November 21, 2016

TFG PresentationReview of 2016 Elections

and the Lame Duck Session

www.thefergusongroup.com

Overview• 2016 Elections

– The Administration– The House– The Senate– Congressional Leadership and Committee Races

• Lame Duck Session– Appropriations– National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)– 21st Century Cures Act– Water Resources Development Act (WRDA)Wildcards

• Energy Policy Modernization Act • U.S. Postal Service overhaul legislation• Child nutrition reauthorization

The Administration 232

306

Source: Bloomberg Government

The Administration

• 45th President of U.S.: Donald J. Trump– Electoral Count: 306 – 232– Did not win popular vote

• Hillary Clinton now the fifth U.S. presidential candidate to win the popular vote but lose the election

• Inauguration Day: January 20, 2017• Transition team has been working for several

months to ensure smooth succession of power

Source: “Presidential Transition Guide.” Partnership for Public Service’s Center for Presidential Transition.

Key Transition Milestones

The Administration • 2018 Budget Request

– By law, President’s Budget must be submitted by first Monday of February (Feb. 6.)

– Past three outgoing administrations submitted transition budgets to Congress to help with next budget submission

– Past several administrations have not met the February statutory budget submission deadline

– Budget usually not late enough to cause significant delays in appropriations process

The Administration • Executive Branch Appointments

– Responsible for making 4,000 appointments to Executive Branch

– Much speculation about appointments for key positions; only a few official announcements:

• Attorney General: Senator Jeff Sessions (R-AL)• CIA Director: Rep. Mike Pompeo (R-KS)• W.H. Chief of Staff: Reince Priebus (RNC Chair)• W.H. Senior Counsel, Chief Strategist: Stephen Bannon• National Security Advisor: Lt. Gen. Michael Flynn

The Administration • First 100 Days

– Plan can be separated into two parts:1. 18 measures Trump would address on Day 1, many through executive actions, including:

– Proposal to term-limit Members of Congress– Remove restrictions on domestic oil and natural gas production– Renegotiation or withdraw from NAFTA– Requirement that for every new regulation two must be eliminated

2. 10 legislative proposals Trump said he would introduce to Congress and pass within the first 100 days, including:

– Tax reform plan– U.S. – Mexico border wall– Repeal and replace Affordable Care Act– Illegal immigration plan– $1 trillion infrastructure plan– “Drain the swamp” reforms

The House194

Source: Bloomberg Government

The House• Of the 388 House incumbents running for re-

election, only 8 were defeated (6 Republicans and 2 Democrats)

• 55 incoming freshman • Three outstanding races:

– Not called:• CA (49): Darrell Issa (R-incumbent) v. Doug Applegate (D)

– Runoffs (Elections to be held Dec. 10)• LA (3): Clay Higgins (R) v. Scott Angelle (R)• LA (4): Marshall Jones (D) v. Mike Johnson (R)

The House• Republican LeadershipGOP leaders were elected unanimously on November 15

– Speaker: Paul Ryan (WI)– Majority Leader: Kevin McCarthy (CA)– Whip: Steve Scalise (LA)

• Democratic Leadership– Democratic leadership elections have been delayed until the

week of Nov. 30– Rep. Tim Ryan (OH) is officially challenging current Minority

Leader Nancy Pelosi (CA) for the Minority Leader position• Republican and Democratic steering committees will

meet in December to make committee leadership and membership selections

The HouseCommittee 114th Congress Chairman Likely 115th Chairman 114th Ranking Member Likely 115th Ranking Member

Agriculture Michael Conaway (TX) same Collin Peterson (MN) same

Appropriations Hal Rogers (KY) – term-limited Rodney Frelinghuysen (NJ) Nita Lowey (NY) same

Armed Services Mac Thornberry (TX) same Adam Smith (WA) same

Budget Tom Price (GA) same Chris Van Hollen (MD) John Yarmuth (KY)

Education and the Workforce John Kline (MN) – retiring Virginia Foxx (NC) Bobby Scott (VA) same

Energy and Commerce Fred Upton (MI) – term-limited John Shimkus (IL) or Greg Walden (OR) Frank Pallone (NJ) same

Ethics Charlie Dent (PA) same Linda Sanchez (CA) same

Financial Services Jeb Hensarling (TX) same Maxine Waters (CA) same

Foreign Affairs Ed Royce (CA) same Eliot Engel (NY) same

Homeland Security Michael McCaul (TX) same Bennie Thompson (MS) same

Intelligence Devin Nunes (CA) same Adam Schiff (CA) same

Judiciary Bob Goodlatte (VA) same John Conyers (MI) same

Natural Resources Rob Bishop (UT) same Raul Grijalva (AZ) same

Oversight and Government Reform Jason Chaffetz (UT) same Elijah Cummings (MD) same

Rules Pete Sessions (TX) same Louise Slaughter (NY) same

Science, Space and Technology Lamar Smith (TX) same Eddie Bernice Johnson (TX) same

Small Business Steve Chabot (OH) same Nydia Velazquez (NY) same

Transportation and Infrastructure Bill Shuster (PA) same Peter DeFazio (OR) same

Veterans’ Affairs Jeff Miller (FL) – term-limited & retiring

Gus Bilirakis (FL), Mike Coffman (CO),Doug Lamborn (CO) or Phil Roe (TN)

Mark Takano (CA) same

Ways and Means Kevin Brady (TX) same Sander Levin (MI) same

The Senate

Source: Bloomberg Government

The Senate

The Senate• Republicans retained control of Senate but lost several seats• Senate currently has 54 Republicans, 44 Democrats and 2 Independents

who caucus with Democrats – after November 8, Republicans are set to control at least 51 seats while Democrats will hold at least 48 (one runoff election in LA – Dec. 10)

• Republican majority still remains below 60-vote threshold needed to overcome a filibuster

• New Senators – Kamala Harris (D-CA), replacing Senator Barbara Boxer (D) – Tammy Duckworth (D-IL), current House Representative for the 8th

district, defeated current Senator Mark Kirk (R) – Todd Young (R-IN), current House Representative for the 9th district,

replacing Senator Dan Coats (R) – Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), current House Representative for the 8th

district, replacing Senator Barbara Mikulski (D) – Catherine Cortez Mastro (D-NV), replacing Senator Harry Reid (D) – Maggie Hassan (D-NH), defeated current Senator Kelly Ayotte (R)

The Senate• Republican LeadershipGOP leaders were elected unanimously on November 16

– Majority Leader: Mitch McConnell (KY)– Whip: John Cornyn (TX)

• Democratic LeadershipDemocratic leaders were elected unanimously on November 16

– Minority Leader: Chuck Schumer (NY)– Whip: Richard Durbin (IL)

• Democrats have made their selections for committee leadership positions. Republicans have yet to make their selections.

The SenateCommittee 114th Congress Chairman Likely 115th Chairman 114th Ranking Member 115th Ranking Member

Aging Susan Collins (ME) same Claire McCaskill (MO) Bob Casey (PA)

Agriculture, Nutrition & Forestry Pat Roberts (KS) same Debbie Stabenow (MI) same

Appropriations Thad Cochran (MS) same Barbara Mikulski (MD) – retiring Patrick Leahy (VT)Armed Services John McCain (AZ) same Jack Reed (RI) same

Banking, Housing & Urban Affairs Richard Shelby (AL)term-limited as chairman Mike Crapo (ID) Sherrod Brown (OH) same

Budget Mike Enzi (WY) same Bernie Sanders (VT) sameCommerce, Science & Transportation John Thune (SD) same Bill Nelson (FL) same

Energy & Natural Resources Lisa Murkowski (AK) same Maria Cantwell (WA) same

Environment and Public Works Jim Inhofe (OK)term-limited as chairman

John Barrasso (WY) Barbara Boxer (CA) – retiring Tom Carper (DE)

Ethics Johnny Isakson (GA) same Barbara Boxer (CA) – retiring Chris Coons (DE) Finance Orrin Hatch (UT) same Ron Wyden (OR) sameForeign Relations Bob Corker (TN) same Ben Cardin (MD) sameHealth, Education, Labor & Pensions Lamar Alexander (TN) same Patty Murray (WA) Same

Homeland Security & Govt. Affairs Ron Johnson (WI) same Tom Carper (DE) Claire McCaskill (MO)

Indian Affairs John Barrasso (WY) John Hoeven (ND) Jon Tester (MT) Tom Udall (NM)Intelligence Richard Burr (NC) same Diane Feinstein (CA) Mark Warner (VA)Judiciary Charles Grassley (IA) same Patrick Leahy (VT) Dianne Feinstein (CA)Rules and Administration Roy Blunt (MO) same Charles Schumer (NY) Amy Klobuchar (MN)Small Business & Entrepreneurship David Vitter (LA) – retiring Jim Risch (ID) Jeanne Shaheen (NH) same

Veterans' Affairs Johnny Isakson (GA) same Richard Blumenthal (CT) Jon Tester (MT)

Lame Duck Session• Appropriations

– Current CR expires Dec. 9– CR through March 31; expected to pass– Flint funding may be included to help move WRDA bill

• National Defense Authorization Act (NDAA)– Yearly authorization for defense programs

• 21st Century Cures Act– Biomedical research funding; may also include mental health funding

• Water Resources Development Act (WRDA)– Expected to move but remains unclear whether clean water and drinking

water provisions (included in Senate WRDA) will be in final billWildcards

– Energy Policy Modernization Act – U.S. Postal Service overhaul legislation– Child nutrition reauthorization