FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF Hashim A. Ahmed

ETHIOPIA

Ethiopia's Climate-Ethiopian Development Research Institute (EDRI)

hashima@mtdedri orgResilient Green Economy

hashima@mtdedri.org

OECD/GGGI Joint forum, Green Growth Development Paths for a better future NovemberDevelopment Paths for a better future. November 22 2012, Paris.

0

Currently, more than 85% of GHG emissions in Ethiopia come from agriculture and forestry Total GHG emissions of ~150 Mt CO2e in 2010

BuildingsIndustry

2

3%y

3%Transport

3%Power3%

A i lt51%

Forestry37%

Agriculture51%

Forestry

1

Emissions occur largely within subsistence agricultureMt CO2e per year in 2010

Main emissions factorsCurrent GHG emissions

2 p y

Current cattle population (over 50 million) and other live-stock (~100 million) generate GHG mainly in the form of▪ Methane emissions arising from digestion processes

65Live-stock

▪ Nitrous oxide emissions arising from excretions

Crop cultivation contributes to the concentration of GHG by▪ Req iring se of fertiliser

13Crop

Agri-culture

▪ Requiring use of fertiliser▪ Emitting nitrous oxide from crop residues reintroduced

into the ground

s

Forestry emissions are driven by ▪ Deforestation for expansion of agricultural land▪ Forest degradation due to fuelwood consumption

55

Forestry

2

▪ Formal and informal loggingy

Under a business as usual growth path, emissions would increase from 150 Mt to 400 Mt (2010 to 2030)Mt CO2e per year

BAU emissions development

IndustryPowerAgriculture

Mt CO2e per year

400

BuildingsTransportForestry

185 Main factors include popu-lation growth, industriali-

90150

sation and expansion of agricultural activities

75

55 70

405

555

3

5

2030 – BAU10

2010

5 5

The Government of Ethiopia has launched its Climate-Resilient Green Economy initiative (CRGE) with 2 main objectives

Developmentinitiatives

Green growth pathReach middle income threshold by 2025 and keep

Resilient economyBuild the capacity of the economy to cope with the adverse CRGE

Resilienteconomy

Green economy

2025 and keep growth carbon neutral

e ad e seconsequences of climate change

Resilienceinitiatives

Abatement/ avoidanceinitiatives

CRGE

initiatives

4

High Level Gov’t leadership and inter-ministerial approach ensure national commitment and alignment across government

Environmental Council

Ministerial Steering Committee(chair: Newai Gebre-ab, EDRI)

Technical Committee (chair: Dessalegne Mesfin, EPA)

Sub-Technical Committees

B ildiEl t i

Agriculture

Building & green cities

SoilElectric power supply

Forestry Live-stock

Trans-port Industry Health1

1 Not operative, yet

The Green Economy strategy lays out a path towards middle income status, while keeping emissions constantEmissions per year; Mt CO2e Agriculture Power Industryp y 2

90

400

g

Forestry Transport

y

Buildings

90

185-64%

130

145

5

7552010

405

90150

55

GreenEconomy

BuildingsIndustryTransportForestryAgriculture2030 –BAU

1070

2010

5 555

t CO2e/capita

Economy2030

BAU

1.1

Green Economy initiatives

3.01.8Emissions per capita

6

t CO2e/capita

Additional abatement potential of ~19 Mt CO2e from exporting green power to regional markets

Concrete initiatives for Ethiopia's key sources of GHG emissions across 4 main pillars have been developed

Abatement potential

Agriculture – improve crop/livestock practices▪ Reduce deforestation by agricultural ▪ Improve animal value

90

Abatement potentialMt CO2e in 2030

intensification and irrigation▪ Use lower-emitting techniques

chain▪ Shift animal mix▪ Mechanisation

Forestry protect and grow forests as carbon stocks 130Forestry – protect and grow forests as carbon stocks

▪ Reduce demand for fuelwood via efficient stoves▪ Increase sequestration by afforestation/reforestation and forest management

130

Power – deploy renewable and clean power generation

▪ Build renewable power generation capacity and switch off fossil fuel power ▪ Export renewable power to substitute fossil fuel power abroad

19

po t e e ab e po e to subst tute oss ue po e ab oad

Industry, transport and buildings – use advanced technologies ▪ Improve industry energy efficiency ▪ Expand electric rail

35

7

p y gy y▪ Improve production processes▪ Tighten cars’ fuel efficiency

p▪ Substitute fossil fuel with biofuels▪ Improve waste management

Half of abatement initiatives can be implemented at a positive return – and more than 85% cost less than USD 10 per t CO2eEthiopia's abatement opportunities cost curve Agriculture Power Industry

120

Abatement costUSD per t CO2e

p pp g

Forestry Transport

y

86% of abatementEfficient Lower-

30

40

20

86% of abatement potential below USD 10 per t CO2e

Efficient stoves Power

exports2

Lower-emitting techniques

220200180160140-10

0120100

10

8060 260 28024040200

10

-30

-20

0Abatement potential1

Mt CO2e per yearAgricultural intensification

Afforestation/ reforestation

Shift of animal mix

-90

-80

Electric rail

8

-230

1 Represents total identified gross potential, some measures are not additive (total net potential is less than sum of all gross potentials)2 Non-domestic potential (will arise only in importing countries) Note: Assuming full implementation of all levers where cost has been evaluated (excluding buildings/green cities and industry other than cement)

Electric rail

Climate Resilience means reducing vulnerability and adopting adaptation measures to protect Ethiopian people and economy

Rationale for strengthening

Ethiopia can already feel the

Rationale for strengthening Climate Resilience

Developmentinitiatives

Ethiopia can already feel the impacts of a changing climate today

Protect the population from adverse effects of global warming ( i ll i l )

Resilienteconomy

Resilienceinitiatives

Abatement/ avoidancei iti ti Safeguard economic

(especially in rural areas)economy

initiativesinitiatives Safeguard economic development and aim to reach middle income status against climate change

9

Launched the climate resilience strategy in April this year

Sectors impacted by climate change hazards

Sector

3-6 regions perceive as relevant

<2 regions perceive as relevant

Top priority –>6 regions perceive as relevant

p y g

HealthWater/ energy Buildings

Trans-portation Industry

Agricul-ture

Flooding

Droughts

Diseases

10

The building blocks for climate resilience

FutureFutureCurrent impacts Current impacts

Looking out to 2025

Looking out to 2025

Future impacts (out to

Future impacts (out to pp 20252025 (2050)(2050)

11

Current Impacts to agriculture

12

Future impacts ‐ Temperature

ANNUAL AVERAGES FOR ETHIOPIAANNUAL AVERAGES FOR ETHIOPIA

Future impacts on precipitation

14

Structure of final report 

Ethiopia’s Climate-Resilient Green Economy

Aimed to be launched in April 2013Green Economy

Climate Resilience strategy: Agriculture, Forestry and Land-Use

April 2013

Chapter structure:FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA

Chapter structure:

1. Introduction2. Impacts and

vulnerability 3.Response measures 4.Prioritization and

synthesis synthesis

The basic structure of the permanent institutional set-up for the Climate-Resilient Green Economy has been defined

Responsibilities Compositionp p

EnvironmentalCouncil (EC)

▪ Approve environmental standards and directives, recommends laws

▪ Establish MSC, appoint its chair

▪ Chair: H.E. Prime Minister▪ Leading officials (govern-

ment, private sector and civil society)

Ministerial SteeringCommittee (MSC)

▪ Subsidiary to EC▪ Oversee CRGE initiative ▪ Approve project and funding▪ Monitor implement./expenditure

▪ Chair: appointed by EC▪ Leading officials/experts

from involved institutions

MoFED▪ EPA: Provide technical supervision

and expertise, evaluate proposals and monitor implementation

▪ MoFED: Secure and channel financial support

▪ Leading professionals and expert teamsEPA

TechnicalCommittee

▪ Review, prioritize and recommend – Projects/programmes – Funding

▪ Coordinate CRGE functions of EUs

▪ Chairs of environmental units (EUs)

▪ Experts from EPA and MoFED

financial support

EU EU EU

Reg.EPAs

▪ Coordinate regional implementation

▪ Experts from regional EPAs

▪ Develop sectoral implementation plan for initiativesEU

▪ Sectoral experts from each involved institution (e.g.

Environmental units1

1 Embedded in and reporting to line-institutionsSource: CRGE

▪ Develop funding proposals▪ Coordinate and drive

implementation

ministries)

FEDERAL DEMOCRATIC REPUBLIC OF ETHIOPIA

Thank you for your attentionThank you for your attention