Residential _draft Report_l&t 17.3.13v2
description
Transcript of Residential _draft Report_l&t 17.3.13v2
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Pan India Residential market analysis
Presented to:
L&T
April,2013
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Contents
2
• Residential market Mumbai 3
• Residential Market Navi Mumbai 8
• Residential Market Thane 13
• Residential market Pune 18
• Residential Market Gurgaon 24
• Residential market Noida 30
• Residential market Greater Noida 35
• Residential market Faridabad 41
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Content
3
• Residential market Bangalore 50
• Residential Market Chennai 56
• Residential Market Hyderabad 62
• Residential Market Kolkata 68
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Summary: City-wise Inference
4
CITY QUARTERS TO SELL QUARTERS TO COMPLETE INFERENCE
Mumbai 11.22 10.18 Market is having strong competition
Navi Mumbai 8.87 9.7 Market is having weak competition
Thane 7.66 8.2 Market is having weak competition
Pune 5.02 7.49 Market is having weak competition
Gurgaon 3.61 11.8 Market is having weak competition
Noida 5.75 10.9 Market is having weak competition
Greater Noida 13.1 11.7 Market is having strong competition
Gurgaon 3.61 11.8 Market is having strong competition
Ghaziabad 5.26 10.1 Market is having strong competition
Bangalore 5.68 8.68 Market is having strong competition
Chennai 5.18 7.92 Market is having strong competition
Hyderabad 9.06 7.07 Market is having strong competition
Kolkata 6.42 9.58 Market is having strong competition
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MUMBAI Residential market
5
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Price contour
6
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Age of inventory & completed
units
7
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Launch & absorption trend
8
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Weighted average price
9
For the most part of the analysis period fresh launches were at a noticeable discount to the average inventory price
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Unsold stock and quarters to
sale
10
Though the unsold inventory remained stable, quarters to sell significantly went up on account
of diminishing sales velocities.
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Launch to completion price
appreciation
11
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NAVI MUMBAI Residential market
12
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Age of inventory & completed
units
13
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Launch & absorption trend
14
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Weighted average price
15
For the most part of the analysis period fresh launches were priced higher than the average inventory price, hinting at price appreciation and or quality appreciation at an inventory level.
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Unsold stock & quarters to
sell
16
Though the unsold inventory marginally moved up, quarters to sell significantly went up on
account of diminishing sales velocities.
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THANE Residential market
17
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Age of inventory & completed
units
18
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Launch and absorption trend
19
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Weighted average price
20
For the most part of the analysis period fresh launches were at a noticeable discount to the average inventory price
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Unsold stock and quarters to
sale
21
Though the unsold inventory marginally moved up, quarters to sell significantly went up on
account of diminishing sales velocities.
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PUNE Residential market
22
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Price contour map
23
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Age of Inventory & Completed
units
24
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Launch & absorption trend
25
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Weighted average price
26
For the most part of the analysis period fresh launches were at a noticeable discount to the average inventory price
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Unsold stock & quarters to
sale
27
The unsold inventory and quarters to sell remained constant on account of balanced unit launches and
sales.
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Launch to completion price
appreciation
28
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NCR_NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION Residential market
29
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Price contour
30
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Launch to completion price
appreciation for NCR
31
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NCR_GURGAON Residential market
32
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Launch trends
33
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Absorption trend
34
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Weighted average price
35
The most part of the analysis period fresh launches were at a noticeable discount to the average inventory price, however the last two quarters have seen a trend reversal.
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Unsold stock & quarters to
sell
36
The unsold inventory and quarters to sell remained constant on account of balanced unit launches and
sales.
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NCR_NOIDA Residential market
37
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Age of inventory & completed
units
38
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Launch & absorption trend
39
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Weighted average price
40
For the most part of the analysis period fresh launches were at a noticeable discount to the average inventory price
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Unsold stock & quarters to
sell
41
Though the unsold inventory marginally moved up, quarters to sell significantly went up on
account of diminishing sales velocities.
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NCR_GREATER NOIDA Residential market
42
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Age of Inventory & project
completions
43
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Launch trend
44
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Absorption trend
45
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Weighted average price
46
For the most part of the analysis period fresh launches were at a noticeable discount to the average inventory price
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Unsold stock & quarters to
sell
47
Though the unsold inventory marginally moved up, quarters to sell significantly went up on
account of diminishing sales velocities.
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NCR_FARIDABAD Residential market
48
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Launch & absorption trend
49
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Weighted average price
50
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Unsold stock & Quarters to
sell
51
The unsold inventory and quarters to sell remained constant on account of balanced unit launches and
sales.
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NCR_GHAZIABAD Residential market
52
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Launch & absorption trend
53
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Weighted average price
54
For the most part of the analysis period fresh launches were at a noticeable discount to the average inventory price
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Unsold stock & quarters to
sell
55
The unsold inventory and quarters to sell remained constant on account of balanced unit launches and
sales.
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BANGALORE Residential Market
56
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57
Price contour map
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Age of Inventory & Project
completions
58
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Launch to completion price
appreciation
59
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Launch Trends
60
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Absorption Trends
61
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Weighted Average Price
62
For the most part of the analysis period fresh launches were at a noticeable discount to the average inventory price
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63
Unsold stock & quarters to
sale
The unsold inventory and quarters to sell remained constant on account of balanced unit launches and
sales.
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CHENNAI Residential Market
64
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Price contour map
65
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Launch to completion price
appreciation
66
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Age of inventory & project
completion
67
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Launch trends
68
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Absorption trend
69
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Weighted average price
70
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Unsold stock and quarters to
sale
71
The unsold inventory and quarters to sell remained constant on account of balanced unit launches and
sales.
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HYDERABAD Residential Market
72
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Launch to completion price
appreciation
73
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Age of inventory & project
completion
74
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Launch trends
75
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Absorption trend
76
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Weighted average price
77
For the most part of the analysis period fresh launches were at a noticeable discount to the average inventory price
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Unsold stock & quarters to
sale
78
The unsold inventory and quarters to sell remained constant on account of balanced unit launches and
sales.
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KOLKATA Residential Market
79
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Launch to completion price
appreciation
80
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Age of inventory & project
completion
81
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Launch trend
82
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Absorption trend
83
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Weighted average price
84
For the most part of the analysis period fresh launches were at a noticeable discount to the average inventory price
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Unsold stock & quarters to
sale
85
The market has witnessed inventory buildup due to fresh launches and diminishing sales.
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ANNEXURES
86
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Price Appreciation launch to
completion
87
Price change from project launch to
completion
Average of CAGR %
Average of Absolute %
change
Bangalore 11% Bangalore 31%
Chennai 10% Chennai 26%
Hyderabad 4% Hyderabad 9%
Kolkata 13% Kolkata 46%
Mumbai 20% Mumbai 64%
NCR 19% NCR 66%
Pune 14% Pune 40%
Average Pan India 13%
Average Pan
India 41%
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CASE Study: Superior selection
88
Since 2007, Chembur has witnessed the launch of 3,064 residential units, out of which almost 75% or 2,305 units have been sold. 2010 was an exceptionally good period for the residential property market for this destination. However, due to the slowdown in the overall Mumbai market, the inventory level in Chembur climbed up to 25% in Q2 2012
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Being strategically located within the central zone, Chembur is not only connected with the major office markets of the central zone but also the island city zone, western zone and Navi Mumbai zone. Hence, the overall growth of employment in the MMR will feed the residential market of this destination. Due to its proximity to the revered office market of the Bandra Kurla Complex (BKC) and increasing concentration of office developments in the central zone, we expect the attractiveness of residential property in this destination to go up in future. At present, the destination has connectivity through the Eastern Expressway, which connects it with the prominent office space locations in the central zone. Besides, the mass rapid connectivity is provided by the suburban rail network that connects it with the CBD locations of Fort and Nariman Point through Mumbai CST. Going forward, scale of upcoming infrastructure projects will significantly boost the connectivity of Chembur in the foreseeable future. The Eastern Freeway Project is one important project that will link Chembur with the CBD of South Mumbai. This link, running parallel to the Eastern Expressway, is in advanced stages of construction and shall be operational by H2 2013. The Santacruz Chembur Link Road is another pivotal infrastructure project that will connect Chembur with the western zone. This 6.45 km. road will start at Amar Mahal Junction in Chembur and end up to Santacruz East thereby becoming a connecting link between the Eastern Expressway and the Western Expressway. This link will significantly reduce the travel time from Chembur to the western zone when it is ready in 2013. Connectivity through a mass rapid transport system has a particularly high bearing on the growth of real estate development in the MMR. The upcoming 20.2 km. Chembur –Wadala- Jacob Circle monorail project is the first monorail project in the MMR. Phase I beginning from Chembur and terminating at Wadala is in advanced stages of construction and expected to be open to public by early 2013. Phase II will connect Chembur with Jacob Circle in the island city zone via Wadala. This project will directly link Chembur with the office market of Lower Parel. The Metro Rail Phase II (Charkop - Bandra- Mankhurd) will further enhance the connectivity of Chembur with the western zone. Work has been awarded to the contractor but is lagging behind schedule. While the project is unlikely to be complete in our forecast horizon of five years, it will have a positive impact on prices during this period.
CASE Study: Superior selection
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At present, Prabhadevi is an established residential market commanding an average price of `28,000/sq.ft. At an average of `12,000/sq.ft. Chembur residential property sells at a 57% discount. Based on our investment rationale discussed above, we forecast this discount to narrow down to 37% by 2017.
CASE Study: Superior selection
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Type Area (sq.ft.)
Ticket Size
(` Mn.)
1 BHK 600-760 5.4 - 7.6
2 BHK 1000-1150 9.5 - 11.5
3 BHK 1350-1700 12.8 - 18.7
4 BHK 1600-1750 16 - 19.3
Project Developer No. of units
Launch
Date
Completion
Date
Views Dheeraj Group 308 May-10 Jun-14
Brizo Residency Red Brick 132 Dec-10 Feb-14
Mangal Moorti Mangal Moorti Developer 128 Jan-10 Dec-14
Akshay Paradise Akshay Corporation 70 Jun-11 Oct-14
Investment option: Select Residential Projects in the destination
Ticket size of investment
CASE Study: Superior selection
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Thank You
MUMBAI PUNE GURGAON BANGALORE HYDERABAD CHENNAI KOLKATA
Knight Frank India Pvt. Ltd. 1st Floor, Paville House, Off Veer Savarkar Marg, Prabhadevi, Mumbai - 25 Tel 022 6745 0101 www.knightfrank.com