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CE 081 735

Carnevale, Anthony P.Help Wanted...College Required. ETS Leadership 2000 Series.Educational Testing Service, Princeton, NJ.2001-01-0061p.; From the Business-Education Partnerships Conference(Chicago, IL, January 8-9, 2001). Produced with Donna M.Desrochers, Richard A. Fry, and Stephen R. Rose, EducationalTesting Service, Office of Public Leadership.For full text:http://www.ets.org/research/dload/HelpWanted.pdf.Numerical/Quantitative Data (110)MF01/PC03 Plus Postage.Academic Achievement; Access to Education; Asian Americans;Blacks; Career Development; College Graduates; ComparativeAnalysis; Credentials; Degrees (Academic); *Education WorkRelationship; Educational Attainment; Educational Benefits;Educational Demand; *Educational Needs; *Educational StatusComparison; Employed Women; Employment Level; EmploymentOpportunities; *Employment Patterns; Employment Practices;*Employment Qualifications; High School Graduates; HighSchools; Hispanic Americans; Human Capital; Influences; JobSkills; Needs Assessment; Occupations; Outcomes ofEducation; Postsecondary Education; Relevance (Education);*Salary Wage Differentials; Skilled Occupations; SocialCapital; Socioeconomic Status; Student Characteristics;Trend Analysis; Unskilled Occupations; Whites

By the time today's eighth graders reach age 28-29,approximately 66% will have had some kind of postsecondary education ortraining. There has been .a dramatic upward shift in the education and skillrequirements for all occupations. Access to higher education has become thethreshold for career success. Elite managerial and professional jobs, whichare the highest-paid jobs, go primarily to people with bachelor's degrees.The good jobs held by crafts workers, technicians, clerical workers, andothers go mainly to people with some college but no degree. The less-skilled,lowest-paid jobs go to less-educated workers, many of whom are in transitionto more skilled jobs or are combining work and schooling. Although averageearnings for women are still lower than average earnings for men, thecorrelation between education and earnings has increased dramatically forboth genders in the past 2 decades. The jobs that employ the most skilledworkers are growing the fastest. The most skilled students are more likely toattain higher levels of education. A strong high school curriculum lowers thehurdles to college graduation at every socioeconomic status, especially forminorities. Social capital factors, such as parental expectations, also playa strong role in educational attainment. (Contains 37 figures.) (MN)

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FIGURE 1

By the Time Eighth Graders Reach Age 28-29, About 66% WillHave Had Some Kind of Post-High-School Education or Training

Out of 3.1 million eighth graders in 1988...

litiffilift+tftfrift+tftftMtirt+t+tftftfrift+t+MStStfriftWitfitt2.3 million (74%) graduated from high school in 1992.

tStfriftftft+lift+tflitti'Mtftfttiftftftft+t+t+At graduation, only 1.5 million (66% of those whograduated) aspired to a bachelor's degree...

tfttittfift+tft+t+t+tftfttiftf1.3 million high school graduates (56%) had theminimum academic preparation needed to enroll in college,,,

tft+fittittilit+tftiffirSt+frf1.2 million (52%) took the SAT and/or ACT,,,

ttiftft+t+tfriStft+rift+t+...and 1.1 million (47%) applied to a four-year institution.

riftMtft+ttittfliftilifBy 1994, only 0.9 million (40%) had enrolled in a four-year institution...

tfritilltittitftfttif...And about 0.8 million (35%) had enrolled in a less-than-four-year institution.

tftStfliftflitftfBy 2002, when they are age 28-29, about 1.2 million(39% of eighth-graders) will have completed some

post-high-school education or training but not a B.A....

trenttummtmtreftt...about 0.7 million (24% of eighth-graders)will have completed a B.A....

tftfliStftfttit+...and about 0.1 million (3% of eighth-graders)will have completed an advanced degree.

Of the 800,000 children that

did not graduate in 1992,

about 400,000 subsequently

completed high school by

returning or GED

certification.

Anthony P. Carnevale, Donna M. Desrochers, Richard A. Fry, & Stephen R. Rose, Educational Testing Service Office of

Public Leadership: Adapted from National Center for Education Statistics, Confronting the Odds (1997), Table 6 and

National Center for Education Statistics, Educational Attainment of 1980 High School Sophomores By 1992 (1995),

Table 2.4.A.

0703

Education, Occupations, and Careers

There has been a dramatic upward shift in the education and skill

requirements for all occupations.

Access to higher education has become the threshold for career

success.

COPYAVAILABL

FIGURE 2

The Occupational and Earnings HierarchyAverage earnings of prime-age workers in 1998

Male $26,466

Female $15,670

Male $22,812

Female $13,132

Managers and business professionals

High-tech

Education and health care professionals

Skilled blue collar and related

Clerical and related

Less-skilled blue collar

Sales and less-skilled service jobs

Doctors

Anthony P. Carnevale, Donna M. Desrochers, Richard A. Fry, & Stephen R. Rose, Educational Testing Service Office of Public

Leadership ETS analysis of Current Population Survey (March 1999).

CE-7:3) 5

FIGURE 3

Education andOccupation, 1959 -1997Percentage of total employment

More than two-thirds of workers in growing good-paying

occupations have postsecondary education:

_OfficeJObs- 40

30

20

Hospital/Classroom Jobs

High-Tech Jobs

Only one-third of workers in these declining or low-

paying occupations have postsecondary education:

Low-SkilledServices Jobs!

Factory Jobs

10

30

20

1959 1969 1979 1989 1995 1997

Anthony P. Carnevale, Donna M. Desrochers, Richard

A. Fry, & Stephen R. Rose, Educational Testing

Service Office of Public Leadership: ETS analysis of

1960 Census and Current Population Survey (March

1970-March 1998).

6

FIGURE 4

Most Jobs Now Require

Educational Attainment Beyond High School

Percentage of prime-age workers in each educational category

In 1973...

32% of all workers had not completed high school

12% had some college but no degree

40% had finished high school and stopped there

and 16% had a bachelor's or advanced degree

By contrast, in 1998...



18% had some college

9% had an associate's degree


Anthony P. Carnevale, Donna M. Desrochers, Richard A. Fry, & Stephen R. Rose, Educational Testing Service

Office of Public Leadership: ETS analysis of Current Population Survey (March 1994 & 1999).

FIGURE 5

Among Jobs at the Top of the Earnings Hierarchy,

Educational Requirements Have Increased Dramatically

Percentage of prime-age workers in each educational category

Among managers and business professionals, the percentage of workers with only a high school diploma fell by

close to 50% while the percentage of those with some college or a college degree rose substantially. In 1973...

In 1998...





N. 2% of all workers had not completed high school




High-tech workers followed a similar pattern. In 1973...




In 1998...



II 1% of all workers had not completed high school






Leadership: ETS analysis of Current Population Survey (March 1994 & 1999).

8

FIGURE 6

Education and Health Care Professions Have

Always Had High Educational RequirementsPercentage of prime-age workers in each educational category

In 1973...

EM 4% of all workers had not completed high school



In 1998...



7% had some college





Leadership: US analysis of Current Population Survey (March 1994 & 1999).

9

FIGURE 7

High School Dropouts Are Being Shut Out ofSkilled Labor, Clerical Work, and Related ProfessionsPercentage of prime-age workers in each educational category

Among skilled blue-collar and related professions, the percentage of workers who were high school dropouts fell

by more than two-thirds, while the percentage of workers with some college or a college degree more than doubled.

In 1973...





In 1998...






The same thing happened among clerical and related professions. In 1973...





In 1998...

ow 4% of all workers had not completed high school







ET 10

FIGURE 8

Even Among the Less-Skilled Professions,

Educational Attainment Is Becoming More ImportantPercentage of prime-age workers in each educational category

Among less-skilled blue-collar and related professions, the percentage of workers who were high school dropouts

fell by nearly half, while the percentage of workers with some college or a college degree tripled. In 1973...





In 1998...






The same was true among sales and less-skilled service professions. In 1973...




ow and 3% had a bachelor's or advanced degree

In 1998...








11

Earnings in Elite, Good, andLess-Skilled lobs

Elite managerial and professional jobs are the highest-paid

jobs and they go primarily to people with bachelor's degrees. Thirty

million of all prime-age workers are in these jobs. Average earnings

are $59,000 for men and $34,000 for women.

Good jobs held by crafts workers, technicians, clericals,

and others are well-paid jobs, paying an average of $37,000 for

men and $22,000 for women. They go mainly to people who have

some college but no degree.

Less-skilled jobs in retail, personal services, and other

minimally skilled occupations are the low-wage jobs, paying

an average of $25,000 for men and $13,000 for women. The

category includes machine operators, salesclerks, janitors, and

hotel workers. Few of these workers have college degrees; most

are in transition to more skilled jobs or are combining work and

schooling.

BEST COPY AVAILABLE

FIGURE 9

The Vast Majority of Elite and Good JobsAre Now Held by People with at Least Some CollegePercentage of prime-age workers in 1998

Of those workers in elite jobs...

26% have graduate degrees

37% have bachelor's degrees


14% have some college

12% have completed high school only

1% are high school dropouts

While among workers in good jobs...

mom 3% have graduate degrees





And among workers in less-skilled jobs...

1% have graduate degrees








Public Leadership: ETS analysis of Current Population Survey (March 1999).

SET 13

FIG

UR

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iffer

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UR

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ir S

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1998

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1617

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bet

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ajor

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opul

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in th

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ood

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1959

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heir

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re in

the

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aid

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alf R

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ateg

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Per

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1998

1959

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ampl

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sus.

21

Earnings and Educational Attainment

For both men and women, the degree to which earnings vary with

education has increased dramatically in the last two decades.

Earnings for men who do not have at least a bachelor's degree are

lower now than they were in 1979.

Earnings for women have increased across the board, but remain

lower than those for men.

BEST COPYAVAILABLE

FIG

UR

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4

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ning

s D

epen

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inm

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24

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E 1

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h S

choo

l

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Wor

kers

--r

s.-1

$60,

000

$40,

000

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000

1959

1979

1998

1959

1979

1998

Mal

e W

orke

rsF

emal

e W

orke

rs

Ant

hony

P. C

arne

vale

, Don

na M

. Des

roch

ers,

Ric

hard

A. F

ry, &

Ste

phen

R. R

ose,

Edu

catio

nal T

estin

g S

ervi

ce O

ffice

of P

ublic

Lea

ders

hip:

ET

S A

naly

sis

of C

urre

nt

Pop

ulat

ion

Sur

vey

(Mar

ch 1

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& 1

999)

and

Pub

lic U

se M

icro

data

Sam

ple,

196

0 C

ensu

s.

(E2_

,--i)

2930

$200,000

$180,000

$160,000

$140,000

$120,000

$100,000

$80,000

$60,000

$40,000

$20,000

$0

FIGURE 18

81% of Workers With Associate's Degrees (or Some College)

Earn the Same as Workers With Bachelor's DegreesShare of workers, by education and 1997 earnings

Workers With Bachelor's Degrees

Workers With Associate's Degrees

68% of workers with bachelor's

degrees earn more than $36,000,

compared with 49% of workers with

associate's degrees (or some

college)

US analysis of Current Population Survey (March 1998).

ET 31:

51% of workers with associate's

degrees (or some college) earn less

than $36,000, compared with 32%of workers with bachelor's degrees

FIG

UR

E 1

9

Am

ong

All

Gro

upsA

nd M

ost N

otab

ly A

mon

g A

fric

an A

mer

ican

sT

he H

igh

Sch

ool D

ropo

ut R

ate

Has

Dro

pped

Dra

mat

ical

lyP

erce

ntag

e of

prim

e-ag

e w

orke

rs (

30-5

9 ye

ars

old)

60%

40%

20%

His

pani

cs

Bla

cks

Whi

tes

60%

40%

20%

00

1959

1979

1998

Mal

e W

orke

rs

1959

1979

1998

Fem

ale

Wor

kers

Ant

hony

P. C

arne

vale

, Don

na M

. Des

roch

ers,

Ric

hard

A. F

ry, &

Ste

phen

R. R

ose,

Edu

catio

nal T

estin

g S

ervi

ce O

ffice

of P

ublic

Lea

ders

hip:

ET

S A

naly

sis

of C

urre

nt

Pop

ulat

ion

Sur

vey

(Mar

ch 1

980

& 1

999)

and

Pub

lic U

se M

icro

data

Sam

ple,

196

0 C

ensu

s.

ES

32

33

FIG

UR

E 2

0

For

Whi

tes

and

for

His

pani

c W

omen

, The

Per

cent

ages

of W

orke

rs

Who

End

The

ir S

choo

ling

with

a H

igh

Sch

ool D

iplo

ma

Has

Dro

pped

As

Wel

lP

erce

ntag

e of

prim

e-ag

e w

orke

rs (

30-5

9 ye

ars

old)

60%

60%

40%

Bla

cks

Whi

tes

His

pani

cs

40%

20%

20%

00

1959

1979

1998

1959

1979

1998

Mal

e W

orke

rsF

emal

e W

orke

rs

Ant

hony

P. C

arne

vale

, Don

na M

. Des

roch

ers,

Ric

hard

A. F

ry, &

Ste

phen

R. R

ose,

Edu

catio

nal T

estin

g S

ervi

ce O

ffice

of P

ublic

Lea

ders

hip:

ET

S A

naly

sis

of C

urre

nt

Pop

ulat

ion

Sur

vey

(Mar

ch 1

980

& 1

999)

and

Pub

lic U

se M

icro

data

Sam

ple,

196

0 C

ensu

s.

3 5

34

FIG

UR

E 2

1

For

All

Gro

ups,

The

Mos

t Dra

mat

ic G

ains

Are

in th

e

Sha

res

of W

orke

rs W

ho H

ave

at L

east

Som

e C

olle

ge...

Per

cent

age

of p

rime-

age

wor

kers

(30

-59

year

s ol

d)

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

Bla

cks

Whi

tes

His

pani

cs20

%

00

1959

1979

1998

Mal

e W

orke

rs

1959

1979

1998

Fem

ale

Wor

kers

Ant

hony

P. C

arne

vale

, Don

na M

. Des

roch

ers,

Ric

hard

A. F

ry, &

Ste

phen

R. R

ose,

Edu

catio

nal T

estin

g S

ervi

ce O

ffice

of P

ublic

Lea

ders

hip:

ET

S A

naly

sis

of C

urre

nt

Pop

ulat

ion

Sur

vey

(Mar

ch 1

980

& 1

999)

and

Pub

lic U

se M

icro

data

Sam

ple,

196

0 C

ensu

s.

ET

3637

FIG

UR

E 2

2

...F

ollo

wed

Clo

sely

by

the

Sha

res

of W

orke

rs W

ho C

ompl

ete

a C

olle

ge D

egre

eP

erce

ntag

e of

prim

e-ag

e w

orke

rs (

30-5

9 ye

ars

old)

60%

60%

40%

40%

Whi

tes

20%

20%

Bla

cks

His

pani

cs

00

1959

1979

1998

1959

1979

1998

Mal

e W

orke

rsF

emal

e W

orke

rs

Ant

hony

P. C

arne

vale

, Don

na M

. Des

roch

ers,

Ric

hard

A. F

ry, &

Ste

phen

R. R

ose,

Edu

catio

nal T

estin

g S

ervi

ce O

ffice

of P

ublic

Lea

ders

hip:

ET

S A

naly

sis

of C

urre

nt

Pop

ulat

ion

Sur

vey

(Mar

ch 1

980

& 1

999)

and

Pub

lic U

se M

icro

data

Sam

ple,

196

0 C

ensu

s.

3339

FIG

UR

E 2

3

All

Gro

ups

Hav

e A

lso

Incr

ease

d T

heir

Rat

e of

Atta

inin

g A

dvan

ced

Deg

rees

,B

ut th

e P

erce

ntag

e of

Wor

kers

Who

Do

So

Is S

till L

owP

erce

ntag

e of

prim

e-ag

e w

orke

rs (

30-5

9 ye

ars

old)

60%

60%

40%

40%

20%

20%

Whi

tes

Bla

cks

His

pani

cs0

0

1959

1979

1998

1959

1979

1998

Mal

e W

orke

rsF

emal

e W

orke

rs

Ant

hony

P. C

arne

vale

, Don

na M

. Des

roch

ers,

Ric

hard

A. F

ry, &

Ste

phen

R. R

ose,

Edu

catio

nal T

estin

g S

ervi

ce O

ffice

of P

ublic

Lea

ders

hip:

ET

S A

naly

sis

of C

urre

nt

Pop

ulat

ion

Sur

vey

(Mar

ch 1

980

& 1

999)

and

Pub

lic U

se M

icro

data

Sam

ple,

196

0 C

ensu

s.

ET

4041

FIGURE 24

Among Hispanic Adults, U.S.-Born Tend to be BetterEducated than Foreign-Born

Non-HispanicWhite Adults

U.S.-Born

Hispanic Adults

Foreign-BornHispanic Adults

Non-HispanicWhite Adults

U.S.-Born

Hispanic Adults

Foreign-BornHispanic Adults

22%

47%

47%

63%

78%

93%

Finished

High School

Attended

College


Public Leadership: ETS analysis of Current Population Survey (April 1998).

(f342

FIG

UR

E 2

5

Bot

h E

duca

tiona

l Cre

dent

ials

and

Ski

ll Le

vels

Affe

ct E

arni

ngs

Ave

rage

ann

ual e

arni

ngs

of y

ear-

roun

d w

orke

rs a

ge 1

6-64

in 1

998

dolla

rs

Whe

n S

kill

Leve

l Is.

..

Min

imal

$80,

000

$60,

000

$40,

000

$20,

000

Bas

icC

ompe

tent

Adv

ance

d/S

uper

ior

Mal

e W

orke

rs

Pos

tgra

duat

e W

ork

Bac

helo

r's D

egre

e

Som

e C

olle

ge/

AA

Deg

ree

Hig

h S

choo

l

Dip

lom

a

Fai

led

to F

inis

h

Hig

h S

choo

l

Whe

n S

kill

Leve

l Is.

..

Min

imal

Bas

icC

ompe

tent

Adv

ance

d/S

uper

ior

Fem

ale

Wor

kers

$60,

000

$40,

000

0

Ant

hony

P. C

arne

vale

, Don

na M

. Des

roch

ers,

Ric

hard

A. F

ry, &

Ste

phen

R. R

ose,

Edu

catio

nal T

estin

g S

ervi

ce O

ffice

of P

ublic

Lea

ders

hip:

ET

S a

naly

sis

of N

atio

nal A

dult

Lite

racy

Sur

vey

(199

2). D

ata

conv

erte

d to

199

8 do

llars

usi

ng C

PI-

U. M

issi

ng g

raph

seg

men

ts a

re o

nes

in w

hich

sam

ple

size

is to

o sm

all t

o pr

ovid

e a

relia

ble

estim

ate.

4 3

(044

The Growing Demand for

College-Level Skills Through 2008

The jobs that employ the most skilled workers

are growing the fastest.

These jobs are also the ones that pay the most.

BEST COPY AVAILABLE

FIG

UR

E 2

6

The

Job

s T

hat E

mpl

oy th

e M

ost S

kille

d W

orke

rs A

re G

row

ing

the

Fas

test

...

Ski

ll Le

vel

Mill

ions

of J

obs

1998

2008

New

Job

s 19

98-2

008

Fas

test

Gro

win

g O

ccup

atio

ns

Leve

l 1: M

inim

al S

kills

17.1

-'19.

01.

9 m

illio

nJa

nito

rs, c

lean

ers,

mai

ds, a

nd b

uild

ing

serv

ice

wor

kers

(Dro

pout

)G

roun

dske

eper

s, g

arde

ners

, nur

sery

wor

kers

Han

d pa

cker

s an

d pa

ckag

ers

Veh

icle

was

hers

and

equ

ipm

ent c

lean

ers

Leve

l 2: B

asic

Ski

lls34

.738

.94.

3 m

illio

nE

l=C

ashi

ers

(Bel

ow-a

vera

ge

high

sch

ool g

radu

ate)

Tru

ck d

river

s

Nur

sing

aid

es, o

rder

lies,

atte

ndan

ts

Coo

ks

Hea

lth a

ides

, exc

ept n

ursi

ng

Leve

l 3: C

ompe

tent

Ski

lls52

.660

.07.

3 m

illio

nS

ales

wor

kers

(Som

e po

stse

cond

ary)

Gen

eral

offi

ce c

lerk

s

Reg

iste

red

nurs

es

Per

sona

l car

e an

d ho

me

heal

th a

ides

Cor

rect

iona

l ins

titut

ion

offic

ers

Leve

l 4/5

: Adv

ance

d/36

.2-4

3.0

6.8

mill

ion

Com

pute

r sy

stem

ana

lyst

s an

d sc

ient

ists

Sup

erio

r S

kills

Gen

eral

man

ager

s, to

p ex

ecut

ives

, and

oth

er m

anag

ers

(Bac

helo

r's d

egre

e or

mor

e)0

5 m

ill.

10 m

ill.

Soc

ial a

nd r

ecre

atio

n w

orke

rs

Tea

cher

s, s

econ

dary

sch

ool

Com

pute

r pr

ogra

mm

ers

Ant

hony

P. C

arne

vale

, Don

na M

. Des

roch

ers,

Ric

hard

A. F

ty, &

Ste

phen

R. R

ose,

Edu

catio

nal T

estin

g S

ervi

ce O

ffice

of P

ublic

Lea

ders

hip:

ET

S A

naly

sis

of N

atio

nal A

dult

Lite

racy

Sur

vey

(199

2); B

urea

u of

Lab

or S

tatis

tics

Occ

upat

iona

l Pro

ject

ions

(19

98-2

008)

.

4 6

ET

47

FIG

UR

E 2

7

...A

nd P

ayin

g th

e M

ost

Ann

ual e

arni

ngs

of y

ear-

roun

d w

orke

rs in

199

8 1998

Ann

ual E

arni

ngs

Ski

ll Le

vel

Men

Wom

en

Leve

l 1: M

inim

al S

kills

$22,

800

$15,

800

(Dro

pout

)

Leve

l 2: B

asic

Ski

lls$3

0,60

0$1

9,50

0

(Bel

ow-a

vera

ge h

igh

scho

ol g

radu

ate)

Leve

l 3: C

ompe

tent

Ski

lls$3

8,20

0$2

3,70

0

(Som

e po

stse

cond

ary)

Leve

l 4/5

: Adv

ance

d/ S

uper

ior

Ski

lls$5

3,10

0$3

3,10

0

(Bac

helo

r's d

egre

e or

mor

e)

Ant

hony

P. C

arne

vale

, Don

na M

. Des

roch

ers,

Ric

hard

A. F

ry, &

Ste

phen

R. R

ose,

Edu

catio

nal T

estin

g S

ervi

ce O

ffice

of P

ublic

Lea

ders

hip:

ET

S A

naly

sis

of N

atio

nal A

dult

Lite

racy

Sur

vey

(199

2). D

ata

conv

erte

d to

199

8 do

llars

usi

ng C

PI-

U.

ET

48

49

FIGURE 28

Moving Up the LadderThe notion that the U.S. economy is producing too many low-wage service jobs is often

overstated. Low-skilled, low-earnings occupations employ large proportions of young workers

who eventually complete their education and move into higher-skilled, higher-paying jobs.

MedianTypical Less than Age 25 AnnualSkill Level Occupation Age 25 or Greater Earnings*

Basic Handlers, equipment cleaners, helpers, and laborers 34.5% 65.5% $20,000

Basic Services, except protective and household 31.6% 68.4% $16,000

Competent Sales 25.4% 74.6% $30,000

Basic Private households 23.6% 76.4% $12,000

Basic Farming, forestry, and fishing 22.9% 77.1% $20,000

Competent Administrative support, including clerical 18.0% 82.0% $24,000

Basic Machine operators, assemblers, and inspectors 15.1% 84.9% $24,000

Competent Protective support 15.1% 84.9% $35,000

Competent Technicians and related support 11.9% 88.1% $34,325

Basic/Competent Precision production, craft, and repair 10.8% 89.2% $30,000

Basic Transportation and material moving 10.7% 89.3% $29,000

Advanced Professional specialty 7.0% 93.0% $42,000

Competent Executive, administrative, and managers 4.7% 95.3% $42,000

* Includes only full-time, year-round workers.


Public Leadership: ETS analysis of National Adult Literacy Survey (1992); Current Population Survey (March 1999).

(E350

1

-I 4. . - II - . S

1

BEST COPY AVAILABLE

FIGURE 29

The Most Skilled Students AreMore Likely to Attain Higher Levels of Education...Educational attainment by 1992 (age 27-28)

Among students whose test scores were in the top quartile of their high school senior class:

Less than 1% dropped out of high school

27% earned only a high school diploma

5% earned a vocational certificate

8% earned an associate's degree

12% earned an advanced degree

49% earned a bachelor's degree

Among students whose test scores were in the third quartile of their high school senior class:3% dropped out of high school




im 3% earned an advanced degree


Among students whose test scores were in the second quartile of their high school senior class:

6% dropped out of high school






Among students whose test scores were in the bottom quartile of their high school senior class:




i 3% earned a bachelor's degree

Less than 1% earned an advanced degree



Leadership: ETS analysis of High School and Beyond 1980 Sophomore Cohort, 1980-1992.

52

FIGURE 30

...And This is True for Hispanic Students...Educational attainment by 1992 (age 27-28)

Among Hispanic students whose test scores were in the top quartile of theirhigh school senior class:







Among Hispanic students whose test scores were in the third quartile of theirhigh school senior class:







Among Hispanic students whose test scores were in the second quartile of theirhigh school senior class:







Among Hispanic students whose test scores were in the bottom quartile of theirhigh school senior class:









53

FIGURE 31

...And Black Students...Educational attainment by 1992 (age 27-28)

Among Black students whose test scores were in the top quartile of theirhigh school senior class:







Among Black students whose test scores were in the third quartile of theirhigh school senior class:






Imo 3% earned an advanced degree

Among Black students whose test scores were in the second quartile of theirhigh school senior class:







Among Black students whose test scores were in the bottom quartile of theirhigh school senior class:



on 4% earned an associate's degree






ES54

FIGURE 32

...And Asian and Other Students...Educational attainment by 1992 (age 27-28)

Among Asian and other students whose test scores were in the top quartile of theirhigh school senior class:







Among Asian and other students whose test scores were in the third quartile of theirhigh school senior class:

mi. 4% dropped out of high school






Among Asian and other students whose test scores were in the second quartile of theirhigh school senior class:

Em 5% dropped out of high school






Among Asian and other students whose test scores were in the bottom quartile of theirhigh school senior class:









ET 55

FIGURE 33

...And White StudentsEducational attainment by 1992 (age 27-28)

Among White students whose test scores were in the top quartile of theirhigh school senior class:







Among White students whose test scores were in the third quartile of theirhigh school senior class:







Among White students whose test scores were in the second quartile of theirhigh school senior class:







Among White students whose test scores were in the bottom quartile of theirhigh school senior class:









56

I

go 4 '

I

'.

-

'. 9 '

-/I

. .

BEST COPY AVAILABLE

FIGURE 34

A Strong High School Curriculum Lowers the Hurdles to College

Graduation for Students at Every Socioeconomic Status...Percentage of students completing a bachelor's degree

With the "most rigorous" curriculum...

Highest SES 86% complete bachelor's degrees

79% complete bachelor's degrees



Lowest SES 62% complete bachelor's degrees

With a "challenging" curriculum...

Highest SES

Lowest SES

With a "less demanding" curriculum...

Highest SES

Lowest SES












Public Leadership: Adapted from Adelman, Clifford, U.S. Dept. of Education (1999). Answers in the Tool Box: Academic

Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and Bachelor's Degree Attainment.

58

FIGURE 35

...Especially for MinoritiesPercentage of students completing a bachelor's degree

Blacks

Strong Curriculum

All Students

73%

45%

Hispanics

79%Strong Curriculum

All Students 61%

Asians

89%Strong Curriculum

All Students 87%

Whites86%Strong Curriculum

All Students 75%

0 20 40 60 80 100

Anthony P. Carnevale, Donna M. Desrochers, Richard A. Fry, & Stephen R. Rose, Educational Testing Service Office

of Public Leadership: Adapted from Adelman, Clifford, U.S. Dept. of Education (1999). Answers in the Tool Box:

Academic Intensity, Attendance Patterns, and Bachelor's Degree Attainment.

ET 59

FIGURE 36

Parental Expectations Concerning EducationVary with Socioeconomic StatusPercentage of parents of 12th graders who expected at least a bachelor's degree

Lowest SES

Middle-Lowest

Middle-Upper

Highest SES


of Public Leadership: Adapted from Cabrera & La Nasa Center for Study of Higher Education, Pennsylvania State

University.

60

FIGURE 37

Parenting Factors that AffectCollege-Going of At-Risk Students

More at-risk students whose parents expected them to get a B.A. degree or higher went to college...

78%

...than did those whose parents expected them to get some postsecondary education...

56%

...or those whose parents expected them to earn a high school diploma or less.

25%

More at-risk students whose parents discussed school very frequently with them enrolled in college...

82%

...than did those whose parents' school discussions with them were only moderately frequent...68%

...or those whose parents had few or no school discussions with them.55%


of Public Leadership: Adapted from National Center for Education Statistics, Confronting the Odds (1997), Table 15.

61

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