Researcher_ China Set to Conduct Anti-satellite Test This Month _ Washington Free Beacon

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Chinese ASAT Missile TestLoomsResearcher: China set to conduct anti-satellite test this month

BY: Bill Gertz FollowFollow @BillGertz@BillGertz

January 4, 2013 4:45 pm

Chinas military is set to conduct a

strategic anti-satellite (ASAT) missile test

sometime this month, according to a report

reaching the United States from China.

Gregory Kulacki, a researcher at the Union

ofConcerned Scientists, stated in a blog

post Friday that contacts in China

revealed that an announcement on the

upcoming ASAT test recently circulated

inside Chinas government.

Kulacki said he confirmed that U.S. defense officials also are concerned the Chinese will

conduct a potentially destabilizing ground-ascent missile test.

The ground-launch ASAT missile could be targeted against a satellite test target in space whosedestruction would cause a second large debris field in earths orbit in one scenario, as occurred

following Chinas unannounced January 2007 ASAT test against a weather satellite.

Tens of thousands of debris pieces from the weather satellite remain in orbit and have

threatened to damage both manned and unmanned satellites in collisions during the high

speeds of orbit in space.

Given these high-level administration concerns and past Chinese practice, there seems to be a

strong possibility China will conduct an ASAT test within the next few weeks, Kulacki stated,

adding that the type of test and target are not known.

Pentagon spokeswoman Maj. Catherine Wilkinson declined to comment on what she called

intelligence matters.

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We carefully monitor Chinas military developments and urge China to exhibit greater

transparency regarding its capabilities and intentions, she said in a statement.

The Free Beacon first reported in October that Chinas military is preparing to conduct a test of

a new and more capable high-earth orbit anti-satellite missile called the Dong Ning-2, or DN-2.

Defense officials told the Free Beacon that intelligence reports of the ASAT missile test

indicated that the Chinese had delayed the test until after the Nov. 6 election to avoid upsettingPresident Barack Obamas reelection bid.

The reports indicated the DN-2 missile test had been set for November.

The test will be the first of a new, high earth-orbit interceptor capable of destroying strategic

navigation, communication, or intelligence satellites by ramming into them at high speeds if

China conducts it.

The ASAT missile is one of several high-tech Chinese weapons systems under development

that are designed to target U.S. military advantages. U.S. satellites are critical tools for

commanding forces, guiding missiles, and gathering intelligence over long distances.

China could severely restrict the U.S. militarys ability to conduct long-range operations such as

a defense of Taiwan, Japan, or South Korea with as few as two-dozen ASAT missiles.

The last Chinese test in 2007 knocked out a low-earth orbit satellite some 558 miles in space.

The new missile would target satellites in space between 12,000 and 22,236 miles above earth.

Chinas ASAT program is one of the most closely guarded secrets for the Chinese military,

along with its cyber warfare programs.

A joint Pentagon-State Department report to Congress on export controls said last year that in

addition to the direct-ascent [missile] ASAT program, China is developing other technologies

and concepts for kinetic and directed energy for ASAT missions, including electronic jamming

of satellite communications and lasers that disrupt satellites.

Chinas second major test of an ASAT missile took place in January 2010 when a missile

designated by the Pentagon as SC-19 was fired in what was assessed to be a dual ASAT and

missile defense interceptor test.

Kulacki said in his post that the Obama administration should press China not to conduct the

ASAT test.

The Obama administration should try to dissuade China from conducting the test, he said.

China may decide to test anyway but it might see value in canceling or postponing the test to

discuss these issues with the U.S.

Kulacki said if the test involves a high-earth orbit simulate attack, it could indicate China wants

to hold U.S. GPS navigational satellites at risk, much as the 2007 test was interpreted as a

signal China intends to attack U.S. satellites in low earth orbit.

Significantly reducing the capability of the U.S. GPS system would take a large-scale and well-
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coordinated attack so much so that targeting these satellites may not be an effective strategy,

he said.

Kulacki, who has lived and worked in China for 25 years, said in an email that the information on

the test was provided by informed sources I have known for many years who have a solid track

record.

He said he had no details of a possible test.

My impression is that the circulation of the test announcement was a routine matter and it may

have been overlooked by the senior leadership during the transition in November, Kulacki said

in the email.

With the transition over, it is possible that the new leadership has shelved or postponed the

test. If not, my hope is that high-level Obama administration intervention could elevate the issue,

forcing [Chinese President] Xi Jinping to make a decision on space security that, either way, will

tell U.S. officials more about how the new Chinese leadership will approach space security

issues than they know now.

This entry was posted in China, National Security and tagged anti-satellite,ASAT, Bill Gertz, China. Bookmark

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Bill Gertz Email Bill | Full Bio | RSSBill Gertz is the senior editor of the Washington Free Beacon.

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Researcher_ China Set to Conduct Anti-satellite Test This Month _ Washington Free Beacon

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