R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference...

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference International Aircraft Fire and Cabin International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Safety Research Conference – Lisbon – Lisbon November 2004 November 2004 Reduction in Rate of Fire Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and Deaths Caused Accidents and Deaths

Transcript of R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference...

Page 1: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 1International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Research Conference – Lisbon November 2004– Lisbon November 2004

Reduction in Rate of Fire Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and DeathsCaused Accidents and Deaths

Page 2: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 2International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and DeathsAccidents and Deaths

The Research Study was commissioned by The Research Study was commissioned by Transport Canada. Transport Canada.

Its objective was to determine any trends that Its objective was to determine any trends that might exist in occupant survival in passenger might exist in occupant survival in passenger aircraft accidents. aircraft accidents.

Over the past thirty years improvements have Over the past thirty years improvements have been made to many occupant survival factors, been made to many occupant survival factors, however little is known as to the real effect that however little is known as to the real effect that these improvements have made to the these improvements have made to the survivability of occupants. survivability of occupants.

Page 3: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 3International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and DeathsAccidents and Deaths

i)i) An assessment of the trend in the Total Fatal An assessment of the trend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate.Accident Rate.

ii)ii) An assessment of the trend based on those fatal An assessment of the trend based on those fatal accidents that have been caused by aircraft fires. accidents that have been caused by aircraft fires.

iii)iii) An assessment of the trend in the proportion of An assessment of the trend in the proportion of fire fatalities occurring in aircraft accidents as a fire fatalities occurring in aircraft accidents as a function of total number of occupant fatalities.function of total number of occupant fatalities.

Three separate studies were carried out on Three separate studies were carried out on western world turbojet aircraft as follows:western world turbojet aircraft as follows:

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 4International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents and DeathsAccidents and Deaths

i)i) The accident occurred to a Western World The accident occurred to a Western World Turbojet aircraft Turbojet aircraft

ii)ii) The accident resulted in at least one The accident resulted in at least one fatalityfatality

iii)iii) The aircraft was operating in the The aircraft was operating in the Passenger or Passenger/Cargo role with Passenger or Passenger/Cargo role with passengers on-boardpassengers on-board

Accidents were studied that satisfied the Accidents were studied that satisfied the following criteria:following criteria:

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 5International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Trend in the Total Fatal Trend in the Total Fatal Accident RateAccident Rate

So what is the trend in So what is the trend in total accident rate?total accident rate?

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 6International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Trend in the Total Fatal Trend in the Total Fatal Accident RateAccident Rate

DateTotal

Landings (x1000)

Cumulative landings (x1000)

ACCIDENTSCUMULATIVE ACCIDENTS

Cumulative Accidents per

landing

1991 13,079 232,953 8 271 1.16E-06

1992 13,710 246,663 8 279 1.13E-06

1993 14,268 260,931 11 290 1.11E-06

1994 15,097 276,028 10 300 1.09E-06

1995 15,852 291,880 6 306 1.05E-06

1996 16,642 308,522 12 318 1.03E-06

1997 17,372 325,894 10 328 1.01E-06

1998 17,992 343,886 9 337 9.80E-07

1999 18,953 362,839 9 346 9.54E-07

2000 20,501 383,340 10 356 9.29E-07

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 7International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

0.E+00

1.E-06

2.E-06

0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000

Cumulative Hours Presentations/ I Mech E/ Accident Data3 - Duane Hours

We

ste

rn B

uilt

Je

t A

irc

raft

-

Ac

cid

en

ts p

er

air

cra

ft h

ou

r ACCIDENT RATE

1 x 10-6

2 x 10-6

5 x 10-7

Civil Transport Aircraft Civil Transport Aircraft Fatal Accident Rate – Turbo Jet All CausesFatal Accident Rate – Turbo Jet All Causes

YEAR 2002

YEAR 1967

0

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 8International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

0.E+00

1.E-06

2.E-06

0 200,000,000 400,000,000 600,000,000 800,000,000

Cumulative Hours Presentations/ I Mech E/ Accident Data3 - Duane Hours

Wes

tern

Bu

ilt J

et A

ircr

aft

- A

ccid

ents

per

air

craf

t h

ou

r

ACCIDENT RATE

Log. (ACCIDENTRATE)

1 x 10-6

2 x 10-6

5 x 10-7

Civil Transport Aircraft Civil Transport Aircraft Fatal Accident Rate – Turbo Jet All CausesFatal Accident Rate – Turbo Jet All Causes

YEAR 2002

YEAR 1967

0

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 9International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Trend in the Total Fatal Trend in the Total Fatal Accident RateAccident Rate

DateTotal

Landings (x1000)

Cumulative landings (x1000)

ACCIDENTSCUMULATIVE ACCIDENTS

Cumulative Accidents per

landing

1991 13,079 232,953 8 271 1.16E-06

1992 13,710 246,663 8 279 1.13E-06

1993 14,268 260,931 11 290 1.11E-06

1994 15,097 276,028 10 300 1.09E-06

1995 15,852 291,880 6 306 1.05E-06

1996 16,642 308,522 12 318 1.03E-06

1997 17,372 325,894 10 328 1.01E-06

1998 17,992 343,886 9 337 9.80E-07

1999 18,953 362,839 9 346 9.54E-07

2000 20,501 383,340 10 356 9.29E-07

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 10International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Trend in the Total Fatal Accident RateTrend in the Total Fatal Accident Rate

Another way of presenting the data is to Another way of presenting the data is to use the Duane Growth Modeluse the Duane Growth Model

2

y = -0.2952x - 4.3628

R = 0.9820

Cumulative Landings - Logarithmic Scale

0923/Master Spreadsheet Feasibility Study/Figures.ppt

Ac

cid

ent

Rat

e p

er L

and

ing

Lo

gar

ith

mic

Sca

le

Cumulative Accident Rate

Instantaneous Accident Rate

10 -5

107

10 -6

10 -7108 109

2

y = -0.2952x - 4.3628

R = 0.98202

y = -0.2952x - 4.3628

R = 0.9820

Cumulative Landings - Logarithmic Scale

0923/Master Spreadsheet Feasibility Study/Figures.ppt

Ac

cid

ent

Rat

e p

er L

and

ing

Lo

gar

ith

mic

Sca

le

Cumulative Accident Rate

Instantaneous Accident Rate

Cumulative Accident Rate

Instantaneous Accident Rate

10 -5

107

10 -6

10 -7108 109

YEAR 2000

YEAR 1974

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 11International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS PER YEAR

0

10

20

30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

YEAR A C C I DE NT DA T A 3 DU A NE HOUR S

Actual and Predicted Number of Accidents to Actual and Predicted Number of Accidents to Western World TurbojetsWestern World Turbojets

Page 12: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 12International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Actual and Predicted Number of Accidents to Actual and Predicted Number of Accidents to Western World TurbojetsWestern World Turbojets

NUMBER OF ACCIDENTS PER YEAR

0

10

20

30

1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030

YEAR A C C I DE NT DA T A 3 DU A NE HOUR S

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 13International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused AccidentsReduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents

Date Aircraft Type Accident Identifier Total Occupants Total Fatalities Fire Source

23-Jun-67 BAC1-11 204AF MOHAWK BAC 1-11 34 34 In-flight Equipment Bay Fire08-Apr-68 B707-465 HEATHROW B707 127 5 Ground Fuel Fire26-Jul-69 CARAVELLE BISKRA CARAVELLE 37 35 in-flight Cabin Fire11-Jul-73 B707 ORLY B707 134 123 in-flight Cabin Fire15-Mar-74 CARAVELLE 10B3 TEHERAN CARAVELLE 96 15 Ground Fuel Fire26-Nov-79 B707-340C JEDDAH B707 156 156 in-flight Cabin Fire19-Aug-80 L1011 RIYADH L1011 301 301 Cargo Compartment Fire02-Jun-83 DC9-32 CINCINNATI DC9 46 23 in-flight Cabin Fire30-Aug-84 B737-200 DOUALA B737 118 2 Ground Fuel Fire22-Aug-85 B737-236 Sr1 MANCHESTER B737 137 55 Ground Fuel Fire28-Nov-87 B747-244B INDIAN OCEAN B747 159 159 Cargo Compartment Fire11-May-90 B737-300 MANILA B737 119 8 Ground Fuel Fire/Explosion11-Jul-91 DC8-61 JEDDAH DC8 261 261 Wheelwell Fire11-May-96 DC9-32 VALUJET DC9 110 110 Cargo Compartment Fire02-Sep-98 MD11 SWISSAIR MD-11 231 231 In flight Cabin Fire

0923/Master Spreadsheet Feasibility Study/all fire caused accident landing

Page 14: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 14International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Reduction in Rate of Fire Caused AccidentsReduction in Rate of Fire Caused Accidents

y = -0.4204x - 3.7922

R2 = 0.9450

Cumulative Landings - Logarithmic Scale 0923/Master Spreadsheet Feasibility Study/Figures.ppt

Acc

iden

t R

ate

per

Lan

din

g

–L

og

arit

hm

ic S

cale

10 -5

107

10 -6

10 -7

108 109

10 -8106

Cumulative Accident Rate

Instantaneous Accident Rate

y = -0.4204x - 3.7922

R2 = 0.9450

Cumulative Landings - Logarithmic Scale 0923/Master Spreadsheet Feasibility Study/Figures.ppt

Acc

iden

t R

ate

per

Lan

din

g

–L

og

arit

hm

ic S

cale

10 -5

107

10 -6

10 -7

108 109

10 -8106

Cumulative Accident Rate

Instantaneous Accident Rate

Cumulative Accident Rate

Instantaneous Accident Rate

YEAR 2000

YEAR 1967

Page 15: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 15International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Trends In Fire FatalitiesTrends In Fire Fatalities

An assessment of the proportion of An assessment of the proportion of fatalities attributable to fire in accidents fatalities attributable to fire in accidents to western built aircraft over the period to western built aircraft over the period

1967 to 2000 inclusive1967 to 2000 inclusive

Page 16: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 16International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Trends In Fire FatalitiesTrends In Fire Fatalities•131 Accidents were studied and an 131 Accidents were studied and an assessment made of the number of assessment made of the number of fatalities attributable to fire. fatalities attributable to fire. • Where a precise determination could Where a precise determination could not be made of the number of fatalities not be made of the number of fatalities attributable to the fire the maximum attributable to the fire the maximum and minimum number possible was and minimum number possible was recorded. recorded.

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R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 17International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Trends In Fire FatalitiesTrends In Fire Fatalities

16-Jan-83 B727 47 47 0 3284 2754 1556 0.84 0.47 0.6611-Mar-83 DC9 23 23 0 3307 2777 1556 0.84 0.47 0.6602-Jun-83 DC9-32 23 23 23 3330 2800 1579 0.84 0.47 0.6611-Jul-83 B737-2V2 118 118 11 3448 2918 1590 0.85 0.46 0.6514-Sep-83 TRIDENT 2 11 0 0 3459 2918 1590 0.84 0.46 0.6527-Nov-83 B747 181 181 0 3640 3099 1590 0.85 0.44 0.6428-Nov-83 F28 53 53 0 3693 3152 1590 0.85 0.43 0.6407-Dec-83 B727-200 51 46 0 3744 3198 1590 0.85 0.42 0.6407-Dec-83 DC9-32 42 0 0 3786 3198 1590 0.84 0.42 0.6330-Aug-84 B737-200 2 2 2 3788 3200 1592 0.84 0.42 0.6323-Feb-85 B707-300 1 0 0 3789 3200 1592 0.84 0.42 0.6315-Aug-85 B707-300 3 0 0 3792 3200 1592 0.84 0.42 0.63

22-Aug-85 B737-236 Sr1 55 55 55 3847 3255 1647 0.85 0.43 0.6412-Dec-85 DC8-63 256 72 31 4103 3327 1678 0.81 0.41 0.6103-Jan-87 B707 50 50 1 4153 3377 1679 0.81 0.4 0.6104-Apr-87 DC9 23 23 23 4176 3400 1702 0.81 0.41 0.6104-Aug-87 B737-200 1 1 1 4177 3401 1703 0.81 0.41 0.61

Fire Maximum

Fire Minimum Fire Average

Fire Minimum

TotalFire

MaximumFire

Minimum

Cumulative Fatlities Fatlities Proportion of Fire Fatlities

Date Aircraft Type TotalFire

Maximum

Sample DataSample Data

Page 18: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 18International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

Trends In Fire FatalitiesTrends In Fire Fatalities

y = -0.0000134x + 0.6804081

0.000.100.200.30

0.400.50

0.600.700.800.90

1.00

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000Cumulative Number of Fatalities

0923/Master Spreadsheet Feasibility Study/All Data

Pro

port

ion

of F

atal

ities

at

trib

utab

le to

Fir

e Maximum

Minimum

Average

y = -0.0000134x + 0.6804081

0.000.100.200.30

0.400.50

0.600.700.800.90

1.00

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000Cumulative Number of Fatalities

0923/Master Spreadsheet Feasibility Study/All Data

Pro

port

ion

of F

atal

ities

at

trib

utab

le to

Fir

e

y = -0.0000134x + 0.6804081

0.000.100.200.30

0.400.50

0.600.700.800.90

1.00

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000Cumulative Number of Fatalities

0923/Master Spreadsheet Feasibility Study/All Data

Pro

port

ion

of F

atal

ities

at

trib

utab

le to

Fir

e Maximum

Minimum

Average

Maximum

Minimum

Average

Page 19: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 19International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

y = -0.0000357x + 0.8151364

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Cumulative Number of Fatalities 0923/Master Spreadsheet Feasibility Study/All Data with Info Death

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f F

atal

itie

s at

trib

uta

ble

to

F

ire

y = -0.0000357x + 0.8151364

0.000.100.200.300.400.500.600.700.800.901.00

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000

Cumulative Number of Fatalities 0923/Master Spreadsheet Feasibility Study/All Data with Info Death

Pro

po

rtio

n o

f F

atal

itie

s at

trib

uta

ble

to

F

ire

Trends In Fire FatalitiesTrends In Fire Fatalities

Page 20: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 20International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

ConclusionsConclusions

The Duane Growth Model seems to The Duane Growth Model seems to represent the improvement in fatal represent the improvement in fatal accident rate to western world turbojets accident rate to western world turbojets for All fatal accidents & Fatal accidents for All fatal accidents & Fatal accidents attributable to fireattributable to fire

Page 21: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 21International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

ConclusionsConclusions

There appears to be a continuous There appears to be a continuous downward trend in the total Fatal downward trend in the total Fatal Accident Rate and the accident rate Accident Rate and the accident rate attributable to fire, for western built attributable to fire, for western built turbojet aircraft, over the period 1967 to turbojet aircraft, over the period 1967 to 2000.2000.

Page 22: R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference Slide 1 International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety.

R.G.W. Cherry & Associates Limited Slide 22International Aircraft Fire and Cabin Safety Research Conference

ConclusionsConclusions

• The proportion of fatalities The proportion of fatalities attributable to fire appears to attributable to fire appears to demonstrate a continuous downward demonstrate a continuous downward trend over the period 1967 to 2000.trend over the period 1967 to 2000.

• However, further data are required to However, further data are required to confirm this conclusion.confirm this conclusion.