Review of Research on Educational Access, … Lewin Making... Bangladesh, Ghana, India, South Africa...
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www.create-rpc.org Bangladesh, Ghana, India, South Africa China, Kenya, Malawi, Sri Lanka Review of Research on Educational Access, Transitions and Equity Perspectives, Patterns and Policy Implications Keith M Lewin Presentation slides © Create:Keith M Lewin
Transcript of Review of Research on Educational Access, … Lewin Making... Bangladesh, Ghana, India, South Africa...
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Bangladesh, Ghana, India, South AfricaChina, Kenya, Malawi, Sri Lanka
Review of Research on
Educational Access,
Transitions and Equity
Perspectives, Patterns and
Policy Implications
Keith M Lewin
Presentation slides © Create:Keith M Lewin
Partners
University of Cape Coast
• All children would be in school at the age of six years
• There would be no overage children in schools
• All children would attend consistently and progress at the
appropriate age and graduate from primary and lower secondary
• Levels of achievement would indicate most children scored within
one year of the norm for their grade
• Learning would take place in appropriate spaces
• There would be no differences in participation by wealth, gender,
location, social group, disability etc
• The Global Monitoring Report would not identify 65 million
primary age children out of school
If Education for All had happened beyond Dakar
(2000) or Jomtien (1990) then in 2011…….
A Twelve Point Framework for Equitable Access
1. Improve early childhood health
2. Entry and progression on schedule for age
3. Act on causes of drop out on supply and demand sides
4. Diagnose and remedy Silent Exclusion
5. Manage increased access to Post Primary
6. Promote effective pedagogies and manage learning
7. Build schools and enhance facilities
8. Develop/distribute learning materials fit for purpose
9. Train and deploy competent and motivated teachers
10. Use monitoring assessment to improve learning
11.Provide sustainable financing + track utilisation
12.Develop indicators and monitor distribution and equity
Demand Supply
Meaningful
Equitable
Access
Equity Mobility Transitions
Distribution Poverty Reduction Growth
Profiling Exclusion
Individual
characteristics
and agency
Household
Characteristics
and Agency
School quality,
process and outcomes
District educational
governance
and resourcesCommunity
social, economic,
and political
Copyright Keith M Lewin
www.create-rpc.org
• Sustained attendance not just enrolment
• On-schedule progression at appropriate ages
• Meaningful learning and adequate achievement
• Normal health and nutrition
• Appropriate learning environment
• pedagogy / curriculum / teachers / facilities
• Reasonable access to subsequent levels of education
• More equity + less variation in quantity/quality of inputs
Expanded Visions of Access to Basic Education
Access = Att + Age + Ach + Hn + Le (p + c+ t + lf ) +…
Numbers without Meaningful Access may be 300 million?
CREATE Zones of Exclusion
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
% P
art
icip
ati
ng
Should
Enrol
Unlikely
to Enrol
Zone 3 At Risk
Overage, Low Attenders and Achievers
Zone 4
Primary Leavers
Zone 2
Primary Drop Outs
Primary Grades
Zone 1
Never
Enrol
Lower Secondary Grades
Zone 5 Drop Outs
Zone 6 At Risk
Zone O
No
Pre-
School
CREATE
Zones of Exclusion
www.create-rpc.org
Access
No
Access
No
Access
No
Access
At Risk
Secure Enrolment, Attendance and Achievement
Zone
Charts
Ghana
S. Africa
Ghana
0
50000
100000
150000
200000
250000
300000
350000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
Enro
lment
Boys
Girls
Zone 1
Zone 5
Zone 6
Zone 4
Zone 3
Zone 2
Secure Enrolment with Meaningful Learning
Age/Grade
Population
Z
o
n
e
0
P
r
e
s
c
h
o
o
l
South Africa
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Grade
Boys
Girls
Z
o
n
e
0
P
r
e
s
c
h
o
o
l
Age/Grade
Population
CREATE Model based on NDoE Data
Secure Enrolment with Meaningful Learning
Zone 1
Zone 2
Zone 3
Zone 4
Zone 5
Zone 6
Silent Exclusion
Silent Exclusion
Gross Enrolment Rates - Grade and Gender 2000-2009
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8
(S1)
G9
(S2)
G10
(S3)
G11
(S4)
G12
(S5)
G13
(S6)
Grade
Gro
ss
En
rolm
en
t R
ate
an
d %
Gir
ls
Girls % 2006
Girls % 2007
Girls % 2008
Girls % 2009
Girls % 2010
GER 2006
GER 2007
GER 2008
GER 2009
GER 2010
Uganda
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7
(S1)
G8
(S2)
G9
(S3)
G10
(S4)
G11
(S5)
G12
(S6)
G13
(S7)
Grade
Gro
ss
En
rolm
en
t R
ate
an
d %
Gir
ls
Girls % 2006
Girls % 2007
Girls % 2008
Girls % 2009
Girls % 2010
GER 2006
GER 2007
GER 2008
GER 2009
GER 2010
Tanzania
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
225
250
G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9
(S1)
G10
(S2)
G11
(S3)
G12
(S4)
Grade
Gro
ss
En
rolm
en
t R
ate
an
d %
Gir
ls
Girls % 2006
Girls % 2007
Girls % 2008
Girls % 2009
Girls % 2010
GER 2006
GER 2007
GER 2008
GER 2009
GER 2010
Malawi
0
25
50
75
100
125
150
175
200
G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9
(S1)
G10
(S2)
G11
(S3)
G12
(S4)
Grade
Gro
ss
En
rolm
en
t R
ate
an
d %
Gir
ls
Girls % 2006
Girls % 2007
Girls % 2008
Girls % 2009
Girls % 2010
GER 2006
GER 2007
GER 2008
GER 2009
GER 2010
Gross Enrolment
Rates
% Girls
Enrolled
Ethiopia
GER =120; NER = 97
GPI – 1.01
GER =111; NER = 99
GPI – 99
GER =113; NER = 91
GPI – 1.03
GER =100; NER = 85
GPI – 0.94
Enrolments by Year and by Grade 2000-2009
0
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
1985
1987
1989
1991
1993
1995
1997
1999
2001
2003
2005
2007
2009
En
rolm
en
t
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
G7
1997 Cohort Track
Uganda
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
1,600,000
1,800,000
1970
1973
1976
1979
1982
1985
1988
1991
1994
1997
2000
2003
2006
2009
En
rolm
en
t
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
G7
2002 Cohort Track
1978 Cohort Track
Tanzania
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
2006
2009
En
rolm
en
t G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
G7
G8
1995 Cohort Track
Malawi
-
500,000
1,000,000
1,500,000
2,000,000
2,500,000
3,000,000
3,500,000
4,000,000
4,500,00019992000200120
0220
0320042005200620
0720
0820092010
En
rolm
en
t
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
G7
G8
2005 Cohort Track
Equity Issues?
Horizontal and vertical
equity
• Girls and boys from the richest 20% are more than 8 times as likely to be in grade 9 as those from the poorest 20% in SSA. Urban residents are at least 5 times more likely to be in Grade 9
• Less than 50% of children will complete lower secondary school in SSA. About 95% will reach Grade 9 in China but less than 50% in India. Many will receive less than 150 days of schooling a year, and less than four hours a day time on task
• In much of SSA and SA more than one third of children are overage by two years or more. Attendance may be less than 60% . Absenteeism is correlated with poverty and low achievement
• GPIs based on NER average 95% in SSA + S Asia; many different patterns of GPI now exist, with wide intra-country variations; middle and high enrolment regions and countries enrol more girls
• Less than 15% of schools provide more than 80% of university entrants in SSA, especially in science/engineering. Many graduates are over 25 years old
Access and Equity
Enrolments by Grade, Wealth and Gender
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Grade
% P
art
icip
ati
on Rich/Male
Rich/Female
Middle/Male
Middle/Female
Poor/Male
Poor/FemalePoor Girls
Rich Boys
Kenya
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Grade
% P
art
icip
ati
on Rich/Male
Rich/Female
Middle/Male
Middle/Female
Poor/Male
Poor/Female
Rich Boys
Poor Girls
Uganda
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Grade
% P
art
icip
ati
on Rich/Male
Rich/Female
Middle/Male
Middle/Female
Poor/Male
Poor/FemalePoor Girls
Rich Boys
Ghana
0
0.1
0.2
0.3
0.4
0.5
0.6
0.7
0.8
0.9
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9
Grade
% P
art
icip
ati
on Rich/Male
Rich/Female
Middle/Male
Middle/Female
Poor/Male
Poor/Female
Poor Girls
Rich Boys
Malawi© [email protected]
Enrolments by Age and Grade 2000-2009
0
100000
200000
300000
400000
500000
600000
700000
800000
900000
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Age
En
rolm
en
t
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
G7
Uganda
0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Age
En
rolm
en
t
G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
G7
Tanzania
0
50,000
100,000
150,000
200,000
250,000
300,000
350,000
4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20
Age
En
rolm
en
t G1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
G7
G8
Malawi
0
200000
400000
600000
800000
1000000
1200000
1400000
1600000
1800000
2000000
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17
Age
En
rolm
en
tG1
G2
G3
G4
G5
G6
G7
G8
Ethiopia
Over age and Performance in Kenya
Girls on Track?
Gender Parity and Gross Enrolment Rates –Secondary SSA
R2 = 0.5765
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110 120 130
Gross Enrolment Secondary
Gen
der
Pari
ty In
dex
More Girls
More Boys
Enrolment of Boys and Girls by Age
0
10000
20000
30000
40000
50000
60000
70000
80000
5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Age in Years
En
rolm
en
t
Boys
Girls
More Girls
More Girls
More Boys
Greater Gender Equity with Stalled Growth - Nepal
Total Enrolment and Percentage of Girls by Grade
48.1 47.8 47.2 46.7 46.2 46.0 45.6 45.5 45.6 45.9
38.235.9
33.8 32.8 32.9
30.529.5 28.7
27.5 27.6
1,659
856
713669
606535
442397
332255
1,257
531
391330
280
184 161 133 119 1120
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
G1 G2 G3 G4 G5 G6 G7 G8 G9 G10
Pe
rcenta
ge
of
Gir
ls
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2,000
En
rolm
ent
('000
)
Girls% 2005
Girls% 2004
Girls% 2003
Girls% 2002
Girls% 2001
Girls% 1999
Girls% 1997
Girls% 1995
Girls% 1993
Girls% 1990
Total 2005
Total 2004
Total 2003
Total 2002
Total 2001
Total 1999
Total 1997
Total 1995
Total 1993
Total 1990
Patterns of
Achievement
Achievement and Silent Exclusion
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
Performance Indicator
Nu
mb
er
of
Ca
nd
ida
tes
Normal Distribution
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
Performance Indicator
Nu
mb
er
of
Ca
nd
ida
tes
Negative Skew
Normal Distribution
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35 37 39 41
Performance Indicator
Nu
mb
er
of
Ca
nd
ida
tes
Positive Skew Negative Skew
Normal Distribution
Skewed Achievement Patterns
Grade 6
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31
Performance Indicator
Nu
mb
er
of
Ca
nd
ida
tes
17% in Grade 6
Pass at
Grade 6 or above
44% in Grade 6
Pass at
Grade 3 level or below
Silent Exclusion
Performance Skews Schools in Accra 2009 -
BECE
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5
Quintile of School by Average Score
Perc
en
tag
e o
f S
ch
oo
ls -
Ac
cra
Public
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Q1Q2Q3Q4Q5
Quintile of School by Average Score
Pe
rce
nta
ge
of
Sc
ho
ols
- A
cc
ra
Private
Public
Positive Skew
Negative Skew
Targets and Indicators
Trouble with Indicators - GERs and NERs
0
50
100
150
200
250
1 2 3 4 5 6
Grade
Pu
pil
s E
nro
lle
d/T
ota
l P
up
ils
in
Ag
e G
rou
p
Country A
Country B
GER Primary = 99% for Country A
GER Primary = 99% for Country B
NER Primary = 92% for Country A
if 25% of Grade 4-6 are overage
NER Primary = 92% for Country B
if 15% of Grade 4-6 are overage
GER, GPI and Out of School Children
Boys Girls Total
Enrolled 520000 480000 1000000
School Age 547368 547368 1094737
GER 95.0% 87.7% 91.3%
GPI 0.92
Unenrolled 27368 67368
Ratio Girls/Boys out of school 2.5
If 10% less girls in population
Enrolled 520000 480000 1000000
School Age 576177 518559 1094737
GER 90.3% 92.6% 91.3%
GPI 1.03
Unenrolled 56177 38559
Ratio Girls/Boys out of school 0.7© [email protected]
A 12 Point
Framework
Towards a Twelve Point Plan to Improve Access?
2 Entry to school by age six – exclusion from pre school, late entry to grade 1,
lack of birth registration, unfriendly schools
Pro-poor pre-school; entry days; birth registrations, child seeking schools
3 Drop outs – supply and demand side push and pull; poverty and costs;
relevance and motivation; locus of responsibility
Child monitoring/follow up; child seeking schools; incentives
4 Silent exclusion –over age progression; poor attendance, ill health; low
achievement; inadequate learning infrastructure
Managing progression + attendance; tracking learning; investing in quality
1. Early childhood health – stunting; debilitating infection; poor nutrition;
cognitive disadvantage
Regular school/clinic health checks; circles of support for children
5. Access to post primary –inequitable opportunity; exclusion linked to costs;
boarding; curriculum relevance; effective demand; selection; tracking
Selection; pro-poor subsidies; cost efficiencies; distance and size; demand led
6. Effective pedagogies –small schools, oversize schools and classes; mixed age
groups; cognitive matching; mixed methods; time on task; relevance
CPD and INSET; multigrade; curriculum development; school effectiveness
Towards a Twelve Point Plan to Improve Access?
7. Buildings – inadequate building stock; lack of clean water and sanitation and
services; poor infrastructure; no maintenance
School mapping; affordable construction; preventative maintenance
8. Learning materials – poor availability; low quality; few enrichment materials
and other learning and teaching aids; patterns of use; time on task
Efficient procurement/distribution of learning materials/aids
9. Teachers – poor supply and distribution; compromised time on task; limited
subject and pedagogic knowledge and skill
Improved deployment; targeted support; effective management
10. Assessment and monitoring of learning – unreliable data on participation and
learning; little tracking of children; poor evidence base for policy
Investment in data collection and monitoring; track progress; commission analyses
11. Adequate financing – unbalanced investment across sectors; gaps in financing
EFA goals; low allocations of GDP and govt budget; inefficiency, corruption
Balanced sectoral investment; control unit costs; manage growth and resources
12. Indicators of progress – current indicators aggregate participation and conceal
inequities; confidence levels often unavailable; changes ambiguous
Develop better indicators that monitor efficiency and effectiveness and equity
www.create-rpc.org
Bangladesh, Ghana, India, South AfricaChina, Kenya, Malawi, Sri Lanka
Review of Research on
Educational Access,
Transitions and Equity
Perspectives, Patterns and
Policy Implications
Keith M Lewin
Presentation slides © Create:Keith M Lewin
