Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios: A Trans-Disciplinary Approach to Agricultural Model Inter-

comparison, Improvement and Climate Impact Assessment

Roberto Valdivia1, John Antle1, Lieven Claessens2, Gerald Nelson3, Cynthia Rosenzweig4, Alex Ruane4, and Joost Vervoort5

1Oregon State University; 2International Crops Research Institute for the Semi-Arid Tropics, ICRISAT; 3Professor Emeritus, University of Illinois, Urbana Champaign; 4NASA Goddard Institute for Space

Studies; 5University of Oxford/CCAFS

1AAEA MeetingMinneapolis, MN July 28, 2014

The global change research community has recognized that new pathway and scenario concepts are needed to implement impact and vulnerability assessment◦ Earlier version: “Special Report on Emissions Scenarios” (SRES) linked emissions

to socio-economic development narratives and assumptions

IPCC process for new “pathway” concepts◦ RCPs: Representative Concentration Pathways -> Global climate models◦ SSPs: Shared Socio-Economic Pathways -> impact and vulnerability assessment

However, we need pathways specific to the agricultural sector:◦ AgMIP: Developing and implementing Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios (RAPS) – Cross cutting theme

Pathways and Scenarios

RCPs, SSPs and RAPs

Representative Ag Pathways• economic & social

development narratives• soil & water resource trends• agricultural technology trends• prices and costs of production• ag, mitigation & other policy

Linking Agriculture-Specific Pathways to SSPs:Representative Agricultural Pathways (RAPs)

Global RAPs: Global Economic Models and other non-modeled global socio-economic conditions:◦ GDP, population & policy and trade, etc

Regional RAPs: Allow us to include key drivers are likely to affect future bio-physical and socio-economic conditions: ◦ ag productivity trends, land use, policy,

regional development◦ farm size, system-specific productivity &

management, infrastructure, etc

-> Hierarchical structure (nested approach)

. SSPs: Framework for development of sectoral (e.g. agricultural) global and regional scenarios.

AgMIP:Developing and implementing Representative Agricultural Pathways and Scenarios (RAPS)

Yield or value

time current future

Q1

Q3Q2

Yield or value

time current future

Q1

Q3

Q2

Q1: What is the sensitivity of current agricultural production systems to climate change? This question addresses the isolated impacts of climate changes assuming that the production system does not change from its current state. Q2: What is the impact of climate change on future agricultural production systems? Assessment of climate impacts on the future production system, which will differ from the current production system due to development in the agricultural sectorQ3: What are the benefits of climate change adaptations? Assessment of the benefits of potential adaptation options in the future production system

RAPS

Why do we need RAPs? : The AgMIP RIA Core Research Questions:

Development of Representative Agricultural Pathways

RAPs narratives provide a framework in which qualitative and quantitative information can be translated into model

parameters

• These “pathways” are combinations of bio-physical, economic, technology and policy drivers that represent a plausible range of possible futures.

• They are not meant to be predictions, but rather provide researchers with a range of plausible scenarios that can be used to simulate possible future outcomes in a consistent and transparent way.

Need a Multi-disciplinary team!

First meeting:1. Start with a “Business as usual” (BAU) RAP2. Team members identify key parameters that will likely

be affected by higher level pathways and draft RAP narrative

3. Team members are assigned variables for research4. Team members conduct research –use of templates for

reporting and supporting documentation5. Templates can be distributed to experts for feedback

Second meeting:5. Team members report findings and discuss storylines for

each variable6. BAU RAP is finalized7. Additional RAPs are identified8. Process similar to BAU is carried out9. Additional background research

Create Additional RAPsRAPs distributed to stakeholders and outside experts

Modelers develop scenarios

RAPs Development Process

Tools for RAPs development:

- DevRAP matrix and software: Construct RAPs narratives and quantify scenarios parameters for TOA-MD. Template to parameterize TOA-MD and document model scenarios

- Reporting Templates: Help team members document background information specific to drivers under research

- Pathways summary trends table: Helps to visually inform users about trends and magnitudes of key driver changes included in RAP narratives

AgMIP Regional Teams – RAPS development

Sub-Saharan Africa South Asia

AgMIP Regional Teams – RAPS development

• Period of analysis: Mid-century

• Higher level Pathways: SSP2 No Global RAPs. Data from IMPACT model

(productivity and price trends) Some teams have used information from CCAFS

multi-country scenarios• Types of RAPs : Business as Usual (BAU)

Pessimistic Optimistic

Example: RAPs development: CLIP: Zimbabwe

Indicators Pessimistic RAP1.1 If there is no change of mindset and way of doing business, food security situation will continue to worsen

Optimistic RAP 1.2 Favorable conditions for private and public investments in the agricultural sector will be created

Degradation +++ Extractive land use - - Investments in NRM, secure ownership

Size of cultivated land

- - Lack of labor, limited investment options

- - Intensified production on less land

Herd size - - Shift towards goats + + Improved feed and management

Input prices + + + Lack of local manufacturing and raw material

+ + More players in processing industry against higher demand for inputs

Input use - - - Lack of affordability and returns + + Market incentives, investment security, appropriate support

Crop income - - - Low local production and competition with cheap imports

++ Increased income from higher production

Livestock income - - - Competition with cheap imports ++ High and unmet demand for livestock productsImproved quality production

Crop – livestock product imports

+ + + While national production is declining, the demand actually increases

+/- Large potential to produce vs climatic risks (droughts, no national reserves)

Off-farm income - - - Alternative income options are also limited

- - High farm productivity will keep more people in agriculture

AgMIP Regional Research Teams RAPs Trends Table: SSA

BAU Pessimistic

AgMIP Regional Research Teams RAPs Trends Table: SA

Issues found in the process of developing RAPs:

Identification of indicators • Need a comprehensive list of indicators with

definitions

Data availability • Finding reliable data (e.g. trends) at regional

or local level, in particular for non-modeled activities

Agreement on trends direction and magnitude• Disciplinary bias• “predictions” vs “plausible projections”

Interaction with Stakeholders • Policy or personal agendas, non-scientific

description of RAPsUncertainty

• Productivity and price trends, production costs

Way forward

Revise current RAP narratives and corresponding model parameters

Develop more RAPs for the same region but also cover additional regions

Revise the RAPS development process (learning by doing!)

Link regional RAPs to Global RAPs How?Methodological issuesWith Global RAPS, regional RAPS developed by

AgMIP RRTsmay need to be revised.

RAPS for other regions (e.g. Latin America, East Asia, etc)

Thank You!

Reminder: Session 2089 A New Transdisciplinary Approach to Regional Integrated Assessment of Climate Impact and Adaptation in Africa and South AsiaTrack Session Int'lTuesday, July 29, 20144:30 pm – 6:00 pmHyatt Regency; Second Level

Acknowledgment:

Thanks to AgMIP ResearchTeams for providing theirRAPs information

www.agmip.org

DEVRAP MatrixResearch and Reporting template