.”

THIS is the consensus:

IPCC 2007



158 years158 years


Hurricane damageHurricane damage


WWW.Muller.LBL.GoWWW.Muller.LBL.Govv


The bottom lines:The bottom lines:

We need the full spectrum:We need the full spectrum:

solarsolar natural gasnatural gas

windwind

clean coalclean coal


Everyone needs to know this stuff.Everyone needs to know this stuff.

Physics is nonpartisan Physics is nonpartisan and non-denominational.and non-denominational.

Should not need to be Should not need to be taught with spin.taught with spin.

Monthly Fireside Chats?Monthly Fireside Chats?A A real real President’s Science President’s Science

Advisory Committee?Advisory Committee?


1 Megaton 1 Megaton Nuke hits Nuke hits Central Central

ManhattanManhattan


Mann Global Mann Global Warming Hockey Warming Hockey

StickStick


Prudhoe Bay Prudhoe Bay TemperaturesTemperatures


IPCC model resultsIPCC model results


The public needs to know this The public needs to know this stuff.stuff.


The public needs to know this The public needs to know this stuff.stuff.

Physics is nonpartisan and non-Physics is nonpartisan and non-denominational.denominational.


The public needs to know this stuff.The public needs to know this stuff.

Physics is nonpartisan and non-Physics is nonpartisan and non-denominational.denominational.

Physics does not need to be taught Physics does not need to be taught with spin.with spin.


Al Gore: Al Gore: the evidence that humans are the evidence that humans are responsible for all of the damaging responsible for all of the damaging global warming of the past 120 years global warming of the past 120 years is clear and incontrovertible.is clear and incontrovertible.

IPCC: IPCC: it is very likely (90% chance) it is very likely (90% chance) that humans caused some of the 1that humans caused some of the 1oo F F warming of the past 50 years.warming of the past 50 years.


Acidify theAcidify theOceans?Oceans?

The direct effects of COThe direct effects of CO2 2 on ocean acidityon ocean acidity


IPCC model resultsIPCC model results


cloud cloud numbersnumbers

HighHigh

thinthinHighHigh

thickthickmiddlemiddle

thinthinmiddlemiddle

thickthickall lowall low

cloudscloudsTotalTotal

global global fraction fraction (%)(%)

+10.+10.11

+8.6+8.6 +10.7+10.7 +7.3+7.3 +26.6+26.6 +63+63

ForcingForcing

Albedo Albedo (W/m(W/m22))

-4.1-4.1 --15.615.6 -3.7-3.7 -9.9-9.9 -20.2-20.2 -53.5-53.5

OutgoinOutgoing IR g IR (W/m(W/m22))

+6.5+6.5 +8.6+8.6 +4.8+4.8 +2.4+2.4 +3.5+3.5 +25.8+25.8

Net Net forcing forcing (W/m(W/m22))

2.42.4 -7.0-7.0 +1.1+1.1 -7.5-7.5 -16.7-16.7 -27.7-27.7

Role of clouds

compare insolation variations = 18 W/m2 rms


Nuclear WasteNuclear Waste


New Solar CellsNew Solar Cells

from HS Ullal and B von Roedern, 2007


Koonin plotKoonin plot


CO2 lags CO2 lags climateclimate

N. Caillon et al., Science vol 299, 1728, 14 March 2003

Temperature change precedes CO2 change by 800 ± 200 yrs


Thermohaline Thermohaline Circulation Turn off?Circulation Turn off?

Atlantic ocean circulation predicted Atlantic ocean circulation predicted to decline but not switch offto decline but not switch off


NOAA NOAA Annual Annual

PublicatioPublicationn

The The Climate Climate of 2006of 2006


wildfires - wildfires - both both plotsplots


65 Myr climate 65 Myr climate RohdeRohde

plot by Robert Rohde, Wikipedia


sunspotssunspots


Asian Asian SootSoot


Alaska isAlaska isMeltingMelting

Temperature in Fairbanks

North Pacific


rainfallrainfall


Fossil Fuel Fossil Fuel ReservesReserves

(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)

data:: US Energy Information Agency


Turn Coal into OilTurn Coal into Oil(CTL – coal to liquid) at about (CTL – coal to liquid) at about

$50/bbl$50/bbl

Fischer-Tropsch


Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)


Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves



Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves(billion barrels of oil equiv) (billion barrels of oil equiv)


Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves



Fossil Fuel Fossil Fuel ReservesReserves



A Global Warming A Global Warming SkepticSkeptic

Disputes the IPCC on both the evidence and on the expected consequences




coal $80/ton 0.8¢ 2.4¢

natural gas $10/MM-cu-ft 3¢ 9¢





$2 $2.00



$0.33? 33¢ ?








coal $60/ton 0.6¢ 2¢

natural gas $5/MM-cu-ft 1.5¢ 5¢





$2 $2.00



$0.33? 33¢ ?






Fossil Fuel ReservesFossil Fuel Reserves(billion barrels of oil equivalent)(billion barrels of oil equivalent)


Terrorist Nuke Attack on San FranciscoTerrorist Nuke Attack on San FranciscoTerrorist Nuke Attack on San FranciscoTerrorist Nuke Attack on San Francisco

this 1 kton explosion is greater than the N. Korea test



158 years158 years

Richard Muller XX Annual Strategy Conference 16 April 2009 Physics for Presidents and other World...

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