Research & Information

Research & Information

DorsetHousing Market

Assessment

Stakeholder Event

1st December 2006.


Introduction

What is a housing market Assessment?

Why do one in Dorset?

What are the aims?

What area is being covered?

How is it being tackled?

Where are we in the process?


What is a Housing market Assessment?

• Study to investigate the need and demand for housing within a given market area.

• Broader than just a Housing Need study.• Examines socio – economic trends, demand

pressures, key drivers. • Projects future need for affordable and market

housing. • Will influence development of Housing and

Planning Policy.


Why do one in Dorset?

• Draft PPS3 and Practise Guidance • RSS - DTZ Study 2004.• Concerns that Dorset HNS out of date /

incompatible.• Dorset one of 3 pilots in the SW - £20,000

Housing Body funding.


What are the aims?

• Analyse secondary and primary data in order to identify the location and amount of market and affordable housing needed.

• Provide evidence to inform RSS and LDF development.

• Provide evidence to inform public sector housing delivery decisions at local and strategic levels.

• Involve the private sector and other stakeholders in preparing the assessment.

• Disseminate the findings widely.


What area is being covered?

Starting point - two sub regional Housing markets. • Bournemouth/Poole (covers six LAs)

(Pilot study area.)• Dorchester/Weymouth (covers 2 LAs)

Influence of Yeovil + New Forest District and wider SE region also recognised.


How is it being tackled?

• Partnership - 8 Dorset LAs + 2 neighbours, HBF, RSLs, EAs etc. Meets approx every 8 weeks.

• Project Team - 6 key Housing, Planning + R/I officers + GOSW/SWRA. Meets approx every 3 weeks. Email contact.

• Aim to do as much research work in-house as possible.

• Need to update Housing Needs info. so new County-wide survey commissioned.


Where are we in the process?

Dorset-wide Survey of Housing Need and Demand commissioned – questionnaires out in New Year.

Research work underway – • Review of existing strategies/policies• Definition of sub- markets within each HMA• Survey of estate agents (August - stage 1)• Analysis of the current housing / demographic /

economic structure. • Projection of future employment needs.


Dorset Housing Market Assessment

What we know so far!


Housing market assessment areas

• DTZ Pieda• 2001 Census – levels of self containment• School Catchments• Shopping Catchments• Transport Networks• Hospital Catchments



• 2001 Census – levels of self containment– 70% of all migrants moved within the area– Link to travel to work areas– Analysis found this threshold was too high

% moved within the area

0.0 10.0 20.0 30.0 40.0 50.0 60.0 70.0

Bournemouth & Poole

B'mouth, Poole & Xchurch

B'mouth, Poole, Xchurch & East D

B'mouth, Poole, Xchurch, East D & Pur

B'mouth, Poole, Xchurch, East D, Pur & North D

B'mouth, Poole, Xchurch, East D, Pur & New Forest

West Dorset & Wey&Portland



• School catchments– Influential at a very local level– Secondary school catchments focus on the

market towns in rural areas

• Shopping catchments– Focussed on market towns

• Smaller than the sub-regional market areas


Population & household composition

• Total Population

• Bournemouth & Poole is the largest HMA in terms of population. 350,000 in the core area and 150,000 in the periphery.

• The Dorchester & Weymouth HMA has a total population of 140,000. Of these 56,000 are in the Weymouth core and 16,000 in Dorchester core.

• Over 50,000 of Dorset’s residents fall within the periphery of Yeovil HMA, in North West Dorset.


Population & household composition• Age Structure

• Overall Dorset has a large proportion of older people.• In general the core areas’ of all the HMA’s in Dorset

have a higher proportion of younger people whilst the periphery areas have more people in all age groups over 44 years.

Age Profile by HMA areas

0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%

B&P core

B&P periph

Dorch

Wey

D&W periph

NW Dorset

0-15

16-29

30-44

45-64

65+



• Age Structure – Bournemouth & Poole HMA

• B&P core has the highest proportion of young adults. Almost 17% are aged 16-29 years, clearly influenced by the University.

• Within the core the figure varies dramatically. In Christchurch just 11% are 16-29years, in Bournemouth the figure is 20%

• The periphery has a high proportion of older people, particularly those aged 45-64 years (27%).



• Age Structure – Dorchester & Weymouth HMA

• In general the population is older than in Bournemouth & Poole HMA.

• The core areas of Dorchester and Weymouth have a higher proportion of younger people than in the periphery. 14% are aged 16-29 years in the core areas, this figure falls to 12% in the periphery.

• Dorchester & Weymouth periphery are has the highest proportion of people aged 45-64 years in the County at almost 28%.



• Age Structure – North West Dorset HMA

• In general the population is older than in the other HMA areas.

• 24% of the population are aged 65+ years. Only Christchurch within Bournemouth & Poole core has a higher proportion of older people.

• In Yeovil (which represents the core of this HMA) only 16% are aged 65+ years.

• Yeovil has a much higher proportion of younger people (17% aged 16-29) than North West Dorset, in line with the other core areas in Dorset.



• Household composition – Bournemouth & Poole HMA

• In Bournemouth & Poole HMA the core area has a higher proportion of smaller households such as single people, lone pensioners and lone parents.

• The periphery area is dominated by couples; married, co-habiting and pensioner.

• These differences are a reflection of the different age structures in the core and periphery, and the type of accommodation available.



• Household composition – Dorchester & Weymouth HMA

• Similar to B&P HMA, Dorchester and Weymouth core areas have a higher proportion of smaller households such as single people, lone pensioners and lone parents.

• The periphery area is dominated by couples; married, co-habiting and pensioner.

• Lone parent families make up 8% of households in the cores and just 6.5% in the periphery. All areas are well below the national average of 9.5%.



• Household composition – North West Dorset HMA

• North West Dorset has the highest proportion of lone pensioner households in the County. They are concentrated in the market towns of Gillingham, Shaftesbury and Sherborne.

• In the more rural areas couple households dominate.• North West Dorset has the lowest proportion of lone

parent households in the County with less than 6%.• Yeovil shows similar patterns to the core areas in

Dorset. Almost 16% of households are occupied by single people (excluding pensioners). Just above the national average.


Economy and Labour Market

• What are people doing and where do they work?• Do people live in the same place as they work?• How does the economy shape the characteristics

of the area and the prosperity of its residents?• Where is future growth expected to take place? • Have we the workforce supply to meet future

demand?


Economy and Labour MarketEconomic activity/inactivity, age 16-74 years

52% 52% 51% 49% 47%

8% 10% 10% 11% 14%

3% 3% 2% 2% 2%3% 3% 3% 2% 2%

14%15% 18% 19% 20%

20% 17% 17% 17% 16%

England & Wales South West Bmth & Poole HMA Dorch & Wey HMA North-West

Active: employed Active: self-employed Active: unemployed

Active: FT student Inactive: retired Inactive: other

Source: Census of Population 2001, ONS



• Unemployment

– Unemployment has fallen more than average.

– Most unemployment is probably frictional – a temporary period of unemployment whilst people switch between jobs.

– Low unemployment suggests a small pool of workers available to meet labour demand with potential skill mismatch problems. Significant increase in labour demand is likely to require net additions to Dorset’s labour supply as workers cannot be sourced from the unemployed and the economically inactive may be reluctant to return to work.


Economy and Labour MarketDistribution of employment

85%74%

89%78% 79%

10%

18%

7%

11% 13%

5% 7% 4%9% 8%

0.3%1.2%0.1%1.7%0.4%

BP core BP rest DW core DW rest North-West Dorset

% o

f tot

al e

mpl

oym

ent

Service sector Manufacturing Construction Other

Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2004, ONS


Economy and Labour MarketDistribution of firms and employment

49%56%

24%20%

10%12%

9%6%

8% 6%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Firms Employees in employment

BP core

BP peripheral

DW core

DW peripheral

NW

Source: Annual Business Inquiry 2004, ONS


Economy and Labour Market• Characteristics of commuters

– Bournemouth & Poole • Self-containment is highest here, especially the core with

83% of residents aged 16-74 in employment both living and working in the area

• Net loss of 6,111 commuters

• In-commuters to the core tend to be older than local workers

• In-commuters to the core are more likely to be in higher level occupations than local workers

• About one-quarter of working residents in the periphery commute to the core to work

• Figures suggest that highly skilled working residents in the periphery are likely to be commuting away from their home area to work



• Characteristics of commuters

– Dorchester & Weymouth• Self-containment is fairly high in the core with about two-

thirds of residents aged 16-74 in employment both living and working here


• About one-fifth of working residents in the periphery commute to the core to work

• More than one in ten working Weymouth residents commutes to Dorchester

• In-commuters to Dorchester are likely to be in higher level occupations



• Characteristics of commuters

– North-West Dorset• Self-containment is lower here with 63% of residents aged

16-74 in employment both living and working in North-West Dorset


• North-West Dorset working residents are most likely to commute outside the Dorset sub-region to work

• Higher skilled residents are likely to be commuting outside the area to work



Economy and Labour Market• Productivity

GVA per resident and per FTE worker

43,946

47,177

42,82441,499

11,627

15,43515,01916,521 17,631

41,047

England South East South West Bournemouth & Poole Dorset cc

£ p

er h

ead

GVA per resident GVA per FTE w orker

Source: GVA data and Annual Business Inquiry 2004, ONS



Comparison of house prices and workplace based earnings relative to England & Wales

103

129120

127

138

112 114

125

96103

119

159

85

9689

94 92

8288 90

80

93

104

127

Bourn

em

outh

Poole

Dors

et cc

Christc

hurc

h

East D

ors

et

Nort

h D

ors

et

Purb

eck

West D

ors

et

Weym

outh

&

Port

land

South

West

South

East

Gre

ate

r London

En

gla

nd

& W

ale

s=100

House prices

Workplace based earnings

Source: HM Land Registry Apr-Jun 06 All properties; ASHE 2006 ONS



Gross Domestic Household Income per head

95

100

105

110

115

120

1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004

South West Bournemouth and Poole DCC Dorset Hampshire CC South East

Index UK=100

Source: GDHI data, ONS



• Employment growth– Three out of five jobs in the Bournemouth & Poole core area– Largely service sector based– Much the same expected in the next decade

26,000 new jobs: 2006-2016

Bournemouth, 32%

Poole, 23%Christchurch, 4%

East Dorset, 8%

North Dorset, 9%

Purbeck, 4%

West Dorset, 13%

Weymouth & Portland, 7%

Source: DCC from Cambridge Econometrics LEFM05, SWRA



Replacement demand: • the need to replace workers who leave eg

through ill health or retirement.

• Around six times expansion demand alone:

• So 2006-2016:– 26,000 new jobs in Dorset sub-region– 141,800 more through replacement demand



Source: Dorset RSS population projections, upper set

Economically active projections (upper set, Dorset sub-region)

300.0

310.0

320.0

330.0

340.0

350.0

360.0

370.0

380.0

390.0

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

000s



Source: Dorset RSS population projections, upper set; DCC from Cambridge Econometrics LEFM05, SWRA

Projections of labour demand and numbers economically active

90.0

95.0

100.0

105.0

110.0

115.0

2006 2011 2016 2021 2026

2006

=100

Labour demand

Economically active


Economy and Labour MarketBournemouth & Poole: Highest qualifications of people aged 16-74 years

26%

18%

22%

9%

17%

26%

18%

22%

8%

18%

No qualif ications To level 1 To level 2 To level 3 To level 4/5

B&P Core Bournemouth & Poole Periphery



Economy and Labour MarketDorchester & Weymouth: Highest qualifications of people aged 16-74 years

26%

19%

21%

7%

18%

26%

18%

21%

7%

19%


Dorchester & Wey Core Dorch & Wey periphery




North West Dorset: Highest qualifications of people aged 16-74 years

26%

18%

22%

8%

19%




Economy and Labour Market• Migrant workers

– Number of migrants has increased greatly since A8 accession

All NI registrations by UA/CC

1510

400 620

1270

390590

1840

510

830

2750

710

1280

Bournemouth Poole DCC Dorset

Reg

istr

atio

ns

2002/03 2003/04 2004/05 2005/06

Source: National Insurance number registrations, DWP


Economy and Labour Market• Migrant workers

– Largely from Poland

73% 69% 71%

12%

6%

11%

5%

7%

7%

3%

7%

7%3%

6%

4%3%2%

0%0% 0%3%

DCC Dorset (590) Bournemouth (1,080) Poole (280)

Poland Slovak Rep Czech Rep Rep of Lithuania Rep of Latvia Hungary Rep of Estonia

Source: National Insurance number registrations 2005/06, DWP



• Filling the gap

– Across Bournemouth, Dorset and Poole:• 26,000 new jobs projected over next ten years• 19,300 more 2016-2026

– But replacement demand also to be considered:• a further 141,800 jobs to be filled over the next ten years

– Gap between labour supply and labour demand: • Fill the gap?• Narrow the gap?



• Denis Turner, Chief Economist at HSBC, pointed out recently:

“the message is simple. If the people are not allowed to come to the work, the work will go to them, with the obvious consequences for growth and living standards”.


Housing stock – House prices/rents and Housing supply

• What is the character of the existing stock?• Are second homes a real problem? • What are we building now?• What is the availability/price of property?• What factors are affecting market demand?• What is the need for affordable housing?• Are we addressing that need?• Conclusions


Character of existing stock

• Flats dominate in B/P core (32%: 19% nationally)• Detached/semis high in periphery (70%:54%)• Owner occ/mortgage high throughout area.• Low levels of public rented apart from Dorchester• Private rented generally at/above national levels• Few small dwellings (1-3 rooms) in periphery• Overcrowding below national levels apart from

B/P core.


Are second homes a real problem?

ChristchurchChristchurchChristchurchChristchurchChristchurchChristchurchChristchurchChristchurchChristchurch

VerwoodVerwoodVerwoodVerwoodVerwoodVerwoodVerwoodVerwoodVerwood

BournemouthBournemouthBournemouthBournemouthBournemouthBournemouthBournemouthBournemouthBournemouth

West MoorsWest MoorsWest MoorsWest MoorsWest MoorsWest MoorsWest MoorsWest MoorsWest Moors

FerndownFerndownFerndownFerndownFerndownFerndownFerndownFerndownFerndown

St Leonards & St IvesSt Leonards & St IvesSt Leonards & St IvesSt Leonards & St IvesSt Leonards & St IvesSt Leonards & St IvesSt Leonards & St IvesSt Leonards & St IvesSt Leonards & St Ives

Wimborne MinsterWimborne MinsterWimborne MinsterWimborne MinsterWimborne MinsterWimborne MinsterWimborne MinsterWimborne MinsterWimborne Minster

SwanageSwanageSwanageSwanageSwanageSwanageSwanageSwanageSwanage

PoolePoolePoolePoolePoolePoolePoolePoolePoole

WarehamWarehamWarehamWarehamWarehamWarehamWarehamWarehamWareham

GillinghamGillinghamGillinghamGillinghamGillinghamGillinghamGillinghamGillinghamGillingham

ShaftesburyShaftesburyShaftesburyShaftesburyShaftesburyShaftesburyShaftesburyShaftesburyShaftesbury

Blandford ForumBlandford ForumBlandford ForumBlandford ForumBlandford ForumBlandford ForumBlandford ForumBlandford ForumBlandford Forum

WoolWoolWoolWoolWoolWoolWoolWoolWool

DorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchesterDorchester

WeymouthWeymouthWeymouthWeymouthWeymouthWeymouthWeymouthWeymouthWeymouth

Fortuneswell /Fortuneswell /Fortuneswell /Fortuneswell /Fortuneswell /Fortuneswell /Fortuneswell /Fortuneswell /Fortuneswell /EastonEastonEastonEastonEastonEastonEastonEastonEaston

SherborneSherborneSherborneSherborneSherborneSherborneSherborneSherborneSherborneStalbridgeStalbridgeStalbridgeStalbridgeStalbridgeStalbridgeStalbridgeStalbridgeStalbridge

BridportBridportBridportBridportBridportBridportBridportBridportBridportLyme RegisLyme RegisLyme RegisLyme RegisLyme RegisLyme RegisLyme RegisLyme RegisLyme Regis

BeaminsterBeaminsterBeaminsterBeaminsterBeaminsterBeaminsterBeaminsterBeaminsterBeaminster

% 2nd / holiday homes

13.6 to 16.8 (6)10.2 to 13.6 (2)6.8 to 10.2 (7)3.4 to 6.8 (23)0 to 3.4 (121)

© Crown copyright. All rights reserved.© Crown copyright. All rights reserved.© Crown copyright. All rights reserved.© Crown copyright. All rights reserved.© Crown copyright. All rights reserved.© Crown copyright. All rights reserved.© Crown copyright. All rights reserved.© Crown copyright. All rights reserved.© Crown copyright. All rights reserved.Dorset County Council, LA100019790. 2006Dorset County Council, LA100019790. 2006Dorset County Council, LA100019790. 2006Dorset County Council, LA100019790. 2006Dorset County Council, LA100019790. 2006Dorset County Council, LA100019790. 2006Dorset County Council, LA100019790. 2006Dorset County Council, LA100019790. 2006Dorset County Council, LA100019790. 2006

Occupancy: Percentage 2nd / holiday homes

Second homes declined between 1991 and 2001. Need to be sure of definition.

Secondhomes over6% of D/WPeriphery,Elsewherelimited to 2%or less;nationally0.7%


What are we building now?

1996 – 2006 34,480 new dwellings48% houses47% flats5% bungalows

Actual Completions - 1996 - 2006

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

Bournemouth &Poole core

Bournemouth &Poole periphery

Dorchester &Weymouthperiphery

Dorchester core Weymouth core Yeovil periphery

Flats Bungalows Houses

Bournemouth NET Completions 2001- 6

712

802

971 1,

014

979

24 32 29 21 2488 88

164

61

-43

-200

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

01/02 02/03 03/04 04/05 05/06

Flats Bungalows Houses*


What are we building now?

• B/P core 68% all flats = 2 bed.

• 2 bed flats in B/P core = 2.5 x all 2 bed flats.

Size - Flats

1,14

2

149

123

52 101

44

3,42

3

439

165

153

503

10030

6

32 7 26 43 6

137

2 1 0 1 0

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Bournemouth& Poole core

Bournemouth& Poole

periphery


Dorchestercore

Weymouthcore

Yeovilperiphery

1bed

2bed

3bed

4+bed

Size - Houses/Bungalows22 26 7 2 3

28

416

262

130

39

70

257

603

710

552

146

205

619

357

582

396

151

109

500

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

Bournemouth& Poole core

Bournemouth& Poole

periphery


Dorchestercore

Weymouthcore

Yeovilperiphery

1bed

2bed

3bed

4+bed

Yeovil periphery72% all dev = 3 and 4 bed houses. More even mix of property in D/W Core.


What is the availability/price of property?

Average house prices April – June 2006





















Average Price: Detached

750,000 to 1,250,000500,000 to 750,000350,000 to 500,000250,000 to 350,000150,000 to 250,000

1 to 150,000No Data


Average House Prices by Postcode SectorBased on all Sales April-J une 2006: DETACHEDLand Registry





















Average Price Terraced

750,000 to 1,250,000500,000 to 750,000350,000 to 500,000250,000 to 350,000150,000 to 250,000

1 to 150,000No data


Average House Prices by Postcode SectorBased on all Sales April-J une 2006: TERRACEDLand Registry





















Average Price: Flats & Maisonettes

750,000 to 1,250,000500,000 to 750,000350,000 to 500,000250,000 to 350,000150,000 to 250,000

1 to 150,000No data


Average House Prices by Postcode SectorBased on all Sales April-June 2006: FLATSLand Registry



Range of house prices by HMA

Range of House Prices by HMA

0 200000 400000 600000 800000 1000000 1200000

detached

semi-det

terraced

Dorchester & Weymouth flats

detached

semi-det

terraced

North West (Yeovil periphery) flats

detached

semi-det

terraced

Bournemouth & Poole flats

price (£)



Average rental

prices July 2006

Price Range of Monthly rental by accommodation size and HMA

0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500 3000 3500 4000

B&P

D&W

NW

£ per month


What factors are affecting market demand?

Views of Estate Agents August 2006

216 forms sent out – 20 returned (9.34%). Good geographic and market spread.Market Conditions 80% indicated some or most locations in their area were “hotspots”

50% indicated a significant feeling that their market was over supplied with flats – variety of locations.

63% considered that sales of buy to let had decreased over the last 3 years. Where increases noted – mainly coastal resorts.

63% considered sales to FTBs had decreased sharply over last 3 years, further 26% neutral response.


What factors are affecting market demand?

Views of Estate Agents August 2006

Major factors affecting demand

85% Planning regulations79% lack of development land73% lack of small (<2 bed) homes70% people moving in from London / SE65% people moving in from other areas63% income levels in area55% lack of large homes (4+ beds)53% under supply of affordable housing


What is the need for affordable housing?

Previous housing need surveys• 5710 affordable dwellings needed per annum.

Housing Registers 2001-05• Increase of 140% in B/P core, 120% in WDand WPBC• Little change in B/P periphery

Homeless households• Decreases of 50% in B/P core, 26% in WD and WPBC• Little change in B/P periphery


Are we addressing that need?Affordable/ Private Housing completions 1996 - 2006

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Bournemouth &Poole core

Bournemouth &Poole periphery


Dorchester core Weymouth core Yeovil periphery Total

Affordable Private

1996 – 2006 B/P core only 10.2% affordableWeymouth core 17.1% affordable Periphery areas 13.7 – 15.7%


Conclusions

• Similarities as well as differences between HMAs• Some contradictions • Some startling facts• Need for new Survey of Housing Need and Demand to

provide up to date information at ward level.• Need to investigate needs of particular groups in more

detail • Need for stakeholder input to steer next stage.

Research & Information

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