Restaurant Industry Update - Calabasas...

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Restaurant Industry Update September 2017

Transcript of Restaurant Industry Update - Calabasas...

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Restaurant Industry Update

September 2017

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DISCLOSURE

This presentation should not be considered in any way an offer to buy or sell a security.

Buying or selling a security involves substantial risk and may be worth more or less than the original investment.

This presentation is for informational purposes only.

Securities offered through Fallbrook Capital Securities Corp. Member FINRA/SIPC.

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INTRODUCTION TO CALABASAS CAPITAL

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Mergers & Acquisitions

Business sales

Subsidiary dispositions

Businesses purchases

Mergers and JVs

Investment banking firm primarily servicing clients with $10 to $100 million in revenues

Capital Raising

Private Equity

Subordinated Debt

Senior Debt

Venture Capital

Securities offered through Fallbrook Capital Securities Corp., Member FINRA/SIPC

Historically, our business has been split about 50/50 between M&A and Capital Raising

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RESTAURANT INDUSTRY EXPERTISE

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RESTAURANTS INDUSTRY TRENDS Margins getting squeezed while traffic is down

Higher Costs:

Labor (wages, health insurance)

Food Safety

Environmental concerns (lighter packaging and less food waste)

Demand for locally sourced produce; Natural and organic ingredients

Reimaging expenses

Discounting/value-bundling

Lower Traffic:

Impact of eCommerce growth on lower retail traffic

Market saturation

Delivery services present both a threat and growth opportunity

Order-ahead apps are a fast growing alternative vs. traditional delivery services. These apps also allow customers and restaurants to avoid delivery charges

Higher impact of social media/food rating apps on consumer opinions5

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6Data: Duff and Phelps

1.6%

2.3%2.0% 2.1%

1.4%

0.0%0.6% 0.7%

-0.8%

0.7%

-0.5%-0.8%

0.0%

-1.1%-1.4%

-0.6%-1.1% -0.9%

-1.3%

-4.3%

0.0%

-3.7%

-1.1% -1.0%-1.1%

-1.8%

-1.1%-0.6% -0.6%

-1.0%

-2.5%

-1.5%-1.9%

-3.1%

-1.1%

-2.4%

-3.2%

-2.3%

-3.5%-3.9%

-2.7%

-3.5% -3.4% -3.3%

-6.5%

-2.5%

-5.0%

-3.4% -3.3%-3.0%

-8.0%

-6.0%

-4.0%

-2.0%

0.0%

2.0%

4.0%

6.0%

8.0%

5/2

01

5

6/2

01

5

7/2

01

5

8/2

01

5

9/2

01

5

10

/20

15

11

/20

15

12

/20

15

1/2

01

6

2/2

01

6

3/2

01

6

4/2

01

6

5/2

01

6

6/2

01

6

7/2

01

6

8/2

01

6

9/2

01

6

10

/20

16

11

/20

16

12

/20

16

1/2

01

7

2/2

01

7

3/2

01

7

4/2

01

7

5/2

01

7

Same-Store Sales Traffic Linear (Same-Store Sales) Linear (Traffic)

MONTHLY SAME-STORE SALES AND TRAFFIC GROWTH

• SSS and traffic have declined for the last six consecutive quarters,

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INDUSTRY GROWTH TRENDS Despite SSS and traffic declining over the last six consecutive quarters, June

2017 sales and traffic growth were the best for the industry since January

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Source: Insight comes from data by TDn2K through The Restaurant Industry Snapshot, based on weekly sales from over 28,500 restaurant units and 155 brands, totaling $67B in annual revenue

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RESTAURANT INDUSTRY GROWTH BY SEGMENT All sectors peeked in terms of SSS growth at the beginning of 2015

Over the past two years, QSR has been the strongest while Fast Casual and Casual dining have been the weakest

Fast Casual rebounded strongly at the end of 2016 but that was largely because of Chipotle and Panera. Excluding those two, the fast casual sector continued to underperform

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Same Store Sales by Price Point

Source: TM Capital

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DELIVERY SERVICES The demand for speed and convenience is now trickling over to the restaurant

industry. Year-to-date dine-in restaurants sales have declined, while to-go, delivery, and drive-thru sales have each increased

Delivery services have become a fast growing trend and according to Restaurant News over 80% of public restaurants are testing or implementing delivery services to combat negative SSS and slow traffic trends

Restaurant operators agree delivery services will improve sales volume but the negative impact on margins often offset the benefits

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DELIVERY SERVICES On average, delivery services charge fees equal to 20-30% of the sale but

restaurants track the number of user visits to the establishment and both QSR and Fast Casual visits remain unaffected

10Source: Sense360

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GROWTH IN ORDER-AHEAD APPS QSR mobile order-ahead apps that allow purchases remotely and in-store

restaurant pickup are expected to grow rapidly through 2020

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$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

2017P 2018P 2019P 2020P

Re

ven

ue

in B

illio

ns

Data: Business Insider

$10

$15

$24

$38

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DIGITAL ORDERING IMPACT ON PIZZA INDUSTRY

Dominos reported 60% of sales ($3.1B) from digital ordering channels

Dominos, Pizza Hut, Little Caesar's, and Papa John’s dominate roughly half of the pizza industry and half their business relies on takeout and delivery service

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Catering 14%

Sit-down service

33%

Takeout and

delivery 53%

Products and Services Segmentation (2016)

Source: IBISWorld

60%

40%

Dominos Sales $billions

Digital Non-digital

$2.1

$3.1

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M&A ACTIVITY Restaurant M&A activity is primarily composed of strategic acquisitions,

indicating consolidation in the space partly due to cannibalization

Restaurant chains are looking to diversify to mitigate risk in an evolving space

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PUBLICLY TRADED RESTAURANT VALUATIONS

14Data: Duff & Phelps

11.3

15.1

10.8

13.2

12.3

14.3

11.4

12.8

14.4

13.5

8.8

10.2

13.8

12.9

9.6 9.4

15.9

13.4

8.8

9.9

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

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QSR Fast Casual Casual Dining Fine Dining

2013 2014 2015 2015 2016

x

x

x

xx

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

x

xx

x

xx

x

x

x

xx

x

xx

Mean 13.6x Mean 13.8x Mean 9.9x Mean 11.1x

• Although the fast casual sector still has the highest average EBITDA valuation multiple over the past five years, QSR currently is valued the highest

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RECENT TRANSACTIONS

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Date Deal Type Acquirer / Investor Target Value ($mm)Aug-17 Acquisition Capitalspring (lender) Beef O’Brady’s NAAug-17 Acquisition Perpetual Capital & CR3 Capital Garden Fresh Restaurant Corp. NAAug-17 Acquisition J. Alexanders Ninety Nine Restaurant & Pub $199 Jul-17 Acquisition Advent International First Watch Restaurants NAJul-17 Investment Brentwood Associates Blaze Pizza NAJul-17 Acquisition Roark Capital Group Jim ‘N Nick’s Bar-B-Q NAJul-17 Acquisition Hojeij Branded Foods Vino Volo NAJul-17 Acquisition Four Foods Group Mo'Bettahs NAJun-17 Investment Panda Restaurant Group Urbane Café NAMay-17 Acquisition Cleveland Avenue LLC PizzaRev NAMay-17 Acquisition Curry Up Now Tava Kitchen NAMay-17 Acquisition Axum Capital Back Yard Burgers NAMay-17 Acquisition Golden Gate Capital Bob Evans Restaurants $565 May-17 Acquisition SBR LLC Elephant Bar NAMay-17 Acquisition Gala Investmnts./Balmoral Funds Mooyah Burgers, Fries & Shakes NAApr-17 Investment General Atlantic Torchy's Tacos NAApr-17 Acquisition JAB Holding Co. Panera Bread $7,800 Mar-17 Acquisition Oak Hill Capital Partners Checkers Drive-In Restaurants $525 Mar-17 Acquisition Darden Restaurants Cheddar’s Scratch Kitchen $780 Mar-17 Acquisition Four Foods Group 48 Little Caesar's Locations NAFeb-17 Acquisition Restaurant Brands Popeyes Louisiana Kitchen $1,800 Jan-17 Acquisition Loflin (Franchisee) Pizza Patron NAJan-17 Acquisition (BK) Cerberus Capital Mgt Garden Fresh Restaurant Corp. NAJan-17 Acquisition MTN Capital/Argosy PE Rita’s Franchise Co NAOct-16 Acquisition Goode Partners LLC STONEFIRE Grill, Inc. NAOct-16 Investment Thai Union Group PCL Red Lobster Seafood Restaurants $575 Oct-16 Acquisition Hargett Hunter Capital Partners Ruggles Green Texas LLC NASep-16 Acquisition Roark Capital Group, Inc. Jimmy John's Franchise LLC NASep-16 Acquisition CenterOak Partners LLC Wetzel's Pretzels LLC NAJul-16 Acquisition Hargett Hunter Capital Partners The Original ChopShop Co NAJul-16 Acquisition NPC Quality Burgers, Inc. Wendy's Intern. LLC (35 Restaurants) NAJun-16 Acquisition Larson MacColl Partners Burger & Beer Joint NAJun-16 Acquisition Pieology Pizzeria Project Pie LLC NAMay-16 Acquisition JAB Holding Co Krispy Kreme Doughnuts Inc $1,350

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CONTACT INFORMATION

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David Bonrouhi

Managing Director

Calabasas Capital

26610 Agoura Road Suite 120

Calabasas, CA 91302

(213) 500-4135 Direct/Mobile*

(818) 657-6130 Office

www.calabasascapital.com

[email protected]

Securities offered through Fallbrook Capital Securities Corp.

Member FINRA - SIPC