Resilience: The Challenges Ahead - Craig Applegath, Dialogue
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Transcript of Resilience: The Challenges Ahead - Craig Applegath, Dialogue
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RESILIENCEPart 1
THE CHALLENGES AHEAD
by Craig Applegath FRAIC
JULY 10, 2012
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CARBONCITY
REGENERATIVECITY
SYMBIOTICCITY
2050 >>2030 >>2010 >>
RESILIENT CITY
A POSSIBLE FUTURE FOR OUR CITIES?
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1. WHAT IS “RESILIENCE”?
2. ATTRIBUTES OF RESILIENCE
3. SIX KEY DRIVERS OF…
4. SHOCKS AND STRESSES
PART 1 - AGENDA
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SO WHAT IS RESILIENCE?
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http://www.dictionary.com
re-sil-ience [ri-zil-yuhns, zil-ee-uhns]
1. the power or ability to return to original form,
position, etc., after being bent, compressed, or
stretched; elasticity.
2. ability to recover readily from illness,
depression, adversity, or the like, buoyancy.
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“Resilience is the capacity of a
community’s economic, social,
political and physical
infrastructure systems to absorb
shocks and stresses and still
retain their basic function and
structure.” http://www.ResilientCity.org
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“Resilience is an emergent
property of a system – it’s not the
result of any one of the system’s
parts but of the synergy between
all of its parts.”
Thomas Homer Dixon, The Upside of Down
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RESILIENCE
TO WHICH
SHOCKS AND
STESSES?
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1. ECONOMIC
2. ENVIRONMENTAL
3. ENERGY SUPPLY / PRICE SHOCKS
4. INFRASTRUCTURE FAILURES
5. POPULATION CHANGE & MIGRATIONS
6. FOOD SHORTAGES / PRICE SHOCKS
7. SEVERE WEATHER EVENTS
8. DISEASE / PANDEMICS
9. REGIONAL RESOURCE CONFLICTS
10. TERRORISM (BIO / CYBER / DIRTY NUKES)
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THE SIXPOWERFULFUTUREDRIVERS!
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POPULATIONGROWTH/MIGRATION
CLIMATE CHANGE ENERGY SUPPLY
REGIONAL RESOURCECONFLICTS
ENVIRONMENTAL DEGREDATION
SOCIO-POLITICAL
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CLIMATE CHANGE
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WORLD CARBON DIOXIDE EMISSIONS BY COUNTRY
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HADLEY CELLS @ 250 LATITUDE
HADLEY CELLS @ 250 LATITUDE
EQUATOR
CLIMATE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
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POPULATION
GROWTH & MIGRATION
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POPULATION GROWTH RATE
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Population
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2 BILLION PEOPLE IN THE NEXT 25 YEARS!
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POPULATION IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
The USDA projects a 20% and 33% increase
trading of key food products over the next 5 years
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FISH STOCK COLLAPSES
COLLAPSE OF THE ATLANTIC COD FISHERY
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NET MIGRATION RATES FOR 2008
POPULATION MIGRATION
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ADDITIONAL 3.1 BILLION
PEOPLE IN CITIES BY 2050
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x x x x x
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So how do we start to build
capacity for greater
resilienceto these future shocks and
stresses in our
communities and cities?
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SIX IMPORTANTRESILIENCE ATTRIBUTES
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1. Flexibility
2. Redundancy
3. Diversity
4. Decoupling (self-sufficiency)
5. Decentralization
6. Environmental Integration
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FLEXIBILITY
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REDUNDANCY
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decentralizationDIVERSITY
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DECOUPLING
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DECENTRALIZATION
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New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina, August 2005
ENVIRONMENTAL
INTEGRATION
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RESILIENCE
– Part 1 –
DISCUSSION
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RESILIENCEPart 2
OPPORTUNITES FOR BUILDING
RESILIENCEby Craig Applegath FRAIC
JULY 10, 2012
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SO HOW DO WE INCREASE THERESILIENCECAPACITY OF OUR COMMUNITIES AND CITIES?
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1. PUBLIC HEALTH
2. EDUCATION & TRAINING
3. GOVERNANCE
4. ECONOMY
5. JUSTICE / PUBLIC ORDER / SECURITY
6. BUILDING FABRIC & TRANSPORTATION
7. ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
8. FOOD PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE
9. C.I.T. INFRASTRUCTRE
10. WATER AND WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE
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EXPLORE 5APPROACHESTO BUILDINGRESILIENCECAPACITY
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PLANNING FOR
GROWTH+DENSITY
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POPULATION GROWTH &MIGRATION
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50%Of the World’s Population
Live in Cities
NOW
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70%-80%Of the World’s Population
Will Live in Cities
by 2050
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TWO VERYGOODTHINGS ABOUT THIS SITUATION!
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KLEIBER’S LAW
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WEST’S 1st DISCOVERY
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WEST’S 2nd DISCOVERY
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HIGH-RISE DENSITY
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MintoTowers at Eglinton Subway, Toronto
T.O.D.
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50-60DWELLINGUNITS PER HECTARE[=100M x 100M]
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LOCAL LOW-CARBON
ENERGY
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ENERGYDEMAND
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EXTERNAL DISRUPTIONS
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FUTURECARBON TAXES
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ZERO-CARBONENERGY IS NEARING NET PARITY !
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PV PARITY IS 5 YEARS AWAY!
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0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
Total System Levelized Cost [2009 US$/MWh]
“Italy and the US will achieve grid parity ... in two and five years respectively.”
Andrew Beebe, Energy Innovations
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LIQUID METAL BATTERIES!
$250 per Kilowatt-hour fully installed
[10x less expensive than Lithium-ion!]
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THORIUMNUCLEAR
Qinshan Phase III Units 1 & 2, in Zhejiang
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Qinshan Phase III Units 1 & 2, in Zhejiang
“…a tonne of thorium can produce as much energy as 200 tonnes of uranium, or 3,500,000 tonnes of coal.”
Carlo Rubbia, CERN
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LOCAL
FOODPRODUCTION
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* S
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POPULATION IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
The USDA projects a 20% and 33% increase
trading of key food products over the next 5 years
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So
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HADLEY CELLS @ 250 LATITUDE
HADLEY CELLS @ 250 LATITUDE
EQUATOR
CLIMATE IMPACT ON AGRICULTURE
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LANDREQUIRED=2 ACRES
PER
PERSON
TORONTO =6 MILLION
ACRES
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VERTICAL FOOD PRODUCTION
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FOOD PRODUCTIONPROPOSALCREDIT: GORDON GRAFF
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MODULARIZATION
& C.I.T. INTEGRATION
KEY INFRASTRUCTURE
SYSTEMS
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SHOCKS TO AGING
INFRASTRUCTURE
SYSTEMS
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MOORES LAW(L
og
ari
thm
ic V
ert
ical
Scale
)
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With Permission of Paul Butler
Facebook is founded in February 2004
Facebook now has 800 million subscribers!
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THE
INTERNETOF THINGS
CLOTHING
AUTOMOBILE
MOBILE
DEVICE
CHAIR
WATCH
BOOKS
FOOD
GREEN SPACE
CAMERAS
GLASSES
MUSIC
INSTRUMENTS
PEOPLE
HOUSES
BICYCLE
TV
ANIMALS
DATING
SHOES
VACCUM
SPORTS
ART
TOOLS
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[Radio Frequency Identification Devices]
RFID!
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WITH PERMISSION OF CHE BIGGS, 20011
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MODULAR GENERATION / FOOD / WASTE PROCESSINGCREDIT: DIALOG
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IINFRASTRUCTURE &
BUILDING FABRIC
“HARDENING”
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SO WHAT HAPPENS WHEN THIS…
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OR THIS…
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HITS THIS…
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OR THIS…
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New Orleans after Hurricane Katrina
YOU GET THIS…
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AND THIS…
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SEVERE WEATHER EVENTSSOURCE: WORLDWATCH INSTITUTE (MUNICH RE)
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INFRASTRUCTURE HARDENING
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Resilience
LESSONS FROM THE PAST
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Resilience
INTEGRATEDDURABILITYSOURCE: DIALOG
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SERVICE QUALITY x SERVICE LIFE = DURABILITY
INTEGRATED DURABILITYSOURCE: TED KESIK
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LESSONS FROM THE PRESENT
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WEATHER PROTECTIONSOURCE: DIALOG
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WEATHER PROTECTIONSOURCE: DIALOG
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WEATHER PROTECTIONSOURCE: DIALOG
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WEATHER PROTECTIONSOURCE: DIALOG
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SUMMARY
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1. PUBLIC HEALTH
2. EDUCATION & TRAINING
3. GOVERNANCE
4. ECONOMY
5. JUSTICE / PUBLIC ORDER / SECURITY
6. BUILDING FABRIC & TRANSPORTATION
7. ENERGY INFRASTRUCTURE
8. FOOD PRODUCTION INFRASTRUCTURE
9. C.I.T. INFRASTRUCTRE
10. WATER AND WASTE INFRASTRUCTURE
OPPORTUNITIES FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE
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1. INCREASE URBAN SIZE AND DENSITY
2. LOW CARBON ENERGY PRODUCTION
3. LOCAL URBAN FOOD PRODUCTION
4. MODULARIZATION AND INTEGRATION
OF C.I.T INFRASTRUCTURE
5. INFRASTRUCTURE AND BUILDING
FABRIC HARDENING
5 APPROACHES FOR BUILDING RESILIENCE
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“Reality is one of the
possibilities I cannot
afford to ignore.”
Leonard Cohen
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