Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s capacity to respond ... · Chloe Munro December 2011...

Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s

capacity to respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events and to provide

seasonal forecasting services

Report by Chloe Munro

December 2011

An independent report commissioned by the Department of

Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities and presented to

the Australian Government Parliamentary Secretary for

Sustainability and Urban Water

Chloe Munro

December 2011

Disclaimer

This report was prepared by Chloe Munro. The views it contains are not necessarily those of the Australian Government. While reasonable efforts have been made to ensure that the

contents of this publication are factually correct, the Commonwealth does not accept responsibility for the accuracy or completeness of the contents, and shall not be liable for

any loss or damage that may be occasioned directly or indirectly through the use of, or reliance on, the contents of this publication.

Senator the Hon Don Farrell

Parliamentary Secretary for Sustainability and Urban Water

Parliament House

Canberra ACT 2600

Dear Senator

On 18 July 2011 you announced a Review of the capacity of the Bureau of Meteorology to respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events and to provide accurate and timely seasonal forecasting services.

The announcement was timely, given recent experience of multiple severe weather events across Australia. Near concurrent floods, tropical cyclones and bushfires in late 2010 to early 2011 placed the Bureau under enormous pressure.

It has been a great pleasure to lead this Review and I have been impressed by the high regard in which the Bureau is held and by the dedication and commitment of the Bureau’s staff. I would also like to express my gratitude to all those who assisted me in the Review, including many stakeholders and customers of the Bureau’s services, the Bureau’s Executive Team and staff, and the Review Secretariat.

Taking as a starting point the experiences and expectations of the individuals and organisations who rely on the Bureau’s services, the Review carefully examined the Bureau’s operations, and identified numerous strengths, some areas of weakness, and risks that require early attention. The Review has proposed a suite of priority actions to address these risks and additional options for further consideration by the Bureau and by the government.

I trust you will find this report informative and that it will assist the government and the Bureau to chart a course for the future that maintains the Bureau’s capacity to provide vital services for the benefit of all Australians.

Yours sincerely

Chloe Munro

December 2011

Cc Paul Grimes Secretary Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities

Table of Contents Acknowledgements....................................................................................................................... i

Executive Overview...................................................................................................................... ii

Context for this Review ....................................................................................................................... ii Headline Findings ............................................................................................................................... iii

Introduction ................................................................................................................................ 1

Review Context and Purpose ............................................................................................................... 1 The Bureau .......................................................................................................................................... 1 Approach taken by the Review ........................................................................................................... 2 Structure of the report ........................................................................................................................ 2

Chapter 1 Customers, Services and Trends in Demand .................................................................. 3

1.1 Extreme weather and flood warning services ............................................................................... 3 1.2 Seasonal forecasting services ...................................................................................................... 16 1.3 General weather forecasting ...................................................................................................... 20 1.4 Other services .............................................................................................................................. 23 1.5 The Basic Product Set .................................................................................................................. 25 1.6 Discretion to manage workloads during peaks of demand ........................................................ 26

Chapter 2 Capacity, Capability and Constraints ........................................................................... 28

2.1 People .......................................................................................................................................... 28 2.2 Processes ..................................................................................................................................... 34 2.3 Technology .................................................................................................................................. 35 2.4 Other inputs and suppliers .......................................................................................................... 39

Chapter 3 Challenges, Risks and Opportunities ........................................................................... 42

3.1 Findings from other reviews ........................................................................................................ 42 3.2 Gaps and inconsistencies in services ........................................................................................... 46 3.3 Delivery risks ............................................................................................................................... 50

Chapter 4 Practical Steps ............................................................................................................ 53

4.1 Overview ..................................................................................................................................... 53 4.2 Recommended priority actions to mitigate risks requiring early attention ................................ 58 4.3 Recommended priority actions that involve strategic choices for government.......................... 62 4.4 Recommended priority actions for the Bureau to support consistent service standards and build organisational resilience ................................................................................................................... 67 4.5 Options that could provide savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau .... 69 4.6 Options to provide enhanced services where there is proven demand ...................................... 74

Appendices ................................................................................................................................ 80

Appendix A: Terms of Reference ....................................................................................................... 80 Appendix B: List of submissions and questionnaire responses ......................................................... 82 Appendix C: Stakeholder questionnaire ............................................................................................ 86 Appendix D: Recommendations from the Process Review ................................................................ 93 Appendix E: Peer Reviewers .............................................................................................................. 94 Appendix F: Bureau functions ........................................................................................................... 95 Appendix G: Report cross-referenced against the Review’s Terms of Reference.............................. 96 Appendix H: Bibliography .................................................................................................................. 98 Appendix I: Abbreviations ............................................................................................................... 102 Appendix J: Glossary ....................................................................................................................... 103 Endnotes.......................................................................................................................................... 104

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Acknowledgements

I was greatly assisted in this Review by the Bureau’s Director, Greg Ayers, Acting Director, Rob Vertessy, the Executive Team, and many other staff who responded openly and comprehensively to the Review’s many requests for information.

I also thank Jim Abraham, Director-General, Weather and Environmental Monitoring, Meteorological Service of Canada; Gary Carter, Director, Office of Hydrologic Development, United States National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration; and Rob Varley, Operations and Services Director, UK Met Office. In their peer reviews of the draft report, these international experts validated many of the Review’s initial findings and provided useful additional insights.

I very much appreciated the direct input of the Bureau’s stakeholders, who took the time to meet with me and members of the Review Secretariat at various locations across the country, or to provide written submissions against the Review’s terms of reference.

In particular, I would like to acknowledge James Shevlin, Chair of the inter-departmental Steering Committee, and the Review Secretariat: Jacqueline Doyle, Glenn Block, and Jim Baldwin from the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities and Anthony Rea from the Bureau. I was fortunate to be supported by such a capable and hard working team.

Chloe Munro

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Executive Overview

Context for this Review

The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) is one of Australia’s most cherished institutions. For most Australians, not a day would go by without commenting on the weather, checking the forecast and making some decision based on the outlook, which has more than likely been sourced from the Bureau. In many cases these are minor decisions with marginal impact – whether to carry an umbrella or to plan an outing for the weekend. Others have more substantial value – whether conditions will be suitable for laying concrete, or what energy demand is forecast.

For some industries, notably agriculture, significant economic decisions are taken with the medium term seasonal outlook in mind. Such decisions are based on experience, knowledge of the local climate record and expert advice frequently including information from the Bureau.

When extreme weather conditions are imminent, the Bureau’s warnings and alerts have even greater significance for the protection of life and property. As natural disasters unfold, key decisions by the emergency services are predicated on advice from the Bureau about how the event is progressing. Emergency planning and preparedness and post-event recovery and review are also assisted by evidence from the Bureau.

This Review has been commissioned to examine the capacity of the Bureau to provide these crucial services in light of the recent increase in frequency of extreme events which has been accompanied by greater demands on the Bureau for information and advice. Climate change modelling indicates the incidence and severity of extreme weather and natural disaster events may increase in the future. Climate change also means that the historical record provides less reliable guidance on the expected range of seasonal conditions, increasing the value of accurate and timely seasonal forecasting services.

In addressing its terms of reference the Review has focussed on factors which affect the sustainability of the Bureau as an enterprise. Starting with the Bureau’s customers, the Review has examined their experience and expectations of the Bureau’s products and services and more generally the drivers of future demand. This provided the context for an assessment of the Bureau’s people, processes and technology which together create the capacity to respond. Some clear themes emerged from this analysis, in terms of risks to

maintaining current capacity in the medium term and constraints on the ability of the Bureau to respond to changes in demand.

Critically, some of the drivers of future demand are dependent on choices made by governments regarding the use of finite resources in protecting communities from the impact of severe weather events and natural disasters. Changes to the structure and funding of Australia’s emergency management system would have an impact on the capacity that is required of the Bureau if it is to play its part in this system to an adequate standard. Any new initiatives, such as any greater involvement through AusAID in disaster response in neighbouring countries, or the implementation of a national framework for heatwaves, would similarly depend on the capacity of the Bureau to contribute.

These questions are particularly pressing in the area of flood management. The Review has found ambiguity and inconsistencies in roles and responsibilities of the various players, including the Bureau. A comprehensive solution to these problems is beyond the scope of this Review as it would require extensive consultation with and commitment from all levels of government. However, clarifying and communicating roles and responsibilities is a necessary precondition to determining what is required of the Bureau and therefore what actions should be taken to secure the necessary capacity. Some, but not all, options for strengthening Australia’s system of flood management would entail a greater role for the Bureau.

Similarly, with respect to seasonal forecasting and other value-adding services, the extent to which the gap between capacity to supply and emerging demand should be closed depends on the strategic direction set for the Bureau by the Australian Government. Necessarily, unless full cost-recovery is feasible, any step change in the range and quality of services delivered by the Bureau requires investment of resources in competition with other priorities of government.

For these reasons, the Review has formulated its recommendations as either priority actions or options for future consideration. The priority actions are directed towards the most immediate challenges facing the Bureau, and include some alternatives which depend on the Australian Government’s views about the strategic direction of the Bureau and its operating context. Some reappraisal of the relative priority of recent initiatives might be required.

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Indicative implementation costs or potential savings are provided for many of the options. These estimates are based on financial data provided by the Bureau and other sources. The Review has not independently validated these data and envisages that any actions undertaken as a result of its findings will be subject to rigorous assessment in the normal course of the Budget process.

While germane to the findings of this Review, the national arrangements for flood management are beyond its terms of reference. Nevertheless, because of the significance of the issues raised some options have been identified for adjusting these arrangements. Some of these options would require a decision by the Australian Government to take on responsibilities that currently rest with the other tiers of government but arguably are not being discharged as effectively as the community expects. Given the nature of flood risk and the extent of the recovery costs that have been borne by the Australian Government in recent events, these options are worthy of consideration at least in principle.

Headline Findings

Demand

It could be said that the Bureau is victim of its own success. The Review has found a high degree of respect for the Bureau’s capability and people, and general satisfaction with the Bureau’s services. However, this is coupled with a widely articulated desire for enhanced products and higher levels of service.

Many of the customers for the services which are the subject of this Review are well aware of the opportunity for improvement from new technology or infrastructure investment. For example, the radar views are amongst the most heavily visited pages on the Bureau’s website and they provide critical information to emergency management agencies. As a result there is an expressed demand for gaps in radar coverage to be filled.

Some customers are also aware of the services available internationally including developments in modelling techniques which can improve the accuracy and range of forecasts. For example, the Interim Report of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry recommended that “information [should be requested] from the Bureau of Meteorology as to its willingness to provide ensemble forecasts and consideration [be given] as to whether and how ensemble forecasts

can be incorporated into decision-making.” Users of the Bureau’s Seasonal Climate Outlook product also believe it would have greater utility if was offered at higher resolution, so that they could make decisions based on the outlook for their immediate locality rather than the average over a whole region.

In addition, some exogenous factors are driving demand in a way which is difficult for the Bureau to resist. Whether or not as a manifestation of climate change, the incidence and severity of extreme weather events appears to be increasing. This is highlighted in the chart below which shows the trend in the number of severe weather warnings issued by the Bureau nationally since 1997 (see Diagram 1).

Diagram 1 – Severe weather warnings, July 1997 to June 2011

This trend is expected to continue. Urban development and growth in fixed infrastructure is also increasing sensitivity to the impact of these events. The resulting pressure on the Bureau has been exacerbated by events of different types striking in several parts of the country in more or less the same time periods.

Heightened state and local government risk awareness has led to new investment in local emergency services and some changes in the way they are organised and disasters are managed. This has led to greater expectations on the Bureau to deliver tailored services, including frequent briefings and updates and to contribute both to planning processes and to post-incident reviews. There is also an expressed preference to deal with known and trusted individuals who have sufficient local experience and communication skill to deliver weather information in a way which is most relevant to decision-makers on the ground.

Media expectations form a significant part of this demand, driven by the proliferation of news

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channels and the advent of 24 hour news broadcasting as well as the need to use all available channels so that warnings and alerts reach as wide an audience as possible.

If state-based emergency management systems change in some jurisdictions, it does not automatically follow that the Bureau can or should change its services to match. There are certainly benefits to the current level of integration that is evident between the Bureau’s regional services and the local emergency management arrangements. In the best cases, this is underpinned by an explicit Memorandum of Understanding and cost-recovery for services which are deemed to be beyond the Bureau’s basic product set. But there are also costs associated with inconsistent arrangements that have developed in different jurisdictions and with services being provided on an ad-hoc basis without clarifying that the necessary resources may not be available to deliver those services on all occasions.

Changes in policy by other agencies, such as an increase in prescribed burning or the introduction of the new fire danger rating system, place demands on the Bureau regardless of whether it has the capacity to service this demand. To address this risk, this Review concludes it would be beneficial to document all service level agreements between the Bureau and the relevant emergency services organisations. Any change in service level would require explicit agreement about how the requisite resources were to be funded. It is likely that this approach would bring to the fore some inconsistencies in the current arrangements in different jurisdictions. It would then be desirable to establish some guiding principles, perhaps with the leadership of Emergency Management Australia, to clarify the boundary between the services to be funded by the Australian Government and those to be cost-recovered.

People

The Bureau is facing a number of constraints to its capacity to respond to these general trends in demand. Perhaps the most critical of these is simply the limited number of skilled meteorologists and hydrologists who are able to deliver frontline services during extreme weather events. Recent experience has shown how the Bureau can be stretched to the limits of its capacity by long running or simultaneous events.

In early 2011, there was exceptionally high demand for the Bureau’s extreme weather services when Australia experienced the

devastating effects of unprecedented floods in Queensland and Victoria, tropical cyclones in the Northern Territory, Queensland and Western Australia and severe bushfires in Western Australia. Services were delivered only by virtue of dedicated individuals working well beyond what could be regarded as reasonable or even safe hours, by deployment of a range of resources such as recently retired staff and temporary contractors who had been engaged for the roll-out of the Next Generation Forecasting and Warning Services project and through the patience and understanding of its customers. This does not constitute a sustainable “surge capacity”. For the 2011-12 summer season, the Bureau has taken what measures it can to prepare for a repeat of such a scenario. These arrangements highlight that the Bureau has limited further reserves on which to draw. A more sustainable long term position requires some additional bolstering of capacity.

Analysis of workforce trends in the Bureau, abstracting away from the impact of new functions which have been added from time to time, shows a long term decline in the numbers of staff in most categories and specifically in the numbers of meteorologists working in the seven regional forecasting centres. These are the key individuals who deliver public weather services including severe weather services.

The senior weather forecasters in particular have trusted working relationships with their counterparts in the State emergency services, built up over many years. Their contextual knowledge is seen as critical to their ability to contribute to effective decision-making, such as whether to evacuate a hospital or where to deploy fire fighting crews.

Perhaps surprisingly, while the organisation has a total of 1490 ongoing and 284 non-ongoing staff who undertake observations, research, analysis and essential support functions, there are fewer than a hundred frontline meteorologists who directly provide public and extreme weather forecasts. Given that weather forecasting is a 24/7 service so that five people on shiftwork are required to cover a single position, this appears to be very lean. In addition 42 staff are dedicated to flood warning and forecasting across Australia, generally without the scope to undertake night shifts (due to limited staffing numbers).

The Bureau’s operations are largely funded from government appropriation, although an increasing proportion of revenues is sourced from cost-recovered and commercial services. The Bureau’s

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operating revenue for 2010-11 was $264 million, plus a capital budget of $55 million.

Given that staff costs represent just over half the Bureau’s expenditure it is not surprising that a gradual reduction in forecasting staff numbers has been one of the principal methods by which the Bureau has achieved the budget savings necessary to deliver the efficiency dividend being applied across the Australian Public Service. Some agencies may have been able to meet the requirements of the efficiency dividend by eliminating low value outputs. This does not appear to have been a feasible option for the Bureau in the face of escalating demand for its services across the board. Similarly, capital investments in new systems have enabled the Bureau to deliver greater quantity and quality of output rather than delivering operating efficiencies to reduce workforce requirements. However international evidence suggests there are some other avenues for achieving operating efficiencies, for example through greater automation and outsourcing of observations and by limiting manual intervention in the preparation of forecasts.

As a corollary of the decline in numbers over time, the Bureau’s workforce has been aging. Graduate entry has not kept pace with separation by retirement and there has been limited midcareer recruitment. The Bureau has for some time acknowledged the risk of loss of skills and experience through its deteriorating workforce profile. As described in its Annual Report, the Bureau is taking steps to address this through boosting the graduate program and developing a formal workforce strategy. However this remains work in progress. The Review has highlighted that it is essential that the Bureau accelerates the development and implementation of a long term workforce plan. Critically, this should include a meaningful succession plan for all frontline weather services positions, taking into account any new positions that may be created if the options presented in this Review are implemented.

Processes

The Bureau produces a high volume of products day in, day out: in 2010-2011, as discussed above, it issued over 30,000 warnings, as well as nearly 140,000 forecasts, while its website received 33 billion hits. Timeliness, continuity of service and consistent quality all depend on efficient, reliable and repeatable processes.

At its core, however, the Bureau is a scientific organisation which has a culture of

experimentation to continually improve quality. The preferred response to budget constraint is not to cut outputs or restrict innovation, but rather to find ways of “making do”. In the regional centres, individual weather forecasters have a fair amount of discretion about how they do their work and in particular what value-added services they develop for local customers such as state agencies. They have an enthusiasm for the art of the possible and a pride in their technical competence which leads them to stretch the envelope rather than deny a customer request.

Through workshops conducted in the course of this Review to analyse the Bureau’s processes, it became evident that the Bureau does not have the process orientation that might be expected of a service provider that operates at industrial scale. This is not to say no processes are in place, but they are not documented as such. As a consequence, it is possible that the Bureau is carrying an inappropriate level of risk with respect to core management disciplines such as change control and business continuity. Weaknesses in these areas were also evident in this Review’s assessment of the Bureau’s technology, discussed below.

The consultants engaged to examine the Bureau’s processes for this Review have made a set of recommendations which would strengthen the governance of the Bureau by taking an end-to-end systems view of how it operates. As well as reducing risk, it is also likely that a focus on process would sharpen accountabilities, eliminate unplanned duplication of effort and cast a light on any unauthorised activities that could be ceased. This might yield savings which could be redirected to reinforce priority services. These recommendations are referenced in the Review options presented in Table 1 below.

Previous reviews also made a number of recommendations regarding management processes in the Bureau. These are in the process of being implemented. To his credit, the current Director has also seen the need to reinforce the central corporate functions in the Bureau so that its human, physical and financial resources are managed more strategically with stronger governance of key decisions and a view to improving the control of risks such as occupational health and safety.

All up, developing and implementing stronger governance arrangements, whether for workforce planning, capital investment or process change, represents a significant call on the time and the judgement of the Bureau’s senior executive team.

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The options for process improvement identified by this Review are geared towards resilience in service delivery in the subject areas of this Review. To be effective, they will require some shifts in culture that may not be immediately embraced by all Bureau staff. This too will require committed leadership from the senior executive team. By extension, it would be prudent to limit the number of new initiatives that are on foot at any one time.

The Bureau has an ambitious strategic plan which anticipates both broader scope and greater integration to achieve its overarching vision of becoming the nation’s primary provider of environmental intelligence. It may be necessary to reframe this vision to focus on the sustainability of its current suite of services in the short term, before significant additional roles and responsibilities are embraced. The government may also wish to strengthen the Bureau’s mandate with respect to the critical services that are the subject of this Review and to require that these are given first priority.

Technology

Frontline people provide the Bureau’s peak services both in response to extreme weather events and communicating seasonal forecasts. The customers of these peak services rely on the situational knowledge, judgment and communication skills of these individuals to interpret and deliver timely and relevant information, perhaps by digital means, but often in person. For this reason, delivery of the final product is labour intensive and this represents a key constraint on capacity as discussed above.

However this is only the end point of a process. Behind this is a capital intensive supply chain from gathering of observations through model runs (of literally billions of pieces of data everyday) to formatting of forecasts and other information products. Technology is therefore also a constraint on capacity.

The Bureau maintains an extensive range of assets for manual and automated observation of meteorological, hydrological, solar, oceanographic and space weather parameters. These data, along with feeds from external sources such as satellites, are relayed through a dedicated communications network to one of Australia’s most powerful supercomputers which provides mass data storage and the computing capacity to run both operational and research software programs. Specialist applications used by the forecasters bring together real-time and historic data and the output of a range of weather models. Other

applications generate text and images to represent the forecasts and warnings online or in other formats.

Together, these technology assets are valued at over $200 million. They have been amassed over the life of the Bureau so that the value of some assets which are still in service has long been written down to zero. Others could not now be replaced on a like-for-like basis based on current funding levels. The Bureau considers that these factors are driving a systematic underestimation of the value of its asset base, currently valued at approximately $500 million (including $402 million for land, buildings, property, plant, equipment and intangibles, and $90 million for inventories, cash and receivables) and the true replacement cost. Even without addressing these factors, a desktop analysis of the Bureau’s asset base against its Asset Investment and Replacement Program found some $33 million of assets still in service beyond their useful life and a cumulative deficit over five years of around $54 million between budgeted asset replacement expenditure and lifecycle requirements.

In practice, the Bureau has been implementing a number of strategies to extend the useful life of its assets and manage the gap. These strategies remain valid and there does not appear to be an imminent crisis although business continuity risk may be increasing.

Over time it may be preferable to close down rather than replace failing assets, particularly in the observation network where substitute data sources may be available. On the other hand, in order to access global observation data, the Bureau does need to reciprocate by meeting its own international obligations. Not replacing assets might also lead to degradation in service which would run counter to the needs highlighted in this Review for accurate and localised information.

This pressure on asset lifecycle funding also provides a backdrop against which any decisions to extend the Bureau’s asset base must be considered. For example, in the 2009-10 Federal Budget the Bureau received $48 million over seven years to, amongst other things, install four new radars. There will continue to be demand to fill other gaps in the radar network.

The bigger challenge, however, rests in the area of information technology. The Bureau’s current supercomputer has a five year life and is scheduled to be upgraded in 2013-14. This will be the subject of a bid for capital estimated by the Bureau to be

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in the order $38 million on a like-for-like basis, including $14 million for data storage.

Notably, to lift its capability in terms of more localised forecasts and technically more reliable weather prediction, the Bureau would need to upgrade its suite of models and operate them to finer resolution. This would potentially have significant economic benefit for users of seasonal forecasting services as well as social and economic benefit from better management of severe weather risk.

However, any steps to improve resolution or model complexity will require a step change in supercomputing capacity. The Bureau has advised that the limit of its current high performance computer will be reached in 2012-13 when Version 2 of the Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator (ACCESS) Prediction System (APS 2) goes operational. This means that no improvements will be possible during the final two years of the current system’s five year lifetime and any future improvements would require investment beyond the like-for-like scenario.

The Bureau has identified a hierarchy of options for boosting its supercomputing capacity in order to meet some of the trends in demand that have been identified in this Review as well as to mitigate business continuity risks associated with the current configuration. Any consideration of these options, which could more than double the cost relative to the base case, would need to be subject to rigorous cost benefit analysis beyond the scope of this Review.

In addition, there are considerable risks associated with procurement of such a large piece of ICT infrastructure. Every step from documenting requirements onward is a highly specialised activity and the highest standards of governance are required to avoid costly errors. It will be necessary for the Bureau to demonstrate that its ICT planning and procurement processes are sufficiently robust. Given the pace of change in ICT services, some independent expert advice might bring forward quite different and more cost effective options for accessing the required capacity.

Finally, the Review has identified a clear need for the Bureau to continue to improve its controls over distributed ICT initiatives including application development. This has been a by-product of the culture of experimentation and local autonomy. However, the result has been a proliferation of unsupported home-grown applications, potentially inefficient use of both

hardware and software resources, and an inability to estimate accurately the business process gains from new investments. To manage these risks and maximise operating efficiency, the Bureau will need to move to a new level of maturity in its day-to-day ICT governance. This issue is recognised by the Bureau’s Executive and steps are being taken to rationalise applications and put in place better ICT procedures.

Options

The assessments undertaken for this Review, covering trends in demand for the subject services and in capacity to supply these services, have pointed to an emerging mismatch. This mismatch between supply and demand creates a potential risk to the Bureau and to the community it serves as well as an opportunity for the development of additional valued services. Strategies to mitigate the risks and options for providing enhanced services have both been identified alongside options to offset the costs of new capacity through savings, enhanced efficiency or increased revenue. The full list of options is summarised in Table 1.

Some of these options can be implemented by the Bureau on its own initiative, but many would require authorisation or funding from the Australian Government or complementary action from state and local governments or other third parties, as indicated in the table.

It would be neither desirable nor feasible to implement all or even a large proportion of the options in the short term. Specific consideration should be given to the need for orderly change management processes and the benefits of careful sequencing of related actions.

In the view of the Review, priority should be given to those options which strengthen internal governance and boost frontline resources, ahead of other potential investments which would also require a high degree of executive oversight. These actions could be implemented in parallel with a government process to consider the long term direction for flood management, if that is in prospect. If the current flood management arrangements are to continue, then at a minimum some effort is required to clarify the respective roles and responsibilities of each level of government and to convey them clearly to the community.

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Recommended Priority Actions and Options Action required from:

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Recommended priority actions to mitigate risks requiring early attention

Priority Action 1: Boost the number of frontline meteorologists to build response capacity in regional forecasting centres

Priority Action 2: Boost the Bureau’s flood warning capacity by:

(a) Increasing the number of frontline hydrologists

(b) Upgrading the flood monitoring system

Priority Action 3: Formalise and standardise service levels provided to emergency services

Recommended priority actions that involve strategic choices for government

Priority Action 4: Agree clear allocation of responsibilities to state and local government for flood management, with defined boundaries on the Bureau’s role and:

(a) As a minimum:

(i) Agree national standards for operation of flood monitoring networks and vest responsibility in fewer agencies

(ii) Clarify roles and responsibilities for issuing flash flood warnings

(b) And either:

(i) Focus the Bureau’s role on data management and divest responsibility for flood monitoring infrastructure from the Bureau; or

(ii) Expand and consolidate the Bureau’s role in flood management by:

(a) Re-organising operations (including a new Flood Operations Centre)

(b) Enhancing the Bureau’s flood monitoring network

(c) Strengthening the collection and provision of flood data by third parties

(d) Improving the information base for flood warnings, including access to flood risk maps

Priority Action 5: Focus the Bureau’s evolving environmental information role on natural hazards in the first instance

Priority Action 6: Explore opportunities to re-phase investments in large scale projects and programs such as the Strategic Radar Enhancement Program, the NexGen Forecast and Warning System Products and the Improving Water Information Program

Recommended priority actions for the Bureau to support consistent service standards and build organisational resilience

Priority Action 7: Complete workforce planning project and succession plans as a matter of urgency

Priority Action 8: Firm up approval processes and funding for any departures from provision of the basic product set

Priority Action 9: Ensure the Bureau puts in place necessary planning and governance arrangements to develop its bid for capital funding to maintain its critical supercomputing capacity

Priority Action 10: Extend ICT governance arrangements to all applications and subject in-house development to rigorous approval processes

Priority Action 11: Review disaster recovery and business continuity plans

Priority Action 12: Start a project to introduce organisational process thinking with a view to standardising processes and product specifications

Priority Action 13: Focus leadership practices to re-orient culture away from customisation and

Table 1 – Recommended Priority Actions and Additional Options

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experimentation and towards reliable, efficient and consistent documented processes

Options that could provide savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau

Option 14: Increased automation and outsourcing of observations

Option 15: Explore options to limit forecaster intervention in site-specific web forecasts

Option 16: Centralise media services and establish protocols for media activity

Option 17: Foster private sector service providers who can offer tailored services or broadcast high quality presentation of general purpose weather information

Option 18: Review level of investment in research activities to free up budget and reduce pressure on computing capacity

Option 19: Review and rebalance relative investment in long term climate modelling and medium-term seasonal outlook

Option 20: Cease or reduce the Ionospheric Prediction Service or offer it as a commercial service

Option 21: Apply a consistent cost-recovery model to all services delivered to state/territory fire agencies

Option 22: Explore options to obtain revenue from advertising on the Bureau’s website

Option 23: Phase out seasonal prediction development and modelling and rely on products generated elsewhere

Option 24: Fund delivery of improved seasonal forecasting services by:

(a) Identifying potential offsets from government beneficiaries of any additional investment in seasonal forecasting services

(b) Undertaking market research to establish industry willingness to pay for enhanced seasonal forecasting services

Option 25: Lower yield options identified by the Bureau

(a) Reduce staffing at remote observing stations

(b) Close the training facility at Broadmeadows, Victoria

(c) Consolidate forecasting functions for Northern Queensland

(d) Outsource the Bureau’s library

Options to provide enhanced services where there is proven demand

Option 26: Additional frontline meteorologists and specialised centres and systems

(a) Enhanced severe weather units

(b) National extreme weather centres

(c) Integrated all-hazards decision system

(d) Enhanced observation network

Option 27: Upgrade to the Bureau’s supercomputing capacity

(a) Status quo

(b) Step change

(c) Further enhancements

Option 28: Improved seasonal forecasting capabilities

(a) Improved presentation of existing products

(b) Enhanced capability – keeping pace with international standards

Option 29: Explore use of social media to enhance data gathering from authorised and informal sources and to disseminate weather information

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Introduction

Review Context and Purpose Increasing frequency, spatial extent and severity of impact of extreme weather events have led to great demand on the Bureau for information and advice, including from state and local authorities, communities and the media. Recent events have shown how these demands can occur simultaneously across multiple states and over long periods.

These trends were highlighted during the 2010-11 summer, which saw unprecedented flood events in Queensland and Victoria, tropical cyclones (including tropical cyclone Yasi), and severe bushfires in Western Australia. Climate change modelling indicates that the incidence and severity of some extreme weather events may increase in the future.

On 18 July 2011, Senator the Honourable Don Farrell, Parliamentary Secretary for Sustainability and Urban Water, announced that the Australian Government had commissioned an independent review of the Bureau to assess its capacity to respond to future extreme weather events and to provide accurate and timely seasonal forecasting services. The full terms of reference are attached at Appendix A.

The Bureau The Bureau is Australia’s national weather, climate and water information agency responsible for achieving the outcome of “Informed safety, security, and economic decisions by government, industry, and the community through the provision of information, forecasts, services and research relating to weather, climate and water.”

1

Its expertise and services assist Australians in dealing with the realities of their natural environment, including drought, floods, fires, storms, tsunami and tropical cyclones.

2 Through

regular forecasts, warnings, monitoring and advice, the Bureau provides one of the most widely used services of government.

The Bureau operates under the authority of the Meteorology Act 1955 (Cth) and the Water Act 2007 (Cth). It is an Executive Agency within the Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities portfolio. The Director of Meteorology is a statutory officer appointed by the Minister. The Bureau’s staff are engaged under the Public Service Act 1999 (Cth).

The Bureau has obligations under three international conventions as well as bi-lateral

treaties or memoranda of understanding with 13 organisations in 11 countries to which Australia is a signatory. It is Australia’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Service for the purposes of the Convention of the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) and is Australia’s designated Meteorological Authority for the purposes of the Convention on International Aviation. The Bureau also has obligations under the International Convention for Safety of Life at Sea and some responsibilities under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change. It also contributes to Australia’s national Antarctic program and other national responsibilities by conducting continuous meteorological operations in Antarctica.

The Bureau receives government funding to cover the bulk of its activities. These base funds are supplemented by government equity injections, and by revenue from independent sources for cost recoverable and commercial services as well as contributions to collaborative projects.

In addition to its Head Office in Melbourne, the Bureau has seven regional offices which are responsible for most of the operational and service activities in the state or territory concerned. Each regional office includes a Regional Forecasting Centre and a Flood Warning Centre, and the Perth, Darwin and Brisbane offices also operate Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres when required. The Darwin Office also serves as a Volcanic Ash Advisory Centre for aviation and a WMO Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre. The National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre (NMOC) carries out operational and services functions similar to those of a region but with a national area of responsibility. The NMOC is also a WMO Regional Specialised Meteorological Centre for environmental emergency response.

The Bureau maintains a network of field offices and other installations across the Australian continent, on neighbouring islands and in Antarctica, including national networks of some 200 paid cooperative observers and approximately 6,500 voluntary rainfall observers.

3 These sites

provide manual and automated observations of meteorological, hydrological, solar, oceanographic and space weather parameters.

Measurement devices include automatic weather stations (AWS), weather radars, sea-level monitoring stations, and tsunami detection buoys. The Bureau also sources observations from sensors mounted on weather balloons, commercial aircraft and ships, and satellites. For its flood forecasting and warning services, the

Introduction

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Bureau’s own hydrological observation network is complemented by data from more than 4,000 sites, collected by more than 240 water sector organisations.

The Bureau’s telecommunications systems provide an integrated network of landline, satellite and radio systems for the flow of information between its offices, other organisations and its customers. The Bureau’s information and communication technology system is connected to a larger worldwide network to support collaboration with overseas meteorological agencies under the WMO’s global charter. Its computing and mass data storage needs are supplied by one of Australia’s most powerful supercomputers, located in its Head Office in Melbourne.

4

Approach taken by the Review The Review has addressed the Bureau’s capacity to deliver services by looking from the outside in – analysing customers, outputs, processes, inputs and suppliers. It considered the trends and drivers shaping the expectations of the Bureau’s customers and assessed the robustness of the Bureau’s systems and processes. This enabled both capacity constraints and delivery risks to be identified as well opportunities to improve performance by mitigating these constraints and risks over the medium term.

This Review has been a forward looking exercise, intended to provide a strategic assessment of the Bureau’s capacity to deliver essential services over the medium to long term. It was conducted in consultation with a Steering Committee comprising Australian Government representatives.

The Review drew on extensive evidence to develop its findings, including:

face-to-face meetings with representatives from the Australian Government, State Government, Local Government, emergency services, aviation, agricultural, media and insurance sectors;

submissions from key stakeholders who were invited to respond to a questionnaire relating to the Bureau’s services and against the Review’s terms of reference. Approximately 180 submissions were received from a wide cross-section of organisations. The list of those who made a submission is provided at Appendix B and the questionnaire is at Appendix C;

a wide range of information provided by the Bureau, including internal documents, data from the Bureau’s management information

systems and reports from international agencies and research organisations;

a process review project commissioned by the Bureau to assess the delivery of the Bureau’s services through its internal supply chain (recommendations from this project are attached at Appendix D);

analysis of the findings from previous reviews of the Bureau and other relevant recent reviews such as the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry;

a peer review of the Review’s draft findings by international meteorological experts (see Appendix E); and

input from the Bureau’s staff and Executive, including via formal proposals.

Structure of the report Chapter One of this report describes the Bureau’s customers and the products and services they receive and discusses the trends and drivers shaping future demand.

Chapter Two considers the Bureau’s current capacity and capability in relation to its current product and service responsibilities.

Chapter Three examines the risks to the Bureau’s service delivery arising from capacity constraints and considers opportunities for improvement.

Chapter Four outlines a range of options for addressing these risks.

A summary of the proposed options is provided after the Executive Overview (see Table 1). The table also identifies where implementation would require action by parties other than the Bureau.

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Chapter 1 Customers, Services and Trends in Demand

1.1 Extreme weather and flood warning services

1.1.1 Overview

Types of extreme events Australia is exposed to many types of extreme weather events including floods, fires, cyclones, tsunami, severe thunderstorms, hail storms, heatwaves and storm surges. Some other natural and man-made disasters are also propagated by weather, such as volcanic ash and radioactive and chemical clouds. Extended periods of extremes of climate, such as drought, can also have chronic effects.

The impact of these events can run into hundreds of lives lost, and long lasting disruption to communities and businesses. One estimate put the annual economic cost of extreme weather events in the order of $1 billion.

5

Permanent defences such as levee banks or appropriate building standards can reduce these consequences where the risk is understood. With adequate warning, emergency action can also be taken to reduce the impact of a specific event and so the Bureau’s services are pivotal to an effective response.

Products and services provided During and in anticipation of extreme weather events, the Bureau delivers a range of information products in addition to its day-to-day services. These products include regular updates and assessments, localised forecasts (over periods ranging from 6 to 48 hours), and immediate information (‘nowcasting’), relating to the progress of extreme events.

In 2010-11, the Bureau issued over 30,000 warnings, including 1800 severe weather

warnings) and nearly 140,000 forecasts. Diagram 2 shows the number of warnings and forecasts issued in recent years.

Diagram 2 - Trend in number of warnings and forecasts

Customers During extreme weather events, general public interest in the Bureau’s services increases dramatically, as illustrated by the doubling of visits to the Bureau’s website during the 2011 Queensland floods.

6

In addition to its public weather services, the Bureau provides specialist services on a cost-recovery and commercial basis to a number of sectors including the aviation, defence, marine, primary production and utility sectors. In particular, the funding arrangements for services to aviation and defence changed on 1 January 2010. These services are now fully cost-recovered and are outside the scope of this report.

Agencies charged with the emergency response to extreme weather events are particularly reliant on the Bureau’s products,

7 and their needs are a

major focus of this Review.

Delivery channels Extreme weather information is delivered to the general public through the Bureau’s website, through media services including the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) in its role as emergency services broadcaster, and indirectly through the third party communication channels such as mobile phone alerts and emergency services’ own websites.

Warnings are delivered by the Bureau to state and territory agencies for consideration, interpretation and dissemination within their jurisdictions. The channels used and the arrangements followed

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Visits to the Bureau’s website doubled during the 2011 Queensland floods.

There has been a significant increase in the number of forecasts and warnings issued by the Bureau in the past ten years.

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differ between jurisdictions and for each type of extreme weather event product or service.

The following sections provide a brief description of the Bureau’s products and services for floods, fires, cyclones, tsunami, severe thunderstorms and heatwaves.

1.1.2 Floods A flood is defined by the Bureau as the inundation of normally dry land by water.

Products and services provided The Bureau is responsible for “the issue of warnings…including weather conditions likely to give rise to floods.”

8 In practice, the responsibility

for flood preparation, flood monitoring, developing forecasts and warnings and the dissemination of these warnings is shared between all levels of government (see Diagram 3).

A simple summary of the main flood products and services provided by the Bureau is set out in Table 2. These products are provided for 300 designated sites in 126 designated river basins with identified flood risks. Outside these areas more generalised services are provided based on severe weather warnings (see Section 1.1.3).

Customers Customers for flood warning services include the agriculture and transport sectors, other industry operating in flood-prone areas, state and local governments, emergency services and the general public – in particular those living in or traversing flood-prone areas. The Insurance Council reported that flood damage in an average year costs $400 to

450 million.9

Delivery channels The Bureau prepares and disseminates severe weather warnings, flood watches and flood warnings both directly to the public via its website and other media, as well as through state emergency service agencies who provide additional interpretation and manage the response to events. The means by which the Bureau communicates with state emergencies services varies, depending on the location and nature of the flood event, local arrangements for emergency management and their relationship with the Bureau’s regional office.

For example, during the 2011 Queensland Floods, the Bureau provided a range of forecasts and warnings that were typically updated two to four times a day. During the more significant individual events, multiple warnings were updated up to eight times a day via a number of channels such as media interviews (radio, print and television), fax, email, telephone, and the public and registered user web pages. Additionally, specific information was provided to emergency services and other agencies via telephone briefings, conducted on average twice per day. At times, up to three Bureau staff were on site at the State Disaster Coordination Centre to assist with the interpretation of presented data.

During the 2011 Queensland floods, the Bureau’s Brisbane Regional Office experienced an intense increase in its workload.

The Bureau’s limited ‘surge capacity’ during such events is considered further in Chapter 2.

Responsibility for flood preparation, flood monitoring, developing forecasts and warnings and the dissemination of these warnings is shared between all levels of government.

Diagram 3 - Flood warning process

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Source of information The Bureau’s flood warning services depend on a combination of:

the outputs of its weather forecasting function (precipitation); and

measurements from a network of real-time rainfall gauges and river height gauges.

Most of these systems are owned and maintained in shared arrangements between the Bureau, local councils, catchment authorities and state and territory agencies. The Bureau has a particular focus on rainfall stations, with most of the river level monitoring stations being the responsibility of state, territory and local agencies.

1.1.3 Severe weather (including severe thunderstorms) The Bureau provides warning services for severe thunderstorms and more generalised severe weather.

A severe thunderstorm is defined by the Bureau as one which produces one or more of the following: hail with a diameter of 2 cm or more; wind gusts of 90km/h or greater; or flash floods.

Severe thunderstorms are localised events, usually affecting smaller areas and fewer people than tropical cyclones and floods, but nonetheless their combined impact is significant. These storms, which are more common than any other natural hazard, can occur anywhere in Australia.

Examples of severe weather include land gales, squalls, flash flooding and dangerous surf or tides.

Products and services provided The Bureau issues a Severe Thunderstorm Warning when a severe thunderstorm is detected and expected to affect populated areas. These warnings typically include information on expected phenomena (large hail, dangerous winds etc), the area of the threat, and time of issue (see Table 3).

Severe thunderstorm and severe weather warnings are provided from the Bureau's regional forecasting centres. Forecasters use computer model predictions, together with data from meteorological satellites, radar displays, lightning detection networks, ground-based observations and reports from the Australian network of some 3000 volunteer storm spotters to prepare the warnings. Radar displays are particularly helpful to thunderstorm forecasters as they show where and how heavily rain is falling.

Customers Customers for severe weather services are the general public, as well as industry operating in affected areas, the transport and emergency services organisations. As an illustration of the potential impact of severe weather events, the Sydney Hailstorm which occurred on 14 April 1999 caused an estimated $2.3 billion of damage

10 from

rain and hailstones measured to be up to 9cm in diameter.

11

Products Purpose Users Delivery Channels

Flood Alert, Watch or Advice

To warn of possible flooding (if flood producing rain is expected to happen in the near future).

General Public, industry, local government, emergency services

Local response organisations; Bureau offices; website; radio; telephone recorded information services

Generalised Flood Warning

To warn that flooding is occurring or is expected to occur in a particular region. (For catchments where no specialised warning equipment has been installed).

as above as above

Warnings of 'Minor', 'Moderate' or 'Major' flooding

Where the Bureau has installed specialised warning systems the warning will identify the river valley, the locations expected to be flooded, the likely severity of the flooding and when it is likely to occur.

as above as above

Predictions of expected river height

To provide specific information to flood management authorities.

Flood management authorities

Bureau offices; website


Severe Thunderstorm Warning

Warning for communities about dangerous or damaging conditions

General public and emergency services

Bureau website; telephone weather; fax, electronic and print media

Severe Weather Warning as above as above as above

Table 3 - Severe weather products

Table 2 - Flood products

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Delivery channels Warnings are immediately transmitted to radio and television stations, to authorities such as the police and emergency services, and through the Bureau's public access systems which include recorded telephone services, fax and internet.

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For major centres on the east coast, radar observations, which display the pathway of major storms, provide graphical warnings that are available on the internet.

Source of information In delivering severe weather services, forecasters rely on a range of data sources. Model conditions provide an early indication of the risk of severe weather, weather balloons can provide information on atmospheric instability which is a precursor to thunderstorms, and satellites can detect extreme convection before a thunderstorm has formed. Probably the most important data source is radar, which regularly and precisely tracks the precipitation arising from thunderstorms and can be used to determine the track the storm is most likely to take (based on its recent behaviour).

1.1.4 Tropical cyclones A tropical cyclone is a large low pressure weather system which develops over warm waters. Air flows within the system in a circular pattern. To be defined as a tropical cyclone, the system must have maximum average wind speed of 63 kilometres per hour or greater, and this maximum average wind speed must occur in more than half of the circular centre of the cyclone. The maximum average wind speed must continue for at least six

hours.

Damage during tropical cyclones can arise from strong winds, torrential rain and storm surges (in coastal areas).

Products and services provided People living in cyclone-prone areas are generally familiar with the categories used for classifying the size and impacts of cyclones (see Table 4).

The tropical cyclone season in Australia runs from 1 November to 30 April.

13 Each season, the Bureau

provides a tropical cyclone seasonal outlook (issued at the beginning of the season) and a tropical cyclone outlook (issued daily throughout the tropical cyclone season). A summary of the Bureau’s tropical cyclone products is set out in Table 5.

Table 4 - Classification of tropical cyclones

Category Strongest gust (km/h) Typical effects

1 Less than 125km/h

‘Gales’

Minimal household damage. Damage to some crops, trees and caravans. Boats may drag moorings.

2 125 - 164km/h

‘Destructive winds’

Minor house damage. Significant damage to signs, trees and caravans. Heavy damage to some crops. Risk of power failure. Small boats may break moorings.

3 165 - 224km/h

‘Very destructive winds’

Some roof and structural damage. Some caravans destroyed. Power failure likely.

4 225- 279km/h

‘Very destructive winds’

Significant roofing and structural damage. Many caravans destroyed and blown away. Dangerous airborne debris. Widespread power failures.

5 More than 280km/h

‘Extremely destructive winds’

Extremely dangerous with widespread destruction.

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The Bureau can activate Tropical Cyclone warning Centres (TCWCs) in three locations: Brisbane, Darwin and Perth. Each centre is responsible for an allocated geographical area and for any cyclones making landfall within the respective regions (see Diagram 4).

Diagram 4 - Division of regions between Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres

The TCWCs are virtual centres, staffed by severe weather meteorologists; however, these specialist staff numbers are insufficient to cover a full 24 hour roster. Therefore, other off-duty regional

forecasting centre staff are brought in on overtime to fill gaps in the roster.

Customers Customers for tropical cyclone services include coastal communities, federal, state and local governments, emergency services organisations, general aviation, business operators, the resource sector, shipping and transport. In Western Australia, specialised services are delivered to the offshore oil and gas industry on a commercial basis.

Tropical cyclone Yasi was estimated to have caused $2 billion in losses from devastated structures and crops, and an additional $1 billion in lost tourism.

14

Diagram 5 shows the actual path that tropical cyclone Yasi followed.

Delivery channels When tropical cyclones are detected, the Bureau activates the responsible TCWC which serves as a focal point for the monitoring of the cyclone, and for providing information to emergency services

Table 5 - Tropical cyclone products


Tropical cyclone seasonal outlook

To provide information on the likelihood or risk of cyclones forming in a particular warning area.

Emergency organisations, infrastructure managers, businesses operating in the area, and general users

Website; fax; electronic and print media

Tropical cyclone outlook

Advanced notice of possible cyclone activity. as above as above

Tropical cyclone information bulletin

Provides information on existing cyclones that do not pose a short term threat to coastal communities.

as above as above

Tropical cyclone advice (watch/warning)

To alert coastal communities to a potential cyclone threat so that they can get ready to implement disaster preparedness measures if there is an increased threat of gale force winds or stronger.

Emergency organisations, infrastructure managers, businesses, and coastal communities

Website; fax; telephone weather; electronic and print media

Tropical cyclone forecast track map

Complements warnings and provides users with a graphical presentation of the likely threat zones of a cyclone.

as above Website; fax

Tropical cyclone technical bulletin and summary

Detailed technical information on the cyclone’s current status, and future development. Designed to be both human-readable and easily parsed by computer software.

as above as above

Storm tide advices for emergency service authorities

Details on expected storm tide levels associated with cyclones.

Emergency services Direct

Tropical cyclone advisory for aviation

Advice to the aviation sector on the location and intensity of cyclones.

Airlines Direct

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and the community. The TCWC maintains regular telephone contact with the relevant emergency management authorities and disseminates messages via email, fax and the Computer Message Switching System to emergency services, media outlets and clients paying cost-recovery fees. The TCWC also handles any additional media interest associated with the cyclone.

When the TCWC is in the warning phase (that is the tropical cyclone is likely to cause gales on the coast or at Island Communities within the next 24 hours) a 24 hour roster is activated.

Tropical cyclone information is provided to the general public via the Bureau’s website, phone and fax services, through the media and via state and territory emergency management agencies.

Source of information Different sources of information are used at different times during a tropical cyclone’s development.

Guidance from models may provide the first signs that a tropical cyclone may be developing; this is generally confirmed using satellite imagery, which is the primary source of observational data on tropical cyclones until they come within range of one of the Bureau’s radars.

As the cyclone becomes more organised and intensifies, modelling is used to predict its forward track. A higher resolution tropical cyclone model, nested within the regional model, is used to model the cyclone’s development. Higher resolution is important to capture the complex structure of a cyclone, in particular smaller, lower intensity cyclones that may not be well captured in a coarser model.

Diagram 5 - Severe tropical cyclone Yasi, 50 hours before coastal crossing, showing the 48-hour forecast (cone) issued at the time, and the actual path that the cyclone followed

Meteorological radars are used for tracking once the cyclone moves within range. Radar can provide more precise information on the location of the eye of the storm, and also gives an indication of the level and extent of precipitation.

Automated Weather Stations (AWS) located on land and offshore provide important information on temperature, pressure and wind.

1.1.5 Tsunami A tsunami is a series of waves travelling across the ocean. These waves have extremely long wavelengths, up to hundreds of kilometres between wave crests in the deep ocean. As the tsunami approaches land and the water shallows, it slows down and at the same time grows higher. Because of this effect, a tsunami that is unnoticeable at sea may grow to be several metres or more in height near the coast.

Tsunami can be caused by earthquakes, underwater landslides, volcanic eruptions, land slumping into the ocean, meteorite impacts, or even the weather when the atmospheric pressure changes very rapidly.

15

Products and services provided The Bureau, in collaboration with Geoscience Australia, operates the Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre. This is a 24 hour a day independent tsunami warning service for Australia.

Geoscience Australia monitors the occurrence and characteristics of undersea earthquakes with the potential to generate a tsunami and, if such an earthquake is detected, advises the Bureau. Based on the earthquake’s strength and location, the Bureau then selects the most appropriate example from a large database of pre-computed tsunami threat scenarios to ascertain the likely level, location and time of arrival of a tsunami on coastal

The Bureau was able to predict the trajectory of cyclone Yasi several days before it crossed the coast; however, smaller, quicker forming cyclones are still a challenge to predict.

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Australia. From this information, the Bureau determines the threat level and issues the appropriate product, outlined in Table 6.

Customers Customers for tsunami warnings are primarily emergency services organisations, coastal communities and those living on islands, shipping operators and recreational boaters. To date, recorded incidents of tsunami affecting the Australian coastline have resulted in dangerous rips and currents rather than land inundation. However, the tragic events in Japan in early 2011 and the Indian Ocean tsunami in 2004 illustrate the scale of catastrophe that could potentially occur.

Delivery channels Bulletins, Watches and Warnings are broadcast to emergency services, relevant authorities and the media via a number of channels. State emergency services are informed via telephone and automated messaging. Following the issue of a Tsunami Watch, warnings will be issued if a tsunami is detected and confirmed by the Bureau’s network of deep ocean buoys and coastal sea-level monitoring stations. If no tsunami is detected, the potential threat advice will be cancelled to minimise the impact of false alarms on the community.

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Source of information Tsunami Watches are based on information provided by Geoscience Australia which operates an enhanced network of seismic stations nationally and has access to data from international monitoring networks. Based on this seismic information the Bureau runs a tsunami model to generate a first estimate of the tsunami size, arrival time and potential impact locations and, if required, issues a Tsunami Warning. The Bureau verifies the existence of a tsunami using information from an enhanced sea-level monitoring network.

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1.1.6 Fires Wind, temperature, humidity and rainfall all affect the risk of bushfires and their behaviour. In Australia there is a nationally agreed system to assess these elements in conjunction with the state of the available fuels to determine a measure of potential fire behaviour, the difficulty of suppressing a fire, and the potential impact on the community should a bushfire occur on a given day.

Products and services provided The Bureau issues Fire Weather Warnings when conditions are likely to be dangerous. The warning categories are based on an assessment of weather conditions and fuel loads, with different criteria used in different areas.

Warnings are generally issued within 24 hours of the potential onset of hazardous conditions. In most states and territories, fire agencies declare fire bans based on a range of criteria including forecasts provided by the Bureau.

The Bureau does not have the power to declare a Total Fire Ban. This responsibility resides with designated fire agencies in each state and territory. However, in South Australia, Northern Territory, Victoria, New South Wales and Tasmania, the Bureau does issue Total Fire Ban


No Threat Bulletin To advise that an undersea earthquake has been detected, however it has not generated a tsunami, or the tsunami poses no threat

Coastal communities; emergency services

Bureau website; telephone weather; fax; marine radio and satellite services; electronic and print media

Tsunami Watch While the tsunami has yet to be confirmed, allows peoples to plan for the potential impacts and be alert for any subsequent Warnings.

as above as above

Warning: Marine and immediate foreshore threat

Warning of potentially major flooding of foreshores and nearby land, dangerous rips, waves and strong ocean currents.

as above as above

The Joint Australian Tsunami Warning Centre is operated in collaboration with Geoscience Australia, providing a 24 hour a day service for Australia.

Table 6 - Tsunami products

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Advices to assist in publicising and distributing the message. The Bureau also incorporates Total Fire Ban Advices into its warnings if a ban is being enforced at the time of issue and includes an action statement from local fire authorities detailing areas where the ban is in effect.

The information contained in Fire Weather Warnings includes:

the office which issued the warning;

the local time, day and date that it was issued;

a description of the relevant meteorological conditions and Fire Danger Rating;

the area where weather conditions are conducive to the spread of dangerous fires; and

the time period for which the warning will be in effect.

Table 7 provides a summary of the Bureau’s fire products.

Customers Customers for fire weather and warning services are primarily the state fire and land management agencies, and communities living in fire-prone areas.

Bushfires are experienced every year in most states. Since 1859, there have been 112 bushfires classified as disasters causing 847 deaths and damages of over $2 billion.

18

Delivery channels Warnings are broadcast on radio and television and communicated directly to state emergency services agencies. Fire authorities then declare a Total Fire Ban based on a range of criteria including the Forecast Fire Danger Index (FDI) from

the Bureau.19

Fire Weather Warnings are distributed through the media, fire agencies and other key emergency service organisations. Warnings are normally issued in the afternoon for the following day so as to be available for evening television and radio news broadcasts. Warnings are renewed at regular intervals and generally at the same time major forecasts are issued. However, warnings may be issued or amended and reissued at any time if a need is identified. If there is a current Fire Weather Warning, the Bureau will mention it in state, territory and district weather forecasts for that area.

The Bureau also provides tailored services to fire management agencies. These include weather outlooks and spot forecasts for prescribed burns and active wildfires. These services include direct interaction between forecasters and fire managers, and the provision of electronic data such as model wind fields.

In Victoria and New South Wales, the Bureau provides embedded meteorologists as a cost-recovered service (in the order of $250,000 -$420,000 per annum). These meteorologists,


Routine Fire Weather Forecasts

Detailed information of the variables associated with fire weather forecasting for selected locations across the state for each day.

Emergency services Bureau website; telephone weather; fax; direct; electronic and print media

Special Spot Fire Forecasts

Enables the most efficient use of fire fighting resources during ongoing fires or prescribed burns.

as above Fax; direct

Fire Weather Outlook Assists fire authorities in their planning and management of fires.


Wind Change Charts Assists in the short term planning and management of fires by providing details of the timing, strength and positioning of wind changes.


Fire Weather Warning Warns of weather conditions conducive to extreme fire behaviour to assist in the planning and response to bushfire outbreaks.

Emergency services and land management groups; general public

Bureau website; telephone weather; fax; electronic and print media

The Bureau’s embedded meteorologists in Victoria and NSW are provided on a cost-recovery basis. Similar arrangements are proposed for Western Australia.

Table 7 - Fire Products

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based in the Victorian State Control Centre and at the Rural Fire Service Headquarters in New South Wales, liaise directly with the fire and land management agencies, providing expert advice and assisting the decision-making process. Similar arrangements are proposed for Western Australia.

Source of information In delivering fire weather services, forecasters rely on a range of data sources similar to those used for severe weather. Model conditions provide an early indication of the fire danger, weather balloons can provide information on atmospheric instability and satellites can detect dry slots in the atmosphere and cloud associated with frontal wind changes. Radars and AWS provide up-to-the-minute information on current conditions.

Bureau observers and emergency services staff can also provide direct reports to fire weather forecasters of conditions on the ground.

1.1.7 Heatwaves There is no nationally agreed definition of a heatwave. A working definition might be “a period of one or more days where the heat pattern within a region has the potential to see adverse health, social and/or economic impacts on a particular community”.

20

Products and services provided Heatwaves are also one of the simpler extreme events for the Bureau to address. The Bureau does not issue a heatwave product per se; however, the general forecasts issued will contain information about maximum and minimum temperatures that may be interpreted by state health and emergency management agencies (see Table 8).

Generally a state heatwave management plan is triggered by state health services once the Bureau makes a prediction that there will be a number of consecutive days during which the average maximum temperature is expected to be particularly high.

Customers The primary customers for heatwave information are the general public, the media and state and

territory health authorities.

Heatwaves are probably the most under-rated weather hazard in Australia, essentially because they are viewed as a 'passive' hazard in contrast to the more widely studied catastrophic hazards such as tropical cyclones and earthquakes.

21 In Victoria,

the heatwave in the lead-up to the Black Saturday bushfires of February 2009 caused an estimated 374 deaths more than the fires themselves.

22

Delivery channels Products are delivered as part of the Bureau’s standard weather forecast service through the news media, fax and telephone services, and the Bureau website. There is no specific heatwave product generated.

Source of information The primary sources of information for heatwaves are surface observations of temperature and numerical model output which provides forecast guidance.

1.1.8 Customer experience Generally, there is a high level of satisfaction and regard for the Bureau’s current level of service for extreme weather events. More than 90% of respondents to the survey conducted for this Review indicated that the Bureau’s extreme weather services met their needs in terms of quality, timeliness, frequency, accessibility and presentation (see Diagram 6). Approximately 85% rated the accuracy of this information as very high

or high.23


State Forecast To provide broad information on the weather conditions affecting the State for each day.

Media and general users

Print and online media; television; radio; website; telephone weather; fax

District Forecast Information of weather conditions, rainfall, UV, temperature and winds across the District for the next 4 days.

as above as above

Capital City and Location Forecasts

Detailed information on the weather conditions affecting the location for each day.

as above as above

The heatwave in the lead-up to the Black Saturday bushfires of 2009 caused an estimated 374 deaths – more than the fires themselves.

Table 8 - Heatwave products

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Diagram 6 - Levels of satisfaction with extreme weather products and services

Similar observations were noted in the Bureau’s summer 2010 Public User Survey. Approximately 96% of respondents were very or fairly satisfied with Bureau information, while 83% rated forecasts and warnings as always or usually accurate.

24

Meetings with emergency service agencies revealed similar sentiments. The Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia stated that the Bureau is available and responsive: “during emergencies the Bureau always delivers within the agreed timeframes and is readily available for briefings and roundtables.”

25

Likewise, the ACT State Emergency Service indicated that they were pleased with the service provided by the Bureau’s Canberra office. They stated the Bureau’s advice is critical to the decisions they make regarding storms and floods, and can trigger large-scale operations.

26

Many Queensland customers of the Bureau appreciated its recent efforts.

27 The Queensland

Department of Premier and Cabinet stated that, “the Queensland Government has found the Bureau very responsive to its needs for information about seasonal outlooks and extreme weather events and relies on this information for its preparedness, response, and recovery activities.”

28

Survey respondents indicated that the Bureau is their principal source of weather information during extreme weather events.

The other most referenced source was Weatherzone, followed by Elders and emergency service agencies. The Bureau is the primary data source for the products of all three of these providers. While 39% of stakeholders indicated they use other sources of information for extreme weather information, the majority did so because they like to draw on more than one source of information (57%), rather than because the Bureau’s information was less accurate, timely or accessible. Some stakeholders commented that they used the Bureau exclusively to avoid being confused by differing information. They relied on the Bureau to be an authoritative source of the weather information on which they based critical decisions. In this vein, only four out of 23 emergency service agencies drew on sources other than the Bureau for extreme weather information.

29

1.1.9 Customer expectations While these findings reflect positively on the Bureau and its capacity to provide extreme weather event services, the Bureau’s customers believe services could be improved. For example:

Website presentation: Users of the website would like it to be simpler and more easily navigated.

30 One submission suggested a page

be devoted to each type of extreme weather event, with events ordered by region to enable speedy access.

31

Protocols: Many respondents felt there would be benefits in the development of more formal, documented protocols for communication arrangements in emergency situations.

32

Confidences in warnings: Customers stated that it would be helpful if the Bureau published its degree of confidence in the reliability and accuracy of its warnings.

33

Clearer warnings: Some customers suggested that categorisation and terminology of warnings needs standardisation. They commented that ‘severe’ is used for a wide range of situations, and that more precise categorisation (including expansion of categories with the addition of ‘extreme’

34)

would be helpful.35

For flood events survey respondents expressed a desire for:

improved predictions for flood height and inundation levels;

36

more investment to maintain and upgrade flood monitoring infrastructure;

37

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%

Satisfaction of needs for

All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

There is a high level of satisfaction with the Bureau’s extreme weather services.

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13

more detailed, centrally located and freely available flood modelling and flood mapping data;

38

improved accuracy for flash flood prediction;39

and

greater clarity regarding roles and responsibilities for flood management across jurisdictions.

40

For fire events, customers have requirements for:

improved smoke plume modelling; 41

improved updating of pressure charts on poor fire weather days;

42 and

automation of spot forecasts.43

For tsunami, customers want:

direct notification of significant warnings;44

and

improvement in tsunami warning advice systems.

45

For thunderstorms, customers wish to see:

improved prediction and classification of thunderstorms;

46 and

radar tracking of lightning strikes.47

And, for cyclones, survey respondents asked to see real-time forecasting of storm surges.

48

Other issues presented included:

a need for a simple and easy to understand heatwave warning system;

49 and

a desire for more sophisticated use of communications technology (in particular SMS) and social media to deliver information about weather events.

50

Recommendations from the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry’s Interim Report also point to greater demands on the Bureau, including:

more technical assistance, advice and investigation in relation to dam operations, river height monitoring, flood information, science and technology;

closer working relationships with all councils;

expanded river height and rainfall networks (including observers and gauges); and

broader dissemination of flood warnings to individual councils together with more localised information.

51

The report Protecting human health and safety during severe and extreme heat events: A national framework argues that demographic shifts and the changing climate are likely to increase the impacts of heat events. This report, prepared by PricewaterhouseCoopers Australia to provide advice to government on the effectiveness of

heatwave response systems, recommends the establishment of a national framework for severe and extreme heat events. It identifies the need to build “...a common understanding of heat event risks and their future management” and proposes the Bureau “assume responsibility for developing a heat event warning system and collaborate with the states and territories in implementing this system.”

52

1.1.10 Future trends and drivers This Review has found that customer demands have increased substantially in recent years, and are set to increase even further in the future due to a number of factors.

Technology improvements Improvements in technology have allowed for the delivery of more outputs and services, increasing their value to end users and their use for a range of purposes. The Bureau is able to provide information much faster with better resolution and accuracy.

While technology has boosted the Bureau’s capacity to provide information online, the surge in digital media has also led to increased general public expectations of what can be delivered.

Customer demand has increased substantially in recent years and will continue to do so in the future due to a number of factors including:

• improvements in technology and the desire for immediate access to reliable information;

• increased incidence and severity of extreme weather events due to development and climate change;

• heightened state and local government risk awareness; and

• the advent of the 24 hour news cycle.

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14

Increased incidence and severity of impact of extreme events due to development There is a perception that the frequency and impact of extreme weather events is increasing. One cause is continuing development and urbanisation in relatively high risk areas, such as on floodplains. The increasing location of people and insured assets in areas of Australia at risk of extreme weather events is a major cause of rising costs of insured losses.

53 This is driving demand for

services to assist in planning and mitigation activities as well as emergency response.

54

Climate change Of the survey respondents, almost 60% indicated that climate change was a key driver that could change their needs in the future. Climate change modelling indicates that globally the incidence and severity of extreme weather events can be expected to continue to rise, as has been the trend in recent decades.

55 Climate change research

points to:

modest changes in average values of climatic parameters (such as temperature and rainfall) that can lead to “disproportionately large changes in the frequency and intensity of extreme events”

56 such as cyclones, storms

and floods;57

increased high temperature extremes together with a decrease in the number of low temperature extremes, as seen over the last decade;

58

increased “risk of heatwaves and associated deaths, as well as extreme bush fire weather in South Eastern and South Western Australia”

59 and heavy rainfall events;

60

likely changes in the seasonality and intensity of large bushfires in southeast Australia (with climate change a possible contributing factor);

61

sea-level rises of 20 cm by 2050, feasible at current projections, which “would more than double the risk of coastal flooding”;

62

increased frequency and severity of coastal inundation events due to the combined effect of sea-level rise and more frequent and severe storm surges

63 and high sea-level event

occurrences;64

and

increased intensity of tropical cyclones.65

State and Local Government risk awareness Recent experiences of extreme weather events has led state, territory and local governments to become increasingly more risk aware, investing

heavily to improve their management of extreme weather events.

Following the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, the Queensland Government announced an additional $76 million over 5 years to improve Queensland’s disaster response and flood infrastructure management.

66

As part of its response to the 2011 floods, the Victorian government also announced that $40 million would be made available to fund “flood recovery community infrastructure projects.”

67

The Australian Government has also provided support through a range of measures. Financial support was provided through the joint Australian and State government Natural Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements to affected local councils. Support was also made available to individuals through the Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment and the Disaster Income Recovery Subsidy (approximately $465 million and $61 million respectively, as of 14 October 2011).

68

In response to the Victorian bushfires in 2009, the Australian and Victorian Governments jointly released Rebuilding Together: A Statewide Plan for Reconstruction and Recovery, which provided $193 million for rebuilding and recovery. This was aimed at funding projects to replace major community facilities and to support economic and environmental recovery in affected communities.

69

Such initiatives can have unintended consequences for the Bureau. For example, under the Natural Disaster Mitigation Program, the Australian Government provided $100,000 towards the upgrade of the Wimmera Flood Warning System.

70 This included conversion of the

data collection network to radio telemetry, installation and upgrade of stream and rain gauges and radio repeaters, development of a flood telephone alerting service, and a community flood education and awareness campaign. However, this funding did not account for the technical support required from the Bureau, including the

Initiatives led by other agencies can have unintended consequences for the Bureau – as their funding may not account for the technical support required from the Bureau.

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15

development of models for the new basins captured under the program.

Similarly, the Victorian Government’s response to the 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission’s recommendations resulted in further unfunded work for the Bureau (see Box 1).

By way of comparison, in the United Kingdom, the Trading Fund status of the MetOffice provides a business model which assists in minimising growth in unfunded work. Any change in service specification requires a corresponding contract adjustment, and associated price change if necessary.

71

Media and Communications The Bureau’s regional office staff reported increasing demands from the media during extreme weather events including a desire for more localised, region-specific information.

The increase in demand from the Australian Broadcasting Corporation (ABC) in recent years is due to the increase in the frequency and impact of extreme weather events, the Corporation’s increasingly recognised role as the preeminent broadcaster of public information during such events and audiences’ increased desire for rolling news coverage of such events.

72 Other news

providers also provide continuous coverage during emergency events.

The ABC contends that continuous news services enable agencies like the Bureau to deliver a variety of messages to a broader number of people, more efficiently and effectively.

73 The increase in

demand for the ABC’s emergency broadcasting services and the Bureau’s services in these times also reinforces the value placed by the community on information from the Bureau during extreme weather events.

However, the Bureau can only dedicate more time to servicing the media, particularly television interviews, by diverting resources from other functions. Bureau staff noted these pressures were acute during the 2011 Queensland Floods, explaining that while they did reject some media requests (for example those of international broadcasters), they felt a sense of obligation to do

The business model used by the United Kingdom’s MetOffice ensures that any change in service specification requires a corresponding contract adjustment, and associated price change if necessary.

Box 1 - 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission case study

The 2009 Victorian Bushfires Royal Commission, which delivered its recommendations in July 2010, had a significant impact on bushfire response and management in Victoria. Importantly, the recommendations were seen to set a national benchmark and, as a result, the key recommendations were adopted by all state and territory governments and fire agencies.

A number of these responses resulted in additional work for the Bureau both through increased demand and enhanced products, requiring modifications to ICT systems, changes to work practices and heightened management attention.

The addition of a catastrophic fire danger rating (later termed Code Red in Victoria) required changes to ICT systems, products and work practices; additionally, climatologies needed to be developed to provide an understanding of the past frequency of such events and to project forward the likely number of Code Red or Catastrophic days. Changes to work practices required additional training for frontline staff and the rewriting of standard operating procedures.

In those regions operating the Graphical Forecast Editor (GFE) significant re-engineering work was required to alter the generation of warning products. This had an impact in each region, but also on the overall GFE project timelines, delaying a number of project milestones.

The dependence of external decisions, such as school closures, on fire danger ratings, has put the Bureau under pressure to increase the lead time for declaration of catastrophic days. To manage expectations, both from fire agencies and the broader community, close management attention has been directed to these decisions.

The recommendation for a rolling program of prescribed burning of 5% of public land per year has the potential to dramatically increase demand for spot fire forecasts from the Bureau, as the states and territories ramp up their own burning programs in line with this target.

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16

as much broadcasting as possible to maximise access to potentially lifesaving information.

74

The Bureau’s regional staff also reported that in recent years, requests for direct communication with political leaders at all levels of government through both face-to-face meetings and briefings have increased. For example, during the 2011 Queensland Floods, the Bureau provided regular briefings to the Queensland Premier and Ministers, as well as state department officials.

75

1.2 Seasonal forecasting services

1.2.1 Overview The Bureau’s Climate and Water Division provides seasonal forecasting services include seasonal and intra-seasonal outlooks for temperature and rainfall, generally three months or more ahead. They are used by a range of customers across many sectors.

1.2.2 Products and services provided

Seasonal rainfall and temperature outlooks The national seasonal outlooks are presented as maps showing the chances of exceeding the long term median over the three month outlook period for rainfall, minimum temperature and maximum temperature. The accompanying explanatory text includes commentary on outlook confidence, which is related to how consistently the Pacific and Indian Oceans affect Australian rainfall and temperatures. An expanded set of seasonal rainfall outlook maps and tables is provided on the “Water and the Land” part of the Bureau’s website, funded with the support of a consortium of primary industry research and development corporations.

The Bureau also produces complementary products such as the El Niño Southern Oscillation

(ENSO) “wrap-up” (see description in Table 9).

Seasonal streamflow forecasts Seasonal streamflow forecasts are available for 13 sites and eight major storages in the south-east Murray-Darling Basin. More forecasts are planned for other rivers and catchments in the next two years. These forecasts help users to make more informed decisions such as: water allocation, cropping strategies, water market planning, environmental watering, operating a diversified water supply scheme, restricting water supply and managing drought. Forecasts are issued monthly for total flow spanning that month and the following two months.

1.2.3 Customers Traditionally, the agricultural sector has been seen as the primary audience for these services, for the purposes of making decisions about annual production strategies. Seasonal forecasts are also prepared for the emergency management sector to plan for cyclones, flood and fire seasons,

76 and

to inform agencies at all levels of government.

Other sectors, including water management, health, energy, tourism, financial services

77 and

insurance are increasingly using these services to make planning decisions.

78 The predictions of sea


Seasonal Rainfall Outlook

General statements about the probability or risk of wetter or drier than average weather over a three-month period.

General public; government agencies and industry

Website, television, radio, email, telephone

Seasonal temperature Outlook

General statements about the probability or risk of warmer or cooler than average weather over a three month period.

as above as above

ENSO Wrap-up Provides guidance on the future state of the El Niño Southern Oscillation which is a key driver for Australia’s climate.

as above as above

POAMA-2 Experimental Products

Additional guidance on temperature and rainfall outlooks.

Expert users as above

Seasonal Streamflow Forecasts

Provides three month probabilities for streamflows in selected catchments in the south-east Murray-Darling Basin.

Water managers and key water users

as above

The agricultural sector has traditionally been the primary audience, however others, such as the emergency management sector, now use seasonal forecasts to plan for cyclone, flood and fire seasons.

Table 9 - Seasonal forecast products

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17

surface temperature derived from seasonal forecasting models are also used by the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority to manage

coral bleaching risks to the Great Barrier Reef.

1.2.4 Delivery channels Seasonal forecasting services are provided to customers predominantly via the Bureau’s website but also via television, radio, email and telephone. Seasonal outlook briefings are conducted in the states and territories with a particular focus on tropical cyclones, fire and flood. For example, in Queensland a series of pre-season briefings are offered each year (in 2011 these included 13 seminars throughout the state) to assist in preparation for the coming storm, cyclone and flood season.

79 Monthly briefings are also

conducted in Canberra for Australian Government agencies. On average, from January to November 2011, more than 20 media interviews were conducted each month on the Seasonal Climate Outlook.

1.2.5 Source of information Seasonal predictions are primarily the output of models. All models require a solid observational record, both to set up the initial conditions and also to verify past model performance.

Most operational forecast products are based on statistical forecast methods that have been used for more than two decades. Statistical forecasts are based on historical relationships between climate indicators, such as sea surface temperature and surface pressure, and seasonal variations in temperature and rainfall. Currently, these models produce an outlook for temperature and rainfall for a three month period at a resolution of approximately 100 x 100km.

The existing operational statistical seasonal forecasts for Australia appear to have reached their peak level of performance and as the climate changes may even be declining in skill (a measure of the closeness of forecasts to actual events when reviewed with hindsight).

80 Recent initiatives are

focused therefore on developing next-generation dynamic seasonal prediction models that can take account of changing climate conditions and the complex interaction of the atmosphere, land surface and ocean.

Since the late 1990s, the Bureau and CSIRO have been developing an experimental dynamical seasonal prediction model named the Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA). The Bureau intends to replace the current statistical method of prediction for rainfall and

temperature with the POAMA system in the future.

The latest version, POAMA-2, will not replace the current statistical method until mid-2012 at the earliest due to current ICT resource constraints, as the required staff are currently working on the Bureau’s migration to a new operating system. When these staff become available, the Bureau expects to undertake the research and development required to ensure the POAMA-2 system will be as reliable in operation as the current statistical approach. When implemented, POAMA-2 will provide some improvement to the accuracy of seasonal forecasts, but will not account for the impacts of climate change or be competitive with the leading models internationally. Currently, the Bureau uses POAMA-2’s experimental forecasts to provide additional guidance to its seasonal forecasters and registered users.

POAMA-2 runs on the Bureau’s current operational supercomputer and is based on the Bureau's Unified Atmospheric Model, a legacy system that was originally developed in-house by the Bureau. The Bureau has reported that it will eventually transition the POAMA system from the Unified Atmospheric Model to the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) model (see Box 2). The primary benefits of this transition are that the ACCESS model offers a significant improvement in terms of model sophistication, providing more accurate modelling of physical processes, allowing a greater number of observations to be used and accounting for changes in greenhouse gas concentrations. Also, because the ACCESS model is already used to support weather forecasting in the Bureau and is widely used internationally, maintenance and management costs will be reduced through internal synergies and through taking advantage of a broader base of external knowledge and expertise. The Bureau has advised that this transition will require further research and development to enable the POAMA system to run the ACCESS model. The transition is expected to occur in the years following POAMA’s replacement of the Bureau’s current statistical seasonal climate outlook model. Before it is transitioned to the ACCESS model, POAMA will continue to be based on the Bureau’s Unified Atmospheric Model.

Based on current resource levels, the Bureau would only be able to make incremental improvements to the quality of its seasonal forecast products and services. The Bureau has advised that by 2020, the quality of these products

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18

and services would be much inferior to those of other international meteorological agencies.

The Bureau’s seasonal streamflow forecasts are based on probabilities of water flowing into a stream or catchment based on relationships with recent climate and catchment conditions. They have been developed using scientific research conducted in partnership with CSIRO.

1.2.6 Customer experience The Bureau’s seasonal forecasting services are highly valued by its customers. Of those stakeholders surveyed, 82% indicated a very high or high value for these services.

81 This has been

further supported through stakeholder comments, for example:

“The most valued product from the Bureau is its seasonal forecast. It helps us plan for the coming season, and if necessary, bring in additional resources to handle increases in demand for our services.”

82

The Review found satisfaction with these services varies between sectors. In particular, respondents from the agriculture sector were less satisfied (see Diagram 7) than respondents for the emergency services sector (see Diagram 8) with respect to quality and timeliness of seasonal forecasts.

Diagram 7 - Levels of satisfaction with seasonal forecasts (agricultural sector)

Diagram 8 - Levels of satisfaction with seasonal forecasts (emergency services sector)

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%


All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%


All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

Box 2 - The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator

The development of the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) is a joint initiative of the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO in cooperation with the university community in Australia. ACCESS is a coupled climate and earth system simulator model which aims to provide the weather prediction capability to underpin the Bureau’s entire suite of meteorological services.

In general, ACCESS is a major improvement on previous models as it has a sophisticated data assimilation scheme which allows a greater number of observations to be used; its model physics allows for greenhouse gases and other atmospheric constituents to be taken into account; it can also be used across a range of spatial and temporal scales, allowing the one model to be used for a range of applications from extreme weather right through to climate studies. Additionally, the model is used in a number of centres internationally and is well documented and supported.

ACCESS replaced the Bureau’s previous suite of regional and global models on 17 August 2010 for short term weather prediction (including extreme weather). In the coming years, ACCESS will also replace the Bureau’s current Unified Atmospheric Model to deliver seasonal forecasting for rainfall and temperature under the POAMA system.

Further research and development to the ACCESS model will also allow CSIRO and university scientists to take a holistic view of the entire climate system — including elements such as the ocean, carbon cycle, sea-ice, and cloud chemistry. It will also enable Australia to contribute appropriate climate projections and scenarios to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

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60% of survey respondents from the agricultural sector draw on other providers for seasonal forecasting services. The willingness to seek out climate information from wherever it is available was also highlighted in stakeholder meetings.

83

The most common alternative source of information was Elders (who source their information from Weatherzone). The House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation’s report, Seasonal forecasting in Australia,

84 also discussed the use of

Japanese forecasts by Victorian farmers. Developed under the leadership of Professor Toshio Yamagata, these forecasts are based on the view that “...there is a stronger influence of the equatorial Indian Ocean on rainfall over southern Australia.”

85 By contrast, Professor Neville Nicholls,

who previously worked for the Bureau, has stated that “...there is still a much stronger influence coming from the equatorial Pacific.”

86

1.2.7 Customer expectations Many suggested improvements to the Bureau’s seasonal forecasting services were similar to suggestions for improvements to extreme weather services. The suggestions included:

more tailored, accessible and user-friendly information on the Bureau’s website;

87

more accuracy, specificity and resolution of information;

88 and

improved levels of consultation, for example “a more formal feedback mechanism with users to fine tune the service.”

89

The Bureau recently commissioned market research to determine user needs and their understanding of the current Seasonal Climate Outlook product and to test alternative presentation options.

90 The results showed that

the information was not well understood and that some users were not confident in interpreting probabilistic information. A series of simpler and more intuitive design options were developed then tested with stakeholders. The Bureau advises that it is planning to introduce a new Seasonal Outlook product, based on this research, in 2012-13.

1.2.8 Future trends and drivers The accuracy of the Bureau’s seasonal outlook in the lead-up to the 2010-11 La Niña event and resultant floods has seen a substantial increase in interest in the Bureau’s seasonal forecasting services. This interest is likely to continue into the future.

Preparedness for extreme events A main driver will be the desire for more accurate seasonal outlooks to assist in increasingly sophisticated decision-making for emergency management preparedness. This was highlighted by the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry which identified seasonal forecasts as a critical input to managing the Wivenhoe Dam.

91

Climate change Climate change is likely to be another driver of future demand for seasonal forecasting services as assumptions about climate and weather based on the historic record become less reliable.

More sophisticated business decision-making As agricultural customers develop more sophisticated agronomic techniques, they recognise the potential for more accurate seasonal outlooks to be used to underpin critical decisions (such as crop variety selection, timing of planting and harvesting and the rate of fertiliser application).

92

Similarly, as utilities introduce more sophisticated risk management techniques, they incorporate seasonal outlooks in their planning of infrastructure maintenance and planning for product demand. For example:

“For our industry (electricity generation) the focus is on an outlook that would give us an idea of how many days the maximum temperature would exceed, say, 30 degrees in summer or where the maximum temperature would fall below 18 degrees (for major capital cities).”

93

Developments in modelling Some customers are also aware of the opportunity for improvements in seasonal outlooks through the use of dynamic models

94 (to enable longer

term and more accurate prediction) and higher

More sophisticated seasonal outlooks could benefit the agricultural sector by underpinning critical decisions (such as crop variety selection, timing of planting and harvesting, and the rate of fertiliser application).

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resolution grids95

(to provide more localised forecasts). Their perception of the potential economic benefits from such improvements is another driver of demand.

1.3 General weather forecasting

1.3.1 Overview Although day-to-day weather services are outside the terms of reference for this Review, a discussion of these services is included for completeness, as they largely are based on the same data sets and systems that provide the foundation for the delivery of extreme weather event services.

The Bureau’s general weather services include forecasts from one to seven days of maximum and minimum temperatures, precipitation and wind. They also include general warnings (other than those for severe weather) such as Road Weather Alerts, Bushwalking Advices and Wind Warnings for land areas and enclosed waters. Specific services for marine and alpine areas are also included in this category.

The Bureau’s general weather forecasting services are viewed by Australians every day, either directly on the Bureau’s website or indirectly via the news media.

Growth in usage of Bureau products is likely to continue as the Bureau continues to expand its general weather forecasting capability and capacity. Increasing confidence in the reliability of Bureau forecasts (evidenced by rising skill levels over time), reinforced by ease of access, is leading customers to rely more upon weather information as an input to their daily decision-making. The corollary to this is rising expectations of quality of presentation – in keeping with general trends of increasingly sophisticated use of digital media for social and business interactions.

In 2008-09, the Australian Government made a strategic decision to fund a step change in its general weather forecasting and communication capability by investing in an expanded radar

network and in the Next Generation Forecasting and Warning System (NexGen FWS) (see Box 3).

The Bureau is upgrading its weather forecasting services across the country as part of its roll-out of the Next Generation Forecast and Warning System (NexGen FWS). It will deliver seven day forecasts across all of Australia, something that could only previously be done by the Bureau for major metropolitan cities. It enables users to find, display and zoom into weather details for their area down to the 6km grid scale by point and click.

Forecasters are able to interact with the weather grids using specially designed grid editing tools. Information stored in the weather grids is also used in the creation of text warnings and forecasts provided to the public using automated text generation software. These can be edited by Bureau forecasters if required.

In practice, forecasters need to quality control all warning products and in the process edit the majority to ensure clarity of message and inclusion of the most recent information about the event (for example, storm surge effects, thunderstorm lines and impact information not available from the automated system). In addition, editing of forecasts (rather than warnings) is determined by the complexity of the weather situation at the time. In relatively stable conditions, there would be minimal editing required; but for systems like east coast low pressure events, the majority of the forecasts for major population centres would be edited, especially in the 1-4 day period. Overall the monitoring statistics show that about 10 to 15% of text products are altered by forecasters (see Chapter 4 for an option to limit forecaster intervention in site specific web forecasts).

The NexGen FWS was first implemented in Victoria, where it provided new services to an additional 80 locations. It has since been implemented in New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory, with Western Australia, Queensland and the Northern Territory to follow by 2014.

Box 3 - Next Generation Forecast and Warning System

The Bureau’s general weather forecasting services are viewed by Australians every day, either directly on the Bureau’s website or indirectly via the news media.

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1.3.2 Products and services provided The Bureau uses observations of meteorological parameters assimilated into a numerical weather prediction model to generate analyses of the current state and forecasts out to seven days. These forecasts are interpreted and further analysed by forecasters who then generate the final forecast product, presented largely in text. The Bureau also uses complementary model and observational output from overseas meteorological services and from meteorological satellites. In some instances, warnings can be issued when the forecast exceeds a codified threshold such as for gale warnings, however, for many situations the subjective judgement of the forecaster is required in issuing the warning.

As the NexGen FWS is rolled out to all states and territories, all Australians will have access to seven day forecasts. These services were previously

limited to the major cities.

Over the past decade, the number of forecasts issued by the Bureau has increased by 18%, while the number of warnings rose by 45%, from 16,817 warnings in 2001-02 to 30,613 warnings in 2010-11.

96 Over the same period visits to the website

have risen exponentially to a peak of five billion hits in the month of January 2011 alone (see Diagram 9).

General weather forecasting services are predominantly delivered by the Bureau to customers through the internet and news media (see Table 10). Key services delivered through these arrangements include:

seven day forecasts of temperature, precipitation and wind; and

alerts for the agriculture industry for conditions such as frost.

Real-time observations from weather radars, AWS and satellites are also accessible through the Bureau’s website and other media (“nowcasting”) and have become extremely popular products.

1.3.3 Customer experience The Bureau’s general weather forecasting services are highly valued by its customers. These services are useful for a broad range of day-to-day decisions by government, the private sector and the general public. Approximately 90% of survey respondents indicated very high or high

The Next Generation Forecast and Warning System will deliver seven day forecasts across Australia – something that could previously only be done for major cities.

Diagram 9 - Bureau of Meteorology website hits per month from January 2000 to June 2011

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22

value for these services. Similarly, more than 90% of survey respondents indicated that the Bureau’s general weather forecasting information met their needs in terms of quality, timeliness, frequency, accessibility and presentation most or all of the time. These findings are consistent with results from surveys conducted by the Bureau from 2010 to 2011 (see Diagram 10).

97

Diagram 10 - Levels of satisfaction with general weather products

Despite high levels of customer satisfaction, more than half of those surveyed indicated that they draw on other sources. The most popular sources were Elders and Weatherzone. The top two reasons for doing so were because they like to draw on more than one source of information (32%) and more tailored services (24%). Fewer than 10% did so because they thought the Bureau’s information was less accurate or timely. The most frequently used private providers use Bureau data to generate more user-friendly or tailored products. For example, Weatherzone and Elders provide tailored services for the agriculture sector and Weatherzone produces high quality formatted outputs for media outlets.

1.3.4 Customer expectations Many survey respondents commented positively on the introduction of additional radars across Australia – they appreciate being able to watch an approaching storm and make informed decisions – although some were concerned that there were still gaps in radar coverage.

98 The roll-out of the

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90%

100%


All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely


Capital City and Location Forecasts

Detailed information on the weather conditions affecting the location for each day.

Website; fax; telephone weather; print and online media; radio; television

District Forecast Information of weather conditions, rainfall, temperature, UV radiation levels and winds across the District for the next 4 days.

as above

State Forecast Broad information on the weather conditions affecting the State for each day.

Media and general users.

Website, fax, television telephone weather, print and online media; radio

Warning services for general public purposes

Warning services for weather that may affect daily and recreational activities (Road Weather Alerts, Bushwalking Advices and Wind Warnings for land areas).

as above

Forecast and warning services for agriculture

Warnings of conditions affecting agricultural activities: barley growers in SA; sheep grazier alerts; frost risk forecasts and warnings; downy mildew forecasts and brown rot warnings.

Agriculture industry

Website; fax; telephone weather; print and online media; radio; television

Marine Forecast Services Narrative statements of expected weather including wind, sea and swell, visibility and significant weather for: coastal waters, Bass Strait and approaches, local waters and high seas.

Small craft operators,

shipping

Website; telephone weather; fax; marine radio and satellite services

Radar observations To provide real-time information on rainfall and, for some capitals, wind direction and speed for areas with radar coverage.

General users Website

Satellite observations To provide real-time information on cloud cover over Australia and the surrounding region.

General users As above

Real-time weather observations

To provide real-time information on temperature, wind, humidity and rainfall from automated observing systems.

General users As above

Table 10 - General weather products

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NexGen FWS is also a positive, with customers in states and territories yet to receive the new service expressing a desire for more localised forecasts.

99

Many suggestions for improvements to the Bureau’s delivery of general weather services were similar to those for other services. The suggestions include:

more tailored, accessible and user-friendly information on the Bureau’s website;

more accuracy and precision of information;

improved specificity and relevance of information to particular locations and regions;

increased service equity across regional areas in comparison to capital cities. For example, “Capital city temperature forecast accuracy is high, while Snowy Mountains forecasts are low”;

100

improvements to existing technology and programs (for example, improvement to ACCESS to enable high quality synoptic forecasts over South Eastern Australia out to 14 days

101);

more support for growth areas, particularly in the resource intensive states;

better use of third party information;

improved levels of consultation and feedback mechanisms; and

improved use of social media.

Website presentation Accessibility of information on the Bureau’s website was a recurring theme in stakeholder responses to the questionnaire. While much information of great value is available, respondents commented that it is often difficult to locate.

102

Comments included: “keep website simple to understand, with plenty of maps, diagrams, maybe include a brief text summary”,

103 “more user-

friendly formatting/summarising of data”,104

and “A more intuitive website. I realise there is a huge amount of information that is available; but I believe that it can be better organised.”

105

The Bureau’s recently completed a project to enhance presentation of its Seasonal Climate Outlook product took its lead from extensive user input. This is the first time the Bureau has used market research methodology in such depth to understand how to present information in a way that users can navigate easily and interpret correctly. It would be desirable for the specifications for any future website developments to be derived from a similar

exploration of user preferences.

1.3.5 Future trends and drivers The Review has identified a range of factors that will continue to drive customer demands for general weather forecasting services including climate change, population growth and increasing expectations of what is possible, particularly in terms of forecasting skill, and customisation of digital media. Any response to these drivers will also build capability that is relevant to the handling of extreme weather events.

1.4 Other services

1.4.1 Overview In addition to the services described above, and largely beyond the scope of this Review, the Bureau also delivers a range of other services, many of which have been added only recently. They include:

Climate Services – maintaining and publishing the climate record; monitoring of climate variability and change;

Water Information – collecting and publishing water information; conducting assessments of national water resources; publishing an annual national water account;

Many stakeholders suggested improvements to the presentation of information on the Bureau’s website to make it easier to navigate and interpret.

The Bureau’s radar views are amongst the most heavily visited pages on the Bureau’s website – people appreciate being able to watch an approaching storm.

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Space weather warnings and advice – radio propagation, geophysical and space weather services to Australian and overseas agencies;

Ocean and marine – wind, wave, tides and sea-level monitoring, sea temperature and current predictions and warnings, and national tide predictions and related information; and

Environmental information – implementation of the National Plan for Environmental Information.

A full list of functions performed by the Bureau is provided at Appendix F.

International activities International cooperation is vital to the effective operation of all National Meteorological and Hydrological Services. The global exchange of critical real-time data allows countries to monitor and predict the atmosphere and deliver the services upon which their communities depend.

The Bureau gives high priority to meteorological cooperation within the southwest Pacific and southeast Asia. As one of the leading meteorological and hydrological agencies in the region, the Bureau is an active provider of specialist training to staff from neighbouring countries.

Several AusAID-funded projects in the Pacific were either led by, or contributed to, by the Bureau. These projects include:

the Pacific Climate Change Science Program;

the Pacific Islands Climate Prediction Project;

the South Pacific Sea Level and Climate Monitoring Project;

the Pacific Adaptation Strategy Assistance Program;

the Building Solomon Islands Capacity to Respond to Tsunami Threat; and

capacity building, training and operational support to Fiji Meteorological Service.

AusAID has expressed a desire for further collaboration with the Bureau. It anticipates that as the Australian aid program grows and expands, its disaster preparedness and response interests will likely extend beyond the immediate region.

106

Aviation, defence and commercial services The Bureau also provides services to the defence force under a recently reviewed and signed Strategic Partnering Agreement. Services include the provision of forecasts, real-time meteorological observations and climatological data, meteorological training and professional advice to assist military decision-making processes. Under the agreement, the Bureau recovers the full cost of providing the service.

Specialist services The Bureau provides a broad range of specialist services on a commercial or cost-recovery basis. Cost-recovery is generally applied to services to other government departments and does not include any profit margin. Services to the private sector are charged at commercial rates.

Tailored forecast services are used for operations and strategic planning in weather-sensitive industries such as mining (both onshore and offshore), energy production, construction, tourism, agriculture, and shipping. They include:

real-time forecasting of weather and related oceanographic elements such as wind, waves, temperature and rainfall tailored to clients needs in a variety of formats;

severe weather forecasting of events such as tropical cyclones and thunderstorm squalls; and

The Bureau provides a broad range of specialist forecast services on a commercial or cost-recovery basis, including tailored services for the aviation and defence services.

The Bureau is involved in many AusAID funded projects, particularly in the southwest Pacific and southeast Asia.

AusAID anticipates that as the Australian aid program grows, so too will its involvement in disaster preparedness and response, including beyond the immediate region.

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research and development projects, aligned with Bureau strategic priorities but funded through external sources.

In 2010-11, The Bureau’s income from all cost-recovered and commercial services totalled $61 million, or 19% per cent of total operating revenue.

107

1.4.2 Environmental information The Bureau has an aspirational goal of providing an expanded ‘environmental intelligence’ role.

108 Its

Strategic Plan states that:

“Over the next five years we will transform our agency into one capable of providing a comprehensive environmental intelligence service to the Australian public. We will retain a strong focus on core meteorological services but in future we will also focus on the interactions with our ocean, land and water resources, as well as the ecosystems that depend on them.”

109

As a series of new functions have been added to the Bureau, most notably water information, this unifying theme provides a logical frame for the Bureau’s future direction over the longer term. It reflects the vision of the National Plan for Environmental Information (NPEI) under which the Bureau was tasked by the Australian Government to develop an environmental information system and standards.

110 This program is modestly funded

($18 million over four years) relative to the Bureau’s other functions. However full implementation would require a major investment of both financial and managerial resources and would indeed transform the Bureau into a very different agency from the one we see today.

1.5 The Basic Product Set According to the Bureau’s website, its "Basic Product Set" encompasses the services that are available free of charge to the community through the mass media and on its website.

111 The concept

stemmed from recommendations of the Slatyer Review in 1997, which envisaged the potential to increase revenue from services provided outside the Basic Product Set.

112

The original Basic Product Set released in 2000 was defined as a set of generic products that included:

qualitative reports of present and expected weather;

quantitative observations and forecasts of specific elements for a number of days ahead;

warnings of severe weather conditions likely to give rise to the potential for loss of life;

a variety of graphical images such as routine synoptic analysis, satellite imagery, and radar imagery; and

a range of climate-related products.

An internal policy developed in 2006 sought to clarify the arrangements and provide greater guidance on the Basic Product Set and services that should be cost-recovered.

The cost-recovery of services outside the Basic Product Set was addressed again in a review carried out in 2008. The following principles were recommended:

weather data and the climate record should be available free of charge to the public;

work undertaken on the climate record at the request of members of the public (for example, data sorting) should be cost-recovered;

work undertaken on behalf of other Commonwealth agencies (such as Defence) should be fully cost-recovered;

commercial customers should be charged for tailored services at commercial rates; and

commercial activities undertaken by the Bureau must be competitively neutral.

The Bureau has implemented a number of improvements to its cost-recovery arrangements, resulting in an increase in its revenue from services provided.

The Bureau’s vision of an expanded ‘environmental intelligence’ role provides a logical frame for its future direction over the longer term.

19% of the Bureau’s revenue comes from cost-recovered and commercial services.

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Since then, the Bureau has made a number of improvements to its cost-recovery arrangements. For example, the Bureau has implemented a web based costing and pricing tool to facilitate the consistent costing and pricing of revenue-generating activities. The model adopts a risk based pricing methodology and incorporates the requirements of competitive neutrality. The Bureau’s Chief Executive Instructions have been updated to incorporate the requirement for the Chief Financial Officer, or delegate, to approve all contracts for commercial services.

Changes to the charging of services to the aviation sector have also been made. Since January 2010 services that benefit the industry as a whole are cost-recovered under the Meteorological Service Charge and services provided to individual airlines are subject to a commercial negotiation with an associated commercial pricing regime.

Together, these measures have resulted in a 57% increase in revenue from services rendered to third parties between the 2010 and 2011 financial years (from $29.2 million to $45.8 million).

1.6 Discretion to manage workloads during peaks of demand The Bureau’s weather services operate under a hierarchy of documentation as shown in Diagram 11. Australian Government Acts and Regulations and Bureau Policies, Practices, Procedures and Plans form the high level framework under which the various policies and guides sit. Water, climate and space weather services are delivered under different arrangements.

The ‘Weather and Ocean Services Policy Handbook’ describes the underpinning policy framework supporting operational forecast and warning services provided by the Bureau. Detailed practices and procedures are maintained in National Services Guides. Procedures specific to each Regional Office are detailed in the Regional Directives and Regional Standard Operating Procedures.

The Bureau’s Weather and Oceans Services Policy Handbook provides some guidance for regional forecasting centres to organise workloads. It ranks priorities in terms of the following:

essential;

high priority (omitted only in exceptional circumstances);

medium priority (provided in majority of situations); and

lowest priority (expendable in heavy workload situations).

These priorities are intended to be flexible guidelines, acting as a framework within which Bureau officers can exercise their discretion to take account of particular circumstances. The Review has not seen much evidence of this prioritisation being strictly implemented. More often, the Bureau staff will continue to produce all products but cut back on quality steps.

The prioritisation system above has been activated during several events and also at times when staff are not available due to sick leave or having previously worked extended hours.

Diagram 11 - Hierarchy of Bureau guidelines

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In addition, several products have been withdrawn on a permanent basis to free up capacity. These include:

state and metropolitan forecasts other than 5am and 5pm are no longer issued in most regions;

regional specialised meteorological centre charts have been heavily reduced;

public phone briefings have ceased in most regions;

district forecasts have been reduced to twice daily only; and

routine media briefings have been significantly scaled back.

With the roll-out of the NexGen FWS, Standard Operating Procedures based on the above prioritisation system are included to concentrate effort on the highest level products and remove time consuming quality control of lower level products.

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Chapter 2 Capacity, Capability and Constraints

2.1 People

2.1.1 Staff profile As at 30 June 2011, the Bureau employed 1,490 ongoing and 284 non-ongoing staff, including meteorologists, hydrologists, researchers and engineers, as well as people skilled in fields such as finance, human resources, information technology and communications.

113

A significant proportion of staff (23%) work shifts to maintain a round-the-clock nationwide weather watch and to provide ongoing forecasts every day of the year. A total of five people (four forecasters and one supervisor) are required to cover a single position on 24/7 roster, allowing for approximately five days per person of training and development.

Maintaining the necessary expertise across all parts of the organisation is an ongoing challenge for the Bureau. The UK MetOffice observes similar difficulties in recruiting staff with “the rare combination of skills...exacerbated by government constraints on pay and conditions.”

114 To address

this, the Bureau has developed a Workforce Plan which is intended to strengthen the agency’s capacity to retain and recruit staff.

115

Specific workforce plans have been developed for ICT and Operational Meteorology. These plans cover strategic direction and identification of business goals, current and future workforce analysis, workforce gap analysis and workforce strategy development. The ICT Workforce Plan was developed as a result of the review of the

Australian Government’s use of ICT (the Gershon Review). Scoping work has also commenced for a Bureau-wide capability framework based on the 'job families' model and the Australian Public Service (APS) Integrated Leadership System.

The total number of staff declined from 1660 in 1990 to 1420 in 2005, followed by a rise to 1774 in 2011, as a result of the inclusion of new functions and an increase in external funding. Whereas in 1990 all Bureau staff were funded under appropriation resources, by 2011 approximately 290 (18% of all staff) were being funded from other sources.

Diagram 12 - Staffing by funding source

Diagram 12 shows how significantly the Bureau has grown since 2008 with the addition of new functions and the growth of externally funded services. The overall decline in core funded staff is partly explained by the move to cost-recovery for some of the Bureau’s services (for example the shift in funding of aviation services caused the decline in 2010). However, the application of the efficiency dividend has also led to an underlying and gradual downward trend. The decline in core funded staff is demonstrated in more detail in Diagram 13.

The staff profile has rebalanced gradually over the last ten years. The Bureau has increased the number of qualified meteorologists and ICT staff, while reducing observers and non-technical staff.

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Maintaining the necessary expertise across all parts of the organisation is an ongoing challenge for the Bureau.

A significant proportion of the Bureau’s staff work shifts to maintain a round-the-clock national weather watch.

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Diagram 13 - Core funded staff by function (the bottom layer of Diagram 12)

The Bureau employs around 500 staff who are in roles classified as meteorologists. However, many of these roles are filled by staff with professional qualifications other than meteorology and cannot perform the duties of an operational meteorologist. An operational meteorologist is defined as a person who has successfully completed the Graduate Diploma of Meteorology or equivalent, has completed a suitable period of on-the-job training in an operational forecast centre, and is judged to be proficient to competently deliver meteorological services.

There are 220 operational meteorologists in the organisation. Of these, approximately 100 are employed in roles funded through own-sourced income, such as aviation and defence support roles. The remaining 120 or so are deployed as frontline staff across the seven regional offices. This includes 28 internationally-recruited staff on two to three year contracts, for whom there is currently no budget allocated for extension.

Excluding the internationally recruited staff, the ongoing complement of around 76 operational meteorologists is lean in comparison with similar organisations. For example, the Meteorological Service of Canada, which serves a similar sized

population and resource-based economy as Australia under a comparable governance model to the Bureau, employs approximately 227 staff in similar roles across its seven regional offices. The Bureau also has 42 staff (most hydrologists) in its flood warning and forecasting role across Australia, including in the regional and head offices.

The observation program remains the most labour intensive of the Bureau’s functions. While automation has enabled significant reduction in the number of observers since 1990, the number of observation inspectors and technical maintenance officers has remained relatively constant (see Diagram 14 below).

Diagram 14 - Operational observing program staff numbers 1990 to 2011

The Bureau also has 200 paid part time weather observers (known as cooperative observers) and 6,500 voluntary rainfall observers complement the Bureau’s own observing sites across Australia.

Expertise required for extreme weather events The Bureau’s response to extreme weather events requires a range of skills. Regional offices employ meteorologists, hydrologists, observers, technicians, administrators and communicators – all of whom play a role during extreme events. Meteorologists work shifts covering a 24 hour, seven-day-a-week roster and hydrologists also move to shift operations during flood events.

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The observation program remains the most labour intensive of the Bureau’s functions.

The ongoing complement of around 90 operational meteorologists in frontline regional roles appears lean by international standards.

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In addition to the skills required for day-to-day public weather services, responding to extreme weather events calls for specialist expertise and contextual awareness. The skills required of forecasters include:

the ability to make judgments based on complex data sets and forecast models so that the likely impact of the weather event can be assessed. Bureau advice can lead to the decision to initiate large scale operations, such as evacuations, in circumstances where costs are high and lives are at risk. The gravity of these decisions places significant pressure on the accuracy of Bureau information. Some stakeholders consulted during the Review commented on the growing need for advice that will stand up to intense scrutiny in post-event enquiries. Decision-makers are being held to account for their actions to an unprecedented extent;

the ability to communicate complex forecasts and information to diverse stakeholders –stakeholders have emphasised the importance of improved interpretation of extreme weather information by the Bureau.

116 In

some jurisdictions, the role of providing warnings has been devolved to local councils who may not be confident in their expertise to interpret technical weather information. During an extreme weather event, it is vital that Bureau staff communicate in a way that can be readily understood and acted upon; and

the ability to build and maintain close working relationships with key stakeholders – the emergency management sector relies on the advice of known and trusted Bureau staff to make rapid and appropriate decisions.

117

These individuals are valued not only for their technical skills but also for their ability to apply their knowledge of local emergency services operations and how decisions are taken on the ground – a capability that is built up over time and depends on tacit as well as explicit understanding.

Observers and technicians also play an important role and must have:

the ability to respond rapidly to equipment failures in the field and to diagnose and rectify problems to ensure continuity of observations; and

the ability to provide up-to-the minute observations of weather as it occurs and to take adaptive or ad-hoc observations as requested by forecasters.

Expertise required for the Bureau’s other services supporting functions The Bureau also requires officers with certain skills for its other services. Other key areas of expertise for seasonal forecasting, general weather forecasting and the Bureau’s other services include expertise in:

technical and engineering – enabling the Bureau to maintain continuous availability of its large infrastructure base;

information technology – enabling the Bureau to operate the communications and computing infrastructure upon which the rest of the organisation is heavily dependent;

research – the specialised nature of many of the Bureau’s systems requires a team of dedicated scientists to support development and applied research. In addition the Bureau has responsibility for “the promotion of the advancement of meteorological science by means of meteorological research and investigation or otherwise” under the Meteorology Act 1955;

118 and

Senior regional staff have developed trusted relationships with their counterparts in the state emergency services and have built up extensive local knowledge over many years. Their contextual knowledge is seen as critical to contribute to effective decision-making.

The specialist skills and expertise required for extreme weather events is held with only a small number of individuals in each region.

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corporate functions – like any large organisation, the Bureau requires the services of accountants, lawyers, administrators and human resource professionals.

2.1.2 Workforce trends and drivers This Review has identified some distinctive characteristics of the Bureau’s workforce demographics and culture that will have an impact on the sustainability of its operations.

Professionalism Staff of the Bureau have excellent technical skills and a passionate commitment to serving the public.

119 Stakeholder feedback indicated high

levels of respect for the technical capability and motivation of the organisation and its staff.

120

Bureau staff place high value on continuing professional development through on-the-job experience and formal training. Concerns were expressed to the Review both by the Bureau’s Executive and by employee representatives that training hours were being eroded in order to service growing demand.

Over reliance on a small number of individuals in extreme events Some critical activities rely on the skills and discretion of a relatively small number of individuals.

121

In the regional offices only two or three staff have sufficient experience, knowledge and credibility to liaise with very senior state officials and the media during extreme weather events. There is only limited ability to supplement these resources

during long running events. This reliance on a small number of key individuals is considered one of the Bureau’s highest risks in the context of this Review.

Culture of individualism and innovation There appears to be a strong culture of individualism, both with regard to handling emergency situations and also to organising individual work practices.

122 This is both a strength

and a potential weakness. Products are delivered direct from the bench to customers without the hierarchy of checking and revision that would be the norm in other organisations. Employees are empowered to develop their own processes – to improve their outputs – but without any system to consolidate these improvements, a proliferation of differing work practices can ensue.

123 Many

employees apparently consider it appropriate to vary the process sequence on an ad-hoc basis.

124

Meteorologists are first and foremost scientists, and they are constantly seeking ways to improve the tools they use. This attitude is reflected strongly in some of the software systems used by forecasters for data analysis, a number of which have been developed by frontline staff to address their own specific needs (see Box 4).

Box 4 - 'Kenny' case study

The Bureau has a strong culture of individualism and innovation.

Only two or three staff in each regional office have sufficient experience, knowledge and credibility to liaise with very senior state officials and the media during extreme weather events.

Bureau staff have excellent technical skills and a passionate commitment to serving the public.

‘Kenny’ is a software system developed in the late 1990s by an operational forecaster in the Bureau’s South Australian Regional Office. Kenny, which due to the instability of early versions was named after the South Park character who dies in each episode, was designed to provide the forecaster with a simple, intuitive interface for the display of model data. At the time,

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The process mapping project highlighted that whilst some degree of discretion at the regional level may be appropriate, it would be desirable to achieve greater national standardisation in operating procedures.

Culture of willingness As one senior forecaster put it to the Review team “I don’t think it’s possible to say ‘no’.” This willingness to meet expressed or anticipated customer needs manifests itself in the development of customised products (outside of specific service agreements) and in the desire to improve constantly on existing products and also in the willingness of many frontline staff to work excessive hours.

For example, on request the Bureau’s regional offices provide fire agencies with services, such as the controlled burn service, even where these are not clearly specified by the standard product set or Memoranda of Understanding (MOU). Similarly, some regional offices provide services that are not available in other regions, or that do not have a firm mandate in terms of government decisions and funding. An example is the flash flood warning service provided by the NSW Regional Office to NSW emergency services.

Rather than curtail services, frontline staff have been willing to work extended hours during extreme weather events, going ‘above and beyond’ what might be regarded as reasonable or even safe, to meet customer needs. In interviews, many stakeholders commented on this.

125 While

they applauded the dedication, several interviewees expressed concern about the Bureau’s reliance on a small number of individuals and the lack of back-up staff.

126 It was also noted

that some demand was left unmet. For example the flood desk in Victoria is not always staffed overnight (contrary to the expectations of the Victorian State Emergency Services).

This matter was raised in submissions from the Commonwealth Public Sector Union (CPSU) and individual staff:

“The large amount of overtime worked in these periods can lead to staff becoming burnt out, especially when the peak periods last for several days. This then causes mounting fatigue that reduces the effectiveness of BoM to deal with situations that are concurrent or last more than a day or so.”

127

“The Bureau really relies on the goodwill of staff to work above and beyond their normal working hours just to provide the services required for community safety.”

128

The hours worked by some Bureau staff during peak periods inevitably lead to concerns about

Frontline staff have been willing to work extended hours, going ‘above and beyond’ what might be regarded as reasonable or even safe, to meet customer needs.

the supported software systems were seen by forecasting staff to have inadequate functionality. The system was developed both during shift and after hours, and its usefulness led to it being picked up by other forecasters in the office – and soon by regional forecasting centres across the country. The forecaster who developed the software received a number of awards for his efforts including the Bureau’s Australia Day Achievement Medal.

After a number of years during which it was supported by the developer on a best efforts basis, Kenny was eventually formally supported by the Bureau’s ICT Branch. However, the system runs using an unsupported programming platform which is computing resource intensive and expensive to license.

As part of the Bureau’s NextGen FWS project, a commercial off-the-shelf data display system has been procured which will facilitate the retirement of many of the Bureau’s in-house developed systems, including Kenny.

It should be noted that, even with the advent of commercial solutions, the culture of in-house software development continues to some degree. The new system will be implemented in such a way as to allow forecasters to develop their own add-on software scripts and templates, which may create some difficulties in terms of support capability and back-up arrangements between the regions.

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staff welfare and occupational health and safety risks. Fatigue could also increase the potential for errors in judgement or reduced quality in the services provided to emergency managers. The CPSU suggested restriction rosters be introduced to better manage staff work hours.

129

Aging workforce and loss of expertise The Bureau’s staff turnover rates are low when compared with most other Australian Public Service agencies. This has enabled the Bureau to retain most of the expertise in which it has invested and to build up an experienced workforce. More than half of the Bureau’s workforce (54%) is 45 years old or older.

130 The

Bureau is at risk of losing skills, experience and capacity as corporate knowledge holders retire, along with difficulties in engaging experienced specialist staff. In addition, graduate entry has not kept pace with separation by retirement. The Bureau is taking steps to address this risk through proactive workforce planning and staff management practices including exit interviews, documentation for retention of corporate knowledge, use of part-time staffing and increased succession planning.

131

Limited labour market The Bureau employs staff in a number of categories where the skills required do not have a broad market beyond the Bureau itself. This is particularly true of the Meteorologist and Observer classifications, and also to some extent for the Technical Officer (Engineering) classification.

The Bureau has a limited range of options to boost capacity to meet peaks in demand driven by extreme weather events. Generally, the Bureau’s regional offices are able to cover short duration events (1-3 days) through current operational procedures by asking staff to work overtime. However, during protracted events, such as campaign fires or the 2011 Queensland Floods, additional resources must be sourced from other states. This becomes problematic when multiple events occur across several regions – as was the case in the 2010-11 summer season (see Diagram 15).

The Bureau has limited flexibility in its workforce due to the highly technical nature of its work.

The Bureau’s regional offices are able to cope with short extreme weather events, but find it difficult to sustain service levels during protracted events, particularly if multiple events are occurring across regions as was the case in the 2010-11 summer season.

Diagram 15 - Severe weather events, January to February 2011

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The sequence of events was a real life test of the Bureau’s capacity, exceeding the most demanding scenario contemplated by the Bureau in its Extreme Weather Stress test in 2009 (discussed further in Section 3.3). The Bureau has a formal priority list for reducing other services if resources are constrained (see Section 1.6).

132 In practice this

does not free up resources to a sufficient extent to allow people to be fully redeployed.

For meteorologists, the Bureau has been able to draw on overseas resources to a limited extent. This includes the recruits brought in on contract to assist with the rollout of NexGen FWS. The Bureau also has reciprocal arrangements with the United States National Weather Service which can be called upon to provide some short term assistance. However, even highly skilled and experienced meteorologists require significant on-the-job training and familiarisation with local conditions.

Post-event review The CPSU raised concerns that the staffing of operational weather and flood forecasting areas is insufficient to allow internal post-event analysis and continuous improvement of forecasting and warning services.

133 At the same time, external

post-event reviews are becoming more time consuming and formal.

Following an extreme weather event, resource impacts can be felt long afterwards, as the Bureau is required to contribute to official investigations or inquiries that can last for months or years. Coronial enquiries, Royal Commissions and similar reviews require the Bureau to supply extensive evidence to a high standard of rigour. The Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry offers a case in point: the Bureau prepared and submitted 3,801 pages of evidence to the Inquiry and overall devoted many person-months of effort to activities related to the Inquiry.

Impacts of the efficiency dividend Bureau staff have raised concerns that the application of the Australian Government’s efficiency dividend has resulted in a decline in real terms of base funding for observing, forecast and warning functions. This has been exacerbated by a number of salary increases in excess of supplementation. Some agencies may have been able to meet the requirements of the efficiency dividend by eliminating low value outputs; however, in the face of escalating demand for its services across the board, the Bureau has not had this option. The net result has been a reduction in affordable staff numbers for observing, forecast and warning functions of around 2% per year.

2.2 Processes In parallel with an examination of the Bureau’s delivery of services from a customer perspective, the Review undertook an analysis of the Bureau’s processes. This analysis enabled a greater understanding of the Bureau’s product and service supply chain.

In its assessment of the Bureau’s processes, the Review was assisted by work commissioned by the Bureau to review the processes followed to produce extreme weather, seasonal forecasting and general weather forecasting services and products (see Box 5).

Discussion As a general observation it appears that the Bureau’s services rely on the individual knowledge and capability of its workforce, rather than systematised and documented end-to-end processes. This is somewhat surprising in an organisation that delivers such a wide range of outputs on an industrial scale.

Box 5 - Process mapping

The Process Review identified a set of key activities contributing to broad processes relating to extreme weather, seasonal forecasting and general weather forecasting, and grouped these activities under the following key process elements: Observation, Run Model, Analyse, Forecast, Communicate, Escalate, Warning and Review. Workshops were held with 60 Bureau staff to collate the entire list of activities within each process.

This information was presented in three visual representations: process flow diagrams that illustrated the steps required to complete each process; Responsible-Accountable-Consult-Inform (RACI) maps to identify which staff have which roles within each process and any duplication or overlap; and Customers-Outputs-Processes-Inputs-Suppliers (COPIS) maps of the Bureau’s extreme weather, seasonal forecasting, and general weather supply chains.

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The Process Review indicated that the Bureau “...does not have a natural disposition to consider its operations from a process orientation”

134 and

that while its activities and functions were well defined, they are not “...integrated into a process architecture with clearly mapped inter-relationships, responsibilities, and dependencies.”

135

Through analysis of the RACI maps, it was also apparent that some processes had multiple personnel accountable, suggesting the need for more clarity on accountabilities within and between different parts of the organisation. The Process Review noted that a “lack of clarity at handover points is often an indicator of possible [in]efficiencies caused either by overlap or by rework at the handover points.”

136

Workshops held as part of the Process Review highlighted that staff saw the Bureau’s major issues as the capability of its technology (raised 141 times), the capacity of its people (raised 118 times) and the capability of its processes (raised 58 times). These observations give rise to a range of opportunities for the Bureau to manage its processes better, in alignment with its systems, including:

taking an overarching ‘systems’ perspective of the organisation;

developing a clear governance structure for its agreed process model;

reducing variation across regions in processes by adopting standard national processes (for example, there is currently no national directive for fire weather services, which has led to an ad-hoc regional approach to charging for these services);

formalising methods for gathering and analysing customer requirements to inform decision-making and monitoring of service delivery processes; and

clarifying and formalising communication paths and establishing systems (ICT) to support messaging (including the prioritisation of messages) within the organisation.

The Process Review noted that the Bureau’s “...capacity and capability are totally dependent on its observational, analytical, and enabling processes, which means that improvements must be driven from these foundations.”

137 It appears

that extreme weather events exacerbate systematic process related issues that are endemic within the Bureau.

138

2.3 Technology In its assessment of the Bureau’s systems and technology, the Review was again assisted by the Process Review commissioned by the Bureau.

139

This work provided some general insights into how the Bureau uses its technology to support its processes to produce extreme weather, seasonal forecasting and general weather forecasting services and products. The systems supporting the Bureau are described below.

2.3.1 Observational network The Bureau’s observation network is part of an integrated international system, containing an inventory of complex technical facilities across Australia and Antarctica.

140 The network includes:

Surface observations – Staffed meteorological stations (58 sites). Automated Weather Stations (AWS) (615 sites), cooperative observers (approximately 370 sites, some with collocated AWS), rainfall observing stations (7,349, many of which are manned by volunteers).

Upper air and satellite observations – Weather balloons (currently 47 stations planned to reduce by 9), radar wind profilers (4 stations, with 9 more planned), aircraft observations (contributions from 69 aircraft, mostly operated by Qantas), satellite data (from Japanese and Chinese geo-stationary satellites and United States, European Union and Chinese polar orbiting satellites and others), ground satellite reception facilities.

Marine/Ocean observations – Sea-level networks (to support tsunami warnings, tide predictions and climate monitoring of sea-level rise), fleet of volunteer observing ships (fluctuates between 80 to 100), annual deployment of about 20 surface drifting buoys

The Bureau’s services rely on the individual knowledge and capability of its workforce, rather than systematised and documented end-to-end processes.

This is somewhat surprising in an organisation that delivers such a wide range of outputs on an industrial scale.

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with a two year lifespan, expendable bathythermograph probes and Argo floats (to provide ocean subsurface profiles of temperature and salinity)

Weather radars – 65 operational weather surveillance radars, one new Doppler radar in Wollongong and three more to be added over the coming years (in Hobart, Mount Isa and the Northern Territory).

141

Discussion The Review received positive comments on the introduction of additional radars, although the gaps in coverage were also raised.

Diagram 16 shows the current radar coverage (identified in blue) and new radars being installed (identified in green) as a result of funding of $48 million over seven years announced in the 2009-10 Budget.

142

Diagram 16 - Radar coverage

In contrast to the Bureau, the Meteorological Service of Canada (MSC) operates only automated weather stations for its government funded surface observing program.

143 The MSC’s

automated surface stations are supplemented by partnered and volunteer observations, including those from provincial agencies, other government departments and airports, as well as effective information sharing systems. All but three of the

MSC’s upper air program stations (31 sites) are now operated by contractors, which has resulted in significant cost savings. A small number of upper air stations are operated by MSC staff (for example, at the national training facility and in extremely remote locations where a local workforce is not available, such as at weather and military stations in the high Arctic). The Canadian government recently provided $75 million over five years for the renewal of MSC’s automatic surface weather and climate stations and weather radars (including upgrading ten radars to dual polarization capability), as well as funding for the extension of the existing contract for the supercomputer.

144

Similarly, almost all of the UK MetOffice’s observations are automated with just three manned observing sites (15 staff) remaining.

145

The Review acknowledges that approaches taken by other countries are not necessarily comparable or would be able to be readily adopted by the Bureau. Barriers include the differences in available technology, climate models and limitations due to difference in geography, size and weather patterns. Nonetheless, the benefits of continuing to increase automation warrant consideration.

2.3.2 Supercomputer The Bureau has substantial computing and data storage requirements. It has owned and operated a supercomputer since the 1980s, with upgrades made roughly every four to five years. The Bureau’s high performance computing infrastructure is one of its most costly assets.

The supercomputer provides the capacity to process observational data (billions of bits of data gathered per day), to undertake research and to run the large models that underpin daily forecasting activity.

Canada operates only automated weather stations for its government funded surface observations program.

Similarly, almost all of the United Kingdom’s observations are automated.

The Bureau’s radars are amongst the most heavily visited pages on its website.

There will continue to be demand to fill remaining gaps in the radar network.

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The Bureau’s Numerical Weather Prediction models require substantial supercomputing capacity to enable the assimilation of a broad range of current weather datasets (atmospheric, oceanographic and land) to make timely and accurate predictions. Numerical weather prediction uses mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict the weather based on current weather conditions.

To generate a published forecast, the model outputs are used in conjunction with observational data using a wide range of additional software applications, many of which have been developed in-house without direct ICT support as discussed in Section 2.1.2.

The Bureau current supercomputer is scheduled to be upgraded by 2013-14. The approach taken to this upgrade is a major decision for the Bureau. It is required to bid for capital funding even to replace like-for-like (i.e. to maintain the status quo). This issue is discussed further in Chapter 4.

Despite some recent improvements, the Bureau’s current arrangements for disaster recovery and business continuity are not completely robust. It recently experienced two significant incidents:

in January 2010 a fire in one of the chillers in the central computing facility air-conditioning infrastructure presented safety risks and highlighted the risk associated with housing a critical piece of infrastructure in the Bureau’s headquarters; and

in August 2011 a fire in one of two Uninterruptible Power Supply (UPS) units that support the central computing facility placed Bureau services (including those for aviation and defence stakeholders) at potential risk of an outage if the fire had spread to the second UPS which is located adjacent.

2.3.3 Information and communications technology network The communication network of landline, satellite and radio systems allows for the flow of information between Bureau offices and other organisations around Australia. The Bureau is also connected to a larger worldwide network

supporting its collaboration with overseas meteorological agencies. The Bureau has raised concerns that its communications costs are rising faster than inflation and that it is likely to experience bandwidth constraint in coming years.

As an illustration, five years ago, the annual download of data from the Bureau’s website was 91,000GB and the peak monthly access rate was 1.3 billion hits. By 2010-11 the annual download rate had doubled to 182,000GB and the peak monthly access rate had nearly quadrupled to 4.9 billion hits.

2.3.4 Trends and drivers

Aging infrastructure The Bureau manages an asset base valued on its balance sheet at approximately $500 million. This includes:

land and buildings ($79 million);

property, plant and equipment ($294 million);

intangible assets ($29 million);

inventories ($17 million); and

cash and receivables ($73 million).

A recent audit of its assets highlighted that the Bureau has a significant number of assets (with a written down value of approximately $33 million) still in commission that have exceeded their intended useful life.

146 As a result, the Bureau is

carrying elevated risks of equipment and service failure. The gap between available funding and replacement cost is increasing over time. This issue is compounded as technology shifts mean that it is not always possible to replace like-for-like.

The Bureau has a significant number of assets still in commission that have exceeded their useful life.

Next generation assets generally offer greater capability for a comparable cost or higher. However, greater capability often results in more data, and the Bureau’s systems then need to be upgraded to cope with these data increases.

The Bureau’s supercomputer is due to be replaced in 2013-14. The Bureau is required to bid for funding to replace it.

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Particularly in the ICT domain, lower cost legacy technology is often no longer available.

Next generation assets generally offer greater capability for a comparable cost or higher. Radars are another example where newer models offer additional capabilities such as dopplerisation (i.e. the measurement of the velocity of objects detected). Costs can also be driven by exogenous factors. Meteorological satellites provide a good example where the volume and complexity of data increases with each new launch, and Bureau systems must be upgraded to cope with these increases.

The Bureau has been implementing a number of strategies to extend the useful life of its assets and manage the gap between available funding and replacement cost. These strategies remain valid and there does not appear to be an imminent crisis although business continuity risk may be increasing.

Legacy of home-grown software The Bureau’s culture previously was one that permitted the proliferation of customised ICT systems. This has made support and upgrades difficult.

147 The Bureau has advised that it has

commenced a process to rationalise its applications and was able to provide some evidence of this (see Section 3.1.2 for further details).

The Bureau has experienced some challenges in delivering efficiencies to its ICT systems, for example, in the migration to a lower cost operating system (see Box 6).

The Bureau committed to a number of cost savings initiatives to deliver targets mandated in the Government’s ICT Efficiency Review (the Gershon Review). One initiative was the phasing out of a number of proprietary hardware systems and migrating to lower cost Linux systems. This was intended to save $1.25 million dollars in replacement costs in 2009-10 and $1.1 million in maintenance costs by 2012-13. Due to an initial underestimate of the extent of the work required, resourcing constraints have caused this initiative to fall well behind schedule.

For these migrations, there is a significant base of very old and highly integrated legacy applications which has added a significant degree of difficulty. The Regional Office migration project requires significant work on locally developed applications to move them into the virtualised Linux environment. This is taking the time of regional staff as well as ICT professionals.

The inability to meet some of the savings targets in the short term has caused budgetary stress in the Bureau's ICT program; however, moving to less proprietary hardware platforms will provide significant savings in the long term. The migration to a single Enterprise Linux environment will reduce development and support costs into the future.

The establishment of virtualised infrastructure* and a virtual first policy** is delivering dividends in hardware maintenance costs, power savings, flexibility, and responsiveness in both the development and operational environments. While seen as difficult in the short term, the porting of applications to a virtualised environment which can be easily replicated is expected to provide better visibility and control of the overall operational environment with a resultant improvement in business continuity capability across the Bureau's operations.

Box 6 - Delivering efficiencies through the migration to a single Enterprise Linux environment

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Other observations made by the Review include that:

improved process governance would enable systems integration across the organisation;

148

and

improved communication processes would ensure consistent information flow through the organisation and allow messaging prioritisation.

149

2.4 Other inputs and suppliers The Review also sought information on the Bureau’s inputs and suppliers to gain a greater understanding of their relationship to the Bureau’s product and service supply chain.

In its assessment of the Bureau’s other inputs and suppliers, the Review was assisted (in part) by the Process Review commissioned by the Bureau. As discussed in Section 2.2, the Bureau’s inputs and suppliers were mapped on COPIS maps to illustrate their interaction with the Bureau’s core processes, outputs and customers along the products and service supply chain.

The main finding of this analysis is that the Bureau does have a wide range of ‘make or buy’ options with respect to how it resources its services for the future. For example, it can undertake its own research, partner with other organisations such as CSIRO, or rely entirely on third party research. Similarly, the Bureau can invest in its own observation network or rely to a greater extent on data supplied by networks installed and operated by other state and local government agencies, or private companies.

At an extreme it could even consider stepping back from supercomputing and preparing forecasts based entirely on model feeds from weather agencies overseas. However, this would result in a degradation in quality and timeliness that is unlikely to be acceptable in the context of severe weather events and therefore is not considered further in this Review.

On the other hand the Bureau has demonstrated some success in adopting technology developed

elsewhere. For example, the Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) is a local implementation of the Unified Model developed by the UK MetOffice and NexGen FWS is an implementation of the Gridded File Editor developed by the United States National Weather Service (see Box 7). Not only does this reduce upfront software development costs, but it avoids the risks associated with unsupported ‘home-grown’ applications.

2.4.1 Relative costs across budget lines

Budget overview The Bureau’s operations are largely funded from Government appropriation. The Bureau also receives a growing proportion of revenue from the sale of goods and services as discussed in Section 1.4. A breakdown of the Bureau’s operating revenue is at Table 11.

The reduction in appropriation funding relates to the change in how depreciation is reported and is offset by the introduction of a departmental

The Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS) is a joint initiative of the Bureau of Meteorology and the CSIRO in cooperation with the university community in Australia. At its core is the implementation of the UK MetOffice’s Unified Model. ACCESS is a coupled climate and earth system simulator which provides the numerical weather prediction capability to underpin the Bureau’s meteorological services, and assists CSIRO by providing the best possible science for use in analysing climate impacts and adaptation, and related fields.

ACCESS became the Bureau’s operational Numeric Weather Prediction system on 17 August 2010, replacing a suite of in-house developed regional and global models. Eventually, ACCESS will allow CSIRO and university scientists to take a holistic view of the entire climate system including elements such as the ocean, carbon cycle, sea-ice, and cloud chemistry. It will also enable Australia to contribute appropriate climate projections and scenarios to the Fifth Assessment by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change.

Box 7- Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)

* a single large computer system hosts a number of smaller virtual systems – this reduces hardware maintenance costs whilst retaining the flexibility of running multiple operating systems

** the employment of virtual systems unless this is impossible due to hardware limitations

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capital budget. In 2010-11 the Bureau’s operating revenue was $264 million, including $202 million from the Australian Government and $62 million from other sources. The Bureau reported an operating deficit of $55 million as a result of the change in the way in which depreciation and asset replacements are appropriated and reported. From 1 July 2010, funding previously appropriated for depreciation was replaced with a Departmental Capital Budget. For the 2010-11 year, the Bureau had a Departmental Capital Budget of $55.2 million, of which it spent $50.2 million. The Departmental Capital Budget is not shown on the Bureau’s Statement of Comprehensive Income as it is considered as contributed equity and reported in the statement of changes of equity. This is an Australian Public Service-wide change intended to align funding arrangements with cash requirements in the years in which obligations fall due.

Income from other sources The Bureau’s income from other sources has increased almost three fold in recent years from $21.5 million in 2007-08 to $62 million in 2010-11. The majority of this revenue is the sale of goods and rendering of services ($60 million in 2010-11). Approximately $4.7 million in 2010-11 was from commercial services, the remainder being cost-recovered under Section 31 of the FMA Act. This is partly the result of stricter implementation of its cost-recovery policies, including the introduction in January 2010 of a revised cost-recovery model for the provision of aviation and defence weather services. An increase in the number and size of cost-recovered projects has also contributed.

Expenditure The Bureau’s total operating expenses are steadily increasing. In 2010-11, operating expenses increased by $31 million (or 11%) compared to the previous year.

Staffing is a key cost driver for the Bureau. In 2010-11 employee expenses represented 51 % of the total costs associated with the delivery of the Bureau’s functions, up from 49% of total costs the previous year. The 13% increase in this category of expense relative to the previous year was a result of the growth in staff numbers (see Section 2.1.1) coupled with an average 3.9% increase in pay rates over 2009-10.

The forward estimates show staff costs decreasing both in absolute dollars and as a percentage of total expenses. This is a troubling trend given the difficulty the Bureau is experiencing in maintaining adequate staff numbers in frontline roles.

Depreciation costs were $61 million in 2010-11 (or 19%) of overall costs. Depreciation increased by 13% relative to the previous financial year as a result of an increased number of full depreciated assets being refreshed (via the Bureau’s asset investment and replacement program) and asset revaluations.

Relative costs across functions The Bureau does not have a full activity based costing system and the Review did not make any significant findings from the estimated attribution of expenditure at sub-program level provided by the Bureau.

At program level, the Bureau identified the following percentage allocations of its budget in 2010-11:

Observations – 16%

Weather and Warnings Services – 21%

Climate Information – 5%

Water Information – 10.6%

Observations and Engineering – 8.9%

Research – 6.4%

IT and Communications – 14.4%

Corporate Support – 17%

This highlights that a large proportion of the Bureau’s budget (46.7%) is allocated to its overheads (IT, Communications and Corporate Support) and its ‘enabling’ functions (Research, Observations and Engineering).

The observations functions involve a large number of staff (approximately 21% of total staff numbers) who are responsible for taking and recording observations across Australia, including at 58 staffed meteorological stations. These staff are largely funded via direct appropriation. The extent to which the Bureau outsources or uses other funding streams for its observation functions is low (see Section 2.3.1 for a discussion of the Canadian business model for observations).

The Bureau’s total operating expenses are steadily increasing.

Staffing is a key cost driver, representing approximately half of the Bureau’s costs.

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In contrast, the Bureau’s funding for its frontline staff appears to be very lean. According to the Bureau, the staffing complement of meteorologists responsible for delivery of the Bureau’s weather forecasts and warnings has decreased by almost 42% in the last decade, declining from 130 in 2001-02 to 76 in 2010-11 (excluding Section 31 funded and project staff). Given that these resources are spread over seven regional offices and that five people are required to provide 24/7 coverage of a single position, simple arithmetic suggests that this unsustainable in the face of downward pressure on the Bureau’s staffing budget. In fact the Bureau has suggested to the Review that in order to operate at affordable staffing levels in the 2012-12 year, it will actually have to reduce its complement of senior forecasters by seven. While the Bureau may consider it has few other viable options to meet its budget, in the context of this Review, such a step would appear quite unwise.

(Diagrams in millions) 2007-08 2008-09 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15

Total resources available $253.7 $272.7 $296.3 $319.5 $332.8 $326.4 $327.9 $334.8

(Year-on-year increase) (7.5%) (8.7%) (7.8%) (4.1%) (-1.2%)

Appropriation

(% of total operating revenue)

(Year-on-year increase)

$232.2

(91.5%)

$244.8

(89.8%)

(5.4%)

$251.1

(84.8%)

(2.6%)

$202.4

(63.3%)

(-19.4%)

$208.6

(62.7%)

(3.1%)

$212.6

(65.1%)

(1.9%)

$212.1

(64.7%)

(-0.2%)

$213.7

(63.8%)

(0.8%)

Other sources

(% of total operating revenue)

$21.5

(8.5%)

$27.8

(10.2%)

$45.2

(15.2%)

$62.0

(19.4%)

$72.9

(21.9%)

$61.5

(18.8%)

$63.3

(19.3%)

$64.2

(19.2%)

Departmental Capital Budget

$55.2

(17.3%)

$51.3

(15.4%)

$52.3

(16.0%)

$52.6

(16.0%)

$56.9

(17.0%)

Total expenses $249.3 $264.8 $289.0 $319.6 $327.8 $326.5 $328.4 $330.5

Staffing costs

(% of total costs)

$127.2

(51.0%)

$132.8

(50.1%)

$141.3

(48.9%)

$162.9

(51.0%)

$160.9

(49.1%)

$164.0

(50.2%)

$166.1

(50.9%)

$167.7

(51.4%)

Suppliers

(% of total costs)

$71.4

(28.2%)

$80.3

(30.3%)

$89.1m

(30.8%)

$92.4

(29.0%)

$109.6

(33.4%)

$104.6

(32.0%)

$104.8

(32.0%)

$105.3

(31.5%)

Depreciation

(% of total costs)

$46.3

(18.6%)

$48.8

(18.4%)

$53.6

(18.6%)

$60.7

(19.0%)

$55.5

(16.9%)

$56.2

(17.2%)

$55.8

(17.1%)

$55.8

(17.1%)

Operating surplus / loss $0.1 $7.8 $7.3 -$0.1 $5.0 -$0.1 -$0.4 $4.3

Table 11 - Breakdown of the Bureau's operating revenue

42

Chapter 3 Challenges, Risks and Opportunities

3.1 Findings from other reviews

3.1.1 O’Kane Review (2007) The objective of this Review was to assess the ability and sustainability of the Bureau to fulfil its role as Australia’s National Meteorological and Hydrological Service.

The O’Kane Review recognised the challenges encountered by the Bureau in operating within its resource envelope in the face of “...ongoing intense and rapid change”

150, including

technological and scientific advances that “...offer the Bureau the potential to provide the Australian nation with a new and enhanced range of meteorological services”

151.

Most of the recommendations suggested the Bureau approach the Department of Finance for additional funding. The key recommendations (all of which are being fully or partially implemented by the Bureau) included:

Expand its environmental monitoring and prediction capabilities. This recommendation is being implemented by the Bureau in collaboration with the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities through the National Plan for Environmental Information.

Implement new forecasting models and re-engineer its operations. This recommendation is being implemented through the NexGen FWS. However, given the lack of process orientation in the Bureau, it is not clear that re-engineering of its operations has been undertaken in any depth.

Enhance weather and climate modelling and prediction computing. This recommendation is being implemented through improvements to ACCESS and upgrades to the supercomputer.

Increase use of satellite and Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay system (AMDAR), further automated data acquisition. This recommendation is being implemented through the increased use of satellites and AMDAR, involving the utilisation of commercial aircraft to automatically measure meteorological parameters and transmit them back to ground as the aircraft operates.

152

Fix priority setting processes, structure, budgeting and staffing. Similar issues were also raised by the Agency Functions and Finances Review in 2008 (see Section 3.1.2).

The Bureau has undertaken a range of measures to improve its internal processes; however, the current Review has also established that continued effort is required in this area. The Bureau’s executive has commented that they believe corporate functions, as well as service delivery functions, are under resource pressure and that this is limiting their capacity to address corporate risks and develop more robust processes.

3.1.2 Agency Functions and Finances Review (2008) An Agency Functions and Finances Review (AFF Review) of the Bureau conducted in 2008 made 31 recommendations. It concluded that the Bureau had the financial resources to perform the functions and deliver the services commissioned by the Australian Government and expected by the Australian community. It suggested that implementing the recommendations would enable the Bureau to operate within its allocated resources. It proposed that as there had been several recent reviews of the Bureau, implementation of the recommendations should be monitored. This ongoing monitoring of the Bureau appears to have encouraged improvements to its internal processes.

The AFF Review did not involve an in-depth analysis of the Bureau’s handling of extreme weather events, seasonal forecasting or related processes. Nonetheless, many issues raised in that review are still relevant and are highlighted below.

Priorities The AFF Review suggested the Bureau maintain its focus on delivering its priorities, namely:

operating a sustainable observing system and delivering data that meet Australia’s needs;

safeguarding the community and advancing its well-being through the delivery of forecasting and warning services in meteorology, hydrology and oceanography; and

creating an integrated national system of water information serving government and community needs.

The current Review has again highlighted that these are core priorities for the Bureau but has also identified that they are articulated in a way that invites broad interpretation. Community expectations rise quickly in response to any improvement in service and thus Australia’s needs are continually being redefined. Expectations are also rising with respect to the Bureau’s role in safeguarding the community, in line with a general

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rise in expectations of emergency management services. It is not evident that these pressures can be met simply by improvements in internal processes.

Investments in technology improvements The AFF Review noted that the Bureau justified ICT investments by arguing that:

an investment in technology would create efficiencies elsewhere in the organisation; and/or

an investment in technology would improve the accuracy of meteorological forecasting.

Such arguments were made in relation to the introduction of the NexGen FWS in the 2009-10 Budget

153. It was argued that the NexGen FWS

would “...provide additional time for forecasters to focus on value-added activities such as the prediction and monitoring of high impact weather events” and “...allow forecasting offices to meet current service demands they are experiencing with recently reduced staff resources and capture future efficiencies once the project is completed.”

154

However, this Review has concluded that the principal benefit of the NexGen FWS has been to achieve greater quality (measured by improved resolution, now down to 6km grid) and quantity (seven day forecast service provided nationally rather than just for capital cities) of output. The NexGen FWS also automatically produces text forecasts and media ready graphics. However, forecasters continue to spend time editing the automated text and images before they are sent for publication. The UK MetOffice has removed forecaster intervention from its site specific forecasts, thus enabling it to increase its weather services from 450 to 5,000 sites across the United Kingdom.

155

While automation has enabled forecasting offices to meet greater demand for day-to-day public forecasting services with current staff levels, there is no measurable evidence that it has freed up forecaster time in a way that augments capacity to respond to severe weather events. Nor is it clear how future efficiencies would be derived once the project is completed or whether rigorous process engineering could yield much reduction in day-to-day labour requirements.

The AFF Review noted that technology solutions do not entirely replace the requirement for human involvement, and that the resultant increase in maintenance and repair costs can have a net negative financial effect on the Bureau. It was suggested greater management attention was warranted to ensure that planned benefits from enhancement projects eventuate. It also raised concerns that major ICT investments had not been considered by Government (UK Unified Model, ACCESS, supercomputer, NexGen FWS), or if consideration was given, the proposed purchases were not explicitly endorsed by government.

The AFF Review recommended the Bureau only undertake new resource intensive projects once they have been considered by government and have adequate funding (including funding for overheads and ongoing costs). This is simply good governance. It is usual for an entity to be required to refer major investment decisions to its owner for approval and necessarily management should not proceed with initiatives if their financial sustainability is in doubt.

It recommended greater emphasis be placed on managing ICT infrastructure and applications through:

documentation of the Bureau’s ICT strategy;

preparation of an accurate asset register; and

rationalisation of applications installed on Bureau systems.

The Bureau has since commenced implementing these initiatives to strengthen ICT governance. For example, it has now documented its ICT Strategy and made a more accurate asset register. However, even with strengthened decision-making around future ICT investments and better discipline regarding in-house application development, challenges remain in managing the legacy of previous decisions and in fulfilling current commitments to complete the roll-out of the NexGen FWS in all states by 2014.

156 In particular,

events such as the recent UPS fire (see Section 2.3.2) highlight that there is a level of risk in terms of business continuity and disaster recovery that

The principal benefit of the NexGen FWS has been to achieve greater quality and quantity of output. Forecasters continue to spend time editing the automated text and images before they are sent for publication.

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may need to be addressed in tandem with any new ICT investment.

There is scope to further rationalise the Bureau’s ICT applications. Earlier this year the Bureau reported that it was examining whether any specific applications could be retired or replaced.

157 The Bureau was able to provide some

evidence of this rationalisation. For example, the Bureau is introducing an Integrated Data Viewer (IDV), essentially a new software application to replace the current suite of legacy tools that are used by the Bureau's forecasters to view the extensive array of data sets in preparing forecasts and warnings.

The Bureau indicated that the implementation of a standard IDV is likely to result in productivity gains including as a result of reductions in downtime in the legacy software systems. It indicated potential savings in ICT maintenance and support costs of up to $477,000 per year.

The lack of documented change processes and the observed tendency of frontline forecasters to customise their tools would indicate that it cannot be taken for granted that these productivity gains will be realised. The challenges involved in resolving these issues should not be underestimated and will take time. The Bureau may also need to take some tough compliance measures to achieve the expected direct cost savings. Nevertheless, this Review encourages the Bureau to persist with further rationalisation of applications as part of a focus on standardising processes and reducing variation, as this may result in additional efficiencies. This will also result in lower risk and reduced cost in the medium term.

Water information The AFF Review noted some significant delivery challenges associated with the implementation of the $450 million Improving Water Information Program, particularly the development of the Australian Water Resources Information System.

Further examination of this program reveals that there are still risks associated with its implementation.

158 However, this Review has

identified that the new resources (principally hydrologists) gained by the Bureau through this program have provided greater flexibility to support flood warning and forecasting during extreme weather events. At the same time, the program has introduced greater ambiguity in the extent to which the Bureau is responsible for these services – a matter not addressed by the AFF Review.

Research The AFF Review advised the Bureau to seek full funding for any climate change research work unless it is able to find offsetting savings from other areas of its research portfolio. This has been achieved to a large extent, as this part of the research program is substantially funded by the Australian Government Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency and other partners (approximately 60% externally funded).

Cost-recovery The AFF Review suggested the Bureau adopt a more rigorous approach to cost-recovery based on a number of principles. While these principles are generally sound and are being implemented by the Bureau, they do not address the sensitive area of cost-recovery from state government agencies. Nor do they address the possibility that improvements in seasonal forecasting services, which may have a high economic value, could also be cost-recovered.

Improvements made by the Bureau since the AFF Review The Bureau has implemented significant improvements to its operations in response to the AFF review and at the initiative of its Director, particularly in relation to its governance of ICT, assets, financial and risk management. These efforts are paying off, delivering greater rigour to the Bureau’s operations. However, many of the governance improvements are still works in progress and in the view of the Director, the corporate functions of Bureau remain under-developed. This means that the Bureau’s executive need to be selective in undertaking further initiatives as there is likely to be a capacity constraint in executive oversight and governance.

The Bureau may need to take some tough compliance measures to achieve the expected direct cost savings from further rationalisation of applications.

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The improvements being made may help the Bureau to manage its resources in a more strategic manner, allowing it to better prioritise its activities and avoid it expanding beyond its natural fit. There is still scope for the Bureau to further improve its governance to assist in mitigating its main business risks (such as business continuity and disaster recovery).

3.1.3 Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry Interim Report (2011) The Interim Report of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry made a number of recommendations for which the Bureau has implementation responsibility either in full or in part. Some recommendations directed toward Queensland State and local governments and associated agencies may also require the Bureau’s involvement. Further details are available in the Australian Government’s response to the Interim Report.

159 Recommendations relevant to this

Review relate to:

the need to review the distribution and number of river height and rainfall gauges in the Brisbane area;

a desire for the Bureau to improve the clarity of its warnings and the areas to which they relate;

a desire for the Bureau to be more closely involved in a range of state-based flood preparedness activities;

the lack of capacity in some local councils to interpret and communicate information from the Bureau, particularly for flash floods; and

a desire for the Bureau to communicate more directly with local councils in relation to flash flood warnings.

In responding to the Inquiry the Australian Government was mindful that the Bureau is required to provide national services and have the capacity to deal with priorities and extreme weather situations as they occur anywhere across Australia.

Where the Bureau is able to respond to service improvements proposed by others, it is preferable to develop a plan to implement them consistently in its operations across the country. Failure to do so draws the Bureau further into state specific tailored arrangements, and limits the Bureau’s ability to draw on staff located in other jurisdictions (as ‘surge capacity’) for extreme weather events. It also raises questions of inter-jurisdictional equity as there is not a clear rationale for the Bureau to deliver different standards of service in different parts of the country.

The Inquiry has highlighted a real challenge for the Bureau – that of managing increasing stakeholder demands and expectations. For example, the expectation that the Bureau will communicate more closely with local councils (of which there are 70 in Queensland and approximately 560 across Australia) is entirely at odds with the current capacity of the Bureau’s regional offices.

Whilst it is understandable that many smaller councils do not have the capacity to interpret and add value to warnings provided by the Bureau or to operate 24 hours per day, seven days per week, it may not be a viable solution to expect the Bureau to provide this service by communicating directly with all local councils across Australia. In October 2011 the Australian Government wrote to all Queensland local councils to assure them that the government is determined to ensure that forecasting and warning services are provided in the most appropriate and effective means possible and will work closely with the Queensland Government and Local Government Association of Queensland to ensure that this occurs. Whilst this assurance may have been welcomed by the local councils, this situation does suggest that the current emergency management model being used in Queensland may need some refinement if it is to make best use of the Bureau’s available capacity.

The final report from the Inquiry is due in February 2012.

It is preferable for Bureau service improvements that respond to recommendations from public inquiries to be implemented consistently across the country.

Since 2008, the Bureau has strengthened its governance of ICT, assets, financial and risk management. There is still scope for improvement to assist in mitigating the Bureau’s main business risks.

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3.1.4 Comrie Review Interim Report The interim report of the Comrie Review into recent flooding in Victoria raised some concerns with the current legislation, policy and structures that constitute the emergency management framework in Victoria.

160 It suggested that the

Victorian government should consider the benefit of central coordination of its emergency service agencies to allow for maximisation of capacity and enhanced interoperability, training, resources and an effective multi-agency response to future emergency events facing the state.

161 If adopted,

these recommendations would have some implications for the arrangements in place between the Bureau and Victoria’s emergency service agencies.

Other concerns raised during consultation for the Comrie Review included the lack of locally relevant, informative flood advice and information, difficulty in understanding the terminology used in such information, difficulties in information exchange and data collection, a general desire for flood gauges/monitoring systems and lack of clarity of roles and responsibilities. Recommendations in the Comrie Review’s final report responding to these concerns are likely to place additional demands on the Bureau and to have more general implications for how flood information is managed.

The final report from the Comrie Review is due in December 2011.

3.2 Gaps and inconsistencies in services The Bureau’s stakeholders reported generally high levels of satisfaction with the Bureau’s delivery of its current suite of services and commended the personal commitment shown by Bureau staff. However, many examples were cited where expectations exceed what is currently being delivered (for example, the expectation for improvements to observing infrastructure in rural Western Australia, including automated weather stations) or is likely to be delivered (for example, precise seasonal forecasting information with fine scale resolution). These examples of mismatched expectations and the analysis in Section 3.1 have led the Review to consider what gaps may need to be addressed in the future.

3.2.1 Extreme weather services The Review identified a number of gaps and inconsistencies relating to the Bureau’s extreme weather services including:

the expressed need for more targeted and accessible information during extreme weather events;

the ability of the Bureau to maintain services 24 hours per day, seven days per week during the course of extreme events;

the extent to which services provided to state agencies are covered by an explicit service level agreement or memorandum of understanding;

the extent to which services for state agencies are consistently cost-recovered (for example, fire services);

the lack of a national directive for fire weather services; and

poor coordination of spot forecasts for fires.

The Review has presented options to address these gaps and inconsistencies under Chapter 4. These include the introduction of improved processes and the creation of new national extreme weather centres for fire and marine weather.

3.2.2 Floods The Review also identified a number of gaps and inconsistencies relating to the Bureau’s flood services, including: inconsistencies in arrangements for issuing, interpreting and disseminating flood warnings; gaps and inconsistencies in the management of, and accessibility to, quality flood information, including flood risk maps; inconsistencies in responsibility for and issuing of flash flood warnings; and gaps in the flood gauge networks, including in their maintenance and management. These are discussed in further detail below.

Issuing, interpreting and disseminating flood warnings Arrangements for issuing, interpreting and disseminating flood warnings have developed in an ad-hoc manner.

This issue was raised consistently by emergency service representatives in interviews for this

There are significant variations between jurisdictions in the arrangements for issuing, interpreting and disseminating flood warnings.

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Review. Significant variations and peculiarities exist between jurisdictions. For example:

in the Melbourne Metropolitan area (Port Phillip and Westernport basins), flood warnings are prepared by Melbourne Water, and disseminated by the Bureau;

in the Northern Territory, flood warnings and forecasts are prepared and disseminated by the Natural Resources, Environment, The Arts and Sport Department (NRETAS). A transition of some of these responsibilities to the Bureau is under negotiation, but NRETAS will continue to be responsible for flash flood warnings near Alice Springs;

in South Australia, flood warnings and forecasts for the River Murray are prepared by the South Australian Department for Water;

in Western Australia, the Department of Water and Department of Main Roads maintain a limited flood forecasting and warning capability that overlaps with the Bureau’s;

various councils maintain some level of expertise in flood warning and forecasting that is drawn upon in flood events, and this has created confusion on some occasions; and

by general agreement, local councils are responsible for flash flood warnings but this arrangement does not appear to be well codified in all areas.

Option 4 in Chapter 4 is aimed at addressing these gaps.

Management of, and accessibility to, quality flood information including flood risks maps Australia does not have a nationally consistent approach to flood risk mapping. There are many different organisations involved in this space; and accessibility and the quality of information are highly variable.

Flood risk mapping information is a very useful tool for planning and flood preparedness to enhance awareness of high flood risk areas, assist prediction of flood occurrence and magnitude and ensure that appropriate and targeted warnings are delivered to affected communities.

Currently, the national role in flood risk mapping is limited. The Review has identified a strong community expectation that the way in which flood risk mapping is undertaken and communicated be improved. This issue was identified in the Natural Disaster Insurance Review. The Australian Government has

announced it will develop a flood risk information portal, hosted by Geoscience Australia, to provide a single access point to existing flood mapping data. The Commonwealth will drive this process in close consultation with state and territory governments.

Responsibility for and issuing of flash flood warnings There is a high level of confusion surrounding who (if anyone) is responsible for issuing flash flooding warnings and variation in arrangements across jurisdictions. Generally the Bureau issues a severe weather warning which highlights weather conditions that could lead to flash flooding in a particular district, rather than a specific flash flooding warning. However, in New South Wales the Bureau does issue flash flood warnings for an agreed group of gauged rivers.

Since the late 1980s, the Bureau has worked closely with many local governments to establish Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time (ALERT) systems, originally developed by the United States National Weather Service. These are essentially networks of rainfall and river height field stations located in the catchments and reporting via VHF radio to a base station computer in a state emergency service agency or local council office (the arrangements vary between jurisdictions). The information is also provided to the Bureau, for use in flood forecasting models and for publication on the Bureau website. The method of dissemination of this information by the relevant state agency or local council to their own staff and to the public varies between jurisdictions. The Bureau provides the base station software, free of charge, and includes training in its use and other technical support as appropriate.

There are number of challenges and limitations associated with flash flood forecasting. A recent review

162 of advances in flash flood forecasting has

indicated that:

effective flash flood forecasting (with useful lead times) is one of the most challenging areas in hydrology, particularly due to the

Effective flash flood forecasting (with useful lead times) is one of the most challenging areas in hydrology.

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uncertainties associated with rainfall forecasts;

flash floods usually occur in small catchments (less than 300km

2) that are poorly gauged or

ungauged, thus remote sensed data is particularly useful for hydrological modelling in such catchments;

urban areas are highly vulnerable to flash floods, mainly due to the existence of large impervious areas (exacerbated by population growth and climate change); and

there is no existing model capable of making reliable flash flood forecasts in urban watersheds.

The limitations of the Bureau’s current flood forecasting system for use in the flash flooding context were recently considered by Dr Phillip Jordan, an independent hydrological expert for the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry. He concluded that the system used by the Bureau for forecasting of non-flash floods is not suitable in its current form for flash flood forecasting.

163 He indicated that to provide a site

specific flash flood warning service would require different systems (see Box 8).

164

Box 8 - Hydrological advice to the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry

Dr Jordan suggested that “an effective flash flood warning system would need to overcome the above limitations. Specifically a flash flood warning system providing useful lead times would require:

• A greater degree of automation, with model runs initiated automatically at a regular frequency without any forecaster intervention;

• Consideration of the possible implementation of a different hydrological model, such as a spatially distributed model, more amenable to automated production of accurate forecasts for small catchments without forecaster intervention;

• Spatially and temporally distributed quantitative rainfall estimates, which are most likely to be obtained from a combination of weather radar and reporting rain gauges;

• Insertion of quantitative rainfall forecasts with limited or no manual intervention; and

• Automated production of pro-forma forecasts and warnings for specific locations, with appropriate systems put in place for the forecaster to review and approve the automated warning prior to its issue”.

He also advised that “a significant investment would be required to develop, implement, operate and maintain an effective and specific flash flood warning system for Australia as outlined above.

He commented that “It is unlikely for most places in Australia that any organisation, other than the Bureau, could invest the resources required to develop and maintain the institutional capacity required to operate an effective flash flood warning system for their jurisdiction”.

Dr Jordan advised that “the existing modelling approach used by the Bureau is currently unsuitable for flash flood warning because:

• The current system requires too much manual intervention by flood forecasters to be workable for providing customised flash forecasts for a very large number of small catchment areas;

• The system lacks automated input of quantitative rainfall estimates from radar that have been ground calibrated using the reporting rain gauge network;

• Manual intervention is required to insert quantitative rainfall forecasts for each catchment; and

• Forecasts produced by the modelling system need to be manually interpreted and converted into a warning”.

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This is consistent with comments made by the United States meteorological expert who was consulted for this Review. He indicated that:

“a viable flash flood forecasting system will require the automatic fusion of high quality precipitation observations from rain gauges, radar networks, and satellite information. The multi-sensor precipitation estimates serve as essential inputs for the quantitative precipitation forecasts produced by weather models and expert forecasters. Real-time access to soil conditions and geo-referenced information about small basin topography also are

required.”165

Gaps in flood gauge network There are gaps in the Bureau’s maintained river and rainfall gauge network. Though most of the major rivers in Australia are covered, there are many examples of catchments where gauging is inadequate or non-existent, such as in the Wimmera Mallee area of Victoria and large parts of Western Australia. As well as this, many smaller rivers which flow through significant communities are not monitored by the Bureau.

166 This means

that, when heavy rain falls, warnings of floods are not given for these rivers. There are also gaps in the coverage of automatic rainfall and river level gauges. Automatic gauges enable data to be collected and transmitted to the Bureau in real-time.

167 Without automatic data collection, gauges

showing flood level waters must be read manually. During an extreme event, this may not occur in time to issue warnings for settlements downstream.

Over the last ten years a number of Australian Government programs have made funding available to the states and local councils for the establishment of monitoring networks. Through the Modernisation and Extension of Hydrologic Monitoring Systems Program, the Bureau has

provided financial assistance to assist water information managers named in the Water Regulations 2008 to modernise and extend their hydrological monitoring, data capture, transfer and data management systems. This is aimed at improving the accuracy, currency and comprehensiveness of the hydrological data that the Bureau receives.

168

However, in recent years many Australian Government programs have been broadened to cover all natural disasters, which may have resulted in some states prioritising other hazards above floods, and therefore spending less on their flood monitoring networks. The Bureau has commented that decisions made by the states and local councils to expand their networks can also result in unplanned costs for the Bureau. Generally its advice will be sought on location, installation and maintenance. While this is desirable in terms of quality of outcome, it does make extra demands on scarce Bureau resources.

3.2.3 Seasonal forecasting services The major gaps and inconsistencies identified by the Review in relation to seasonal forecasting services generally related to the level of detail, accuracy and localisation of data.

Seasonal forecasts have improved a great deal since their introduction in 1989. Some stakeholders indicated they are satisfied with the current level of service.

169 However, some sectors

pointed to a need for more detailed, accurate and localised data to enable better decision-making and risk management.

Reliable seasonal forecasting has considerable potential to deliver tangible benefits for planning business operations in agriculture and other industry and government sectors. The benefits already being captured would be enhanced through improved seasonal forecasting, clarification and education on the appropriate interpretation and application of forecasts and, accordingly, increased user confidence in what seasonal forecasts do (and do not) offer.

The Bureau has reported that recent international scientific advances and computing improvements have increased the potential for substantial skill improvements and greater resolution in seasonal forecasts.

170 Increased supercomputing enables

the Bureau to run complicated dynamical seasonal prediction models which take into account the interaction of the atmosphere, land surface and ocean. As described in Section 1.2.5, the Bureau is using an experimental dynamical seasonal climate outlook model as part of its POAMA-2 system,

Over the last ten years a number of Australian Government programs have made funding available to the states and local councils for the establishment of monitoring networks. However, not all catchments and rivers are monitored.

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which it is currently unable to implement on an ongoing operational basis due to resource constraints. This model has shown improvements on the current statistical seasonal climate outlook model, but it is not as good as the best of the international models already available.

As described in Section 1.2.5, the quality of the Bureau’s seasonal forecast products and services will only improve incrementally based on current resourcing, and could be inferior to those of other international meteorological agencies by 2020. A step change in the Bureau’s seasonal forecasting capability would require significant investment in the Bureau’s POAMA system. This would include funding for a large amount of research and development to enable the POAMA system to assimilate and account for a broader range of climate information and variables, as well as investing in the necessary observational systems in the ocean, atmosphere and land, such as additional ocean buoys and better utilisation of satellite data. This step change would also require investment in the Bureau’s supercomputing capacity to run the advanced POAMA system.

Chapter 4 provides an option to address these gaps in seasonal forecasting at Option 28, and an option for improved supercomputing is provided

at Option 27.

3.3 Delivery risks The Bureau operates in an environment that is inherently associated with high levels of risk. It is wholly responsible, in part responsible, or perceived to be responsible for a number of risks that, if realised, could trigger significant consequences for the Bureau, the Australian Government and their stakeholders.

Because it delivers high volume services in tight timeframes, the Bureau would be expected to have a particularly low tolerance for business continuity risks or for risks associated with its ability to deliver services at times of peak demand.

The Bureau’s risk handbook describes its risk categories and the potential sources of those risks.

171 Table 13 provides the Bureau’s description

of the types of risks to which the Bureau is exposed (grouped by categories used in the risk handbook) relevant to the Review’s terms of reference.

A recent risk audit found that the Bureau was meeting its risk targets and maturity goals and has a clear process for identifying, assessing and treating risks, in line with best practice standards.

172 While this finding reflects positively

on the Bureau’s organisational approach to risk management, it does not alleviate concerns (repeatedly raised by the Bureau) regarding the high levels of residual risk

173 it is carrying.

3.3.1 Stress test In 2009, following the Black Saturday bushfires, the Bureau undertook an exercise (‘stress test’) to

Risk Category Risk

Operational Reliance on third party information to make flood warning decisions that is often not up to the standard required by the Bureau and can be unreliable. Lack of clarity surrounding the Bureau’s role in extreme weather event services. Significant demands from the media.

Strategic Lack of clear accountability mechanisms and defined processes. Ownership or perceived ownership of risks that are beyond its ability to treat within current resources.

Resource Staff working long hours and under extreme levels of pressure during extreme weather events. Current supercomputing capacity and its inability to support the Bureau’s current suite of services beyond 2013, and ICT business continuity. Reduced capacity to house and secure information technology infrastructure.

External Ability to cost recover services provided. Ability to manage external stakeholder relationships and expectations. Potential for future extreme events diminishing the Bureau’s reputation. Natural hazards, such as floods, fire, earthquakes, storms, landslides, lightning, hail, drought – weakness relates to their ability to extend beyond Bureau’s current capability and capacity and cause a critical failure.

Occupational Health and Safety (OHS)

Injury to staff, contractors and customers including accidents, injuries and death. Potentially unsafe working conditions, inappropriate working practices.

A step change in the Bureau’s seasonal forecasting capability would require significant investment.

Table 13 - Categories of delivery risks

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test the limits of the Bureau’s existing risk treatment strategies under simultaneous and sustained severe weather events. The exercise highlighted a number of business continuity risks and points of potential failure (see Box 9) through simulating a number of hypothetical extreme events impacting the country simultaneously.

In response, the Bureau introduced short term treatments to address these risks. This involved temporarily reallocating resources towards the weather and flood services from other functions within the organisation.

According to the Bureau, the events that occurred in the 2010-11 summer season exceeded the seriousness of the most extreme scenario contemplated under the 2009 stress test, placing the Bureau’s staff and systems under serious levels of pressure. During this challenging period, the Bureau experienced:

increased operational pressure on all systems (observations, forecasts, ICT and communications);

flying squad staff moving across several states and back again to handle home-state events;

increased pressure from emergency managers for additional information to assist with decision-making (for example, evacuations, dam releases and equipment logistics);

extreme and unreasonable working hours for operational staff in particular, leading to occupational health and safety concerns, fatigue and increased risk of error;

extended demands from the Australian and state governments for detailed briefings; and

immense public demand for information and warning advice.

3.3.2 Priority risks requiring early attention The Bureau’s concerns about its ability to manage risk (particularly residual or external risk) and the realisation of major risks during the events of 2010-11, have caused the Review to reflect on the risks requiring early attention.

There are a number of risks to the sustainability of the Bureau over the short to medium term.

Options for addressing these risks are discussed in Chapter 4.

In 2009 the Bureau conducted a ‘stress test’ which highlighted a number of business continuity risks and points of potential failure.

Box 9- Stress test-induced staffing requirements

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They are:

an over reliance on a small number of meteorologists, hydrologists and other critical staff to deliver key services, particularly during protracted extreme weather events;

confusion outside of the Bureau regarding the role of the Bureau in developing, issuing and disseminating flood forecasts and warnings;

dependence on third party information for flood warning services that is not always timely or reliable;

an inability to adequately resource certain services and associated activities due to conflicting organisational priorities; and

an inability to implement nationally consistent services due to conflicting jurisdictional requirements.

3.3.3 Mitigation activities for the 2011-12 summer season The Review notes that ahead of the 2011-12 summer season the Bureau has identified a number of measures it will or has taken to mitigate these risks within existing resources, including:

retaining a number of international meteorologists;

bringing out fire forecasters from the United States under reciprocal arrangements;

encouraging regional and Head Office staff to take leave outside the peak season;

drawing on the severe weather support group from Head Office and regional staff in non-affected regions to create flying squads to assist regions as needs arise;

conducting pre-season inspections, repairs and maintenance of observing systems including its flood warning gauges to ensure that the equipment is fully functional;

providing competency training for new staff and other staff to expand the pool of potential support staff;

recruiting new staff for the Queensland regional office, having the Queensland Regional Office's retired former senior hydrologist available on stand-by and filling vacant positions in other regions; and

conducting pre-season road shows that have raised awareness among state emergency services agencies and key stakeholders.

While these measures demonstrate the Bureau has contingency plans in place, they also highlight that it has limited further reserves on which to draw. A more sustainable long term position requires some additional bolstering of capacity.

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Chapter 4 Practical Steps

4.1 Overview

4.1.1 Treatment of Priority Actions and options The focus of this Review is on the Bureau’s capacity to deliver extreme weather and seasonal forecasting services. The previous chapters have identified both unmet demand and supply constraints, which are manifested in various risks to the sustainability of the Bureau’s operations.

The Review has identified a range of options, which have been classified as follows:

Recommended priority actions to mitigate risks requiring early attention;

Recommended priority actions that involve strategic choices for government;

Recommended priority actions for the Bureau to support consistent service standards and build organisational resilience;

Options that could provide savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau; and

Options to provide enhanced services where there is proven demand.

While some of the options can be implemented by the Bureau on its own initiative, most are presented for consideration by the Australian Government. The government’s preferred course of action will depend on its own view as to the strategic direction of the Bureau and other criteria, including budget and the extent to which the Australian Government is extending its role in emergency management. In addition, some of the options presented will require action by other parties, noting that many of the Bureau’s functions are delivered in collaboration with other agencies.

A number of the options build on others so that a range of combinations is possible, depending on the fundamental view of the strategic direction in which the Bureau should head. Specific consideration should be given to the need for orderly change management processes and the benefits of careful sequencing of related actions. Importantly, implementation, even of the priority actions, will need to be staged over a two to three year period to allow adequate time to build up the capacity and for planning and consultation. Likewise, it would be prudent to limit the number of initiatives that are on foot at any one time so that sufficient executive oversight of each initiative may be maintained.

The Review acknowledges that many of these options will require funding, through internal cost saving exercises or supplementation. The cost estimates provided for each option are only indicative, based on information provided by the Bureau. They have not been independently assessed by the Review. Further consideration of any of these options would require rigorous cost benefit analysis (as expected in the budget process). The Review also recommends that the provision of any new resources should be conditional on implementation of process improvements, agreed reprioritisations and continuing implementation of the improvements resulting from the AFF Review.

4.1.2 Recommended priority actions to mitigate risks requiring early attention The Review recommends that the highest priority be given to reducing the Bureau’s over reliance on a small number of frontline staff to deliver key services, particularly during protracted extreme weather events. Practically speaking, this does require an investment to build up the number of people who can fill these roles. It will take time to replicate the depth of experience and relationship skills of the handful of individuals who lead these functions at present. For this reason, the Review is recommending an early boost to the number of frontline meteorologists and hydrologists in the Bureau’s regional offices, potentially commencing in the 2012-13 financial year (with additional staff phased in over subsequent years). This could be followed by additional improvement measures suggested by the Bureau, including some organisational changes, as discussed under ‘Options to provide enhanced services where there is proven demand’.

Another early priority should be the establishment of clear service level agreements with key stakeholders. This is critical to enable the Bureau to establish service boundaries and manage expectations as demands for additional, value-adding services increase. The rigour implied by the United Kingdom’s funding model (where additional services are only provided on the basis of an explicitly costed agreement) may be a useful precedent for the Bureau to follow.

4.1.3 Recommended priority actions that involve strategic choices for government The Review has identified the need to address confusion regarding the role of the Bureau in developing, issuing and disseminating flood forecasts and warnings. While the Bureau itself is clear about the delineation of roles, current

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arrangements are complex and inconsistent across regions. They are not well documented or founded in any formal intergovernmental agreement. At the minimum, this requires more extensive communication and reinforcement of the responsibilities of third parties to play their part, such as the maintenance of flood gauges.

While germane to the findings of this Review, the national arrangements for flood management are beyond its terms of reference. Nevertheless, because of the significance of the issues raised in the course of the Review, some additional options have been identified which governments may wish to consider. Some of these options would require a decision by the Australian Government to take on responsibilities that currently rest with the other tiers of government but arguably are not being discharged as effectively as the community expects.

Given the recent announcement by the Australian Government that it will establish a flood risk information portal to be hosted by Geoscience Australia, a collaborative approach between Geoscience Australia and the Bureau (similar to that in place for Tsunami) is worthy of consideration. Under such an approach, Geoscience Australia would be responsible for static flood risk mapping, and the Bureau for dynamic modelling during flood events.

The Review has noted that recent decisions by the government have broadened the scope of the Bureau’s activities beyond traditional meteorological services. This has included significant investments in water information and to develop a National Plan for Environmental Information (NPEI). The Review has identified options for reprioritisation of resources to give greater priority to traditional meteorological and public safety outcomes, in recognition of the changing nature of weather related risks and the increase in community expectations of government in this regard.

The Review recognises that narrowing the Bureau’s focus too far would represent a significant reversal of direction for the Bureau and would require some potentially unpalatable decisions to reduce services in some areas. A middle ground option worth considering would be to focus the Bureau’s evolving environmental information role on natural hazards in the first instance. This would align well with the general trend in emergency service provision towards an all-hazards approach and is anticipated in Bureau initiatives such as the planned introduction of an integrated all-hazards decision system.

Finally, the Review notes that the Bureau is facing significant investment requirements in both storage and processing computer capacity by 2014 (even on a standstill basis). As the Bureau’s current supercomputer is not due to be upgraded until 2015, it is vital that the planning for this major project commences now and that the Bureau engages the expertise of the Department of Finance and Deregulation to assist with the development of the required bid for capital funding.

4.1.4 Recommended priority actions for the Bureau to support consistent service standards and build organisational resilience Although the Bureau is implementing a range of improvements to its internal governance arrangements both in response to previous reviews and at the initiative of its Director, this Review has identified the need to continue implementing these improvements, including to complete its workforce planning project and succession plans for key staff. Efficient and effective corporate support systems and business processes are critical to the resilience of the Bureau in maintaining consistently high quality, high volume services and to meet the challenges of both underlying growth and increasing variability in demand.

4.1.5 Options that could provide savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau A range of options are presented that could result in savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau. Some of these savings opportunities might be unpalatable to government or to interests not considered in scope for this Review. The Review accepts the Bureau’s contention that the most straightforward savings options have already been implemented to deliver the efficiency dividend. Any savings of scale would have implications for some customer groups or for the long term sustainability of the Bureau’s operations and therefore might need to be reversed in future budget periods. Cutting back on research is an example of this. Some involve large scale business configuration changes or services ceasing and therefore would incur implementation costs. However, the Review has noted similar changes are being progressed by other meteorological agencies internationally to provide savings, for example greater automation and outsourcing of observations. These options should not be overlooked.

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4.1.6 Options to provide enhanced services where there is proven demand The Review has identified a range of options to boost the Bureau’s capacity to deliver enhanced services for which there is proven demand. These options would require either a targeted injection of funding or to be offset by savings or cost-recovery.

Many of the options presented in this section would require significant investment in staff resources or capital assets. They are included as having potentially large benefits in the context of the stakeholder interests identified in this Review and to give an indication of the level of investment that might be required to satisfy their preferences. The Bureau may wish to develop these options for further consideration, in which case detailed analysis of both costs and benefits would be required.

56

Recommended Priority Actions and Options

Action required from:

Bu

reau

Australian

Go

vernment

State

Go

vernment

Oth

er Parties

Recommended priority actions to mitigate risks requiring early attention

Priority Action 1: Boost the number of frontline meteorologists to build response capacity in regional forecasting centres




Priority Action 3: Formalise and standardise service levels provided to emergency services

Recommended priority actions that involve strategic choices for government

Priority Action 4: Agree clear allocation of responsibilities to state and local government for flood management, with defined boundaries on the Bureau’s role and:

(a) As a minimum:

(i) Agree national standards for operation of flood monitoring networks and vest responsibility in fewer agencies

(ii) Clarify roles and responsibilities for issuing flash flood warnings

(b) And either:

(i) Focus the Bureau’s role on data management and divest responsibility for flood monitoring infrastructure from the Bureau; or

(ii) Expand and consolidate the Bureau’s role in flood management by:




(d) Improving the information base for flood warnings, including access to flood risk maps

Priority Action 5: Focus the Bureau’s evolving environmental information role on natural hazards in the first instance

Priority Action 6: Explore opportunities to re-phase investments in large scale projects and programs such as the Strategic Radar Enhancement Program, the NexGen Forecast and Warning System Products and the Improving Water Information Program

Recommended priority actions for the Bureau to support consistent service standards and build organisational resilience

Priority Action 7: Complete workforce planning project and succession plans as a matter of urgency

Priority Action 8: Firm up approval processes and funding for any departures from provision of the basic product set

Priority Action 9: Ensure the Bureau puts in place necessary planning and governance arrangements to develop its bid for capital funding to maintain its critical supercomputing capacity

Priority Action 10: Extend ICT governance arrangements to all applications and subject in-house development to rigorous approval processes

Priority Action 11: Review disaster recovery and business continuity plans

Priority Action 12: Start a project to introduce organisational process thinking with a view to standardising processes and product specifications

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Priority Action 13: Focus leadership practices to re-orient culture away from customisation and experimentation and towards reliable, efficient and consistent documented processes

Options that could provide savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau

Option 14: Increased automation and outsourcing of observations

Option 15: Explore options to limit forecaster intervention in site-specific web forecasts

Option 16: Centralise media services and establish protocols for media activity

Option 17: Foster private sector service providers who can offer tailored services or broadcast high quality presentation of general purpose weather information

Option 18: Review level of investment in research activities to free up budget and reduce pressure on computing capacity

Option 19: Review and rebalance relative investment in long term climate modelling and medium-term seasonal outlook

Option 20: Cease or reduce the Ionospheric Prediction Service or offer it as a commercial service

Option 21: Apply a consistent cost-recovery model to all services delivered to state/territory fire agencies

Option 22: Explore options to obtain revenue from advertising on the Bureau’s website

Option 23: Phase out seasonal prediction development and modelling and rely on products generated elsewhere


(c) Identifying potential offsets from government beneficiaries of any additional investment in seasonal forecasting services

(d) Undertaking market research to establish industry willingness to pay for enhanced seasonal forecasting services

Option 25: Lower yield options identified by the Bureau




(d) Outsource the Bureau’s library

Options to provide enhanced services where there is proven demand

Option 26: Additional frontline meteorologists and specialised centres and systems

(a) Enhanced severe weather units

(b) National extreme weather centres


(d) Enhanced observation network

Option 27: Upgrade to the Bureau’s supercomputing capacity

(a) Status quo

(b) Step change

(c) Further enhancements

Option 28: Improved seasonal forecasting capabilities



Option 29: Explore use of social media to enhance data gathering from authorised and informal sources and to disseminate weather information

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4.2 Recommended priority actions to mitigate risks requiring early attention

Priority Action 1: Boost the number of frontline meteorologists to build response capacity in regional forecasting centres Currently two to three meteorologists are responsible for monitoring the weather and issuing public and marine warnings in each of the Bureau’s regional forecasting centres. During the day, each forecasting office comprises a Senior Meteorologist and a duty Meteorologist covering public and marine forecast and warnings. Overnight, this same forecast and warning responsibility rests with one Senior Meteorologist. In addition, during weekdays each regional forecasting centre is managed by a Supervising Meteorologist and there are two severe weather specialists who can provide some additional shift capacity during the summer period and during extreme weather events.

In total, the Bureau’s current budget for its extreme weather forecasting services allows for a total of 76 meteorologists in ongoing frontline positions, including 14 extreme weather experts. This equates to between nine to 12 meteorologists in each regional forecasting centre. The Bureau also has another 12 meteorologists in its Head Office in support roles that are available to be called upon during extreme weather events. As the Bureau is required to provide a 24 hours per day, seven days per week service, the raw staff numbers do not give a clear picture of actual staff available during a day or night. This is because it typically requires more than five paid staff to maintain a 24 hour shift around the clock for every day of the year.

By comparison, Canada employs 227 meteorologists across its seven regional offices. These staff have similar scope in responsibility, serve a nation of roughly the same size as Australia, and operate under comparable governance arrangements. In Canada seven people are rostered to provide one 24/7 desk. This includes a 20% allowance for training and development as per the management agreement, as well as allowing for annual leave and other paid leave.

The Bureau’s current staffing levels, at around five per 24 hour shift position, inhibit its capacity to provide a timely and effective extreme weather forecasting and warning service. As described in

Section 2.1.2, the Bureau’s regional staff are often required to work unsustainably long hours to maintain these services, particularly during sustained extreme weather events. In addition, meteorologists are facing other challenges and limitations as a result of these staffing constraints, described below.

No public and marine forecast and warnings meteorologists work overnight in any of the regional forecasting centres, leaving all the severe weather monitoring responsibilities to one Senior Meteorologist. This restricts Senior Meteorologists’ ability to adequately train other staff, supervise all operations (aviation, marine and public weather) in their regional forecasting centre, and to liaise with emergency services and media during the peak morning news cycle.

The current staffing levels of five senior meteorologists to one 24 hour position do not allow appropriate periods of training, staff performance management and other important functions associated with a senior position.

Because of the need to maintain operations, meteorologists have a limited capacity to access training. Training is important for meteorologists as it enables them to enhance their scientific, technical and management capabilities. For example, this includes developing their capacity to perform during high stress and demand situations, liaise with the media, and to stay abreast of international developments in the science of meteorology. The Bureau reported that in 2010-11, it was only able to provide an average of five days training for each meteorologist, while forecasters in the United States receive over 30 days of specialist skills training per year.

The Bureau currently provides limited on-the-job training for its graduate meteorologists. Following their graduation from the Bureau’s Graduate Diploma in Meteorology course, current staffing levels mean that meteorologists are required to transition into operational forecasting roles more quickly than desired. Previously, graduates were provided with additional on-the-job training to ensure they were sufficiently experienced and skilled to be effective operational forecasters. However, this training was ceased by the Bureau as part of efforts to reduce costs.

These constraints, combined with the demands placed on the Bureau during recent extreme weather events, suggest that the Bureau is at the limit of its human capacity to provide a sustainable

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extreme weather forecasting and warning service. This creates risk for the Bureau, the government and the public. There are limited ways to reduce the level of risk without making more people available to serve on the frontline.

The presence of a group of internationally recruited meteorologists (some engaged on short term contracts as part of the NexGen FWS project) did boost the Bureau’s surge capacity during recent severe weather events. The Bureau has advised that their contracts will not be renewed unless additional budget provision is made. Retention of some of these contractors is in train as a contingency measure for the 2011-12 summer period (as outlined in Section 3.3.3). While this re-allocation of human resource was expedient, it has had knock-on effects, slowing down the roll-out of NexGen FWS and leaving a probable budget shortfall in future years as the project nears completion.

In light of these constraints and risks, it is proposed that the number of frontline meteorologists be increased by 42, from 76 to 118, and that three staff be added to the Bureau’s Head Office. As reflected in Table 14 below, this would typically provide for an increase of three additional meteorologist per week for night shifts in each regional forecasting centre, plus one Senior Meteorologist and two trainees per week for day shifts, which equates to an average of an additional 1 meteorologist for night shifts, 0.3 of a Senior Meteorologist and 0.6 of a trainee over the entire year (based on a more normal requirement of six paid staff to maintain a 24 hour shift). Importantly, these additional staff would provide essential surge capacity and would ensure more sustainable staffing levels, as the total number of staff supporting each 24 hour shift would increase

above the minimum requirement of five. The benefits of this proposed action are outlined below.

It would provide greater coverage of weather services at night, assisting with the detection of and response to extreme events. This proposed action would add one public and marine forecast and warnings meteorologist to the night shift in each regional forecasting centre. This would enable the Senior Meteorologists to spend more time training other staff, supervising all operations (aviation, marine and public weather) in their regional forecasting centre, and to liaise with emergency services and media during the peak morning news cycle.

It would enable improved access to training. This proposed action would supplement the current number of Senior Meteorologists by adding one Senior Meteorologist to each regional forecasting centre. This would free up the time available for meteorologists to access training to enhance their scientific, technical and management capabilities; and allow them adequate time to complete important management and administrative tasks.

It would restore the Bureau’s capacity to provide adequate on-the-job training to its graduate meteorologists as Trainee Meteorologists. This proposed action would add two Trainee Meteorologist’s to each regional forecasting centre. These Trainees would be transitioned into operational forecaster roles following a sufficient period of on-the-job training. The increased number of Senior Meteorologists would assist in this regard, as they would manage this training and assess staff competencies. This proposed

Region Current total staff + Overnight shift meteorologists

+ Senior meteorologists

+ Trainee meteorologists

New Total

SA 10 (2D+1N) 3 (1N) 1 (0.3D) 2 (0.7D) 16 (3D+2N)

Tas/Ant 9 (2D+0.5N) 3 (1N) 1 (0.3D) 2 (0.7D) 15 (3D+1.5N)

NSW 12 (3D+1N) 3 (1N) 1 (0.3D) 2 (0.7D) 18 (4D+2N)

Qld 12 (3D+1N) 3 (1N) 1 (0.3D) 2 (0.7D) 18 (4D+2N)

WA 11 (3D+1N) 3 (1N) 1 (0.3D) 2 (0.7D) 17 (4D+2N)

Vic 11 (2D+1N) 3 (1N) 1 (0.3D) 2 (0.7D) 17 (3D+2N)

NT 11 (2.5D+1N) 3 (1N) 1 (0.3D) 2 (0.7D) 17 (3.5D+2N)

Total 76 21 7 14 118

Table 14 - Proposed boost to frontline meteorologist staff to address risks requiring early attention

Note: The numbers in brackets relate to the average actual staff covering for either a day (D) or night (N) shift. This is based on staffing numbers required to cover a 24 hour shift. The numbers above include the 14 extreme weather experts that are available to be called upon during extreme weather events.

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action would also assist with succession planning; as a large number of experienced meteorologists are due to retire in the next five to ten years. It will be vital that these roles are filled by highly competent and well-trained meteorologists.

Table 14 provides a summary of the increase in the number of frontline meteorologists that, in the opinion of the Review, is needed to enhance the Bureau’s capacity to respond to extreme weather events on a sustainable basis. As it will take time to replicate the depth of experience and relationship skills of the handful of individuals who lead these functions at present, it will take a number of years to build up this capacity.

This cost of this option, when fully implemented, is estimated to be in the order of $10 million per year.

As it will take a number of years for the additional trainees to progress through to the more senior positions, the Bureau is advocating that the proposed increase in numbers be implemented as quickly as possible. To provide back-up capacity while the new recruits are in training, the Bureau has also proposed that the international contract meteorologists be kept on in 2012-13 and that the budgeted reduction of seven senior meteorologists not take place. Both these measures would add further costs (in the order of $4 million) to the front end of the phase-in period. This priority action is recommended simply to put the Bureau’s current operations on a more sustainable footing.

In the medium term, trends in demand suggest that it would be desirable to build another layer of capability to respond to extreme weather events. These additional steps including some organisational changes and specialist resources as discussed at Option 26.



Although the Bureau performed well during recent

severe flood events, its capacity was stretched to

breaking point during the period July 2010 to June 2011, when a record number of flood warnings and forecasts were issued in Victoria, New South Wales and Queensland. Significant flooding also occurred in all other states and territories of the nation during this time. This caused the Bureau to reflect on and acknowledge the heavy burden of risk it was carrying throughout the flood season. The Bureau reported that significant service failures were avoided only because resources were redirected in advance, along with staff working unsustainable hours over the peak period.

The Bureau currently employs 42 staff across Australia in its flood forecasting and warning services (see Table 15). This includes 24 hydrologists, 14 field technicians, two system support staff and two staff in supervisory roles. They are spread across all of the states and territories in Flood Warning Centres in each of the Bureau’s Regional offices, and are required to switch from normal working hours to 24/7 operations whenever flood conditions arise. The Bureau can also call on an additional 12 trained emergency relief staff normally assigned to other duties.

While this arrangement provides a limited short term contingency, it is inadequate to provide a 24/7 service over extended periods or when there are multiple simultaneous events. The Bureau’s flood operations are highly dependant on one to two senior flood forecasters, who are required to work very long hours during protracted flood events with limited backup staffing capacity. While the Bureau can call on the 12 additional trained emergency staff, the work they would usually undertake is compromised. This proposal to bolster the number of staff in the regions and Head Office by up to 23 staff would significantly mitigate the risks associated with an over-reliance on a small number of individuals during protracted flood events.

This priority action presents a number of benefits, outlined below.

It would significantly improve the Bureau’s ability to prepare and disseminate warnings. By having more time allocated to media

Current staffing level Proposed staffing level

Regional Offices 38 (includes 24 hydrologists and 14 field technicians – typically 3 hydrologists and 2 technicians per region)

52 (includes an additional 7 hydrologists and 7 technicians – one each per region)

Head Office 4 13*

Total 42 65

Table 15 - Current and proposed staffing levels

*Note: the number of additional Head Office staff required for this purpose needs further assessment.

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contact and involvement in the state-based emergency management procedures, hydrologists would be able to focus more on the vital function of warning dissemination.

It would significantly improve the Bureau’s ability to liaise with emergency services and the media during flood events, as hydrologists would have more available time to plan for this engagement.

It would enhance the essential ongoing maintenance of the flood monitoring network across the nation, as this would be the primary focus of the proposed additional technicians in the regions.

Some increase in staff in the Head Office would ensure greater coordination and oversight of the Bureau’s flood services and more efficient use of resources across the regions. These staff would liaise with relevant Australian and state government agencies, provide project management support and expertise, coordinate the development and maintenance of systems, lead and coordinate any research and development efforts carried out in collaboration with national (for example, the CSIRO) and international agencies (for example, the United States National Weather Services) and run an ongoing training program for flood forecasters.

Again, this option could be phased in over two or three years, reaching a full cost of approximately $7 million per year.

As discussed in Section 3.3.3 the Bureau has identified a range of contingency measures it will or has taken to manage these limitations during the 2011-12 season (within current resources).


The Flood Early Warning System (FEWS) is the international standard for national flood warning systems.

The Bureau has undertaken a pilot study to investigate the capability of FEWS to provide the framework for a future flood forecasting operation in Australia.

174 FEWS is being assessed for its

potential to replace the current operational flood forecasting system and to support the new short term streamflow forecasting services being developed. The pilot study demonstrated that FEWS was able to meet forecaster expectations for operational workflows and overall useability for flood forecasting operations.

The introduction of FEWS would enable the Bureau to leverage a suite of validated and effective operational hydrologic models and

forecasting tools developed internationally. This action would enable the Bureau to make best use of the additional hydrologists discussed under Option 2(a). The Review supports the general direction of the Bureau towards using internationally developed and supported systems and considers that this would be a beneficial early investment, if the Bureau is able to clearly demonstrate that this system is developing significantly improved outputs and/or efficiencies.

This option is estimated to cost $9 to 10 million over five years.

Priority Action 3: Formalise and standardise service levels provided to emergency services As discussed in Chapters 1 and 2, the Bureau works closely with a wide variety of organisations to deliver its products and services, and its regional offices liaise closely with state agencies.

At present, different arrangements exist in different States. Partly, this reflects differing emergency management systems and differing severe weather risks across the country. But the disparate arrangements have also evolved on the basis of local relationships and according to existing capacity. Notably, some similar services are cost-recovered whilst others are provided free of charge.

The upside of the status quo is that the Bureau’s regional services are well integrated into the varying state-based arrangements. From an operational perspective, they work well, regardless of whether there is an appetite for services beyond the Bureau’s capacity to deliver. The downside is an inconsistent approach across jurisdictions and inconsistent demands on the Bureau that may not be sustainable over the longer term. To the extent that these inconsistencies are being driven by diverging responses by state governments to community expectations, there may be a broader issue, beyond the scope of this Review, about how emergency management systems are evolving nationally.

Many key stakeholders advised that they did not have formal service level agreements (SLAs) with the Bureau (see Table 16). Given the inconsistencies that currently exist, it would be desirable to establish some guiding principles to clarify the boundary between the services to be funded by the Australian Government and those to be cost-recovered. Emergency Management Australia could provide a leadership role to determine an appropriate baseline level of service,

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in consultation with the Bureau and state emergency services. This co-ordinated approach to determining SLAs could be associated with a discussion of the broader issue identified in the previous paragraph, if governments felt there was benefit in giving Emergency Management Australia such a brief. Establishing SLAs would enable the Bureau to set clear service level boundaries. Requests for additional services beyond these boundaries would be met only on a fully cost recovered basis.

4.3 Recommended priority actions that involve strategic choices for government

Priority Action 4: Agree clear allocation of responsibilities to state and local government for flood management, with defined boundaries on the Bureau’s role The Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, the Natural Disaster Insurance Review and interviews conducted for this Review have all highlighted systemic problems with flood preparation, monitoring and warning arrangements in Australia, including the lack of clarity and inconsistencies in the roles and responsibilities of different levels of government and their agencies including the Bureau. A comprehensive solution to these problems is beyond the scope of this Review as it would require extensive consultation with and commitment from all levels of government.

However, clarifying and communicating roles and responsibilities is a necessary precondition to determining what is required of the Bureau and therefore what actions should be taken to secure the necessary capacity.

Some options for strengthening Australia’s system of flood management would entail a greater role for the Bureau (these are discussed below).

Floods are one of the most predictable and manageable natural hazards and the potential to reduce the impact by effective flood risk management is higher than for any other hazard.

176 This Review has therefore concluded

that it would be desirable for the Australian government to examine the options presented in the context of an overarching review of national flood management arrangements.

177

Even without such a review, current arrangements could be enhanced without substantial change to the Bureau’s role if there were a published national agreement that clearly delineated roles and responsibilities for flood forecasting, and the communication of warnings.

The lack of a national agreement has meant arrangements for issuing, interpreting and disseminating warnings have developed in an ad-hoc manner and there are significant regional variations in practice. Many of these functions could be delivered more consistently. This issue was raised consistently by emergency service representatives in interviews for this Review.

Stakeholder Comment

Australian Government Some Australian Government agencies expressed a desire to collaborate more closely with the Bureau. For example, Geoscience Australia suggested improvements to the Bureau’s warnings and forecasts could be achieved by initiating formal agreements and operational collaborations.

Others already work closely with the Bureau but have no formal arrangements for doing so (for example, the Australian Antarctic Division, which relies heavily on the Bureau for the safety of its day to day operational activities in the Antarctic but also provides significant logistical support to the Bureau’s observational network).

Some have recently formalised their arrangements (for example Defence) with cost-recovery in place.

State government agencies Information provided by the Bureau suggests current SLAs with state emergency management agencies are often patchy, ad-hoc and differ across jurisdictions:

• some states had no agreements in place, others had many;

• some types of extreme events were better covered than others;

• many of the agreements had not been updated for more than ten years.

Local councils Growing number of requests for SLAs, particularly from Queensland.

Others

The Australian Broadcasting Commission (ABC) suggested there would be benefit from more structured collaboration with the Bureau to improve the media handling of extreme events by both organisations.

175 This is driven partly by the ABC’s role as

emergency services broadcaster and its growing appetite for content for its online and broadcast news channels.

Table 16 - Stakeholder comments on formal agreements

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There is evidence of confusion regarding who should be issuing warnings and some parties expressed concern that this was exposing them to the risk of legal action.

(a) As a minimum:

i. Agree national standards for operation of flood monitoring networks and vest responsibility in fewer agencies

The Bureau has suggested that nationally consistent SLAs between the Bureau and all river height monitoring agencies may deliver improvements in this area without additional investment by the Australian Government. Consideration should also be given by the States to vesting responsibility for river height monitoring with fewer agencies, ideally those with significant scale and expertise (such as state water agencies). Alternatively, the Bureau itself could be responsible for operating river height monitoring networks, subject to appropriate resourcing.

ii. Clarify roles and responsibilities for issuing flash flood warnings

Section 3.2.2 highlighted the challenges associated with improving flash flooding warning arrangements. The immediate priority should be to clarify roles and responsibilities for issuing flash flood warnings. These arrangements should be complemented by the development of toolkits to assist those responsible for issuing the warnings.

This is a complex task that cannot be completed in the short term and would exceed the Bureau’s current capacity to lead this work. If the Bureau was to be assigned this task, it would require appropriate resourcing, along with an agreed whole of government roadmap to guide its actions. This work would need to include an improved approach to public education, particularly in relation to the short lead times involved and the sporadic nature of flash flooding. This would be appropriately delivered by state and local governments, who have an in-depth understanding of local flash flood risk and the specific needs of regions and communities.

In determining roles and responsibilities for flash flood warnings, consideration should be given to the potential leadership role of the Bureau. As highlighted in Section 3.2.2, given the short-fuse nature of flash floods, the Bureau may be best placed to issue these warnings. Various approaches are used internationally. For example, in the United States, flash flood warnings are communicated by the National Oceanic and

Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service via its Weather Radio network to a national Emergency Alert System.

178 Rapid dissemination of

forecasts and warnings is seen as critical, and up to the minute warnings can be provided. Receivers can be set to provide an alarm even when turned off.

It is recommended that a determination on who is responsible for issuing and disseminating flash flooding warnings be included as part of any broader consideration of roles and responsibilities for flood management between jurisdictions.

(b) In addition to the actions described above, either:

i. Focus the Bureau’s role on data management and divest responsibility for flood monitoring from the Bureau

A number of stakeholders raised concerns relating to gaps in the flood monitoring network (see Section 3.2).

179

The Bureau also considers its river height observations network as the weakest link in its service chain, as it cannot guarantee standards of service due to reliance on third parties for data. Many of these third parties are unable to service monitoring equipment on a 24/7 basis, lack the funds or expertise to maintain or upgrade the stations adequately, or are unable to supply data to the standard required by the Bureau.

In addition, many areas lack effective flood monitoring systems, noting that river gauges installed for water management purposes may not be appropriately located for flood warning. Under current arrangements, this responsibility rests primarily with state governments. One option for resolving this situation would be to vest responsibility for all gauging systems with the relevant state authorities, with the Bureau retaining its current role of data assimilation and interpretation. It would remain a state government responsibility to make the necessary investment to upgrade flood monitoring networks and provide for reliable operations.

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ii. Expand and consolidate the Bureau’s role in flood management

Given the weaknesses of the current arrangements for flood management, the Australian Government faces a threshold question about the extent to which its own agencies should play a greater role in flood management in the future. This greater role may be justifiable on national interest grounds though it runs against the established division of responsibilities between the three levels of government.

If it is accepted that there is benefit in a greater level of coordination at a national level, there are a number of options for strengthening the Bureau’s contribution:

reorganise the Bureau’s operations (including the introduction of a new Flood Operations Centre) and modernise its forecasting systems;

enhance the Bureau’s flood monitoring network;

strengthen the collection and provision of data by third parties; and

improve the national information base for flood warnings.

These suggested enhancements are discussed below, and the cost implications as presented by the Bureau are provided in Table 17.


As one option, the Bureau has proposed a reorganisation of its flood related services and the introduction of a new Flood Operations Centre. While not endorsing the specifics of this proposal, this Review considers it to be worthy of further consideration and cost benefit analysis in the context of the likely future demands on the Australian Government to fund flood recovery expenditure.

These changes would enable the Bureau to sustain a continuous 24/7 service capable of managing multiple floods when required. This would mean that the Bureau could handle a greater number of forecast sites, improve flash-flood advice and warnings, and extend forecast lead times on large rivers. Adding specialist hydro-meteorologists to the service would enhance the Bureau’s ability to quantify and forecast rainfall rates and locations. Increasing the number of data specialists and ICT specialists would result in more stable data supply and system integrity. The Bureau argues that these changes would yield significant benefits in forecasting skill and a much-needed lift in service resilience.

This option is estimated by the Bureau to cost $6

million per year.

Option 4(b)ii.(a). Option 4(b)ii.(b). Option 4(b)ii.(c). Option 4(b)ii.(d).

Outline Re-organising operations (including a new Flood Operations Centre)

Enhancing the Bureau’s flood monitoring network

Strengthening the collection and provision of flood data by third parties

Improving the information base for flood warnings

People 31 additional staff.

Flood Operations Centre established.

Regional offices and Head Office strengthened.

24/7 operations.

Builds on option (a) with 11 additional technical staff.

3 new staff.

To be determined.

Systems Modernise flood forecasting system

More real-time data.

More rainfall gauges.

20 additional basins serviced.

Funding program to improve the coverage, accuracy and reliability of data supplied to Bureau by 3rd parties

Improved website presentation, linked to.

Geoscience Australia portal for quality flood risk maps.

Bureau estimates of additional costs (operating and capital)

$6 million/year $5 million/year $2.5 million/year This option has not been costed.

Table 17 - Cost implications of the options relating to the potential expansion of the Bureau's role in flood management

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This option would involve additional capital funding to make the following enhancements to the Bureau’s own monitoring networks. For example:

equip existing automatic rainfall gauges with real-time telemetry (currently only used for climate analysis purposes and downloaded monthly after manual intervention).

augment the Bureau’s ALERT real-time rainfall gauge network by adding additional stations.

upgrade the communications systems for all ALERT base stations, to enhance their resilience and allow direct ingestion of data into the internet.

This option would cost in the order of $5 million per year.


As highlighted in Section 3.3.2, the Bureau is heavily reliant on the supply of data from third parties for its flood forecasting and warning function. This option would involve a funding program to support the establishment or extension of flood monitoring networks operated by state and local governments. It would assist in ensuring a steady improvement in the coverage, accuracy and reliability of real-time data from third parties.

The Bureau suggests that funding of $2.5 million per year would have sufficient impact.

(d) Improving the information base for flood warnings

A key theme emerging from stakeholder consultations has been the desire for more information on potential floods that is readily understood and relevant to their local area.

180

Currently the Bureau is responsible for predicting river height levels in certain catchments, but to understand the flood impact, communities need to know the extent of inundation associated with a particular river height relative to their individual property or infrastructure. Under current arrangements, this step is the responsibility of the state or local government. However the ability to provide this interpretation varies and it represents a significant challenge for smaller local authorities. Often, those charged with interpreting the data simply do not have the resources or skills to do so

181 and in some cases the Bureau’s information is

simply relayed to communities without any local interpretation or ‘value-add’.

The decision by the Australian Government to establish a flood risk mapping information portal will greatly assist in addressing this requirement for improved flood risk information. Providing improved access to such information will also enhance the local relevance of the Bureau’s forecasts and warnings, and may assist in helping communities make more informed decisions when facing a possible flood event.

Ultimately, this flood risk information could also be used by flood forecasters in real-time to predict flood impacts during a flood event. With this longer term goal in mind, a collaborative approach between Geoscience Australia and the Bureau to deliver the information portal (similar to the arrangements in place for Tsunami) is worthy of consideration. Under this approach Geoscience Australia would be responsible for static flood risk mapping, and the Bureau would continue to be responsible for dynamic modelling based on weather conditions and river height data and for issuing warnings during flood events.

Priority Action 5: Focus the Bureau’s evolving environmental information role on natural hazards in the first instance As discussed in Section 1.5, the Bureau has commenced scoping and developing its environmental information role. This project is being managed in a phased approach in collaboration with the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Populations and Communities at a cost of $18 million over four years (i.e. four years to scope and develop the national framework, with implementation to begin after that subject to the provision of identified additional resources).

182

The Bureau sees the addition of this new function as beneficial – enabling it to develop new capabilities in information management and communication, with spin offs for the way in which the Bureau delivers public weather services and potentially relieving some of the pressures identified in Chapter 3. While this is a long term project which may have considerable benefits to the management of environmental risk in the long term, it is also potentially massive in scope. There is a risk that expectations may exceed what the Bureau can reasonably deliver, and that the expanded scope is not fully funded.

The target of 2014 for an expanded ‘environmental intelligence’ role, as articulated in the Bureau’s Strategic Plan,

183 seems ambitious in

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light of the many pressures that the Bureau is experiencing. A narrower focus on natural hazards in the first instance, or a reconsideration of the pace of these developments, may result in a higher return on investment in the short term. To assist this focus, the government may also wish to strengthen the Bureau’s mandate to provide critical services so that these are required to be given first priority.

The Review notes that the UK Met Office is “leading an initiative to bring together a number of government agencies which between them cover a wide range of environmental responsibilities …This Natural Hazard Partnership is still in its infancy but we are already seeing significant benefits to be gained from closer integration, and the wider utilisation of the Met Office’s 24/7 operational delivery capability and its expertise in pulling science through to market.”

184

An approach along these lines would align well with the general trend in emergency service provision towards an all hazards approach and is anticipated in Bureau initiatives such as the proposed introduction of an integrated all-hazards decision system (see Option 26(c)). If the Australian government considered it appropriate for the Bureau to play a stronger national role in flood management, it would be an early candidate for such a development. Similarly, the development of a heatwave product as recommended in the PricewaterhouseCoopers Report

185 might be an early priority.

Priority Action 6: Explore opportunities to re-phase investments in large scale projects and programs such as the Strategic Radar Enhancement and NexGen Forecast and Warning System Projects and the Bureau’s Improving Water Information Program The Review is conscious that its findings are being presented during a period of fiscal restraint and that any new spending initiatives may have to be offset by savings in other areas. Some potential offsets are discussed under the heading below ‘Options that could provide savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau’. However the government may also wish to consider whether, in light of the findings of this Review, its investments in large scale projects might be re-phased in order to free up funds in the short term.

(a) Strategic Radar Enhancement Project In 2009-10 the Australian Government made a strategic decision to fund an expansion of the

Bureau’s radar network.186

The Strategic Radar Enhancement Project comprises funding of $48 million over seven years to research, develop and install four new radars and rainfall gauge instrumentation around the radars. To date, approximately $18 million has been spent, and about $10 million has been budgeted for the project for the 2012-13 financial year.

187

Of the four radars, the Wollongong installation is complete, while the Bureau’s website indicates that the Hobart and Mount Isa radars are anticipated to be in service by the first and second quarter of 2012 respectively. The North Central Coast Northern Territory radar is not due for delivery until the fourth quarter 2013.

The Review received very positive feedback regarding the Bureau’s radars and its radar views are amongst the most heavily visited pages on the Bureau’s website. The Bureau’s forecasters use radar images to track storms and estimate rainfall. However given a tight budget environment and the need to re-assess priorities, it may be possible to re-phase the remainder of this project, freeing up resources that could be used to implement recommended Priority Actions 1 and 2.

(b) NexGen Forecasting and Warning System Project

A similar re-phasing of the national roll-out of the NexGen FWS investment could be undertaken. This project also announced in 2009-10 comprises funding of $30.5 million over five years.

To date, the NexGen FWS has been implemented in Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia, Tasmania and the Australian Capital Territory. Implementation for the Northern Territory, Western Australia and Queensland is underway and the Bureau plans to complete the roll-out by 2014.

188

As with the radars, this project has been well received by users of the Bureau’s public weather services. However if the government now considers that the Bureau’s priorities should be realigned in light of the findings of this Review, it may be preferable to redeploy some of the resources involved in the implementation of the NexGen FWS to supplement frontline staffing numbers.

(c) Improving Water Information Program

A similar re-phasing of the Bureau’s Improving Water Information Program could be undertaken. This program was announced in 2007 and provided $450 million in funding over 10 years.

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As discussed in Section 3.1.2, the Bureau has been able to use some of the new resources (principally hydrologists) gained through this program to support its flood warning and forecasting operations during flood events.

Further redirection of staffing for this purpose could be undertaken in order to supplement the Bureau’s frontline flood warning and forecasting staffing numbers.

4.4 Recommended priority actions for the Bureau to support consistent service standards and build organisational resilience

Priority Action 7: Complete workforce planning project and succession plans as a matter of urgency It is to the credit of the current Director of the Bureau that he took steps to create a fully integrated professional human resources function within the corporate services branch. However, the legacy of past decisions has left the Bureau vulnerable to the loss of key operational capacity in the very short term. This Review has highlighted that an over-riding priority should be to build capacity to respond to protracted severe weather events.

While the Bureau has initiated a workforce planning project and was able to provide the Review with its Workforce Planning Strategy for 2010, this document did not identify any actions past 2010. Without the ongoing commitment to such a plan, it is not possible for the Bureau to demonstrate that it will be able to acquire the necessary additional frontline resources even if provided with additional funding to do so. The Review considers it essential that the Bureau accelerate the development and implementation of a longer term strategy. This strategy should include a meaningful succession plan for all frontline weather services positions, taking into account any new positions created as a consequence of the adoption of options presented in this Review.

Priority Action 8: Firm up approval processes and funding for any departures from provision of the Basic Product Set As discussed in Section 1.5, the Bureau has defined its Basic Product Set and developed a guiding policy for determining which services should be

cost-recovered and how these costs should be calculated. However, implementation of the guidelines is left to the discretion of its managers.

Without formal processes to enforce these arrangements, it appears that there have been many departures from the Basic Product Set which are now built in to customary practice.

It is recommended that the Bureau develop clear processes for any agreement to deliver services that fall outside of its Basic Product Set and to ensure they are appropriately funded. The UK MetOffice experience may provide some useful guidance for this approach. This is topical in the context of the proposals in the recent PricewaterhouseCoopers report Protecting human health and safety during severe and extreme heat events: A national framework.

189 The report

demonstrates that there would be significant benefit from implementing a national framework for heat events, but this would require expenditure on the part of the Bureau to develop and implement a national heat event warning system.

While reducing the number of voluntary ‘value-adds’ at the frontline will be a challenging undertaking, it may create some headroom to restore training hours particularly in relation to preparation for the provision of extreme weather event services. The experience of the United States National Weather Service in implementing an analogous process indicates it will most likely take considerable time and diligent oversight to make this part of organisational culture. Eliminating legacy arrangements and inconsistencies in practice between offices may prove challenging, particularly where local stakeholders could view the change as a degradation in the services provided.

190

Priority Action 9: Ensure the Bureau puts in place necessary planning and governance arrangements to develop its bid for capital funding to maintain its critical supercomputing capacity The Bureau is facing significant investment requirements in both storage and computing capacity (even on a standstill basis). The Bureau’s current supercomputer was acquired on the basis of it having a five year useful operating life, which ends in 2014. The limits of its current supercomputer will be reached in 2012-13 when Version 2 of the ACCESS Prediction System (APS 2) goes operational. No improvements in resolution or model complexity will be possible during the

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final 2 years of the current system’s five year lifetime (2013-2014).

Irrespective of whether the decision is made to replace the Bureau’s current supercomputer on a like-for-like basis (to maintain its current supercomputing capacity), or upgrade it to enable enhancements to its extreme and seasonal weather services (see Option 28), the Bureau is required to advise the Department of Finance and Deregulation of its investment intentions by July 2012 in order to commence a Two-Pass ICT investment proposal process. This would ensure the proposal would meet deadlines for consideration in the 2013-2014 Budget.

Given the criticality of the Bureau’s supercomputer in underpinning the delivery of all of its services, developing a strong business case and governance arrangements for this proposal should be a top priority for the Bureau Executive. It is vital that planning for this major project commences as soon as possible, and that the Bureau engages the expertise of the Department of Finance and Deregulation to assist with the development of its business case. It is possible that entirely different approaches are available for accessing the necessary supercomputing capacity. For example, distributed processing and cloud computing are transforming capital investment decisions in many sectors. It would be desirable for the Bureau to engage some independent IT expertise to survey the options before committing to a direct replacement of the current model. Related government policies, such as the National Collaborative Research Infrastructure Strategy (NCRIS) and Australian Government Information Management Office guidelines will also need to be taken into account.

The Bureau estimates that replacing the current supercomputer, like-for-like, will cost $38 million (including $14 million for a secondary data centre). Option 27 describes the potential enhancements that could be made to the Bureau’s supercomputing capacity and the benefits and possible costs of those enhancements.

Priority Action 10: Extend ICT governance arrangements to all applications and subject in-house development to rigorous approval processes As discussed in Section 2.3.4, the Bureau acknowledges that although it has made progress in rationalising and retiring ICT applications, there is scope for further work. The Review encourages further rationalisation by the Bureau of its ICT

applications as this may deliver operating efficiencies, lower IT support costs and reduce risk.

The Review also encourages the Bureau to continue, where possible, to use commercial off-the-shelf or open-source products rather than developing these in-house. International collaboration has been of benefit and the Review encourages the Bureau to continue to take advantage of applications developed and tested elsewhere. Any in-house development of applications should be clearly justified in terms of identified customer requirements and measurable efficiency gains and subject to rigorous approval processes which include costing of ongoing support requirements.

Finally, introduction of any new technology platform or application should be accompanied by a formal business integration plan that is clear about the resources required to implement the solution and the business process changes that will be required in order to capture the expected benefits.

Priority Action 11: Review disaster recovery and business continuity plans The Bureau has made recent improvements to its disaster recovery and business continuity arrangements. Its 2010-11 Annual Report states:

“The Bureau has strengthened its business continuity management through the appointment of a business continuity manager and the development of a three-year business continuity management program plan. This will further enhance the current business continuity arrangements with the intention of achieving an integrated enterprise business continuity management system (BCMS) that is mature and sustainable. The vision for the BCMS strategic plan is: ‘To develop a nationally recognised business continuity management program that improves the resilience of the Bureau and allows effective and efficient management of business disruption.

“In support of this vision the Bureau has adopted a new Business Continuity Management Policy which sets out the Bureau’s resilience commitment and clearly identifies responsibilities and accountabilities for business continuity across the organisation. […] Early goals are to improve the use of data collected, provide more robust validation processes, improve crisis management and crisis communication processes and develop a more robust supply chain.”

191

The Bureau recognises that comprehensive contingency and disaster recovery planning is an

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important part of its work, as peak system loads occur when system operation is most critical: during severe events.

192 This Review agrees with

the Bureau’s concerns regarding the robustness of its current arrangements, noting the two recent fire incidents (see Section 2.3.2).

The Review notes that the Bureau has proposed measures to improve its supercomputing disaster recovery ability through the introduction of a Disaster Recovery Centre, which is discussed in Option 27. The Review recommends the Bureau’s disaster and business continuity plans be reviewed to identify and mitigate any other potential risks to business continuity.

Priority Action 12: Start a project to introduce organisational process thinking with a view to standardising processes and product specifications As identified by the Process Review commissioned by the Bureau (see Section 2.2), the Bureau’s services rely on the individual knowledge and capacity of its workforce, rather than systematised and documented processes. While local innovation may meet an expressed customer need, it can result in heightened stakeholder expectations for services that are not adequately resourced as well as a lack of consistency across regions.

Developing an orientation towards efficient, reliable and repeatable processes would help the Bureau manage these and other risks that are evident on a number of fronts. Not only would this reduce the risk of incurring unbudgeted costs from new initiatives but it may also help the Bureau identify operational efficiencies that have so far been elusive.

Priority Action 13: Focus leadership practices to re-orient culture away from customisation and experimentation and towards reliable, efficient and consistent documented processes This option is complementary to Option 12. As discussed in Section 2.1.2, the Bureau has a strong culture of individualism and innovation, which has resulted in divergent and potentially inefficient practices at the regional level in the development of products to meet perceived local needs. In addition the commendable culture of scientific excellence can also result in ‘supplier push’ where the Bureau pursues product improvements without a demonstrated customer need or explicit government mandate. Participation in international networks has a compounding effect as Bureau staff are constantly aware of the leading edge developments around the globe.

The Bureau would benefit from agreement, at the Senior Executive level, on a high level process systems model that defines and governs all its processes. This will enable the Bureau to re-orientate its culture from customisation and experimentation towards reliable, efficient and consistent documented processes.

Moving to a more disciplined process orientation will reap benefits in terms of risk management and cost control but it does represent a significant cultural challenge. Comments from the international peer reviewers reinforced that this challenge is not unique to the Bureau. Strong leadership will be required to make these changes without undermining the positive aspects of a culture that is committed to public service and takes pride in the quality of its offerings.

4.5 Options that could provide savings, enhance efficiency or increase revenue for the Bureau

Option 14: Increased automation and outsourcing of observations Like other meteorological organisations internationally, the Bureau has been reconfiguring its observations network in recent years and increasingly using automated observing systems to obtain its weather data. As described in Section 2.3.1, the United Kingdom and Canada rely much more heavily on automated observations. Canada supplements its automated surface observing program through partnered and volunteer observations. Canada also uses contractors for most of its upper air observation program, which it has resulted in cost savings.

Potentially the Bureau could also achieve savings from the use of contractors for obtaining weather observations. At present the Bureau has 58 staffed stations and allocates approximately $27 million to employee expenses for meteorological observations. Any steps to reduce the number of locations out of which the Bureau operates would have to be taken judiciously given local sensitivities. There are also practical matters to be considered such as provision for ongoing maintenance of automated stations and training and occupational health and safety of outsourced service providers.

Option 15: Explore options to limit forecaster intervention in site-specific web forecasts In 2010 the UK Met Office took the bold step of removing forecaster intervention for their site-

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specific web forecasts, thus enabling it to increase from 450 to 5000 sites.

193 It found that despite

concerns raised at the time, any deterioration in quality through lack of human intervention was more than compensated by the benefit of rapid processing from raw data to published forecast.

194

The United States is also moving in this direction, and has implemented a long term strategy to refocus the expertise of field forecasters on the provision of impact-based decision support services.

195

The Review considers that the Bureau should be moving in exactly the same direction as it takes full advantage of its investment in NexGen FWS and associated developments. As described in Section 1.3.1, the Bureau’s NexGen FWS will deliver seven day forecasts across all of Australia, although current practice still involves substantial forecaster intervention. As experience with the system matures, it should be possible to avoid editing site-specific web forecasts.

This option is consistent with the Bureau’s longer term vision for the role of forecasters to focus more on liaison and interpretation.

Option 16: Centralise media services and establish protocols for media activity As discussed in Chapters 1 and 2, media management is a major pressure on the Bureau’s regional office staff. Stakeholders also commented on the varying degrees of professionalism of Bureau staff who provide media content. The media play a critical role in disseminating warnings and advice but also demand more general news content.

During an extreme event, the Bureau is regularly contacted by many different media outlets, including different arms of the ABC, resulting in the Bureau’s operational staff having to provide a variety of media resources on top of their technical duties.

196 The development of memoranda of

understanding with the ABC and other media should enable a more coordinated approach.

Centralising the Bureau’s media services within its Head Office would free up technical staff in the regions for liaison with state emergency agencies during extreme weather events, and to provide technical briefings to state emergency committees. This would also enable the Bureau to devolve more of its media interactions to these bodies.

In a centralised model, specialist media staff would manage the Bureau’s media interactions and communicate the Bureau’s key messages, based

on the situational advice of regional technical staff. It is understood that the Bureau has adopted this model for handling tsunami, with standard operating procedures developed to outline the functions of technical staff. The benefits of in-house media staff were recognised by the international meteorological experts, ‘in-house specialist media staff have demonstrated considerable value for the United States National Weather Service not only during extreme weather events but also in orchestrating media events to inform the public and Congress about seasonal hurricane and flood outlooks’.

197 These media

specialists have also provided training to United States National Weather Service experts on how to stay on message when responding to the media.

198

Option 17: Foster private sector service providers who can offer tailored services or broadcast high quality presentation of general purpose weather information The Bureau could reduce its role in providing tailored services by encouraging private sector service providers to develop value-added products. To an extent this is already in train with a number of providers drawing on raw data via the Bureau’s restricted access website and repackaging it for specific customers or for the general public. For example, the Bureau’s bandwidth usage data showed that private providers such as weather.com.au Pty Ltd and The Weather Channel were high users of the Bureau’s online information.

199

The Bureau’s website is a popular and heavily used source of weather information, receiving 33 billion hits in the year 2001-11.

200 While many

stakeholders noted significant improvements to the website in recent years, the Review has identified that there is demand for further effort to improve its overall presentation, accessibility (including easier and quicker navigation) and content, and to ensure information is relevant and up to date.

To an extent this demand could be met by other service providers. The Bureau’s website could then be focussed on the basic product set and high priority public information such as warnings. Redirecting day-to-day traffic to other websites reduce pressure on the Bureau to invest further in high quality graphics and customisable web pages and at the same time would reduce demand for bandwidth and hence lower communications costs for the Bureau in the future.

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Option 18: Review level of investment in research activities to free up budget and reduce pressure on computing capacity The Bureau’s research program currently employs 150 staff, 79 of whom are core-funded and the remainder are externally-funded. The Bureau works in partnership with CSIRO through the Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research (CAWCR) to deliver its research. It argues this model enables it to access a wider range of research skills, make more efficient use of resources and develop more effective research relationships with government, industry and other research providers.

201

Nevertheless, it would be possible to narrow the scope of its research to immediate operational requirements rather than into leading edge research and the in-house development of new models. This approach would focus resources on delivering yield from existing products (such as ACCESS, NexGen FWS). It is likely to free up space at the Head Office and reduce supercomputer load.

A reduction in research effort could result in savings from $750,000 up to $12 million per year for the complete withdrawal from core funded research initiatives. This extreme option may not be feasible. Even a total dependence on academic or international research would require effort by the Bureau to transfer that knowledge and technology from research to operations. Necessary expenditure might be deferred but it is likely that additional investment would have to be made in future years to meet emerging customer requirements and maintain scientific currency.

As a potential way forward, the Bureau could systematically identify the level of maturity of its research projects. This would assist in focussing resources on those research projects that are likely to yield the most benefits in the near future. This is the approach being taken by the United States National Weather Service’s Hydrology Program.

This approach would also require the Bureau to review its involvement in externally-funded projects to ensure that these projects align with its core priorities.

Option 19: Review and rebalance relative investment in long term climate modelling and medium-term seasonal outlook The Bureau produces seasonal forecasts under its general climate information program. In 2010-11 the total expenditure on this entire program was

$16 million of which $4.1 million was externally funded. In addition, the Bureau spent approximately $7.9 million on research into climate variability and change, of which $5.7 million was externally funded. Of the total expenditure for this program, the Bureau spent $3.3 million on seasonal forecasting of which $1.7 million was externally funded.

While the high level of external funding for climate research reflects its importance from a policy perspective, this research does not have such direct relevance to the day-to-day decision-making of the Bureau’s main customers. More than one stakeholder pointed out to the Review that the seasonal outlook gives them the strongest signal about the need to adapt to climate change and that they valued this information more highly than information about the range of scenarios that could eventuate in the longer term. This suggests there may be a customer benefit from rebalancing the Bureau’s investment of resources in these two areas, although it would not on its own be sufficient to fund a major upgrade to seasonal forecasting.

Option 20: Cease or reduce the Ionospheric Prediction Service or offer it as a commercial service The Ionospheric Prediction Service (IPS) function was transferred to the Bureau in 2007-08. It involves the collection and analysis of data related to national radio propagation and the provision of space weather advisory and forecast services. The IPS operates some observing infrastructure and has an analysis and prediction function.

Bureau data indicates that the IPS has a very small number of customers relative to its other services and that a high proportion (58%) is from overseas (see Diagram 17 and Table 18).

Diagram 17 - Ionospheric Prediction Service Database Customers by Sector 2009-10

Defence

Australian Government

State Government

Educational/Special interest

Private

International

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Table 18 - Ionospheric Prediction Service Customer Database by Customer Type

Customer type Number

HF radio users 419

Radio communications consultants

92

Geophysical and space 8

Scientific 76

Other 97

Total 692

Potentially the Bureau could meet the needs of its domestic customers by repackaging data sourced from overseas and cease its analysis and prediction services. The observations function could continue (as they contribute to meeting international obligations) and be integrated within the Bureau’s Composite Observing System. This option could save up to approximately $3 million per year.

This option seems reasonable and warrants further consideration. It is a stand-alone function that does not interact with other parts of the Bureau. There does not appear to be any general public value in this service, analogous to weather information. It is worth noting that the Bureau currently has some contractual obligations which may prevent an immediate exit from this area.

Option 21: Apply a consistent cost-recovery model to all services delivered to state and territory fire agencies An international benchmarking study indicated that, on average, cost-recovery accounted for approximately 20% of revenue for the agencies examined.

202 As discussed in Section 2.4.1, the

Bureau has steadily increased its level of external funding to the point where it is meeting this benchmark. The study reinforces that worldwide, weather information services are funded primarily as public goods. Nevertheless there are strong arguments for confining direct public funding to the basic product set and taking a more rigorous approach to cost-recovery for other products.

Variations between jurisdictions in delivering services to state and territory fire agencies were highlighted in Section 1.1.6. As a general rule, the Bureau provides enhanced weather information to fire agencies about potential and actual wildfires as part of core services. Weather information required for prescribed burning (a major wildfire risk mitigation activity) must be purchased by agencies as an additional service. In New South Wales and Victoria the Bureau provides embedded meteorologists as a cost-recovered service, with

similar arrangements proposed for Western Australia.

The Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council advised that it is working with the Bureau to develop a national set of fire weather products.

203 This work will assist in

determining which services should be provided on a cost-recovery basis.

A more consistent approach to cost-recovery from state and territory fire agencies should:

provide greater equity across jurisdictions; and

reduce duplication of effort within the Bureau and enable its regional staff to better respond to requests for services outside the standard product set.

On Bureau estimates, this option would result in a potential increase in the Bureau’s revenue of up to $1.5 million per annum.

Option 22: Explore options to obtain revenue from advertising on the Bureau’s website The opportunity to obtain revenue from advertising on the Bureau’s website was considered by previous reviews in 1997 and 2008. This option was rejected in the past in the absence of whole-of-government guidelines. However, there have been rapid changes in the online environment generally and it may be that at this juncture advertising is more acceptable than when the matter was last considered.

Since 2008 annual hits to the Bureau’s website have increased from 9 billion hits to approximately 33 billion, making it one of the most frequently visited websites in Australia. Over the same period there has been a rapid evolution of online business models including both free and subscription news services. Arguably there is greater public acceptance of advertising as part of the online ‘contract’ and comparable meteorological agencies internationally do carry advertising on their websites – including the UK MetOffice, Canadian Weather Office and New Zealand Metservice.

Given the budgetary challenges faced by the Bureau in meeting growing demand for all its services, this Review considers it would be worth revisiting the question. Desirably, this examination would be in the context of whole-of-government policy settings for website advertising. However, the characteristics of the Bureau’s online presence suggest that it is likely to be the pace-setter in developing such policies.

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Option 23: Phase out seasonal prediction development and modelling and rely on products generated elsewhere Under this option, the Bureau would cease its seasonal prediction development and modelling role. Coupled climate models operating internationally would be sourced to provide seasonal outlooks. The Bureau has advised that some developing nations are taking this route.

Weaknesses with this option include:

All developed countries with significant modelling capabilities are in the northern hemisphere, where model development priorities focus on processes that target increased skill in the northern mid-latitudes (Europe and the United States). For example, priorities in Europe are on simulating processes that are dominated by the Atlantic Ocean, whereas for Australia processes in the Indian Ocean are more important.

Australia could lose its expertise in seasonal forecasting in the southern hemisphere and it will be left in a poor position when interpreting and providing advice, with consequent risks in terms of the robustness and reliability of services. For example, in the south-west of Western Australia, there has been an observed decline in rainfall over the past 30 years compared to the long term record. The reasons for this decline are not completely clear but are likely to be unique to the southern hemisphere.

204

It would require the Bureau to give up its aspiration for the future to introduce a seamless modelling approach, which provides forecasts of the ocean-atmosphere-land system from a few hours ahead through to beyond a century.

This option would provide savings of approximately $2.7 million per year. Whilst this option may provide savings in the short to medium term, if it is decided at a later date that in-house seasonal forecasting capacity is required, it would be costly to regain parity with international standards in a short period of time.


(a) Identifying potential offsets from government beneficiaries of any additional investment in seasonal forecasting services

Given the high costs of making any significant change in its seasonal forecasting models, the

Bureau should investigate and identify opportunities to offset its investment in these services where other government agencies are likely to benefit. The Review identified examples of Australian and state government agencies that derived great benefit from the Bureau’s free seasonal forecasting products and services. Often, these agencies tailor Bureau outputs or assimilate them into other models to service state-based stakeholders, such as farmers.

205

Assisting the community and businesses anticipate and manage risk may benefit government agencies by reducing expenditure on measures such as drought assistance or recovery from the impact of anticipated severe weather events such as floods and fires.

(b) Undertaking market research to establish industry willingness to pay for enhanced seasonal forecasting services

Seasonal forecasting services are about 50% cost-recovered, indicating some willingness to pay on the part of stakeholders who are calling for significant improvements in seasonal forecasting products.

It has been estimated that climate variability can account for as much as five per cent of gross domestic product variability, which equates to about $58 billion per year averaged over the last decade.

206 This illustrates Australia’s sensitivity to

intra-seasonal (a few weeks) and intra-annual (several seasons to a year) changes in climate. It is not clear how much downside variation could be avoided with the benefit of more accurate or localised seasonal forecasts, but the orders of magnitude suggest that even a small improvement could yield tens of millions of dollars.

A wide variety of sectors would benefit from more accurate seasonal prediction, including, but not limited to, the agricultural and emergency services sectors. These benefits include the potential for increased profitability, reduced risk, and reduced income and cash-flow variability.

207

The Bureau should undertake a thorough investigation of key beneficiaries’ willingness to pay for or contribute to improved services before developing any investment proposal for consideration by government.

Option 25: Lower yield options identified by the Bureau The Bureau has identified a number of other savings options for consideration, noting that they all entail some implementation risk. Individually,

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these options are not likely to result in significant savings. Combined, however, they could result in savings upwards of $2 million per year.


The Bureau currently operates voluntary remote postings for Willis Island and Giles Meteorological Offices. Four staff are rotated through each site at intervals of three months to one year. Staff are paid a significant loading due to the hardship experienced. Logistical support for the stations is expensive.

There are a number of potential options here, from (i) automating observations at these sites, ceasing observation of some parameters, and running the stations without staff present to (ii) reducing the number of staff at each site. These options would result in savings in the order of $0.5 to $1 million per year.

Factors to consider include:

the potential reduction in the reliability of some observations, reduction or cessation of upper air observations; and

potential reduction in observations coverage with potential impacts on accuracy of forecasts.

These observing stations are part of the Global Upper Air Network, a climate reference network recognised by WMO. The data produced at these stations is used by the international community to monitor the global climate. Ceasing these observations may result in a negative response from WMO member states that rely on the data. Current technology would not allow an automated upper air program at Willis Island.


The Bureau operates a training centre in Victoria which provides observer and technician trainees training in the launching of weather balloons, manual observations and the use and maintenance of radars. Training is provided to approximately 20 trainees per year in addition to in-service training provided to existing staff.

This facility could be closed and training run out of Head Office, with hands-on training provided at operational sites. This approach would reduce the Bureau’s flexibility in scheduling training and the availability of equipment for use by trainees. However, it would result in savings of approximately $870,000 per year.


The Bureau currently operates meteorological offices at Townsville and Rockhampton, with each office employing a mixture of meteorologists and observing staff. Other Bureau regions have consolidated their operations into a single capital city office. It would be equally feasible to move forecasting functions from the Rockhampton and Townsville offices to Brisbane. This would allow the meteorological staff to be redeployed, for example into an expanded severe weather team.

This change is unlikely to be welcomed by north Queensland stakeholders and could give rise to concerns that services to northern Queensland were being reduced. However, adoption of this proposal could produce savings of approximately six staff plus property costs or $600,000 per year.

(d) Outsource the Bureau’s library This function is not as significant to core business as was the case 10 to 20 years ago. It is predominately used by CAWCR. This option could save the Bureau approximately $300,000 per year.

4.6 Options to provide enhanced services where there is proven demand

Option 26: Additional frontline meteorologists and specialised centres and systems The options provided here build on Priority Action 1 which directly addresses the risk of an over-reliance on a small number of key staff in the regions. These supplementary measures would deliver a step change in the Bureau’s level of capability in anticipation of demand driven by the rising trend in frequency and impact of severe weather events across Australia.

The benefits and implications of these options are described below and are summarised in Table 19.

(a) Enhanced severe weather units This option would increase the number of severe weather experts in each region, from two to four or five (depending on the region), resulting in an increase in the total number from 14 to 31. This option would improve the ability of the Bureau to handle events on multiple fronts and to engage proactively in planning and preparedness activities at the regional level. These staff would manage more complex severe weather events (for example, fire weather) and provide additional warnings and liaison capability with the emergency service sector.

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(b) National extreme weather centres This option creates four national extreme weather centres (for tropical cyclones, fire, severe storms and marine weather) at an estimated additional cost of $3.6 million per year. The purpose of these centres would be to provide greater specialist capacity to handle extreme events, but also to develop service improvements for each of these hazards to meet rising expectations from the community about the accuracy and detail of extreme weather information. Specialist meteorologists would be focused on implementing new innovations in operations, conducting competency training and assessment, and reviewing performance of forecast and warning services in their speciality areas. While the Bureau currently has three virtual Tropical Cyclone Warning Centres which are employed as needed, this option would provide a permanent Warning Centre.


As described in Chapter 2, the Bureau is rolling out the NexGen FWS which will provide seven day forecasts for 650 locations across Australia. This system, however, it is not designed to handle short lead-time severe weather events. The Bureau has developed separate systems to provide warning and analysis services for Tropical Cyclones, severe thunderstorms, and fire weather. Integrating these systems will require modifying the underlying infrastructure onto a single platform, known as an all-hazards system.

The Bureau recognises that an integrated all-hazards system would enable to the Bureau to

provide more specific rapid update briefings and services to government, emergency managers and the public. If this approach was adopted, the role of the forecaster would shift to:

understanding the implications of the forecast for key stakeholders;

communicating this information effectively using uncertainty and alternative scenarios; and

providing short term warning services: updated frequently and tailored according to latest observations of severe weather.

The Bureau has advised that the implementation of an integrated all-hazards decision system is likely to cost in the order of $2 million per year.

(d) Enhanced observation network This option would also boost the systems available to frontline meteorologists, by:

deploying portable AWS and additional permanent AWS in critical areas around Australia;

upgrades to parts of the AWS communications network to ensure real-time observations are available to forecasters during extreme and severe weather events;

developing adaptive systems for monitoring the upper atmosphere along Southern Australia to assess the evolution of cold fronts and intense low pressure systems;

developing analysis tools for high resolution and high frequency satellite observations; and

deploying weather measuring equipment in the Gulf of Carpentaria for monitoring and

Option 26(a) Option 26(b) Option 26(c) Option 26(d)

Outline Enhanced severe weather units

National Weather Centres

Integrated all hazards system

Enhanced observational network

Summary Increase the number of severe weather experts from a total of 14 to 31 staff.

Introduce four national centres, 28 new staff.

Enables forecasters to better communicate forecasts to stakeholders through more frequent forecasts tailored according to latest severe weather observations.

Boosts the systems available to frontline meteorologists by enhancing AWS systems, developing new systems and tools, deploying additional equipment, and ensuring the availability of engineering staff.


$5.6m per year $3.6m per year $2m per year $10m per year

Table 19 - Options for extreme weather forecasting enhancements

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assessing tropical cyclones and low pressure systems.

Concerns regarding the Bureau’s engineering capacity were identified in the stress test carried out in 2009 (see Section 3.3). This initiative would also bolster the availability of engineering staff to maintain equipment during severe weather events and to supplement observation staff in some critical stations currently staffed by one person. The Bureau has advised that this option is likely to cost in the order of $10 million.

Option 27: Upgrade to the Bureau’s supercomputing capacity Any additional investment in supercomputing will require consideration of the Bureau’s long term role in the provision of extreme weather and seasonal forecasting services – as there is a direct link between the level of investment in supercomputing and the level of resolution to which models can be run.

(a) Status quo As outlined at Option 9, the Bureau estimates that a minimum investment in supercomputing of approximately $38 million, including $14 million for a secondary data centre, is likely to be required simply to maintain the status quo (current supercomputing capacity). Replacing the Bureau’s supercomputer with like-for-like capacity would not significantly improve the Bureau’s capacity to forecast severe weather events, and would only enable incremental improvements to its seasonal forecasting services.

(b) Step change A step change in supercomputing capability would provide the ability to process a greater amount of observational data in a shorter period of time. In practice, this would enable the Bureau to run its daily weather forecast models (which are also used to predict extreme weather events) and seasonal forecast models more frequently and at higher resolution.

The benefits for extreme weather forecasting under this option are described below.

Increased lead time for forecasts of extreme weather events through more frequent model updates. Currently, the Bureau’s supercomputer only allows it to run its daily weather forecast models every 12 hours, whereas this option would enable it to run them every three hours if required. This would enable the Bureau to provide more regular updated on possible extreme weather events,

and to more quickly identify changing extreme weather patterns.

Improved accuracy of forecasts through increased resolution and at scales relevant to local decision-making and risk management. Currently, the Bureau’s supercomputer only allows it to produce global forecasts to a resolution of 40km and regional forecasts to 12km, whereas this option would enable it to achieve much greater levels of forecast resolution (10-20km for global forecasts and 2-4km for regional forecasts). These improvements would be of great benefit, as the ‘scales of action’ (where weather is at its most intense) for extreme weather is often in the sub-10km range.

Improved tropical cyclone track forecasting and increased lead times for warnings. These improvements would be gained due to the improvements in forecast model resolution. The Bureau has advised that there is a clear link between model resolution and the accuracy of cyclone track and intensity forecasts. This improved accuracy would also enable the Bureau to generate forecasts further into the future, increasing the lead times provided on cyclone track and intensity.

Improvements in forecast resolution would enable enhanced services for other critical events such as heatwaves, bushfires and floods. The Bureau advised that increased resolution has been shown to be beneficial for forecasting wind changes, important for bushfire management, and for forecasting precipitation for flood events.

The benefits for seasonal forecasting under this option are described below.

Increased resolution of seasonal forecasts down to more localised levels. Currently, the Bureau’s supercomputer only allow it to produce seasonal forecasts down to a resolution of approximately 250km using the POAMA-2 system, whereas this option would enable resolution of up to 50-80km.

More frequent seasonal forecast model updates. Currently, the Bureau issues its seasonal predictions every three months for an outlook period of six months (one season ahead), whereas this option could enable the Bureau to run its seasonal forecast models every day for an outlook period of one year (two seasons ahead).

Better understanding of the recent climate through reanalysis of past weather events. Currently, the Bureau’s supercomputer does

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not have the capacity to process the amount of data required to reanalyse past weather events to determine how the climate is changing over time. Under this option, the Bureau could produce reanalyses of past events which would enable research into climate variation by the Bureau and external parties.

According to the Bureau’s estimates, this step change would cost $33 million, plus $11 million for a mid-life upgrade to enable the system to meet increasing demand during its life cycle. This would bring the total cost of a step change to $82 million, including the $38 million of expenditure identified under Option (a) above.

(c) Further enhancements An additional enhancement would be to increase further the Bureau’s supercomputing capacity to enable the Bureau to use ensemble forecasting for extreme weather prediction. Ensembles are sets of weather prediction models run in parallel, each distinguished by small variations in the initial state that drive differences in the final output. Running these models in parallel requires significant additional supercomputing capacity, as the processing requirements multiply with each additional model run. Each model run produces a slightly different forecast and the difference between these forecasts provides a measure of forecast confidence. Where the forecasts diverge greatly, the forecast confidence is lower and, conversely, when the forecasts are similar, the forecast confidence is high.

The benefit of ensemble forecasting for extreme weather prediction is the ability to provide confidence levels for individual forecasts; these are important for risk management and response. For example, ensembles could be used to forecast the probability of precipitation levels in a geographic location during a possible flood event, enabling emergency services to better understand the likelihood of the flood event and take appropriate response action.

Ensemble forecasting capability would cost an estimated $22 million to fund the additional

supercomputing capacity required.

A second enhancement would build capacity in the Bureau’s Disaster Recovery Centre to provide business continuity in the event of a critical system failure. If there was a critical system failure in the Bureau’s main supercomputer, the Disaster Recovery Centre would provide sufficient supercomputing capacity for the Bureau to maintain its business as usual forecasting processes. This would cost an additional $10 million.

This would bring the estimated cost of further enhancements to $32 million.

Table 20 provides a summary of the options available for enhancing the Bureau’s supercomputing capability, based on the Bureau’s best estimates. Any of these options would represent a substantial investment on the part of the government. The case for making such an investment would have to be very carefully examined on the basis of modelling the social and economic benefits that could ensue. In the opinion of this Review, it is possible that such benefits would be large but that does not create a prima facie case for these options taking priority above other budget proposals. In addition, as discussed under Priority Action 9, it would be desirable to undertake a rigorous expert assessment of alternatives to a dedicated facility owned and operated by the Bureau.

For short term weather prediction, including extreme weather events, the Bureau’s prediction models require peak supercomputing capacity in order to assimilate all available information and generate forecasts as quickly as possible. During off-peak periods, when the supercomputer is not fully being used for short term weather prediction, the Bureau would use the increased supercomputing capacity to run its higher

resolution seasonal prediction models.

Option 28: Improved seasonal forecasting capabilities The Review has found that stakeholder needs for and expectations of seasonal forecasting vary

Status quo Step change Further enhancements

Outline Like-for-like replacement of current high performance supercomputer ($24 million)

Secondary data centre ($14 million)

Numerical Weather Prediction ($33 million)

Mid-life upgrade ($11 million)

Ensemble forecasting

($22 million)

Disaster Recovery Centre ($10 million)


$38 million $82 million

$114 million

Table 20 - Summary of the options for enhancing the Bureau's supercomputing capability (2015-16 to 2019-20)

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78

across sectors. While general stakeholder satisfaction is high, some have expressed a desire for more accurate, reliable and region-specific data. The underlying requirement to meet these needs is implementation of higher resolution models, which would require significant enhancements to the Bureau’s supercomputing systems (as described in Option 27).

The Review has concluded that while there are significant opportunities for enhancements to seasonal forecasting in the short to medium term, these do not have the same urgency as enhancements in extreme weather forecasting. Any significant enhancement of seasonal forecasting capacity should proceed only if it can be demonstrated that a high proportion of the costs will be recoverable from customers (the user pays approach is discussed at Option 24).


In the short term, and in advance of any further work on cost-recovery, there is significant opportunity to improve the communication of the Bureau’s current Seasonal Climate Outlook product. The Bureau has already researched an upgrade to the presentation of this product, and is currently at the concept stage of its design. This will enhance the accessibility and customer benefit of the seasonal forecasting service within existing resources.


The Bureau has advised that funding from the Managing Climate Variability program supports much of the existing seasonal forecasting model development, and this funding stream cannot be guaranteed in the medium to long term.

The Bureau also warns that without an increase in supercomputing capability, the quality of its seasonal forecasting products will steadily decline in comparison to leading international products, reaching a point where it would be more appropriate to source products elsewhere. The Bureau would be unable to meet the international benchmark resolution of 50 to 80km in the atmosphere in the next decade and would continue to have a limited capacity to model tropical processes (research in the United Kingdom suggests that resolutions finer than 100km are required for significant improvement).

Significant resources would be required to develop and implement a seasonal forecasting modelling capability comparable to international leading edge standards by 2016. This would include

funding for a large amount of research and development to enable the POAMA system to assimilate and account for a broader range of climate information and variables, as well as additional investment in observational systems in the ocean, atmosphere and land, such as ocean buoys and better utilisation of satellite data. This step change would also require investment in the Bureau’s supercomputing capacity to run the enhanced POAMA system (discussed under Option 27).These enhancements to the POAMA system would enable the Bureau to meet the benchmark resolution of 50 to 80km in the atmosphere, produce a wider range of climatic variable outputs, provide more accurate and longer lead times for forecasts, target forecasts down to local levels, enhance the skill and reliability of its forecasts, and account for climate change variables.

In addition, the Bureau has advised that the additional resourcing available under this option would enable it to invest in high performance computing for research purposes at the National Computing Infrastructure facility at the Australian National University.

208 This would enable research

and development to be carried out offline, without consuming the limited supercomputing resources available on the operational system. This research and development would include trialling or testing the impact of possible changes or enhancements to the POAMA system and its models, or to benchmark POAMA’s performance against other international seasonal forecasting systems.

Additionally, the Bureau would establish a climate data warehouse. The warehouse would make the Bureau's seasonal forecast data freely available to researchers outside of the Bureau. This would enable the Bureau to foster collaborative research partnerships to improve the science underpinning its seasonal forecast models, and significantly boost third party research into climate variability and change.

The Bureau has estimated that approximately $28 million over four years would be required to deliver this option.

Option 29: Explore use of social media to enhance data gathering from authorised and informal sources and to disseminate weather information The release of the Australian Government Response to the Report of the Government 2.0 Taskforce has highlighted the need for government agencies to use technology to increase citizen engagement and enhance service delivery. The Bureau could make better use of

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79

technology, such as social media or mobile device applications, to enable more effective two-way communication during extreme weather events.

A recent example of the potential value of social media during extreme weather events was the use of Facebook by the Queensland Police Service (QPS) to provide reliable information to the public during the floods in early 2011, and to dispel misinformation from elsewhere. Following the positive feedback it received, the QPS is establishing a one-stop shop for information during emergencies (www.qldalert.com). It will provide information from local councils, government departments, public transport providers, power supply companies and charities. The web site is also intended to provide links to other sites, Twitter feeds, Facebook posts, videos and geocoded maps.

209

The potential role of social media for disseminating weather information, and particularly warnings, has been investigated by the Bureau.

210 Its preliminary conclusions are that the

resources required to moderate social media pages may be beyond its means and that to avoid misinformation they would be unwilling to include ‘official’ Bureau material on a site dominated by user-generated content. These are reasonable concerns.

211 However, demand for these services

may be driven by the performance of other agencies and in the future it may simply not be possible to communicate effectively with certain parts of the community without using the preferred social media channels.

International meteorological organisations are already making use of social media to disseminate information. The United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service (NWS) uses social media tools including Twitter, Facebook, YouTube, RSS Feeds and Podcasts to “share critical information and provide the public a better understanding of the work we do”.

212 Additionally, the UK Met Office

provides an average of 10-30 messages per week on its Twitter and Facebook pages with general weather and severe weather information. This includes a Severe Weather Warning Twitter feed that is updated whenever a Severe Weather Warning is issued.

213

80

Appendices

Appendix A: Terms of Reference

Background

The Bureau of Meteorology (the Bureau) plays a vital role in the protection of life and property during extreme and natural disaster events. Its expertise and services assist Australians in dealing with extreme events such as drought, floods, fires, storms, tsunami and tropical cyclones.

The Bureau contributes to all aspects of disaster management including planning, preparation, response and recovery. It works with state disaster managers and state and local government agencies in order to provide the best possible meteorological and hydrological advice on which decisions are made.

The recent increased frequency of extreme events has seen increased demands placed on the Bureau for information and advice, including from state and local authorities, communities and the media. These demands can occur across multiple states and over long periods. These trends have been highlighted most recently during the 2010-11 summer, which has seen unprecedented flood events in Queensland and Victoria, Tropical Cyclone Yasi, and severe bushfires in Western Australia. Climate change modelling indicates the incidence and severity of extreme weather and natural disaster events may increase in the future. This review will assess the Bureau’s ongoing capacity to respond to such events in the future.

Definitions

future extreme weather: expected future increase in frequency and intensity of weather patterns leading to severe phenomena such as high winds, tropical cyclones, coastal storm surges, hail, intense rainfall and flash flooding.

natural disaster events: a natural phenomenon leading to a serious disruption to the functioning of a community causing widespread human, material, economic or environmental losses, including events such as drought, flood, bushfire, earthquake and severe coastal erosion and mud slips.

seasonal forecasting: forecasting to provide guidance on the likelihood of weather patterns over a timescale of several months. This could include guidance on extended periods of below or above average temperatures or rainfall.

Objective and scope

The Review will:

1. Undertake a thorough assessment of the Bureau’s capacity to (a) respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events, and (b) provide accurate and timely seasonal forecasting services.

2. Include assessments of: a. the practices, capabilities and resources of the Bureau to respond effectively and efficiently to

future extreme weather and natural disaster events; b. the Bureau’s workforce capability, including areas of technical expertise such as forecasting

and hydrology, and its current and ongoing capacity to deal with periods of peak demand; c. the systems and infrastructure required to meet demand during extreme events; d. the Bureau’s capability to conduct seasonal forecasting; e. the balance of the Bureau’s other priorities in the context of delivery of the above services.

3. Investigate how the Bureau interacts with key stakeholders, including state, territory and federal government agencies and examine the role of the Bureau in communicating warnings and other information to the general public and government agencies, as well as the protocols for this communication.

4. Take into consideration the interim report of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry due on 1 August 2011.

Appendix A: Terms of Reference

81

5. Based on the above assessments, and having regard to the recommendations of previous Bureau reviews, recommend actions required to ensure that the Bureau can meet its responsibilities in relation to future extreme events and seasonal forecasting, including (but not limited to) consideration of: a. opportunities to reinvest or reprioritise existing resources to meet current and expected future

demands, without compromising ability to deliver on all Bureau responsibilities. b. opportunities to deliver functions more effectively and efficiently, including through more

effective interactions with relevant agencies.

Governance Arrangements

The Review will be led by Chloe Munro with support from a technical expert or experts with expertise in hydrology, meteorology and technical systems. Secretariat support will be provided by the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities (DSEWPaC). The review is expected to present its findings to the government by the end of November 2011.

Steering Committee

A Government Steering Committee will monitor progress of the review and provide guidance and direction as needed to ensure delivery against the Terms of Reference. The Committee will comprise representatives from the Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, the Department of Prime Minister and Cabinet, the Attorney General’s Department, the Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry and the Bureau.

82

Appendix B: List of submissions and questionnaire responses Number Organisation

1 QLD Department of Community Safety

2 WA Fire and Emergency Services Authority

3 Gippsland Water

4 SA Water

5 Origin Energy

6 Anonymous

7 NT Power and Water

8 McDermott Aviation

9 Anonymous

10 South East Water – Operations & Maintenance

11 CSIRO

12 Anonymous

13 Insurance Council of Australia

14 SA Police

15 Allconnex Water

16 Broadcast Australia

17 Anonymous

18 WA Fire and Emergency Services Authority

19 Bushfire Cooperative Research Centre

20 Anonymous

21 Anonymous

22 Jemena

23 Anonymous

24 Caroline Vineyard, Mount Gambier SA

25 Anonymous

26 SA Water

27 City of Stirling WA

28 City of Albany WA

29 Shire of Halls Creek WA

30 Town of Bassendean WA

31 Shire of Roebourne WA

32 Department of Environment and Conservation WA

33 Anonymous

34 Anonymous

35 KT Pty Ltd

36 Toowoomba Regional Council

37 Anonymous

38 Country Fire Authority Vic

39 Shire of Jerramungup WA

40 Chief Bush Fire Control Officer, Dumbleyung, WA

41 WDS Limited

42 WA Police

43 Anonymous

44 Anonymous

45 Coliban Water

46 Murray-Darling Basin Authority

47 Shire of Plantagenet, WA

48 Anonymous

49 Anonymous

Appendix B: List of submissions and questionnaire responses

83

50 Tasmania Police – Northern District Support Division

51 Tasmania Police – Southern District

52 Anonymous

53 Tasmania State Emergency Service

54 City of South Perth

55 Anonymous

56 Tas Fire Service

57 Shire of Plantagenet WA Bush Fire Service

58 Anonymous

59 Shire of Plantagenet WA Chief Fire Weather Reporting Officer

60 Anonymous

61 Anonymous

62 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services

63 Anonymous

64 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW

65 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – NRAS Tamworth


67 Anonymous

68 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW Native Forests Operations, Hardwood Plantation Unit


70 Anonymous



73 Anonymous



76 Anonymous

77 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW, Monaro Region

78 Anonymous



81 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Forests NSW, Macquarie Region


83 Anonymous


85 Anonymous

86 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Resources & Energy

87 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Central Coast Primary Industries Institute

88 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Primary Industries

89 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services - Forests

90 Anonymous

91 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Economic Policy and Research


93 NSW Department of Trade & Investment, Regional Infrastructure & Services – Biosecurity Branch

94 NT Fire and Rescue Service

95 Department of Agriculture, Fisheries and Forestry, Australian Bureau of Agricultural Resource Economics and Sciences

96 Local Government Association of Queensland

97 Anonymous

98 Department of the Premier and Cabinet, Queensland


84

99 Australian Maritime Safety Authority, Marine Environment Pollution Response

100 Australian Maritime Safety Authority, SAR Operations

101 Great Barrier Reef Marine Park Authority

102 Queensland Water Commission

103 GRDC Managing Climate Variability Program

104 Anonymous

105 Fire and Emergency Services Australia

106 KD.1 Pty Ltd

107 Anonymous

108 Anonymous

109 Anonymous

110 Anonymous

111 Anonymous

112 Anonymous

113 Anonymous

114 Anonymous

115 Anonymous

116 Anonymous

117 Anonymous

118 Anonymous

119 Anonymous

120 Anonymous

121 Anonymous

122 Australian Agency for International Development, Humanitarian and Peacebuilding Branch

123 Anonymous

124 RAAF – HQ Air Command

125 Army – HQ FORCOMD

126 Anonymous

127 RAN

128 Geoscience Australia

129 Virgin Australia

130 CPSU

131 Hunter Water Corporation

132 Wine Grape Growers Australia and Winemakers’ Federation of Australia

133 Anonymous

134 Engineers Australia

135 John Saleh (Viticulturalist)

136 Anonymous

137 Shell Development Australia Pty Ltd

138 Anonymous

139 Town of Cambridge, WA

140 Anonymous

141 Anonymous

142 Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency

143 Ergon Energy Corporation Ltd.

144 Goulburn Valley Water

145 Anonymous

146 Sydney Catchment Authority

147 Woodside Energy Ltd

148 Anonymous

149 Margan Family Wines

150 South Australian Country Fire Service


85

151 Australian Antarctic Division

152 Turners Crossing

153 Anonymous

154 NSW Rural Fire Service

155 SA State Emergency Service – Corporate Communications

156 SA State Emergency Service – Community FloodSafe

157 SA State Emergency Service – State Emergency Management

158 Anonymous

159 Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities – Environmental Water Branch

160 Wrattonbully Wine Industry Association

161 Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities – Environment Quality Division

162 NSW Department of Premier and Cabinet, Office of Environment and Heritage – Environment Protection and Regulation Group

163 Vic Department of Sustainability and Environment

164 Anonymous

165 Adelaide Hills Wine Region

166 Anonymous

167 BoM – Bom Training Centre

168 WA Department of Agriculture and Food

169 WA Department of Environment and Conservation

170 Townsville Water

171 Water Services Association of Australia

172 Anonymous

173 Qld DERM

174 Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council

86

Appendix C: Stakeholder questionnaire

Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s capacity to respond to future extreme weather

and natural disaster events, and to provide seasonal forecasting services

Stakeholder Questionnaire

The Review of the Bureau of Meteorology 2011 (the Review) is seeking input from key stakeholders

identified as significant users of the Bureau’s products and services. Your organisation has been

identified as one of these key stakeholders. The Review team is particularly interested in

understanding your organisation’s needs, how well they are being met by the information and

services provided by the Bureau, and how they might change in the near future.

The purpose of the Review is to undertake a thorough assessment of the Bureau’s capacity to (a)

respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events, and (b) provide accurate and timely

seasonal forecasting services.

This will include an assessment of the Bureau’s practices, capabilities and resources to respond

effectively and efficiently to future extreme weather and natural disaster events and an

investigation of its interaction with key stakeholders.

Your effort in responding to this questionnaire is greatly appreciated. Your input will assist in

assessing the Bureau’s capacity to deliver its essential services. Please note that the questionnaire

has been designed to be as user-friendly as possible and it is not anticipated that you will answer all

of the questions. You need only answer those questions that relate directly to the information and

services you obtain from the Bureau.

We would appreciate all responses by Friday 2 September 2011.

Please email completed questionnaires to: [email protected]

or send to:

Bureau of Meteorology Review Secretariat

Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities

GPO Box 787

Canberra ACT 2601

mailto:[email protected]


87

QUESTIONNAIRE

To assist you in completing the questionnaire, please refer to the following definitions:

General weather forecasting – forecasts from one to seven days of maximum and minimum temperatures,

precipitation and wind; also general warnings other than those for severe weather

Extreme weather event warnings – forecasts from 6 to 48 hours, and immediate information, relating to

extreme events such as tropical cyclones, severe thunderstorms, tsunamis, fire weather, storm surges,

flood, volcanic ash and man made disasters.

Seasonal forecasting – seasonal and intra-seasonal outlooks for temperature and rainfall, generally

looking 3 months or more ahead.

Information – standard products delivered by the Bureau such as forecasts and warning services delivered

through the internet and other similar channels.

Services – tailored products, registered user products or other user-specific services that are targeted to

individual agencies, companies or industry sectors.

Name of person completing questionnaire:

Name of organisation:

Please tick this box if you wish do not wish to have your personal information or submission made public or

included/quoted in the Review

Please note: All submissions and the names of persons or organisations making a submission will be treated as public unless the author clearly indicated that they did not wish to have this information made public. Submissions may also be included or quoted in the Review report.

SECTION A – General weather forecasting

A.1 Do you use general weather forecasting information from the Bureau?

Yes No please proceed to Section B

A.2 How do you get general weather information from the Bureau?

Internet Television Radio Print media Face to face Other please specify

A.3 How often do you require general weather information?

Hourly or more frequently Daily Weekly Monthly or annually Irregular/unpredictable

A.4 Do you reformat this general weather information or combine it with other information? (e.g. adding to or

improving Bureau data)

Yes Sometimes No please proceed to question A.5

i. What information do you add? please describe

ii. Why do you add this information?

To tailor to specific needs To provide to another party To make it easier to interpret

To include information on the impacts of the weather Other please specify

iii. How do you reformat this information? (consider the processes you undertake)

Through collaboration with the Bureau Through collaboration with another party In house

Other please specify


88

A.5 Do you receive information tailored to you?

Yes please specify Sometimes please specify No

A.6 Do you have a formalised, agreed or documented process for engaging with the Bureau?

Yes please describe No

A.7 Does the general weather information you receive from the Bureau meet your needs in terms of:

Quality? Timeliness? Frequency? Accessibility? Presentation?

All of the time

Most of the

time

Some of the

time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the

time

Some of the

time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the

time

Some of the

time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the

time

Some of the

time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

A.8 Do you draw on other providers for general weather services that could be sourced from the Bureau?

Yes No please proceed to question A.9

i. Who are these sources? please specify (e.g. weather company, Elders etc)

ii. Why do you use them?

They provide more accurate information and/or services

They provide more timely information and/or services

They provide more accessible information and/or services

They provide more tailored information and/or services

I like to draw on more than one source of information


A.9 What value do you place on the Bureau’s general weather information? (i.e. does the Bureau’s information

and/or services contribute to the protection of life/property/other investments)

Very high value High value Medium value Low value

A.10 What kinds of decisions do you take (and what risks do you manage) based on the general weather

information you receive?

please specify

A.11 How would you rate the importance of accurate general weather predictions?

High Medium Low Not important please proceed to Section B

A.12 How would you rate the current accuracy of general weather predictions from the Bureau?

Very High High Medium Low


89

SECTION B – Extreme weather events

B.1 Do you use extreme weather event information and/or services from the Bureau?

Yes No please proceed to Section C

B.2 Do you rely on Bureau

information and/or

services for:

Floods Fires Cyclones Tsunamis Severe

Thunderstorms

Other

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes please

specify

No

If you have answered ‘yes’ to any of the above questions, please proceed to question B.3

If you have answered ‘no’ to all of the above questions, please proceed to Section C

B.3 Do you use this

information for planning

or seasonal preparedness

purposes?

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

B.4 Do you use this

information in your risk

management processes?

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

B.5 Does this information

inform your decision-

making for the protection

of life and property?

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No


inform your management

of a disaster event?

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No


inform your recovery after

a disaster event?

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

Yes

No

B.8 How do you get extreme weather event information and/or services from the Bureau?


B.9 During an extreme weather event, how often do you require information?

Hourly or more frequently Daily Irregular/unpredictable

B.10 Do you reformat this extreme weather information or combine it with other information? (e.g. adding to or

improving Bureau data)

Yes Sometimes No please proceed to question B.11




To include information on the impacts of the weather Other Please specify





90

B.11 Do you receive information tailored to you?


B.12 Do you have a formalised, agreed or documented process for engaging with the Bureau for extreme

weather event information?

Yes please describe No

B.13 Does the extreme weather event service you receive from the Bureau meet your needs in terms of:


All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the

time

Some of the

time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the

time

Some of the

time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

B.14 Do you draw on other providers for extreme weather services that could be sourced from the Bureau?

Yes No please proceed to question B.15







I like to draw on more than one source of information


B.15 What value do you place on the Bureau’s extreme weather event information and/or services? (i.e. does

the Bureau’s information and/or services contribute to the protection of life/property/other

investments)


B.16 What kinds of decisions do you take (and what risks do you manage) based on the extreme weather

information you receive? please specify

B.17 How will your needs for Bureau’s extreme weather event services vary over time?

They will increase markedly They will stay the same They will decrease Unsure

B.18 What are the key drivers that could change your needs?

Frequency of weather events Changes in climate Changed behaviours or business practices

Changes to science and technology Unsure Other please describe

B.19 What are the trends you observe in these key drivers? (i.e. their impact on your need for extreme

weather services)

B.20 How would you rate the importance of accurate extreme weather predictions?

High Medium Low Not important please proceed to Section C

B.21 How would you rate the current accuracy of extreme weather event predictions from the Bureau?



91

SECTION C – Seasonal forecasting C.1 Do you use seasonal forecasting information from the Bureau?

Yes No please proceed to Section D

C.2 How do you get seasonal forecasting information from the Bureau?


C.3 How often do you require seasonal forecasting information?

Hourly or more frequently Daily Weekly Monthly or annually Irregular/unpredictable

C.4

Do you reformat this seasonal forecasting information or combine it with other information? (e.g. adding to

or improving Bureau data)

Yes Sometimes No please proceed to question C.5




To include information on the impacts of the weather Other please specify




C.5 Do you receive information tailored to you?


C.6 Do you have a formalised, agreed or documented process for engaging with the Bureau for seasonal

forecasting information and/or services? Yes please describe No

C.7 Does the seasonal forecasting information you receive from the Bureau meet your needs in terms of:


All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

All of the time

Most of the time

Some of the time

Rarely

C.8 Do you draw on other providers for seasonal forecasting services that could be sourced from the Bureau?

Yes No please proceed to question C.9







I like to draw on more than one source of information Other please specify

C.9 What value do you place on the Bureau’s seasonal forecasting information and/or services? (i.e. does the

Bureau’s information and/or services contribute to the protection of life/property/other investments)


C.10 What kinds of decisions do you take (and what risks do you manage) based on the seasonal forecasting


92

information you receive? please specify

C.11 How would you rate the importance of accurate seasonal forecasting services?

High importance Medium importance Low importance Not important please proceed to Section D

C.12 How would you rate the current accuracy of extreme weather event predictions from the Bureau?


SECTION D – Additional information

D.1 What improvements would you like to see in the Bureau’s provision of information and/or services?

please list in order of importance/priority

D.2 Do you have any comments on any other matters covered by the Review’s terms of reference? (The terms

of reference are available here: http://www.environment.gov.au/about/bom/index.html)

please specify

http://www.environment.gov.au/about/bom/index.html

93

Appendix D: Recommendations from the Process Review

The principal recommendations from the process review are that the Bureau should:

1. Develop Bureau Wide Process View. Develop a process oriented view of Bureau operations that spans the existing organisational and program structures. View the Bureau as a system of interdependent components that is more than the sum of its parts.

2. Develop Bureau Wide Process Model. Develop an overall process model in parallel with a governance structure that shows how processes interact and allows for the evaluation of trade offs between local (either geographically or functionally) and global (the Bureau in its environment) requirements.

3. Develop Process Oriented Bureau Wide Information Model. Develop a global information model that provides a common ground for interfacing systems and managing information across functional domains.

4. Develop Process Governance. Develop a governance model to support Business Process Management, including Executive level representation for process management and the role of Process Stewards who are responsible for the end-to-end, cross divisional, operation of the high level processes.

5. Develop Innovation, Improvement, and Deployment Process and Governance. Establish communities of practice for innovation, including Business Process Improvement oriented methodologies for generating, prioritising, evaluating, and deploying solutions and innovations for process, people, and technology improvement needs.

6. Develop Core Bureau Wide Processes with Regional Adaptability. Seek to reduce the amount of variation in national processes as they are deployed across the regions, consistent with achieving local requirements. Best practice in distributed organisations seeks to have a core of “global” processes that serve and protect the organisational core needs, in conjunction with the necessary local “adapters” that add necessary local variants to the core functionality. This is very different to allowing local solutions to drive the global synthesis.

7. Develop Process Oriented Knowledge Management. Seek to use the process framework as a vehicle for capturing the tacit knowledge of skilled and experienced professionals. Experience will always be at a premium, but it should supplement rather than substitute the process.

8. Clarify Customer Focus for all Processes. Develop formalised methods for gathering and analysing customer requirements that feed through into product and service specifications that can be used to a) design and b) monitor the performance of service delivery processes using appropriate, customer-centric, measures.

9. Improve Internal and External Communication Processes. Clarify and formalise communication paths and establish IT support for messaging such that information flows consistently and transparently through the organisation. Establish priorities for messaging such that important messages are not lost in the general “noise” of communication.

Of these, items 8 and 9 should be considered in part as tactical projects for the coming extreme weather season. The whole set of recommendations forms the basis of a strategic program to implement and benefit from a process management focus within the Bureau.

The Process Reviewer believes that strengthening the Bureau’s Business Process Management capability is a critical enabler of its ability to respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events.

94

Appendix E: Peer Reviewers

The Review sought the assistance of three international meteorological experts who peer reviewed the Review’s draft report. This enabled the Review to test its draft conclusions and identify commonalities in issues that were being faced by other international meteorological agencies. These international experts are outlined below.

Jim Abraham, Director-General, Weather and Environmental Monitoring, Meteorological Service of Canada Jim has been Director General of Weather and Environmental Monitoring for the Meteorological Service of Canada since 2008.

Jim started his career as an operational meteorologist in 1977 and since then has taken on various positions including spending the last ten years studying the behaviour of tropical cyclones in the middle latitudes.

Jim Abraham's desire and commitment to advancing modern meteorology, combined with his leadership to build stronger links between research and operations, with the goal to always improve weather forecasts, is recognised by all who have worked with him.

Jim was awarded the Patterson Distinguished Service Medal in 2002, considered the preeminent award recognising outstanding work in meteorology by residents of Canada.

Gary Carter, Director, Office of Hydrologic Development, United States National Weather Service, National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration Gary Carter has served as Director for the new Office of Hydrologic Development in the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s National Weather Service since November 2000.

Gary is responsible for a group of about 80 Government and contract employees engaged research and development activities to advance the National Weather Service mission to forecast the water in America's rivers and streams.

From 1989 to 2000, Gary was responsible for the professional development and training of weather forecasters throughout the eastern U.S. He has also worked as a research meteorologist focusing on the design, testing, and implementation of statistical procedures to produce weather forecasts.

Rob Varley, Operations and Services Director, UK Met Office Rob is responsible for the end-to-end process for the production and delivery of data and services to the UK Met Office customers. This includes weather, climate and ocean observations, forecasting and the delivery of operational services for customers and the public in the United Kingdom and throughout the world.

As a member of the Met Office Board, Rob also plays a leading role in the strategic management of the organisation, including leading on Corporate Responsibility, helping to ensure that the Met Office meets its objectives in a sustainable way and acts in a positive manner its dealings with staff, customers, suppliers and the wider community.

Rob has worked for the Met Office for nearly 30 years. Before joining the Executive in 2007, he worked in a variety of roles; starting as a weather forecaster, then 10 years at the Met Office College overseeing the training and development of forecasters. He then moved on to project manage the procurement and construction of the Met Office's headquarters building at Exeter. Since the move to Exeter in 2003, he has worked mainly with our public sector customers, helping the United Kingdom to manage the risks and exploit the opportunities associated with our changing weather and climate.

Rob is a graduate of the University of East Anglia, a Chartered Director of the UK Institute of Directors and a Chartered Meteorologist of the Royal Meteorological Society.

95

Appendix F: Bureau functions Component Primary Function

Observations Taking and recording of meteorological observations to meet agreed needs and priorities

Taking and recording of ocean and sea-level observations to meet agreed needs and priorities

Taking and recording of space weather observations to meet agreed needs and priorities

Taking and recording of hydrological observations

Warning and Weather Forecasts Forecasting weather, and warning of weather conditions likely to endanger life or property

Tsunami warnings

Space weather warnings and advice

Promotion and advancement of meteorological science by means of research

Promoting the understanding and use of meteorological Information

Providing forecasts and related products to the aviation sector

Providing forecasts and briefings to the Australian Defence Force including support for exercise and operations

Providing forecasts and information on the state of the oceans

Climate Information Maintaining and publishing the climate record

Monitoring of climate variability and change

Providing seasonal climate predictions

Providing ocean climate information

Conducting climate research

Furnishing advice on climate matters

Developing and maintaining climate information systems

Environmental Information Issuing national environmental information standards

Developing and maintaining environmental information systems

Collecting and publishing environmental information

Water Information Issuing national water information standards

Collecting and publishing water information

Conducting regular national water resources assessments

Publishing an annual National Water Account

Providing a national flood warning and forecasting service

Providing water availability forecasts

Developing and maintaining water information systems

Implementing water information research

Observations and Engineering Delivering observations data and metadata to meet the needs of warnings, weather forecasts and climate information

Maintenance of robust and sustainable national observations infrastructure

Research Atmosphere-Land observation and assessment

Ocean observation, assessment and prediction

Coupled earth systems modelling

Weather and environmental prediction

Seasonal prediction, climate variability and climate change

Information Communication and Technologies

Operate data centres and provide computing services to support Bureau programs and research

Provide the Bureau's telecommunications and telephony needs to underpin operations and the dissemination of product

Corporate Provide financial and budgeting services, including reporting, asset management and governance arrangements

Provide business systems and services including functions and costing and pricing

Government liaison, corporate coordination, international cooperation and the executive

Providing legal, property and office services

Workforce management and scientific, technical and general training support

Communication and public education (community understanding of weather, climate, water and the Bureau’s services)

Planning and strategic advice

Modernisation and Extension of Hydrologic Monitoring Systems

Funding the Modernisation and Extension of Hydrologic Monitoring Systems

96

Appendix G: Report cross-referenced against the Review’s Terms of Reference

Terms of Reference Reference Point

1(a) Undertake a thorough assessment of the Bureau’s capacity to respond to future extreme weather and natural disaster events

2. Include assessments of:

(a) the practices, capabilities and resources of the Bureau to respond effectively and efficiently to future extreme weather and natural disaster events;

1.1. Extreme weather and flood warning services

1.3. General weather forecasting

2.1. People

2.2. Processes

2.3. Technology

2.4. Other inputs and suppliers

3.2. Gaps and inconsistencies in services

3.3. Delivery Risks

(b) the Bureau’s workforce capability, including areas of technical expertise such as forecasting and hydrology, and its current and ongoing capacity to deal with periods of peak demand;

2.1. People

(c) the systems and infrastructure required to meet demand during extreme events;

2.2. Processes

2.3. Technology

3.3. Delivery Risks

(e) the balance of the Bureau’s other priorities in the context of delivery of the above services.

1.5. Priorities for the Bureau


1.1. Extreme weather and flood warning services

1.3. General weather forecasting

1.4. Other Services

2.2. Processes

2.3.3. Information and Communication Technology Network

4. Take into consideration the interim report of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry due on 1 August 2011.

3.1.3. Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry’s Interim Report (2011)

5. Have regard to the recommendations of previous Bureau reviews. 3.1. Findings from other reviews

5. Based on the above assessments ... recommend actions required to ensure that the Bureau can meet its responsibilities in relation to ... seasonal forecasting, including (but not limited to) consideration of:

(a) opportunities to reinvest or reprioritise existing resources to meet current and expected future demands, without compromising ability to deliver on all Bureau responsibilities.

Chapter 4

(b) opportunities to deliver functions more effectively and efficiently, including through more effective interactions with relevant agencies.

1(b) Undertake a thorough assessment of the Bureau’s capacity to provide accurate and timely seasonal forecasting services.

2. Include assessments of:

(b) the Bureau’s workforce capability, including areas of technical expertise such as forecasting and hydrology, and its current and ongoing capacity to deal with periods of peak demand;

2.1. People

(c) the systems and infrastructure required to meet demand during extreme events;

2.2. Processes

2.3. Technology

3.3. Delivery Risks

(d) the Bureau’s capability to conduct seasonal forecasting; 1.2. Seasonal forecasting services

2.1. People

2.2. Processes

2.3. Technology

2.4. Other inputs and suppliers

3.2. Gaps and inconsistencies in services

3.3. Delivery Risks

Appendix G: Report cross-referenced against the Review’s Terms of Reference

97

(e) the balance of the Bureau’s other priorities in the context of delivery of the above services.

1.5. Priorities for the Bureau


1.2. Seasonal forecasting services

2.2. Processes

2.3.3. Information and Communication Technology Network

5. Have regard to the recommendations of previous Bureau reviews. 3.1. Findings from other reviews

5. Based on the above assessments ... recommend actions required to ensure that the Bureau can meet its responsibilities in relation to ... seasonal forecasting, including (but not limited to) consideration of:

(a) opportunities to reinvest or reprioritise existing resources to meet current and expected future demands, without compromising ability to deliver on all Bureau responsibilities.

Chapter 4

(b) opportunities to deliver functions more effectively and efficiently, including through more effective interactions with relevant agencies.

98

Appendix H: Bibliography Bureau documents

Bureau of Meteorology, Basic Product Set (2000) http://www.bom.gov.au/other/BPS/BPS_introduction.shtml

Bureau of Meteorology, Basic Service Policy Paper (2006)

Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2009-10 (2010)

Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau Operations – October 2010 to July 2011 (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau Program and Functional Structure 2011-12 (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Business Function Model (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Business Strategy 2010-15 (2010)

Bureau of Meteorology, Final Report on Implementation of AFFR Recommendations (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, High Level Usage Stats – Web and Mobile (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Online Customer and User Analysis (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Revised Basic Service Policy Paper (2006)

Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Management Handbook (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Register (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Plan 2010-2015 (2010)

Bureau of Meteorology, Timeline of Recent Operational Events for the 10 months October 2010 to July 2011 (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Weather and Ocean Services Policy Handbook – Priorities for the provision of services (2010)

Bureau of Meteorology, Workforce Plan 2010 Strategies Outcomes Report (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Workforce Plan 2011-2015 (2011)

Comcover, Comcover Risk Management Benchmarking Survey 2011 – Bureau of Meteorology Participant Report (2011)

Deloitte, Bureau of Meteorology Strategic Internal Audit Plan 2010-11 (2010)

Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011)

Market Solutions Pty Ltd, Public User Survey – Summer 2010: A Report of Research Findings (2011)

Pitcher Partners, Bureau of Meteorology Base Asset Review (2011)

Previous reviews

Department of Finance and Deregulation, Bureau of Meteorology Agency Functions and Finances Review (2009)

O’Kane, Mary, Creating an Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the 21st

century (2007)

Slatyer, Ralph, Capturing Opportunities in the provision of Meteorological Services (1997)

Slatyer, Ralph, Review of the Operation of the Bureau of Meteorology (1996)

The Allen Consulting Group Pty Ltd and World Competitive Practices Pty Ltd, A Strategic Assessment of the Bureau of Meteorology (2001)

Fires

Attorney-General’s Department, Victorian Bushfires January February 2009 (2011) http://www.disasterassist.gov.au/www/disasterassist/disasterassist.nsf/Page/RWPB4BAFD433135B9D5CA2577E500016034#4

Bureau of Meteorology, Fire Weather Warnings (2010) http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/

Keelty, M, A Shared Responsibility – The Report of the Perth Hills Bushfire February 2011 Review (2011)

Leading Emergency Services, FESA Major Incident Review (2011)

Floods

Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Emergency Manual 19: Managing the Floodplain (1999)

Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Emergency Manual 20: Flood Preparedness (2009)

Appendix H: Bibliography

99

Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Emergency Manual 21: Flood Warning (2009)

Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment (2011) http://www.ema.gov.au/www/emaweb/emaweb.nsf/Page/FundingandGrants_AustralianGovernmentDisasterRecoveryPayment

Australian Government, Commonwealth response to the Interim Report of the Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry (2011)

Australian Government, Queensland Floods (November 2010 - February 2011) (2011) http://www.disasterassist.gov.au/www/disasterassist/disasterassist.nsf/Page/Currentdisasters_QueenslandFloodingDecember2010#qld

Bureau of Meteorology, Arrangements for Flood Warning Services in Victoria (2001)

Bureau of Meteorology, Report to Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry (2011)

Bureau of Meteorology, Victorian Floods Review – Bureau of Meteorology Response to Schedule of Questions (2011)

Bureau of Transport and Regional Economics, Benefits of flood mitigation in Australia (2002)

Comrie, Neil, Review of the 2010-11 [Victorian] Flood Warnings & Response (2011)

Environment Agency, Flood & Coastal Risk Management – Collaborating to improve forecasting services (2009)

Environment Agency, Flooding in England: A National Assessment of Flood Risk (2009)

Environment Agency, Investing for the future – Flood and coastal risk management in England (2009)

Ezzy, Graham and Annan, Katrina, Outcomes of December 2010 Flooding in the Gascoyne River Catchment (2011)

Ezzy, Graham and Ward, Patrick, Outcomes of Sunday 13 March Warmun Community Flash Flooding (2011)

Hapuarachchi, H.A.P. et al, ‘A review of advances in flash flood forecasting’ (2011) 25 Hydrological Processes 2771

Insurance Council of Australia, Insurance Council of Australia Response to 2011 Natural Disaster Insurance Review (2011)

Jordan, Phillip, Hydrological Advice to Commission of Inquiry Regarding 2010/11 Queensland Floods (2011)

New South Wales State Emergency Service, State Flood Sub Plan (2008)

Pitt, Sir Michael, Learning lessons from the 2007 floods (2008)

Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, Interim Report (2011)

State Government of Victoria, Vic Coalition announces $40 million Flood Recovery Boost (2011) http://premier.vic.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/944-vic-coalition-announces-40-million-flood-recovery-boost.html

Trowbridge, John et al, National Disaster Insurance Review (Inquiry into flood insurance and related matters) (2011)

Victorian State Emergency Service, Benalla Community FloodSmort Final Report (2008)

Tsunamis

Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Emergency Manual 46: Tsunami Emergency Planning in Australia (2010)

Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Tsunami warning System http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/about/atws.shtml

Bureau of Meteorology, Tsunami Frequently Asked Questions http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/info/faq.shtml

New South Wales State Emergency Service, Tsunami Emergency Sub Plan (2008)

Cyclones

Bureau of Meteorology, WA Tropical Cyclone Directive (2010)

Fraser, Andrew, ‘Damages from Yasi to dwarf Larry’s costs’ The Australian (5 February 2011)

Knutson, Thomas et al, ‘Tropical cyclones and climate change’ (2010) 3 Nature Geoscience 157


100

Severe thunderstorms

Bureau of Meteorology, Report by the Director of Meteorology of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Forecasting and Warning Performance for the Sydney Hailstorm of 14 April 1999 (1999)

Bureau of Meteorology, Severe Thunderstorms - Facts, Warnings and Protection (April 2000) http://reg.bom.gov.au/info/thunder

Heatwaves

Bureau of Meteorology, Heatwaves (2001) http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/sevwx/perth/heatwaves.shtml

PricewaterhouseCoopers, Protecting human health and safety during severe and extreme heat events: A national framework (2011)

State of Victoria, January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts (2009)

Victoria Police, Press conference: Bushfires death toll revised to 173 (30 March 2009) http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=20350>

Seasonal forecasting/Climate Change

Bureau of Meteorology, Submission by the Bureau of Meteorology to the Inquiry into long-term meteorological forecasting in Australia (2009)

Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses (2011)

Department of Climate Change and Energy Efficiency, Climate Change Science: Frequently Asked Questions (2007)

Department of the Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, Submission to the Inquiry into Meteorological Forecasting (2009)

Managing Climate Variability, Seasonal climate forecast tools and information on the internet – User needs analysis (2008)

Hemer, M.A. et al, Variability and trends in the Australian wave climate and consequent coastal vulnerability (2008)

Hennessy, K et al, An assessment of the impact of climate change on the nature and frequency of exceptional climatic events (2008)

Hobday, Alistair J. et al (eds.), Implications of Climate Change for Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture: a preliminary assessment (2008)

House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, Seasonal forecasting in Australia (2009)

International Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (2007)

Langford, Sally and Hendon, Harry, Assessment of international seasonal rainfall forecasts for Australia and the benefit of multi-model ensembles for improving reliability (2011)

Sims, John, A Climate Forecasting Services Framework (2011)

Disaster Management

Attorney-General’s Department, Natural Disaster Mitigation Program Projects 2003-04 to 2008-09 (2009)

Bureau of Meteorology, Communities urged to prepare early for the wet season (30 September 2011) <http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/qld/20110930.shtml>

Bureau of Transport Economics, Economic Costs of Natural Disasters in Australia (2001)

Council of Australian Governments, National Partnership Agreement on Natural Disaster Resilience (2009)

Crompton, Ryan and McAneney, John, ‘The cost of natural disasters in Australia: the case for disaster risk reduction’ (2008) 4 Australian Journal of Emergency Management 43

Emergency Management Australia, ACT Projects – Natural Disaster Mitigation Program 2003-04 – 2008-09 (2009)

Emergency Management Australia, Attorney-General’s Department Disasters Database (2011)

Emergency Management Australia, Hazards, Disasters and Your Community (2006)

Gentle, N. et al, ‘Economic costs of natural disasters in Australia’ (2001) 16 Australian Journal of Emergency Management 38

Met Office, Together – Make a difference with a coordinated response to emergency management (2008)


101

National Emergency Management Committee, National Strategy for Disaster Resilience (2011)

State Disaster Management Group, Queensland State Disaster Management Plan (2010)

Victorian Government, Towards a more disaster resilient and safer Victoria – Green Paper: Options and Issues (2011)

Legislation

Meteorology Act 1955 (Cth)

Water Act 2007 (Cth)

Other

Australian Bureau of Statistics, Complete Year Book (2008)

Australian Public Service Commission, State of the Service Report 2009-10 (2010)

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire

Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Portfolio Budget Statements 2011-12 Budget Related Paper No. 1.17 (Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities Portfolio) (2011)

Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, The National Plan for Environmental Information (2010) http://www.environment.gov.au/npei/

Kerry, Alison et al, Benchmarking Study on Business Models for the MSC Final Report (2009)

Meteorological Service of Canada, MSC Regional Operational Meteorologists (excluding CMC, DND & Ice Centre) (2011)

PA Consulting Group, Met Office – The Public Weather Service’s contribution to the UK economy (2007)

National Research Council of the National Academies, When Weather Matters – Science and Services to Meet Critical Societal Needs (2010)

102

Appendix I: Abbreviations

ABC Australian Broadcasting Corporation

ACCESS Australian Community Climate and Earth-System Simulator

AFAC Australasian Fire and Emergency Service Authorities Council

AFF Review Agency Functions and Finances Review (2008)

ALERT Automated Local Evaluation in Real Time

AMDAR Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay system

AWS Automatic Weather Station

Capex Capital Expenditure

CAWCR Centre for Australian Weather and Climate Research

Cth Commonwealth

CMSS Central Message Switching System

COPIS Customer-Outputs-Processes-Inputs-Supplies

CPSU Commonwealth Public Sector Union

CSIRO Commonwealth Scientific and Industrial Research Organisation

ENSO El Niño-Southern Oscillation

FDI Fire Danger Index

FEWS Flood Early Warning System

ICAO International Civil Aviation Organisation

ICT Information and Communications Technology

IDV Integrated Data Viewer

IHC Imre Hegedus Consulting

IPS Ionospheric Prediction Service

MOU Memorandum of Understanding

MSC Meteorological Service of Canada

NextGen FWS Next Generation Forecast and Warning System

NDRRA National Disaster Relief and Recovery Arrangements

NMOC National Meteorological and Oceanographic Centre

NPEI National Plan for Environmental Information

Opex Operating Expenditure

POAMA Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia

RACI Responsible-Accountable-Consult-Inform

SLA Service Level Agreement

SREP Strategic RADAR Enhancement Project

TCWC Tropical Cyclone Warning Centre

UPS Uninterruptible Power Supply

UV Ultra-violet

WIRADA Water Information Research and Development Alliance

WMO World Meteorological Organization

103

Appendix J: Glossary

Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay (AMDAR)

Automated weather reports from commercial aircraft. Data are collected by aircraft navigation systems and the onboard temperature and pressure probes. The data are then pre-processed before transmission to the ground via VHF radio communication or satellite link.

Argo A system using a large collection of small, drifting oceanic robotic probes deployed worldwide to observe ocean conditions and provide real-time data for use in climate, weather, oceanographic and fisheries research.

Australian Community Climate and Earth System Simulator (ACCESS)

Weather models currently used by the Bureau to predict weather conditions including precipitation, mean sea-level pressure, surface pressure, wind speed and direction, temperature, and relative humidity.

Computer Message Switching System (CMSS)

A system used to receive and forward meteorological data and products both domestically and internationally.

coupling A method for linking the output of multiple models (e.g. of the ocean and atmosphere) together to produce more accurate weather predictions.

dynamic forecast Forecasts produced using sophisticated mathematical modelling and meteorological data to calculate future weather conditions.

El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO)

A climate pattern that occurs across the tropical Pacific Ocean roughly every five years. It is characterized by variations in the temperature of the surface of the tropical eastern Pacific Ocean—warming or cooling known as El Niño and La Niña respectively—and air surface pressure in the tropical western Pacific—the Southern Oscillation.

ensemble forecast Ensemble forecasting is used to attempt to generate a representative sample of the possible future states of a dynamical system. Multiple numerical predictions are conducted using slightly different initial conditions that are all plausible given the past and current set of observations. The results of the predictions are used to determine the probability of particular weather events occurring.

expendable bathythermograph (XBT)

A device used to record pressure and temperature changes as it is dropped through water. Once used, it sinks to the ocean floor.

forecast skill A measurement of the forecast accuracy of a particular forecast model when compared to a reference analysis.

hindcasting A method used to test models. Known past weather conditions are entered into a model to see how well the output matches known weather conditions at the prediction time.

Ionospheric Prediction Service

The Bureau’s Space Weather Branch.

Next Generation Forecast and Warning System (NexGen FWS)

The system used to generate seven-day forecasts for Victoria, New South Wales, South Australia and Tasmania (to be rolled out over the whole of Australia), drawing upon ACCESS models. The system allows forecasts to be generated for any location in the state or territory.

nowcasting Forecasting of the weather within the next six hours. In this time range it is possible to forecast smaller features such as individual showers and thunderstorms with reasonable accuracy.

numerical weather prediction

The use of mathematical models of the atmosphere and oceans to predict future weather based on current weather conditions.

Predictive Ocean Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA)

A seasonal to multi-year seasonal forecast system based on a coupled ocean and atmosphere model and systems which assimilate observations of ocean, atmosphere and land conditions.

radar An object-detection system which uses radio waves to determine the range, altitude, direction and speed of weather formations.

radio propagation The behaviour of radio waves when they are transmitted. Radio propagation is affected by the daily changes of water vapour in the troposphere and ionization in the upper atmosphere caused by the sun.

statistical forecast Forecasts produced by extrapolation from historical weather data.

104

Endnotes 1 Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, Portfolio Budget Statements 2011-12

Budget Related Paper No. 1.17 (Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities Portfolio) (2011) 3. 2 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011) 19.

3 Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2009-10 (2010).

4 Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Plan 2010-2015 (2010).

5 Crompton, R and McAneney, J, ‘The cost of natural disasters in Australia: the case for disaster risk reduction’ (2008) 23

Australian Journal of Emergency Management 43, 43; Bureau of Transport Economics, Economic Costs of Natural Disasters in Australia (2001) xvi. 6 Bureau of Meteorology, High level usage statistics – web and mobile (13 July 2011).

7 Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire.

8 Meteorology Act 1955 (Cth), s6(1)(c).

9 Insurance Council of Australia, Insurance Council of Australia Response to 2011 Natural Disaster Insurance Review (2011)

5. 10

Emergency Management Australia, Hazards, Disasters and Your Community (2006) 70. 11

Bureau of Meteorology, Report by the Director of Meteorology of the Bureau of Meteorology’s Forecasting and Warning Performance for the Sydney Hailstorm of 14 April 1999. 12

Bureau of Meteorology, Severe Thunderstorms - Facts, Warnings and Protection (April 2000) http://reg.bom.gov.au/info/thunder. 13

Bureau of Meteorology, WA Tropical Cyclone Directive (2010). 14

Andrew Fraser, ‘Damages from Yasi to dwarf Larry’s costs’ The Australian (5 February 2011); Geoffrey Rogow, ‘Australia Assesses Damage After Cyclone’ The Wall Street Journal (5 February 2011). 15

Bureau of Meteorology, Tsunami Frequently Asked Questions http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/info/faq.shtml. 16

Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2009-10 (2010) 43 17

Bureau of Meteorology, Australian Tsunami warning System http://www.bom.gov.au/tsunami/about/atws.shtml. 18

Emergency Management Australia, Attorney-General’s Department Disasters Database (2011) 19

Bureau of Meteorology, Fire Weather Warnings (2010) http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/bushfire/. 20

PricewaterhouseCoopers, Protecting human health and safety during severe and extreme heat events: A national framework (2011). 21

Bureau of Meteorology, Heatwaves (2001) http://www.bom.gov.au/wa/sevwx/perth/heatwaves.shtml. 22

State of Victoria, January 2009 Heatwave in Victoria: an Assessment of Health Impacts (2009) 15. Victoria Police, Press conference: Bushfires death toll revised to 173 (30 March 2009) http://www.police.vic.gov.au/content.asp?Document_ID=20350. 23

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire. 24

Market Solutions Pty Ltd, Public User Survey – Summer 2010: A Report of Research Findings (2011) 7; 14. 25

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting - Fire and Emergency Services Authority of Western Australia (5 September 2011). 26

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Australian Capital Territory Emergency Services Authority (13 September 2011). 27

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 1, 98. 28

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 98. 29


Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 9, 65, 71, 120, 168. 31


Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 10, 14, 42, 171, 122. 33

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 30, 48, 59. 34


Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Queensland Roundtable (30 August 2011); Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 131, 171. 36

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 30, 33, 53, 172. 37











Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 17, 38, 127.

Endnotes

105

48




Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, Interim Report (2011). 52

PricewaterhouseCoopers, Protecting human health and safety during severe and extreme heat events: A national framework (2011) 8. 53

Crompton, R and McAneney, J, ‘The cost of natural disasters in Australia: the case for disaster risk reduction’ (2008) 23 Australian Journal of Emergency Management 43, 45. 54


International Panel on Climate Change, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report (2007) 30; 49. 56

Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses (2011) 38. 57

Hobday, Alistair, Poloczanska, Elvira and Matear, Richard (eds.), Implications of Climate Change for Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture – A Preliminary Assessment (2008) 11. 58


Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses – Key Messages (2011) 1. 60

Department of Climate Change, Climate Change Science – Frequently Asked Questions (2007) 14. 61


Climate Commission, The Critical Decade – Climate science, risks and responses – Key Messages (2011) 1. 63

Hemer, M.A., McInnes, K., Church, J.A., O’Grady, J. and Hunter, J.R., Variability and trends in the Australian wave climate and consequent coastal vulnerability (2008) ix. 64


Knutson, Thomas et al, ‘Tropical cyclones and climate change’ (2010) 3 Nature Geoscience 157, 160; Hobday, Alistair, Poloczanska, Elvira and Matear, Richard (eds.), Implications of Climate Change for Australian Fisheries and Aquaculture – A Preliminary Assessment (2008) 12. 66

Queensland Government, Response to the Floods Commission of Inquiry Interim Report (2011) i. 67

State Government of Victoria, Vic Coalition announces $40 million flood recovery boost (14 May 2011) http://premier.vic.gov.au/media-centre/media-releases/944-vic-coalition-announces-40-million-flood-recovery-boost.html. 68

Attorney-General’s Department, Australian Government Disaster Recovery Payment (2011) http://www.ema.gov.au/www/emaweb/emaweb.nsf/Page/FundingandGrants_AustralianGovernmentDisasterRecoveryPayment; Australian Government, Queensland Floods (November 2010 - February 2011) (2011) http://www.disasterassist.gov.au/www/disasterassist/disasterassist.nsf/Page/Currentdisasters_QueenslandFloodingDecember2010#qld. 69

Attorney-General’s Department, Victorian Bushfires January February 2009 (2011) http://www.disasterassist.gov.au/www/disasterassist/disasterassist.nsf/Page/RWPB4BAFD433135B9D5CA2577E500016034#4. 70

Emergency Management Australia, ACT Projects - Natural Disaster Mitigation Program 2003-04 - 2008-09 (2009) 132. 71

Rob Varley, UK MetOffice Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011. 72

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Australian Broadcasting Commission (29 August 2011). 73


Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Regional Office (30 August 2011). 75

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Bureau of Meteorology Queensland Regional Office (30 August 2011). 76

Sims, John, A Climate Forecasting Services Framework (2011). 77



Bureau of Meteorology, Communities urged to prepare early for the wet season (30 September 2011) http://www.bom.gov.au/announcements/media_releases/qld/20110930.shtml. 80

House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, Seasonal forecasting in Australia (2009). 81


Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Insurance Council of Australia (29 August 2011). 83


House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, Seasonal forecasting in Australia (2009). 85

House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, Seasonal forecasting in Australia (2009) 23. 86

House of Representatives Standing Committee on Industry, Science and Innovation, Seasonal forecasting in Australia (2009) 23. 87

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 42, 48, 55, 65, 66, 117, 120, 137, 154, 158, 168, 172.

Endnotes

106

88

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire, submission 25, 46, 91, 127, 138, 144, 145. 89


Bureau of Meteorology, User-centred evaluation of the Seasonal Climate Outlook products (2011). 91

Queensland Floods Commission of Inquiry, Interim Report (2011). 92

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – National Farmers’ Federation (26 August 2011). 93




Bureau of Meteorology Services Information Management System data. 97

Market Solutions Pty Ltd, Public User Survey – Summer 2010: A Report of Research Findings (2011) 17. 98










Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011) 195. 108

Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Plan 2010-15 (2010) 5. 109


Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, The National Plan for Environmental Information (2010) http://www.environment.gov.au/npei/. 111

Bureau of Meteorology, Basic Product Set (2000) http://www.bom.gov.au/other/BPS/BPS_introduction.shtml. 112

See: Slatyer, Ralph, Capturing Opportunities in the provision of Meteorological Services (1997), viii. The report notes that this figure of $3.5 million does not include aviation and defence which are in a special category. 113


Rob Varley, UK Met Office Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011. 115

Bureau of Meteorology, Workforce Plan 2011-2015 (2011). 116

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire (2011). 117

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Questionnaire (2011), submission 14, 150. 118

(Cth) s6(1)(g). 119

Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011) 49. 120

Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Brisbane Round Table (30 August 2011). 121










Australian Public Service Commission, State of the Service Report 2009-10 (2010) 188. 131


Bureau of Meteorology, Weather and Ocean Services Policy Handbook – Priorities for the provision of services (2010). 133







See: Imre Hegedus Consulting, Bureau of Meteorology Process Review (2011). 140

Bureau of Meteorology, About the Australian Bureau of Meteorology (2010). 141

Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Radar Enhancement Project (SREP) http://www.bom.gov.au/weather/radar/about/srep.shtml. 142


Jim Abraham, Meteorological Service of Canada Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011. 144

Jim Abraham, Meteorological Service of Canada Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011. 145

Rob Varley, UK MetOffice Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011.

Endnotes

107

146

Pitcher Partners, Bureau of Meteorology Base Asset Review (2011) 5. 147




O’Kane, Mary, Creating an Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the 21st century (2007) xv. 151

O’Kane, Mary, Creating an Australian Bureau of Meteorology for the 21st century (2007) xv. 152

Bureau of Meteorological, Aircraft Meteorological Data Relay http://mirror2.bom.gov.au/inside/oeb/networks/amdar.shtml. 153

Department of Finance and Deregulation, Bureau of Meteorology Agency Functions and Finances Review (2009) Appendix 6. 154

Department of Finance and Deregulation, Bureau of Meteorology Agency Functions and Finances Review (2009) Appendix 6. 155


Bureau of Meteorology, About the Forecast Explorer http://www.bom.gov.au/weather-services/about/forecasts/about-graphical-forecasts.shtml. 157

Bureau of Meteorology, Final Report on Implementation of AFFR Recommendations (2011). 158

Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Register 2010-11 (2011). 159

Available at http://www.ag.gov.au/www/agd/agd.nsf/Page/Publications_CommonwealthresponsetotheInterimReportoftheQueenslandFloodCommissioinofInquiry. 160

Comrie, Neil, Review of the 2010-11 Flood Warnings & Response (2011) 26. 161

Comrie, Neil, Review of the 2010-11 Flood Warnings & Response (2011) 4. 162

Hapuarachchi, H.A.P. et al, ‘A review of advances in flash flood forecasting’ (2011) 25 Hydrological Processes 2771. 163

Jordan, Phillip, Hydrological Advice to Commission of Inquiry Regarding 2010/11 Queensland Floods (2011) 48-50. 164

Jordan, Phillip, Hydrological Advice to Commission of Inquiry Regarding 2010/11 Queensland Floods (2011) 48-50. 165

Gary Carter, United States National Weather Service Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review

2011. 166


See, e.g., Ezzy, Graham and Annan, Katrina, Outcomes of December 2010 Flooding in the Gascoyne River Catchment (2011). 168


Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting Insurance Council of Australia (29 August 2011). 170

Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Management Handbook (2011). 171

Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Management Handbook (2011). 172

Comcover, Comcover Risk Management Benchmarking Survey 2011 – Bureau of Meteorology Participant Report. 173

Bureau of Meteorology, Risk Register 2010-11 (2010). 174



Australian Bureau of Statistics, Feature Article 3: Understanding Natural Hazard Impacts on Australia (2008) http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/7d12b0f6763c78caca257061001cc588/00408ced366bb56aca2570de00029f46!OpenDocument. 177

Australian Bureau of Statistics, Feature Article 3: Understanding Natural Hazard Impacts on Australia (2008) http://www.abs.gov.au/AUSSTATS/[email protected]/7d12b0f6763c78caca257061001cc588/00408ced366bb56aca2570de00029f46!OpenDocument. 178

Ahnert, Peter, National Weather Service Flash Flood Warning Program (2011). 179



Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Queensland Roundtable (30 August 2011). 182

Department of Sustainability, Environment, Water, Population and Communities, The National Plan for Environmental Information (2010) http://www.environment.gov.au/npei/index.html. 183

Bureau of Meteorology, Strategic Plan 2010-2015 (2010). 184




Department of Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts, Portfolio Budget Statements 2009-10 Budget Related Paper No. 1.6 (Environment, Water, Heritage and the Arts Portfolio) (2009) 102. 188

Bureau of Meteorology, About the Forecast Explorer http://reg.bom.gov.au/weather-services/about/forecasts/about-graphical-forecasts.shtml.

Endnotes

108

189


Gary Carter, United States National Weather Service Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011. 191

Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011). 192






Gary Carter, Unites States National Weather Service Peer Review of the Review of the Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011. 198


Bureau of Meteorology, High Level Usage Stats – Web and Mobile (2011). 200

Bureau of Meteorology, Bureau of Meteorology Annual Report 2010-11 (2011) iv. 201


Kerry, Alison et al, Benchmarking Study on Business Models for the MSC Final Report (2009) 22. The meteorological agencies examined included those in the US, UK, France, New Zealand, Finland, Australia and Canada. 203



Bureau of Meteorology Review 2011, Stakeholder Meeting – Department of Agriculture and Food (WA) (5 September 2011). 206


Clin J. Paull, The value and benefits of using seasonal climate forecasting in making business decisions: A review (2002). 208

The Bureau of Meteorology is a major partner in the petascale facility and this investment is intended to accommodate seasonal forecasting research and development. 209

Queensland Police Service, Media Conference - World Zombie Day test of www.QLDAlert.com (2011) http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=vcjrApZwPfE. 210



National Oceanic and Atmosphere Administration, Connect with us! NOAA social media (2011) http://www.noaa.gov/socialmedia/. 213

UK MetOffice, Social media policy, http://www.metoffice.gov.uk/about-us/legal/social-media-policy/.

Review of the Bureau of Meteorology’s capacity to respond ... · Chloe Munro December 2011...

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