Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY COAL MARKET OUTLOOK IN THE APEC REGION Alejandro F....
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Transcript of Republic of the Philippines DEPARTMENT OF ENERGY COAL MARKET OUTLOOK IN THE APEC REGION Alejandro F....
Republic of the PhilippinesDEPARTMENT OF ENERGYDEPARTMENT OF ENERGY
COAL MARKET OUTLOOK
IN THE APEC REGION
Alejandro F. Oanes
Geothermal & Coal Resources Development Division
Energy Resource Development Bureau
OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION
I. Introduction
II. Current Coal Market Situation in APEC
III. Energy Outlook within APEC
IV. Coal Market Outlook for Major Players
V. Coal Price
VI. Conclusion
THE BOGOR GOALS OF APEC
• Trade and investment liberalization that works for the elimination of tariff and non-tariff barriers to trade and investment
• Business facilitation to work for improved access to trade information and aligned policy and business strategies for trade
• Economic and technical cooperation for capacity building to enable members to meet their economic potential
Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC)
Coal Proven Reserves, Million Tonsat end 2005
APEC Countries68%
Non-APEC Countries
32%
APEC Countries
75%
Non-APEC Countries
25%
Coal Production (million TOE)as of end 2005
Coal Consumption (million TOE)as of end 2005
APEC Countries
73%
Non-APEC Countries
27%
CURRENT COAL MARKET
SITUATION IN APEC
Australia13%
China19%
Indonesia1%
Russia26%
USA39%
Others1% Canada
1%
APEC Coal Reserves as of end 2005
615.309 Million Tons
Australia9%
China51%Indonesia
4%
Russia6%
USA26%
Vietnam1%
Others1%
Canada2%
APEC Coal Production2,175 MTOE
APEC Coal Production
as of end 2005
China50%
USA27%
Australia2%
Japan6%
Russia5%
Indonesia1%
South Korea3%
Canada2%
Chinese Taipei2%
Thailand1% Others
1%
APEC Coal Consumption2,133.7 MTOE
APEC Coal Consumptionas of end 2005
Net coal
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
Australia
Indonesia
China
Russia
Canada
New
Zealand
United S
tates
Peru
Mexico
Chile
Philippines
Thailand
Malaysia
Hongkong
Chinese T
aipei
S. K
orea
Japan
Mil
lio
n T
on
s O
il E
qu
iva
len
t (M
TO
E)
Net Coal as of end 2005
ENERGY OUTLOOK
WITHIN APEC
Source: Asia Pacific Energy Research Center (2005)
Primary Energy Supply Outlook 2002-2020
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
Coal Oil Gas Nuclear Hydro Others
1999 2005 2010 2015 2020
MT
OE
Source: Asia Pacific Energy Center 2002
COAL MARKET OUTLOOK
FOR MAJOR PLAYERS
Coal Consumption Forecast to 2030
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
United States Canada Japan South Korea Australia/NewZealand
Russia China
Milli
on
Sh
ort
To
ns
2003 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Source: Reference Case Projections, InternationalEenergy Outlook 2006, EIA
AVERAGE PRICE PER METRIC TON (C & F)TO THE PHILPPINES
0
20
40
60
80
100
2003 2004 2005 2006
YEAR
PR
ICE
(U
S$
) Australia
China
Indonesia
South Africa
Vietnam
Source: Philippine Department of Energy
Panian Pit, Semirara Mining Corporation, Philippines
TERIMA KASIHTERIMA KASIHSalamat Po!
Thank You!