Results of "System Analysis and Forecasting in Sphere of Science and Technologies"

project on the "Safe, Clean and Efficient Power engineering" direction

Expert group: Koshumbayev M.B.

Stoyak V.V. Glazyrin S.А.

Melnik V.Y. Tokmoldin N.S.

Myrzakulov B.К.Lysenko R.I.

Almaty, 2014

"National Center of the State Scientific and Technical Examination» JSC

Project purpose:

- To prepare the persons making decisions to changes in the future

- To define the strategic directions of scientific researches and developments in the field of biotechnologies, which will allow Kazakhstan to come to a new development level and will provide increase of living standard and welfare of Kazakhstan citizens

- To give an assessment of threats, risks and opportunities of biotechnologies development in Kazakhstan in the future

The time horizon – 2030

2

The main consumer groups of project results

Ministries and Departments

• Development of scientific and technological and innovative policy

• Choice of priorities of science and technologies development

• Adoption of investment decisions and formation of scientific programs budgets

• ….

NCSSTE

• Trends of scientific and technological and innovative development

• Criteria of an assessment of scientific projects focused on future development

• Ranging of the scientific projects and programs meeting challenges and needs of Kazakhstan for the future

• Formation of packages of scientific projects and programs, with allocation of financing priorities

• Formation of world, country and regional research networks

• Definition of the priority directions for creation of the Centers of excellences

• Scientists’ mobility support (including international)

• Assistance to growth of number of publications and patents in the directions, the most significant for long-term development

Society• Priorities providing growth of national prosperity• Increase of living standards of all members of

society• Improvement of an education system and

development of the innovative business providing growth of the population employment

Science• Directions of research and development

conducting, new scopes of researches• International and intra country mobility,

cooperation with the leading international research institutes

• Improvement of publications and patents quality

Industry• Increase of level of awareness on future

markets, products, technologies and R&D• Strengthening of science and business

communication • Compliance of business strategies to priorities of

the country development in the future

4

Systems analysis and forecasting

Scanning

Scenario planning

Process analysis

Road maps

Expert panels, interview, seminars

and round tables

Bibliometric and patent analysis

1. Scanning of trends, opportunities, threats of biotechnologies development in the world and Kazakhstan, SWOT analysis

2. Definition of key factors of development in the future

Scheme of research conducting

1. Trees of technologies

2. WMO analysis3. Science topic

passports

Activities plan (purposes, tasks, result in view of: 1) 8 sectors2) more than 20 – subsectors3) Macro level (interdisciplinary programs of scientific researches)

1. Expert panels on a weekly basis, the including more than 60 experts of 8 sectors

2. Questioning more than 300 Kazakhstan experts

3. Round tables with more than 300 experts

1. Bibliometric and patent analysis of the 1000 most quoted publications and patents (Scopus)

2. Bibliometric and patent analysis across Kazakhstan (NCSSTE base)

1. Optimistic scenario ofthe Kazakhstan

development till 2030. 2. 8 sectoral scenarios of

development

The scenario of biotechnologies development in Kazakhstan for the period till 2030 - represents a basis for strategic conceptualization of future energy development options in Kazakhstan on the basis of definition of key trends, opportunities and risks of the future, as well as variables having high uncertainty in the future.

List of products/services, technologies and subjects of scientific researches conducting and developments.

Road maps – represents specification of works on development of the priority directions of scientific and technological development in the field of Power engineering in Kazakhstan for the period till 2030

Passports of subjects of scientific researches conducting and developments

5

Research results

Structure of the Scenario

6

I. GLOBAL CHALLENGES, TRENDS, AND FACTORS OF DEVELOPMENT

II. KAZAKHSTAN TRENDS AND FACTORS

III. KEY TRENDS AND FACTORS FOR DEVELOPMENT OF BIOTECHNOLOGY

IV. ANALYSIS OF CROSS IMPACT OF FACTORS

V. ANALYSIS OF FUTURE MARKETS IN THE WORLD AND KAZAKHSTAN

VI. ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS OF BIOTECHNOLOGY SECTOR

DEVELOPMENT IN THE WORLD

VII. ANALYSIS OF STRATEGIES AND PROGRAMS OF BIOTECHNOLOGY SECTOR

DEVELOPMENT IN KAZAKHSTAN

VIII.ANALYSIS OF R&D IN THE WORLD, IDENTIFICATION OF THE LEADING

COUNTRIES

IX. ANALYSIS OF KAZAKHSTAN COMPETENCES IN THE FIELD OF R&D

X. STRATEGY OF ACTIVITIES FOR THE SCENARIO IMPLEMENTATION

XI. "WILDCARDS" AND “WEAK SIGNALS" OF BIOTECHNOLOGY

XII. RISKS AND THREATS AT THE SCENARIO IMPLEMENTATION

7

Trends and factors of biotechnology development in Kazakhstan

“Safe, Clean and Efficient Power engineering” direction

(S1) Growth of urban population

(S2) Enhancing the status of scientists

and inventors

(T1) Construction of RES

(T2) Implementation of non-waste technologies

of high-ash coals combustion

(Т3) Development of safe nuclear energy

technologies

(Т4) Development of Kazakhstan energy

technologies

(E1) Resource depletion

(E2) Rising prices for oil and gas

(Е3) Energy efficiency and energy saving

(Е4) Increasing of science funding

(Eco1) Environmental

requirements for TPP and CHPP

(Eco2) “Green” certificates

(Есо3) R&D in the energy sector, taking

into account the environmental safety

(P1) Improvement of legislation

(P2) Creation of innovative companies

Society

Technology

Economy

Environment

Politics

С1. Growth of urban populationЕ2. Rising prices for oil and gasЕсо2. “Green” certificatesТ2. Implementation of non-waste technologies of coal combustionР1. Improvement of legislation

Е1. Resource depletionР2. Creation of innovative companiesЕсо1. Environmental require-ments for TPP and CHPP

С2. Enhancing the status of scientists and inventorsЕ4. Increasing of science fund-ingЕсо3. Financing of R&D, taking into account the environmental safetyТ4. Development of Kazakhstan energy technologies

Т1. Construction of RES

Т3. Development of safe nuclear energy technologyЕ3. Energy efficiency and energy saving

Influence

Strong

Average

Weak

Weak Average Strong

Uncertainty

High uncertaintyCertain

Trends and factors of energy development in Kazakhstan

Relationship and mutual influence of factors

9

Social

Technological

Economic

Environmental

Political

10

Results of the analysis of world and Kazakhstani competencies in biotechnology

Получение «чистого» энергетического, промышленного и бытового топлива на

основе углей и сланцев

Получение топлива на основе природных, шахтных, метан угольных пластов, попутных нефтяных газов, отходов производства, ТБО

и природной биомассы

Получение топливного водорода, в том числе с использованием ВИЭ (СЭС, ВЭУ и ГЭС)

Комплексная оценка энергоресурсов ВИЭ в районах перспективного развития

Исследования по разработке эффективного энергогенерирующего оборудования на

основе ВИЭ

Исследование ТЭС, комплексного

использования отходов генерации и утилизации тепловой энергии

Переработка газообразных выбросов (парниковые газы, диоксид углерода и др.)

энергетических, промышленных, сельскохозяйственных и других объектов

Исследования ресурсов возобновляемой энергии в создании объектов «зеленой»,

интеллектуальной и эффективной генерации, передачи, распределения, хранения и применения электрической и тепловой

энергии

Распределенные, локальные и автономные сети и их комплексы с применением ВИЭ

Исследования по разработке беспроводных сенсорных систем, систем автоматизации и

диспетчеризации на основе ВИЭ

Исследования системы «умный», безопасный и энергоэффективный дом

Исследования финансовых инструментов для развития энергоэффективности и

внедрения ВИЭ Определение ВИЭ казахстанского

содержания для участия в EXPO-2017

Развитие атомной (ядерной) энергетики нового поколения высокой надежности и

безопасности

Развитие технологий энергетики нового поколения высокой надежности и безопасности на основе водорода

20 25 30 40

США Финляндия Германия РФ

25 30 40 50

Германия Финляндия Япония РФ

10 15 15 20

США Япония Германия Китай

2 3 5 5

Германия США Китай Швеция

5 5 7 10

Германия Китай США Англия

60 60 65 80

США Дания Германия РФ

50 55 60 65

США Германия Япония Англия 10 20 20 25

Китай Германия США Англия

20 25 30 40

США Германия Япония Китай

20 20 30 40

Англия США Япония Китай

25 30 35 40

США Швеция Германия Финляндия 5 10 20 25

США Франция Япония РФ

5 5 20 30

Германия США Япония Китай

Receiving "clean" power-generating, industrial and

household fuel on the basis of coals and shales

Receiving fuel on the basis of natural, mine, coal bed methane, associated

oil gases, industrial wastes, MSW and natural biomass

Receiving fuel hydrogen, including with use of RES (SPP, WDPP, and

HPP)Complex assessment of RES energy

resources in areas of perspective development.

Researches on development of the effective power generating equipment

on the basis of RES

Researches of thermal power plant, complex use of waste of

generation and utilization of thermal energy

Processing of gaseous emissions (greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide

and etc.) power, industrial, agricultural and other facilities.

Researches of renewable energy resources in creation of objects of "green", intellectual and effective generation, transfer, distribution, storage and application of electric

and thermal energy.

Distributed, local and autonomous networks and their complexes with

application of RES

Researches on development of wireless touch systems, systems of automation

and dispatching on the basis of RES

Researches of “smart”, safe and

power effective house system.Researches of financial

instruments for development of energy efficiency and

introduction of RES. Definition of the Kazakhstan content RES for

participation in EXPO-2017

Development of atomic (nuclear) power of new generation of high

reliability and safety.

Development of power engineering technology of new

generation of high reliability and safety on the basis of hydrogen.

2030: Optimal future for Kazakhstan in the field of energy

11

Development and modernization of thermal power (non-waste technologies of coal, shale and artificial gas use)

Implementation of renewable energy sources

Low energy intensity of the economy

Diversification of energy supply

The use of financial instruments to stimulate energy-saving, energy efficiency, implementation of RES

Introduction of electromobiles and electric transport

Development of safe technologies on use of atomic energy

Development of new fuels

Legislative recognition of tariff-setting for different types of energy

Strategies to respond to key challenges of the future in the framework of “Safe, Clean and Efficient Power engineering”

12

BASED on the COMPETENCIES of KAZAKHSTAN for the period till 2030

Independent development of scientific programs

- Energy-saving technologies in industry- Energy efficiency technologies in housing- Development of new devices and equipments for heat stations with non-waste fuel combustion- Development of the wind installations adapted for conditions of Kazakhstan- Low-pressure small and mini-TPPs- Solar stations- Industrial heat pumps

Joint research with leading world academic centers

- High-octane constituents of oil refining- Combined-cycle power plants- Power systems with smart-control

Transfer of modern technologies and adaptation to the conditions of Kazakhstan

- Biocomplexes- Hydrogen technologies- Nuclear technologies

13

R&D competence of Kazakhstan in the field of energy

Трансферт технологий и знаний

Проведение совместных научных исследований с ведущими центрами мира

Преимущественно самостоятельное развитие

Стра

теги

ческ

ая зн

ачим

ость

Компетенции Казахстана в области R&D

В краткосрочной перспективе

В среднесрочной перспективе

В долгосрочной перспективе

Выплавка и переработка черных и цветных металлов

Технологии прямого восстановления железа

Технологии производства тонкого листа горячей прокаткой

Технологии порошковой металлургии

Технологии производства композиционных материалов

Производство ферросплавов (в том числе комплексных)

Редкие и редкоземельные металлы

Гидрометаллургия

Разработка рационального комплекса наземных геолого-геофизических методов поиска и разведки МПИ

Создание динамической модели 3Д для эффективного интерактивного управления процессом добычи МПИ

Технологии производства формованного кокса

Сплавы цветных металлов для нужд машиностроения и авиакосмической отрасли

Strategic importance

Hig

hLow

Average

Safe nuclear technologiesSafe nuclear reactor

High-octane components of oilCombined-cycle power plantsCombined-cycle installationInstallation with smart control

Gas turbine and piston enginesBiocomplexesCombined energy complexesWind turbine with concentrator

Non-pressure and low-pressure direct-flow water turbinesIndustrial heat pumps

Solar concentratorsVortex wind turbine

Boilers with boiling and spouted bedExternal combustion enginesNon-waste combustion of high-ash coal

In the short term In the medium term In the long term

Competence of Kazakhstan in R&D

Refundable development mechanism

Mostly self development

Joint research with leading centers of the world

Transfer of technology and knowledge

Refundable development mechanism

Identification of priority topics for R&D in Kazakhstan for the period till 2030 in

“Safe, Clean and Efficient Power engineering” direction

14

Структурный состав респондентов

The ratio of respondents by age composition

59%

41%

Structural category of respondents

представители академического научного сообщества

представители бизнес сообщества

25-30 31-40 41-50 51-60 старше 60

26

94

21

39

количество экспертов по возростамNumber of experts according to age

Over 60

26%

39%

13%

22%

Structural category of respondents of academic and scientific sphere

доктора наук

кандидаты наук

магистры

работники сферы научной деятельности (инженеры)

Academic and scientific community

representatives

Business community representatives

Doctors of Sciences

Candidates of science

Masters

Scientific work assistants (engineers)

In assessment of technologies and science researches topics participated

15

Representatives of the academic and scientific community

Representatives of the business community

“Eurasian National University named after L.Gumilev” RSE “KEGOC “ Kazakhstan Electricity Grid Operating Company“ JSC

“Almaty University of Energy and Communication” JSC "Almaty power stations” JSC

Al-Farabi Kazakh National University "Samruk-Energo” JSC

“Kazakh Research Institute of Power Engineering named Academician Sh.Ch.Chokin” JSC

“Kaz Munai Gas” National Company” JSC

Kazakhstan Scientific Research Design and Survey Institute of Fuel and Energy systems «Energy» JSC

“Kazakh Scientific and Research Institute of Power and Communication” JSC

“Kazakh SRI of mechanization and electrification of agriculture”

“Atyrau oil refinery” LLP

"Nazarbayev University" JSC “KAZ Munai Teniz” Offshore Oil Company” JSC

"Kaz Research Institute of the agriculture economy and development of rural areas" LLP

“Kazakhstan engineering” National Company” JSC

Pavlodar State University named after S. Toraigyrov “KAZAKHMYS ENERGY” LLP

KazNTU after K.I.Satpayev “Kazakhstan Temir Zholy” JSC

Kazakh State Industrial University "Eurasian energy Corporation” JSC

"Kazakh Institute of oil and gas” JSC "Zhambyl GRES named after Baturov T.I."JSC

Priority themes of R&D

16

Products (Services) Technologies Researches’ topics

1 2 3

Energy resources collecting

E-1. Increase of power efficiency of coals and natural gas complex use

E-1.1. Technologies of complex processing of coal and use of the condenced gas

E-1.1.1. Receiving "clean" power-generating, industrial and household fuel on the basis of coals and shales

E-2. Use of local and "unique" hydrocarbonic fuel

E-2.1. Technologies of thermo chemical processing of associated oil gases, receiving power fuel from waste of agricultural production, MSW and natural biomass

E-2.1.1. Receiving fuel on the basis of natural, mine, coal bed methane, associated oil gases, industrial wastes, MSW and natural biomass

E-2.2. Technologies of hydrogen fuel E-2.2.1. Receiving fuel hydrogen, including with use of RES (SPP, WDPP, and HPP)

E-3. Use of renewable energy resources for electric - and heat supplies.

E-3.1. Technologies of research and a complex assessment of renewable energy resources and introduction of RES in areas of perspective development.

E-3.1.1. A complex assessment of RES energy resources in areas of perspective development.

E-3.2.1. Researches on development of the effective power generating equipment on the basis of RES

17

Priority themes of R&DProducts (Services) Technologies Researches’ topics

1 2 3

Energy generating sector

E-4. Increase of power efficiency and ecological safety at generation of heat and electric power.

E-4.1. Technologies of ecological safety increase and complex use of waste of generation

E-4.1.1. Researches of thermal power plant, complex use of waste of generation and utilization of thermal energy

E-4.1.2. Processing of gaseous emissions (greenhouse gases, carbon dioxide and etc.) power, industrial, agricultural and other facilities.

E-4.2. Technology for widespread introduction of generation on the basis of renewable energy sources use

E-4.2.1. Researches of renewable energy resources in creation of objects of "green", intellectual and effective generation, transfer, distribution, storage and application of electric and thermal energy.

Sector of energy carriers transportation

E-5. Steady centralized heat and power supply E-5.1. Intellectual technologies of monitoring, dispatching and optimization of operating modes of thermal and electric networks, increases of efficiency, maneuverability, increase of capacity and energy security of NES.

E-5.1.1. Distributed, local and autonomous networks and their complexes with application of RES

E-5.2.1. Researches on development of wireless touch systems, systems of automation and dispatching on the basis of RES

18

Priority themes of R&DProducts (Services) Technologies Researches’ topics

1 2 3Energy consumption sector

E-6. Increase of energy efficiency in housing and communal services

E-6.1. Technologies of energy efficiency of construction, automated energy audit and certification of inhabited and public buildings

E-6.1.1. Researches of “smart”, safe and power effective house system.

Energy saving support and RES sectorE-7. Economic mechanisms of stimulation of energy efficiency, introduction of RES

E-7.1. Technologies connected with release and turn of financial instruments for reduction of harmful emissions, energy efficiency, introduction of RES stimulations of "green" power

E-7.1.1. Researches of financial instruments for development of energy efficiency and introduction of RES

E-7.1.2. Definition of the Kazakhstan content RES for participation in EXPO-2017

Safe energy sectorE-8. Increase of safety in power engineering E-8.1. Hydrogen and nuclear tech E-8.1.1. Development of atomic (nuclear)

power of new generation of high reliability and safety.

E-8.1.1. Development of power engineering technology of new generation of high reliability and safety on the basis of hydrogen.

19

Road map – Energy efficiency and Energy-saving sub-direction

Time

Products/Services

Topics of research

Base technologies

Indicators

Resources

Strategies/Programs

Risks

MonitoringOperational plan

Strategic planLong-term vision

Energy audit, database of RES

Thermomodernization of buildings, increase of

power efficiency in the industry

Equipment for environmentally friendly and power effective use of

coalDevices for local generation

with use of RES

Increase of energy efficiency of industrial production. Increase of energy efficiency of housing and

communal services.

Development of economic mechanisms of stimulation of energy efficiency, introduction of RES. Researches on increase of power efficiency and ecological safety of use of coal in energy industry.

Creation of new types (combined) RES-generating systems of distributed, local and

network appointment for production of electricity and/or heat (cold).

Use of local and "unique" fuel for the distributed

and local (island) generation of energy.

Integration and harmonization of wind, solar, geothermal and other RES power

with traditional power facilities.

Transfer of technology of modeling, analysis,

design and creation of new technologies.Introduction of energy

efficiency and energy-saving technologies

Creation of research clusters Development of infrastructure and technological base

Lack of a close relationship of domestic science with manufacturing High competition from the countries of near and far abroad Dominance of foreign companies in the field of energy efficiency and energy-saving

Personnel risks Rise in the cost of projects

Need for transfer of technology on initial stageAvailability of material and technical base Availability of certified laboratoriesAvailability of consumables for research

2050 Strategy

Republic of Kazakhstan FIID

SP for 2014-2020 "Energos berezhenie-

2020” SEStrategic development plan of the

Republic of Kazakhstan till 2020

Strategy of innovative development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period till 2030

International Power Agency, Asia-Pacific partnership, Strategic Energy Technology Plan of the European UnionNRU "MPEI" Russia

Leading foreign organizations in the field of energy saving

and energy efficiency

Research institutes (Kazakh Research Institute of Power Engineering JSC, Scientific Research Institute of Power resource-saving technologies), HEIs (Nazarbaev University, KAZNTU, INEU)

Development and improvement of educational Master’s and Doctoral programs, increasing the number of education grants. Changes in the legislative acts and documents concerning R&D in the field of energy

efficiency and RES-energy engineering

Financial resources: Investors, public-private partnership

Acquisition of the modern, research equipment

Prototypes of the combined RES-generating of systems of

new generation

Receiving patent for new program complexes for calculation and modeling of RES resources

and RES generation systems in the conditions of RK

10 pilot projects30 publications in the international scientific journals, organization and

conducting the international conference

Technologies of database compilation on of renewable energy resources

Technologies of the distributed generation with use of RES

Fischer-Tropsch technology

Technologies of energy audit conducting

Technologies of power effective buildings and productions

Technologies of an solar, bio - hydro-, geo-and other RES

resources assessment

2014 2017

Road map - renewable energy sources (RES) sub-direction

2023 2030 ……….Time

Products/Services

Topics of research

Basic technologies

Resources

Strategies/Programs

Risks

Monitoring

Indicators

Operational plan Long-term visionStrategic plan

Solar power plants

Wind power stations

Green tariffs Bioenergetic complexes

Green certificates

Sensors and automated control systems

Small hydroelectric power plants

High efficiency wind electro-turbine

High-efficiency and/or low costs solar cells

Ecological-economic modeling

Gas, heat, electrical sensors

Microelectronics and radio engineering

Biofuel based on microorganism, plants and

algae

Receiving cheap materials for solar power

Renewable energy technologies and equipments adapted to the conditions

of Kazakhstan

Wireless sensor systems, automation systems and dispatching of small energy facilities based on RES

Control and monitoring systems of thermal and electric networks with the use of RES

Instruments and technologies of RES implementation

Proportion of alternative (without big TPP) energy sources-1.5%

Investments in renewable energy-25 billion. USD

Achieving the profitability of domestic companies in the field of RES

Reducing CO2 emissions by 40% (by 2010)

Domestic developments in the field of RES

Financial resources: private investors, public-private partnership

Development and improvement of educational programs, increasing the number of education grantsChanges in the legislative acts on research in the field of energy efficiency and RES

Universities (Nazarbayev University, AIPET, KazNU, KazNTU, etc.), research institutes (JSC Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of Energy, Institute of Physics, Institute of Nuclear Physics, etc.), commercial companies (Astana Solar, Kenzher, Nursolar, etc.)

NREL (United States) Fraunhofer (Germany) JPEA (Japan)

The National Agency for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources (Russia)

International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

Renewable energy sources (Kazakhstan Electricity Committee on Association)

The UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (Kyoto Protocol)

Republic of Kazakhstan FIID SP for 2014-2020

Strategy of innovative development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period till 2030Expo 2017

Rise in the cost of projects

- Lack of a close relationship of domestic science with manufacturing- - High competition from the countries of near and far abroad - Dominance of foreign companies in the field of RES

Personnel risks

- Need for transfer of technology- Availability of material and technical base - Availability of certified laboratories- Availability of consumables for research

Development of infrastruc- ture and technological base

Transfer of technology to improve energy efficiency and RES

Creation of own technologiesCreation of research clusters Introduction of RES in the

energy complex

2014 2017

Road map - Safe energy sub-direction

2023 2030 ……….Time

Products/Services

Topics of researches

Basic technologies

Resources

Strategies/Programs

Risks

Monitoring

Indicators

Operational plan Long-term visionStrategic plan

Cheap and safe gaseous fuels

Low-power nuclear reactors Power plants based on cold fusionNew sources of heat, electricity,

and hydrogen

Technologies of nuclear reactors criticality calculation

Constructional materials manufacturing processes for nuclear power facilities

Coverings for heatallocating elements of nuclear reactors

manufacturing processes

Technology to produce new materials for cold fusion

Nuclear reactor technologyTechnologies of

extraction/receiving gaseous fuel

The use of local and non-traditional sources of gaseous fuels

Creation of new structural materials for nuclear reactors of the fourth generation

Integration of nuclear power plants with wind, solar and geothermal energy

Analysis of low-power nuclear reactors

15 publications in international magazines, organization and conducting of the

International Conference

Obtaining a patent on new software for calculation of heat transfer and criticality in nuclear reactors

3 new diagnostic test systems

15 professionals of heat exchange calculation technology and technical

design of nuclear reactors

Acquisition of modern laboratory equipment for conducting and analyzing acceptable power reactors in a wide range of assignments and output capacities

Financial resources: private investors, public-private partnershipDevelopment and improvement of educational programs, increasing the number of education grantsChanges in the legislative acts concerning research in the field of safe energy

Research organizations (Kazakh Scientific Research Institute of energy JSC ), universities (KazNU, IITU)

NREL (United States) Fraunhofer (Germany) JPEA (Japan)

The National Agency for energy efficiency and renewable energy sources (Russia)

International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA)

Committee on renewable energy sources (Kazakhstan Electricity Association)

Republic of Kazakhstan FIID SP for 2014-2020

Strategic development plan of the Republic of Kazakhstan till 2020

Strategy of innovative development of the Republic of Kazakhstan for the period till 2030Strategy 2050

Rise in cost of projects

- Lack of a close relationship of domestic science with manufacturing- - High competition from the countries of near and far abroad - Dominance of foreign companies in the field of the safe energy

Personnel risks

- Need for transfer of technology- Availability of material and technical base - Availability of certified laboratories- Availability of consumables for research

Development of infrastructure and technological base

Transfer of technologies for safe energy Creation of own technologyCreation of research clusters Introduction of safe technologies in the

energy complex

Analysis of the cold fusion potential

New types of nuclear reactors on fundamentally new fuel elements

Risks and threats of the Scenario implementation

22

1. Scientific and technological risks

2. Socio-economic risks

3. Political risks

4. The risks associated with poor management of the

Scenario implementation

5. Risks of regulatory frameworks and infrastructure

A "green" economy

23

Decree of the President of the Republic of Kazakhstan from May 30, 2013, no. 577, approved the Concept on transition of the Republic of Kazakhstan to the "green economy" in the following areas: Effective water resources management Modernization of agriculture Energy saving and energy efficiency Development of power engineering Waste management Reduction of air pollution

One of the priority directions of the "green economy“ development defined the development of alternative and renewable types of energy, on which to 2050 shall consist of not less than 50% of total energy consumption. Atlas will be developed for all kinds of potential renewable energy sources (sun, wind, hydro, biomass and geothermal).

"Green" energy

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Expo 2017 in Astana will be the first international exhibition held in the countries of Central Asia and the CIS. Organization and holding of the international specialized “EXPO-2017” exhibition “Future energy" will accelerate the development of renewable energy sources in Kazakhstan and development of measures to promote perspective cluster model of alternative energy development .

Summary and prospects for the future

The given analytical researches on development of power industry of Kazakhstan till 2030 are

based on strategic Foresight .

Tariffs for energy, science funding and changes in structure of power industry are Key Factors

of Uncertainty, having high influence and high uncertainty on the future of the energy sector.

4 scenarios, such as innovative development, diversification of power industry, decrease in

negative influence and elimination of threats are developed on the basis of the analysis of

influential factors network and key factors of uncertainty.

Strategy of overcoming are developed on the basis of the requirements caused by key factors

of power industry and development of the energy markets.

Introduction of RES, energy efficiency and changes of structure and strengthening of power

competitiveness of traditional industries are presented as the general important strategies of

overcoming in various scenarios.

Modernization of power industry with use of new technologies, by means of science funding

are defined as strategy of evasion from big risk in the future.

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THANKS FOR YOUR TIME!

Almaty January 23, 2014

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