Reut Methodology Day. Relevancy Gaps Closing Relevancy Gaps Identifying Relevancy Gaps Why Relevancy...

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Transcript of Reut Methodology Day. Relevancy Gaps Closing Relevancy Gaps Identifying Relevancy Gaps Why Relevancy...

  • Reut Methodology Day

  • Relevancy GapsClosing Relevancy GapsIdentifying Relevancy GapsWhy Relevancy Gaps arent closedHow Relevancy Gaps formMindsetDivergent Reality

  • How Societies choose to Fail or SucceedHostile NeighborsDecreased support from FriendsClimate Change Environmental Damage How Society Responds to Problems

  • The Case of the Greenland NorseClimate Change: Little Ice Age Hostile Neighbors: The InnuitArrive 1000 CE; Disappear 1450 Approx 5,000 people in 2 SettlementsCommunal, violent hierarchical & conservativeMore European than EuropeTrade Disengagement from Europe Environmental Damage Inability to Adapt

  • Why Societies CollapseDont AnticipateNo prior experienceReason by false analogyDont Perceive Distant ManagersSome problems imperceptible Slow Trend ConcealedDont Attempt to SolveStatus Quo supports deeply held valueRational Bad BehaviorGroup Denial (Work Avoidance)Dislike those who complainDont Solve (Perceive & Attempt)Efforts too little too lateSolution exists but unviable Beyond present capacity to solve

  • Preventing Predictable SurprisesProblem AppearsWorsens Significant Costs to Solving(Benefits delayed)Tendency to Maintain Status QuoVocal Minority vs. ChangeDefinite cost in present; uncertain future cost CognitiveGenerally OptimisticOverly Discount FutureReluctant to change status quoOrganizationalStructural barriers 2 effective info processing PoliticalPolitical Losers MobilizeScanning / Integration + Learning Failures Aviation Security New Security Oversight expensive Travel Delays Airlines Block Reform 9.11

  • Lanir: Between Situational + Fundamental Situational: Lack of InformationCognitiveOrganizationalPoliticalFundamental: Incompatibility of self perception with reality

  • Where does it meet Reut?Dont AnticipateDont Perceive Dont Attempt to SolveDont Solve (Perceive & Attempt)CognitiveOrganizationalPoliticalWhy Relevancy Gaps arent closedMindsetDivergent Reality

    Environmental Damage cutting down the trees fragility (susxeptibility to damage) + resilience (potential for recovery from damage) forests, soil, fish population etc

    Climate ChangeChanges in heat by sun volcanic eruptionsWhen dont have writing, this is even more problematic

    Hostile Neighbors Western Roman Empire difficult to know if the Barbarians became better and stronger, and therefore beat Rome, or if they were always there but simply cos of Romes other weaknesses the Barbarians provided the coup de grace

    Decreased support by friendly neighbors most countries depend on a neighbor either for imports or essential goods (like US imports of oil, Japanese imports of wood oil etc) or cultural ties that lead to a societys cohesion (Australia and Britain)

    They live on farmsResistant to change and sticking to old ways didnt eat fish, didnt learn from inuit how to hunt ringed seals or whales Eat Wild Animals but NOT fish

    Comservative: Because living in Greenland was diffiuclt, they found that variations were more likely to prove disastrous than advantagoues so didnt change things

    Christian and European identity - preferred beef over seal meatBuilt big churches on European modelsAlso imported bronze candel sticksand gold ringsRaise cows, sheep & goats for milk etc Maintain cows, even thought it was cold involved collecting hay during summer so the cows could eat during winterEat Wild Animals but NOT fish

    CLIMATE CHANGE they happened to arrive when it was relatively warm lowered hay production and clogged ship lanes between greenland and norway with sea ice

    Enviromental - Burned woodlands to clear land for pasture, then cut down remaining trees for firewood they became short of lumber. Innuit used blubber to keep warm Norse used wood and then ran out

    PROBLEMS: Climate changes, European changing demand for ivoryArrival of innuit innuit arrive around 1200 Norse dont develop trade with them nor learn from them see them as primitive pagans

    Decline in Fridnly Conact with Norway sea froze + crusaders opened up routes to asian ivory

    What kept them together ultmately destroyed themInvestment in cows, Nordrestra hunt (luxury exports polar bear, walrus tusks) and churchesHave to decide which values to keep and which to give up

    Failure to Anticipate: The group doesnt anticipate a problem before it actually arrivesSocieties with no prior experience of such problems (Britain bringing rabbits and foxes, Norse dont anticipate that Crusaders will open up sea routes to Africa (thus making walrus ivory hunting less profitable cos of the elephants) or sea ice would impede ship traffic to Europe, Mayan didnt anticipate that deforestation of hill slopes would trigger soil erosion from slopes into valley, Not being part of a literary society is problematic Chco Canyon Anasazi society survived droughts in the past, but no one remembered.Societies Reason by False Analogy [Haataka bli Hatmara]Vikings deceived by similar looking tree species in Iceland to that of Norway and Britain they thought the landscape was the same but after they cleared them for grazing, the top soil was eroded. The French and the Maginot line (assuming next war would be fought same as last war)Failure to Perceive: When problem does arrive, the group fail to perceive it Some problems are literally imperceptible (no way for miners of sulfide ores to perceive the toxic copper and acid dissolved in mine runoff water.Distant Managers company executives may not realize there is a problem cos they are far awaySlow trend concealed by up and down fluctuations (creeping normalcy / landscape amnesia) like global warming. Medieval Greenlanders didnt realize climate was becoming colder. Maya had trouble discerning it becoming dryer. Failure to Attempt to Solve: After they perceive it, they dont attempt to solve it Rational Bad Behavior 'good for me, bad for you and everybody else', economic subsidies such as with fisheries, sugar growing in US. Tragedy of the Commons many consumers are over-harvesting a communally owned resource (like catching fish in ocean). Or interest of decision making elite in power clashes with interests of rest of society.Irrational Behavior 'harmful to everyone' often derives from clash of values ignore bad status quo because it favored by some deeply held value 'Persistence in Error' 'Mental Standstill or Stagnation' Tuchman. Alternatively, we feel reluctant to abandon policy (or sell stock) we have already invested in. (Twersky & Kahneman). Examples: The Greenland Norse were strengthened by Christian values, but this prevented them from adopting selective adoptions of Eskimo technology that may have allowed them to survive for longer. Australians raised wool for sheep although that value has downsides. Montanans are reluctant to deal with mining and logging because it connects to their self identity. Rwandan culture of large families relevant when high childhood mortality but led to disastrous population explosion. Difficult to abandon valuesDislike those who complain about Problem (Tasmania's Green Party / Peace Now?).Groupthink / Crowd Psyhcology bay of pigs etcGroup Denial (Heifet'z work avoidance) if something arouses pain subconsciously suppress it or deny it even though pradtical results of ignoring may prove disastrous e.g. may fear of dam breaking falls to zero as you get to people near dam only way of preserving one's sanity while looking up every day at the dam is to deny the possibility that it could burstPartly Irrational clashes between long and short term (fisherman use cyanide to kill coral reef fish in order to feed children, although know they are destrying future livelihood. Government also act on a short term focusFailure to Solve: The group anticipates, perceives and tries to solve, but fails.Problem may be beyond present capacities to solveSolution may exist but may be prohibitively expensive (stopping forest fires)Efforts may be too little too late (evacuating settlements to save 2SS?)Examples: Montana spends $100m a year dealing with Leafy Spurge weeds. Australia can't get rid of their rabbits. Greenland is just too cold to live on, stopping forest fires Leaders knew prolem existed and wouldnt solve itself aviation security problematicAviation security worse. Enemies ability betterNew security and oversight systems would require expensive direct costs (and no tangible benefit 9.11 not happening is not tangible)Increased travel delays and cost of flyingWhen no crisis, no changeSpecial interest groups benefit from status quo and block reform airlinesSo WHY DO PEOPLE Fail to ACT?Positive illusions mean people undervalue riskPrefer

    Lanir uses the same terms but explains them slightly differently

    Cognitive limitations in dealing with large amounts of information what kahneman and twesky call cognitive shortcuts this is also something that Taleb discusses in Black Swan

    Organizatoinal too large or too complex so early warning gets stuck

    Political Psychological Decision Making Dynamic which may lead to Group Think Allison

    He then says that all of these are situational surprises what Heifetz calls a technical challenge if we had all the information we would not have been surprised. An example he gives is the YK war where they had all the info but were still surprised

    Fundamental Surprise meanwhile is the incompatability of perception of self with reality example of husband fidning wife cheating for her its situational, for him its fundamental to solve it, Lanir talks about fundamental learning there is no algorithm which provides reasoned stepsit requires a jump from reductionism to holism. Need tolerance for uncertainty, to challenge calculated rationality