Overcoming Overpopulation

by

Alejandro LozanoSPEA-E476

September 30, 2013

Alejandro Lozano SPEA-E476

Overcoming Overpopulation

Introduction

Overpopulation is a troublesome issue that can be resolved through a series of globally coordinated initiatives. In 1798 Thomas Malthus first announced his general law of population, which states that the population ordinarily grows quicker than the food supply, until external factors such as war, famine, or disease return the population to homeostasis (National Geographic). Prior to the 18th century there was little to no discussion of the global population, nor was there a comprehensive way to measure its size. The Earth has two types of carrying capacities: the biophysical carrying capacity (physical carrying capacity with regard to consumption of resources) and the social carrying capacity (carrying capacity with regard to socially acceptable population density), both of which are relevant in designing a sustainable solution to overpopulation. Carrying capacity can be defined as the “maximal population size of a given species that an area can support without reducing its ability to support the same species in future generations”(Ehrlich). Overall, it is important to realize that there are several contributing factors to overpopulation.

Historical Background

In the 18th century, scientist such as Malthus began to acknowledge the startling fact that the human population was outgrowing their resources at an exponential rate, initiating the discussion of whether or not humans will one day surpass the biophysical carrying capacity. Over the course of history, many civilizations have concerned themselves with how to increase their population rather than how to regulate it. It was not until the Industrial Revolution that we began to see an enormous amount of growth in the human population. Until this point, the world’s population lingered around 250 million people and it remained relatively stable. Scientists accredit this growth to the innovation of agriculture and the increase in food supply (New York Times). The initial theory of overpopulation stems from the idea that land is a symbol of wealth and the amount of land on the planet is finite, thus, it would not be able to sustain an eternally increasing number of people.

Historically speaking pregnancy was inevitable, and there were very few governmental regulations regarding the size of a sustainable family. A combination of shorter life expectancies and a smaller global population size allowed for families to grow as large as the woman could physically bear. Limitations on family size and the consummation of children has been the most effective way of combating overpopulation in the most recent generations. The introduction of “birth control” was not widely available until the 1960’s and has been slowly combating the previous religious beliefs that “every sexual act must remain open to life” (New York Times). Clearly, throughout history, overpopulation was not a concern because, until recently, the world has not seen such a large growth in its population.

Important technological and medical advances have aided the population in growing as a whole over the past centuries. (See Figure 1) Innovations in agricultural technologies

Figure 1 (National Geographic) *Estimates in the Billions*

Alejandro Lozano SPEA-E476

have allowed many individuals in developing countries to survive childhood starvation, allowing them to not only consume resources, but also produce a noticeable amount of offspring. Many benefactors of the “green revolution,” which consisted of high-yield seeds, irrigation, pesticides and fertilizers, have been able to see the global grain production double over the past century (National Geographic). Eliminating prevalent diseases through a series of vaccines and antibiotics has reduced the mortality rate associated with various medical ailments. However, this has also created a mutation to our life cycle. Combined with better sanitation of our surrounding environment and a consistently strong source of nutrition, the life expectancy in industrialized countries has increased from 33 years to 77 years of age (National Geographic). This is a remarkable feat, which exemplifies the capabilities of human ingenuity, but the negative externalities associated with longer life expectancy are most always forgotten. Coupling an increase in life expectancy with a low infancy mortality rate can prove to be disastrous, acting as a catalyst for the over-consumption of precious resources. In whole, advances in the global community have displaced nature’s ability to regulate the amount of inhabitants it serves, in turn testing the limitations of Earth’s resources.

Overpopulation Today

Today we realize that sustainability is not only a optional condition, but it is more importantly a necessary one. Technological advances will fail to produce a biophysical carrying capacity that is infinite. The second law of thermodynamics states, “the total entropy within a closed system undergoing change must always increase as time passes” (Wedewer). It is possible to make small changes to a part without experiencing any immediate changes to the whole, but over time these changes can become significant. Huesemann explains in The Limits of Technological Solutions to Sustainable Development, “all industrial and economic activities have unavoidable negative environmental consequences.” Understanding the relationship between various facets of consumption is

Alejandro Lozano SPEA-E476

paramount in analyzing the problem and developing a solution. Wedemer articulates this excellently in her example about the use of fossil fuels:

“In having access to oil for the production of gasoline, for example, civilization is observing increased order, and yet this increase is not system-wide. It does not include the air, which as a result of using gasoline becomes polluted, any of the natural landscapes affected by the oil drilling, or the depletion of the resource itself. Order in these areas of the system is decreasing as a result of the increased order that a fuel such as gasoline provides us with.”

It is inevitable that our population will continue to grow in the upcoming decades. In 2030, the largest generation of adolescents will be entering into their childbearing years, and the focus will be on how our resources are being consumed rather than the “number” of the global population (National Geographic). The current population is being sustained off the one-time inheritance of natural resources. There are currently one billion people that do not consume enough dietary energy to be able to perform normal work duties. Overpopulation will further lead to inadequate fresh drinking water and clean water for sewage treatment. In the regions of the world where developing countries are attempting to industrialize their economy it is difficult to curb the birth rate. In whole, our current population of 7 billion is growing quickly and demanding a solution that allows future generations to enjoy the same resources we tend to take for granted today.

Laws Surrounding Topic

Currently, China and India are the only two countries that have successfully implemented national laws with specific regard to population size. The Peoples Republic of China has a population of 1.3 billion people. In 1979, the government acknowledged the issue and implemented a family planning policy, more commonly referred to as the “one child rule.” This law has been associated with evading between 200-400 million births, which would have increased the country’s population to an overwhelming 1.7 billion. In the 1970’s, India implemented a strategy that attempted to combat their growing population of 1.1 billion, requiring all males with 2 children to be sterilized. The program has been widely criticized, many opponents suggest that it did not work and in turn created a strong aversion to family planning. This left India to continue to grow and by the end of 2050 they have projected the population to be 1.7 billion (National Geographic). Ted Turner has recently advocated to the United Nations to adopt a global one-child policy similar to that of China’s (Hoevel). Clearly, some reform seen in highly populated countries such as India and China could be viewed as a template for an international policy.

Proposed Solution

It is too late to prevent the procreation of the 2030 generation, but it is not too late to change how they are taught to use the limited amount of resources. Sustainability is defined as the “development that meets the needs and aspirations of present population without compromising the ability of the future generations to meet their own needs” (Ehrlich). If we are to educate future generations of our environmental concerns we must

Alejandro Lozano SPEA-E476

educate them that the environments carrying capacity is dependent on two separate factors for humans:

1. The substantial difference in individual types and the quantity of resources consumed per individual type.

2. The rapid cultural evolution of types of resources supplying each unit of consumption.

Essentially, it is important to note that carrying capacity is a function of characteristics of both the organism and the habitat in which the organism resides. The impacts of a population are measured by three factors, all of which are dependent on each other: the size of the population, the per-capita consumption, and the environmental damage inflicted by a populations technological advances. Understanding how the population affects these three areas can be essential in properly assessing how to deal with the large population that the future holds. It is imperative that there is a constant measure of the amount of available resources. Resources are broken down into three categories that include free service resources (those which don’t undergo degradation and depletion), renewable v. nonrenewable resources (finite resources), and substitutive v. non-substitutive resources (resources with substitutes). Obviously, aiding future generations in designing a solution would be difficult without understanding all of the necessary characteristics required to achieve maximum sustainability.

Subsequent to noting the characteristics and how to achieve maximum sustainability, future generations will be able to use a variety of techniques to manage precious resources in conjunction with reducing the overall fertility rate. Our generation must initiate the solution by addressing the issue in Sub-Saharan South Africa. The average fertility rate is among the15 highest-fertility countries in Sub-Saharan Africa are about 5 children per women. (United Nations) Fertility can be address by introducing and educating females about contraceptives. For instance, in Kerala, several investments into health and education have helped slow the fertility rate to 1.7 children per woman, compared to the national average of 2.6 children per woman. They believe the key is education and a high literacy rate among women (National Geographic). Increased fertility rates over the next few years in countries such as Ethiopia, Democratic Republic of Congo, Niger, Uganda, and many others will have an adverse impact on population size and structure in the long run.

In addition, to solve the issue of overpopulation, developing countries need to genuinely look into the investment of time and resources into basic healthcare and waste management. Establishing an infrastructure can resolve several aspects of overpopulation, because as previously mentioned, fixating on population numbers does not solve the problem. Implementing an economic system in which resources are managed could be extremely effective in incentivizing already industrialized countries to aid developing countries. The use of trade can redistribute resources, removing the burden on any one particular region. Pricing these resources accordingly is important because if priced too low it encourages abuse, but if they are priced relatively high it can encourage innovation. The drastic gap between the rich and poor in the global community creates the inefficiency that we wish to correct. Resolving this issue is a matter of coming together as a global community. Overall, there is no one single solution that will resolve overpopulation, but rather there are multiple solutions and lots of room for innovation and improvement.

Alejandro Lozano SPEA-E476

Summary

In conclusion, our generation needs to insist that our short-term incentives and goals align with our long-term requirement to sustainability. People across the globe must address the problem and be willing to accept a lifestyle change in order to preserve our species. It is our duty as inhabitants of this magnificent environment to be aware of the environmental, social, and economic costs associated with overpopulation.