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The Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement

and the Role of NATO

Written By Hasan Aygun

June 2016

Report No

06

Copyright© 2016 by Mediterranean Affairs

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Updated at June 1, 2016

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Summary

Introduction ................................................................................ 5

Israeli perspective ...................................................................... 7

Turkish perspective .................................................................... 8

History of the Turkish-Jewish relations ..................................... 8

Elements that brought the two countries back to negotiating

table .......................................................................................... 14

Consequences for third parties ................................................ 18

Russia ....................................................................................... 18

Cyprus ...................................................................................... 20

Egypt ........................................................................................ 20

Iran ........................................................................................... 21

NATO and the repercussions ................................................... 22

Conclusions .............................................................................. 24

References ................................................................................... 26

About the Authors ...................................................................... 29

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

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The Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement

and the Role of NATO

Hasan Aygun

Introduction

On May 4th, 2016, the news on the NATO's official website read

that, along with Qatar, Kuwait, Bahrain and Jordan, the North

Atlantic Council "has agreed to accept the request that an official

Israeli Mission be established at NATO headquarters." The news

continued to add that Israel had been a very active partner of the

Alliance as a member of NATO's Mediterranean Dialogue, established

in December 1994.1

The short statement may look insignificant to some, as it is a routine

step for partners to have representation within NATO, but in reality it

is the tip of an iceberg of often emotional and sensitive developments

involving the Eastern Mediterranean affairs.

As early as October 2007, Israel's Vice PM and Foreign Minister at

the time Tzipi Livni stated that Israel was committed to the NATO

Mediterranean Dialogue and that it was time to upgrade and formalize

1 NATO agrees Israel Mission to NATO. (May 04, 2016). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/4TgeRH

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

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the relations between Israel and NATO, broaden the scope of

cooperation and promote joint activity.2

Israel applied NATO for opening an office in its Headquarters back

in September 2011, and then Turkish Foreign Minister Ahmet

Davutoglu declared that his country blocked the attempt by veto

threat and the issue was never in the agenda of the Council.3

The timing of that application was ill-chosen, when tension between

Jerusalem and Ankara was still very high because of the Mavi Marmara

incident that happened the previous year. Turkey, initially also vetoed

Israel's participation in various NATO meetings and exercises, but

later in 2012 relaxed its position, allowing limited presence in selected

events. Nevertheless, the cooperation between NATO and Israel did

continue, particularly in areas of counter-terrorism. Turkey and Israel

used to be close allies in the Middle East and it is very important to

remember this when

considering the more recent

developments.

After five years of

objections, Turkey finally

agreed to lift its veto on

Israeli representation in

NATO. With a moderately

optimistic look, this could be

2 Livni address at Israel NATO Symposium. (October 22, 2007). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/DrmmJI 3 Turkiye'den Israil'e NATO Vetosu. (September 19, 2011). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/CQEsXx

Source: Global Research

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the beginning of a new set of relationships and new balance of power

in that region. For NATO, it will make business in the area easier,

forging cooperation to increase the potential of the Alliance to have

better access to partner's means and understanding of the region.

Israeli perspective

On May 4, 2016, at his weekly cabinet meeting, Prime Minister

Benjamin Netanyahu announced that Israel would "accept an

invitation from the NATO to open a permanent office at its Brussels

headquarters," a slight variation to NATO's version of the

development, but the noteworthy point was that he saw the move as a

significant upgrade for Israel's ties to NATO. Netanyahu said Israeli

diplomatic efforts paid off after many years and the move will enhance

Israel's security, and it was important to Israel's standing in the world.

He claimed that the countries of the world want to cooperate with

Israel because of his country's determined struggle against terrorism,

technological knowledge and intelligence deployment.4

Israel is not new to NATO partnership and has excellent relations

with most of NATO nations and armed forces. The only exception

was Turkey, with which the relations have followed a roller-coaster

ride, due to major disagreements on Palestinian issues, but also due to

strong personalities of leaders of both countries, passionate about

their views and opinions of each other.

4 Keinon, H. (May 4, 2016). Israel to open permanent office at NATO HQ, five years after Turkey blocked move. Jerusalem Post. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/a7ERt5

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

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However, on almost all occasions, also with the encouragement of

mutual friendly third parties, reason somewhat prevails and the two

countries turn back from the brink of confrontation to more normal

relations.

Turkish perspective

Turkish response to the development was much muted. The

Government did not make any official announcement, but unofficial

statements acknowledging it as part of confidence building measures

for normalization.5 Only some extreme religious groups and the

Felicity Party, which is not represented in the parliament, reacted

negatively, and blamed the Government for paving the way to "Israel's

membership to NATO"6 and its President Mustafa Kamalak warned

that Turks and Jews would fight against Muslims.7

History of the Turkish-Jewish relations

It is important to understand that Turks and Jews had historically

close relationship going as early to the establishment of the Ottoman

Empire. Apart from the presence of Krymchak – the Turkic speaking

Crimean Jews,8 who also survive today in Lithuania,9 the territory of

5 Yildiz, M. (May 9, 2016). Müyesser Yıldız yazdı: İsrail'in NATO'da ne işi var. ODA tv. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/b6NgAu 6 Gross, G. A. (May 4, 2016). Ya’alon: Turkey reset impossible while it hosts Hamas. Times of Israel. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/nDvBcI 7 Ozbay, A. (May 7, 2016). Mustafa Kamalak: Türk askeri ile İsrail bir olup Müslümanlara karşı savaşacak. Milli Gazete. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/rRVJ4B 8 Orientation-Krymcaks – Countries and Their Cultures. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/IjHjFq 9 The Karaims. Retrieved from https://goo.gl/9mmKdt

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the Empire hosted Jewish communities from Jerusalem to Bursa,

where the Etz ha-Hayyim Synagogue has been in use since 1324.10

Starting in the 14th

century, Jews fleeing

oppression from

Hungary, France, and

Sicily began to settle in

the Empire. In 1453,

Sultan Mehmet II

actively encouraged Jews

to settle in Ottoman

lands. After he conquered Constantinople, he issued a proclamation to

all Jews stating, "Who among you that is with me, may his God be

with him, let him ascend to Istanbul, the site of my imperial throne.

Let him dwell in the best of the land, each beneath his vine and

beneath his fig tree, with silver and with gold, with wealth and with

cattle. Let him dwell in the land, trade in it, and take possession of

it."11 Jews soon made up 10 per cent of Istanbul's population.

During the Spanish Inquisition, Ottoman Sultan Bayezid II sent an

armada to save the Sephardic Jews of Spain, as well as those from

Portugal, South Italy and Sicily. In 1492 he granted them permission

to seek refuge in the Ottoman Empire. Eventually, more than 100,000

10 Etz ha-Hayyim Synagogue. Center for Jewish History. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/xpsLS3 11 Ottoman Empire: A Safe Haven for Jewish Refugees (June 11, 2014). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/zOEtYC

Benjamin Netanyahu, Iraeli PM, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,

Turkish President

Source: Haaretz

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

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Jews settled in Istanbul, Thessaloniki, western cities of Anatolia and

other cities of the Balkans.12

The Jews brought many skills in enterprising and trade and became

an integral part of the society. Jews were preferred over the distrusted

Orthodox subjects of conquered lands and enjoyed more privileges

than the locals of the Balkans, practically until the decline and final

collapse of the Empire and had no problems with the establishment of

the Republic of Turkey.

Turkey remained mostly neutral during the World War II, but

through the efforts of some diplomats and deals, saved about 35,000

Jews from the Holocaust. With the establishment of Israel, about sixty

per cent of Jews chose to move there on a voluntary basis,

maintaining ties with Turkey. Today, Turkish Jews number around

77,000 in Israel.

Turkey became the first Muslim majority country to recognize Israel

in March 1949. Military, strategic, economic and diplomatic

cooperation between the two countries blossomed, the Israeli Air

Force was allowed to exercise in Turkish airspace and Israeli

companies were involved in modernizing projects of Turkish combat

jets and tanks. Major projects for selling Turkish water to Israel, "The

Peace Water Pipeline" of 1986 through offshore pipelines and high-

12 Avraham, R. (February 26, 2013). Jewish History: Medieval Jews Fleeing Persecution Take Refuge in Ottoman Turkish Empire. United with Israel. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/39I4cZ

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tech cooperation came to agenda several times, but mostly failed to be

realized for one reason or another.13

Relations were still smooth during the first years of Justice and

Development Party (AKP) majority and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan as

Turkish Prime Minister, between 2002 and 2008. In fact, trade,

military cooperation and tourism flourished even further. Islamist Al-

Qaeda terrorist attacks in 2003 against two Jewish Synagogues in

Istanbul that killed 24 and injured 300 united the two people more in

their condemning all sorts of terrorism.14

Just after that incident, PM Erdoğan was awarded the Medal of

Courage by the American Jewish Committee (AJC) during his visit to

the US in January 2004.15 Erdoğan went on to pay an official visit to

Israel in 2005 and offered to serve as a peace mediator between Israel

13 Yildiz, D. (June 6, 2014). International Water Transfer Projects of Turkey. Hidropolitic Accademy. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/50WUDI 14 Barkat, A., Stern, Y. and Melman, Y. (November 16, 2003). Attacks on Istanbul Synagogues Kill 24. Haaretz. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/mCFwuQ 15 Erdogan honored with medal of courage by AJC. (Jenuary 28, 2004). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/gUUn8J

Source: Gate Stone Institute

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

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and Syria, as well as Israel and Palestine.16

In early 2006, relations with Turkey were termed as "perfect" by the

Israeli Foreign Ministry, as a joint Israeli-Palestinian industrial park

was being developed under Turkey's aegis and in November 2007, the

Israeli President Shimon Peres and Palestinian Authority President

Mahmoud Abbas addressed the Turkish Parliament a day apart. Syrian

Foreign Ministry said that Turkey was also serving as a "channel of

communication" between Syria and Israel.17

Relations took a downturn during the second term of AKP and

ascend of Benjamin Netanyahu to Prime Ministry in Israel, particularly

with the 2008–2009 Gaza War; when the Turkish Government

strongly criticized Israel over heavy civilian sufferings and Israeli

Government accused Turkey for its support to Hamas.

At the World Economic Forum conference in Davos, Switzerland

in January 2009, Prime Minister Erdoğan criticized Israel's conduct in

Gaza and deaths of civilians in raids with very strong words.18

On 5 March 2009, the Israeli daily newspaper Haaretz reported that

secret talks were held to get the Israeli-Turkish relations back on track,

but without any success. On 11 October 2009, Turkey barred Israel

from the Anatolian Eagle military exercise and Israeli Prime Minister

16 Myre, G. (May 2, 2005). Turkish Leader Visits Israel, Restoring Friendly Ties. New York Times. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/gUUn8J 17 Israeli-turkish relations – World Heritage Encyclopedia. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/gAq19w 18 Bennhold, K. (January 29, 2009). Leaders of Turkey and Israel clash at Davos panel.

The New York Times. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/gHoa2Y. cited in Özerdem, A., and Özerdem, F. (2013). Human Security in Turkey: Challenges for the 21st Century. New York, NY: Routledge.

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Benjamin Netanyahu objected to Turkish mediation, accusing Turkey

for "not being an honest broker," between Israel and Syria.19

After Hamas leader Khaled Mashal paid a visit to Turkey in March

2010, Israel accused Turkey of cooperating with Hamas and Iran,

alleging that Hamas established a command post in Turkey and has

used it to oversee operations in the Middle East.20

The relations dipped further below when Israeli troops killed nine

Turkish civilian unarmed activists and wounded many more on 31

May 2010, during the raid on the ship Mavi Marmara, part of the

"Gaza Freedom Flotilla," a convoy of six ships carrying activists from

37 nations, along with food and materials of aid for Gaza with the aim

to break the Israeli embargo. Mavi Marmara was flying a Turkish flag

and the raid took place in the international waters of the

Mediterranean Sea. Very strong mutual accusations mounted the

tensions. and Prime Minister Erdoğan described the raid as "Israeli

state terrorism."21

Turkey demanded an apology, compensation and that embargo to

Gaza be lifted. Ambassadors were withdrawn, trade became static and

tourism dwindled. In September 2011, military agreements were

suspended and 16 defense contracts worth about 10 billion dollars

were frozen.

19 Israeli-Turkish Relations - Diplomatic and Political Relations. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/anWjCM 20 Gross, Y. A. (February 11, 2016).Ya’alon: Turkey reset impossible while it hosts Hamas. Times of Israel. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/x2hzF0 21 Booth, R. (May 31, 2010). Israeli attack on Gaza flotilla sparks international outrage. The Guardian. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/owgmnP

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

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Hillary Clinton wrote in her memoir "Hard Choices," that the then

Turkish Foreign Minister Davutoglu told her that Turkey came to the

brink of declaring war on Israel "After '9/11'-scale Attack."22

In March 2013 Israel officially apologized for Gaza Flotilla killings,

and promised to resolve the compensation issue, but refused to take a

step back in her Gaza policies.

In December 2015, due to necessity of cooperating against the ills

of the region, but also for economic and political mutual benefits,

Turkey and Israel began secret talks to restore diplomatic relations.23

Elements that brought the two countries back to

negotiating table

From the Turkish side, the main motivation is that the Government

needs allies for political, security and economic reasons.

Turkey is not content with how the Syrian crisis evolved and is

facing at home both ISIS and PKK terrorism. Turkish supported Free

Syrian Army is on the losing side and ISIS is lobbing missiles to Kilis,

a town only a few kilometers from the Syrian border. PKK terrorists

are finding refuge and supplies in Syria and Iraq, and disrupt life in

southeast Turkey, while PKK's kin PYD in Syria is recognized by the

US and other allies as a friendly force fighting ISIS.

Over 2.7 million Syrian refugees roam the country and many

terrorist elements hide among them.

22 Hillary Clinton: Turkish FM Considered War on Israel After '9/11'-scale Attack. (June 16, 2014). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/pVy4TU 23 Eichner, I. (December 17, 2015). Secret talks hint at Israeli-Turkish thaw. Y-Net News. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/G9l0OT

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The confrontation with Russia over the shooting of a Russian plane

over the Turkish airspace has not been resolved. Russia has deployed

S-300 and S-400 missiles to Syria and has hinted that any Turkish

plane crossing the border will be shot down, thus undermining

Turkish fight against mainly the ISIS.24

Furthermore, Turkey is heavily dependent on Russian gas (55% of

all imports); faced with ever growing demand; is desperate to diversify

suppliers, and Israeli gas is a fresh breeze in the region. Although still

a remote possibility, an Egyptian-Israeli-Cypriot-Greek gas pipeline,

bypassing Turkey would also be strategically unpleasant for Turkish

leadership. Turkey has been following the Israel, Cyprus and Greece

discussions on energy cooperation and will not wish to be left out.

Trade, tourism and technological cooperation are only a few of

numerous other benefits.25

Due to crisis in Iraq and Syria and now problems with Egypt,

Turkey needs land/sea access for exports to the Gulf countries and

Israel offers an alternative. Israel can offer weapons and UAV's

Turkey can use in its new urban terrorism challenge. Friendship with

Israel also wins friends in Washington, D.C.

So, Turkish President Recep T. Erdoğan's words, "Israel is in need

of a country like Turkey in the region. We have to admit that we also

need Israel"26 should not come as a surprise.

24 Alix Culbertson and Tom Batchelor. (November 25, 2015). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/CQ71z3 25 Ellinas, C. (February 28, 2016). Israel-Turkey rapprochement. In-Cyprus .Retrieved from http://goo.gl/nmt31I 26 Merkezi, H. (February 2, 2016). Erdoğan: Türkiye ile İsrail'in birbirine ihtiyacı var. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/X7VIHk

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On the Israeli side, Syrian regime-Iran-Hezbollah triangle and ISIS

presence in the region is too close for comfort. Given the threats of

Hezbollah and ISIS, Israel is determined to hold on to Golan Heights

and needs allies in the region. Turkish influence over Hamas may help.

To counter the Shia

threat from Iran, Syrian

regime, Hezbollah and

potentially Iraqi

extremists Israel needs

to reach to new

elements in its foreign

policy. Columnist Ben

Caspit from Al-Monitor claims that "promoting the emerging Israeli-

Sunni understandings are becoming a strategic cornerstone in Israel's

national security" and Turkish contribution to a new image of Israel

among Sunni front cannot be overlooked.27

Israel would therefore benefit from restoring ties with one of its few

Middle Eastern partners, particularly to balance Iran's grip over Syrian

regime and its big influence in Lebanon. Turkish friendship will also

make access to NATO cooperation for enhanced security options.

Economy is the other main motivation. Since 2012, Israel is trying

to develop the Leviathan gas field and export its new found gas, where

27 Caspit, B. (April 13, 2016). Is Israel forming an alliance with Egypt and Saudi Arabia? Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/5nVkDB

Source: Turkish Policy

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Turkey is the geographically nearest and most viable customer who

requires less investment in pipelines.28

A deal with Turkey would create interdependence and anchor the

two countries as allies and the first steps are already there to note.

Israeli company Edeltech and Turkish Zorlu Holding have signed a

$1.3 billion deal with Leviathan partners to build two new power

plants in Israel.29

In an interview Israeli Minister of Energy Yuval Steinitz said that

the two countries are very close to signing an agreement and resuming

diplomatic relationship, adding that up to 90% percent of the gaps

have been bridged. He added that "Turkey needs Israeli gas and Israel

needs Turkish market."30

Ankara would be consuming half of Leviathan's estimated reserves

of 29bn m3 from 2020, via a proposed pipeline to Turkey. As a second

phase, the gas can be shipped to Europe via Turkey.31

Also, Turkish energy company Turcas is setting up a buyer

consortium to ship Israeli gas to Europe via Turkey when the gas

reaches Turkey in the next four-five years.32

According to Israel's Consul General in Istanbul, the highest

ranking Israeli diplomat in Turkey, the Normalization Agreement

28 Caspit, B. (March 7, 2016). Why Israel needs Putin more than it needs Erdoğan. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/X9PtxL 29 Basboga, M. (May 5, 2016). Zorlu eyes jv in Israel. Natural Gas Europe. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/RiyIRQ 30 Wainer, D. and Benmeleh, Y. (May 5, 2016). Israel Minister Sees Solutions to Gas Impasse, Turkey Rift. Bloomberg. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/JpJv10 31 Basboga, M. (May 10, 2016). Turkey and Israel 'close to gas deal'. .Natural Gas Europe. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/qfcWGf 32 Erdil, M. (April 5, 2016). Dev Sirketler Israil Gazi icin el ele Verdi. Turkish daily Hurriyet. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/rhtzpm

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

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signature is very close. In an interview, he reiterated the determination

of his Government to move ahead and it was only a matter of some

weeks or a few months at most. Once the agreement is signed, Israel

will pay around $20 million as compensation to families of victims of

Gaza Flotilla incident and would allow Turkey to send humanitarian

assistance to Gaza via Ashdod Port, with the condition that Turkey

should use the Palestinian Authority and not Hamas as official

counterpart.33

Consequences for third parties

In the region Russia, Egypt, Iran and perhaps Cyprus would be

most interested in new Turkish-Israeli friendship.

Russia

The relations between Ankara and Moscow are all time low and

Putin would not be very happy if Turkey assures Israeli friendship at

this point and he has some cards up his sleeve. Israel feels like walking

on eggshells in its rapport with Russia as the latter provides Iran and

Syrian regime with arms, which have occasionally landed in the hands

of Hezbollah, such as S-22 missiles. Russia can also limit Israel's air

force freedom of action by enabling Syria with better weapon systems.

Israeli message to Putin is that there must be no "Syrian arrangement"

33 Ozer, V. (May 11, 2016). İsrail Başkonsolosu Cohen: Türkiye ile birlikte Suriye'ye operasyon yapabiliriz!. Turkish daily Milli Gazete. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/eprFo5

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19

that strengthens Iran and

Hezbollah. "Shiite terror

endangers the world,

including Russia, no

less than Sunni jihad

does."34

On the other hand,

Russia has no special

liking of Hezbollah and will tread carefully about Iran. While

maintaining Iran as a client, Russia would not like to see another

dominant power in the Middle East.35

For Russians, Israeli natural gas being exported to Turkey is also not

good news, as they are currently the main supplier for Turks and this

brings some leverage over relations with Ankara. Russia would prefer

that Israel's gas does not compete with Gazprom, not only for sales to

Europe but more critically to Turkey.

In fact, Russian President Putin has been attempting to involve

Gazprom in developing the Leviathan field. On 19 October 2015,

Putin and Netanyahu agreed for participation of Gazprom in

developing the Leviathan gas reserves.36

34 Caspit, B. (March 16, 2016). Can Israel influence the 'day after' in Syria? Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/iIrVWO 35 Caspit, B. (March 7, 2016). Why Israel needs Putin more than it needs Erdoğan. Al-Monitor. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/TWM3Cw 36 Ellinas, C. (February 28, 2016). Israel-Turkey rapprochement. In-Cyprus. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/h9qTtp

Valdimir Putin, Russian President, and Recep Tayyip Erdoğan,

Turkish President

Source: Sputnik News

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

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Cyprus

A gas deal between Israel and Turkey would require an offshore-

pipeline through Cyprus' EEZ and the incentives may help hasten a

political settlement to Cyprus problem. It should, therefore, be an

incentive to promote such a solution proactively.

However, currently, Cyprus, Israel and Greece have agreed to the

establishment of a gas pipeline from the Aphrodite, Leviathan and

Tamar gas fields to a liquefied natural gas plant in the Vasilikos Power

Station by 2019 and how the two initiatives will develop is unclear.

The Turkish Cypriots would also not like to miss the opportunity to

get their share from gas dollars. The leader of the Turkish Cypriots

(Turkish Republic of Northern Cyprus as Turkey recognize it)

President Mustafa Akinci said Cypriot and Israeli gas could flow to

Turkish and European markets through a pipeline linking a reunified

island with Turkey, about 70 kilometers away. A planned Turkey-

Cyprus electricity cable link would further boost energy ties. "This will

not only be an energy corridor, but a corridor for peace also," Akinci

said.37

Egypt

Michael Kaplan from International Business Times reports that the

Egyptians don't want to see the Turks in the Gaza Strip, and are

strongly opposed to a rapprochement between Jerusalem and

37 Some see gas as boon to Israel, Turkey, Cyprus cooperation. (April 5, 2016). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/fDcHaN

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Ankara.38 Relations between Turkish President Erdoğan and Egyptian

President Al-Sisi are at an all-time low, over different perspectives of

Muslim Brotherhood era. The rivalry between the two Sunni countries

over leadership in the region has a long history and Israel's

rapprochement with Turkey can change the game for Egypt. On the

other hand, Israeli-Egyptian relations are normalized and this time,

Israel can help bridge the gap between Ankara and Cairo.

Iran

Islamic Republic has so far played its card very well in Iraq and

Syria, establishing its influence with both regimes. With its nuclear

deal the country is coming out of decades of embargo and is an

attraction point for Western companies and investment. Turkish-

Israeli rapprochement will influence Iran both in political, military and

economic terms. Iran's gas export to Turkey is an important export

income for that country and rivalry will hurt its price bargaining

chances. Furthermore, a wider Sunni-Israel relationship is something

Tehran will not appreciate. Probably Iranian regime will tread

carefully, in order to avoid Western reactions, but how it will use

proxies is to be followed closely.

38 Kaplan, M. (January 09, 2016). With Turkey-Israel Reconciliation Looming, Egypt Fears Turkish Influence In Gaza Strip. International Business Time. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/k6x3U4

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

22

NATO and the repercussions

As expressed in Wales Summit Declaration of 2014, the growing

instability in NATO's southern neighborhood, from the Middle East

to North Africa is defined as one of the two immediate challenges to

the member states, along with the threats against Eastern Europe.

NATO Leadership is more and more concerned about the challenge

posed by the terrorist organization ISIL as well as violent extremism

and sectarianism across the Middle East and North Africa. ISIL's

advances in Iraq and the Levant risk exporting terrorism to NATO

and Europe.39

At Security and Counter Terror Conference in London, on 19 – 20

April 2016 NATO's

Deputy Assistant

Secretary General for

Emerging Security

Challenges Dr. Jamie

Shea said there is 'justified

concern' that Islamic

State militants are actively

working to obtain

nuclear, radiological and

39 NATO Deputy Secretary General Alexander Vershbow at the conference on NATO-Israel cooperation, La Hulpe, Belgium. (November 17, 2014). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/ML9Qlr

Jens Stoltenberg, Secretary General of NATO, and

Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, Turkish President

Source: Presidency of the Republic of Turkey

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23

biological materials to carry out attacks on Europe. It is also feared

that ISIS has obtained a stockpile of Iraqi short range missiles.40

To better deal with the magnitude of problems and their spillover

potential to its member states, NATO is transforming the Active

Endeavour in the Mediterranean, into a broader security operation,

which can deal with counterterrorism, help dealing with migrant crisis

and ensure freedom of navigation. NATO will increase military

presence in the eastern part of the Alliance and at Warsaw Summit in

July 2016 will make the final decisions about the scale and the scope

this presence.41

Basic rationale for NATO's engagement with Israel is grounded in

sharing same concerns in region's explosive security environment as

source of radicalism, fanaticism and terrorism. Developing closer

cooperation with like-minded nations is an integral part of tackling the

challenges.

Among all these countries, Israel occupies a special place as one of

the most active participants in the Mediterranean Dialogue process

and the first to have concluded an Individual Cooperation Program

with NATO in 2008.

One priority area of the Cooperation Program is the fight against

terrorism, sharing experiences and intelligence. Others include

armaments cooperation, defense research and technology, airspace

40 Perper, R. (April 21, 2016). NATO Security Chiefs Warn of ISIS Plan for Nuclear Attack on Europe. Jerusalem Post. Retrieved from http://goo.gl/s7m3py 41 NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg at joint press point with incoming SACEUR General Curtis Scaparrotti. (May 4, 2016). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/mRKZWq

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

24

management and logistics cooperation. Another promising area for

closer cooperation is in training and education.42

Israel's official representation in NATO and regular attendance to

consultations on security issues is one positive development; but the

more important point is resolution of differences among

members/partners and other consensual governments of the Middle

East and establishment of a wider and abler coalition.

Conclusions

What you have, what you need and what can you do in the absence

of what. This is inventory control. Both Turkey and Israel need the

same thing, that is security and know that they cannot achieve it

without cooperation.

100 years from Sykes-Picot the Middle East is in a chaos. Iraq. Syria,

Yemen and Libya have collapsed. Future of Lebanon is not clear;

Jordan is squeezed under an immense refugee wave. Egypt is trying to

get out of turmoil, but most of the ills of that society are still a threat

to stability, and Sinai Peninsula is a war zone. ISIL is a menace to all

humanity, threatening Turkey from south and Israel from north and a

big Coalition is in operation to neutralize it.

Iran is fighting a proxy war in Yemen and Syria against the Sunni

world. Yet, it is emerging out of "terrorist state" status and even

becoming an "ally" of the West in its campaign against the ISIS. Both

42 NATO Deputy Secretary General Bisogniero opening speech at NATO Public Diplomacy Symposium in Herzliya-Israel. (October 22, 2007). Retrieved from http://goo.gl/FTpRHz

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Turkey and Israel are following how relations between Washington

and Tehran will develop. In Iraq and Syria Sunni-Shia animosities are

rekindled; weapons of ex-Libya are in the hands of radical/terrorist

groups and Europe is facing the biggest refugee wave of the century.

Low oil prices are hurting the Gulf monarchies, when their defense

expenses are skyrocketing. Russia has a naval base and a brand new

airbase in Syria and S-400 missiles are there to stay.

In such a dire environment, NATO and the West in general need

friends and better cooperation between friends. Turkish-Israeli

rapprochement is one-modest good news in the region.

And it is not only Turkey and Israel in this equation. In a region

divided into two fronts along the Shia-Sunni lines, it is imperative for

both countries to develop closer ties with the members of the front

where they feel better and that brings Egypt and Saudi Arabia in to the

epicenter of a potential coalition and also to better cooperation with

NATO.

Lately, Turkey is acting in unison with Qatar and Saudi Arabia and

although not pronounced loudly, Israel and Saudi Arabia are also

closing gaps, as both have Iran as their main rival/opponent.

Israel-Egypt-Saudi Arabia trio will be more complete with Turkey,

which shares the same concerns. It is not wrong to predict that the ice

between Turkey and Egypt could melt in these months.

Turkish-Israeli Rapprochement and The Role of NATO

26

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About the Author

Hasan AYGUN

Former NATO Chief Political Advisor, he has joined the Turkish

Ministry of Foreign Affairs in 1983 and served as diplomat abroad at

various ranks: Vice-Consul in Iraq (1985-1987); First Secretary in Italy

(1987-1990); Charged d'Affairs in Yugoslavia (1992-1994); Counselor

at OSCE (1994-1996); Consul General in Azerbaijan (1997-1998),

Georgia (2000), and Saudi Arabia (2001-2002). During the period

2005-2012, he has been POLAD to the Commander, Allied Joint

Force Command Lisbon, and contributed to NATO’s humanitarian

operations in Pakistan (Kashmir Earthquake) and the U.S. (Hurricane

Katrina). He participated also actively in Operations in

Sudan/Somalia, counter-piracy Operations and support to the African

Union. From August 2012, he is Chief POLAD to the Commander,

Allied Joint Force Command Naples (Italy), and represents the

Command at international events, meetings, NATO's Parliamentary

Assembly, member and partner countries, IO's, NGO’s, think-

tanks/academic-research institutions. Finally, he also gives lectures

and conferences at the AU/UN events, NATO’s education facilities,

academic venues. He authored many classified papers within NATO

on global security, cultural, religion, ethnicity awareness, country case

and conflict resolution studies.

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Ed. Mediterranean Affairs©

www.mediterraneanaffairs.com

Cover image source: Mediterranean Affairs

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