Research Frontiers in Space Weather, Part I

Research Frontiers In Space Weather

Dr. Scott W. McIntosh Director, High Altitude Observatory Associate Director, National Center for Atmospheric Research

We Live In The Atmosphere Of Our Star


Courtesy NASA/VisLab

Space Weather Impacts on Society


The US research community is meeting a new National Space Weather strategy that will require parallel advances in observational and numerical science to improve forecast skill for critical systems.

Power Grid Vulnerability Raw Natural Beauty Space Infrastructure Vulnerability Financial System Vulnerability

Critical Needs


The Storm Track of Hurricane Ike

Improvements in Space Weather forecasting REQUIRE the improved estimates of the environment between Sun and Earth.

Before

After

Improvements in Key Areas To Improve The Space Weather Enterprise


Ø  Observations of the Sun’s complete magnetic atmosphere.

Ø  Observations of interplanetary space to track the disturbance.

Ø  Observations of the magnetosphere/ionosphere Interface.

Ø  End-to-end modeling capability to interpret the suite of observations.

Ø  Capability to feed next-generation models with these new observations.

Ø  Models to increase forecast capability to weeks and beyond…. Hunting for extreme event origins.

Solar Observation


Ø  CoSMO is a suite of three instruments.

Ø  CoSMO is capable of measuring the critical magneto-thermal environment of the inner solar system.

Terrestrial Impact


The ionosphere is the nexus of space and weather in the Earth’s upper atmosphere. Next generation observations and models of the Earth’s upper atmosphere are required to study the balance of “bottom-up” and “top-down” influence on this region housing critical infrastructure.

Data Assimilation


Space weather forecast skill will be increased by ut i l i z ing observat ions and mode ls t o g e t h e r t h r o u g h d a t a a s s i m i l a t i o n t e c h n i q u e s c o m m o n l y e x p l o i t e d i n terrestrial meteorology.

Take Home Message & Hand Off


Ø  Space weather is a full-time concern.

Ø  Benign and extreme flavors of space weather can impact society and critical infrastructure at different levels.

Ø  There could be a hefty price to pay for negligence in forecasting episodes of extreme space weather.

Ø  Improved observations and modeling capabilities working hand-in-hand are required to improve forecast skill.

Ø  NCAR is working with the university community to develop key pieces of infrastructure at the critical boundaries of the Sun-Earth Connection.

Research Frontiers in Space Weather, II

Dr. Thomas H. Zurbuchen Professor, University of Michigan

Nature of Space Weather in Research Community


Space Weather is to Space Researchers what Cancer is to Biological Scien5sts: A way to demonstrate the value and impact of one’s work!

Role of University Community


Ø  Fundamental research on physical processes through theoretical investigations, data analysis, and models

Ø  Knowledge and understanding of instrument designs of instrument used today and needed in the future

Ø  Applied research by building large-scale models, analysis of predictions and improved prediction methodologies

Ø  Educate talent equipped with both skillsets

Space Weather Facts


Ø  Small CMEs today affect operations of power grid at $10B/yr in USA and Europe alone

Ø  A Carrington-like event is estimated to cause$2 trillion in damage Ø  The current estimate of occurrence of such an event is 12% in 10

years

Key question


Ø  How do we get from forecasts of 48 minutes to forecasts of 48 hours?

Ø  Modeling challenge, observational challenge, education challenge

?

Modeling Challenge: University of Michigan Space Weather Modeling Framework


Ø  Multi-physics, multi-scale system only addressed by SWMF.

SWMF Control & Infrastructure Eruption

Generator

Solar Corona

Inner Heliosphere

Global Magnetosphere

Polar Wind

Inner Magnetosphere

Ionospheric Electrodynamics

Thermosphere & Ionosphere

Solar Energetic Particles

Radiation

Belts

3D Outer Heliosphere

Couplers

Flare/CME Observations

Upstream Monitors

F10.7 Flux Gravity Waves

Magneto-grams, rotation

tomography

Particle in Cell

Particle Tracker

Convection Zone

NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center Ran External Evaluation


Ø  The University of Michigan’s SWMF was ranked #1 in prediction skill among all available models

Ø  Result: SWMF runs in predictive mode now 24/7 on NOAA’s super-computers

March 2015 St Patrick’s Day Storm


New Architectures: Space Weather Distributed Sensor Network


Ø  Status quo: looking at Sun from Earth, L1, some observations in magnetosphere

Ø  Future architectures: multi-point measurements of significantly cheaper spacecraft operated as system

Ø  Discussed and recommended in new report by National Academies

!

New Architectures: Severe Storm Example


Ø  Eight nano-spacecraft provide comparable measurements at ~10% of cost, and with repeat times 5-10 times quicker than traditional technologies

!

!Cyclone Global Naviga1on Satellite System (CYGNSS)

CubeSats as Development Platform


Current Emerging Developing Demonstrated Within 2 years Expected in 5 years 0.1 degrees 0.02 degrees 0.0003 degrees

(arc-‐minute) (arc-‐second)

AAtude Control

Current Emerging Developing Demonstrated Within 2 years Expected in 5 years N/A Inert gas, 3D printed Micro Electrospray

50 m/s 300 m/s

Propulsion

Current Emerging Developing Demonstrated Within 2 years Expected in 5 years 10 krad Si total dose Selec1ve hardened Radia1on hardened bus 12 months LEO 12 months interplanetary Mul1-‐year interplanetary

Radia5on Tolerance

Blue Canyon XACT aUtude control system

Astrium LEON microprocessor

JPL Indium MEP thruster

Educational and Training Challenge


Ø  Education, mobilize workforce to Ø  Develop new, more compact sensors and

systems Ø  Analyze data with fundamental and

applied problems Ø  Develop and run models for research

and forecasting

!

Space Weather Predic5on Next Steps: An industry and military perspec5ve

GeoOptics, Inc. Pasadena, CA June 14, 2016

Dr. Conrad C. Lautenbacher, Jr. CEO Vice Admiral, ret. USN

Slide Title National Space Weather Strategy*

“The Nation must continue to leverage existing public and private network of expertise and capabilities and pursue targeted enhancements to improve the ability to manage risks associated with space weather.”

“The Strategy and Action Plan build on recent efforts to reduce risks associated with natural hazards and reduce risks associated with natural hazards and improve resilience of essential facilities and systems, aiming to foster a collaborative environment in which government, industry, and the American people can better understand and prepare for the effects of space weather.” .

Introduction

*https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf

Industry & Military Perspective

National Space Weather Strategy*

1.  Establish Benchmarks for Space Weather Events

2.  Enhance Response and Recovery Capabili1es

3.  Improve Protec1on and Mi1ga1on Efforts Public Good & Government Control

4.  Improve Assessment, Modeling, and Predic1on of Impacts on Cri1cal Infrastructure

5.  Improve Space Weather Services through Advancing Understanding and Forecas1ng

6.  Increase Interna1onal Coopera1on

Strategic Goals

*https://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/microsites/ostp/final_nationalspaceweatherstrategy_20151028.pdf


American Commercial Space Weather Association

•  Algorithm development •  Automatic event detections (flares, solar

energetic particles, geoeffective CMEs) •  Calibration/validation •  Data assimilation • GPS modeling and services •  HF propagation •  Numerical modeling and simulation

•  Sun, interplanetary medium •  magnetosphere, ionosphere •  thermosphere, lower atmosphere

• Operational implementations / Research to Operations (R2O)

•  Risk and threat analyses for infrastructure and space resources

•  Satellite data analysis & data product

development •  Sensor hardware & modeling •  Software tools

•  Application development (web-based and smart phone)

•  Data hosting / data product delivery •  Data / model visualization

•  Space Situational Awareness (SSA) •  Spacecraft anomaly prediction and

assessment •  Space weather data product and

service distribution •  Space weather now-casting/forecasting

Capabilities*

*http://www.acswa.us/capabilities.html


Dilemma

?

Federal Budget

National needs

To Meet


Partnership

Federal Budget

National needs

Gov’t Gov’t Space Weax

Academia Space Weax

Commercial Space Weax

Academia

Commercial

To Meet

Filled by:

Coordinated National Public Private Effort

Essential


U.S. Government Space Policy*

•  Purchase commercial space services to the maximum extent •  Modify commercial space services when cost effec1ve & 1mely •  Explore nontradi1onal arrangements for acquiring commercial space services •  Develop USG space systems only when no US commercial service available •  Refrain from ac5vi5es that compete with US commercial space ac5vi5es

•  Pursue opportuni5es for transferring rou5ne space func5ons to the commercial space sector

•  Cul1vate entrepreneurship in the commercial space sector through incen1ves

•  Ensure USG space technology available for commercial use

To promote a robust domestic commercial space industry, agencies shall:

*http://www.whitehouse.gov/sites/default/files/national_space_policy_6-28-10.pdf


Space Weather Industry

Products and Services

Upstream

Mid-Stream

Downstream

•  Research •  Observations •  Instrumentation •  Data

•  Data Processing •  Computation •  Algorithms •  Models

•  Forecasts •  Warnings •  Services •  Emergency Mgt

Value Chain

www.acswa.us


Military Perspective •  Solar Storms will affect military opera1ons and readiness

–  White House emergency ac1on will be ini1ated based on current plans –  Assets may have to be moved to cover areas without power or communica1on –  Reac1ons are 1me sensi1ve –  Military forces rou1nely train for defense against nuclear warfare scenarios

•  Nuclear Elector-‐magne1c Pulse (EMP) or High al1tude EMP (HEMP) –  Caused by nuclear bomb detona1on –  Effects vary based of al1tude and bomb size –  Effects (E3) similar to a geomagne1c storm caused by a solar flare –  Major effects include communica1ons disrup1ons –  Detona1on in outer space could affect long term viability of mul1ple satellites

•  2013, House considered "Secure High-‐voltage Infrastructure for Electricity from Lethal Damage Act" (surge protec1on ~300 large transformers.)

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Research Frontiers in Space Weather, Part I

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