Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study...

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Republican River Basin Study Summary of Nebraska Results December 1, 2015 Prepared for Republican River Restoration Partners meeting in Oberlin, Kansas

Transcript of Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study...

Page 1: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Republican River Basin Study Summary of Nebraska Results

December 1, 2015

Prepared for Republican River Restoration Partners meeting in Oberlin, Kansas

Page 2: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Outline

•Background on RRBS Study • Summary of Nebraska

methodology •Overview of Nebraska

alternatives • Summary of Nebraska results

Page 3: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Study Background

• Republican River Conjunctive Management Project (initial development late 2010)

• Began STELLA surface water model construction

• Started looking at alternatives for management strategies

• Received input from stakeholders

Page 4: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Study Background

WaterSMART grant in 2012 for Republican River Basin Study

Bureau of Reclamation (Dept. of Interior)

State of Nebraska

State of Colorado

State of Kansas

Page 5: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Study Background

Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA):

• Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River Basin.

• Analyze how existing water operations and infrastructure will perform in the face of uncertain or variable water supply and/or demands.

• Identify and evaluate options to improve operations and infrastructure to address future water supply needs.

• Recommend options (operations and infrastructure) to supply adequate water in the future.

Page 6: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Study Background

Nebraska Study Objectives:

• Maintain Compact Compliance

• Include simplified representation of IMP management actions

• Include simplified measurement of Compact Accounting

• Maximize Beneficial Water Use

• Include both ground water and surface water

• Consider both quantity and timing

Page 7: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Study Background

Page 8: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Study Background

Source: DRAFT Full Report, Republican River Basin Study 2015

Page 9: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Study Background

Source: DRAFT Full Report, Republican River Basin Study 2015

Page 10: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Study Background

• Construction of reservoirs, under Pick-Sloan program, for flood control, irrigation, and other purposes.

• Compact between Nebraska, Kansas, and Colorado in 1943.

• Final Settlement Stipulation in 2002 – included groundwater model, but not surface water model.

Page 11: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Nebraska Methodology

Page 12: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Simplified Surface Water System Nebraska Methodology

Page 13: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

STELLA Model “Tale of the Tape”

• STELLA model approximately 40MB in size, over 3,000 elements*

• Time increments (dt) of 45 minutes, 584,384 time steps over 50 years

• About 3 hours to run model and export results

Nebraska Methodology

Page 14: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

STELLA Model

“…all models are wrong, but some are useful.”

George E. P. Box

Empirical Model-Building and

Response Surfaces (1987)

Jim Goeke

Nebraska Methodology

Page 15: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

STELLA – Western Section

Swanson Reservoir Bonny Reservoir

Enders Reservoir

Nebraska Methodology

Page 16: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

STELLA – Central Section

Hugh Butler Reservoir

Harry Strunk Reservoir

Nebraska Methodology

Page 17: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

STELLA – Eastern Section

Harlan County Reservoir

Nebraska Methodology

Page 18: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Reservoir Parameters and Storage – Evaporation Connection

Hugh Butler Reservoir

Nebraska Methodology

Page 19: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Water Rights (Appropriation System)

• Simplified appropriation system, including 20 of the major canals and reservoirs

• Possibly first use of STELLA for modeling appropriation water rights structure

Nebraska Methodology

Page 20: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Connections with Ground Water Model

Nebraska Methodology

Page 21: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Time

• Calibrated to historical 1995 to 2010 conditions

• Future model runs for 2011 to 2060

• Base conditions using 1961 to 2010 inflows, 1995 to 2010 gains and losses

Nebraska Methodology

Page 22: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Climate Scenarios

• Baseline Climate = 1961 to 2010

• Climate Scenarios

o Scenario 1 (Dry)

o Scenario 2 (Median)

o Scenario 3 (Wet)

Nebraska Methodology

Page 23: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Compact Call Years

• Simplified from actual procedures

• Uses reservoir storage and accounting balances to determine if Compact Call required

Nebraska Methodology

Page 24: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Compact Call Years - Simplified • All USBR reservoirs must pass through inflows during

Compact Call Year

• Harlan County Lake allowed to store prior to irrigation season, but stored water tracked as Compact water

• HCL Compact water released to Kansas to meet KBID demands or to fill Lovewell Reservoir – remaining Compact water released at end of year

• Nebraska canals allowed to divert starting July 1

• 15,000 af and 60,000 af pumped from Rock Creek and N-CORPE aug projects, respectively

Nebraska Methodology

Page 25: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Evaluation Metrics

• Number of Compact Call Years

• Reservoir Storage Levels

• Irrigation Diversions

• Diversions for project-specific purposes

• Cost*

Nebraska Methodology

Page 26: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Overview of Nebraska Alternatives

• A baseline against which other alternatives can be evaluated

• Existing infrastructure (dams, canals, etc.) • Current IMPs with Compact Call Year process • Current management policies with canal and

reservoir operations

No Action Alternative

“Stay the Course”

Page 27: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Overview of Nebraska Alternatives

Nebraska Alternatives • Swanson Reservoir Enhanced Storage (Pump-

Back) • Downstream Exchange for Harlan County Lake

Releases (Thompson Creek Dam) • Non-Irrigation Season Canal Recharge

Kansas Alternatives • Expansion of Lovewell Reservoir

Page 28: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Swanson Reservoir Enhanced Storage

Downstream Exchange for Harlan

County Releases

Non-Irrigation Season Canal Recharge

Expansion of Lovewell Reservoir

Overview of Nebraska Alternatives

Location

Page 29: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Summary of Nebraska Results

Page 30: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• New pipeline constructed to pump back water to Swanson Reservoir from downstream: o Frenchman River o Republican River

• Take advantage of available storage space upstream

• Improve water supply reliability for Frenchman Cambridge Irrigation District

• Use existing reservoir operations

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 31: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 32: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 33: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• Alternative 3A (Frenchman Cr)

• 11.3 mile long pipeline

• 3,000 gpm design flow (6.7 cfs)

• Alternative 3B (Republican R)

• 17.4 mile long pipeline

• 5,000 gpm design flow (11.1 cfs)

Source: USBR Tech Memo No. RRB-8130-BSA-2014-1

Source: USBR Tech Memo No. RRB-8130-BSA-2014-1

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 34: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 35: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• Number of Compact Call Years

• Pump-back Diversions

• Swanson Lake Storage Levels

• Harlan County Lake Storage Levels

• FCID Irrigation Diversions

• NBID Irrigation Diversions (w/o Courtland Canal)

• Cost*

Evaluation Metrics

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 36: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Compact Call Years

• 23 Compact Call Years for No Action • 23 Compact Call Years for Frenchman

Creek Swanson Pump-Back • 23 Compact Call Years for Republican

River Swanson Pump-Back

Compact Call Years may switch, but total number unchanged

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 37: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

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Baseline Climate Swanson Pipeline Annual Diversions (AF)

Alt 3A Alt 3B

Pipeline Diversions

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 38: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

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Baseline Climate Swanson Pipeline Annual Diversions (AF)

Alt 3A Alt 3B

Pipeline Diversions

About 3,200 af pumped from Frenchman Creek, and 5,300 af from Republican River, during Non-Compact Call Years

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 39: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Swanson Lake Levels

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Baseline Climate Swanson Content (AF)

Alt 3B Alt 3A No-Action

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 40: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Swanson Lake Levels

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Baseline Climate Swanson Content (AF)

Alt 3B Alt 3A No-Action

Swanson levels higher by about 7,000 af or 10,000 af for 3A and 3B, respectively for Non-Compact Call Years.

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 41: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Harlan County Lake Levels

(Frenchman Creek Source Option 3A)

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Baseline Climate Harlan County Content (AF)

Alt 3A No-Action

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 42: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Harlan County Lake Levels

(Frenchman Creek Source Option 3A)

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Baseline Climate Harlan County Content (AF)

Alt 3A No-Action

Harlan County levels slightly lower for most years.

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 43: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Harlan County Lake Levels

(Republican River Source Option 3B)

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Baseline Climate Harlan County Content (AF)

Alt 3B No-Action

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 44: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Harlan County Lake Levels

(Republican River Source Option 3B)

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Baseline Climate Harlan County Content (AF)

Alt 3B No-Action

Harlan County levels slightly lower for most years.

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 45: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

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Baseline Climate FCID Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 3A Alt 3B

FCID Diversions

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 46: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

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Baseline Climate FCID Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 3A Alt 3B

FCID Diversions

FCID diversions higher for most years by a few thousand acre-feet. Slightly higher diversions for 3B (Republican River) than 3A (Frenchman Creek)

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 47: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

NBID Diversions

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Baseline Climate NBID (w/o Courtland Canal) Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 3A Alt 3B

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 48: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

NBID Diversions

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Baseline Climate NBID (w/o Courtland Canal) Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 3A Alt 3B

NBID diversions unchanged or lower for most years by a few thousand acre-feet. Slightly lower diversions for 3B (Republican River) than 3A (Frenchman Creek)

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 49: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

No Action 3A – Frenchman Pumpback

3B – Republican River Pumpback

Compact Call Years 23 23 23

Pump-back diversions

NA ~3,200 af for Non-Compact Call Years

~5,300 af for Non-Compact Call Years

Swanson Lake Levels No Action Baseline ~7,000 af Higher ~10,000 af Higher

Harlan Lake Levels No Action Baseline Slightly Lower Slightly Lower

FCID Diversions No Action Baseline A few thousand af higher

A few thousand af higher

NBID Diversions* No Action Baseline A few thousand af lower

A few thousand af lower

Cost NA $72 Million $164 Million

* Not including Nebraska Courtland Canal

Evaluation Metrics

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 50: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• New reservoirs located below Harlan County Lake

• Provide an alternative supply source for NBID, allowing Harlan County Lake to stay more full

• Could reduce occurrence of Water Short Years • Potential tool for Compact Compliance • Potential recreation benefits for both new

reservoir and Harlan County Lake • Locations above and below Guide Rock

Diversion Dam considered

Downstream Exchange for Harlan County Lake

Page 51: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Source: USBR Tech Memo No. RRB-8130-BSA-2014-1

Downstream Exchange for Harlan County Lake

Page 52: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Source: USBR Tech Memo No. RRB-8130-BSA-2014-1

Franklin Canal

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 53: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• New storage of 5,000 af

• Allowed to store water during non-irrigation season for Non-Compact Call Years

• Pumping plant required to allow for Franklin Canal connection (up to 11.1 cfs)

• Outlet to Creek would have capacity over 400 cfs

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 54: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• Number of Compact Call Years

• Franklin Canal Diversions/Releases from Thompson Creek Reservoir

• Thompson Creek Reservoir Levels

• Harlan County Lake Storage Levels

• NBID Irrigation Diversions (w/o Courtland Canal)

• FCID Irrigation Diversions

• Courtland Canal Flows (River Diversion and State Line)

• Guide Rock Flows

• Cost*

Evaluation Metrics

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 55: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Compact Call Years

• 23 Compact Call Years for No Action • 23 Compact Call Years for Thompson

Creek Dam Alternative

Compact Call Years may switch, but total number unchanged

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 56: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Franklin Canal Diversions

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Baseline Climate Franklin Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 5 Total Diversions Alt 5 Diversions from HCL Alt 5 From TCR

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 57: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Franklin Canal Diversions

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20

22

20

23

20

24

20

25

20

26

20

27

20

28

20

29

20

30

20

31

20

32

20

33

20

34

20

35

20

36

20

37

20

38

20

39

20

40

20

41

20

42

20

43

20

44

20

45

20

46

20

47

20

48

20

49

20

50

20

51

20

52

20

53

20

54

20

55

20

56

20

57

20

58

20

59

20

60

Baseline Climate Franklin Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 5 Total Diversions Alt 5 Diversions from HCL Alt 5 From TCR

Thompson Creek Dam

Total Franklin Canal Diversions increase. Franklin Canal diversions from Harlan County slightly decrease. Franklin Canal diversions from Thompson Creek Reservoir of around 550 to 2,000 af/year.

Page 58: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Thompson Creek Reservoir Levels

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1/1/2011 1/1/2016 1/1/2021 1/1/2026 1/1/2031 1/1/2036 1/1/2041 1/1/2046 1/1/2051 1/1/2056

Baseline Climate Thompson Creek Reservoir Content (AF)

Alt 5

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 59: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Thompson Creek Reservoir Levels

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

1/1/2011 1/1/2016 1/1/2021 1/1/2026 1/1/2031 1/1/2036 1/1/2041 1/1/2046 1/1/2051 1/1/2056

Baseline Climate Thompson Creek Reservoir Content (AF)

Alt 5

Thompson Creek Reservoir levels often reach 5,000 af (conservation pool). Total storage capped at 7,167 af (USBR considered 9,300 af)

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 60: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Harlan County Lake Levels

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1/1/2011 1/1/2016 1/1/2021 1/1/2026 1/1/2031 1/1/2036 1/1/2041 1/1/2046 1/1/2051 1/1/2056

Baseline Climate Harlan County Content (AF)

Alt 5 No-Action

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 61: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Harlan County Lake Levels

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

1/1/2011 1/1/2016 1/1/2021 1/1/2026 1/1/2031 1/1/2036 1/1/2041 1/1/2046 1/1/2051 1/1/2056

Baseline Climate Harlan County Content (AF)

Alt 5 No-Action

Harlan County levels higher than baseline conditions by a few thousand acre-feet for many years – usually correspond to Thompson Creek Reservoir releases to Franklin Canal.

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 62: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Total NBID Diversions (w/o Courtland Canal)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

Baseline Climate NBID (w/o Courtland) Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 5

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 63: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Total NBID Diversions (w/o Courtland Canal)

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

Baseline Climate NBID (w/o Courtland) Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 5

Total NBID diversions usually slightly higher – by a few thousand af

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 64: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Total FCID Diversions

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

Baseline Climate FCID Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 5

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 65: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Total FCID Diversions

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

Baseline Climate FCID Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 5

Total FCID diversions basically unchanged

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 66: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Courtland Canal River Diversions

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

Baseline Climate Courtland Canal 0.7 Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 5

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 67: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Courtland Canal River Diversions

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

Baseline Climate Courtland Canal 0.7 Annual Diversions (AF)

No-Action Alt 5

Courtland Canal diversions from Republican River basically unchanged. Canal flows at state line also basically unchanged.

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 68: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Guide Rock Flows

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

Baseline Climate Guide Rock Gage Annual Flow (AF)

No-Action Alt 5

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 69: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Guide Rock Flows

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

Baseline Climate Guide Rock Gage Annual Flow (AF)

No-Action Alt 5

Guide Rock flows slightly less on average with new reservoir

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 70: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

No Action Alt 5 – Thompson Cr Dam

Compact Call Years 23 23

Total Franklin Canal Diversions Baseline Slight Increase

Thompson Creek Dam Releases to Franklin Canal

NA 550 af to about 2,000 af per year

Thompson Creek Reservoir Levels NA Varies – often 5,000 af

Harlan Lake Levels Baseline A few thousand af higher at times

NBID Diversions* Baseline Usually a few thousand af greater

FCID Diversions Baseline Basically unchanged

Courtland Canal Flows Baseline Basically unchanged

Guide Rock Flows Baseline Slight decrease

Cost NA $184 Milion

* Not including Nebraska Courtland Canal

Evaluation Metrics

Thompson Creek Dam

Page 71: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• Four configurations considered, with 10,000 af total diversions: o Culbertson Canal o Cambridge Canal o Franklin Canal o All three canals

• Divert flows during non-irrigation season (Sep. 16 – May 14), for Non-Compact Call Years

• Retiming of supplies – returns back to the river delayed, mitigate damages from high flows

Non-Irrigation Season Canal Recharge

Page 72: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Non-Irrigation Season Canal Recharge

Page 73: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• Full analysis of recharge alternative not completed due to modeling and time limitations – linkage with ground water model

• Preliminary results were, however, obtained for potential recharge diversions from the river system

Non-Irrigation Season Canal Recharge

Page 74: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061

Non-Irrigation Season

Baseline Climate Culbertson Recharge Diversions (AF)

Culbertson Canal Recharge Diversions

Non-Irrigation Season Canal Recharge

Page 75: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Cambridge Canal Recharge Diversions

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061

Non-Irrigation Season

Baseline Climate Cambridge Recharge Diversions (AF)

Non-Irrigation Season Canal Recharge

Page 76: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Franklin Canal Recharge Diversions

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061

Non-Irrigation Season

Baseline Climate Franklin Recharge Diversions (AF)

Non-Irrigation Season Canal Recharge

Page 77: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Culbertson, Cambridge, Franklin (Combined) Canal

Recharge Diversions

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059 2061

Non-Irrigation Season

Baseline Climate All 3 Recharge Diversions (AF)

Culb Canal Camb Canal Frank Canal Total

Non-Irrigation Season Canal Recharge

Page 78: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• Canals often able to divert close to 10,000 af limit during Non-Compact Call Years

• Culbertson Canal shows most variability – only Frenchman Creek as source

• Franklin Canal shows greatest consistency in recharge diversions for single canal configurations

• All three canals operating together consistently can divert near 10,000 af limit when allowed

Evaluation Metrics

Non-Irrigation Season Canal Recharge

Page 79: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• Under alternative considered, Swanson Pump-Back options could increase FCID supplies and Swanson Lake Levels, but with reduced Harlan County Lake levels and NBID supplies

• Different operations could be considered for Swanson Lake Pump-Back projects

• Larger pump-back diversions appear to be available

Summary Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Page 80: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• Thompson Creek Reservoir site could allow for greater Franklin Canal deliveries and higher Harlan County Lake levels

• Slight negative impact to Guide Rock flows possible

• Potential for larger storage capacity • Other sites (Beaver Creek) could have

different benefits (downstream of Guide Rock diversion)

Summary Downstream Exchange for Harlan County Lake

Page 81: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

• Culbertson, Cambridge, and Franklin Canals all have recharge potential for non-irrigation season diversions

• Consistent supplies of at least 10,000 af

• Additional modeling beneficial – connecting ground water model

Summary Non-Irrigation Season Recharge

Page 82: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Questions?

Page 83: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Costs

Alternative Description

Field Cost Noncontract2 Cost Construction Cost

1C: 25,000 AF Expansion of Lovewell Reservoir

$44,000,000 $15,000,000 $59,000,000

3A: Swanson Reservoir Augmentation – New Frenchman Creek Pipeline

$27,000,000 $9,000,000 $36,000,000

3B: Swanson Reservoir Augmentation – New Republican River Pipeline

$61,000,000 $21,000,000 $82,000,000

5A: New Thompson Creek Dam

$68,000,000 $24,000,000 $92,000,000

Page 84: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Swanson Reservoir Pump-Back

Compact Call Years

Overview of Nebraska Alternatives 2

01

1

20

13

20

15

20

17

20

19

20

21

20

23

20

25

20

27

20

29

20

31

20

33

20

35

20

37

20

39

20

41

20

43

20

45

20

47

20

49

20

51

20

53

20

55

20

57

20

59

Baseline Climate Compact Call Year Operations

No-Action Alt 3A Alt 3B Alt 5

Page 85: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Overview of Nebraska Alternatives

Courtland Canal Flows at State Line

Thompson Creek Dam

-10,000

10,000

30,000

50,000

70,000

90,000

110,000

130,000

150,000

2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 2023 2025 2027 2029 2031 2033 2035 2037 2039 2041 2043 2045 2047 2049 2051 2053 2055 2057 2059

Baseline Climate Courtland Canal @ Stateline Annual Diversions (AF)

KS Target No-Action Alt 5

Page 86: Republican River Basin Study...Dec 01, 2015  · Study Background Republican River Basin Study (RRBS) Goals (from MOA): •Protect future supply and demand in the Republican River

Thompson Creek Dam

Overview of Nebraska Alternatives