Resource Planning Overview
Transcript of Resource Planning Overview
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TEP and UES Resource Planning Workshop 1
Resource Planning Overview
Michael SheehanDirector, Supply-Side Planning
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Website and Contact Info
TEP Website http://www.tep.com/Company/News/index.asp
Workshop agendas
Presentations will be posted after each workshop
E-mail Contact [email protected]
Questions and Comments
Presentation Requests
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Workshop Agenda
Workshop 1 Resource Planning Overview
Input Assumptions
Future Uncertainty
Workshop 2 – Thursday, October 22nd 2009 Energy Efficiency and Renewables
Transmission Planning
Environmental Strategies
Workshop 3 - Tuesday, November 17th 2009 Preliminary Results
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Resource Portfolios
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Input Assumptions Future Resource Assumptions
» Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)
» Department of Energy (DOE)
» Black & Veatch
» National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL)
» Summit Blue
» ICF International
» National Energy Technology Laboratory (NETL)
» Other Utilities and Public Stakeholders
Independent Third-Party Data Sources» Avoid internal biases
» In-depth analysis behind data
» Forward thinking outcomes
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission
Uncertainties
Environmental Policy
Fuel & Market Prices
Load Growth
EnergyEfficiency
Effectiveness
TechnologyInnovations
Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Resource Portfolios
FutureScenarios
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Future Uncertainties
Ventyx & Wood Mackenzie Long-Range Forecasts» Western Region Forecast of Fuels, Markets & Emissions
» Sensitivity Cases
» Carbon Cases (CO2 Legislation Updates)
Ventyx» 2009 Spring Reference Case
» Electric Power Horizons
Future Scenarios » Interaction between all market forces
» Consider range of possibilities and uncertainties
» Technologies innovations
» Development of opportunities and contingencies
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission
Uncertainties
Environmental Policy
Fuel & Market Prices
Load Growth
EnergyEfficiency
Effectiveness
TechnologyInnovations
Evaluation Criteria
Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Planning Requirements
Resource Portfolios
FutureScenarios
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Minimum Planning Requirements
Demand/Reserve Margin – 15% Planning Reserve
REST Compliance – 15% by 2025
Energy Efficiency Targets – 15% by 2020
Load Serving Capability
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission
Uncertainties
Environmental Policy
Fuel & Market Prices
Load Growth
EnergyEfficiency
Effectiveness
TechnologyInnovations
Evaluation Criteria
Environmental Impacts
Economic Development
Cost - Value
Financial Requirements
Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Planning Requirements
Resource Portfolios
FutureScenarios
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Cost Criteria
Environmental Impacts
CO2
Water Usage
Financial Requirements
Capital Requirements
Rate Impacts
Economic Development
Support Local Economy
Support AZ “Green” Industry
No longer “Least Cost” but rather “Best Value”
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission
Uncertainties
Environmental Policy
Fuel & Market Prices
Load Growth
EnergyEfficiency
Effectiveness
TechnologyInnovations
Evaluation Criteria
Risk Management
Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Planning Requirements
Resource Portfolios
FutureScenarios
Environmental Impacts
Economic Development
Cost - Value
Financial Requirements
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Managing Portfolio Risk
Load Forecast & Energy Efficiency Risk» Scalable resources
» Short lead times
Fuel & CO2 Risk» Fuel diversity
» Target “zero-emission” resources
Performance Risk» Proven technologies
» Geographic diversity
» Counterparty diversity
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2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030
Preferred Plan
Contingency 1
Contingency 3
Contingency 4
Contingency 2 Contingency 2
Preferred Plan Preferred Plan Preferred Plan
Pursue the strategic opportunities
Development of planning contingencies
Continuous evaluation of future resource options
Preferred Portfolios
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Input Assumptions
Thermal Resources
Energy Efficiency
Existing Resources
Renewables
Transmission
Uncertainties
Environmental Policy
Fuel & Market Prices
Load Growth
EnergyEfficiency
Effectiveness
TechnologyInnovations
Evaluation Criteria
Risk Management
Capacity Expansion and Planning & Risk Simulation Models
Preferred Portfolios
Planning Requirements
Resource Portfolios
FutureScenarios
Competitive Procurement Process
Environmental Impacts
Economic Development
Cost - Value
Financial Requirements
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TEP and UES Resource Planning Workshop 1