Richard Black's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting
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Transcript of Richard Black's presentation - OECD - PGD Expert Meeting
“The temperature increases, the temperature changes of this kind, transform where people can be. In the upwards direction, you’re going to get some areas that become deserts, probably most of southern Europe. Others that are inundated: Florida, Bangladesh, and so on.
The point is that climate change will change the lives and livelihoods and where you can live all across the globe.... With the pollution we have already generated, the world now has 25 to 50 million climate refugees.”- Lord Stern (LSE, 2011)
“Pressure to migrate
will intensify”
“1bn likely to be
displaced by 2050”
“150-200 million
environmental
refugees by the
middle of the
century”
Future floods of refugees?
Estimates of
numbers are ‘at
best, guesswork’
(IPCC, 2007)
Expanding opportunities for mobility can reduce vulnerability for such populations. Changes in migration patterns can be responses to both extreme weather events and longer-term climate variability and change, and migration can also be an effective adaptation strategy.
There is low confidence in quantitative projections of changes in mobility, due to its complex, multi-causal nature.
What the report actually said:
Environmental refugees?
[P]eople who have been forced to leave their traditional habitat, temporarily or permanently, because of a marked environmental disruption (natural and/or triggered by people) that jeopardisedtheir existence and/or seriously affected the quality of their life (El-Hinnawi, 1985: 4)
Environmental migrants?
[P]ersons or groups of persons who, for compelling reasons of sudden or progressive change in the environment that adversely affects their lives or living conditions, are obliged to leave their habitual homes, or choose to do so, either temporarily permanently, and who move either within their country or abroad (IOM 2007)
• Increased temperature, reduced rainfall in drylands
• Water stress, reduced growing season, increased frequency/intensity of droughts
• Sea level rise, storm surges, increased intensity of tropical cyclones
• increased flood risk in low-lying/coastal regions
• Increased temperature in temperate regions
• longer growing season in temperate regions
• Developing countries most affected, least resilient?
Key climate challenges
Rainfall trends
Multi-model averages; A1B scenario
Stippled areas: >90% models agree on sign change
December – February June – August
0
50
100
150
200
2501
98
0
19
81
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Drought
Flood
Storm
Are extreme environmental events getting more frequent? Or more intense?
Source: compiled from EM-DAT
0
5,000,000
10,000,000
15,000,000
20,000,000
25,000,000
30,000,000
35,000,000
40,000,000
45,000,000
2008 2009 2010
Displaced in climate events
Displaced in climate events involving >1m
Displaced in climate events involving >100k
Displaced in top ten climate events each year
Largest displacement
Are more people being displaced?
Source: compiled from IDMC data
The Pakistan floods (2010)
KPK: Displacement pre-dated the floods, linked to counter-insurgency
Sindh: Displacement was short-term, to government buildings
Some summary points
• Climate change is happening, with potentially severe consequences
• Migration is occurring even without climate change
• Some studies show declining migration in response to drought (at least in medium term) or inability to escape floods
• Indeed, likely continued migration to zones at risk of flooding
• Need to disaggregate different types of migration – much movement is within countries/regions and temporary in nature
• Various migration ‘drivers’ – some are more susceptible to environmental change, others less so
• What is interesting is marginal impact on migration trends – the big migration trend right now is to large, low-lying cities in Asia and Africa
Key components of the 1951 Refugee Convention
• Outside country of origin
Many affected by environmental change have not moved, or have moved internally
• Well-founded fear of persecution
Climate change or other environmental impacts are rarely seen as discriminatory in a way that amounts to ‘persecution’
• For reasons of race, religion, nationality, political opinion of membership of a particular social group
Climate change is indiscriminate – a ‘social group’ must be connected by a fundamental characteristic other than the persecution itself
• Unable to call on the protection of that country
Countries often are able and/or willing to protect
Hurricane Katrina (2005):
•Wealthier able to anticipate and escape
•Poorest trapped in Superdome during crisis
•Higher subsequent long-term displacement of poor
•New in-migration associated with recovery
Possibility for:
• Flexible and adaptable governance• Inter-agency links and cooperation• Regional approaches
A policy framework for migration in environmental change
“Reduce”
“Plan For”
“Migration as adaptation”
• Slowing the rate of change
• Reducing the impacts
• Increasing resilience
• Addressing protection gaps
• Planning for urban growth
• Dealing with conflicts
• Relocation as adaptation
• Building new cities
• Making migration work