Research C A S E S T U D I E S Technology Enterprise...CY19 guidance by observing Fortune 500...
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Enterprise Technology Research C A S E S T U D I E S 2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary IDENTIFYING POSITIVE & NEGATIVE TRENDS AHEAD OF CONSENSUS OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA If you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
Transcript of Research C A S E S T U D I E S Technology Enterprise...CY19 guidance by observing Fortune 500...
Enterprise Technology Research
C A S E S T U D I E S
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary
IDENTIFYING POSITIVE & NEGATIVE TRENDS AHEAD OF CONSENSUS
OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
If you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
Juniper Case Study
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
ETR was able to identify weakness in Juniper's Networking business prior to Juniper reporting 4Q18 results and providing 1Q19 guidance by observing demand for Juniper Networking products among IT/Telco customers and expected spend on Juniper in Information Security.
If you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
● From 12/13/18 - 1/23/19, ETR captured 2019 spending intentions data for Juniper through ETR’s Technology Spending Intentions Survey
● 162 customers, which represent approximately $87B in total annual IT spend, indicated a 2019 spending intention for Juniper, which included 37 Fortune 500 and 56 Global 2000 customers
● In its final report (published 1/23/19), ETR noted that “Networking spend on Juniper continues to be a rollercoaster, particularly among IT/Telco customers which are slowing spend further into 2019 after a large deceleration in 2H18. Information Security spend on Juniper is accelerating for 2019.”
● On 1/29/19, Juniper reported revenues below consensus1, while guiding revenues lower2. Management noted “continued weakness with several of our cloud and service provider customers more than offset solid momentum in our enterprise business”
● Inversely, Juniper beat Information Security business line expectations3
● The following day, shares of Juniper fell 8.2% (EOP)
JUNIPER CASE STUDY - How our data creates the dots that connect.
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
1 FQ4 Dec, $1.18B vs. consensus $1.23B2 FQ1 Mar, $980M vs consensus of $1.11B3 FQ4 Dec, $103.6M vs consensus of $85.3M
If you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
JUNIPER NETWORKING | NET SCORE, MARKET SHARE | IT/TELCO CUSTOMERS | TIME SERIES
Demand for Juniper Networking products among IT/Telco enterprises is slowing significantly in 2019
Compared to 2018, less customers expect to increase spend in 2019 and more indicated flat spending intentions
Planned replacements also increased from year-ago levels
If you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
JUNIPER INFORMATION SECURITY | NET SCORE | BY CUSTOMER SUBSAMPLE
Expected spend on Juniper in Information Security is accelerating from 2H18 levels across virtually all customer subsamples
Compared to year-ago levels, expected spend in 2019 is increasing the most among Private, North America and International organizations
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ServiceNow Case Study
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
ETR was able to identify strengthening customer demand prior to ServiceNow reporting 4Q18 results and providing CY19 guidance by observing Fortune 500 customer spend and adoption rates among International (EMEA), Global 1000/2000, Fortune 100 and Midsize & Small customers.
If you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary
● From 12/13/18 - 1/23/19, ETR captured 2019 spending intentions data for ServiceNow through ETR’s Technology Spending Intentions Survey
● 313 customers, which represent approximately $161B in total annual IT spend, indicated a 2019 spending intention for ServiceNow, which included 82 Fortune 500 and 122 Global 2000 customers
● In its final report (published 1/23/19), ETR noted that “ServiceNow continues to reaffirm its position with the enterprise as a true heavyweight contender, as its spend and market share data continues to shine among the largest organizations in the world.” ETR elaborated further by highlighting continued broad based strength in spending intentions, adoption rates, and market share gains across the largest organizations in the world (Fortune 100/500, Global 1000/2000, and Financials / Insurance)
● On 1/30/19, ServiceNow reported revenues above consensus1, while guiding up CY19 subscription revenues2. Billings were also ahead of consensus estimates3
● ServiceNow ended the quarter with 678 customers > $1M, which was an acceleration versus the previous quarter’s growth rate4; and showed no slowdown in Global 2000 new customer additions5
● The following day, shares of ServiceNow gained 13.4% (EOP)
OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
1 FQ4 Dec, $673.6M vs. consensus $665.1M2 CY19, $3.225B vs consensus of $3.17B3 FQ4 Dec, $1.02B vs consensus of $954.6M4 +33% y/y vs +27% y/y5 +20 versus the previous quarter +20
SERVICENOW CASE STUDY - How our data creates the dots that connect.
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SERVICENOW ENTERPRISE APPS | NET SCORE, MARKET SHARE | FORTUNE 500 | TIME SERIES
Among Fortune 500 customers, enterprise IT spend on ServiceNow has significantly accelerated, driven by F500 customers indicating they intend to Increase spend in 2019 vs 2018
ServiceNow received no Decrease or Replacement indications from Fortune 500 customers
Market share has expanded significantly vs January 2018
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATAIf you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
SERVICENOW ENTERPRISE APPS | ADOPTION % | BY CUSTOMER SUBSAMPLE
ServiceNow Adoption rates among MSE/SMB, International (EMEA), Global 1000/2000 and Fortune 100 customers remains high
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATAIf you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
Atlassian Case StudyETR was able to forecast Atlassian’s revenue growth rate almost one year in advance by using multivariable regression analysis.
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATAIf you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary
● ETR modeled the relationship between Atlassian’s reported revenue and the data captured through ETR’s surveys by fitting a linear equation to observed data. The data points captured through ETR’s proprietary surveys are considered to be the explanatory variables, and reported revenue is considered to be the dependent variable. Once the data is regressed, ETR observes metrics such as Adjusted R2, Predicted R2 and p-value to determine which relationships are capable of providing valid revenue predictions. Simply put, our statistical programs and methodology analyze the data to provide company-specific revenue forecasts
● On 1/19/18, ETR used expected full-year spending intentions data collected from CIOs and IT Leadership during the JAN18 Technology Spending Intentions Survey to forecast +38.9% CY18/CY17 revenue growth for Atlassian
● On 4/13/18, ETR used updated full-year spending intentions data to provide an updated CY18/CY17 median revenue forecast of +39.6% for Atlassian
● After reporting CY4Q18 earnings results on 1/17/19, the consensus estimate and Atlassian’s final reported CY18 revenue growth rate ended up dead in-line with ETR’s updated CY18/CY17 median revenue forecast of +39.6%, which was provided to ETR subscribers almost one year earlier
● Shares of Atlassian gained 70.8% between 1/19/18 and 1/18/2019
OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
ATLASSIAN CASE STUDY - How our data creates the dots that connect.
If you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
ATLASSIAN CONSENSUS REVENUE ESTIMATE MOVEMENT vs ETR CY18/CY17 FORECAST
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
On January 19th 2018, ETR used expected full-year spending intentions data collected from CIOs and IT Leadership during the JAN18 Technology Spending Intentions Survey (TSIS) to forecast +38.9% CY18/CY17 revenue growth for Atlassian
On April 13th 2018, ETR used updated full-year spending intentions data collected during the APR18 TSIS to provide an updated CY18/CY17 median revenue forecast of +39.6% for Atlassian
After reporting CY4Q18 earnings results on January 17th, 2019, the consensus estimate and Atlassian’s final reported revenue growth rate ended up dead in-line with ETR’s Median Revenue Forecast from April 13th, 2018
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AWS Case StudyETR was able to forecast Amazon Web Services’ revenue growth rate almost one year in advance by using multivariable regression analysis and viewing time-series data.
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATAIf you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
AWS CASE STUDY - How our data creates the dots that connect.
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
● ETR modeled the relationship between AWS’ reported revenue and the data captured through ETR’s surveys by fitting a linear equation to observed data
● On 1/19/18, ETR used expected full-year spending intentions data collected from CIOs and IT Leadership during the JAN18 Technology Spending Intentions Survey to forecast +49.2% CY18/CY17 revenue growth for AWS (Amazon)
● At this time, the consensus expectation1 was that cloud growth would decelerate meaningfully from CY172
● ETR’s underlying AWS data (and regression forecasts) was pointing to an acceleration as AWS’ Net score and market share reached an all-time high (since JAN10) in ETR’s data
● On 4/13/18, ETR used updated full-year spending intentions data to provide an updated CY18/CY17 median revenue forecast of +49.7% for AWS (Amazon)
● After reporting CY4Q18 earnings results on 1/31/19, the consensus estimate and AWS’ final reported CY18 revenue growth rate ended up at 47.0%, which was 1166 bps closer to ETR’s updated CY18/CY17 Median Revenue Forecast of +49.7%, and 1230 bps higher than the consensus estimate on 1/19/18
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AWS ALL SECTORS | NET SCORE, MARKET SHARE | TIME SERIES
Citation-Weighted Net Score is calculated as the average Net Score across sectors weighted by citations received in each sector
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
AWS’ Citation-Weighted Net Score and Market Share hit an all time high in JAN18
AWS’ Citation-Weighted Adoption % also hit an all time high
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AWS CONSENSUS REVENUE ESTIMATE MOVEMENT vs ETR CY18/CY17 FORECAST
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
On January 19th 2018, ETR used expected full-year spending intentions data collected from CIOs and IT Leadership during the JAN18 Technology Spending Intentions Survey (TSIS) to forecast +49.2% CY18/CY17 revenue growth for AWS
On April 13th 2018, ETR used updated full-year spending intentions data collected during the APR18 TSIS to provide an updated CY18/CY17 median revenue forecast of +49.7% for AWS
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After reporting CY4Q18 earnings results on January 31, 2019, the consensus estimate and AWS’ final reported revenue growth rate ended up 1166 bps closer to ETR’s Median Revenue Forecast
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Enterprise Technology Research
C A S E S T U D I E S
2019 aptiviti Inc. – Confidential & Proprietary
IDENTIFYING POSITIVE & NEGATIVE TRENDS AHEAD OF CONSENSUS
OPINIONS ONLY EXIST DUE TO A LACK OF DATA
If you would like to learn more, email [email protected]
