Ricardo A. Alvarez IHRC/FIU SHMPAT PDM1 SHMPAT Meeting July 21-22, 2003.

Ricardo A. Alvarez IHRC/FIU

SHMPAT PDM 1

SHMPAT Meeting

July 21-22, 2003


SHMPAT PDM 2

To develop a process for prioritizing Florida projects to compete for PDM funding

To develop a process for prioritizing Florida projects to compete for PDM funding


SHMPAT PDM 3

To maximize the opportunities for Florida projects to qualify and be approved for PDM funding

To maximize the opportunities for Florida projects to qualify and be approved for PDM funding


SHMPAT PDM 4


SHMPAT PDM 5


SHMPAT PDM 6

Authority:

Stafford Act s. 203

DMA of 2000 s. 102

Authority:

Stafford Act s. 203

DMA of 2000 s. 102


SHMPAT PDM 7

Purpose:

Assist communities in implementing hazard mitigation programs to reduce potential for damage to the public and to facilities BEFORE the next disaster.

Purpose:

Assist communities in implementing hazard mitigation programs to reduce potential for damage to the public and to facilities BEFORE the next disaster.


SHMPAT PDM 8

DEADLINE:

September 2, 2003

PRIORITY 2003

NFIP Repetitive flood-loss

FEDERAL SHARE

$3.0 million maximum

DEADLINE:

September 2, 2003

PRIORITY 2003

NFIP Repetitive flood-loss

FEDERAL SHARE

$3.0 million maximum


SHMPAT PDM 9

COST SHARING

75% Federal 25% Applicant in-kind allowed

MANAGEMENT COST

5% max. allowed

BENEFIT-COST

BCR of 1.0 or higher

COST SHARING

75% Federal 25% Applicant in-kind allowed

MANAGEMENT COST

5% max. allowed

BENEFIT-COST

BCR of 1.0 or higher


SHMPAT PDM 10

BENEFIT-COST

Use FEMA Model

OR

Other methodology:

* Consistent w/FEMA model

* Pre-approved

BENEFIT-COST

Use FEMA Model

OR

Other methodology:

* Consistent w/FEMA model

* Pre-approved


SHMPAT PDM 11

B-C BENEFITS

Damage to buildings / infrastructure

Damage to contents

Loss of function

Degradation of function

Loss of life / injury

B-C BENEFITS

Damage to buildings / infrastructure

Damage to contents

Loss of function

Degradation of function

Loss of life / injury


SHMPAT PDM 12

ELIGIBILITY:

State agencies

Tribal governments

Local government

Private non-profit (through local Govmnt)

LMS Participant

NFIP Participant

ELIGIBILITY:

State agencies

Tribal governments

Local government

Private non-profit (through local Govmnt)

LMS Participant

NFIP Participant


SHMPAT PDM 13

ELIGIBILITY:

Natural hazards

Human hazards

ELIGIBILITY:

Natural hazards

Human hazards


SHMPAT PDM 14

ELIGIBILITY:

Property acquisition/relocation

Structural retrofitting

Non-structural retrofitting

Minor structural hazard control

Localized flood control

ELIGIBILITY:

Property acquisition/relocation

Structural retrofitting

Non-structural retrofitting

Minor structural hazard control

Localized flood control


SHMPAT PDM 15

APPLICATION:

Submit to state (DEM)

Four completed copies

Supplemental Questions for National Ranking and Evaluation

APPLICATION:

Submit to state (DEM)

Four completed copies

Supplemental Questions for National Ranking and Evaluation


SHMPAT PDM 16

APPLICATION:

Use e-Grant System

e-Grant Helpdesk

1-866-476-0544

[email protected]

APPLICATION:

Use e-Grant System

e-Grant Helpdesk

1-866-476-0544

[email protected]


SHMPAT PDM 17

PROJECT EVALUATION/SELECTION:

1. Application to State

2. State Ranking

3. National Ranking

4. National Evaluation

5. Selection and Award

6. Regional Office w/Applicants

PROJECT EVALUATION/SELECTION:

1. Application to State

2. State Ranking

3. National Ranking

4. National Evaluation

5. Selection and Award

6. Regional Office w/Applicants


SHMPAT PDM 18

NATIONAL RANKING:

Benefit-cost (51 %)

State ranking (22 %)

Community factors (10 %)

State/Tribal Plan (5 %)

Population benefiting (4 %)

Small/Impoverished (4 %)

Critical facilities (4 %)

NATIONAL RANKING:

Benefit-cost (51 %)

State ranking (22 %)

Community factors (10 %)

State/Tribal Plan (5 %)

Population benefiting (4 %)

Small/Impoverished (4 %)



SHMPAT PDM 19

NATIONAL EVALUATION:

Feasibility methodology (15 %)

Implementation schedule (14 %)

Staff/resources (13 %)

Consistency w/priority etc (11 %)

Community initiatives (9 %)


Leverage/partnerships (7 %)

Model for others (6 %)

Financial/social benefits (5 %)

Outreach activies pro hazmit (5 %)

Innovation/creativity (4 %)

National Ranking score (3 %)

NATIONAL EVALUATION:

Feasibility methodology (15 %)

Implementation schedule (14 %)

Staff/resources (13 %)

Consistency w/priority etc (11 %)

Community initiatives (9 %)


Leverage/partnerships (7 %)

Model for others (6 %)

Financial/social benefits (5 %)

Outreach activies pro hazmit (5 %)

Innovation/creativity (4 %)

National Ranking score (3 %)


SHMPAT PDM 20

SUBAPPLICANT

NFIP - LMS

D.E.M.

SHMPAT

STATE RANKING

NAT’L RANKING

NAT’L EVALUATION

SELECT’N / AWARD

D.E.M./FEMA R4

SUBAPPLICANT


SHMPAT PDM 21

SUBAPPLICANT

LMS

D.E.M. REVIEW

B-C EMPHASIS

SHMPAT REVIEW

STATE RANKING

D.E.M.

FEMA


SHMPAT PDM 22

1.SHMPAT Committee

2.DEM Review Process

3.Ranking Instrument

4.State Risk Assessment

5.Annual Probabilities by Area

6.State Enhanced Hazmit Plan

7.LMS Input

8.Mechanism for Decision

1.SHMPAT Committee

2.DEM Review Process

3.Ranking Instrument

4.State Risk Assessment

5.Annual Probabilities by Area

6.State Enhanced Hazmit Plan

7.LMS Input

8.Mechanism for Decision


SHMPAT PDM 23


SHMPAT PDM 24

From Arabic: az-zahr = the die; danger, risk, peril; chance, uncertainty, lack of predictability; expose to risk; to venture upon; source of danger

A SOURCE OF DAMAGEA SOURCE OF DAMAGE


SHMPAT PDM 25

From the Latin: damnum = damage, fine, harm + age < agere = to make; injury or harm than impairs value or usefulness; cost expense, charge

ADVERSE CONSEQUENCES FROM THE IMPACT OF A HAZARDADVERSE CONSEQUENCES FROM THE IMPACT OF A HAZARD


SHMPAT PDM 26

From the Latin: vulnus = wound, vulnerare = to wound; susceptibility to being wounded or hurt, as by a weapon.

EXPOSURE TO HAZARDSEXPOSURE TO HAZARDS


SHMPAT PDM 27

From the Latin: mitigat < mitigare < mit = mild, soft, gentle + agere = to make

DAMAGE REDUCTIONDAMAGE REDUCTION


SHMPAT PDM 28

Process to assess the

effectiveness of specific Hazmit

measures

Process to assess the

effectiveness of specific Hazmit

measures


SHMPAT PDM 29

• Hazard Mitigation Analysis

• Applying the Method

• Hazard Mitigation Analysis

• Applying the Method


SHMPAT PDM 30

Follow the Steps- 1Follow the Steps- 1

1. SELECT SUBJECT

3. SELECT HAZARD

5. ESTABLISH FREQUENCY

7. DAMAGE PER EVENT

2. ASSESS VULNERABILITY

4. SET MAGNITUDE SCALE

6. ESTABLISH BENCHMARK

8. ANNUAL DAMAGE BEFORE HAZMIT


SHMPAT PDM 31


9. IDENTIFY HAZMIT ALTERNATIVES

11. ESTABLISH COST OF MEASURE

13. ASSESS EFFECTIVENESS

15. ANNUAL BENEFITS

10. SELECT MEASURE

12. USEFUL LIFE OF PROJECT

14. ANNUAL DAMAGE AFTER HAZMIT

16. DISCOUNT RATE


SHMPAT PDM 32


17. SET PRESENT VALUE FACTOR

19. REPEAT FOR OTHER MEASURES

21. REPEAT FOR OTHER HAZARDS

18. BENEFIT-COST RATIO

20. PREFERRED MEASURE

22. AGGREGATE BENEFIT-COST

23. DECIDE


SHMPAT PDM 33

Select HazardSelect Hazard

FROM VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

* HAZARD ASSESSMENT

START WITH MOST FREQUENT HAZARD


SHMPAT PDM 34

HurricaneHurricane

CATEGORY CENTRAL PRESSURE

WIND SPEED (mph)

STORM SURGE (ft)

T.S. 39 - 73

1 ≥ 980 74 - 95 4 - 5

2 965 - 979 96 - 110 6 - 8

3 945 - 964 111 - 130 9 - 12

4 920 - 944 131 - 154 13 - 18

5 < 920 > 155 > 18


SHMPAT PDM 35

Establish FrequencyEstablish Frequency

FOR BUILDINGS OR FACILITIES USE SITE-SPECIFIC

FOR CITIES, COUNTIES OR REGIONS OF A STATE OR COUNTRY USE REGIONAL


SHMPAT PDM 36

HurricaneHurricane

FREQUENCY

* HOW OFTEN?

* HOW MANY YEARS BETWEEN HITS?

* ANNUAL PROBABILITY

* REGIONAL FREQUENCY

* SITE-SPECIFIC FREQUENCY

FREQUENCY

* HOW OFTEN?

* HOW MANY YEARS BETWEEN HITS?

* ANNUAL PROBABILITY

* REGIONAL FREQUENCY

* SITE-SPECIFIC FREQUENCY


SHMPAT PDM 37

Hurricane - FrequencyHurricane - Frequency

50 – 75 NAUT. MILES

• REGIONAL


SHMPAT PDM 38


DIRECT HIT

SITE

SITE-SPECIFICSITE-SPECIFIC


SHMPAT PDM 39


CATEGORY 75 MILE RADIUS 50 MILE RADIUS SITE-SPECIFIC

T.S 2.3 2.7 3.2

1 3.5 5.5 8.7

2 6.0 9.0 39.6

3 8.0 13.0 99.2

4 14.0 23.0 744.6

5 30.0 48.0 5589.0

FOR MIAMI-DADE IN YEARSFOR MIAMI-DADE IN YEARS


SHMPAT PDM 40


CATEGORY 75 MILE RADIUS 50 MILE RADIUS SITE-SPECIFIC

T.S 0.43478261 0.37037037 0.31120000

1 0.28571429 0.18181818 0.11440000

2 0.16666667 0.11111111 0.02528000

3 0.12500000 0.07892307 0.01008000

4 0.07142857 0.04347826 0.00134300

5 0.03333333 0.02083333 0.00017890

ANNUAL PROBABILITY FOR MIAMI-DADEANNUAL PROBABILITY FOR MIAMI-DADE


SHMPAT PDM 41

Establish BenchmarkEstablish Benchmark

A HURRICANE EVENT FOR WHICH YOU CAN ACTUALLY GO TO THE AFFECTED AREA TO OBSERVE THE DAMAGE

OR INFORMATION ABOUT AN EVENT FROM THE HISTORICAL RECORD

A HURRICANE EVENT FOR WHICH YOU CAN ACTUALLY GO TO THE AFFECTED AREA TO OBSERVE THE DAMAGE

OR INFORMATION ABOUT AN EVENT FROM THE HISTORICAL RECORD


SHMPAT PDM 42

Determine Damage per Event 1Determine Damage per Event 1

THE BENCHMARK NEEDS TO IDENTIFY THE CATEGORY OF HURRICANE AND THE DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH IT

THIS BECOMES THE DAMAGE PER EVENT FOR THAT SPECIFIC CATEGORY

THE BENCHMARK NEEDS TO IDENTIFY THE CATEGORY OF HURRICANE AND THE DAMAGE ASSOCIATED WITH IT

THIS BECOMES THE DAMAGE PER EVENT FOR THAT SPECIFIC CATEGORY


SHMPAT PDM 43

Determine Damage per Event 2Determine Damage per Event 2

FROM THE KNOWN BENCHMARK EXTRAPOLATE TO OTHER CATEGORIES OF HURRICANES AND ESTIMATE THE DAMAGE FOR EACH ONE OF THEM. DAMAGE WILL BE HICHER FOR HIGHER CATEGORIES AND VICEVERSA

FROM THE KNOWN BENCHMARK EXTRAPOLATE TO OTHER CATEGORIES OF HURRICANES AND ESTIMATE THE DAMAGE FOR EACH ONE OF THEM. DAMAGE WILL BE HICHER FOR HIGHER CATEGORIES AND VICEVERSA


SHMPAT PDM 44

Annualize Damages by Category of Hurricane

Annualize Damages by Category of Hurricane

THIS IS A FUNCTION OF THE DAMAGE PER EVENT AND THE ANNUAL PROBABILITY FOR EACH CATEGORY OF HURRICANE

THIS CAN BE GIVEN AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE VALUE AT RISK OR AS A DOLLAR AMOUNT

THIS IS A FUNCTION OF THE DAMAGE PER EVENT AND THE ANNUAL PROBABILITY FOR EACH CATEGORY OF HURRICANE

THIS CAN BE GIVEN AS A PERCENTAGE OF THE VALUE AT RISK OR AS A DOLLAR AMOUNT


SHMPAT PDM 45

ANNUAL DAMAGEBEFORE

HAZARD MITIGATION

ANNUAL DAMAGEBEFORE

HAZARD MITIGATION

THIS IS EQUAL TO THE SUMMATORY OF ANNUAL DAMAGES, IN DOLLARS, FOR EACH CATEGORY OF HURRICANE

THIS IS EQUAL TO THE SUMMATORY OF ANNUAL DAMAGES, IN DOLLARS, FOR EACH CATEGORY OF HURRICANE


SHMPAT PDM 46

IDENTIFYHAZARD MITIGATION

ALTERNATIVES

IDENTIFYHAZARD MITIGATION

ALTERNATIVES

MUST BE RELATED TO SPECIFIC CAUSES OF DIRECT DAMAGEMUST BE RELATED TO SPECIFIC CAUSES OF DIRECT DAMAGE


SHMPAT PDM 47

ESTABLISH COSTFOR EACH MEASURE

ESTABLISH COSTFOR EACH MEASURE

TAKE INTO ACCOUNT COST OF PERIODIC MAINTENANCETAKE INTO ACCOUNT COST OF PERIODIC MAINTENANCE


SHMPAT PDM 48

ASSESS THEEFFECTIVENESS

OF EACH IDENTIFIEDHAZARD MITIGATION

ALTERNATIVE

ASSESS THEEFFECTIVENESS

OF EACH IDENTIFIEDHAZARD MITIGATION

ALTERNATIVE

Technical, Structural, Logistical, Capability for damage-reduction by category of hurricane

Technical, Structural, Logistical, Capability for damage-reduction by category of hurricane


SHMPAT PDM 49

Benefits of HazmitBenefits of Hazmit

THE BENEFITS OF A SPECIFIC

HAZARD MITIGATION MEASURE ARE

EQUAL TO THE ANNUALREDUCTION

IN POTENTIAL DAMAGE, FROM THE

IMPACT OF A HAZARD, OVER THE

USEFUL LIFE OF THE PROJECT

THE BENEFITS OF A SPECIFIC

HAZARD MITIGATION MEASURE ARE

EQUAL TO THE ANNUALREDUCTION

IN POTENTIAL DAMAGE, FROM THE

IMPACT OF A HAZARD, OVER THE

USEFUL LIFE OF THE PROJECT


SHMPAT PDM 50

ESTABLISHANNUAL DAMAGE

AFTERHAZARD MITIGATION

ESTABLISHANNUAL DAMAGE

AFTERHAZARD MITIGATION


SHMPAT PDM 51

DETERMINE USEFULLIFE

OF PROJECTFOR EACH

HAZARD MITIGATIONMEASURE

DETERMINE USEFULLIFE

OF PROJECTFOR EACH

HAZARD MITIGATIONMEASURE


SHMPAT PDM 52

Benefits of HazmitBenefits of Hazmit

BENEFITS ACCRUE OVER TIME DURING THE USEFUL LIFE OF THE PROJECT

TO BE COST-EFFECTIVE THE BENEFITS OF A HAZMIT MEASURE MUST BE EQUAL TO OR EXCEED ITS COST


SHMPAT PDM 53

Benefit-Cost RatioBenefit-Cost Ratio

BENEFIT-COST RATIO = BCR

BENEFIT

COST

HAZMIT MEASURE IS COST-EFFECTIVEHAZMIT MEASURE IS COST-EFFECTIVE

≥ 1IF


SHMPAT PDM 54

The Time-Value of MoneyThe Time-Value of Money

• TO COMPARE BENEFITS THAT ACCRUE OVER TIME TO A COST INCURRED TODAY

• WE MUST COMPARE THEM IN TERMS OF THEIR PRESENT VALUE

• HOW MUCH IS A BENEFIT TO BE RECEIVED IN THE FUTURE WORTH TODAY?


SHMPAT PDM 55

Present Value FactorPresent Value Factor

• THE PRESENT VALUE OF MONEY IS A FUNCTION OF:

* TIME

* DISCOUNT RATE

• A PRESENT VALUE FACTOR (PVF) IS USED TO COVERT ANNUAL BENEFITS TO PRESENT VALUE.


SHMPAT PDM 56

ESTABLISH DISCOUNT RATETO BE USED

FORBENEFIT-COST

ANALYSIS

ESTABLISH DISCOUNT RATETO BE USED

FORBENEFIT-COST

ANALYSIS


SHMPAT PDM 57

PVF – Discrete Compounding – 7% discount rate – Equal Payment Series

N Pvf N Pvf N Pvf

1 0.9346 11 7.4987 25 11.6536

2 1.8080 12 7.9427 26 11.8258

3 2.6243 13 8.3577 27 11,9867

4 3.3872 14 8.7455 28 12.1371

5 4.1002 15 9.1079 29 12.2777

6 4.7665 16 9.4467 30 12.4091

7 5.3893 17 9.7632 35 12.9477

8 5.9713 18 10.0591 40 13.3317

9 6.5152 19 10.3356 45 13.6955

10 7.0236 20 10.5940 50 13.8008


SHMPAT PDM 58

Converting to Present ValueConverting to Present Value

• IF ANNUAL BENEFITS ARE : $2,500

• USEFUL LIFE OF PROJECT IS: 20 YRS

• ANNUAL DISCOUNT RATE IS : 7%

• FROM TABLE:

PVF = 10.5940• PRESENT VALUE OF BENEFITS IS:

B x PVF = $2500 x 10.5940 = $26,485

• IF ANNUAL BENEFITS ARE : $2,500

• USEFUL LIFE OF PROJECT IS: 20 YRS

• ANNUAL DISCOUNT RATE IS : 7%

• FROM TABLE:

PVF = 10.5940• PRESENT VALUE OF BENEFITS IS:

B x PVF = $2500 x 10.5940 = $26,485


SHMPAT PDM 59

CALCULATEBENEFIT-COST RATIO

FOR EACH OF THEIDENTIFIED

HAZARD MITIGATION MEASURES

CALCULATEBENEFIT-COST RATIO

FOR EACH OF THEIDENTIFIED

HAZARD MITIGATION MEASURES


SHMPAT PDM 60

SELECTTHE PREFERRED

HAZARD MITIGATION MEASURE

SELECTTHE PREFERRED

HAZARD MITIGATION MEASURE


SHMPAT PDM 61

REPEAT PROCESSFOR EACH OF THE

IDENTIFIED HAZARDSFROM THE

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT

REPEAT PROCESSFOR EACH OF THE

IDENTIFIED HAZARDSFROM THE

VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT


SHMPAT PDM 62

COMPUTE THE AGGREGATEBENEFIT-COST RATIO

FOR ALL HAZARDSAND THE SELECTED

PREFERREDHAZARD MITIGATION

MEASURES

COMPUTE THE AGGREGATEBENEFIT-COST RATIO

FOR ALL HAZARDSAND THE SELECTED

PREFERREDHAZARD MITIGATION

MEASURES


SHMPAT PDM 63

DECIDEDECIDE

Ricardo A. Alvarez IHRC/FIU SHMPAT PDM1 SHMPAT Meeting July 21-22, 2003.

Documents

Transcript of Ricardo A. Alvarez IHRC/FIU SHMPAT PDM1 SHMPAT Meeting July 21-22, 2003.