REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT 2010 2012-02-14¢ 2 Review of MaRitiMe tRanspoRt 2010 A....
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UNITED NATIONS CONFERENCE ON TRADE AND DEVELOPMENT
REVIEW OF MARITIME TRANSPORT
Report by the UNCTAD secretariat
UNITED NATIONS New York and Geneva, 2010
DEVELOPMENTS IN INTERNATIONAL
1 The contraction in the global economy and in merchandise trade during 2009 has changed the landscape of the shipping industry dramatically. A global recovery is currently under way, but it is uneven, slower compared to the recoveries that followed previous recent recessions, and challenged by numerous uncertainties and fragile global economic conditions. As demand for maritime transport services derives from global economic growth and the need to carry international trade, shipping and its recovery remain subject to developments in the wider economy.
This chapter covers developments from January 2009 to June 2010, and where possible up to September 2010. Section A reviews the overall performance of the global economy in 2009, and points to some general trends influencing the outlook for 2010. Section B considers developments in world seaborne trade volumes – including tanker, dry bulk and container – and highlights some emerging global challenges which are affecting maritime transport and are growing in importance, such as security, environmental protection and climate change, and energy sustainability and affordability. Section C looks more closely at developments affecting energy-related bulk cargoes, namely oil, gas and coal, which have important implications for tanker trade, bunker fuel prices, maritime transport costs and climate change.
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A. World economic SituAtion And ProSPectS
1. World economic growth1
Following the global financial crisis of late 2008, the year 2009 recorded the first and deepest drop in global output since the 1930s, with world gross domestic product (GDP) contracting by 1.9 per cent (table 1.1).
The downturn was broad-based, with countries experiencing an exceptionally synchronized reversal in the trend of GDP growth (fig. 1.1 (a)). Developed economies and countries with economies in transition recorded the largest contractions, of 3.4 per cent and 6.3 per cent respectively. Developing economies have been affected too, with growth in these economies decelerating to 2.4 per cent – a much slower rate compared to 2007 and 2008. However, this figure conceals differences in the performance of individual countries. While GDP growth in China and India
Source: UNCTAD. Trade and Development Report 2010. Table 1.1: World output growth, 1991–2010. a Calculations for country aggregates are based on GDP at constant 2000 dollars. b Preliminary estimates. c Forecast.
Table 1.1. World economic growth, 2007–2010a (annual percentage change)
Region/country 1991–2003 Aveage
2007 2008 2009b 2010c
WORLD 2.8 3.9 1.7 -1.9 3.5
Developed economies 2.5 2.5 0.3 -3.4 2.2
United States 3.3 2.1 0.4 -2.4 2.9
Japan 1.0 2.4 -1.2 -5.2 2.5
European Union (27) 2.3 2.8 0.7 -4.2 1.1
Germany 1.7 2.5 1.3 -4.9 1.5
France 2.0 2.4 0.2 -2.6 1.2
Italy 1.6 1.4 -1.3 -5.1 0.8
United Kingdom 2.9 2.6 0.5 -4.9 1.1
Developing economies 4.6 7.8 5.4 2.4 6.9
China 10.0 13.0 9.6 8.7 10.0
India 5.8 9.6 5.1 6.6 7.9
Brazil 2.5 6.1 5.1 -0.2 7.6
South Africa 2.4 5.5 3.7 -1.8 3.0
Least Developed Countries (LDCs) 4.2 8.4 5.4 4.7 5.7
Transition economies .. 8.5 5.4 -6.3 4.1
Russian Federation .. 8.1 5.6 -7.9 4.3
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Japan. The outlook for developing countries is much brighter, with China, India and Brazil leading the way. GDP in the transition economies is expected to grow, too, although it is still expected to lag behind developing regions and pre-crisis levels.4
Industrial production – also a leading indicator of demand for maritime transport services – has recovered from the fall in 2009 which dampened demand for raw materials and energy, both mainstays of demand for shipping services. The correlation between industrial production, economic growth, global merchandise trade and seaborne trade volumes is shown in figure 1.1 (b). Signs of a slow recovery can be observed, with the four indicators moving upwards in 2010.
By the first quarter of 2010, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) Industrial Production Index had grown marginally (to 97.3, from 92.5 in 2009),5 reflecting, in particular, reduced consumer confidence and subdued employment in advanced economies. In contrast, industrial activity in emerging developing economies was expanding rapidly, at rates which – in some cases
remained positive (8.7 per cent and 6.6 per cent respectively), other emerging developing economies, such as Brazil and South Africa, suffered GDP contractions. The least developed countries (LDCs) have fared better as their economies have continued to grow, albeit at a slower rate (4.7 per cent; down from 5.4 per cent in 2008), though still faster than the average growth over the period 1993–2001. For these countries, a decline in economic growth constitutes a considerable setback to the attainment of the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), including the goal of poverty alleviation. By the end of 2009, developing countries had suffered an income loss of at least $750 billion,2 and, by the end of 2010, the crisis will have increased the number of people in extreme poverty by 64 million.3
Global GDP is forecast to expand by 3.5 per cent in 2010, with the recovery by country varying in speed, and with the major drag on global growth coming from developed economies and related concerns about fiscal sustainability and large public debt (e.g. Greece and Ireland). In the United States, the larger scale of the fiscal stimulus is expected to help achieve a relatively better performance than in Europe and
Figure 1.1. (a) World GDP growth, 2004–2010, selected countries (annual percentage change)
Source: UNCTAD. Trade and Development Report 2010. Table 1.1. World output growth, 1991–2010.
2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
United States EUJapanIndiaChina South AfricaBrazilRussian Federation
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– were surpassing the pre-crisis levels. Improved industrial confidence6 and heavy public spending in support of demand resulted in China’s industrial production growing at an average of 16 per cent during the second quarter of 2010. By comparison, China’s industrial production grew at an annual rate of 11.1 per cent in 2009, and 13.0 per cent in 2008.7 Activity in the Republic of Korea also expanded during the second quarter of 2010, with industrial production increasing at an average of 19.4 per cent, as compared with 3.3 per cent in 2008, and zero production growth in 2009.8 During the second quarter of 2010, the industrial production index for Brazil averaged 115.3 (100.8 in the second quarter of 2009), while the index for India averaged 147.7 (132.3 in the second quarter of 2009).9
In sum, a global recovery is under way, but it is uneven, slower compared to the recoveries that followed previous recent recessions, and challenged by the fragile conditions prevailing in most
advanced economies. With growth heavily driven by governmental fiscal and monetary intervention, the timing of the winding up of public stimulus packages is crucial to the sustainability of the global recovery. These developments have a direct bearing on global merchandise trade, including seaborne trade.
2. merchandise trade10
The global financial crisis of late 2008 and the consequent economic downturn have been referred to as the “Great Trade Collapse”.11 The year 2009 recorded the sharpest trade decline in more than 70 years, with world merchandise export volumes estimated by UNCTAD to have plummeted by 13.7 per cent. In terms of value, world merchandise exports fell by 22.9 per cent. The total loss in world trade over 2008–2010, compared to what the situation would have been without the crisis (at the trend growth rates)
Figure 1.1. (b) Indices for world GDP, the OECD Industrial Production Index, world merchandise trade and world seaborne trade, 1990–2010 (1990=100)
1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
World merchandise trade World seaborne trade World GDP OECD Industrial Production Index
Source: UNCTAD secretariat, on the basis of OECD Main Economic Indicators, May 2010; the UNCTAD Trade and Development Report 2010; the UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport, various issues; WTO’s, International Trade Statistics 2009, Table A 1a, and the WTO press release issued in March 2010, entitled “World trade 2009, prospects for 2010”. WTO merchandise trade data (volumes) are derived from customs values deflated by standard unit values and adjusted price index for electronic goods. The 2010 index for seaborne trade is calculated on the basis of the growth rate forecast by Clarkson Research Services.
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is estimated at $5.0 trillion, or about 12.7