RENEWABLE ENERGY in AMERICA...PV Financing — Commercial Rooftop 25 Photovoltaic Building...
Transcript of RENEWABLE ENERGY in AMERICA...PV Financing — Commercial Rooftop 25 Photovoltaic Building...
RRRREEEENNNNEEEEWWWWAAAABBBBLLLLEEEE EEEENNNNEEEERRRRGGGGYYYY
iiiinnnn AAAAMMMMEEEERRRRIIIICCCCAAAAMichael T. Eckhart
President, Solar International ManagementPresident, American Council On Renewable Energy
2ND World Renewable Energy ForumMay 29-31, 2004Bonn, Germany
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U.S. Energy Consumption by Fuel 2002
Coal 23%
Petroleum 39%
Renewable 6%
Natural Gas 24%
Nuclear 8%
Wind 2%
Biomass 46%
Hydroelectric 46%
Geothermal 5%
Solar <1%
Source: AEO 2004 tables (released in December 2003) based on US energy consumption. Overallbreakdown Table A1 (Total Energy Supply and Disposition),and Renewable breakdown Table A18 (Renewable Energy, Consumption by Section and Source). Source: NREL
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Key Challenges for Energy Supply
FINRES ECON RISK ENVIR
RENEWABLES + 0/- + +
NUCLEAR ? + - +/-
COAL + + - -
NAT GAS - +/? ? +/-
Source: American Council On Renewable Energy, 2003
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Key Challenges for Energy Supply
FINRES ECON RISK ENVIR OVERALL
RENEWABLES + -/+ + + - +
NUCLEAR ? + - +/- - ?
COAL + + - - + -
NAT GAS - +/? ? +/- + ?
Source: American Council On Renewable Energy, 2004
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Petroleum supply, consumption, and imports, 1970-2025(million barrels per day)
Source: DOE/EIA-0383(2003) Annual Energy Outlook
US Oil Imports
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Changes in Atmospheric ConcentrationCO2, CH4, and N20 Ð A Thousand Year History
Source: NREL
Source: IPCC Third Assessment Report (2001)
Atm
osph
eric
con
cent
ratio
n N
2O (
pbb)
310
290
270
2501000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
Atm
osph
eric
con
cent
ratio
n C
O2
(ppm
)
360
340
320
300
280
260
1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000 1000 1200 1400 1600 1800 2000
The Timefor ResponsibleAction is Now
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Renewable Energy in America
Resource Potential
SOLAR ENERGY WIND POWER
GEOTHERMAL
Regional: Renewable Energy Resources Economics PoliticsYields Sate-Based Solutions
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Renewable Portfolio Standards
Non-punitive goals
PA: varies by utility
*NJ : 4.0% by 2008
*CT: 4% by 2008
MA: 4% by 2008WI: 2.2% by 2011
IA: 105 MW
MN: 1,125 MW wind by 2010
TX: 2,880 MW by 2009
*NM: 10% by 2011
*AZ: 1.1%by 2007
CA: 20%by 2017
*NV: 15% by 2013
ME: 30% by 2000
RPS in utility settlements
State RPS
Source: IREC, DSIRE Database
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Public Benefit Funds for Renewables
$127 M
$85 M
$80 M
$22 M
$111 M
$2,048 M
$95 M
$10 M
$234 M
$20 M
RI: $10 M
MA: $383 M
NJ: $279 M
DE: $11 M
CT: $338 M
Cumulative 1998 - 2012
15 State Funds =$3.8B by 2012
Source: IREC, DSIRE Database
10Source: IREC, DSIRE Database
Corporate Tax Credits & Deductions
Multi-technology
UT:10%
Credit$50 K
OK:$0.0050 per
kWh10 yrs. (> 50
MW)RE Fuels/Vehicles
MD:20-30% GB
Credit
NC:35% Credit
$250 K
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Personal Tax Credits
Multi-Technology
NC: 35%$10,500
CA:7.5%
MD: 15%$2,000
NY: 25%$3,750
RE Fuel Vehicles
HI: 20 – 35%
AZ: 25%$1,000
MT: $500
RI: 5%
Source: IREC, DSIRE Database
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Net Metering Rules
State-wide net metering for certainutility typesNet metering offered by one or moreindividual utilities
Net meteringis available in
38 states +D.C.
Source: IREC, DSIRE Database
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PV Grants & Rebates
$3.20
SE-PA:$4/W+
$1/kWh for1 yr.
$5
25%
$3.90/$2.25
$4$5-6
50%
$2 $4-5
( $/W or % of costs)
$5.50
Utility PV RebatesSource: IREC, DSIRE Database
US Wind Energy
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U.S. Wind EnergyU.S. Wind - Installation by Year
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
18001
98
1
19
82
19
83
19
84
19
85
19
86
19
87
19
88
19
89
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
MW
Source: AWEA
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Where? Ð Installations by period by state
1980-1995
Total: 1,493 MW
1996-2003
Total: 4,891 MW
CA(1,413)
TX (35)
MN (35)
> 1000 MW
300 Ð 1000 MW
100 Ð 300 MW
10 Ð 100 MW
TX(1,258)
CA (630)
MN(539)
IA(472)WA
(244)OR(260) WY
(285)CO(223)
NM(207)
KS (114)PA(129)
OK(176)
Source: AWEA
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1980-1995
Kenetech USWP
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500MW
Sales of Wind Turbines in the U.S.
1996-2003
Vestas
Zond
Mitsubishi
Bonus
Gamesa
NEG Micon
Enron Wind GE Wind
0 500 1000 1500 2000 2500
MW
Source: AWEA
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U.S. Major Wind Farm Developers(> 100 MW)
Developer MW installed
¥ FPL Energy 2,583
¥ GE Wind 529
¥ AEP 316
¥ Cielo Wind Power 238
¥ Shell Wind/ Shell Renewables 232
¥ Zikha & Midwest Renewable 154
¥ Edison Capital 123
Source: AWEA
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U.S. Wind Energy
Source: AWEA
U.S. Wind - Cumulative Capacity
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
MW
US Solar PV
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PV Applications
Substation - Sacramento, CACarport - Austin, TX
Grid-Connected with EV Charging
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Example Calculation Ð Simple Payback
Residential Rooftop2.5 kW$8.00/Wac Installed$20,000Best location4,800 kWh/year
PAYBACK (Years)
1. No Incentives 103 Ð 207
2. Net Metering 28 Ð 42
3. 50% Buy-Down 14 Ð 22
4. Tax Abatements 12 Ð 15
5. Green Tags 11 Ð 14
6. Enviro Values 5 - 10
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PV on Commercial Buildings
BIPV - 4 Times Square, NYC
Commercial Rooftop - Boston, MA
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Photovoltaic Building Economics: Comprehensive Perspective
$0$50,000
$100,000$150,000
$200,000$250,000
$300,000$350,000
$400,000$450,000
$500,000$550,000
$600,000$650,000
1 3 5 7 9 11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
31
Ben
efits
in $
State Credit
Depreciation
Fed Tax Credit
Roof Mat'l Value
HVAC Savings
Demand Savings
Energy Savings
8 Year Payback w/ no financing
1 Year payback with 20% down, 80% financing
PV Financing Ð Commercial Rooftop
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Photovoltaic Building Economics: Comprehensive Perspective
$0$50,000
$100,000$150,000
$200,000$250,000
$300,000$350,000
$400,000$450,000
$500,000$550,000
$600,000$650,000
1 3 5 7 9 11
13
15
17
19
21
23
25
27
29
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Ben
efits
in $
State Credit
Depreciation
Fed Tax Credit
Roof Mat'l Value
HVAC Savings
Demand Savings
Energy Savings
8 Year Payback w/ no financing
1 Year payback with 20% down, 80% financing
PV Financing Ð Present Value Driven
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U.S. PV Applications
PV Shipments by Market Sector
0
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,00019
89
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
kWp
Other
Electric Utility
Transportation
Industrial
Government
Commercial
Residential
Source: EIA
US Ethanol Production
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Fuel Ethanol Production
U.S. Fuel Ethanol Production
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
1980
1981
1982
1983
1984
1985
1986
1987
1988
1989
1990
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
Mill
ions
of
gallo
ns
Source: Renewable Fuel Association
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Ethanol Production Capacity by State
> 500 million gallons per year (mgy)
250 Ð 500 mgy
100 Ð 250 mgy
IA 867IL796
NE 537
SD 422
MN392 WI
172
KS 110 MO100
IN95
TN 65
MI45
ND 34
KY 24
NM 15
Total Production Capacity: 3,699 million gallons per year
Source: Renewable Fuel Association 10 Ð 100 mgy
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Major U.S. Fuel Ethanol Producers
Producer State Capacity Share(mgy)
Archer Daniels Midland IL/IA/NE 1,070 32%/MN/ND
Aventine Renewable Energy IL/NE 135 4%Cargill, Inc NE/IA 118 4%VeraSun Energy Corp SD 100 3%New Energy Corp IN 95 3%Abengoa Bioenergy Corp NE/KS/NM 85 3%MGP Ingredients, Inc IL/KS 78 2%A.E. Staley TN 65 2%Chief Ethanol NE 62 2%AGP NE 52 2%
Source: Renewable Fuel Association, May 2004
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U.S. Clean Fuel Requirements
CARB Phase 2 RFG
Federal Oxygenated Fuel
Federal RFG
State Fuel Program
Source: Clean Fuels Development Coalition
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Ethanol Represents Small Sliverof U.S. Petroleum Pie
Billions of Gallons per Year
134.3
Ethanol3.0
Gasoline Ethanol
33LS-CD-b136501
18801860
1500
0
1000
1500
1900 1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060
Surprise
Geothermal
Solar
New Biomass
Wind
Nuclear
Hydro
Gas
Oil & NGL
Coal
TraditionalBiomass
Royal Dutch ShellSustained Growth Scenario
1996
Exa
joul
es
World Energy Supply Scenario
Source: Royal Dutch Shell, 1995.
TODAY
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All Renewables Targets% Total Renewables
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Global Perspectives A3 Germany
Today (Global) IEA World Energy Outlook Ref
Shell Dynamics (Global) European Union
Navigant (Global) Today (US)
Pew Tech Triumphs Policy (US) Aitkin (US)
GHG (Hoffert) GPRA05 EERE (US)
EIA Reference (US)
Source:NREL
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All Renewables Targets Commitment% Total Renewables
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Global Perspectives A3 Germany
Today (Global) IEA World Energy Outlook Ref
Shell Dynamics (Global) European Union
Navigant (Global) Today (US)
Pew Tech Triumphs Policy (US) Aitkin (US)
GHG (Hoffert) GPRA05 EERE (US)
EIA Reference (US)
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American Council On Renewable Energy
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ACOREÕs Convening Role
¥ ÒRenewable Energy in AmericaÓÐ Annual ConferenceÐ National policyÐ July 2003, Washington DC
¥ ÒPower-Gen Renewable EnergyÓÐ Trade showÐ Customer focusedÐ JV with Pennwell CommunicationsÐ Las Vegas and OrlandoÐ March 1-3, 2004, Las Vegas
¥ ÒRenewable Energy FinanceForumÓ
Ð High level finance conferenceÐ JV with EuromoneyÐ June 23-24, 2004, New York City
ACOREÕs Organizing Conference, July 2002
Jim Woolsey and Boyden Gray Amory Lovins
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Renewable Energy FinanceForum Ð Wall Street June
23-24, 2004New York City
Keynote:George E Pataki, Governor ofNew YorkSean Harrigan, President,CalPERS
Sessions on:Corporate commitmentsProject debtProject equityCarbon financeVenture capitalInstitutional investorsPublic policy driversGreen building finance
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Additional Information
American Council On Renewable Energy
Michael Eckhart, PresidentTelephone: 01-202-429-2030
Rob Pratt, ChairmanKen Locklin, Co-Chair, Finance Committee
Wolfgang Palz, Co-Chair, International CommitteeJudy Siegel, Co-Chair, International Committee
Peter Varadi, Liaison to International Advisory Board
www.AmericanRenewables.org