Results of the environmental assessments with the CCAT-tool
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Results of the environmental assessments with the CCAT-tool
W. de Vries, J.P. Lesschen, J. Kros, M. Kempen and B.S. Elbersen
Alterra, Wageningen UR and University of Bonn
CCAT end-user meeting, 30 March 2010
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Outline
• CCAT approach to predict environmental indicators
• Environmental indicators – Description and base line results – Comparison results with other studies
• Cross compliance measures• Results environmental assessments
– Effect of separate measures (graphs)– All SMRs and GAECs (maps of baselines and effects)
• Conclusions
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Approach
• Existing models are further adapted and integrated into the CCAT tool
• Basis of the CCAT tool– Economic model CAPRI– Environmental assessment model
MITERRA-Europe – Meta-models of the detailed
biogeochemical models DNDC and EPIC, for a limited number of indicators and measures
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CAPRI
Excretion modelMITERRA
manure/fertiliser modelMITERRA
Livestock, landuse
ExcretionC, N, P, metals
input to soil C, N, P, Cd, Pb, Cu, Zn
housing modelMITERRA
Uptake modelMITERRA
uptakeN, P, metals
housing emissionNH3, N2O, CH4
soil emissionNH3, N2O, CH4
Soil moduleMITERRA
DNDC metamodel
Base line 2005
CC measures
EPIC metamodel
N leaching,runoff
erosion
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MITERRA-Europe
• A tool for integrated assessment of N, P and C budgets and emissions from agriculture in EU-27 at Member State and regional levels (NUTS-2)
• Developed for the European Commission
• Based on information from CAPRI and RAINS/GAINS
• Simple/rapid model
• Uniform approach for EU-27
• Analysis of scenarios and measures
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MITERRA-Europe
Crop production: - Crop type - Cropped area - Management
Groundwater & surface waters
N inputs: N fertilizer BNF, N deposition
Animal production: - Animal species - Animal number - Management
N outputs: milk, meat, egg
NH4+ NO3
- DON Npart NH4+ NO3
- DON Npart
NH3 N2O NOX N2
Atmosphere
N outputs: harvested crop
NH3 N2O NOX N2
Atmosphere
manure
feed
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MITERRA-Europe in CCAT tool
Cross compliance obligations
Changes in management
Costs of compliance
CAPRI: Market response 1) Changes in cropping
shares 2) Change in livestock
type/number
MITERRA: emissions to: 1) Water
2) Air 3) Soil
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CAPRI
MITERRA-Europe
Set of ND measures
Per NUTS2 % in: Nfer, Nam
Cost due to N: € (kg N ha-1)-1
4
Per NUTS2 % in: #An, crop area
5
NO3 le, NH3 em, N2Oem
CH4 em, Nbalance, Pbalance
Per NUTS2:- Total costs € ha-1
- Environmental indicators
CAPRI-Preprocessor
Additional cost: € ha-1
2
11
23
6
7
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MITERRA-Europe indicators• Air:
• NH3 emission
• N2O emission
• CH4 emission
• GHG emission
• Water:
• N leaching
• N (sub-)surface runoff
• NO3 concentration groundwater
Soil: • Soil carbon stock • N balance • P balance• Metal balance (Cd, Cr, Cu, Ni,
Pb, Zn and Hg)
Biodiversity:• Critical N load exceedance
(terrestrial ecosystems)• N-concentration in surface water
(aquatic ecosystems)
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Nutrient soil balances
N balance EU-27 P balance EU-27
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
Input Output
kg
N /
ha
/ y
ea
r
N leaching
N2 emission
Nox emission
NH3 emission
N2O emission
Crop uptake
N fixation
Deposition
Fertilizer
Grazing
Manure
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
Input Output
kg
P /
ha
/ y
ea
r
Accumulation
Crop uptake
Deposition
Fertilizer
Grazing
Manure
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Metal balances EU-27
0.0
0.2
0.4
0.6
0.8
1.0
1.2
1.4
1.6
Cd input Cd output
g C
d/h
a/ye
ar
Accumulation andleachingCrop uptake
Deposition
Sludge
Manure
Fertilizer
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Cu input Cu output
g C
u/h
a/y
ea
r
Accumulation andleachingCrop uptake
Deposition
Sludge
Manure
Fertilizer
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Comparison MITERRA results
0
5
10
15
20
25
0 5 10 15 20 25
UNFCCC values (Tg CO2-eq)
Mit
err
a-E
uro
pe
(T
g C
O2
-eq
)
N2O: reported EU-27 to UNFCCC NH3: EMEP and NEC values
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Measures: status/decisions
Linkage SMRs/GAECs and proxy CCAT measures include: • SMRs Nitrates Directive
– 8 SMRs evaluated by MITERRA-Europe– 3 SMRs evaluated by DNDC – 1 SMR evaluated by EPIC.
• SMRs Ground Water and Sewage Sludge Directive – 1 measure related to heavy metals evaluated by MITERRA-
Europe
• GAECs (focused on carbon sequestration) – 3 GAECs (crop rotations, cover crops & zero tillage)
evaluated by MITERRA . – 2 GAECs (cover crops & zero tillage) evaluated by EPIC and
DNDC.
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Clustered Nitrates Directive measures
• Maximum manure N application (170 kg N/ha) • Limitation to N application in winter and wet
periods• Limitation to N application on sloping grounds• Manure storage with minimum risk on leaching• Appropriate application techniques• Buffer zones • Growing winter crops • (Balanced N fertilizer application)
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Compliance levels
• Present compliance levels are related to the base line period 2005-2009. Full compliance is assumed 100%, unless impossible, using activities for the year 2005.
• Present compliance levels are based on investigations within CCAT.
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Results environmental assessments with MITERRA-Europe
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Effect of measures
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
BALF MaxMan NOFMWW LimSlope AFMAT BufStrip GWC
Ch
ang
e in
em
issi
on
(%
)
NH3 emission
N2O emission
N surplus
N leaching
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Comparison scenarios
-6.0%
-5.0%
-4.0%
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
NH3 emission N2O emission N balance N leaching P balance
% change 2005 vs zero compl.
% change full versus zero compl.
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NO3 concentration groundwater
% diff. baselinevs 0-compl.
baseline
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N concentration in surface water
% diff. baselinevs 0-compl.
baseline
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N2O emission
% diff. baselinevs 0-compl.
baseline
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NH3 emission
NH3 emissionbaseline
% diff. baselinevs 0-compl.
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Critical N load exceedance
Exceedance CLbaseline
% diff. baselinevs 0-compl.
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Metal balances
Cd balancebaseline
% diff. baselinevs 0-compl.
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Soil organic carbon stocks
baseline abs diff. baselinevs 0-compl.
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Results detailed environmental assessments with Meta models EPIC
and DNDC
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Limitations meta model assessments
SMRs and GAECs evaluated by Meta models: • do not include present compliance levels and possible
future implementation levels per country• are limited to 2 crops only, i.e. maize and barley • are limited to 2 GAECs, i.e. cover crops and zero tillage
Results thus show:• a spatially detailed assessment • for a theoretical situation (zero and full compliance)• and a limited number of crops
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DNDC: No tillage vs Tillage scenario: N2O
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• Rainfed Maize• Cover/N fixing crop
(clover)• Expressed as %
change with regard to baseline– Erosion– NO3 leaching
EPIC: Cover crop
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• Barley: no-till– Erosion
– NO3 leaching
EPIC: No-till
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Conclusions
Impacts of CC obligations (SMRs) related to the Nitrates Directive:
• Impacts are highest on N leaching/runoff • There is a small positive effect on NH3 emissions, N2O
emissions and carbon sequestration. • Except for balanced N fertilization, the impacts are
limited (<5%) on N leaching/N concentrations and very limited (<2%) for N emissions.
• The difference between baseline and zero compliance (what did we gain) is larger than between full compliance and baseline (what can still be gained). CC levels for the Nitrates Directive are already high
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Conclusions
• CC obligations (GAECs) may significantly reduce erosion and to a lesser extent N fluxes
• Cross Compliance impacts are regionally different. In most regions, there are positive changes in agricultural emissions. However, a selection of regions experience negative environmental externalities: – Soil C (Poland, Southern Portugal), – Ammonia (Poland, Bulgaria, Romania, Alpes-Mediteranée).
• A strict balanced N fertilization can further reduce N leaching and NH3 emissions and enhance GHG mitigation