Review of National Climate Outlook Forums

Pone Nyet Khaing & Mitesh V. Sawant

RIMES

25th September 2019

Regional Climate Outlook Forum (RCOF)

National COF /Monsoon Forum

Application of Forecast Information by User SectorsLo

cal

Nat

ion

al a

nd

Su

b N

atio

n

R

egi

on

al

Facilitates forecast-based institutional decisions: Capacity building of users

Enhancing forecast communication and responding to user requirements: Capacity Building of NMHs.

Complementing mechanisms (Location-specific agro-advisory system, capacity building of local institutions)

Facilitates forecast-based farmers decisions

MONSOON FORUM PROCESS

MONSOON FORUM PROCESSGENERATION OF

FORECAST

CONVENING MONSOON FORUM WITH SECTORAL

STAKEHOLDERS

ANALYSES OF FORECAST-BASED POTENTIAL RISKS

AND OPPORTUNITIES, AND MANAGEMENT

STRATEGIES

REPORTING BACK TO INSTITUTIONS FOR

IMPLEMENTATION OF INFORMED PLANS &

DECISIONS

MONITORING AND ADJUSTMENTS IN

DECISIONS, AS NECESSARY

DOCUMENTATION OF THE SEASON AND

PROVISION OF FEEDBACK AND

RECOMMENDATIONS

Improved products and services based on user demands

Institutional participation

Improved analyses and application, based on experiences

Specialized Expert System for Agro Meteorological Early Warning (SESAME): Evolution

dem

and

Tool development

&further

expansion

Customization to select areas

Mobile app

NyaungOoMonywa

Major Objectives of NCOFs• Review of previous season • Generating outlook for upcoming season and

discussing its consequences• Sharing of experiences by users on application of

seasonal outlook and subsequent forecasts • Provide key recommendations to NMHSs based on

user experiences and requirements (representing the whole user community they are working for)

• Discuss the measures to be taken for next season, and steps required for implementing these measures.

Current status of NCOFs in South Asia

• Participation is increasing in most of the countries

• User’s effective involvement is still missing or weak in most of the NCOFs.

Therefore need to develop certain indicators to assess the status and identify requirements to enhance NMHSs and user capacities.

Mo

nso

on

Fo

rum

in 2

01

9

(So

uth

Asi

a)

Bangladesh

(11th NCOF)

Bhutan

(5th NCOF)

Myanmar

(22nd NMF)

Nepal

(7th MF)

Pakistan

(7th NMF)

Sri Lanka (20th MF)

Maldives (5th NMF)

Key Recommendations for NCOFs

Monsoon Forum Process

NMHS

Users

Monsoon Forum Process

Deepening of Monsoon Forum

Process

User Specific Forums – planning dialogue

Sub-nation and local level

Mechanism to follow up forecast based preparedness actions and Economic Analysis for application of seasonal outlook and other timescales generated by NMHS

Refinement of Monsoon Forum

Process

Review and Update Objectives and agenda of the forum

Preparation; presentation file format for user and NMHS and identify focal

Collecting feedback and recommendation and regular updates of it at the forum

NMHS

- Agro-Met forecast parameters and its skills

- Systematic Forecast Verification of forecast products in different time scales

Skills

- Rainfall intensity and amount in nowcasting or severe weather warning

- Monsoon Onset and Withdraw Date forecast

- Agro-Met Bulletin/Outlook parameters

- Severe weather outlook in mid and long-range forecast

Forecast Parameters

- User Specific Forecast

- Location Specific

- Multi-timescales with regular updates

- Summer Outlook

Forecast Products

Mid- and Long- range Forecast as per climatic zone rather than Administrative boundaries

Esta

blis

hm

en

t o

f Ef

fect

ive

Fe

ed

bac

k M

ech

anis

m

Use

rs C

apac

ity

Bu

ildin

g an

d

De

man

ds

Capacity Building in Multi-timescales Forecast Translation

and Application

Regular Dialogue with Information Providers and

users

Impact Based Forecasting; Agriculture, Health, Fishery

and Disaster Management etc.

Training Capacity Building improvement

Support in organizing Monsoon Forums

Process on Co-development of DSS

Capacity Building on Impact based forecasting

Twin Capacity Development in Agri Sector in Myanmar and Sri Lanka

TWIN CAPACITY DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

FARMERS

SESAME FARM SCHOOLEnhancing farmers’

receptivity and capacity in ingesting multi-timescales

information into plans and decisions

Facilitating regular discussions between farmers, extension

workers and DMH for feedback and further capacity

development

Development of decision-support system for translating forecast into crop-relevant information

Facilitating easy access of advisories through sms, Facebook, and mobile application

Facilitating feedback

Capacity building process is imbedded in DMH and Ministry of Agriculture. RIMES serves as a facilitating institution

Application of information for resources and risks management

Sri Lanka FARM09 -12 September 2019

Indicators Bangladesh Bhutan Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

Monsoon Forum Objectives are clearly defined and they are reflected in the agenda

NMHS has developed presentation template for forecast verification and outlook.

NMHS has developed a two way platform with its users (monsoon forum participants) to share forecast updates on regular basis

NMHS has developed a Presentation Guide for User to share their experienced based recommendations from previous season

Regular attendance by user sector representative

Users are sharing their experience based recommendations at the forum

Existence of mechanism to follow up Forecast based Preparedness Actions discussed at the fourm

Rating Score is from 1 to 5; 1 – Non-existence, 2 – Existence but need to update, 3 – Satisfactory, 4 – Good, 5 - Excellent

Any Questions !!

Thank You

Slide 15- 27 are for your Reference

(Needs to Finalize these Indicators to assess Monsoon Forum Status)

Indicators Bangladesh Bhutan Myanmar Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka

Monsoon Forum Objectives are clearly defined and they are reflected in the agenda

NMHS has developed presentation template for forecast verification and outlook.

NMHS has developed a two way platform with its users (monsoon forum participants) to share forecast updates on regular basis

NMHS has developed a Presentation Guide for User to share their experienced based recommendations from previous season

Regular attendance by user sector representative

Users are sharing their experience based recommendations at the forum

Existence of mechanism to follow up Forecast based Preparedness Actions discussed at the fourm

Rating Score is from 1 to 5; 1 – Non-existence, 2 – Existence but need to update, 3 – Satisfactory, 4 – Good, 5 - Excellent

11th National Monsoon Forum, Bangladesh

User Feedback and Recommendations • Enhance the capacity of the National Interactive Voice Response System (1090) operated by FFWC

and BMD with support from Department of Disaster Management. Currently the capacity of the IVR system is 600 calls per minute which is insufficient for catering the need of the end users before and during the crisis periods.

• Recommended to include stakeholders from exclusive economic zones of Bangladesh and bring these nationally important industrial clusters under location specific forecasting coverage. Similar effort is also requested for 12 mega projects currently ongoing in Cox’s Bazar district.

• Issue shorter-medium range forecast for the marine fishermen and develop warning communication system for artisanal fishermen.

• Generate nowcasting for thunderstorm and lightning. Farmers will be one of the major end users of this forecast. In recent past, lightning hazard has emerged as a greater threat to Bangladeshi farmers and the government is planning to build shelters for farmers considering lighting hazard. A nowcasting and short range warning and associated awareness raising programs can contribute to government’s plan for reducing risk from lightning.

11th National Monsoon Forum, Bangladesh

User Feedback and Recommendations • Generate impact based forecasting to specify the impacts for different locations (districts and upazila levels) and

sectors through visually intuitive and understandable graphics. Secondary catalysts or impacts should be considered and stakeholders should be made aware of it. For example, a storm surge forecast should elaborate if the moon phase condition is likely to intensify the surge height or a cyclone landfall forecast should also specify if the rainfall during the aftermath is going to cause a cascading hazard e.g. flash floods, landslides.

• Conduct research to innovate mechanism for warning deep sea fishermen.• Build capacity of INGOs, NGOs and UN affiliated national and international professionals working with Rohingya

Refugee crisis in Cox’s Bazar district, to assess a potential hazard threat, interpret the forecast and anticipate the potential impacts. BMD and RIMES can work together with the relevant stakeholders for capacity building programs in this regard.

• Train community volunteers in Cox’s Bazar on weather and flood forecast interpretation and dissemination who can support communicating such information to refugees.

• Provide as detailed information as available in the seasonal forecast, e.g. the monsoon outlook issued by the BMD, the monthly or three monthly outlook etc. For example, outlook for each month should be provided in case of seasonal forecast and proper explanation of normal values and subsequent deviations should be provided. In case of monthly outlook the stakeholders demanded to have weekly outlooks incorporated.

11th National Monsoon Forum, Bangladesh

User Feedback and Recommendations • Develop storm surge and tidal flood forecasting system for coastal areas of Bangladesh. Currently, there is no

operational storm surge forecasting system in Bangladesh despite some earlier pilot initiatives. On the other hand, FFWC’s existing flood forecasting system doesn’t have coverage in the coastal region; as a result, there is no early warning system for tidal flooding which is a growing concern for the coastal communities at risk.

• Develop nowcasting system for inland water navigational routes and pilot systems for real-time communication to sailing vessels involving the crews on board.

• Disseminate early warning to the tourists through tourist police and travel agents especially for the tourist hotspots, prone to hazards.

• Capacity of media representatives should be built with an aim to developing a pool of weather reporters dedicatedly working for forecast and warning communication. It was strongly recommended by the media representatives to organize a half day ‘Media Forum’ during future monsoon forums. The ‘Media Forum’ may also meet periodically to ensure their role in dissemination and communication.

• In order to avoid misinterpretation of forecasts and spreading of false information, BMD should organize press conferences more frequently and request for rejoinder where applicable. BMD might consider generating special bulletins for media and assign a team or person for communicating with the media.

22nd National Monsoon Forum, Myanmar

• Users advised DMH to do detail verification of forecast and actual condition (for states/regions) at Review of previous season

• Users advise to provide Mandalay Region forecast in two sub-region (divided the region into two as per climatic condition) in forecast and verification

• To increase number of observation stations in remote area

• To install River water level monitoring station at Mone and Myint Thar River as it is prone to flood and high sedimentation rate on yearly basis

• Education Department ask participants to join both for climate change adaptation and mitigation activities such as plantation and they are ready to assist for awareness raising program for disaster preparedness

22nd National Monsoon Forum, Myanmar

• There is a need to install river water level monitoring gauge or observation station at the upstream of Mrauk U town as the area is treasure of the nation and prone to flood. Installation of the gauges will give some lead time to prevent damages to town and its villages.

• Suggestion to develop flood hazard map of the towns (flood prone township), so that respective disaster management authority would be able to use for effective disaster management.

• Users request DMH to provide rainfall forecast including Rainfall pattern, distribution and intensity forecast as it is essential for forestry, irrigation and water resources management sector

• Untimely rainfall warning is one of the useful information products for DOA and farmers but they need location specific untimely rainfall warning to effectively utilize the information

• Organizing state and region forum or state/region wide preparedness planning using seasonal information

• More community representatives should be invited to the forum to voice out their needs and experiences

22nd National Monsoon Forum, Myanmar

• Request to provide maximum temperature forecast (for summer) and evaporation forecast (monthly, 10 days and daily basis)

• Reservoir water storage level information should be shared in experience sharing session by IWUMD

• Forecast information (long range) should be shared with table format • Sectors/department should bring issues and demand and coordinate with DMH to address

the issues • Continuation of monsoon forum at different level (national to local level) and capacity

building on forecast translation and application to users must have done.• Provide location specific multi-timescales forecast information (higher spatial and temporal

resolution forecast is requested by users)• Region wide average rainfall on monthly basis is requested by user; for them to analyse

potential impact to their sector• Summer season forecast and nowcasting for short-forming hazards in summer season • ECD has shown their high interest to continuous participation in the monsoon forum

process

7th National Monsoon Forum, Pakistan

• The following recommendations are gathered from forum participants;• Recommendations to Forum Process are;

– Monsoon Forum Participants – participants suggested to invite • end users; farmers• media and some department such as Forest Department• Should invite local agencies and government representatives whom involve in decision making

process to taken; how they make use of seasonal forecast and their mitigation steps and strategies

– Forum Duration and Discussion Time: • To provide more time allocated for discussion and Q&A• To increase Number of monsoon forum days (minimum 2 days)

– Others:• Local langue is advised• Regular convening of monsoon forum• Conduct sub-national monsoon forum with local government

7th National Monsoon Forum, Pakistan

• Recommendations to PMD – Installation of AWS in wide area (telemetric system and AWS is required to install in wide areas)– Increase number of Radars, AWS and Telemetric network– Capacity building training to forecasters to enhance their forecasting capabilities

• Recommendations from Agro-Met Department– There are 34 Agromet Observatories and department recommends to expand the observatories;

one observatory for every districts in Pakistan– Upgrade existing Agromet Observatories – department highlights that some stations’ key

instruments need to be replaced with new and standardized instruments. Eg. Mercury barometers are to be replaced with non-mercury barometers as per WMO guideline. Grass minimum thermometers, soil moisture sensors etc. are missing in the station.

– Increase spatial resolution – currently Agro-met forecast is issued at division (administrative unit comprising 4-5 districts) level and department wants to provide forecast up to sub-district level.

7th National Monsoon Forum, Nepal

• Agricultural sector requested to provide multi-timescales forecast information; short range, medium range and long-range information (3 days, 10 days, monthly and seasonal forecast). – Long Range Forecast; the sector wants the information of Onset and Withdrawal

of monsoon, breaks of monsoon rain, occurrence of heavy rain and spell (Dry) in monsoon season forecast

– Hail storm potential at the commencement of summer– Rainfall, cold wave, onset of cold wave, strong wind and foggy days for winter

season forecast– Special parameters for agro-met forecast; sunshine hours, cloud cover,

precipitation (amount, intensity, frequency and distribution), evaporation, soil moisture, soil temperature (different depth), soil conductivity, soil permeability, leaf wetness and hydrological parameters

7th National Monsoon Forum, Nepal

• To make sure the participation of Government representative in the whole day monsoon forum event so that they would participate in the discussion and would aware of the issues, demands and recommendations discussed in the forum.

• To develop R&D branch under DHM• To provide location specific forecast and timely high resolution and

quantitative forecast (probabilistic forecast at different time scales with a varying updating frequency) for agricultural sector

• To continue providing Agro-met 7-day forecast for 28 districts• More reliable seasonal forecast and timely update of multi-

timescales forecast

20th National Monsoon Forum, Sri Lanka

• Request to provide monsoon onset dates and forecast for the Inter-Monsoon rainfall in quantity– Range of average – Monsoon onset date for Monsoon Season

• To establish a platform for information sharing for weather updates; 3 days and 10 days forecast– Facebook and website – Presentation Available products of DOM and services (10-15 minutes)

• Since monthly and seasonal forecast information is very important for DOI, the department requested to update the said forecast on a regular basis.– Main stakeholders – group – to get regular updates

• The Disaster Management Center requested to access the rainfall intensity in case of severe weather event and impact-based forecasting based on possible scenarios – RIMES has a system – SMART – customize for Sri Lanka – Severe weather event – DOM provides vulnerability map, extreme events and provide impacts (experimental stage) and will

further capacitate DOM on this from RIMES– Discuss further with DOM and DMC for collaboration

• To provide forecast for probability of extreme events in seasonal forecast if possible – Sub-seasonal forecast is ok (monthly and seasonal forecast not possible)

20th National Monsoon Forum, Sri Lanka

• To distribute seasonal outlook two weeks before the forum– Yes, noted, DOM depends on SASCOF consensus outlook and will provide accordingly

• To provide detail forecast for Macto Reservior area (Hydro Catchment area)– Yes, noted, will provide– RIMES Hydrology team will assist in coordination with DOI (Rainfall forecast – WRF but later will use DOM forecast – will integrate

the products of DOM to the system developed with DOI)

• To provide forecast at the beginning of Yala and Maha Cultivation season– Noted, DOM will discuss and provide

• To publish monsoon forum report including validation of previous season, outlook, sectoral analysis, plan and recommendations.– Yes, will do

• To disseminate monsoon outlook to general public using mass media– Well taken the suggestion

• To provide Heat Index forecast for health sector– DOM is already providing Heat Index forecast

• To provide sector specific forecast for Fishery Sector – DOM provides 10 forecasts daily –

• Follow up with DOF to further clarify