Review of potential radical future transport technologies...

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Review of potential radical future transport Review of potential radical future transport 1 Review of potential radical future transport Review of potential radical future transport technologies and concepts technologies and concepts Sujith Kollamthodi, AEA Sujith Kollamthodi, AEA Final Stakeholder Conference Final Stakeholder Conference 15 March 2010, Brussels 15 March 2010, Brussels www.eutransportghg2050.eu www.eutransportghg2050.eu

Transcript of Review of potential radical future transport technologies...

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Review of potential radical future transport Review of potential radical future transport

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Review of potential radical future transport Review of potential radical future transport

technologies and conceptstechnologies and concepts

Sujith Kollamthodi, AEASujith Kollamthodi, AEA

Final Stakeholder ConferenceFinal Stakeholder Conference15 March 2010, Brussels15 March 2010, Brussels

www.eutransportghg2050.euwww.eutransportghg2050.eu

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Agenda

• Historical examples of predicting future radical transport technologies

• Selected possible future transport technologies

– Road transport

– Rail

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– Rail

– Personal transport

– Aviation

– Shipping

– Radical options to replace conventional travel

• Summary

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Predictions from 1900:

Typical High Street in the year 2000

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Predictions from 1900:

Policing and healthcare in the year 2000

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Predictions from 1900:

Tourism in the year 2000

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Overview

• Past experience shows that predicting the future is problematic

• Difficult (if not impossible) to predict future innovations that haven’t yet been developed

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• However, it’s worth considering possible future options and developments as the principles underpinning some radical ideas may be taken up in the future

• In many cases technologies will be developed for reasons other than reducing GHG emissions

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In-road vehicle charging technology

• Potentially solves the “range

anxiety” problem associated

with electric vehicles

• Would allow vehicles batteries

to be lighter and cheaper

• But – is less efficient than direct

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• But – is less efficient than direct

charging

• Costly changes to road

infrastructure required

Impact on GHG emissions ���� ����

Potential for widespread deployment by 2050 Medium

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Autonomously driven vehicles and road trains

• Driverless vehicles could

improve operational efficiency

by removing human control

• Technology could allow cars to

be pooled together on

motorways, reducing

aerodynamic drag, improving

operational efficiency

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operational efficiency

• May not be immediately

acceptable to the public

Impact on GHG emissions ����

Potential for widespread deployment Medium/high

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Magnetic levitation (Mag-lev) trains

• Mag-lev eliminates frictional losses

allowing trains to travel at much higher

speeds

• Potential for modal shift from short-haul

aviation

• Mag-lev systems already exist in China,

USA, and Japan

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USA, and Japan

• However, significant barriers to

implementation – high costs due to need

for new infrastructure and rolling stock

• CO2 emissions (gCO2/seat km)

Impact on GHG emissions ���� ���� ����

Potential for widespread deployment by 2050

Medium

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Advanced personal transport concepts

• Rocket-powered helicopters and

personal jetpacks

• Offers an alternative to

walking/cycling – hence likely to

increase emissions if taken up

• Low feasibility for

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• Low feasibility for

implementation – number of

safety issues

Impact on GHG emissions ���� ����

Potential for widespread deployment by 2050 Low

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Advanced aviation concepts

• Advanced aircraft designs (e.g. closed wing

designs or blended wing bodies) could

significant improve fuel efficiency

• Closed wind and blended body wing (BWB)

design could improve fuel efficiency by up to

10% and up to 30% respectively

• Structural design issues would need to be

Closed wing aircraft

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• Structural design issues would need to be

overcome

• Hybrid airship designs - reduced emissions

but much slower than conventional

aeroplanes

Blended wing body aircraft

Hybrid airship

Impact on GHG emissions ���� (closed wing aircraft)

���� ���� ���� (BWB)

���� ���� (hybrid airship)

Potential for widespread deployment by 2050 Medium

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Advanced shipping concepts

• Number of possibilities for improving the

efficiency of marine vessels

• Flettner rotors, windmill ships, kite-assisted

power, and solar power are all possibilities

• Projected increases in fossil fuel prices may

makes these types of technologies more

attractive in the future

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attractive in the future

Impact on GHG emissions ���� (Windmill ships)

���� ���� (Flettner rotors)

���� ���� ���� (Kite-assisted power)

Potential for widespread deployment Medium

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Radical concepts for replacing conventional

travel

• Holographic telepresencing – could offer the

experience of being in a meeting without

physically being there

• Virtual tourism could in theory offer people the

opportunity to explore the world without travelling

• Teleportation – theoretically the most radical

future option for transport

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future option for transport

• Many scientific and psychological barriers still to

be overcome

Impact on GHG emissions

���� (holographic telepresencing)

���� ���� (virtual tourism)

���� ���� ���� (teleportation)

Potential for widespread deployment

Low (teleportation, virtual tourism)

Medium (holographic telepresencing)

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Summary

• Should be wary of predicting future technologies – historic predictions have rarely been correct

• Most promising radical options for cutting emissions likely to be in the road transport sector

• Maglev trains could offer significant GHG savings due to modal shift but large cost barriers

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shift but large cost barriers

• Aviation technologies unlikely to be deployed to a sufficient degree by 2050 to make a significant difference

• Wind-based shipping options likely to be deployable in medium/long terms with significant emissions abatement potential

• Radical options for replacing conventional travel currently suffer from both scientific and psychological barriers

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QuestionsQuestions

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