Results of “Call for earthquake forecast models, test regions & forecast evaluation methods”

Research group of earthquake forecast systems based on seismicity of Japan

in collaboration with D. Schorlemmer, F. Euchner, and CSEP working group

International symposium “Toward constructing earthquake forecast systems for Japan”

27 May 2009 at ERI, Univ. Tokyo

The earthquake forecast testing experiment Current stage: Testing

Center was installed and three models are under test.

Next stage: Use the existing Testing Center to start a formal testing this academic year

Triple-S ALM RI

Rules of the game- Testing regions

• Default regions (d≤30km) with grid spacing 0.1 deg.

• Invite test regions

- Testing classes (Invite forecast models)• 1-day forecast

• 1-year forecast

• 5-year forecast

- Future earthquakes that will be forecast: • The revised JMA bulletin. No declustering.

• Number of earthquakes in a predefined time window for each magnitude bin in the range 5.0≤M≤9.0 (0.1 magnitude unit steps) at each predefined grid node within a predefined testing region.

- Forecast evaluation methods• CSEP official suite

• Invite forecast evaluation methods

- We noticed this experiment to seismologists through our webpage and Newsletter of Seism. Soc. Japan in 2009

Give notice of proposals

Earthquake forecast model proposal

Test region proposal and applicable forecast

models

Forecast evaluation method proposal

Forecast models Seismicity-based forecast models with different

earthquake-generation hypotheses. - ALM: D. Schorlemmer (1 yr)

- Triple-S: J. Zechar (1 yr)

- RI: K.Z. Nanjo (1 yr, 1 day if there is any proposed one-day model)

- Asperity-based: S. Matsumura (1 yr)

- Double-branching: W. Marzocchi (1 yr: need to be checked)

- ETAS: Ogata (1 yr: need to be checked)

- ETAS: J. Zhuang (1 yr: need to be checked)

- MARFS, MARFSTA, & JMM: C. Smyth (1 yr)

Proposed test regions Default all Japan with d≤30km (proposed by CSEP): ALM , Triple-S, RI, Double-branching, ETAS (Ogata), ETAS (Zhuang), MARFS, MARFSTA & JMM.Same with d≤100km (proposed by EFSSJ): Models are invited

Default all Japan with d≤30km (proposed by CSEP): ALM , Triple-S, RI, Double-branching, ETAS (Ogata), ETAS (Zhuang), MARFS, MARFSTA & JMM.Same with d≤100km (proposed by EFSSJ): Models are invited

Kanto with d≤100km (proposed by Nanjo): Models are invited

Kanto with d≤100km (proposed by Nanjo): Models are invited

Off Ibaraki with d≤100km (proposed by Matsumura): Asperity-based

Off Ibaraki with d≤100km (proposed by Matsumura): Asperity-based

Evaluation methods CSEP official suite that is currently used: J. Zechar

- Likelihood-based N, L, R-tests

- Alarm-based tests

Conventional likelihood-based methods: M. Imoto