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Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
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Transcript of Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in BulgariaPart I: history + new RES law
Part II: price impact
Sebastian Noethlichs
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Part I: history + new RES law
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• What happened?
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
BG max load7000 MW
Operating300 MW
Installed 500 MW
Licensed 1673 MW
‘Planned’14000 MW
Realistically:2000 – 3000 MW by 2020
Pre-Contracted3285 MW
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• What happened?
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Result– Overburdening of authorities– Reaching of technical capacity– Fear of ‘overshooting the target’
Political backlash
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Political Backlash– Existential threats and uncertainties• Agricultural land ban threat to regional existence
• New renewable energy law increased development risk
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
All Agricultural Land 66,143 km2
Unused Land 7,800 km2
Category 1 - 4 Land 31,593 km2
Land for Renewable Energy 5.3 km²
100%12%
48%
0.02%
• Agricultural Land Ban
– Artificial obstruction– Threat to vast majority of projects under
development– Virtual freeze in North-Eastern region
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• New Renewable Energy law– Shorter terms of feed-in tariff
– Frequent changes increase market risk– 12 years is second lowest in the EU
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
Solar
Wind
25 years
15 years
20 years
12 years
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• New Renewable Energy law– Tariffs fixed for entire term– Tariff = 70 % retail price + premium– No more restrictions to downward revision
Mixed implications
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• New Renewable Energy law
– Good for PV not for wind– Retro-activity endangers existing projects
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
Total
New FITBase
Premium
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• New Renewable Energy Law
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
wind potential operationEIA
land rights land use
engineering
permitting construction
connectionwind potential operationEIA
land rights land use
engineering
permitting construction
connection
capa
city
al
loca
tion
connectionpre-payment
• Annual capacity allowances
• 2,500 EUR/MW• Non-refundable
• 25,000 EUR/MW• Non-refundable
max. 1 year
allocation risk
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
operation
construction
connection
connectionpre-payment
• 25,000 EUR/MW• Non-refundable
Financial CloseCosts fixed
Fixing of tariffIncome fixed
tariff risk
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Summary– more restrictions, more state control– Increased development risk– More speculation and higher costs– Less investment
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Kehrtwende statt Energiewende
U-turn to the past instead of turning to the future
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Part II: price impact
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Wind Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Месечен разход на домакинствоСобствена зелена енергия или внос през 2020
45.67 лева
+0.28 лева
+47.00 лева
+13.25 лева
-1 %
Средна месечнасметка за
ток
750 MW вятърна енергия
2 500 MW вятърна енергия
Непостигане нацелите на ЕСс 1 % за 2011
Непостигане целите на ЕС при липса на нови
вятърни и слънчеви мощности за 2020
+0.92 лева
45.95 лева 46.59 лева 58.92 лева 92.67 лева
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
The price of risk?
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
NPP Fukushima Evacuation Zone – 30 km
Recommended Evacuation Zone – 80 km
Distance of permanent prohibited zones from Chernobyl NPP – 250 km
NPP Belene planned location
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
And if we still have time:a small case study for the future
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Assumption1) Marginal production cost of electricity
varies
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Assumption1) Marginal production cost of electricity
varies2) Load/consumption varies throughout the
day
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
Load on 3rd Wednesday of April (GW)
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Assumption1) Marginal production cost of electricity
varies2) Load/consumption varies throughout the
day3) Power prices (spot) vary with load
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Assumption1) Marginal production cost of electricity
varies2) Load/consumption varies throughout the
day3) Power prices (spot) vary with load4) In liberalized markets power prices (spot)
vary with load
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Wind energy1) Wind energy production varies throughout
the day
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Wind energy1) Wind energy production varies throughout
the day2) Wind energy variation follows daily patterns
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Result1) Load and wind energy are driven by a
common parameter (the sun)
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
Load on 3rd Wednesday of April (GW)
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Result1) Load and wind energy are driven by a
common parameter (the sun)2) The co-variation of load and wind energy
can save money
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
• Conclusion1) Liberalization of the energy market is good,
because it leads to real prices2) Liberalization allows us to realize the cost
saving potential of wind energy
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria
To contact the author: Sebastian Noethlichs in Sofia at [email protected]
Thank you for your attention!
1 Kuzman Shapkarev StreetSofia, 1000
Bulgaria
Renewable Energy in Bulgaria