Renewable Energy Directive

Øyvind Vessia

Policy Officer

European Commission, DG Energy – Renewables and CCS Policy

Content

• The Renewable Energy Directive

• The biofuel debate

• The biomass debate (for heating and electricity)

Targets for renewable energy have worked

Renewable sources accounted for 13% of the EU's energy consumption in 2011

Sou

rce:

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German PV

Content

• The Renewable Energy Directive

• The biofuel debate

• The biomass debate (for heating and electricity)

NREAPs: Technology breakdown in the transport sector towards 2020

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2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

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2nd generation

Hydrogen

Other Biofuels

Electricity in transport

Bioethanol

BiodieselBiodiesel

Bioethanol

What land resources do we have?

Other land[31 Mill Km2]

Cropland [12 Mill Km2]

Pasture[12 Mill Km2]

Savannah[31 Mill Km2]

Forest[40 Mill Km2]

Cropland[12 Mill Km2]

IFPRI result: 0.017 Mill Km2 (1.7 Mha), equal to 0.14 % of existing cropland

World’s available land: 126 Mill Km2

Biofuels is not the only user of land:Cropland increases 20 times more in the baseline (BAU) than what is caused by the biofuel demand (34 Mha)

EU total vegetable oil trade and biodiesel production

Source: Figure 18 of IFPRI-report

Feedstock specific results

Vegetable oils

Cereals and sugars

Commission's proposal

• 1) Limit to incentives for 1st gen biofuels (5%), effectively creating a gap between 5% and 10%

• 2) Increased incentives for renewable fuels that do not use land for its production (Annex IX) through quadruple accounting (which is flexible)

• 3) Reporting of ILUC-estimates

Content

• The Renewable Energy Directive

• The biofuel debate

• The biomass debate (for heating and electricity)

Technology Results from the National Renewable Energy Action Plans

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Heat pumps

Biomass

Wind

Tide, wave, ocean

Solar

Geothermal

Hydro

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Renewable energy outlook(source: National Renewable Energy Action Plans)

Bioenergy: key role to achieve 20% target

The forest cycle

Thinning

Ashrecycling

Thinning

Timber harvest

Harvest of residues

Regeneration

Pre-commercial thinning

The forest sector response to bioenergy demand is complex and varying depending on forest properties, existing industrial structure and governance structure. The outcome for forest C stocks is determined by the sum of all changes in management and harvest regime that are introduced.

A B

A and B denote two possible cases of forest bioenergy accounting. ’Project A’ would clearly appear to be much more favourable for the climate than ‘project B’ in an evaluation that narrowly considers a distinct forest bioenergy project (either A or B) and that uses a relatively short time horizon. Yet, both ‘project A’ and ‘project B’ are components of the same forest management regime that have undisputable net substitution benefits.

Closing the bioenergy markets for individual forest operations, due to GHG performance below some threshold level, is problematic since the different operations often presupposes each other. For example, if energetic use of small stems from thinning operations is not possible then forest owners have little incentive to shift to higher density planting and there will in general be reduced incentive for thinning operations improving stand conditions.

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Fossil fuel use 1750-2006

Land use change 1850-2005

50% probability of staying below 2 °C

75% probability of staying below 2 °C

Remaining emission space up to 2050

Fossil fuel use since mid 1970s

The concept of GHG emission space, which focuses on accumulated emissions up to a given year, is relevant in relation to temperature targets since the peak warming appears to be insensitive to the CO2 emissions pathway, i.e., timing of emissions or peak emission rate

One critical strategic question is how society should use the remaining space for GHG emissions

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Some of the emission space might be required for developing a bioenergy industry capable of providing renewable and climate friendly energy services for the world on a long term

Unless they are very high, forest C stock losses do not automatically disqualify bioenergy options from being part of a long term solution to the climate problem

Remaining emission space Fill it up with

fossil carbon

...or use some space for

developing alternatives to

fossil fuels?

Bioenergy development

Non-fossil fuel related Non-fossil fuel related

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Conclusion

• The Renewable Energy Directive – a success

• Biofuel debate on-going with the co-legislators in the Parliament and the Council • Complex but emotional• Food vs. fuel?• GHG savings?

• Biomass debate on-going• Carbon accounting• Energy system development

Thank you for your attention

• Oyvind.VESSIA@ec.europa.eu

• Renewable Energy:• http://ec.europa.eu/energy/renewables/index_en.

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