Research and Developmentto Meet Urban

Weather and Climate Needs

Dr. Richard D. Rosen

NOAA Research

September 23, 2004

Presentation at “Challenges in Urban Meteorology: Forum for Users and Providers”, Rockville, MD

Why Urban Meteorology Now?

• Technological Advances – Remote sensing and other platforms– Computer models

• Homeland Security– Atmospheric Transport and Diffusion (ATD)

models

• Health and Safety– Air quality– High impact weather

Technological Advances

NOAA is working toward an integrated observing system to take into account a myriad of observational data and optimize their use.

– Satellite data – Climate Reference Network– UrbaNet – New York/Washington– Private sector ‘Weather Nets’– In situ observations– Buoys

Dust and Air Pollution Flowing Out of China Destined for the United States (April 2001)

Dust Storm Pushing Air Pollution

China

China

Air Pollution

Korea Japan

Initial UrbaNet Met Site: DOC (Hoover) Building

Data Collected: 3-D Wind Vectors TemperaturePressureRelative Humidity Solar Radiation

Data are collected in one minute intervals and the summaries are transferred every 15 minutes.

UrbaNet - Washington, DC(NOAA coordinated effort with Army, DOE, DTRA)

The 12 Yellow squares are currently operating sites.

The additional 12 Green squares are planned sites as funding permits

>0 - 1

>1 - 3

>3 - 5

>5 - 7

>7 - 10

>10 - 15

0 % 5 % 1 0 % 1 5 %

0 % 5 % 1 0 % 1 5 %

0 % 5 % 1 0 % 1 5 %

0 % 5 % 1 0 % 1 5 %

UrbaNet displays a well-known feature -- standard airport data are not appropriate for downtown dispersion applications.

Homeland Security Model of Lower Manhattan at NOAA’s Air

Resources and EPA wind tunnel facility, at Research Triangle Park, N.C.

HYSPLIT- Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory model

The red dots show trajectory end points at hourly intervals.

At small scales, UrbaNet data are now being assimilated.

The inclusion of UrbaNet data can have a significant impact.

Prediction based on 12 km Eta alone.

Prediction based on 12 km Eta but nudged towards UrbaNet data.

1000 am July 23, 2004

Homeland Security Support a system to orderly evacuate cities during

hazardous events.

Health and Safety

Air Quality Program

Scientific Advice for Decision-Makers

Regional Assessments discover key atmospheric processes that contribute to poor air quality

Houston: refinery emissions

New England: nocturnal chemistry

Air Quality Forecasting

Operational implementation for ozone initially, then particulate matter and others

Areas with the Most Serious* Air Quality ProblemsAreas with the Most Serious* Air Quality Problems

Chemically and Meteorologically DiverseChemically and Meteorologically Diverse

Central California

East Texas2000, 2006

Southeast1995, 1999

New England

2002, 2004

Mid Atlantic

Southern California

Lake Michigan

Ohio River Valley

*Designated by EPA as “serious”, “extreme”, or “severe” for ozone and/or PM

National Air Quality Forecasting

Planned Capabilities • Initial: 1-day forecast

guidance for ozone Develop and deploy in

Northeast by 9 / 2004 – Deploy nationwide

within 5 years

• Intermediate (5-7 years):– Develop and test capability to forecast particulate matter

concentration • Longer range (within 10 years):

– Extend air quality forecast range to 48-72 hours– Include broader range of significant pollutants

Health and Safety

Urban areas are especially vulnerable to high impact weather, because of the concentration of lives and property.

– Hurricanes – destructive winds and storm surge– Severe thunderstorms and tornadoes - affect

trees, power lines, and buildings– Heat waves – direct cause of more deaths than

all other weather conditions combined – Winter weather – impacts on transportation and

utility infrastructure

Heat Waves

High Impact Weather

U.S. Hazards Assessment

Summary

• Need for an urban focus was magnified by 9/11 attacks, but longstanding issues regarding health and safety continue to demand attention

• New observing systems and improved models point the way forward for research

• Complexity of urban meteorology issues demands that NOAA partner with broader community to advance research and development