Research Methods Leadership 389. Measuring the Weight of Smoke Sometimes things that seem...

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Research Methods Research Methods Leadership 389 Leadership 389

Transcript of Research Methods Leadership 389. Measuring the Weight of Smoke Sometimes things that seem...

Research Research MethodsMethodsLeadership 389Leadership 389

Measuring the Weight of Measuring the Weight of SmokeSmoke

Sometimes things Sometimes things that seem that seem immeasurable can immeasurable can be measured wellbe measured well

It often takes It often takes creativity and a creativity and a leap of faith to leap of faith to figure out how to figure out how to measure some measure some thingsthings

OutlineOutline How do we Know?How do we Know? Scientific MethodScientific Method Four Canons of ScienceFour Canons of Science Hands-on ActivityHands-on Activity Induction and DeductionInduction and Deduction Our Bias to ProveOur Bias to Prove Three Approaches to Hypothesis Three Approaches to Hypothesis

TestingTesting

Methods of Acquiring Methods of Acquiring KnowledgeKnowledge

Non-scientificNon-scientific TenacityTenacity IntuitionIntuition AuthorityAuthority LogicLogic ObservationObservation

ScientificScientific Science Science

TenacityTenacity A method of A method of

acquiring knowledge acquiring knowledge based on superstition based on superstition or habitor habit

Mere exposure effectMere exposure effect PoliticiansPoliticians

Problems with Problems with tenacitytenacity May be inaccurateMay be inaccurate Doesn’t provide for Doesn’t provide for

correctionscorrections Tenacity in scienceTenacity in science

IntuitionIntuition An approach to acquiring An approach to acquiring

knowledge that is not based on knowledge that is not based on reasoning or inferringreasoning or inferring

Problem with intuitive approachProblem with intuitive approach No method for determining No method for determining

accurate vs inaccurate knowledgeaccurate vs inaccurate knowledge Cognitive and motivational biases Cognitive and motivational biases

affect perceptionaffect perception

Intuition in scienceIntuition in science Hypotheses derived from Hypotheses derived from

“hunches”“hunches”

AuthorityAuthority

A basis for acceptance of information A basis for acceptance of information because it is acquired from a highly because it is acquired from a highly respected sourcerespected source

Problem with authority:Problem with authority: Information may be inaccurateInformation may be inaccurate

Authority in science:Authority in science: Problem identification/hypothesis buildingProblem identification/hypothesis building Study designStudy design Data interpretationData interpretation

LogicLogic The acquisition of The acquisition of

knowledge through knowledge through reasoningreasoning

Problem with logic:Problem with logic: Often doesn’t provide Often doesn’t provide

accurate informationaccurate information The original assumption The original assumption

may be incorrectmay be incorrect Logic in science:Logic in science:

Logic is vital to science!Logic is vital to science! Developing hypothesesDeveloping hypotheses Developing method of Developing method of

testing hypothesestesting hypotheses

ObservationObservation The acquisition of The acquisition of

knowledge through knowledge through experienceexperience

Problem with Problem with observationobservation Cognitive and Cognitive and

motivational biases affect motivational biases affect perceptionperception

Memory is not infallibleMemory is not infallible Observation in scienceObservation in science

Science based on Science based on observationobservation

ScienceScience

"There is no institution in the modern "There is no institution in the modern world more prestigious than world more prestigious than science"science"

A method or logic of inquiryA method or logic of inquiry The best method for acquiring The best method for acquiring

knowledgeknowledge Method can be broken down into a Method can be broken down into a

series of stepsseries of steps

Scientific MethodScientific Method

1) Identifying the problem and forming 1) Identifying the problem and forming a hypothesisa hypothesis Suggestion accounts for hearing satanic Suggestion accounts for hearing satanic

messagesmessages 2) Designing the experiment2) Designing the experiment

3 groups (given different suggestion) listen 3 groups (given different suggestion) listen to 3 records played backwards and record to 3 records played backwards and record responsesresponses

3) Conducting the experiment3) Conducting the experiment Participants receive 1of 3 instruction sets Participants receive 1of 3 instruction sets

and then listen to 3 tapes.and then listen to 3 tapes.

Scientific MethodScientific Method

4) Testing the hypothesis4) Testing the hypothesis

5) Communicating the research results5) Communicating the research results Published article in Published article in The Journal of PsychologyThe Journal of Psychology

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Listen for words

Listen for satanicmessages

DeterminismDeterminism

The assumption that there is a The assumption that there is a lawfulness in nature.lawfulness in nature. Science is Science is “a search for order, for “a search for order, for

uniformities, for lawful relations among uniformities, for lawful relations among the events in nature”the events in nature”- - SkinnerSkinner

Naïve deterministsNaïve determinists

Cab ProblemCab Problem Cab involved in hit-and-runCab involved in hit-and-run

1) 85% of cabs in the city are Green, 15% are 1) 85% of cabs in the city are Green, 15% are BlueBlue

2) A witness identified cab as blue2) A witness identified cab as blue

Testing revealed the witness identified Testing revealed the witness identified colors of cabs correctly 80% of the time colors of cabs correctly 80% of the time (incorrectly 20%)(incorrectly 20%)

What is the probability that the cab in the What is the probability that the cab in the accident was blue?accident was blue?

Cab ProblemCab Problem Cab involved in hit-and-runCab involved in hit-and-run

1) Although the 2 companies are roughly equal in 1) Although the 2 companies are roughly equal in size, 85% of cab accidents in the city involve size, 85% of cab accidents in the city involve green cabs and 15% involve blue cabsgreen cabs and 15% involve blue cabs

2) A witness identified cab as blue2) A witness identified cab as blue

Testing revealed the witness identified colors Testing revealed the witness identified colors of cabs correctly 80% of the time (incorrectly of cabs correctly 80% of the time (incorrectly 20%)20%)

What is the probability that the cab in the What is the probability that the cab in the accident was blue?accident was blue?

DeterminismDeterminism

Close corollary to principle of Close corollary to principle of determinism: Theoriesdeterminism: Theories Theory:Theory:

Statement about causal relation between 2 Statement about causal relation between 2 or more variablesor more variables

HypothesisHypothesis Similar to theories but more limited in Similar to theories but more limited in

scope and less empirical supportscope and less empirical support

Science is EmpiricalScience is Empirical

To be empirical is to make observationsTo be empirical is to make observations Getting it straight from the horse’s mouthGetting it straight from the horse’s mouth

Philosophers debating the number of teeth a Philosophers debating the number of teeth a horse should havehorse should have

Biological philosopherBiological philosopher: As member of family Equidae, : As member of family Equidae, they should, like a zebra, have 34.they should, like a zebra, have 34.

Theological philosopherTheological philosopher: A scripturally unclean : A scripturally unclean grazer, should have less than a cow: about 28 teethgrazer, should have less than a cow: about 28 teeth

Empirical philosopherEmpirical philosopher: If we want to know how many : If we want to know how many teeth it has, let’s open its mouth and count.teeth it has, let’s open its mouth and count.

Science is EmpiricalScience is Empirical

Relatively modern assumptionRelatively modern assumption

Galileo began a new science based Galileo began a new science based on observation and experimentationon observation and experimentation Galileo’s main work showed a Galileo’s main work showed a

“passionate fight against any kind of “passionate fight against any kind of dogma based on authoritydogma based on authority”- Einstein”- Einstein

ParsimonyParsimony

ParsimonyParsimony A.K.A. Occam’s RazorA.K.A. Occam’s Razor

Entities must not be multiplied beyond what is Entities must not be multiplied beyond what is necessarynecessary

A problem must be stated in its basic and simplest A problem must be stated in its basic and simplest termsterms

AKA: Law of parsimonyAKA: Law of parsimony The simplest explanation should be preferred to more complex The simplest explanation should be preferred to more complex

explanationsexplanations That theory which makes the fewest number of assumptions is That theory which makes the fewest number of assumptions is

to be preferred over those which require a larger number of to be preferred over those which require a larger number of assumptions.assumptions.

Example: Crop circlesExample: Crop circles Many adoptions of Occam’s razorMany adoptions of Occam’s razor

Morgan’s canonMorgan’s canon Clever HansClever Hans

TestabilityTestability Theories should be Theories should be

testabletestable FalsifiabilityFalsifiability

Karl PopperKarl Popper

‘‘all swans are white’all swans are white’ One can always support One can always support

this point by pointing to this point by pointing to more white examplesmore white examples

A better test would be to A better test would be to find a black onefind a black one

(Ironically, black swans (Ironically, black swans were later discovered in were later discovered in Australia! )Australia! )

Hands-On Activity: Galileo’s Hands-On Activity: Galileo’s DiceDice

Comparing different ways of knowingComparing different ways of knowing Answer the questions gamblers once Answer the questions gamblers once

asked Galileo:asked Galileo: 400 years ago gamblers played game with 3 standard 400 years ago gamblers played game with 3 standard

dice. Most believed the probability of rolling a 9 was dice. Most believed the probability of rolling a 9 was the same as rolling a 10. However, some had a gut the same as rolling a 10. However, some had a gut intuition that 10 was a little more likely and their intuition that 10 was a little more likely and their casual observations supported this. Those who casual observations supported this. Those who believed the probability was equal said that there are believed the probability was equal said that there are six combinations of number that total nine (126, 135 six combinations of number that total nine (126, 135 144, 225, 234, 333) and there are 6 combinations that 144, 225, 234, 333) and there are 6 combinations that total 10 (136, 145, 226, 235, 244, 334). So, they total 10 (136, 145, 226, 235, 244, 334). So, they approached an authority for the answer: Galileo. I approached an authority for the answer: Galileo. I would like you to approach this problem only using would like you to approach this problem only using one particular way of knowing.one particular way of knowing.

Three ways of knowingThree ways of knowing

Group 1: The Logical Counter of Group 1: The Logical Counter of WaysWays

Group 2: The Logical Expected Group 2: The Logical Expected EvaluatorsEvaluators

Group 3 and 4: The EmpiricistsGroup 3 and 4: The Empiricists

QuestionsQuestions Which roll do you think is most likely, a 9 or a 10?Which roll do you think is most likely, a 9 or a 10?

11 2 2 33 44 55 66 77 88 99not at allnot at all extremelyextremely

How confident are you of this answer?How confident are you of this answer?

What is your best guess as to the exact What is your best guess as to the exact probability of rolling a 9 with a fiar set of 3 probability of rolling a 9 with a fiar set of 3 dice? What about 10? How confident are you dice? What about 10? How confident are you in this set of guesses?in this set of guesses?

Induction and DeductionInduction and Deduction

Scientists use logic to Scientists use logic to induce and deduce valid induce and deduce valid conclusionsconclusions

InductionInduction Moving from data to a Moving from data to a

general theory of conceptgeneral theory of concept Specific to generalSpecific to general

DeductionDeduction Moving from a theory to Moving from a theory to

particular statements particular statements concerning dataconcerning data

General to specificGeneral to specific

Data

Theory

Induction Deduction

Hypothesis TestingHypothesis Testing

Wason Selection taskWason Selection task

If a card has a vowel on one side, If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the then it has an even number on the other sideother side

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E T 4 72 A5 U

Hypothesis TestingHypothesis TestingWason Selection taskWason Selection task

If a card has a vowel on one side, If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the then it has an even number on the other sideother side

E T 4 72 A5 U

Hypothesis TestingHypothesis TestingWason Selection taskWason Selection task

If a card has a vowel on one side, If a card has a vowel on one side, then it has an even number on the then it has an even number on the other sideother side

Our Bias to “Prove”Our Bias to “Prove”

Pervasive confirmatory biasesPervasive confirmatory biases Positive test bias or hypothesis confirmation biasPositive test bias or hypothesis confirmation bias EX: Snyder and Swann (1978)EX: Snyder and Swann (1978)

•• Interview personInterview person Is he/she introvert/extrovertIs he/she introvert/extrovert Given list of Qs to askGiven list of Qs to ask

some about being introverted (in what situation do you wish some about being introverted (in what situation do you wish you could be more outgoing?)you could be more outgoing?)

some about being extroverted (what would you do to liven up some about being extroverted (what would you do to liven up a partya party

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Extraversion Hypo Introversion Hypo

Extraversionquestions

Introversionquestions

Neutral questions

Behavioral ConfirmationBehavioral Confirmation

Causing people to act the way you Causing people to act the way you expectexpect

•Word, Zanna & Cooper Word, Zanna & Cooper (1974)(1974)

–White interviewees perform White interviewees perform “better”“better”

–White interviewers behave White interviewers behave differently towards white and differently towards white and black intervieweesblack interviewees

–Trained interviewers to use Trained interviewers to use “White” or “Black” style“White” or “Black” style

–White interviewees who get White interviewees who get “White” style do better“White” style do better

Approaches to Approaches to Hypothesis TestingHypothesis Testing

ValidationValidation FalsificationFalsification QualificationQualification

TheoryTheory

““People perform tasks better when People perform tasks better when in the presence of others than when in the presence of others than when alone”alone”

ValidationValidation

Gather evidence to support or confirm the Gather evidence to support or confirm the hypothesishypothesis

Triplett (1898)Triplett (1898) Noticed bicyclists performed better when riding Noticed bicyclists performed better when riding

with otherswith others Study with children performing simple task Study with children performing simple task

either alone or with others.either alone or with others. Results:Results:

Children performed better when in the presence Children performed better when in the presence of others compared to when aloneof others compared to when alone

Social facilitationSocial facilitation

FalsificationFalsification Gather evidence to invalidate or disprove Gather evidence to invalidate or disprove

a hypothesisa hypothesis

Pessin (1933)Pessin (1933) Presence of others inhibits performance on a Presence of others inhibits performance on a

mazemaze Dashiell (1930)Dashiell (1930)

Learn nonsense syllables slowerLearn nonsense syllables slower

Social inhibitionSocial inhibition

QualificationQualification Attempt to identify conditions under Attempt to identify conditions under

which a hypothesis is true or notwhich a hypothesis is true or not Zajonc 1965Zajonc 1965

Dominant response:Dominant response: Well-learned or instinctive behaviors that the Well-learned or instinctive behaviors that the

organism has practiced and is primed to performorganism has practiced and is primed to perform Nondominant response:Nondominant response:

Novel, complicated, or untried behaviors that the Novel, complicated, or untried behaviors that the organism has never performed (or performed organism has never performed (or performed infrequently)infrequently)

Presence of others increases our tendency to Presence of others increases our tendency to perform dominant responsesperform dominant responses

Social facilitation/inhibition in Social facilitation/inhibition in poolroom poolroom Players identified as above or below Players identified as above or below

averageaverage Research team of 4 approached the Research team of 4 approached the

table and observed playingtable and observed playing Found classic facilitation/inhibition Found classic facilitation/inhibition

effectseffects

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