Richard Kozul-Wright
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Transcript of Richard Kozul-Wright
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Richard Kozul-Wright
Manufacturing Success: Structural transformation, industrial policy
and the rise of the SouthGeneva, 15 April 2011
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Structural transformation
• Economic development requires structural transformation – new activities + shifting resources:– Source of productivity growth (Lewis)– Virtuous supply and demand side linkages
(Kaldor)– Learning economies (Schumpeter)
• Is industry special? Yes and no• Structural transformation more important to
developing than developed countries – large productivity gaps between different parts of their economy
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Economic growth and structural change, 1970-2003
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Globalisation and structural change: Winners and losers, 1990-2005
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What you (produce and) export matters
Why countries trade:Comparative advantage (static)Technology/learning (dynamic)Vent for surplusBalance of payments
Sophistication (diversification) some traded goods are associated with higher productivity levels than others and countries that latch on to higher productivity goods perform better.
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What you trade has an impact on growth
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Export diversification and growth
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Export sophistication and growth I
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Export sophistication and growth II
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Technological intensity and growth
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Export sophistication levelselected countries
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Missing links
• Export-led growth vs import substitution
• Misreading the East Asian Miracle investment-export nexus
• Big firms export and invest
• Public investment matters
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Why investment rates differ?
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Investment is a catalyst for structural change
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Infrastructure investment
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The role of production networksFDIFlying geese paradigmRegional arrangements
A new industrial policy?
Concerns:Trading more earning lessFootloseRace to the bottom
New patterns of trade and investment
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The Rise of the South
The emergence of southern growth poles
Catching up, convergence and decoupling
The crisis has accelerated the shift
Can the South go it alone? Markets, machines and money
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Contribution to world GDP/PPP growth 1990-2015Annual global GDP-PPP growth rate (based on 3-yr moving average)
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
2013
2014
2015
Contribution of advanced economiesContribution of emerging and developing economies
Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth based on IMF World Economic Outlook, 2010, April
Notes: Data for 2010-2015 based on IMF projections
(back)
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Catching Up?
Long run GDP trend
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Year
% o
f glo
bal G
DP
High Income Low and middle Income
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Weathering the crisis (growth rate of GDP, % change from a year earlier)
(back)
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Developing Economies no Longer Perceived as High risk/Low return
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%19
9019
9119
9219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
0420
0520
0620
0720
0820
0920
1020
1120
1220
1320
1420
15
Advanced economies Emerging and developing economies
Source: OECD Development Centre, Perspectives on Global Development 2010 Shifting Wealth based on IMF World Economic Outlook, 2010, April
Public Debt as % of GDP
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Evolution of south south trade
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
South-South trade as % of south total South-South trade as % of world total
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Composition of south south trade
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South-South trade by regionin 2009
Source: ECIDC,UNCTAD based on UNCTADstat.
AfricaLAC
Asia
0200000000400000000600000000800000000
100000000012000000001400000000160000000018000000002000000000
Africa
LAC
Asia
Oceania
Exporter
Recip
ient
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Policy challenges
• Avoid North South asymmetriesTerms of tradeBalance of paymentsEnclaves
• Exploit diversification opportunities
• Financing adjustment and upgrading
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Why Industrial policies matter even more?
Risks in South-South for least developed (polarization and commodity trap)
The middle-income trap
The limits of export led-growth
Employment creation (inclusive growth)
Financialization: a persistent threat to productive investment
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Learning from success: Development states vs good governance
• Domestic resource mobilisationmanaging rents
• Integrating macro, trade and industrial policiesExchange rates
• Disciplining capital (particularly finance)• Capabilities• Social policy
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Thank you!