Residential Real Estate Market Report

Q3 2019-20

Preview

2

Q3 FY 19-20 Quarterly Market Movement

• Top 35 cities have recorded sales of 95,271 units in Dec quarter (Q3 FY 19-20) which is a 5% growth as compared to last

quarter or a 3% growth as compared to same period last year. 27 out of 35 cities witnessed an upward movement in

sales this quarter.

• 58% of the sales of this quarter were contributed by sub-50 lac segment. Sales of sub-50 lac segment has shown a 3%

growth on YoY while a 7% growth on QoQ basis.

• Top 35 cities witnessed new launches of 92,409 units during the 3rd quarter of FY 19-20. The number increased by 15%

on QoQ basis and 38% compared to same period last year.

• In tier I cities, new launches increased by 10% as compared to the previous quarter and 32% as compared to same

period last year.

• Among various cost segments, the sub 50 Lacs cost bracket witnessed 66% of new launches in the quarter. Highest

supply in the segment came in Pune contributing 75% of total city’s new supply followed by in MMR and NCR

contributing 49% and 82% of their new supply respectively.

• The unsold stock had marginally increased on QoQ basis in 35 cities while it increased by 4% on YoY basis. This increase

can be attributed to the high new launches this year. The current unsold across 35 cities stands at 1,315,631 units.

• Weighted average price across 35 cities exhibited a marginal drop of a percent as compared to previous quarter as well

as on YoY basis. Prices dropped marginally in 16 cities while it increased in only seven cities.

MMR, NCR, Pune, Bangalore, Ahmedabad, Hyderabad, Outer MMR, Kolkata, Chennai, Vadodara, Surat, Jaipur, Nashik, Bhopal, Chandigarh,

Lucknow, Nagpur, Vijayawada, Patna, Outer Pune, Goa , Coimbatore, Rajkot, Bhubaneswar, Raipur, Vizag, Indore, Thiruvananthapuram, Cochin,

Dehradun, Ranchi, Guwahati, Meerut, Kanpur, Vapi

Q3 19-20 Market Performance

3

945,163, 75%

314,995, 25%

974,229, 74%

334,003, 26%

977,993, 74%

337,638, 26%

Unsold Inventory

Tier 1 Cities Tier 2 Cities

69,806, 75%

22,961, 25%

67,523, 74%

23,550, 26%

69,721, 73%

25,550, 27%

Sales

Tier 1 Cities Tier 2 Cities

Q3 FY 19-20

Q2 FY 19-20

Q3 FY 18-19

QoQ

• Sales across the 35 cities increased by 5% while the unsold

inventory increased marginally by 1%.

•With the growth in sales, the inventory overhang slightly

reduced to 41 months or -5% at All India Level.

•New launches with 92,409 units witnessed a 15% growth

across the 35 cities.

•Weighted average price witnessed slight drop of a percent.

• The share of tier 1 cities to the overall sales decreased by a

percent to 73% while share to unsold stock remained stable

at 74%.

YoY

• Sales across the country (35 cities) increased by 3% while the

unsold stock increased by 4%.

•Months inventory remains unchanged at 41 months when

compared to same period last year.

•New launches witnessed a growth of 38% as compared to a

year ago.

Country Level - Overview

4

All India (35 Cities) Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20 QoQ YoY

Sales 92,767 91,073 95,271 5% 3%

Unsold 1,260,158 1,308,232 1,315,631 1% 4%

Months Inventory 41 43 41 -5% 0%

Wt. Avg. Price (Rs. PSF)

5,991 5,952 5,913 -1% -1%

New Launches 67,093 80,666 92,409 15% 38%

Sales (Units)QoQ YoY

City Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20

MMR 17,924 16,945 17,809 5% -1%

NCR 13,256 11,790 11,902 1% -10%

Pune 11,217 10,545 11,108 5% -1%

Bangalore 8,718 9,035 9,729 8% 12%

Ahmedabad 7,385 7,656 7,876 3% 7%

Hyderabad 4,522 4,878 5,121 5% 13%

Outer MMR 3,498 3,877 3,864 0% 10%

Kolkata 3,407 3,681 3,487 -5% 2%

Chennai 3,377 2,993 2,689 -10% -20%

Vadodara 2,382 2,217 2,512 13% 5%

Surat 2,901 2,447 2,176 -11% -25%

Jaipur 1,550 1,646 1,819 11% 17%

Nashik 847 1,055 1,614 53% 91%

Bhopal 1,234 1,073 1,430 33% 16%

Chandigarh 1,107 1,150 1,032 -10% -7%

Other Cities 9,442 10,085 11,103 10% 18%

35 Cities 92,767 91,073 95,271 5% 3%

QoQ

• Sales across the 35 cities increased by 5% with only 6 cities showing

a negative movement in sales. Six out of eight tier 1 cities witnessed

a positive movement.

• Among top 15 cities, maximum growth was observed in Nashik

(53%) followed by Bhopal with 33% growth.

YoY

• Sales across 35 cities grew by 3% although 11 out of 35 cities

witnessed a dip as compared to December quarter last year.

• Among the top 15 cities, downward movement was noticed in Surat

(25%), Chennai (20%), NCR (10%), Chandigarh (7%), Pune (1%) and

MMR (1%).

17

,80

9

11

,90

2

11

,10

8

9,7

29

7,8

76

5,1

21

3,8

64

3,4

87

2,6

89

2,5

12

2,1

76

1,8

19

1,6

14

1,4

30

1,0

32

96

7

91

2

90

4

88

7

82

2

70

1

64

8

62

5

60

2

55

8

54

3

49

4

47

6

36

2

32

8

32

1

29

2

25

0

22

3

18

8

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

18,000

20,000

Sale

s (U

nit

s)

Sales Performance in India

5

Unsold Stock (Units)QoQ YoY

City Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20

MMR 271,011 291,309 293,376 1% 8%

NCR 200,090 190,047 186,734 -2% -7%

Pune 123,066 143,410 149,039 4% 21%

Bangalore 102,443 102,433 100,255 -2% -2%

Ahmedabad 69,340 68,402 69,812 2% 1%

Hyderabad 42,658 45,855 45,954 0% 8%

Outer MMR 52,559 53,938 55,358 3% 5%

Kolkata 60,286 56,632 56,076 -1% -7%

Chennai 76,269 76,141 76,747 1% 1%

Vadodara 22,115 26,035 27,369 5% 24%

Surat 38,865 48,079 48,989 2% 26%

Jaipur 29,799 30,569 30,834 1% 3%

Nashik 9,242 11,425 11,566 1% 25%

Bhopal 19,377 17,853 16,813 -6% -13%

Chandigarh 12,994 12,718 13,588 7% 5%

Other Cities 130,044 133,386 133,121 0% 2%

35 Cities 1,260,158 1,308,232 1,315,631 1% 4%

QoQ

• Unsold stock across 35 cities increased marginally.

• Among top 15 cities, Chandigarh exhibited the highest growth (7%)

followed by Vadodara (5%), Pune (4%), Outer MMR (3%), Surat (2%)

and MMR, Chennai, Jaipur, Nashik by 1% each.

• Among these 15 cities, maximum drop was witnessed in Bhopal (6%)

followed by NCR and Bangalore by 2% each.

YoY

• Unsold stock in 35 cities increased by 4% in Dec-19 as compared to

same period last year with 21 cities showing a growth on YoY.

• Out of top 15 cities, maximum increase was seen in Surat (26%),

Nashik (25%), Vadodara (24%) and Pune (21%) while maximum drop

was observed in Bhopal (13%) followed by NCR and Kolkata with 7%

drop each.

293

187

149

10070

46 55 5677

2749

3112 17 14 19 16 7 12 9 5 9 6 5 5 4 9 6 6 4 3 3 2 2 2

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

Un

sold

(U

nit

s in

th

ou

san

ds)

Unsold Stock in India

6

Months InventoryQoQ YoY

City Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20

MMR 45 52 49 -4% 9%

NCR 45 48 47 -3% 4%

Pune 33 41 40 -1% 22%

Bangalore 35 34 31 -9% -12%

Ahmedabad 28 27 27 -1% -6%

Hyderabad 28 28 27 -5% -5%

Outer MMR 45 42 43 3% -5%

Kolkata 53 46 48 5% -9%

Chennai 68 76 86 12% 26%

Vadodara 28 35 33 -7% 17%

Surat 40 59 68 15% 68%

Jaipur 58 56 51 -9% -12%

Nashik 33 32 21 -34% -34%

Bhopal 47 50 35 -29% -25%

Chandigarh 35 33 40 19% 12%

Other Cities 38 39 35 -10% -8%

35 Cities 41 43 41 -5% 0%

QoQ

• Months inventory decreased by 5% across 35 cities and is standing at

41 months in Dec-19.

• An efficient market maintains 8 -12 months of inventory. An inventory

overhang of 41 months indicates a downside pressure on prices

across all the major cities in India.

• Among top 15 cities by sales, drop in months inventory was

witnessed in 10 cities.

• Months inventory increased maximum in Chandigarh (19%) followed

by Surat (15%), Chennai (12%), Kolkata (5%) and Outer MMR (3%).

YoY

• Overall months inventory remained stable at 41 months on YoY basis.

• Maximum growth was seen in Surat (68%) followed by Chennai (26%)

while maximum drop was in Nashik (34%) and Bhopal (25%).

Months Inventory in India

7

49 4740

31 27 27

4348

86

33

68

51

21

35 40

5853

25

3932

22

4029 26 26

20

54

36

54

33 32 3524 24

31

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

Mo

nth

s In

ven

tory

(M

on

ths)

12,286

4,60

7

5,21

9

5,48

5

3,21

0

5,62

5

3,26

5

4,25

1

5,02

6

2,64

1 3,82

2

3,18

0

3,75

6

3,05

6

3,58

4

3,50

6

3,38

9

4,46

2

3,31

5

3,00

9

6,03

7

4,59

3

3,40

6

3,47

2

3,00

6

4,09

8

3,06

4

5,48

7

5,3

50

4,01

2

3,50

7

3,63

2

2,69

5

3,7

06

2,77

6

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Wt.

Avg

. R

ate

(R

s. P

SF.)

Price (Rs/Sq.ft)QoQ YoY

City Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20

MMR 13,145 12,453 12,286 -1% -7%

NCR 4,656 4,628 4,607 0% -1%

Pune 5,231 5,257 5,219 -1% 0%

Bangalore 5,443 5,500 5,485 0% 1%

Ahmedabad 3,298 3,226 3,210 -1% -3%

Hyderabad 4,863 5,641 5,625 0% 16%

Outer MMR 3,241 3,268 3,265 0% 1%

Kolkata 4,261 4,318 4,251 -2% 0%

Chennai 5,057 5,024 5,026 0% -1%

Vadodara 2,563 2,668 2,641 -1% 3%

Surat 3,923 3,845 3,822 -1% -3%

Jaipur 3,328 3,276 3,180 -3% -4%

Nashik 3,999 3,794 3,756 -1% -6%

Bhopal 2,982 3,041 3,056 1% 2%

Chandigarh 3,613 3,643 3,584 -2% -1%

Other Cities 3,817 3,810 3,826 0% 0%

35 Cities 5,991 5,952 5,913 -1% -1%

QoQ

• In Q3 FY 19-20, the weighted average price across 35 cities declined

marginally by 1% as compared with previous quarter. Prices dropped

marginally in 16 cities while it increased in only seven cities.

• Among top 15 cities, maximum prices dip was observed in Jaipur

(3%), Kolkata (2%) and Chandigarh (2%).

YoY

• On YoY as well, the weighted average price across 35 cities declined

marginally by a percent. 16 cities showed drop in prices while 14

cities exhibited growth.

• Hyderabad exhibited highest growth in prices by 16% while MMR

and Nashik showed maximum drop of 7% and 6% respectively.

Movement in Price India

8

Cost Bracket Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20 QoQ YoY

Less than 30 Lacs 26,894 27,322 29,429 8% 9%

30 Lacs - 50 Lacs 26,462 24,572 26,122 6% -1%

50 Lacs - 1 Crore 26,144 25,637 26,235 2% 0%

1 Crore - 2 Crore 9,480 9,701 9,672 0% 2%

Above 2 Crore 3,787 3,841 3,813 -1% 1%

Grand Total 92,767 91,073 95,271 5% 3%

Sales Trend in various Cost Brackets – Q3 19-20

9

• Sales in Less than Rs. 30 Lac cost bracket increased by 8% on a

QoQ basis and by 9% on YoY basis. NCR had highest sales share in

this segment (19%) followed by MMR (14%), Outer MMR (12%),

Pune (10%) and Ahmedabad (10%).

• Sales in the cost bracket of Rs. 30 - 50 Lac increased by 6% on

QoQ but decreased by 1% on YoY basis. Maximum sales in the

segment was weighed in by MMR (17%) and Pune (16%) followed

by Ahmedabad (11%), NCR (10%) and Bangalore (9%).

• Sales in the cost bracket of Rs. 50 Lac – 1 Cr. increased by 2% on

QoQ basis while it remained almost stable on YoY basis. Bangalore

had maximum sales share of 19% in the segment followed by

MMR (16%), Pune (12%), NCR (9%) and Hyderabad (9%).

• Sales in luxury segment (Rs. 1–2 Crore) remained stable on QoQ

basis but showed a growth of 2% on YoY basis. MMR had

maximum share of 34%, Bangalore (15%), Hyderabad (12%) and

NCR (10%) in this segment.

• Sales in ultra luxury segment (above Rs. 2 Crore) decreased by 1%

on QoQ basis but increased by 1% on YoY basis. MMR, NCR,

Hyderabad and Bangalore combined together had a sales share of

74% in this segment.

• Maximum sales was witnessed in Less than Rs. 30 Lacs segment

with 31% share followed by Rs. 50 Lac – 1 Cr. (28%) and 30 Lac –

50 Lac segment (27%).

• Within tier 1 cities, the segment of Rs. 50 Lacs – 1 Crores has

highest share of 29% followed by the Rs.30 - 50 Lacs (28%) and

Less than Rs.30 Lacs (26%) segment.

29% 30% 31%

29% 27% 27%

28% 28% 28%

10% 11% 10%4% 4% 4%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20

Sale

s

Less than 30 Lacs 30 Lacs - 50 Lacs 50 Lacs - 1 Crore

1 Crore - 2 Crore 2 Crore +

New Supply in various Cost Brackets – Q3 19-20

10

• New supply increased by 15% on QoQ basis and 38% compared

to same period last year.

• Among various cost segments, the cost bracket of less than

Rs.30 Lac witnessed maximum new launches amounting to 38%

of total new supply followed by the cost brackets of Rs.30 Lacs –

50 Lacs (29%) and 50 Lacs – 1 Cr with 25% contribution.

• MMR contributed the maximum share of 19% to the total new

launches across 35 cities, followed by Pune (18%), NCR (9%),

Bangalore (8%), Ahmedabad (8%) and Hyderabad (6%).

• Among tier II cities, Vadodara contributed 4% while Surat and

Outer MMR both had 3% contribution to the overall new

supply.

• In Less than Rs. 30 Lac segment, Pune had largest contribution

of 21% followed by NCR (15%), MMR (11%), Ahmedabad (9%)

and Vadodara (9%).

• 75% of Pune’s new supply came in sub Rs. 50 lac segment while

the segment contributed 49% of total new launches in MMR

and 82% of launches in NCR.

• In Hyderabad 50% of new supply came in sub-50 Lacs segment

in the Dec-19 quarter as against only 7% of launches in this

segment in the previous quarter.

Cost Bracket Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20 QoQ YoY

Less than 30 Lacs 20,077 21,539 34,750 61% 73%

30 Lacs - 50 Lacs 17,881 24,740 26,569 7% 49%

50 Lacs - 1 Crore 20,729 22,179 23,004 4% 11%

1 Crore - 2 Crore 6,523 9,307 6,549 -30% 0%

Above 2 Crore 1,883 2,901 1,537 -47% -18%

Grand Total 67,093 80,666 92,409 15% 38%

30% 27%38%

27% 31%

29%

31% 27%25%

10% 12%7%

3% 4% 2%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20

New

Su

pp

ly

Less than 30 Lacs 30 Lacs - 50 Lacs 50 Lacs - 1 Crore1 Crore - 2 Crore 2 Crore +

Break-up of MMR & NCR

MMR- Sales and Unsold Stock

12

Unsold Stock (Units)QoQ YoY

Suburb Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20

Greater Mumbai 106,311 107,601 109,147 1% 3%

Thane 28,124 30,932 30,120 -3% 7%

New Mumbai 17,882 20,790 21,299 2% 19%

Central Suburb Extended 64,698 79,919 81,512 2% 26%

Western Suburb Extended 38,985 36,621 36,349 -1% -7%

Panvel 15,011 15,446 14,949 -3% 0%

Grand Total 271,011 291,309 293,376 1% 8%

Sales (Units)QoQ YoY

Suburb Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20

Greater Mumbai 5,473 4,436 4,922 11% -10%

Thane 1,683 2,082 1,920 -8% 14%

New Mumbai 2,041 1,702 2,176 28% 7%

Central Suburb Extended 5,354 4,552 5,753 26% 7%

Western Suburb Extended 2,572 2,718 2,129 -22% -17%

Panvel 801 1,455 909 -38% 13%

Grand Total 17,924 16,945 17,809 5% -1%

QoQ

• Of the different sub-regions in MMR, maximum increase in sales

was observed in New Mumbai (28%) followed by Central Suburb

Extended (26%) and Greater Mumbai by 11%.

• Panvel witnessed highest drop in sales of 38% followed by

Western Suburb Extended which dropped by 22% and Thane (8%).

• Unsold stock reduced by 3% each in Thane and Panvel followed by

Western Suburb Extended with a percent’s drop.

• Unsold stock increased in Central Suburb Extended and New

Mumbai by 2% each and by a percent in Greater Mumbai.

YoY

• Sales increased maximum in Thane and Panvel by 14% and 13%

respectively while it decreased maximum in Western Suburb

Extended by 17% and Greater Mumbai by 10%.

• Maximum growth in unsold was observed in Central Suburb

Extended (26%) and New Mumbai (19%) due to more launches in

these regions.

*Suburb Definition: Island City- from Colaba/Cuffe Parade till Mahim & Wadala; Western Suburb- from Bandra to Dahisar; Western Suburb Extended- from Mira Road to Virar; Central Suburb-Sion till Mulund; Central Suburb Extended- From Kalyan till Bhiwandi, Titwala & Badlapur; Thane- Thane, Kalwa & Kasarwadavli; Navi Mumbai- Navi Mumbai till Taloja & Kamothe, Ulwe and Karanjade; Panvel- Panvel.

NCR- Sales and Unsold Stock

13

Unsold Stock (Units)QoQ YoY

Suburb Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20

Gurugram (Gurgaon) 40,544 41,168 41,656 1% 3%

Greater Noida 80,272 71,850 71,223 -1% -11%

Noida 26,168 26,293 25,028 -5% -4%

Ghaziabad 35,436 32,939 31,876 -3% -10%

Bhiwadi 9,280 8,899 8,321 -6% -10%

Faridabad 4,695 5,499 4,980 -9% 6%

*Other Suburbs 3,695 3,399 3,650 7% -1%

Grand Total 200,090 190,047 186,734 -2% -7%

Sales (Units)QoQ YoY

Suburb Q3 18-19 Q2 19-20 Q3 19-20

Gurugram (Gurgaon) 3,699 5,234 4,599 -12% 24%

Greater Noida 4,334 3,102 2,491 -20% -43%

Noida 1,181 1,039 1,139 10% -4%

Ghaziabad 2,417 1,420 1,560 10% -35%

Bhiwadi 592 565 584 3% -1%

Faridabad 692 230 1,255 446% 81%

*Other Suburbs 341 200 274 37% -20%

Grand Total 13,256 11,790 11,902 1% -10%

QoQ

• Sales in NCR had marginally increased in the quarter after

consistent drop in last two years.

• Maximum growth in sales was witnessed in Faridabad while it

reduced maximum in Greater Noida by 20% and Gurugram by

12%.

• Unsold stock reduced in five major suburbs with Faridabad

bearing the highest drop of 9% followed by Bhiwadi (6%) and

Noida (5%).

YoY

• Sales witnessed a significant drop in all suburbs except

Faridabad and Gurugram which showed a growth of 81% and

24% respectively.

• Sales declined maximum in Greater Noida (-43%) followed by

Ghaziabad (-35%), Noida (-4%) and Bhiwadi (-1%).

• Unsold stock shrunk in Greater Noida, Ghaziabad and Bhiwadi

by 11%, 10% and 10% respectively while it increased by 6% in

Faridabad and by 3% in Gurugram.

*Other suburbs include Bahadurgarh, Dharuhera, North Delhi, Sonepat & West Delhi

Sales: The incremental sales or realty stock sold between two dates of survey. It covers sales in new launches (new additions) as well as sales in

carried-forward inventory from the previous quarter/quarters.

Unsold: It is the closing stock at the end of the quarter or duration in discussion.

New Launch: It is the supply launched (supply which developer starts marketing) during the quarter or duration in discussion.

New Addition: Sometimes a project is launched in the earlier quarters but is absent from the database. This may happen due to various reasons

for instance a new location is added to the city boundary, a big launch in remote/outskirt location exposes smaller projects in the locality, etc.

This uncovered supply is added to database the quarter it is found but is not included in the new launches for the quarter (as technically this is old

supply). Although this supply is not added in the new launches but the sales and unsold of these projects are added to the respective fields. Due

to these projects, the unsold for current quarter may be higher (or lower) than the sum of opening and new supply after removing sales.

Price: Weighted Average Price of the Unsold Inventory.

Business Turnover / Value of goods sold: Represents the value of the trade or the business done in a certain period. It is calculated by multiplying

the total sqft sold during the period with the prevailing prices.

Months Inventory: Represents the number of months required for the stock in the market to be absorbed according to the existing demand. It is

calculated by dividing the closing stock (marketable stock) by monthly sales.

Definition of Outer MMR: Palghar, Boisar, Karjat, Shahpur, Khopoli, Rasayani, Alibaug, Pen, Kasara and Uran

Definition of Outer Pune: Shirwal, Saswad, Daund, Shirur, Shikrapur, Rajguru Nagar, Manchar, Narayangaon, Kamshet.

Terminology

14Disclaimer : Please note, the data undergoes validation cleaning and corrections, this may reflect slight changes in the numbers of previousquarters.

www.liasesforas.com

Founded in 1998, Liases Foras is the only non-broking real estate data analytics and research company in the country. Data and science form the core of our services,

which range from providing market intelligence and risk advisory to lenders and mortgage companies, to providing development advice, best use and valuations to

developers, funds, banks and corporations.

Our expertise lies in the area of evaluating risk factors with a strong focus on understanding the dynamics of price and analysing any underlying risk. We firmly believe that

no matter how complex and ambiguous the real estate industry might seem, in reality, prices are governed by the laws of economic geography and urban economics. Our

coverage spans over 60 cities at present.

About Us

Products Advisory services

Ressex Desktop Valuation

Desktop Feasibility Solution

Crystal Developers Ratings

OPPS

Highest and Best Use Feasibility Study

Urban Planning

Consumer and Intermediary Survey

Product Viability

Preparing a Design Brief

Micro Market Reports

Technical Valuation and

TEV Studies

Retail Valuation

Porvolio Validation and

Risk Assessment

Valuation services

Clients