Residential Lighting Screw-in Lamps Ryan Firestone August 18, 2015.

Residential Lighting Screw-in Lamps

Ryan FirestoneAugust 18, 2015

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Overview

Today we are seeking approval of an update to the Residential Lighting UES measure.

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Measure OverviewMeasure Developers RTF, with baseline research from BPA and NEEA

CAT Review Ryan Firestone

Tech Sub-Com Review Subcommittee: May 26, July 29RTF Sub-group: July 17

R&E Sub-Com Review No

Notes • Measure last updated April 2014• Sunset extension from June to September 2015 at

June RTF meeting

• Technology types (screw-in lamps)• CFL• LED

• Lamp types• Decorative and Mini-Base• General Purpose, Dimmable, and

Three-Way• Globe• Reflectors and Outdoor

• Lumens

• 250 to 1049 lumens• 1050 to 1489 lumens• 1490 to 2600 lumens

• Delivery mechanisms: • retail, • mail-by-request • unsolicited mail • give away• direct install

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Staff Highlighted Areas

• Federal standards compliance: How to account for manufacturing/import standards that take many years to be fully reflected in the market

• Lumen shift: Lower that expected baseline lumens

• Storage: Accounting for delayed installation as our lighting model gets more complex

• Measure scope: – Three-way lamps – EISA exemption could lead to program

over-supply

– Direct Install – low use (closets, “other”)

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Recent History• June 16, 2015 RTF Meeting

– RTF CAT presentation on methodology

– Guidance requested on baseline replacement model and other details of methodology

– Sunset date extension for measure to September 30, 2015, with plan to bring measure to RTF at August 2015 meeting

– RTF requested that a subcommittee sub-group meet to discuss the baseline replacement model and provide a recommendation

• July 17, 2015 – RTF Sub-group meeting

• July 29, 2015 – Residential Lighting Subcommittee meeting to review outcomes of Sub-group meeting and prepare for the August RTF meeting

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The Baseline Replacement Issue• We must model savings over the lifetime of the measure in order to

estimate cost-effectiveness.

• In the case of residential lighting, some of the baseline technologies (inc/hal) have a shorter lifetime than the measure (CFL/LED).

• Therefore, our savings model must assume what replaces baseline lamps at the end of their life, but before the end of the measure life.

• Historically, we have assumed like-for-like replacement: e.g., when a halogen lamp burns out, it is replaced with another halogen.– This may conflict with our rationale for using a Current Practice baseline:

that the current market mix of sales is representative of the typical choice of an end-user

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Current Practice Baseline – GuidelinesApplied to Residential Lighting

• Need to establish rule for how choices are made in the baseline throughout the lifetime of the measure.

– Like-for-like replacement – when lamps in the counterfactual need replacement, they are replaced with the same thing

– Typical choices at time of RTF approval – when lamps in counterfactural need replacement, they are replaced with the same mix of inc/hal/CFL/LED that is assumed at the time of measure implementation

– Something in-between – there is some correlation between what was installed and what gets replaced, but not 100%

• Once this baseline rule is chosen, the baseline and efficient case can be modeled and lifetime savings can be determined.

From June 16 RTF Presentation

8 Current Practice Baseline – GuidelinesApplied to Residential Lighting

Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

EISA 2020 compliant

CFL CFL

LED

Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal EISA 2020 compliant

CFL CFLLED


CFL CFLLED


CFL CFLLED


CFL CFLLED


CFL CFLLED


CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant


CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant


CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant


CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 com pliant


CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant

Baseline: Like-for-like replacement

Baseline: Typical choices at time of RTF approval

Baseline: Something in-between


2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026

EISA 2020 compliant

CFL CFL

LED


CFL CFL

LED


CFL CFL

LED


CFL CFL

LED


CFL CFL

LED


CFL CFL

LED

Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal EIS A 2 0 2 0 c om plia nt

CFL CFL

LED

Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal Inc/Hal E IS A 2 0 2 0 c o m p lia n t

CFL CFL

LED


CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant


CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant


CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant


CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant

Inc/Ha l Inc/Ha l Inc/Ha l Inc/Ha l Inc/Ha l

CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant


CFL CFL

LED

E IS A 2 0 2 0 c o m p lia n t


CFL CFL

LED

EISA 2020 compliant

From June 16 RTF

Presentation

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July 17, 2015 Sub-group Meeting• Participants

– Jennifer Anziano (RTF Manager)

– Mike Baker (SBW)

– Ryan Firestone (RTF CAT)

– Lauren Gage* (BPA)

– Tina Jayaweera (Council)

– Bill Welch* (Independent)

*RTF member

• Reviewed slides on Baseline from June presentation

• Selected a baseline replacement model

• Proposed an approach to simplifying the representation of measures with savings that vary over the lifetime of the measure

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/subcommittees/reslighting/ResLighting_SubcommitteeMeetingNotes_2015_07_17.docx




July 17, 2015 Sub-group MeetingBaseline Replacement Issue:

• The sub-group agreed that the market is likely a mix of “like-for-like” behavior and “typical-choices” behavior– Sometimes consumers are intent on replacing what was in a socket with the same thing

– Sometimes consumers make a decision about the socket that is independent of what was installed previously

• The sub-group agreed to recommend the “Something In-between” replacement model– Some in sub-group would have preferred the “Typical Choices” model

• Captures some like-for-like replacement

• Does not require arbitrary selection of weights for the models

– Sub-group emphasized the importance of communicating the “Something In-between” method clearly, because of the complexity of the approach

– The Residential Lighting Subcommittee was presented with the Sub-group’s recommendation at their July 29 meeting, and did not object to this model.

11 Something In-between Replacement Model - Example

Halogen

CFL

LED

Current market mix of sales

50%

40%

10%

LED Measure – What happens when a halogen lamp in the baseline burns out?

Half are replaced with the same type of lamp

Halogen

Halogen

CFLLED

Half are replace with the current market mix of sales

?

50%

25%

20%5%

The portions of replacements that are like-for-like and typical choices is a variable. Sub-group approved of

50%/50%

July 17, 2015 Sub-group Meeting

Savings (kWh/yr)

First year savings

Measure Life

Time

Adjusted Measure Life

Savings (kWh/yr)

First year savings

Measure Life

Time

As modeled in measure assessment

Reporting Results

• Majority of sub-group was supportive of determining an “adjusted lifetime” for the measure

• Adjusted Lifetime = the lifetime at which, if first year savings were held constant over the lifetime, would produce the same cost-effectiveness as the time-variable savings.

• Rationale: – Savings after first year don’t meet quality standards of Guidelines.

– Lifetime is not subject to the same quality standards

Concerns with Adjusted Measure Life• RTF CAT disagree with using Adjusted Measure Life

– Savings portrayed in this approach are not accurate after the first year

– Time-variable modeling must be done regardless• Sub-group agrees that workbooks should show the time-variable stream of savings, regardless of if/how

lifetime and savings are adjusted

• Determining Adjusted Lifetime would be an extra step at the end of the analysis

• By definition, Adjusted Lifetime would not change the cost effectiveness of the measure

– Showing time-varying savings is consistent with how the Grocery Display Case EC Motor measure was handled at the July 21 RTF meeting

– CAT doesn’t think that this approach is consistent with the Measure Lifetime Guidelines

• Concern expressed at both the Sub-group and Subcommittee meetings that this would result in an even more truncated lifetime for LEDs than our current 12 year limit.

• Staff/CAT propose to not compute an Adjusted Measure Life

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July 29, 2015 Subcommittee Meeting• Reviewed sub-group meeting conclusions

• Reviewed RTF guidance from June 16 RTF meeting

• Concern expressed about programs’ ability to model time-varying savings in their cost-effectiveness tools

– Staff/CAT clarified that they approximate the time-varying savings as two constant annual savings:

• 2016-2019

• 2020 to end of measure life

– Consistent with treatment of Grocery EC Motors at July RTF mtg

• Concern expressed over “Adjusted Lifetime” implication for LED lifetime: it would be less than 12 years.

– Difficult to explain what “lifetime” means to users of RTF work products

Meeting Minutes: http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/subcommittees/reslighting/RTF-ResLightingSubcommittee-072915_Final.docx

Participants

• Sean Abadilla (PSE)

• Jennifer Anziano (RTF Manager)

• Rebecca Blanton (PSE)

• Katie Breene (Colehour+Cohen)

• Doug Bruchs (Cadeo)

• Rob Carmichael (Cadeo)

• James Domanski (CLEAResult)

• Christian Douglass (Contract Analyst)

• Ryan Firestone (Contract Analyst)

• Jennifer Francis (BPA)

• Philip Kelsven (BPA)

• Emily Kemper (CLEARresult)

• Brian Loughran (CLEAResult)

• Jes Rivas (Navigant)

• Paul Sklar* (ETO)

*RTF member

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/subcommittees/reslighting/RTF-ResLightingSubcommittee-072915_Final.docx




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RTF Guidance from June 16, 2015 RTF Meeting

http://rtf.nwcouncil.org/meetings/2015/06/RTF_ResLighting_2015_06_16%20v08.pptx



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Previous RTF Guidance• EISA 2020 in Baseline replacement model

– Baseline replacement model from 2020 onward should reflect EISA 2020 standard (45 lm/W)

• model as Lowest cost/worst performing compliant technology (CFL – 45 lm/W, ~5,000 hours lifetime, CFL cost)

• Commercial participants in Retail programs– 10% of sales for General Purpose and Reflector and Outdoor categories –

– 0% of sales for other lamp types

– 7.5 hours/day

– Same baseline market mix of technologies as residential participants

– Bonneville Non-residential Lighting metered study may inform Hours of Use, otherwise consider making the Retail Residential Lighting measures Planning until regional data on this is available

• Lumen Bins– Switch to EISA lumen bins

– Extend smallest lumen bin from 310 to 749 lumens to 250 to 749 lumens

– Consider grouping 749 to 1049 lumens with 1049 to 1489 lumens

Different groupings being proposed today, based on

Shelf/Sales results

Better data source found, 8.0 hrs/day

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Previous RTF GuidanceHow to model time-varying savings in ProCost

• From present to 2019 – use average savings over that period

• From 2020 onward – use average savings over that period

• Modify measure table to show savings from both time ranges

Risk Mitigation Credit

• Apply only to savings that last beyond 2019

Hours of use data source

• Use RBSA metered sample extrapolated to NW population.

• Include additional regional metered data in analysis if available.

LED Cost and Performance

• Extrapolate LED Cost and Efficacy to 2016, based on PNNL and DOE forecasts

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Non-residential Hours of Use• RTF-discussed plan to use Bonneville data from non-residential protocol, but sample

size was too small– THANK YOU to SBW and Bonneville for working with us on getting this data quickly

• Recent metered study of screw-in lamps in commercial spaces in Pennsylvania– Research done to account for commercial participants in upstream retail programs

Source: "2014 Commercial and Residential Light Metering Study" Prepared for: Pennsylvania Public Utilities Commission. Prepared by Statewide Evaluation Team, GDS Associates, Inc., Nexant, Research Into Action, and Apex Analytics

Building Type Participants LoggersHours of

Use (hrs/yr)Hours of

Use (hrs/day)Education 61 309 2,994 8.2Grocery 47 229 7,798 21.3Health 53 257 2,476 6.8Institutional/Public Service 61 306 1,456 4.0Lodging 35 166 2,925 8.0Mscellaneous 37 159 2,001 5.5Office 65 302 1,420 3.9Restaurant 35 155 3,054 8.4Retail 69 312 2,383 6.5Warehouse 32 152 2,815 7.7

All 495 2347 2,932 8.0

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Previously Unaddressed Issues

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Federal Standards Compliance• Bonneville/NEEA Shelf/Sales Analysis reveals that the 2014 market contained many

non-compliant halogen and incandescent lamps– Standards became effective 1/1/2012 – 1/1/2014

– Note that EISA is a manufacture and import standard, not a sales standard

• Despite this phenomenon Staff/CAT still recommend applying current standards as an adjustment to the Shelf/Sales baseline

– Data is from 2014, measure will be implemented in 2016 • two more years for standards to filter into the market

– Effect of displacing a non-compliant lamp sale (via program) is just to have someone else install that non-compliant lamp

• Program would need to remove non-compliant lamps from circulation to have a regional effect

– Consistent with previous Residential Lighting analyses and other appliance measures: non-compliant models in baseline data sets are either removed or adjusted to reflect the efficiency standard

– This assumes manufacturers are following the law

[PAUSE FOR DISCUSSION]

Federal Standards Compliance

% of sales for this lamp type/ lumen

group

Year standard became effective

Federal Standards Compliance

• Markets take several years to reflect EISA lighting standards

• Periodic shelf surveys in California funded by CPUC allow for a time series analysis

• Note that standards became effective in CA one year earlier than the rest of the U.S.

Data source: DNV GL, www.bulbstockdata.com , query for incandescent and halogen medium screw base a-lamps from all retail channels

http://www.bulbstockdata.com/

Lumen Shift• Shelf/Sales data shows a shift

in consumer trends– General Purpose and Dimmable

• Many Incandescent and Halogen lamps marketed as “60W” equivalent are less than 749 lumens

• Not the case for CFL and LED (~800 lumens, as expected)

– Reflectors and Outdoors:• May have been inaccuracies

mapping RBSA wattages to correct lumen bins

• Suggests merging 310 to 749 and 750 to 1049 lumen bins– Rather than 750 to 1049 and

1050 to 1489

Lamp Type Lumen Bin2014

Shelf/Sales2011 RBSA

sockets250 to 309 0% 2%310 to 749 6% 6%

Decorative and Mini-Base 750 to 1049 0% 2%1050 to 1489 0% 0%1490 to 2600 0% 0%250 to 309 0% 1%310 to 749 51% 6%

General Purpose and Dimmable 750 to 1049 17% 44%1050 to 1489 12% 8%1490 to 2600 2% 5%250 to 309 0% 0%310 to 749 3% 4%

Globe 750 to 1049 0% 3%1050 to 1489 0% 0%1490 to 2600 0% 0%250 to 309 0% 0%310 to 749 5% 1%

Reflectors and Outdoor 750 to 1049 0% 10%1050 to 1489 1% 4%1490 to 2600 0% 1%250 to 309 0% 0%310 to 749 0% 0%

Three-Way 750 to 1049 1% 0%1050 to 1489 1% 0%1490 to 2600 0% 1%

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Storage

• Some program lamps do not get installed right away

• Most get installed within a few years

• This spreads savings out over time, relative to installing all lamps as soon as acquired

• Issue discussed at the October 15, 2013 RTF meeting

Removal Rate

Storage Rate

Removal Rate

Storage Rate

Retail 2% 24% 2% 0%

Direct Install 2% 0% 2% 0%

Mail by Request 2% 24% 2% 0%

Unsolicited Mail 2% 24% 2% 24%

Give Away 2% 24% 2% 24%

CFLs LEDs

Current and proposed removal and storage rates

Storage Rate – CFL Failure

• But not all retail lamps get installed right awayNote:1) Installation rate

increases in first few years

2) But some lamps installed in the first couple of years are already failing

3) The lifetime of the retail measure (6.1) is longer than that of the direct install measure (5.5).

From 10/15/13 RTF Presentation

Storage• At Oct. 2013 meeting, RTF decided to

– Extend measure life for measures where storage was a factor to estimate median time to failure

– Reduce savings by the storage rate

• At that time, the RTF rejected a suggestion to disregard the storage rate because, over multiple program years, previous years’ stored lamps provide savings where current year stored lamps do not.

• With the switch to a more complex baseline replacement model for this measure update, Staff/CAT recommend revising the treatment of storage.

• Staff/CAT approach: – Assume [1- StorageRate] lamps get installed at time of measure implementation and

[StorageRate] lamps get installed two years after.

– Extend measure life to reflect some delayed installations

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Measure Scope• Three-way lamps

– Assumed baseline: other three-way lamps with similar lumen levels

– But they will work in regular sockets (on the medium output setting)

– Uncommon: 2% of shelf/sales, 1% of RBSA sockets

– Exempt from EISA and predominantly inc/hal >> High estimated savings

With reduction in savings from general purpose lamps, there is potential for programs to supply these lamps beyond the demand for three-way lamps

– Staff/CAT approach:

• Group three-ways with General Purpose/Dimmable

– Gets savings right on average

– Removes perverse incentives for program over-supply of three-way lamps

Measure Scope

• Direct Install – Low Use– Mostly “Other” space types

– Approximately 6% of RBSA sockets

– Opportunity to reduce measure list

– Staff/CAT Approach• Exclude “Closet” from measure

– Low savings, ability to reduce measure list

• Add “Other” to “Moderate Use”,– Avoids ambiguity about “other”

space type

RBSA RoomType RTF Category Hours of UseExterior Exterior 3.7Family Room High Use 3.3Kitchen High Use 3.6Living Room High Use 2.8Basement/Utility Room Moderate Use 0.8Bedroom Moderate Use 1.4Dining Room Moderate Use 1.9Garage Moderate Use 1.1Laundry Room Moderate Use 1.5Master Bedroom Moderate Use 1.1Bathroom Moderate Use 1.2Hall Moderate Use 2Offi ce Moderate Use 1.8Closet Low Use 0.08Other Low Use 0.21

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Results• Comparison of proposed savings to current savings is not exact because

lumen bins, lamp types, and space types have changed

• The mapping below – of proposed measure identifiers to current measure identifiers – is used only to compare results between the two analyses in the following slides.

Proposed CurrentLumen binsx 250 to 664 lumens250 to 1049 lumens1050 to 1489 lumens1490 to 2600 lumens 1440 to 2600 lumensLamp typesDecorative and Mini-Base Decorative and Mini-BaseGeneral Purpose, Dimmable, and Three-Way General Purpose and DimmableGlobe GlobeReflectors and Outdoor Reflectors and Outdoorx Three-WaySpace typesExterior ExteriorModerate UseHigh Usex Low-use Interior

Moderate and High-use Interior

665 to 1439 lumens

Results - Savings

Results shown for Retail delivery mechanism. For other delivery mechanisms, see the “Results” sheet of the measure assessment workbook. Select delivery mechanism in cell Z3.

Results – Incremental Cost


250

to 1

049

lum

ens

1050

to 1

489

lum

ens

1490

to 2

600

lum

ens

250

to 1

049

lum

ens

1050

to 1

489

lum

ens

1490

to 2

600

lum

ens

250

to 1

049

lum

ens

1050

to 1

489

lum

ens

1490

to 2

600

lum

ens

250

to 1

049

lum

ens

1050

to 1

489

lum

ens

1490

to 2

600

lum

ens

250

to 1

049

lum

ens

1050

to 1

489

lum

ens

1490

to 2

600

lum

ens

250

to 1

049

lum

ens

1050

to 1

489

lum

ens

1490

to 2

600

lum

ens

250

to 1

049

lum

ens

1050

to 1

489

lum

ens

1490

to 2

600

lum

ens

250

to 1

049

lum

ens

1050

to 1

489

lum

ens

1490

to 2

600

lum

ens

Decorative and Mini-Base

General Pur-pose,

Dimmable, and Three-Way

Globe Reflectors and Outdoor

Decorative and Mini-Base

General Pur-pose,

Dimmable, and Three-Way

Globe Reflectors and Outdoor

CFL LED

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

Incremental Capital Cost and Avoided Replacement Benefit - Retail

Current, Incremental Capital Cost Proposed, Incremental Capital Cost Proposed, PV Avoided Replacement Benefit

2006

$

Results - Lifetime


Results – Cost Effectiveness

Y-axis limited to 20. Many

measures have a B/C

ratio greater than 20.


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Motion“I move that the RTF approve the Residential Lighting – Screw-in Lamps UES measure as presented:

• Set the category to ‘Proven’

• Set the status to ‘Active’

• Set the sunset date to August 31, 2016”

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Backup slides – Lamp Costs

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Lamp Cost

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Lamp Cost

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Lamp Cost

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Lamp CostSome values greater than $20

Residential Lighting Screw-in Lamps Ryan Firestone August 18, 2015.

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Transcript of Residential Lighting Screw-in Lamps Ryan Firestone August 18, 2015.