Research Department Morning Research Focus

Research Focus

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Research Department

Morning Research Focus

4 January 2017

Table of Contents 目录

Industry and Company Focus 行业和公司焦点

Gaming Sector: December GGR Increased 8.0% YoY, 5th Consecutive Month with YoY Gain

博彩行业：12 月份澳门博彩总收入同比增长 8.8%，好于市场的 5.5%预期

Hengdeli (03389 HK): Very Substantial Disposal

亨得利 (03389 HK)：非常重大出售事项

Evergrande (03333 HK) Achieved Valuation Adjustment Mechanism with Investors

中国恒大(03333 HK)：与投资者达成对赌协议

China Aoyuan (03883 HK): Acquisition of 100% interests of a Project Land in Zhejiang

中国奥园(03883 HK): 收购位于浙江项目土地的 100%权益

Latest Reports 最新报告摘要

Company Name

公司名称

Code

代码

Title

标题

TP

目标价

Chg

变动

Rating

评级

Chg

变动

EPS Est.

Change?

盈利预测

是否改变

Tingyi 00322 HK See the First Light but Challenge still ahead

HK$9.20 ↑ Neutral -- Y

康师傅 00322 HK 初见曙光但挑战依旧 HK$9.20 ↑ 中性 -- 是

Banking Sector Sector Report: Earnings Growth Expected to Rebound in 2017, Maintain “Outperform”

-- Outperform -- N

银行业行业报告： 2017 年盈利增速预计将

反弹，维持“跑赢大市”评级 -- 跑赢大市 -- 否

Bank of Communications

03328 HK Acquisition of BBM Bank Completed, Maintain “Accumulate”

HK$6.60 ↑ Accumulate -- Y

交通银行 03328 HK 收购 BBM 银行完成，维持“收集”

评级 HK$6.60 ↑ 收集 -- 是

ICBC 01398 HK 1-3Q16 Financial Results Basically in Line, Maintain “Accumulate”


工商银行 01398 HK 2016 年前三季度业绩基本符合预

期，维持“收集”评级 HK$5.40 ↑ 收集 -- 是

China Construction Bank

00939 HK NPL Ratio Declined, Maintain “Accumulate”


Research Focus


建设银行 00939 HK 不良贷款率下滑，维持“收集”评级 HK$6.75 ↑ 收集 -- 是

China Agricultural Bank

01288 HK Establish Institution to Conduct Debt-to-Equity Swaps, Maintain “Accumulate”


农业银行 01288 HK 成立债转股机构，维持“收集”评级 HK$3.76 ↑ 收集 -- 是

Bank of China 03988 HK One-off Gains Contributed to 1H16 Earnings Growth, Maintain “Accumulate”


中国银行 03988 HK 一次性收益贡献上半年盈利增速，维

持“收集”评级 HK$4.04 ↑ 收集 -- 是

China Merchants Bank

03968 HK Better Earnings Growth Prospects, Upgrade to “Buy”

HK$23.20 ↑ Buy ↑ Y

招商银行 03968 HK 预期盈利增速较好，上调至“买入”

评级 HK$23.20 ↑ 买入 ↑ 是

China Minsheng Bank

01988 HK Expected Business Spinoff, Maintain “Accumulate”


民生银行 01988 HK 存在业务分拆预期，维持“收集”评

级 HK$10.00 ↑ 收集 -- 是

China CITIC Bank

00998 HK Big Shareholder Continuously Increases Shareholding, Maintain “Accumulate”


中信银行 00998 HK 大股东持续增持，维持“收集”评级 HK$5.88 ↑ 收集 -- 是

Huishang Bank 03698 HK Considering Its Lower Daily Stock Turnover, Downgrade to “Accumulate”

HK$4. 72 ↑ Accumulate ↓ Y

徽商银行 03698 HK 考虑其较低的日成交额，下调至“收

集”评级 HK$4. 72 ↑ 收集 ↓ 是

Appendices：Chinese Version of the Industry and Company Focus, Latest Reports.

后附：行业和公司焦点，最新报告摘要中文版。

HSI Performance HSCEI Performance

17,000

19,000

21,000

23,000

25,000

27,000

29,000

Dec/15 Mar/16 Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Dec/15 Mar/16 Jun/16 Sep/16 Dec/16

Source: Bloomberg Source: Bloomberg

Research Focus


Industry and Company Focus

Gaming Sector: December GGR Increased 8.0% YoY, 5th Consecutive Month with YoY Gain

Analyst: Noah Hudson

What happened: Macau’s December Gross Gaming Revenue (“GGR”) was MOP19,815 million, up

8.0% YoY, less than median estimate of 9% growth, according to 8 analysts surveyed by Bloomberg

(range from +5% to +13%). December GGR increased 5.5% MoM, less than the average 6.9% MoM

increase in December GGR seen over the previous 5 years. Macau's 2016 full year GGR was

MOP223.211 million, down 3.3% YoY.

Comments and Views: December was the fifth consecutive month with a YoY increase in GGR.

Although 2016 full year GGR decreased by 3.3%, August through December GGR increased by 7.8%

YoY, indicating a clear turnaround in the sector. We expect the upward GGR growth trend to continue in

2017.

Investment suggestion: We recommend to "Buy" Melco Crown (MPEL US) and Wynn Macau (01128

HK) with target prices of US$22.00 and HK$15.20, respectively. We also recommend to "Accumulate"

MGM China (02282 HK) with target price of HK$17.60. Melco Crown's fundamentals have been

improving and current valuation is low. Wynn Palace's slow start has lowered expectations which gives

Wynn Palace surprise upside potential and has created a "Buy" opportunity for the Wynn Macau's

shares, in our view. We like MGM China because we think that the absence of other casino openings

will give MGM Cotai a distinct advantage as it will be the longest duration newest casino compared to all

other competitor casinos opened in 2015 and 2016.

Hengdeli (03389 HK): Very Substantial Disposal

Analyst: Andrew Song

What happened: Hengdeli announced to sell its Xinyu Sale Shares and Harvest Max Sale Shares to its

Chairman Mr. Zhang. The total consideration is estimated to be approximately RMB 3.5 billion based on

the unaudited net asset value of the disposal asset attributable to the shareholders of the Company of

approximately RMB5.1 billion as at 30 June 2016 and the minimum dividend payout of RMB1.6 billion.

the Board intends to declare the special dividend of not less than HK$0.20 per share after the

completion of the disposal.

Comments and Views: The Xinyu Group is principally engaged in retail and wholesale of watch brand

in the PRC and provision of after-sale service. The Harvest Max Group principally engaged in the retail

of jewellery, low-to-mid-end watch brands and general merchandises in Hong Kong and Taiwan. After

the disposal only the retail sale of mid to top end watch and manufacturing of watch accessories

businesses will remain in the Company. The Xinyu Group recorded a PAT of RMB 300 million and the

Harvest Max Group recorded a loss after tax of RMB 42 million in 2015. The consideration is equivalent

to 13.1x 2015 PER, which is lower than the valuation of its peer Chow Tai Fook (01929 HK) which is

trading at 20.0x FY17 PER. However, considering the Company’s 0.81x 2016 PBR, we believe the

consideration is fair.

Investment suggestion: The Company’s last price is HK$1.12 and has exceeded our target price.

Since the disposal is expected to reduce approximately 80% of the Company’s revenue and the

visibility will be low in the future, we are likely to lower our investment rating.

Research Focus


Evergrande (03333 HK) Achieved Valuation Adjustment Mechanism with Investors

Analyst: Van Liu

What happened: Evergrande (“the Company”) announces a major transaction on 30 Dec. 2016.

Pursuant to this major transaction, investors will subscribe for new capital in Hengda Real Estate

(wholly-owned subsidiaries of the Company and principally engaged in property development) for an

aggregate amount of RMB30 billion, in return of an aggregate of approximately 13.16% of the enlarged

equity interest of Hengda Real Estate. Kailong Real Estate (wholly-owned subsidiaries of the Company）

and Hengda Real Estate have undertaken to the investors that the net profit of Hengda Real Estate for

2017, 2018 and 2019 shall not be less than RMB24.3 bn, RMB30.8 bn and RMB33.7 bn, respectively.

Main investors, dividend payment prior to the entering into of the reorganization agreement and

repurchase obligation or compensation are as follow, respectively:

Investors Investment Amounts (RMB bn) Interest

(CITIC Juheng (Shenzhen) Investment Holdings LLP 5.0 2.19%

Guangtian Investment Co., Ltd. 5.0 2.19%

Shenzhen Huajian Holdings Co., Ltd. 5.0 2.19%

Shenzhen Zhongrong Dingxing Investment LLP 3.0 1.32%

Shandong Highway Companies 3.0 1.32%

Suzhou Industrial Park Ruican Investment LLP 3.0 1.32%

Shenzhen Meitou Hi-tech Venture Capital Investment Co., Ltd. 3.0 1.32%

Guangdong Weimei Mingzhu Investment Co., Ltd. 3.0 1.32%

Source: The Company, Guotai Junan International.

Conditions Results

If the net profit of Hengda Real Estate for a financial year is no less than the performance undertaking amount

at least 60% of its net profit to its shareholders

If the net profit of Hengda Real Estate for a financial year is less than the performance undertaking amount

The proportional dividend payable percentage=Percentage of equity interest held by the Investors/(actual net profit of Hengda Real Estate for that financial year/the Performance Undertaking Amount for that year)


Conditions 1 repurchase the equity interest held by the relevant Investor at its original investment cost

Conditions 2

Percentage of equity in Hengda Real Estate to be transferred by Kailong Real Estate to the relevant investor as compensation=Percentage interest in Hengda Real Estate held by the relevant Investor on the signing of the compensation agreement (excluding any additional interest acquired by the relevant Investor after the date of the relevant Investment Agreement)*50%


Comments and Views: The capital increase will serve to raise fund as well as to allow the Company to

maintain the public float of Shenzhen Real Estate upon completion of the proposed reorganization. We

expect the Company’s contracted sales and net profit to maintain fast growth. The estimated market

value of Hengda Real Estate is RMB228 bn. But the market value of Evergrande was only HK$66 bn.

Therefore, we think the Company's to be undervalued. However, this valuation adjustment mechanism

will increase the Company’s operation and financial pressures especially under the background of

possible cooling down in the property market after policy tightening.

Investment suggestion: Overall, the Company’s current investment rating is “Accumulate” and the

target price is HK$5.17, which implies a 54% discount to its 2017E NAV and also implies 7.4x

underlying 2017 PER and 1.0x 2017 PBR.

Research Focus


China Aoyuan (03883 HK): Acquisition of 100% interests of a Project Land in Zhejiang

Analyst: Van Liu

What happened: China Aoyuan (“the Company”) has announced an acquisition on 30 Dec. 2016. The

Company has agreed to acquire the entire equity interest in the Target Company at the consideration of

RMB710 mn in cash. The Target Company develops complex projects in the intersection of Huangshan

Road West, Xiaogang Street and Jijing Road South, Beilun Xiaogang, Ningbo, Zhejiang Province,, with a

maximum plot ratio-based GFA of approximately 119,470 sq.m. In 2016, the Company's contracted

sales recorded RMB25,600 mn, up 69% YoY.

Comments and Views: As at 31 Jul. 2016, the unaudited net assets of the Target Company amounted

to approximately RMB516 mn. We estimate the average land cost of this acquisition to be around

RMB5,943 per sq.m. Considering the current ASP in Ningbo (amounting to around RMB13,700 per

sq.m.), we believe that the consideration of this acquisition is not demanding.

Investment suggestion: The Company's land reserves are mainly in tier-1 / tier-2 / international cities.

The debt structure is improving, decreasing its risk exposure to RMB depreciation and financial costs.

The Company's fundamentals are gradually improving. The Company’s current investment rating is

“Accumulate” and the target price is HK$1.98, which implies a 61% discount to its 2017E NAV and also

implies 3.4x underlying 2017 PER and 0.5x 2017 PBR.

Latest Reports

Tingyi (00322 HK): See the First Light but Challenge still ahead

Rating: Neutral 6-18m TP: HK$9.20

Analyst: Barney Wu Report Date: 2016-12-30

Summary

Tingyi’s results in 3Q16 were better than expectations. Tingyi's revenue decreased by 1.5% and 9.4% YoY,

respectively, in 3Q16 and 1-3Q16. In 3Q16, the improvement of revenue growth was mainly due to the rebound in

beverage revenue, which rose by 3.5% YoY to USD1,696 million. In 3Q16, Tingyi's gross margin rose by 0.1 ppt

YoY and 1.6 ppt QoQ driven by the improvement of beverage gross margin. Shareholders' profit decreased 1.0%

YoY to USD143 million in 3Q16 with unchanged net margin.

Tingyi's market share fell in instant noodles but climbed in beverages. The Company enhanced its position in

mid-end instant noodles market, as mid-end packet products increased 20.3% YoY in 3Q16. Price adjustment

helped Tingyi regain market share in bottled water market. Revenue of tea products grew the fastest YoY in

beverage business. The Company's profitability in the future may be better than market expectation. We revise up

Tingyi’s EPS forecast for 2016-2018 by 8.0%, 1.9% and 0.7%, respectively.

Although we expect the Company will maintain the momentum of U-shaped recovery, we are not too optimistic

toward the recovery rate as China's economic growth is expected to continue slowing down in 2017, which still could

be a tough year for the whole food & beverage sector. Therefore, we maintain the Company’s rating at “Neutral”

but revise up TP to HK$9.20. The new TP represents 31.5x 2016 PER, 21.5x 2017 PER and 19.5x 2018 PER.

Research Focus


Sector Report: Banking Sector: Earnings Growth Expected to Rebound in 2017, Maintain “Outperform”

Rating: Outperform 6-18m TP: n.a.

Analyst: Richard Cao Report Date: 2016-12-30

Summary

We expect that the Chinese banking sector's total assets will grow by around 12.5% YoY in 2017. In 2017, the

Chinese banking sector's NIM is expected to continue to contract YoY due to the declining asset returns pressure

partially arising from local debt replacements. However, the contracting magnitude of NIM, compared to that of 2016,

would be narrowed significantly. NIM of Chinese banking sector for 2017 is expected to be around 2.13%. In 2017,

we expect the proportion of non-interest income in total operating income of the Chinese banking sector to slightly

go upwards to around 25.3%. Impairment losses are projected to remain as one of the main factors to impact the

banking sector's net profit growth. All things considered, we expect the Chinese banking sector’s YoY growth of

net profit in 2016, 2017 and 2018 to be 2.5%, 5.2% and 7.5%, respectively.

As at 30 December 2016, the 2016/2017 consensus weighted average PER and PBR of mainland listed banks

under our coverage are 5.7x/5.6x and 0.8x/0.7x, respectively. The current valuations are still low. In 2017, we expect

the following factors to support the banks' valuations: 1) We expect the Chinese economy to stabilize, economic

structure to be optimized further, and the liquidity to remain slightly relaxed. 2) We project Chinese banking sector's

net profit growth to rebound from the current trough. 3) we expect asset quality deterioration pressure to be mitigated

further. Therefore, we still maintain “Outperform” rating for the Chinese banking sector in 2017.

Bank of Communications (03328 HK): Acquisition of BBM Bank Completed, Maintain “Accumulate”

Rating: Accumulate 6-18m TP: HK$6.60


Summary

The Company recorded 1-3Q16 net profit attributable to shareholders of RMB 52.6 bn, up 1.0% YoY. In

1-3Q16, the Company’s net interest income and net fee income were RMB 100.8 bn and RMB 28.9 bn, down 6.7%

YoY and up 5.4% YoY, respectively. NIM for 1-3Q16 declined by 33 bps YoY to 1.91%. In 1-3Q16, impairment

losses achieved RMB 21.6 bn, up 3.4% YoY. As of the end of 3Q16, the Company’s NPL ratio was 1.53%, up 0.02

pts YTD. Its NPL coverage ratio declined by 5.26 pts YTD to 150.31%.

The Company completed the acquisition of approximately 80% of the total outstanding shares of Brazil BBM

Bank. The acquisition is its first overseas acquisition and its first-step expansion into Latin America, which will help it

to expand its businesses in the Brazilian market.

We revise up the EPS for FY16/FY17/FY18 by 0.8%/3.1%/6.7%, respectively. We project the Company’s EPS for

FY16/FY17/FY18 to be RMB 0.904, RMB 0.940 and RMB 1.000, up 0.9% YoY, 4.0% YoY and 6.3% YoY,

respectively. We think the current valuation is still relatively low. We revise up our TP for the Company from

HK$ 5.62 to HK$ 6.60, equivalent to 6.5x FY16 PER, 6.2x FY17 PER, 0.7x FY16 PBR and 0.7x FY17 PBR. We

maintain “Accumulate” rating for the Company.

Research Focus


ICBC (01398 HK): 1-3Q16 Financial Results Basically in Line, Maintain “Accumulate”



Summary


1-3Q16, the Company’s net interest income and net fee income were RMB 351.4 bn and RMB 113.7 bn, down 7.5%

YoY and up 2.3% YoY, respectively. In 1-3Q16, impairment losses achieved RMB 63.9 bn, up 3.8% YoY. As of the

end of 3Q16, the Company’s NPL ratio was 1.62%, up 0.12 pts YTD. The NPL coverage ratio declined 20.20 pts

YTD to 136.14%.

The Company announced to establish ICBC Asset Management Corporation with a total capital contribution

of RMB12.0 bn to specialize in debt-to-equity swap business. Through conducting debt-to-equity swap

business, it is expected to make its NPL ratio decline and generate reasonable investment returns.





maintain “Accumulate” rating for the Company unchanged.

China Construction Bank (00939 HK): NPL Ratio Declined, Maintain “Accumulate”



Summary


1-3Q16, net interest income and net fee income achieved RMB 315.8 bn and RMB 92.3 bn, down 7.3% YoY or up

4.1% YoY, respectively. Impacted by the previous cut of interest rates and interest rate liberalization, NIM in 1-3Q16

contracted 38 bps YoY to 2.26%. The asset quality beat expectation slightly. As of the end of 3Q16, the balance of

NPLs decreased slightly 1.2% QoQ to RMB 179.7 bn. As the QoQ decrease of NPLs, the Company’s NPL ratio

declined by 0.07 pts QoQ or 0.02 pts YTD to 1.56%, NPL coverage ratio declined 2.85 pts QoQ or 2.21 pts YTD to

148.78%. In 1-3Q16, the impairment losses achieved RMB 63.7 bn, down 0.7% YoY.





maintain “Accumulate” rating for the Company.

Research Focus


China Agricultural Bank (01288 HK): Establish Institution to Conduct Debt-to-Equity Swaps, Maintain “Accumulate”



Summary


1-3Q16, the Company's net interest income was RMB 298.1 bn, down 9.3% YoY. In 1-3Q16, driven by the increase

of agency business and electronic banking business, the Company's net fee income increased 9.8% YoY to RMB

73.1 bn. In 1-3Q16, the impairment losses increased 5.5% YoY to RMB 60.5 bn. As of the end of 3Q16, the

Company’s NPL ratio was 2.39%, flat YTD. NPL coverage ratio declined 16.70 pts YTD to 177.72%.

ABC has become the first to establish an institution to join the debt-to-equity swaps. On 22 November 2016,

ABC announced to establish ABC Asset Management Corporation with a total capital contribution of RMB10.0 bn to

specialize in debt-to-equity swap business.

We revise up the EPS estimates for FY16/FY17/FY18 by 0.5%/2.8%/5.5%, respectively. We project the Company’s

EPS for FY16/FY17/FY18 to be RMB 0.553, RMB 0.577 and RMB 0.612, up 0.7% YoY, 4.3% YoY and 6.1% YoY,

respectively. We revise up our TP for the Company from HK$ 3.30 to HK$ 3.76, equivalent to 6.1x FY16 PER, 5.8x

FY17 PER, 0.8x FY16 PBR and 0.7x FY17 PBR. We maintain “Accumulate” rating for the Company.

Bank of China (03988 HK): One-off Gains Contributed to 1H16 Earnings Growth, Maintain “Accumulate”



Summary

1-3Q16 YoY net profit growth of 2.5% was mainly contributed by the one-off gains arising from subsidiary

BOCHK's sale of NCB in 1H16. In 1-3Q16, the Company’s net interest income achieved RMB 229.8 bn, down 6.7%

YoY. NIM for 1-3Q16 contracted 29 bps YoY to 1.85%. In 1-3Q16, the Company’s net fee income achieved RMB

68.4 bn, down 4.2% YoY. As of the end od 3Q16, the Company’s NPL ratio was 1.48%, up 0.05 pts YTD. The NPL

coverage increased slightly 2.53 pts to 155.83%. Impairment losses for 1-3Q increased by 42.5% YoY.

The following factors will be positive to BOC: 1) It announced to establish institution to specialize in

debt-to-equity swap business; 2) BOCHK plans to sell Chiyu Bank at a consideration of RMB HKD 7.7 bn, which will

bring a one-off gain;3) The Fed's interest rate hikes; 4) RMB depreciation is projected to contribute to earnings and

asset appreciation for its higher proportion of overseas assets.

We revise up the EPS estimates for FY16/FY17/FY18 by 2.1%/3.2%/6.6% to RMB 0.577/RMB 0.591/RMB 0.627, up

2.2% YoY, 2.5% YoY and 6.0% YoY, respectively. We revise up our TP for the Company from HK$ 3.72 to

HK$ 4.04, equivalent to 6.2x FY16 PER, 6.1x FY17 PER, 0.7x FY16 PBR and 0.7x FY17 PBR. We maintain

“Accumulate” rating for the Company.

Research Focus


China Merchants Bank (03968 HK): Better Earnings Growth Prospects, Upgrade to “Buy”

Rating: Buy 6-18m TP: HK$23.20


Summary

1-3Q16 net profit YoY growth was 7.5%, which beat expectation. In 1-3Q16, net interest income achieved RMB

100.7 bn, down 1.0% YoY. NIM narrowed 20 bps YoY to 2.56%. Non-interest income increased 10.3% YoY to

RMB 60.5 bn. Impairment losses increased 8.4% YoY. As of the end of 3Q16, the Company’s NPL ratio was 1.87%,

up 0.19 pts YTD. NPL coverage ratio achieved 186.36%, up 9.27 pts YTD.

Given the guide of strategy of "One Body, Two Wings", the Company now focuses on the development of retail

finance. As at end of 3Q16, retail loans accounted for 48.5% of the total loans. In 1-3Q16, operating income from

retail finance accounted for 49.9%. Both ranked top out of the listed banks. The development of retail finance is

expected to enhance the return on capital and decrease the risk of business, which is suitable for the

long-term transformation direction of the banking sector.

We revise up the EPS estimates for FY16/FY17/FY18 by 3.8%/7.9%/13.2% to RMB 2.447/RMB 2.677/RMB 2.998,

up 7.0% YoY, 9.4% YoY and 12.0% YoY, respectively. Considering its better earnings projections, we revise up our

TP for the Company from HK$ 18.40 to HK$ 23.20, equivalent to 8.4x FY16 PER, 7.7x FY17 PER, 1.3x FY16 PBR

and 1.1x FY17 PBR. We upgrade our rating for the Company from “Accumulate” to "Buy".

China Minsheng Bank (01988 HK): Expected Business Spinoff, Maintain “Accumulate”



Summary

1-3Q16 net profit YoY growth was 2.0%, in line. In 1-3Q16, net interest income achieved RMB 70.9 bn, up 0.6%

YoY. Non-interest income decreased 0.4% YoY to RMB 45.5 bn. Impairment losses increased 23.4% YoY. As of the

end of 3Q16, the Company’s NPL ratio was 1.57%, down 0.03 pts YTD. NPL coverage ratio achieved 154.40%, up

0.77 pts YTD.

The Company has basically completed the preparation for the spinoff of its credit card business and direct

banking business, which can be operated independently only if approved by the CSRC. We expect that the

business spinoffs can make the Company's relevant businesses operate better, which can strengthen the

Company's comprehensive competitive edge.

We revise the EPS estimates for FY16/FY17/FY18 by -0.3%/1.0%/4.3% to RMB 1.292/RMB 1.370/RMB 1.503,

down 0.6% YoY, up 6.0% YoY and 9.7% YoY, respectively. We revise up our TP for the Company from HK$8.31 to

HK$10.00, equivalent to 6.9x FY16 PER, 6.5x FY17 PER, 1.0x FY16 PBR and 0.9x FY17 PBR. We maintain


Research Focus


China CITIC Bank (00998 HK): Big Shareholder Continuously Increases Shareholding, Maintain “Accumulate”



Summary

1-3Q16 net profit YoY growth was 4.9%, which beat expectation slightly. In 1-3Q16, net interest income

achieved RMB 795.2 bn, up 3.6% YoY. NIM narrowed 32 bps YoY to 2.01%. Non-interest income increased 16.9%

YoY to RMB 36.1 bn. Impairment losses increased 24.3% YoY. As of the end of 3Q16, the Company’s NPL ratio

was 1.50%, up 0.07 pts YTD. NPL coverage ratio achieved 154.94%, down 12.87 pts YTD.

The Company announced that its big shareholder, CITIC Group, increased its shareholding in the Company to 32.2

bn shares. After this increase, CITIC Group’s proportion of shareholding in the Company was enhanced to 65.8%.

Meanwhile, CITIC Group expressed an interest in increasing the shareholding of the Company until 21 January

2017. We expect that this increase of shareholding will enhance investors’ confidence in the Company.

We revise up the EPS estimates for FY16/FY17/FY18 by 2.9%/3.4%/6.8% to RMB 0.872/RMB 0.913/RMB 0.996,

down 0.8% YoY, up 4.7% YoY and up 9.1% YoY, respectively. We revise up our TP for the Company from HK$5.16

to HK$5.88, equivalent to 6.0x FY16 PER, 5.7x FY17 PER, 0.7x FY16 PBR and 0.7x FY17 PBR. We maintain


Huishang Bank (03698 HK): Considering Its Lower Daily Stock Turnover, Downgrade to “Accumulate”



Summary

Anhui’s GDP growth has been outpacing China’s GDP growth since 2008. Driven by the quick development of

Anhui’s economy, the banking sector in Anhui developed quickly. In the next few years, we expect Anhui’s economy

to continue to develop at a pace higher than that of China’s, which will continue to promote the development of

Anhui’s banking sector at a fast pace.

The 1H16 financial results beat expectations slightly, YoY growth of net profit was 11.1%. In 1H16, net

interest income was RMB 8,904 mn, up 32.9% YoY. The Company recorded net fee income of RMB 1,258 mn, up

39.5% YoY. In 1H16, impairment losses surged 72.9% YoY. As of the end 1H16, NPL ratio climbed 0.04 pts YTD to

1.02%, and its NPL coverage ratio slightly increased by 17.01 pts YTD to 267.50%.

We revise up the EPS estimates for FY16/FY17/FY18 by 3.8%/5.0%/3.1% to RMB 0.624 /RMB 0.707/RMB 0.809,

up 11.9% YoY, 13.2% YoY and 14.5% YoY, respectively. To reflect the market valuations and its projected better

earnings growth, we revise up our TP for the Company from HK$4.23 to HK$4.72, equivalent to 6.7x FY16 PER,

5.9x FY17 PER, 0.9x FY16 PBR and 0.8x FY17 PBR. However, considering its lower daily stock turnover, we

downgrade our rating for the Company from "Buy" to "Accumulate".

Research Focus


Chinese Translation 中文翻译

行业和公司焦点

博彩行业：12 月份澳门博彩总收入同比增长 8.8%，好于市场的 5.5%预期

分析员：Noah Hudson

事件描述：澳门12月的博彩总收入金额为198.15亿澳门元、同比增长8.0%，低彭博对8位分析师调查后

得出的增长9%的预估中值（预估区间为增长5%至13%）。12月的博彩总收入环比增长5.5%，低于澳门此

前5年的12月份的平均6.9%环比增长率。2016年全年，澳门博彩总收入累计为2,232.11亿澳门元，下降

3.3%。

观点评论：12 月博彩总收入是连续第 5 个月实现同比增长。尽管 2016 年全年博彩总收入金额同比下降

3.3%，但是 2016 年 8 月至 12 月的同比增长 7.8%，显示行业已经好转。我们预期在 2017 年澳门总博彩

收入将继续正面增长。

投资建议：我们建议“买入”新濠博亚（MPEL US）以及永利澳门（01128 HK），目标价分别为 22.00

美元和 15.20 港元。同时，我们也建议“收集”美高梅中国（02282 HK），目标价 17.60 港元。新濠博亚

基本面已经开始好转，而且估值低。我们认为，永利皇宫较弱的起步把市场预期拉低，而给永利皇宫带来

超预期的上升空间并且为永利澳门股票创造了“买入”机会。我们看好美高梅中国的前景，相对对手在

2015 年和 2016 年开幕的赌场，美高梅路氹作为澳门最新的赌场的时期最久将给它带来一定的优势。

亨得利 (03389 HK)：非常重大出售事项

分析员：宋涛

事件描述：亨得利公告称向公司主席出售新宇和丰溢销售股份。交易代价约为人民币 35 亿元，基于 2016

年 6 月 30 日公司股东应占出售资产未经审计资产约 51 亿元人民币及最低股息派付 15 亿元人民币。董事

会拟在出售完成后宣派每股不少于 0.2 港元特别股息。

观点评论：新宇集团主要从事在中国大陆市场的手表零售和批发业务及提供售后服务。丰溢集团主要从事

在香港零售珠宝、中低端手表及如用百货。在完成出售后公司业务仅剩在香港和台湾零售中高端手表业务

和手表配件制造。2015 年，新宇集团录得税后利润约 3 亿元人民币，丰溢集团录得税后亏损约 42 百万

元人民币。交易对价相当于 13.1 倍 2015 年每股净利，相比周大福(01929 HK)20.0 倍 2017 财年 PER 估

值较低。但是考虑公司目前 2016 年 PBR 为 0.81 倍，我们认为交易代价合理。

投资建议：公司上个交易日收于 1.12 港元，已超过我们目标价。由于此次出售预计将减少公司约 80%的

收入并且可预见性降低，我们考虑下调投资评级。

Research Focus


中国恒大(03333 HK)：与投资者达成对赌协议

分析员：刘斐凡

事件描述：中国恒大（“公司”）在 2016 年 12 月 30 日宣布了一个主要交易。依据这个主要交易，投资者

将会向恒大地产（公司间接全资附属公司且主要从事地产开发）的资本投入出资合共人民币 300 亿元，以

换取恒大地产经扩大后股权的 13.16%。凯隆置业（公司间接全资附属公司）和恒大地产向投资者承诺恒

大地产 2017 年，2018 年和 2019 年的净利润分别不低于人民币 243 亿元，人民币 308 亿元和人民币 337

亿元。主要投资者，订立重组协议前的股息派付以及回购协议或补偿分别如下：

投资者投资金额（人民币十亿）权益

中信聚恒(深圳)投资控股中心(有限合伙) 5.0 2.19%

广田投资有限公司 5.0 2.19%

深圳市华建控股有限公司 5.0 2.19%

深圳市中融鼎兴投资合伙企业（有限合伙） 3.0 1.32%

山东高速集团有限公司 3.0 1.32%

苏州工业园区睿灿投资企业 (有限合伙) 3.0 1.32%

深圳市美投高新技术创业投资有限公司 3.0 1.32%

广东唯美明珠投资有限公司 3.0 1.32%

资料来源，公司，国泰君安国际。

情况结果

如果恒大地产一个财政年度的利润不低于履约承诺金额至少其净利润的 60%分派予股东

如果恒大地产一个财政年度的利润低于履约承诺金额应派赋予股息的比例=股东持有股权比例/(恒大地产该财政年度实际净利润/

该年度的履约承诺金额)


情况 1 以原有投资成本回购相关投资者的股份

情况 2 凯隆置业向相关投资者提供作为弥补的恒大地产股权的百分比=相关投资者签订补偿协议时持有恒大地产权益百分比(不

包括相关投资协议签订后收购的任何权益)*50%


观点评论：增资为公司筹集资金并使公司维持深深房在建议重组时完成后的公众持股。我们预计公司的合

约销售和净利润将会保持快速增长。经测算的恒大地产的市值为人民币 2,280 亿元。但是恒大地产在 2016

年 12 月 30 日的市值仅为 660 亿港元。因此，我们认为公司被低估。但是，这次对赌协议将会增加公司的

运营和资金压力，特别是在政策收紧后房地产市场可能降温的背景下。

投资建议：整体而言，公司目前投资评级为“收集”，目标价为 5.17 港元，相当于其 2017 年 NAV 有 54%

的折让，也相当于 7.4 倍 2017 年的核心市盈率和 1.0 倍 2017 年的市净率。

中国奥园(03883 HK): 收购位于浙江项目土地的 100%权益

分析员：刘斐凡

事件描述：中国奥园（“公司”）在 2016 年 12 月 30 日宣布了一项收购。公司已经同意按现金代价人民币

7.10 亿收购目标公司全部股权。项目公司开发位于浙江省宁波北仑小港季景路南黄山路且最高计容建面为

119,470 平米的综合体项目。在 2016 年，公司合约销售录得人民币 256 亿元，同比上升 69%。

观点评论：在 2016 年 7 月 31 日末，项目公司未经审计的净资产约为人民币 5.16 亿元。我们测算此次收

购的平均地价约为人民币 5,943 元每平米。考虑到宁波目前的平均售价（约为人民币 13,700 元每平米），

我们相信此次收购代价并不贵。

投资建议：公司土储主要位于一线/二线/国际城市。债务结构正在改善，降低了对于人民币贬值的风险和

Research Focus


融资成本。公司基本面正在逐渐改善。公司目前投资评级为“收集”，目标价为 1.98 港元，相当于其 2017

年 NAV 有 61%的折让，也相当于 3.4 倍 2017 年的核心市盈率和 0.5 倍 2017 年的市净率。

最新报告

康师傅 (00322 HK)：初见曙光但挑战依旧

评级：中性 6-18m 目标价: HK$9.20

分析员：吴宇扬报告日期: 2016-12-30

报告摘要

康师傅 2016 年第 3 季度业绩好于市场预期。康师傅的 2016 第 3 季度和前 3 季度的收入分别同比下降 1.5%和 9.4%。

第 3 季度收入情况的改善主要由于饮料收入的反弹，其同比上涨 3.5%至 16.96 亿美元。第 3 季度康师傅毛利率同比

上升 0.1 个百分点，环比上升 1.6 个百分点，主要由于饮料毛利率的改善。第 3 季度公司股东净利同比下滑 1.0%至

1.43 亿美元，净利率维持不变。

康师傅方便面的市场份额下降但饮料的市场份额上升。公司在中端方便面的市场地位增强，第 3 季度中端袋装方便面

同比增长 20.3%。价格的调整帮助康师傅夺回了瓶装水的市场份额。在饮料业务中茶产品的收入同比增长最快。公司

未来盈利能力可能好于市场预期。我们分别上调康师傅的 2016-2018 年每股净利 8.0%, 1.9% 和 0.7%。

虽然我们预计公司将保持 U 型复苏的势头，但我们对复苏的速度不是太乐观因为 2017 年中国的经济增长预计继续放

缓，2017 年对整个食品饮料行业来说仍然是艰苦的一年。因此，我们维持公司“中性”评级不变但上调目标价至 9.20

港元。新目标价相当于 31.5 倍 2016 年市盈率，21.5 倍 2017 年市盈率和 19.5 倍 2018 年市盈率。

行业报告：银行业：2017 年盈利增速预计将反弹，维持“跑赢大市”评级

评级：跑赢大市 6-18m 目标价: n.a.

分析员：曹柱报告日期: 2016-12-30

报告摘要

我们预计中国银行业 2017 年总资产同比增长约 12.5%。由于地方债务置换对资产回报率带来下行压力，中国银行业

净息差将继续同比收窄，然而收窄程度将显著低于 2016 年。预计 2017 年中国银行业净息差约 2.13%。我们预计中国

银行业非利息收入在经营收入中所占比例将上升至 25.3%。减值损失预计仍将成为影响银行业 2017 年净利润增速的

主要因素。综合考虑各种因素，我们预计中国银行业净利润同比增速在 2016、2017 和 2018 年分别为 2.5%、5.2%

和 7.5%。

截至 2016 年 12 月 30 日，我们覆盖的内地银行 2016 年/2017 年的一致预期加权平均市盈率与市净率分别为 5.7 倍/5.6

倍与 0.8 倍/0.7 倍。当前估值仍然偏低。我们预计 2017 年以下因素将为银行估值提供支撑：1）我们预计中国经济企

稳、经济结构进一步优化以及流动性维持偏宽松；2）我们认为中国银行业净利润同比增速将由当前的低谷反弹；3）

我们预计资产质量恶化的压力将进一步缓解。因此，我们维持中国银行业 2017 年“跑赢大市”投资评级。

Research Focus


交通银行 (03328 HK): 收购 BBM 银行完成，维持“收集”评级

评级：收集 6-18m 目标价: HK$6.60


报告摘要

2016 年前三季度公司录得股东净利润 526 亿元人民币，同比上涨 1.0%。2016 年前三季度，公司实现净利息收入与

手续费净收入 1,008 亿元人民币和 289 亿元人民币，同比分别下滑了 6.7%和增长 5.4%。前三季净息差同比收缩了 33

个基点至 1.91%。前三季度减值损失达 216 亿元人民币，同比增长 3.4%。截至 2016 年三季度末，公司不良贷款率达

1.53%，较年初上升 0.02 个百分点。不良贷款拨备覆盖率较年初下滑了 5.26 个百分点至 150.31%。

公司完成对巴西 BBM 银行约 80%股权的收购。该笔收购是公司首次海外收购，也是公司在拉丁美洲市场扩张的第一

步，有利于扩大公司在巴西市场的业务。

我们分别将 2016/2017/2018 年的每股盈利上调 0.8%、3.1%和 6.7%。我们预计公司的 2016/2017/2018 年每股盈利

分别为 0.904 元人民币、0.940 元人民币和 1.000 元人民币，分别同比上涨 0.9%、4.0%和 6.3%。我们认为当前估值

仍较低。我们将公司的目标价从 5.62 港元上调到 6.60 港元，对应 6.5 倍 2016 年市盈率和 6.2 倍 2017 年市盈率，0.7

倍 2016 年市净率和 0.7 倍 2017 年市净率。我们维持对公司的“收集”投资评级不变。

工商银行 (01398 HK): 2016 年前三季度业绩基本符合预期，维持“收集”评级



报告摘要

2016 年前三季度录得股东净利润 2,228 亿元人民币，同比增长 0.5%。2016 年前三季度，公司净利息收入及手续费净

收入分别为 3,514 亿元和 1,137 亿元人民币，同比分别下降 7.5%和上升 2.3%。公司前三季度减值损失达 639 亿元人

民币，同比增长 3.8%。截至 2016 年三季度末，公司不良贷款率为 1.62%，较年初攀升 0.12 个百分点。不良贷款拨

备覆盖率较年初下跌 20.20 个百分点至 136.14%。

公司宣布出资 120 亿元人民币设立工银资产管理公司，专营债转股业务。通过债转股业务，预计将使公司不良贷款率

下滑，并带来合理投资回报。

我们分别将 2016/2017/2018 年的每股收益上调 0.5%、1.3%和 3.4%。我们预计公司的 2016/2017/2018 年每股收益

分别为 0.782 元人民币、0.802 元人民币、0.839 元人民币，分别同比上涨 0.4%、2.6%和 4.5%。我们认为当前估值



Research Focus


建设银行 (00939 HK): 不良贷款率下滑，维持“收集”评级



报告摘要

2016 年前三季度录得股东净利润 1,938 亿元人民币，同比增长 1.2%。2016 年前三季度，公司净利息和净手续费收入

分别达 3,158 亿元人民币和 923 亿元人民币，同比分别下滑 7.3%和增长 4.1%。受前期人民银行降息和利率自由化的

影响，前三季度净息差同比收缩 38 个基点至 2.26%。资产质量略超预期，截至 2016 年三季度末，不良贷款余额按季

环比小幅下降 1.2%至 1,797 亿元人民币。由于不良贷款余额下滑，使公司不良贷款率环比下降 0.07 个百分点、比期

初下降 0.02 个百分点至 1.56%。不良贷款拨备覆盖率按季环比下降 2.85 个百分点至 148.78%，较年初下降 2.21 个百

分点。前三季度减值损失达 637 亿元人民币，同比降低 0.7%。


分别为 0.922 元人民币、0.959 元人民币和 1.016 元人民币，分别同比上涨 1.1%、3.9%和 6.0%。我们认为当前估值



农业银行 (01288 HK): 成立债转股机构，维持“收集”评级



报告摘要

2016 年前三季度录得股东净利润 1,542 亿元人民币，同比增长 0.6%。2016 年前三季度，公司净利息收入为 2,981

亿元人民币，同比下降 9.3%；净手续费收入为 731 亿元人民币，同比增长 9.8%，增长来源主要是代理业务和电子银

行业务的增长。前三季度季减值损失达 605 亿元人民币，同比增长 5.5%。截至三季度末，公司不良贷款率为 2.39%，

较年初持平。不良贷款拨备覆盖率比年初下降 16.70 个百分点至 177.72%。

公司为首家设立债转股业务机构的银行。2016 年 11 月 22 日，公司宣布出资 100 亿元人民币设立农银资产管理公司，

专营债转股业务。


分别为 0.553 元人民币、0.577 元人民币和 0.612 元人民币，分别同比上涨 0.7%、4.3%和 6.1%。我们将公司的目标

价从 3.30 港元上调到 3.76 港元，对应 6.1 倍 2016 年市盈率和 5.8 倍 2017 年市盈率，0.8 倍 2016 年市净率和 0.7 倍

2017 年市净率。我们维持对公司的“收集”投资评级不变。

Research Focus


中国银行 (03988 HK): 一次性收益贡献上半年盈利增速，维持“收集”评级



报告摘要

2016 年前三季度股东净利润同比增长 2.5%，主要源于子公司中银香港上半年出售南商银行获得的一次性收益。2016

年前三季度，公司净利息收入为 2,298 亿元人民币，同比下降 6.7%。前三季度净息差同比收窄 29 个基点至 1.85%。

前三季度手续费净收入为 684 亿元人民币，同比下降 4.2%。截至 2016 年三季度末，公司不良贷款率为 1.48%，较年

初攀升 0.05 个百分点，不良贷款拨备覆盖率较年初小幅增长 2.53 个百分点至 155.83%。公司前三季度减值损失同比

增 42.5%。

公司将有以下利好因素：1) 宣布设立专门机构开展债转股业务；2) 中银香港计划以 77 亿港元出售集友银行，该计划

预计带来一次性收入；3)美联储加息；4)海外资产占比较大，人民币贬值有利于公司盈利上升和资产升值。

我们分别将 2016/2017/2018 年的每股盈利上调 2.1%、3.2%和 6.6%至 0.577 元人民币、0.591 元人民币和 0.627 元

人民币，分别同比上涨 2.2%、2.5%和 6.0%。我们将公司的目标价从 3.72 港元上调到 4.04 港元，对应 6.2 倍 2016

年市盈率和 6.1 倍 2017 年市盈率，0.7 倍 2016 年市净率和 0.7 倍 2017 年市净率。我们维持对公司的“收集”投资

评级不变。

招商银行 (03968 HK): 预期盈利增速较好，上调至“买入”评级

评级：买入 6-18m 目标价: HK$23.20


报告摘要

2016 年前三季度股东净利润同比增速 7.5%，好于预期。2016 年前三季度，净利息收入达 1,007 亿元人民币，同比

下滑 1.0%，净息差同比收窄 20 个基点至 2.56%。非利息收入同比增长 10.3%至 605 亿元人民币。减值损失同比增

长 8.4%。截至 2016 年三季度末，公司不良贷款率为 1.87%，较年初上涨 0.19 个百分点。不良贷款拨备覆盖率达

186.36%，较年初上涨 9.27 个百分点。

在“一体两翼”的战略指引下，公司目前集中发展零售金融业务。截至 2016 年三季度末，零售贷款占总贷款的 48.5%。

前三季度，零售金融营业收入占 49.9%。两者都位于上市银行前列。发展零售金融业务预计将提高资本回报率以及

降低业务风险，符合银行业的长期转型方向。


人民币，分别同比上涨 7.0%、9.4%和 12.0%。考虑其较好的盈利预期，我们将公司的目标价从 18.40 港元上调到 23.20

港元，对应 8.4 倍 2016 年市盈率和 7.7 倍 2017 年市盈率，1.3 倍 2016 年市净率和 1.1 倍 2017 年市净率。我们将公

司的投资评级从“收集”上调至“买入”。

Research Focus


民生银行 (01988 HK): 存在业务分拆预期，维持“收集”评级



报告摘要

2016 年前三季度股东净利润同比增速 2.0%，符合预期。2016 年前三季度，净利息收入达 709 亿元人民币，同比上

涨 0.6%。非利息收入同比下滑 0.4%至 455 亿元人民币。减值损失同比增长 23.4%。截至 2016 年三季度末，公司不

良贷款率为 1.57%，较年初下滑了 0.03 个百分点。不良贷款拨备覆盖率达 154.40%，较年初上涨 0.77 个百分点。

公司已经基本上完成了信用卡业务与直销银行业务分拆的准备工作，证监会批准后就可以独立运营。我们预计业务分

拆能使其相关业务更好运作，增加公司的综合竞争力。

我们分别修正 2016/2017/2018 年的每股盈利-0.3%、1.0%和 4.3%至 1.292 元人民币、1.370 元人民币、1.503 元人

民币，分别同比下降 0.6%、上升 6.0%、上升 9.7%。我们将公司的目标价从 8.31 港元上调到 10.00 港元，对应 6.9

倍 2016 年市盈率和 6.5 倍 2017 年市盈率，1.0 倍 2016 年市净率和 0.9 倍 2017 年市净率。我们维持对公司的“收集”

投资评级不变。

中信银行 (00998 HK): 大股东持续增持，维持“收集”评级



报告摘要

2016 年前三季度净利润同比增长 4.9%，小幅超预期。公司 2016 年前三季度录得净利息收入 7,952 亿元人民币，同

比增长 3.6%。净息差收窄 32 个基点至 2.01%。非利息收入同比增长 16.9%至 361 亿元人民币。减值损失同比增 24.3%。

截至 2016 年三季度末，不良贷款率 1.50%，较年初增长 0.07 个百分点。不良贷款拨备覆盖率达到 154.94%，较年初

下降了 12.87 个百分点。

公司公告其大股东中信集团增持公司股票 322 亿股。增持后，中信集团占公司股权比例达到 65.8%。同时，中信集团

表示将在 2017 年 1 月 21 日前继续择机增持公司股权。我们预计该事项将增强投资者对公司的信心。

我们分别将 2016/2017/2018 年的每股盈利上调 2.9%、3.4%和 6.8%至 0.872 元人民币、0.913 元人民币、0.996 元人

民币，分别同比下降 0.8%、上升 4.7%、上升 9.1%。我们将公司的目标价从 5.16 港元上调到 5.88 港元，对应 6.0 倍

2016 年市盈率和 5.7 倍 2017 年市盈率，0.7 倍 2016 年市净率和 0.7 倍 2017 年市净率。我们维持对公司的“收集”

投资评级不变。

Research Focus


徽商银行 (03698 HK): 考虑其较低的日成交额，下调至“收集”评级



报告摘要

安徽的 GDP 自 2008 年来一直高于全国的增速。受惠于安徽经济的快速发展，安徽的银行业发展迅速。未来几年，我

们预计安徽的经济增速仍将快于全国，将继续拉动安徽银行业快速发展。

2016 年上半年业绩略好于预期,净利润同比增长 11.1%。上半年，净利息收入达 8,904 百万元人民币，同比增长 32.9%。

公司录得净手续费收入 1,258 百万人民币，同比增长 39.5%。上半年，资产减值损失同比大幅增长了 72.9%。截至上

半年末，不良贷款率比期初攀升 0.04 个百分点至 1.02%,公司的不良贷款拨备覆盖率比期初上升 17.01 个百分点至

267.50%。


人民币，分别同比上涨 11.9%、13.2%和 14.5%。为了反映市场估值及其较好的盈利增长预期，我们将公司的目标价

从 4.23 港元上调到 4.72 港元，对应 6.7 倍 2016 年市盈率和 5.9 倍 2017 年市盈率，0.9 倍 2016 年市净率和 0.8 倍

2017 年市净率。然而，考虑其较低的股票日成交金额，我们下调公司的投资评级由“买入”至“收集”。

Research Focus


Research Department 研究部

Grace Liu 刘谷 Head of Research, Market

Strategy, Petrochemicals

主管，市场策略、石化

[email protected] (852) 2509 7516

Noah Hudson Noah Hudson Consumer (Hotels), Gaming 消费（酒店）、博彩 [email protected] (86755) 23976684

Gary Wong 黄家玮 Environmental Protection,

Infrastructure

环保、基建 [email protected] (852) 2509 2616

Ray Zhao 赵睿 Conglomerate, E-commerce 综合、电子商务 [email protected] (86755) 23976755

Square Chui 徐惠芳 Futures 期货 [email protected] (852) 2509 2629

Kevin Guo 郭勇 Raw Materials, Gas 原材料、燃气 [email protected] (86755) 23976671

Ricky Lai 黎柏坚 Telecommunications, Internet 电信、互联网 [email protected] (852) 2509 2603

Dayton Wang 王庆鲁 Insurance, Fixed-income 保险、债券 [email protected] (852) 2509 5347

Richard Cao 曹柱 Banking 银行 [email protected] (86755) 23976870

Jun Zhu 朱俊杰 Clean Energy, Electric Equipment 清洁能源、电力设备 [email protected] (852) 2509 7592

Andrew Song 宋涛 Consumer (Retailing),

Home Appliances

消费（零售）、家电

[email protected] (852) 2509 5313

Van Liu 刘斐凡 Property 房地产 [email protected] (86755) 23976672

Sean Xiang 向宇豪 Machinery, Construction Materials 机械、建材 [email protected] (86755) 23976725

Terry Hong 洪学宇 Consumer (Apparel) 消费（服装） [email protected] (86755) 23976722

Johnny Wong 王俊浩 Macroeconomics, Property 宏观、房地产 [email protected] (852) 2509 5348

Toliver Ma 马守彰 Aviation,

Automobiles & Components

航空、汽车 [email protected] (852) 2509 5317

Spencer Fan 范明 Shipping & Logistics, Ports, 航运物流、港口 [email protected] (86755) 23976686

Barney Wu 吴宇扬 Consumer (Food & Beverage,

Household Products)

消费（食品饮料、日用品）

[email protected] (86755) 23976680

Gary Ching 程嘉伟 Market Strategy 市场策略 [email protected] (852) 2509 2665

Jake Wang 汪昌江 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (86755) 23976675

Wiley Huang 黄重钧 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 2509 5409

Danny Law 罗沛达 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 2509 7768

David Liu 刘静骁 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 2509 5441

Kay Mai 麦梓琪 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (86755) 23976685

Gary Yang 杨光 Research Assistant 研究助理 [email protected] (852) 2509 2642

Esabella Zhao 赵舒蔓 Research Assistant, Translator 研究助理、翻译员 [email protected] (86755) 23976681

Penny Pan 潘凌蕾 Secretary, Translator 秘书、翻译员 [email protected] (852) 2509 2632

Research Focus


Company Rating Definition

The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index

Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months

Rating Definition

Buy Relative Performance >15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.

Accumulate Relative Performance is 5% to 15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is favorable.

Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is neutral.

Reduce Relative Performance is -5% to -15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sell Relative Performance <-15%; or the fundamental outlook of the company or sector is unfavorable.

Sector Rating Definition

The Benchmark: Hong Kong Hang Seng Index / NASDAQ Composite Index

Time Horizon: 6 to 18 months

Rating Definition

Outperform Relative Performance >5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is favorable.

Neutral Relative Performance is -5% to 5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is neutral.

Underperform Relative Performance <-5%; or the fundamental outlook of the sector is unfavorable.

DISCLOSURE OF INTERESTS

(1) Except for Shenzhen International Holdings Limited (00152 HK), the Analysts and their associates do not serve as an officer of the issuer

mentioned in this Research Report. (2) The Analysts and their associates do not have any financial interests in relation to the issuer mentioned in this Research Report. (3) Except for SMI Holdings Group Limited (00198 HK), Guotai Junan International Holdings Limited (01788 HK), Binhai Investment Company

Limited (02886 HK) and Link Holdings Limited (08237 HK), Guotai Junan and its group companies do not hold equal to or more than 1% of the market capitalization of the issuer mentioned in this Research Report.

(4) Guotai Junan and its group companies have had investment banking relationships with Modern Land (01107 HK) / Evergrande Real Estate (03333 HK) / China Dredging Environment Protection (00871 HK) / China Aoyuan Property (03883 HK) / GOME Electrical Appliances (00493 HK) / China Wood Optimization (01885 HK) / Anhui Conch Cement- H shares (00914 HK) / 361 Degrees (01361 HK) / Powerlong Real Estate (01238 HK) / China All Access (00633 HK) / Huaneng Renewables- H shares (00958 HK) / Hengdeli (03389 HK) / Sundart Holdings Ltd. (01568 HK) / Huaneng Power- H shares (00902 HK) / AviChina Industry & Technology- H shares (02357 HK) / China Power (02380 HK) / Sinotruk (03808 HK) / Xiao Nan Guo Restaurants (03666 HK) / SMI Holdings Group (00198 HK) / Chanjet Information Technology- H shares (01588 HK) / Tianyun International (06836 HK) / China U-Ton (06168 HK) / Huishang Bank- H shares (03698 HK) / Bosideng (03998 HK) mentioned in this Research Report within the preceding 12 months.

(5) Guotai Junan and its group companies are not making a market in the securities mentioned in this Research Report. (6) Guotai Junan and its group companies have not employed an individual serving as an officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research

Report. There is no officer of any issuers mentioned in this Research Report associated with Guotai Junan and its group companies.

DISCLAIMER

This Research Report does not constitute an invitation or offer to acquire, purchase or subscribe for securities by Guotai Junan Securities (Hong

Kong) Limited ("Guotai Junan"). Guotai Junan and its group companies may do business that relates to companies covered in research reports, including investment banking, investment services, etc. (for example, the placing agent, lead manager, sponsor, underwriter or invest proprietarily). Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment strategies expressed orally or in written form by sales persons, dealers and other professional executives of Guotai Junan group of companies. Any opinions expressed in this report may differ or be contrary to opinions or investment decisions made by the asset management and investment banking groups of Guotai Junan. Though best effort has been made to ensure the accuracy of the information and data contained in this Research Report, Guotai Junan does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the information and data herein. This Research Report may contain some forward-looking estimates and forecasts derived from the assumptions of the future political and economic conditions with inherently unpredictable and mutable situation, so uncertainty may contain. Investors should understand and comprehend the investment objectives and its related risks, and where necessary consult their own financial advisers prior to any investment decision. This Research Report is not directed at, or intended for distribution to or use by, any person or entity who is a citizen or resident of or located in any jurisdiction where such distribution, publication, availability or use would be contrary to applicable law or regulation or which would subject Guotai Junan and its group companies to any registration or licensing requirement within such jurisdiction. © 2017 Guotai Junan Securities (Hong Kong) Limited. All Rights Reserved. 27/F., Low Block, Grand Millennium Plaza, 181 Queen’s Road Central, Hong Kong. Tel.: (852) 2509-9118 Fax: (852) 2509-7793 Website: www.gtja.com.hk

Research Department Morning Research Focus

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